Search

Decision prediction based on neurophysiological signals is of great application value in many real‐life situations, especially in human–AI collaboration or counteraction. Single‐trial analysis of electroencephalogram (EEG) signals is a very valuable step in the development of an online decision‐prediction system. However, previous EEG‐based decision‐prediction methods focused mainly on averaged EEG signals of all decision‐making trials to predict an individual's general decision tendency (e.g., risk seeking or aversion) over a period rather than on a specific decision response in a single trial. In the present study, we used a rock–paper–scissors game, which is a common multichoice decision‐making task, to explore how to predict participants' single‐trial choice with EEG signals. Forty participants, comprising 20 females and 20 males, played the game with a computer player for 330 trials. Considering that the decision‐making process of this game involves multiple brain regions and neural networks, we proposed a new algorithm named common spatial pattern‐attractor metagene (CSP‐AM) to extract CSP features from different frequency bands of EEG signals that occurred during decision making. The results showed that a multilayer perceptron classifier achieved an accuracy significantly exceeding the chance level among 88.57% (31 of 35) of participants, verifying the classification ability of CSP features in multichoice decision‐making prediction. We believe that the CSP‐AM algorithm could be used in the development of proactive AI systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on the Institute for Supply Management's quarterly forecast, which predicts spending increases for printing and paper manufacturing. It mentions the forecast indicates that manufacturing and services sectors are expected to experience revenue growth, while capital expenditures and prices paid for raw materials are projected to increase.

The problem of emission control in chemical fiber industry and construction of multifactor model of pollution index prediction is studied. A neural network method that makes it possible to derive regularities of a unidimensional series for PM 2.5 and simultaneously determine the influence of a set of factors of weather conditions is described. To reduce the complexity of the model, instead of the range of factors of influence, its main components are used. The interconnection of the number of factors of influence, depth of retrospective sampling, type and scale of neural network, and accuracy of prediction is studied. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The thin-walled tubular deployable composite boom (DCB) can realize folding and deploying functions, and it has a good application prospect in space field. This paper investigates the folding behaviour of the tubular DCB by analytical modeling. Based on the Archimedes' helix, the geometrical model of the DCB was established. By combining equilibrium equation and energy principle, an analytical model to predicted the folding moment versus rotational displacement of the DCB was presented. The failure indices in the equal-sense and opposite-sense folding processes were calculated utilizing Tsai‐Hill and maximum stress criteria. Analytical results agreed well with experimental and numerical results. At last, the influence of geometric parameters (i.e., radius, central angle and thickness of cross-section) on the folding behaviour of the DCB was further studied using the analytical model. [Display omitted] • An analytical model is presented to predict the folding behaviour of the deployable composite boom (DCB). • Failure indices are calculated using two criteria in equal-sense and opposite-sense folding processes. • The analytical model is validated against experimental and numerical results, showing good prediction accuracy. • Geometric parameters (radius, central angle, and thickness) significantly affect the folding behavior of the DCB. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Paper, a porous-fibrous network, is made up of hydrophilic fibres, which are notably susceptible to deformations due to variations in moisture content. The response of paper sheets to full or partial wetting, based on the water-induced fibre swelling, has mostly been predicted in the past using highly idealised two-dimensional network geometries. The purpose of the present paper is to establish how precisely the two-stage process of determining effective hygro-expansivity under uniform wetting by a two-dimensional model followed by bending analysis using a continuum model predicts the curl of a fully three-dimensional network. In the present multi-scale modelling work, the moisture-induced homogenised sheet scale curl, derived from hygro-elastic deformations using non-uniform moisture profiles, is analysed based on an idealised non-woven three-dimensional fibrous network finite element model. First, the effective paper sheet swelling properties, derived computationally for the uniform wetting condition, are compared with analytically homogenised hygro-elastic properties. Whereas the analytically predicted elastic modulus has an inaccuracy of only ∼ 5%, the hygro-expansivity coefficient is over-predicted by roughly a third for a network with straight fibres. The difference is smaller if waviness of the fibres and wrap-around in the fibre bonds are taken into account. Fibre alignment turns out to have little influence. Subsequently, paper sheet curl predictions made by the analytical model are compared with that computed from the three-dimensional network model. The inaccuracy of the fully analytical model, based on the two-dimensional network description, relative to the fully detailed three-dimensional computational model with straight fibres is on the order of 40%–50%. The fidelity of the simple model is primarily constrained by the inaccuracy of the effective hygro-expansion coefficient. If the expansivity extracted from the three-dimensional simulations under uniform wetting is inserted, the inaccuracy drops to less than 10%. The continuum bending description hence performs adequately, provided it is based on a reliable estimation of the uniform expansion behaviour of the material. • Hygroscopic curl of paper sheets may be predicted using homogenised models. • We assess the accuracy of such predictions. • As a reference simulations of an idealised three-dimensional fibre network are used. • The predictions are accurate provided an accurate hygro-expansivity is used. • Two-dimensional network models may not be sufficient for this. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mathematical modelling is a powerful tool in science. Causal mathematical models based on a clear picture of how key variables interact enable a deeper understanding of a given situation and provide reliable predictions. This is a classic approach in science. Unfortunately, this approach is declining in pulp and paper-related research in favour of simply reporting experimental data. The lack of a framework provided by a model diminishes the value of much experimental work. Therefore, the increased use of mathematical models is encouraged, and this approach is illustrated via several practical examples from our work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The biochemical activity inside a cell has recently been suggested to act as a source of hydrodynamic fluctuations that can speed up or slow down enzyme catalysis [Tripathi et al., Commun. Phys. 5, 101 (2022).] The idea has been tested against and largely corroborated by simulations of activated barrier crossing in a simple fluid in the presence of thermal and athermal noise. The present paper attempts a wholly analytic solution to the same noise-driven barrier crossing problem but generalizes it to include viscoelastic memory effects of the kind likely to be present in cellular interiors. A calculation of the model's barrier crossing rate, using Kramers' flux-over-population formalism, reveals that in relation to the case where athermal noise is absent, athermal noise always accelerates barrier crossing, though the extent of enhancement depends on the duration τ0 over which the noise acts. More importantly, there exists a critical τ0—determined by the properties of the medium—at which Kramers' theory breaks down and, on approach to which, the rate grows significantly. The possibility of such a giant enhancement is potentially open to experimental validation using optically trapped nanoparticles in viscoelastic media that are acted on by externally imposed colored noise. