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• The consensus that manufacturing was the strategic road for development has recently been challenged. • We constructed an original and extensive database on the world manufacturing production, that provides information about value added and employment for 200 countries, of which 160 developing countries, for the 1970–2018 period. • The study does not reveal evidence of a recent decline of manufacturing in developing countries, including or not China. Rather we document a continuous expansion of manufacturing employment in the developing world, that accounts now for 82 % of the world employment, while the share of the developing economies in the world output has doubled over the period. • Since 2010, we observe and we quantify a new pattern. Manufacturing employment does not increase any more in China, while it has continued to grow at the same pace in the rest of the developing world. • Our findings show that manufacturing has continued to play a key role in economic development. Thus, low-income countries should not give up industrialization strategies and should learn from the recent experiences of rapid industrialization and growth. The "rise of the Rest" and almost all successes in economic development have relied on late industrialization. However, the consensus that manufacturing was the strategic road for development has recently been challenged. This paper addresses the issue of the status of manufacturing for economic development in the current period. To clarify whether the importance of manufacturing in developing countries has declined or not in the 21st Century, we constructed an original and extensive database on the world manufacturing production, that provides information about value added and employment for 200 countries, of which 160 Developing countries, for the 1970–2018 period. The study does not reveal evidence of a recent decline of manufacturing in developing countries, including or not China. Rather we document a continuous expansion of manufacturing employment in the developing world, that accounts now for 82 % of the world employment, while the share of the developing economies in the world output has doubled over the period. Since 2010, we observe and we quantify a new pattern. Manufacturing employment does not increase any more in China, while it has continued to grow at the same pace in the rest of the developing world. Our findings show that manufacturing has continued to play a key role in economic development. Thus, low-income countries should not give up industrialization strategies and should learn from the recent experiences of rapid industrialization and growth. In the near future, the upgrading of China's industrial structure will enlarge the windows of opportunities in manufacturing for late-comers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A productive restructuring model for the Greek economy is introduced. • The productive structure is optimized by using a particle swarm optimizer. • Policy intervention should focus on technologically advanced industrial sectors • The improvement of the economic structure cuts across all the economic system • Industrial structure adjustment has great potential to economic development policies The term productive restructuring refers to the transformation of an economic system for reaching predefined economic and social goals. The aim of this paper is to develop a methodological framework of productive restructuring, based on input-output analysis, targeting the optimization of the productive structure of an economy. The process of the productive restructuring involves: firstly, the reallocation of production among different economic sectors and, secondly, a process of intermediate input substitution. The proposed optimization model aims at the maximization of the total employment under macroeconomic constraints. A Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm is employed for the solution of the optimization problem. The proposed methodology is applied to the Greek economy. Results appear to show that the productive restructuring should focus on manufacturing sectors, mainly those of high and medium-high technological level. The findings of the research suggest that industrial structure adjustments have great potential for policy development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A system of indicators has been established for the high-quality economic development index developed by the Chinese government. • High-quality economic development is divided into five dimensions. • Reliance on the resource industry has significantly reduced the level of high-quality economic development. • The theoretical mechanisms of the impact of resource industry dependence on high-quality development are analyzed. • Government governance capacity weakens the impact of resource industry dependence on high-quality economic development. In resource-dependent regions, the meaning of high-quality economic development has yet to be clarified by published research, despite substantial scholarly interest in the topic. With the help of the economic development index developed by the Chinese government, this paper accurately measures high-quality economic development in 30 provinces in China and investigates how resource dependence and government governance capability affect regional high-quality economic development. Research has found that resource industry dependence has a significant inhibitory effect on high-quality economic development. Additionally, the analysis of the mechanisms revealed that resource industry dependence reduces high-quality economic development through a series of effects including crowding out innovation, weakening coordination, lagging green development, hindering global openness, and sharing in weakening. Further research has revealed that government governance capacity weakens the impact of resource industry dependence on high-quality economic development. A detailed analysis of three subsystem indicators of government governance capacity, namely policy planning, capability commitment, and performance assessment, indicates that they all have a weakening effect. To this end, the paper proposes policy recommendations, including increasing innovation inputs, advancing industrial