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate monitoring of insulation aging of oil-paper insulation power equipment such as oil-immersed transformers is a key and difficult point in the field of high voltage research. In this paper, a method based on Raman spectroscopy to diagnose the aging degree of oil-paper insulation is discussed. Raman detections of the samples were carried out on a self-built Raman detection platform. The partial least squares method was used to extract and analyze the spectral features. The aging time of the sample was used to supervise the feature extraction of oil-paper insulation Raman data, and the intrinsic mathematical relationship between the Raman features of oil-paper insulation and the aging was excavated. Finally, a quantitative aging diagnostic model based on Raman spectral features of oil-paper insulation to predict its aging state was built with the assistance of the support vector regression method. The results of aging time prediction for 30 test samples show that the mean square error is 0.0123 and the square of correlation coefficient is 0.987. The proposed method provides a new idea for Raman aging diagnosis of oil-paper insulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The condition assessment of oil–paper insulation is a vital issue in transformer management. To investigate the effect of moisture content on the accuracy of the prediction model, accelerated ageing experiments were performed with different initial moisture content (IMC) in laboratory condition. Two types of multi-parameter lifetime prediction models, e.g. with and without consideration of IMC, were presented for comparison purpose. The authors found that a better accuracy for its prediction results could be achieved by establishing the prediction models with the consideration of IMC. Besides, models considering IMC have better economic feasibility than that without considering IMC(non-IMC) as its total cost is cheaper according to life cycle cost (LCC) calculations. In addition, failure probability based on the proposed prediction models was also calculated as a direct indicator for evaluating the oil–paper insulation status. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Process-monitoring laboratories in the pulp and paper industry generally use a combination of wet chemical analyses and physical measurements to certify the fitness of a production pulp for a specific end-use. These laboratory tests require time and the effort of trained personnel, limiting their utility for real-time process control. Here we show that Raman probes of unrefined cellulosic pulps, well-suited to the online measurement of in-process materials, can predict the quality attributes of manufactured papers. The accuracy of prediction improves when the covariance is modelled in a reduced measurement space selected by a data-driven, feature-selection technique referred to as a Template Oriented Genetic Algorithm (TOGA). TOGA, combined with discrete wavelet transform (DWT), isolates functional-group features that correlate best with mechanical properties paper derived from refined pulp. Paper makers refine market pulps to build sheet strength using a beating process that decreases freeness as it increases fibre-fibre bonding. Methods demonstrated here predict manufactured sheet properties obtainable after any specified degree of refining from the Raman spectrum of an unrefined pulp. This analysis capacity will enable both vendors of market pulp and makers of sheet paper to specify in advance the amount of beating required to produce a desired product, thereby saving cost and conserving resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The power transformer is an important part of the power grid. The aging of oil-paper insulation is affected by many factors such as temperature and moisture. In order to accurately evaluate the service life of transformer and ensure the stable operation in power system, a method for predicting the lifetime of oil-immersed pressboard under different temperatures and moisture content was proposed. This method is mainly realized by the chemical reaction kinetic equations and transformation factor. Firstly, the effect of temperature and moisture content on the frequency dielectric response of oil-paper insulation was studied by frequency domain dielectric spectroscopy method. The results show that the dielectric loss of oil-immersed pressboard increases with the increase of moisture content and temperature. The activation energy of oil-immersed pressboard also increases exponentially with the increase of moisture content. Then, we analyzed the trend of polymerization degree of insulation pressboard in aging process and calculated the insulation life and the remain lifetime by combining the cellulose degradation kinetic models and translation factor. When the moisture content of the oil-immersed at 70 °C, the life expectancy of oil-paper insulation is about 19.26 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We enjoyed reading Professor Efron's (Brad) paper just as much as we enjoyed listening to his June 2019 lecture in Leiden. Interestingly, Efron puts the pure predictive algorithms to the test in a scenario where the sample size is extremely moderate by today's standards ( I n i = 102). In the knockoff framework, one can use I any i black-box (any predictive model) to identify any kind possible association - linear or not - between a large set of explanatory variables HT ht and an outcome I Y i . This framework rigorously tests whether the conditional distribution HT ht actually depends on any of the variables I X SB j sb i without assuming any model for how I X i and I Y i are connected (Candès et al. 2018). [Extracted from the article]

Nests of independent-founding primitively eusocial paper wasps are founded by one or a few females. Before worker emergence, foundresses must forage, sometimes leaving the nest unattended. Chemical defence - the application of ant repellent secretions of the Van der Vecht organ (VdVO) on the nest surface - allows brood protection when active defence is weak or not possible. After worker emergence, it is more likely that some wasps stay in the nest, so active nest defence may be more common. Given this constraint on the nest defence, selection for increasing the cuticular secretory area of the VdVO, to improve chemical defence, may be stronger in foundresses (queens) than in workers - morphological castes are hypothesized to evolve. We investigated the occurrence of morphological castes in the Neotropical paper wasp Mischocyttarus. Confirming our prediction, we found that in some (but not all) species, foundresses have a distinct increase in the secretory area of the VdVO in relation to workers; even though there is a strong overlap between caste phenotypes (incipient morphological castes). Implications of these findings for the evolution of morphological castes in primitively eusocial wasps are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Here we study the physical problem in which a thin bar, such as a strip of paper, is bent under several types of loads and boundary conditions. Initially, we consider lengthwise compression of the strip due to concentrated forces applied on its ends. We present this problem for the three boundary conditions: doubly-clamped, hinged–clamped, and doubly-hinged ends constrained on a flat surface. We also consider both analytically and experimentally the problems of distributed loading such as the heavy cantilever and the post-buckling heavy column. We find the equations that govern the shapes of the bent strips via a minimization flow of the bending energy. In all cases, we find that photographically-captured profiles agree very well with the theoretical predictions. We also validate the theory with measurements of the deflection of the middle or the tip of the strip as its length is varied. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The task of predicting the interactions between drugs and targets plays a key role in the process of drug discovery. There is a need to develop novel and efficient prediction approaches in order to avoid costly and laborious yet not-always-deterministic experiments to determine drug–target interactions (DTIs) by experiments alone. These approaches should be capable of identifying the potential DTIs in a timely manner. In this article, we describe the data required for the task of DTI prediction followed by a comprehensive catalog consisting of machine learning methods and databases, which have been proposed and utilized to predict DTIs. The advantages and disadvantages of each set of methods are also briefly discussed. Lastly, the challenges one may face in prediction of DTI using machine learning approaches are highlighted and we conclude by shedding some lights on important future research directions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Traffic flow prediction plays a critical role in urban traffic management and planning. Accurate prediction of traffic flow can enhance traffic efficiency, improve traffic safety, conserve traffic resources, and promote sustainable urban development. Graph convolutional networks (GCN) have great potential in traffic flow prediction due to their ability to handle complex data with topological structures while considering spatial relationships between nodes in data. However, it is difficult for the traditional GCN-based models to capture dynamic spatiotemporal dependencies between the stations since these models usually use static relationship graph in GCN. This paper presents an enhanced approach called the coupled generative graph convolution model (CGGCN) for capturing dynamic regional traffic relationships. The CGGCN learns the adjacency matrix of graph convolution in a generative manner, thereby improving the ability of previous graph convolution models to effectively capture the dynamic relationships of regional traffic within multi-layer structures. Additionally, the paper optimizes the fusion method of coupling graph convolution in multi-level matrix feature flow information aggregation, leading to the efficient extraction of spatiotemporal information. To validate the effectiveness of the proposed model, extensive experiments were conducted on two real traffic datasets obtained from New York, namely NYCBike and NYCTaxi. The results demonstrate the superior performance of the CGGCN model when compared to other eight baseline models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes some statistical tests for comparing the predictive performance of two or more prediction rules. It covers the cases of both quantitative and qualitative predictions, that is, both regression and classification problems. Worked examples are included for both cases. This paper describes some statistical tests for comparing the predictive performance of two or more prediction rules. It covers the cases of both quantitative and qualitative predictions, that is, both regression and classification problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the continuous advancement of sensing technology, applying large amounts of sensor data to practical prediction processes using artificial intelligence methods has become a developmental direction. In sensing images and remote sensing meteorological data, the dynamic changes in the prediction targets relative to their background information often exhibit more significant dynamic characteristics. Previous prediction methods did not specifically analyze and study the dynamic change information of prediction targets at spatiotemporal multi-scale. Therefore, this paper proposes a neural prediction network based on perceptual multi-scale spatiotemporal dynamic changes (PMSTD-Net). By designing Multi-Scale Space Motion Change Attention Unit (MCAU) to perceive the local situation and spatial displacement dynamic features of prediction targets at different scales, attention is ensured on capturing the dynamic information in their spatial dimensions adequately. On this basis, this paper proposes Multi-Scale Spatiotemporal Evolution Attention (MSEA) unit, which further integrates the spatial change features perceived by MCAU units in higher channel dimensions, and learns the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics at different scales, effectively predicting the dynamic characteristics and regularities of targets in sensor information.Through experiments on spatiotemporal prediction standard datasets such as Moving MNIST, video prediction dataset KTH, and Human3.6m, PMSTD-Net demonstrates prediction performance surpassing previous methods. We construct the GPM satellite remote sensing precipitation dataset, demonstrating the network's advantages in perceiving multi-scale spatiotemporal dynamic changes in remote sensing meteorological data. Finally, through extensive ablation experiments, the performance of each module in PMSTD-Net is thoroughly validated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A Partially linear mixed effects model relating a response Y to predictors $ (X,Z,T) $ (X,Z,T) with the mean function $ X^{T}\beta +Zb+g(T) $ XTβ+Zb+g(T) is considered in this paper. When the parametric parts' variable X are measured with additive error and there is ill-conditioned data suffering from multicollinearity, a new kernel two-parameter prediction method using the kernel ridge and Liu regression approach is suggested. The kernel two parameter estimator of β and the predictor of b are derived by modifying the likelihood and Henderson methods. Matrix mean square error comparisons are calculated. We also demonstrate that under suitable conditions, the resulting estimator of β is asymptotically normal. The situation with an unknown measurement error covariance matrix is handled. A Monte Carlo simulation study, together with an earthquake data example, is compiled to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed approach at the end of the paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the high yield of many wells represented by Well JT1 in the Maokou Formation, has catalyzed a surge in exploration activities along the platform margin facies of the Maokou Formation in central Sichuan and further showed the significant exploration potential of the Maokou Formation in the northern slope. However, the fracture cave body of the Maokou Formation exhibits a high degree of development, strong longitudinal and horizontal heterogeneity, large formation pressure differences, and drilling events such as gas kicks and lost circulation occur frequently, which seriously affects the efficient implementation of drilling. Understanding the spatial distribution of the three-pressure in the formation can help better deal with and solve the above problems. Therefore, in order to help the safe, high-quality and rapid drilling of the Maokou Formation in the study area, and enhance the efficiency of oil and gas development, this paper explores the research on the prediction method of the three-pressure of jointing well-seismic data based on the geomechanical experimental data and the actual drilling data. In the process of prediction of pore pressure, this study found that the pore pressure and formation velocity in the study area have an exponential relationship. In order to enhance the applicability of the Filippone's method in the study area and improve the prediction accuracy of pore pressure, the linear relationship between pore pressure and formation velocity in the Filippone's method is modified to an exponential relationship, and a pore pressure prediction model suitable for the work area was established. Based on the Mohr–Coulomb criterion and Huang's model, the prediction models of collapse pressure and fracture pressure applicable to the study area were established, respectively. Then, the elastic parameters were obtained through pre-stack inversion, and the three-pressure bodies were calculated based on the elastic parameter bodies. The results indicate that: (1) The three-pressure prediction method of the jointing well-seismic data in this paper can predict the formation's longitudinal and transverse pressure anomaly zones in advance. (2) The Maokou Formation in the study area is characterized by abnormally high pressure, to balance the pressure of the high-ground formation, high-density drilling fluid is necessary. (3) The prediction results of three-pressure in this paper are highly consistent with the actual drilling engineering events, which verifies the reliability of the three-pressure prediction results presented in this study. The results of the study can provide a basis for decision-making in drilling geological design, such as the determination of drilling fluid density, the evaluation of borehole stability and other engineering problems that require support from three-pressure data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes an interpretation of Aristotle's understanding of tyche (τύχη), a Greek term that can be alternatively translated as luck, fortune, or fate. The paper disentangles various threads of argument in the primary sources to argue for a realist understanding of what we moderns call "luck." In short, it contends that Aristotle's account of these issues is mostly correct and merits close attention when canvassing recent