restructuring, promoting green development, enhancing marketization levels, and constructing a diversified employment system. These measures aim to transform resource disadvantages into resource advantages and facilitate high-quality economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• New panel dataset of Marxist variables for 43 countries from 2000 to 2014. • Dataset includes rates of surplus value, composition of capital, shares of productive activity, and profit rates for the global economy. • The paper tests Marx's hypotheses on economic development at the world level. • Marx was right at the global level: capital intensity rises faster than exploitation rate, and the global profit rate declines. • Productive capital relocated to China, and unproductive activity increased in developed countries. We assess Marx's hypotheses about capitalist development on a global scale by constructing a new dataset of Marxist variables (profit rates, exploitation rates, composition of capital, and shares of productive activity) for 43 major economies, derived from world input-output data and national accounts in the 2000–2014 period. Consistent with Marx's hypotheses, the average profit rate declines at the world level, between countries, and within countries. The global rate of exploitation increases until 2008 but stagnates after the financial crisis, while capital intensity continued to increase. At the cross-country level, rich countries became increasingly dominated by unproductive activity. China absorbed much of the world's productive activity and kept the labor share of value added roughly constant at the world level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For a long period of the 20th Century, industrialization was seen as the quickest and more effective path for progress and productive diversification, influencing the choice of public policies adopted by Latin American governments since the inter-war period up until the debt crisis and the lost decade of the 1980s. Using a long-term macroeconomic database for the period 1913–2013 and 11 Latin American countries, complemented with a dataset of exports by product for the same countries and years, a positive relationship between industrialization and economic growth was found, both for the long run and for episodes of acceleration and deceleration. This correlation seems to be stronger for large than for small economies, reflecting the importance of the size of the domestic market in order to take advantages of economies of scale in the process of industrialization. Three economic channels that may explain this positive correlation are empirically tested. The first one is the contribution of manufacturing to the different components of productivity growth (within- and shift-effects), for which a shift-share decomposition was estimated, both for the long-run, for subperiods and for acceleration and deceleration episodes. The second channel is the contribution of industrialization to gross capital accumulation, where a positive relationship was found between the change in the share of employment in manufacture with the rate of growth of physical capital. Finally, the learning-by-doing hypothesis is tested using the skill-level composition of manufacturing exports, finding a positive relationship between cumulative manufacturing production and the share of mid- and high-skill products in the exports' matrix. The main contributions of the paper are twofold: the empirical identification of the mechanisms through which industrialization can promote economic development, and the extension of the analysis of Latin American economies to the first half of the 20th Century, which is scarce in the literature because of lack of reliable data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We present a methodology for relating traded products to aggregate country indicators. • We identify imported and exported products that correlate with growth and income per capita. • Catching-up economies characterized by frugality in consumer demand and the prominence of mass-production industries. • Mature economies distinguished by the importance of consumer demand and the export of knowledge-intensive goods. Using a novel methodology to relate traded products to aggregate country indicators, this paper identifies imported and exported goods that correlate with growth and income per capita, and based upon that, determines the productive and demand structure of mature and catching-up economies. The methodology in question first uses Principal Component Analysis on the products that countries specialize in importing and exporting, to reduce the number of variables that will, later, be linearly related to income and growth using Canonical Correlation Analysis. It is shown that fast growing or catching-up economies are characterized by the export of mass-produced manufactured goods, and the import of capital and intermediates – but not consumer goods. Frugality in consumption demand and congruence between exports and imports explain the high growth rates of catching-up or transitioning economies. In contrast, high income and slow growth mature economies are characterized by the export of goods whose production requires advanced technological capabilities. Their demand structure is characterized by the prominence of consumption rather than means of production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The paper documents developments in Indian economic performance and the role of structural change in this performance. • Manufacturing is dominated by informal labor, which has a deleterious effect on overall manufacturing performance. • Productivity growth is driven by within sector growth, with positive contributions of formal and informal activities to this. • Labor reallocation to the informal segment of the manufacturing sector is growth reducing in the Indian manufacturing sector. • A shift to more productive informal activities across sub-sectors exists, but this doesn't offset the negative within effect. This paper examines the role of structural change in India's performance, and in particular the role of the informal segment in the stagnant growth of the Indian manufacturing sector. Using counterfactual analysis – including a modified shift-share approach – the paper considers