philosophical debates about luckology. Aristotle argues that science pertains to the general rule; it is not about the particular. Particular events have contingent content that exceeds the scope of science. Even if we could predict all future events with ultimate accuracy, we would still be left wondering why good or bad things happen to specific people. Although luck is not a scientific category, it has an existential reality that leaves momentous events open to metaphysical and even religious interpretation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate forecasting of electric vehicle (EV) load is essential for grid stability and energy management. EV load forecasting is influenced by multiple factors. At present, the load forecasting model for EVs mainly uses collected sample data to build a data‐driven model. But these algorithms need to collect all the data together to train the model, ignoring the privacy of each data collection source. In a competitive market environment, each device service provider is not willing to share the sample data they store. Aiming at this problem, this paper proposes an EV load diagnosis algorithm considering data privacy. Firstly, a convolutional neural network with dual attention mechanism is constructed as the basic time series forecasting model. The association rule algorithm is used to select weather data with strong associations as the inputs of the model. Each service provider uses local data to perform deep learning network. All models are then trained using a federated learning framework. During the entire training process, historical data is stored locally, and only model parameter information is shared and interacted; thus data privacy is protected. Finally, the validity of the algorithm in this paper is verified by using real collected EV load data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates dynamic interactive patterns of the dry bulk shipping markets through the lens of structural vector autoregression (VAR) models. There are two distinct hypotheses in the extant literature. One is that asymmetry between spot and forward freight agreement (FFA) markets causes FFA prices to respond more rapidly to new information than spot prices, termed the Physical-Paper Hypothesis in this paper. The other hypothesis is that there are some diverse shocks with different propagation mechanisms, termed the Shock-Diversity Hypothesis. This paper combines these two seemingly separate hypotheses at one time in two illustrative structural VAR models, based on a dataset of weekly spot, FFA, and time charter (TC) rates in the dry bulk shipping markets. The two structural VAR models show that spot, FFA, and TC rates have different, particularly dynamic responses to identified permanent shocks. Furthermore, they show that the reduced-form tri-variate FFA-Spot-TC VAR model produces more accurate forecasts of future spot rates than the bi-variate FFA-Spot and TC-Spot VAR models. Therefore, market participants can use VAR models as an information-processing tool for understanding of (e.g. data descriptions and structural inferences), and forecasting in, dry bulk shipping markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The issue of pensions has become increasingly topical. This paper presents the ordered weighted averaging real average pension (OWARAP) operator. The OWARAP operator is based on the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operator and calculates the future average retirement benefit taking into account price changes. Moreover, this work extends the OWARAP operator by using order-inducing variables, generalized means, and probabilities. This paper ends by analyzing the applicability of the OWARAP operator and its extensions in forecasting the real average Social Security benefits for retired workers in each state of the United States (U.S.). The results demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed approach in retirement decision making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nowadays, accurate and efficient short-term traffic flow forecasting plays a critical role in intelligent transportation systems (ITS). However, due to the fact that traffic flow is susceptible to factors such as weather and road conditions, traffic flow data tend to exhibit dynamic uncertainty and nonlinearity, making the construction of a robust and reliable forecasting model still a challenging task. Aiming at this nonlinear and complex traffic flow forecasting problem, this paper constructs a short-term traffic flow forecasting hybrid optimization model, SSA-ELM, based on extreme learning machine by embedding the sparrow search algorithm in order to solve the above problem. Extreme learning machine has been widely used in short-term traffic flow forecasting due to its characteristics such as low computational complexity and fast learning speed. By using the sparrow search algorithm to optimize the input weight values and hidden layer deviations in the extreme learning machine, the sparrow search algorithm is utilized to search for the global optimal solution while taking into account the original characteristics of the extreme learning machine, so that the model improves stability while increasing prediction accuracy. Experimental results on the Amsterdam A10 road traffic flow dataset show that the traffic flow forecasting model proposed in this paper has higher forecasting accuracy and stability, revealing the potential of hybrid optimization models in the field of short-term traffic flow forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The traditional method for retrieving cloud optical thickness (COT) is carried out through a Look-Up Table (LUT). Researchers must make a series of idealized assumptions and conduct extensive observations and record features in this scenario, consuming considerable resources. The emergence of deep learning effectively addresses the shortcomings of the traditional approach. In this paper, we first propose a daytime (SOZA < 70°) COT retrieval algorithm based on FY-4A AGRI. We establish and train a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) model for COT retrieval, CM4CR, with the CALIPSO's COT product spatially and temporally synchronized as the ground truth. Then, a deep learning method extended from video prediction models is adopted to predict COT values based on the retrieval results obtained from CM4CR. The COT prediction model (CPM) consists of an encoder, a predictor, and a decoder. On this basis, we further incorporated a time embedding module to enhance the model's ability to learn from irregular time intervals in the input COT sequence. During the training phase, we employed Charbonnier Loss and Edge Loss to enhance the model's capability to represent COT details. Experiments indicate that our CM4CR outperforms existing COT retrieval methods, with predictions showing better performance across several metrics than other benchmark prediction models. Additionally, this paper also investigates the impact of different lengths of COT input sequences and the time intervals between adjacent frames of COT on prediction performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The operational stability of a power transformer exerts an extremely important impact on the power symmetry, balance, and security of power systems. When the grid load fluctuates greatly, if the load factor of the transformer cannot be maintained within a reasonable range, it leads to increased instability in grid operation. Adjusting the transformer capacity based on load changes is of great significance. The existing control methods for on-load capacity-regulating (OLCR) transformers have low timeliness, and the daily switching frequency of the capacity-regulating switch is not controlled. To ensure the safe and stable operation of transformers, this paper proposes a control method for OLCR transformers based on load prediction and fuzzy control. Firstly, the operating principle of OLCR transformers is analyzed, and a multi-strategy enhanced dung beetle optimizer (MSDBO) combined with a CNN−LSTM model is proposed for load forecasting. On this basis, the daily switching frequency of the capacity-regulating transformer is introduced, and hesitant fuzzy control is used to select the optimal capacity-regulating strategy relying on three factors: loss, economy, and switching frequency. Finally, simulation models are constructed using the MATLAB/SIMULINK platform and simulation analysis is conducted to verify the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed control method. For the three scenarios in this paper, the method reduces daily power loss by 28.5% to 56.3% and daily operating costs by 25.4% to 50.8%. The method used in this paper can sacrifice 3.5% to 9.2% of the loss reduction capability in exchange for reducing the number of switch operations by 28.6% to 57.1%, significantly extending the lifespan of the switches and thereby increasing the operational lifespan of the transformer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, the rapid development of photovoltaic (PV) power generation has led to an increased focus on accurate forecasting of PV power output. Interval forecasting, which provides uncertainty measurement information for forecasting results, has become a hot research topic in this field. However, the accuracy of single models or traditional multi-model forecasting methods is often insufficient for meeting the forecasting requirements. In addition, interval forecasting places higher demands on the learning and generalization capabilities of forecasting models. To address these issues, this paper proposes an intelligent multi-model forecasting method based on output features clustering and convolutional neural network–long short term memory (CNN–LSTM) for PV power interval forecasting. First, multiple feature indices are constructed to represent the differences in PV output features for different months. The intelligent clustering method is then employed to achieve the multi-model clustering for forecasting model. Finally, CNN–LSTM is utilized to implement the PV power interval forecasting. The combination of CNN and LSTM effectively improves the modeling accuracy of the intelligent forecasting model. Based on actual data from PV power stations, the method described in this paper narrows down the forecasting interval compared with the single model, reducing prediction interval normalized average width by more than 4%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The peer review process is the main academic resource to ensure that science advances and is disseminated. To contribute to this important process, classification models were created to perform two tasks: the review score prediction (RSP) and the paper decision prediction (PDP). But what challenges prevent us from having a fully efficient system responsible for these tasks? And how far are we from having an automated system to take care of these two tasks? To answer these questions, in this work, we evaluated the general performance of existing state-of-the-art models for RSP and PDP tasks and investigated what types of instances these models tend to have difficulty classifying and how impactful they are. We found, for example, that the performance of a model to predict the final decision of a paper is 23.31% lower when it is exposed to difficult instances and that the classifiers make mistake with a very high confidence. These and other results lead us to conclude that there are groups of instances that can negatively impact the model's performance. That way, the current state-of-the-art models have potential to helping editors to decide whether to approve or reject a paper; however, we are still far from having a system that is fully responsible for scoring a paper and decide if it will be accepted or rejected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The quantitative prediction and control of assembly stress are crucial for the accuracy of precision optical instruments during their manufacturing process. As a typical optical component, the multipoint bonded flat lens is widely used in precision optical instruments, in which the main assembly stress (i.e., radial adhesive stress) and its induced nonuniform stress field in the lens vary with environmental parameters and time. These factors ultimately determine the accuracy and stability of such precision instruments. Effective prediction of the radial adhesive stress is important for bonding parameter optimization and accuracy enhancement but remains difficult to obtain due to the lack of direct measurement devices and effective prediction methods. Here, a novel prediction method is presented to estimate the radial adhesive stress applied on a multipoint bonded flat lenses. First, a quantitative characterization method (QCM) is developed to concisely describe the nonuniform stress field in a lens using quantitative characterization parameters (QCPs). Then, based on the QCM and the theoretical model established in our previous work (Xiong et al., 2022), a prediction method is developed for the radial adhesive stress applied on a lens by analyzing the stress field in the lens. In this method, a backpropagation neural network is constructed to obtain the mapping relationship between the key QCPs of the stress field and the radial adhesive stress applied on the lens. Finally, an experimental verification of the prediction method is carried out. This paper proposes a novel method to predict the radial adhesive stress for multipoint bonded optical lenses, which can be adopted to monitor the variation characteristics of assembly stress in optical instruments during the entire life cycle and then further employed to optimize the bonding parameters during the lens manufacturing process. This paper attempts to construct a direct mapping relationship between assembly quality and assembly parameters for precision instruments, supporting the quantitative optimization of assembly parameters and quantitative control and prediction of assembly quality during the manufacturing and working process. [Display omitted] • A quantitative characterization method to describe the stress field in a lens is proposed. • Quantitative features of the stress field in multipoint bonded lenses are revealed. • The radial adhesive stress is predicted by analyzing the stress field in the lens. • A mapping relationship between assembly quality and assembly parameter is constructed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Air quality prediction technology can provide effective technical means for environmental governance. In recent years, due to the strong nonlinearity of data, there has been extensive research on data analysis and preprocessing techniques. This paper aims to comprehensively summarize and analyze the methods used in air quality forecasting, specifically focusing on four categories: data decomposition, dimensionality reduction, data correction, and spatial interpolation. Each method's purpose, characteristics, improvements, and implementation details are described in detail. The evaluation of data preprocessing methods is based on popularity, accuracy improvements, time consumption, maturity, and implementation difficulty. Among the existing methods, data decomposition and feature selection are commonly used and well-developed. However, outlier detection and spatial interpolation have limited applications and require further research. Furthermore, this paper discusses current challenges in applying these methods and future development trends, providing a valuable reference for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The issues of the evaluation and prediction of the reliability and testability of mining machinery and equipment are becoming particularly relevant, since the safety of technological processes and human life is reaching a new level of realisation due to changes in mining technology. The work is devoted to the development of a logical model for analysing the controllability of mining equipment. The paper presents a model of reliability of the operation of mining equipment on the example of a mine load and passenger hoist. This generalised model is made in the form of a graph of transitions and supplemented with a system of equations. The model allows for the estimation of the reliability of equipment elements and equipment as a whole. A mathematical and logical model for the calculation of the availability and downtime coefficients of various designs of mining equipment systems is proposed. This model became the basis for the methods to calculate the optimal values of diagnostic depth. At these calculated values, the maximum value of availability factor will be obtained. In this paper, an analytical study was carried out and dependences of the readiness factor of parameters of the investigated system such as the intensity of control of technical systems, intensity of failures, etc., were constructed. The paper proposes a mathematical model to assess the reliability of mine hoisting plants through its integration into the method of improving the reliability of mine hoisting plants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An ensemble n-sub-epidemic modeling framework that integrates