to what extent the informal sector can help explain the poor performance of Indian manufacturing over the period 1980-2011. The results suggest that the informal segment of manufacturing has been a drag on overall manufacturing productivity growth, with the informal manufacturing segment unable to provide a productivity bonus when absorbing workers from the agricultural sector. Results from the shift-share analysis indicate that labor reallocation to the informal segment of the manufacturing sector is growth-reducing, with structural change being the main source of this reduction, an effect which in turn is driven by movements of employment within manufacturing sub-sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Impacts of export quality on economic progress are examined. • The role of economic complexity for economic growth is investigated. • 28 OECD country's data is utilized from 1990 to 2019. • Export quality and economic complexity induce sustainable growth. • Institutional quality is a significant determinant for economic growth. It is important to unearth the role of structural change factors for sustainable growth in developed economies. Economic complexity, export product quality, and institutional indicators represent the overall structural change and transformation in an economy. This paper probed the influence of export product quality and economics of complexity on economic growth for 28 OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries using the data from 1990 to 2019. In doing so, the study employs three-panel data econometric models to investigate the role of economic complexity, export quality, and institutional quality on economic development. The paper performs the empirical tests, including the cross-sectional related dependency methods and cointegration techniques. As per the results emerging from fully modified OLS (FMOLS) and dynamic OLS (DOLS) estimation, export quality and financial development positively and significantly strongly impact growth in the long run. The empirical conclusions report detailed discussion on sustainable growth and discuss novel implications concerning product quality and institutional performance. The conclusions stress the practical implications for sustainable economic growth of OECD economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• This paper investigates the relation between democracy and income per capita over the period 1870–2010. • I use both cross-sectional and panel fixed effects regressions to explore how this relation changed over time. • Results show that democracy positively affects income per capita in the period post-1950, especially after 1990. • Yet, democracy has no significant effect in the period prior to 1950. • In the years before World War II, income per capita is mostly explained by prior income levels and education. Economists and political scientists have long investigated the effect of political institutions on economic development, mainly focusing on cross-sectional analyses for the years after World War II. This paper takes a historical perspective and studies whether this effect can be traced back to 1870 and how it changed over time. Using both cross-sectional and panel fixed effects regressions, I show that democracy positively affects income per capita in the post-1950 period. The effect increases as time passes and becomes especially larger after 1990, i.e. with the great democratization wave induced by the Fall of the Iron Curtain. Yet, I find no effect for the period before 1950, when the variation in income per capita is mostly explained by prior income levels, and in particular, by education. These findings are robust to accounting for income dynamics as well as to using different data sources to measure political institutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We present a multinomial approach not previously used in the macroeconomic literature for the study of growth and industrial dynamic. • The successful growth dynamic observed during the 1995–2014 period in several emerging economies is very heterogeneous in terms of their industrial transformation. • Developed economies grew slowly and, generally, through episodes of limited industrial transformation. • The relationship between economic fitness and the countries' industrial and growth dynamics generates a path dependency in economic development. • The fitness score of a country –that moves very slowly during one or two decades– establishes the most common sequences of episodes to be observed. When analyzing countries' medium- and long-term economic performance, it is important to study jointly the dynamic of growth and the industrial evolution that determines how the productive structure changes over time. In this paper, we use the Economic Fitness metric to describe the competitiveness of the countries' industrial structure, and classify economic episodes, with five-years windows, to establish how countries grow (i.e., above or below a trend, and with a dynamic or static industrial structure.) We show a complex growth dynamic using data covering two decades (1995–2014) for a large set of countries. This pattern indicates that the observed sequences of spells vary substantially even between countries within the same growth regime (low, medium, and high). Moreover, we find a robust statistical relationship between these spells and Economic Fitness with a multinomial econometric model. In particular, we show that economies with higher fitness are more resilient since episodes of below-average growth and the net disappearance of competitive firms are less likely to happen. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• China implemented the heavy industry priority development strategy rather than the comparative advantage development strategy in the early years of new China. • A dynamic optimization model including the labor-intensive goods sector, the capital-intensive goods sector, and the final goods sector is constructed to study the rationality of the heavy industry priority development strategy. • The relationship between the total social output per capita and the share of heavy industry capital stock is inverted U-shape. • Heavy industry, as basic industry, provides the necessary material conditions for the subsequent comparative advantage development strategy. Based on the objective fact that new China had a weak industrial base during the planned economy period and the policies implemented, this paper constructs a dynamic optimization model that includes the labor-intensive goods sector, the capital-intensive goods sector, and the final goods sector. The basic conclusion of the theoretical model is that there is an inverted-U relationship between total social output per capita and the share of heavy industry capital stock on the optimal dynamic path of capital accumulation with government intervention, i.e., the relationship is positive until a specific threshold is reached, beyond which it becomes negative. The results of the benchmark regressions and endogeneity tests confirm the inverted-U relationship, although the threshold share of heavy industry capital stock differs among the empirical models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• There exists a nonlinear, hump-shaped pattern between prefecture-level trade openness and manufacture labor share in China. • Internal geography is critical in shaping patterns of trade-induced structural change. • Internal reallocations of resources across regions and sectors within one country are central to the economic development. • Place-based policies based on regional stage of structural transformation are needed. Notable heterogeneity regarding international trade openness and level of development across different regions with significant inter-provincial migration has been a prominent feature in contemporary China. This paper studies the particular role of international trade in the structural transformation across each region in China. Combining several data, we document that there exhibits a non-monotone, hump-shaped relationship between international trade freeness and prefecture-level manufacture labor share in China. We rationalize this stylized fact in a spatial equilibrium model with multi-region, multi-sector, costly trade and endogenous allocation of labor, capital, and land. The analysis highlights the role of internal geography in shaping patterns of trade-induced structural change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article identifies foundational principles of the structural analysis of economic, political and social systems, and explores their bearing on the study of structural transformations. In doing so, it delves especially into the conceptual resources provided by strands of economic theory. Particular importance is given to the relative positions of socio-economic groups, productive sectors, and institutions; the relative invariance of certain patterns of interdependence vis-à-vis others; and the view of economic dynamics as structural transformation subject to the condition of relative invariance. The article goes on to introduce and discuss a collection of papers that explore the relationship between structures and transformations in economic, political and social systems. A fundamental theme is the relationship between the range of transformations made possible by structures and the individual or collective actions taking place within those structures, which lead to some structural transformations instead of others. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We argue that government development strategy and resource misallocation are key determinants of economic development in LDCs, i.e. China. • Our theoretical model reveals that a greater emphasis on heavy-industry-oriented development results in a larger capitalto-output ratio and lower per-capita output. • Empirically, we find that a larger capital-to-output ratio and lower TFP are associated with a greater degree of misallocation driven by government development strategy. This paper provides a consistent explanation for the distinct economic performance among the Less Developed Countries (LDCs) from the perspective of government development strategy. We argue that government development strategy and resource misallocation are key determinants of economic development in LDCs, i.e. China. Descriptive statistics show that China's capital-to-output ratio is negatively correlated with per-capita output, which contradicts the predictions of standard neoclassical growth theory. We incorporate governmental heavy-industry-oriented development strategy into a two-sector model to understand this puzzle. Our theoretical model reveals that a greater emphasis on heavy-industry-oriented development results in a larger capital-to-output ratio and lower per-capita output. We test our hypothesis against other theories using prefecture-level and firm data from China. We find that a larger capital-to-output ratio is associated with a greater degree of misallocation driven by government development strategy. A heavy-industry-oriented strategy will result in greater misallocation and lower TFP, which is consistent with our hypothesis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• I decompose export concentration along the extensive, quantity and quality margins. • Export restructuring has more impact than widening product mix or quality upgrading. • Successful restructuring accounts for world demand and potential to improve quality. • Low-income countries progress along the extensive and quality margins more rapidly. • At a high level of economic development, export re-specialization is not pronounced. This paper examines structural transformation along the development path by linking export concentration to economic development in a cross-country setting. I explore the role of widening product mix, export restructuring and quality upgrading for the patterns of export concentration measured by the weighted Theil index. This study contributes to the literature by developing the decomposition of this index into the extensive, quantitative and qualitative components. I find that structural transformation is primarily driven by export restructuring according to the world demand and towards the products with higher potential to improve quality. Controlling for the world demand, re-specialization is not pronounced at a high level of economic development, while the ability to upgrade quality becomes increasingly important for the higher-middle-income and high-income countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]