sub-epidemics to capture complex temporal dynamics has demonstrated powerful forecasting capability in previous works. This modeling framework can characterize complex epidemic patterns, including plateaus, epidemic resurgences, and epidemic waves characterized by multiple peaks of different sizes. In this tutorial paper, we introduce and illustrate SubEpiPredict, a user-friendly MATLAB toolbox for fitting and forecasting time series data using an ensemble n-sub-epidemic modeling framework. The toolbox can be used for model fitting, forecasting, and evaluation of model performance of the calibration and forecasting periods using metrics such as the weighted interval score (WIS). We also provide a detailed description of these methods including the concept of the n-sub-epidemic model, constructing ensemble forecasts from the top-ranking models, etc. For the illustration of the toolbox, we utilize publicly available daily COVID-19 death data at the national level for the United States. The MATLAB toolbox introduced in this paper can be very useful for a wider group of audiences, including policymakers, and can be easily utilized by those without extensive coding and modeling backgrounds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In today's world, a significant amount of global energy is used in buildings. Unfortunately, a lot of this energy is wasted, because electrical appliances are not used properly or efficiently. One way to reduce this waste is by detecting, learning, and predicting when people are present in buildings. To do this, buildings need to become "smart" and "cognitive" and use modern technologies to sense when and how people are occupying the buildings. By leveraging this information, buildings can make smart decisions based on recently developed methods. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive overview of recent advancements in Internet of Things (IoT) technologies that have been designed and used for the monitoring of indoor environmental conditions within buildings. Using these technologies is crucial to gathering data about the indoor environment and determining the number and presence of occupants. Furthermore, this paper critically examines both the strengths and limitations of each technology in predicting occupant behavior. In addition, it explores different methods for processing these data and making future occupancy predictions. Moreover, we highlight some challenges, such as determining the optimal number and location of sensors and radars, and provide a detailed explanation and insights into these challenges. Furthermore, the paper explores possible future directions, including the security of occupants' data and the promotion of energy-efficient practices such as localizing occupants and monitoring their activities within a building. With respect to other survey works on similar topics, our work aims to both cover recent sensory approaches and review methods used in the literature for estimating occupancy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

3D human motion prediction, predicting future poses from a given sequence, is an issue of great significance and challenge in computer vision and machine intelligence, which can help machines in understanding human behaviors. Due to the increasing development and understanding of Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) and the availability of large-scale human motion datasets, the human motion prediction has been remarkably advanced with a surge of interest among academia and industrial community. In this context, a comprehensive survey on 3D human motion prediction is conducted for the purpose of retrospecting and analyzing relevant works from existing released literature. In addition, a pertinent taxonomy is constructed to categorize these existing approaches for 3D human motion prediction. In this survey, relevant methods are categorized into three categories: human pose representation , network structure design , and prediction target. We systematically review all relevant journal and conference papers in the field of human motion prediction since 2015, which are presented in detail based on proposed categorizations in this survey. Furthermore, the outline for the public benchmark datasets, evaluation criteria, and performance comparisons are respectively presented in this paper. The limitations of the state-of-the-art methods are discussed as well, hoping for paving the way for future explorations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We enjoyed reading Professor Efron's (Brad) paper just as much as we enjoyed listening to his June 2019 lecture in Leiden. Interestingly, Efron puts the pure predictive algorithms to the test in a scenario where the sample size is extremely moderate by today's standards ( I n i = 102). In the knockoff framework, one can use I any i black-box (any predictive model) to identify any kind possible association - linear or not - between a large set of explanatory variables Graph HT ht and an outcome I Y i . This framework rigorously tests whether the conditional distribution Graph HT ht actually depends on any of the variables I X SB j sb i without assuming any model for how I X i and I Y i are connected (Candès et al. [4]). [Extracted from the article]

This paper addresses a notable gap in the field of photovoltaic system forecasting by introducing the Machine Learning-based PV Prediction and Fault Analysis System (ML-PVPFAS). This framework is designed to optimize the decomposition of variational systems automatically, using a multi-objective intelligent optimization method to establish its weight. The paper evaluates a range of Machine Learning (ML) and Ensemble Learning (EL) techniques for diagnosing faults in PV arrays, with a primary focus on identifying and categorizing complex faults that could affect these arrays. These faults encompass multiple anomalies and defects with similar current-voltage curves, which have not been previously examined. The analysis of prediction scores reveals that the ML-PVPFAS approach outperforms other methods, with the lowest Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) at 4.93, Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) at 4.64, high Accuracy at 90.31%, Precision at 93.60%, a strong Pearson Correlation Coefficient of 0.90, and a fast Computation Time of 77.64 milliseconds. The results suggest that ML-PVPFAS is a dependable and practical algorithm for predicting the power output of PV solar systems, making it a valuable contribution to the field of predictive modeling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most of the deep-learning algorithms on stock price volatility prediction in the existing literature use data such as same-frequency market indicators or technical indicators, and less consider mixed-frequency data, such as macro-data. Compared with the traditional model that only inputs the same-frequency data such as technical indicators and market indicators, this study proposes an improved deep-learning model based on mixed-frequency big data. This paper first introduces the reserve restricted mixed-frequency data sampling (RR-MIDAS) model to deal with the mixed-frequency data and, secondly, extracts the temporal and spatial features of volatility series by using the parallel model of CNN-LSTM and LSTM, and finally utilizes the Optuna framework for hyper-parameter optimization to achieve volatility prediction. For the deep-learning model with mixed-frequency data, its RMSE, MAE, MSLE, MAPE, SMAPE, and QLIKE are reduced by 18.25%, 14.91%, 30.00%, 12.85%, 13.74%, and 23.42%, respectively. This paper provides a more accurate and robust method for forecasting the realized volatility of stock prices under mixed-frequency data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the demand for electricity, electrification, and renewable energy rises, accurate forecasting and flexible energy management become imperative. Distribution network operators face capacity limits set by regional grids, risking economic penalties if exceeded. This study examined data-driven approaches of load forecasting to address these challenges on a city scale through a use case study of Eskilstuna, Sweden. Multiple Linear Regression was used to model electric load data, identifying key calendar and meteorological variables through a rolling origin validation process, using three years of historical data. Despite its low cost, Multiple Linear Regression outperforms the more expensive non-linear Light Gradient Boosting Machine, and both outperform the "weekly Naïve" benchmark with a relative Root Mean Square Errors of 32–34% and 39–40%, respectively. Best-practice hyperparameter settings were derived, and they emphasize frequent re-training, maximizing the training data size, and setting a lag size larger than or equal to the forecast horizon for improved accuracy. Combining both models into an ensemble could the enhance accuracy. This paper demonstrates that robust load forecasts can be achieved by leveraging domain knowledge and statistical analysis, utilizing readily available machine learning libraries. The methodology for achieving this is presented within the paper. These models have the potential for economic optimization and load-shifting strategies, offering valuable insights into sustainable energy management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Underwater acoustic (UWA) channel prediction technology, as an important topic in UWA communication, has played an important role in UWA adaptive communication network and underwater target perception. Although many significant advancements have been achieved in underwater acoustic channel prediction over the years, a comprehensive summary and introduction is still lacking. As the first comprehensive overview of UWA channel prediction, this paper introduces past works and algorithm implementation methods of channel prediction from the perspective of linear, kernel-based, and deep learning approaches. Importantly, based on available at-sea experiment datasets, this paper compares the performance of current primary UWA channel prediction algorithms under a unified system framework, providing researchers with a comprehensive and objective understanding of UWA channel prediction. Finally, it discusses the directions and challenges for future research. The survey finds that linear prediction algorithms are the most widely applied, and deep learning, as the most advanced type of algorithm, has moved this field into a new stage. The experimental results show that the linear algorithms have the lowest computational complexity, and when the training samples are sufficient, deep learning algorithms have the best prediction performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Let G = (V,E) be a simple, connected and un-directed graph. We introduce a new notion of rainbow vertex antimagic coloring. This is a natural expansion of rainbow vertex coloring combined with antimagic labeling. For f: E(G) → {1, 2, . . ., |E(G)|}, the weight of a vertex v ∈ V (G) against f is wf (v) = Σe∈E(v)f(e), where E(v) is the set of vertices incident to v. The function f is called vertex antimagic edge labeling if every vertex has distinct weight. A path is considered to be a rainbow path if for each vertex u and v, all internal vertices on the u - v path have different weights. The rainbow vertex antimagic connection number of G, denoted by rvac(G), is the smallest number of colors taken over all rainbow colorings induced by rainbow vertex antimagic labelings of G. In this paper we aim to discover some new lemmas or theorems regarding to rvac(G). Furthermore, to see the robust application of rainbow vertex antimagic coloring, at the end of this paper we will illustrate the implementation of RVAC on spatial temporal graph neural networks (STGNN) multistep time series forecasting on subsidized diesel consumption of some petrol stations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, estimation and prediction inference of power Muth distribution, with the progressive censoring data, are described. The maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches of the unknown parameters are considered. Several Bayesian estimators are obtained against different symmetric and asymmetric loss functions, such as squared error, linex and general entropy. Also, the asymptotic confidence intervals and highest posterior density credible intervals of them are derived. Most focus of this paper is Bayesian prediction of the removed units in multiple stages of the progressively censored sample, so that, the Gibbs and Metropolis samplers are used, to reach this end. To compare the performance of different methods, Mont Carlo simulation is employed. Moreover, one practical data set is analyzed for illustrative purposes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The layout and configuration of urban infrastructure are essential for the orderly operation and healthy development of cities. With the promotion and popularization of new energy vehicles, the modeling and prediction of charging pile usage and allocation have garnered significant attention from governments and enterprises. Short-term demand forecasting for charging piles is crucial for their efficient operation. However, existing prediction models lack a discussion on the appropriate time window, resulting in limitations in station-level predictions. Recognizing the temporal nature of charging pile occupancy, this paper proposes a novel stacked-LSTM model called attention-SLSTM that integrates an attention mechanism to predict the charging demand of electric vehicles at the station level over the next few hours. To evaluate its performance, this paper compares it with several methods. The experimental results demonstrate that the attention-SLSTM model outperforms both LSTM and stacked-LSTM models. Deep learning methods generally outperform traditional time series forecasting methods. In the test set, MAE is 1.6860, RMSE is 2.5040, and MAPE is 9.7680%. Compared to the stacked-LSTM model, MAE and RMSE are reduced by 4.7%and 5%, respectively; while MAPE value decreases by 1.3%, making it superior to LSTM overall. Furthermore, subsequent experiments compare prediction performance among different charging stations, which confirms that the attention-SLSTM model exhibits excellent predictive capabilities within a six-step (2 h) window. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes an attempt to use data obtained from sodar (sound detection and ranging) for short-term forecasting of PM 10 concentration levels in Krakow. Krakow is one of the most polluted cities in central Europe (CE) in terms of PM 10 concentration. This is due to the high municipal emissions. Thanks to intensive corrective actions taken by the city authorities, these are being effectively eliminated, but the unfavourable topographic location of the city limits natural ventilation. The article describes all these conditions, focusing on presenting the method of short-term correction of air quality for the time needed to take quick corrective actions by the city authorities in the event of anticipated exceedances of the permissible values. Based on several years of measurements of the physical properties of the atmosphere with sodar, the authors of the paper suggest that sodar data could be considered for operational use to generate short-term predictions. The proposed method is based on the use of the spectrum, i.e. the set of amplitudes of signals returning to the sodar receiver from the reflection of a single-frequency sound transmission and its characteristic properties depending on the physical state of the atmosphere. Similar spectra were parameterised with a single numerical value using statistical methods. It was found that, in some cases preceding high concentrations of PM 10 , the spectral parameters had similar values. This made it possible to develop a forecasting method for such concentrations by using data mining to search for conditions in historical data closest to the state of the atmosphere at the time of forecasting. In this part of the study, data from 2017–2018 were used. In the next step, three methods of using the sodar data developed for PM 10 prediction were proposed, comparing them with the method without sodar use. The study results were tested on independent material using data concerning the episodes of high concentrations of pollutants from October 2021 to March 2022 in Krakow. The findings were considered to be encouraging, also taking into account the speed and low cost of preparing the forecast. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Utilization of agricultural and food wastes for biohydrogen generation is a hot research topic. In this paper, biohydrogen generation potentials from wheat, maize, barley, rice and potato production, consumption, associated losses, and household food waste generation in Turkey is estimated till 2030 using novel semi-empirical holistic models based on different scenarios. It was estimated that up to 90 thousand tonnes of biohydrogen could be produced from household food wastes in Turkey in 2030. This amount of biohydrogen would be worth 1.5 billon US$ and generate nearly 0.8 billion US$ of net return. In addition, this study clearly shows that there is a great potential for economic gain from agricultural and food waste based biohydrogen generation in Turkey. In conclusion, the methodology developed in this study could be used by researchers around the world to estimate local and national level biohydrogen generation potentials from agricultural and food wastes. [Display omitted] • This paper examines biohydrogen potentials from agricultural and food wastes. • Holistic per capita models for estimating annual biohydrogen production potentials. • Annual production and sale costs are estimated. • Annual net returns from biohydrogen generation are calculated. • The results highlight recommendations for future research directions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deep learning models have a high application value in runoff forecasting, but their prediction mechanism is difficult to interpret and their computational cost is high when dealing with complex hydrological relationships, limiting their feasibility in hydrological process mechanism analysis. To address these concerns, the paper first introduces an attention mechanism (AM) for building a long short-term memory network (LSTM) model with AM in the hidden layer (AM-LSTM). The AM-LSTM model employs attention layers to improve information extraction from hidden layers, resulting in a more accurate representation of the relationships between runoff-related elements. Furthermore, in the hidden layers of the AM-LSTM model, interpretable spatiotemporal attention units are established, which not only improves the model's prediction accuracy but also provides interpretability to the forecasting process. Furthermore, parallelization techniques are used in the paper to address the issue of model runtime cost. Simultaneously, to address the accuracy degradation caused by parallelization, the paper employs wavelet denoising (WD) techniques and builds the WD-AM-LSTM model. This accomplishment enables the runoff forecasting model to predict runoff in real time and with high accuracy. Based on validation using ten-day runoff data from the Huanren Reservoir in the Hun River's middle reaches, the results show that, with two layers and an eight-batch size, the AM-LSTM model outperforms the LSTM model in capturing spatiotemporal runoff features. During the model testing phase, the AM-LSTM model improves the MAE, RMSE, and NSE performance metrics by 8.46%, 13%, and 3.82%, respectively. The WD-AM-LSTM model effectively mitigates the noise impact caused by data parallelization under the conditions of two layers and a batch size of 512, achieving the same level of prediction performance while reducing computational cost by 92.01%. By incorporating attention mechanisms and wavelet denoising techniques, this study obtains high-speed and accurate predictions with interpretable results. It expands the deep learning models' applicability in ten-day runoff forecasting work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a method of beforehand prediction of electric equipment faults based on chain-linked recurrent neural network algorithm, which takes the operating parameters of power equipment and other relevant environmental factors as inputs, and takes the fault characteristics as output judgment marks, and constructs a machine learning training model to realize the prediction of power equipment faults. The neural network algorithm adopted in this paper adopts a tree structure. Each sub-node can transfer information with its multiple superior nodes, so that the correlation between the data of the front and back nodes can be obtained, which meets the needs of the equipment fault prediction model. Considering that the occurrence of power transformer faults is sudden and greatly affected by changes in the surrounding environment, the input of prediction algorithms should consider more environmental factors. This method takes the historical data of various parameters including meteorological phenomena, geography data, and temperature of adjacent equipment and facilities as the training sample set, improves the learning model, gives the trend curve of each index, and gives a prompt at its threshold to ensure the prediction accuracy and give the index prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under the influence of the coronavirus disease and other factors, agricultural product prices show non-stationary and non-linear characteristics, making it increasingly difficult to forecast accurately. This paper proposes an innovative combinatorial model for Chinese hog price forecasting. First, the price is decomposed using the Seasonal and Trend decomposition using the Loess (STL) model. Next, the decomposed data are trained with the Long Short-term Memory (LSTM) and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models. Finally, the prepared data and the multivariate influence factors after Factor analysis are predicted using the gated recurrent neural network and attention mechanisms (AttGRU) to obtain the final prediction values. Compared with other models, the STL-FA-AttGRU model produced the lowest errors and achieved more accurate forecasts of hog prices. Therefore, the model proposed in this paper has the potential for other price forecasting, contributing to the development of precision and sustainable agriculture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the complexity of the factors influencing membrane fouling in membrane bioreactors (MBR), it is difficult to accurately predict membrane fouling. This paper proposes a multi-strategy of integration aquila optimizer deep belief network (MAO-DBN) based membrane fouling prediction method. The method is developed to improve the accuracy and efficiency of membrane fouling prediction. Firstly, partial least squares (PLS) are used to reduce the dimensionality of many membrane fouling factors to improve the algorithm's generalization ability. Secondly, considering the drawbacks of deep belief network (DBN) such as long training time and easy overfitting, piecewise mapping is introduced in aquila optimizer (AO) to improve the uniformity of population distribution, while adaptive weighting is used to improve the convergence speed and prevent falling into local optimum. Finally, the prediction of membrane fouling is carried out by utilizing membrane fouling data as the research object. The experimental results show that the method proposed in this paper can achieve accurate prediction of membrane fluxes, with an 88.45% reduction in RMSE and 87.53% reduction in MAE compared with the DBN model before improvement. The experimental results show that the model proposed in this paper achieves a prediction accuracy of 98.61%, both higher than other comparative models, which can provide a theoretical basis for membrane fouling prediction in the practical operation of membrane water treatment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forecasting the generation of solar power plants (SPPs) requires taking into account meteorological parameters that influence the difference between the solar irradiance at the top of the atmosphere calculated with high accuracy and the solar irradiance at the tilted plane of the solar panel on the Earth's surface. One of the key factors is cloudiness, which can be presented not only as a percentage of the sky area covered by clouds but also many additional parameters, such as the type of clouds, the distribution of clouds across atmospheric layers, and their height. The use of machine learning algorithms to forecast the generation of solar power plants requires retrospective data over a long period and formalising the features; however, retrospective data with detailed information about cloudiness are normally recorded in the natural language format. This paper proposes an algorithm for processing such records to convert them into a binary feature vector. Experiments conducted on data from a real solar power plant showed that this algorithm increases the accuracy of short-term solar irradiance forecasts by 5–15%, depending on the quality metric used. At the same time, adding features makes the model less transparent to the user, which is a significant drawback from the point of view of explainable artificial intelligence. Therefore, the paper uses an additive explanation algorithm based on the Shapley vector to interpret the model's output. It is shown that this approach allows the machine learning model to explain why it generates a particular forecast, which will provide a greater level of trust in intelligent information systems in the power industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]