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The Yellow River Basin is a key ecological barrier and commercial zone in China, as well as an essential source of energy, chemicals, raw materials, and fundamental industrial foundation, the achievement of its carbon peaking is of great significance for China's high-quality development. Based on this, we decomposed the influencing factors of carbon dioxide emissions in the Yellow River Basin using the LMDI method and predicted the carbon peaking in the Yellow River Basin under different scenarios using the STIRPAT model. The results show that (1) the energy intensity effect, economic activity effect and population effect play a positive role in promoting carbon emissions during 2005–2020. The largest effect on carbon emissions is the population size effect, with a contribution rate of 65.6%. (2) The STIRPAT model predicts that the peak of scenarios "M–L", "M–M" and "M–H" will occur in 2030 at the earliest. The "M–H" scenario is the best model for controlling carbon emissions while economic and social development in the Yellow River Basin. The results of this paper can provide a theoretical basis for the development of a reasonable carbon peak attainment path in the Yellow River Basin and help policy makers to develop a corresponding high-quality development path. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Yellow River Basin is a key ecological barrier and commercial zone in China, as well as an essential source of energy, chemicals, raw materials, and fundamental industrial foundation, the achievement of its carbon peaking is of great significance for China's high-quality development. Based on this, we decomposed the influencing factors of carbon dioxide emissions in the Yellow River Basin using the LMDI method and predicted the carbon peaking in the Yellow River Basin under different scenarios using the STIRPAT model. The results show that (1) the energy intensity effect, economic activity effect and population effect play a positive role in promoting carbon emissions during 2005–2020. The largest effect on carbon emissions is the population size effect, with a contribution rate of 65.6%. (2) The STIRPAT model predicts that the peak of scenarios "M–L", "M–M" and "M–H" will occur in 2030 at the earliest. The "M–H" scenario is the best model for controlling carbon emissions while economic and social development in the Yellow River Basin. The results of this paper can provide a theoretical basis for the development of a reasonable carbon peak attainment path in the Yellow River Basin and help policy makers to develop a corresponding high-quality development path. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Yellow River basin spans nine provinces and autonomous regions and plays an important role in China's economic and social development and ecological security. However few studies have integrated the concept of carbon neutrality into research to evaluate the carbon-neutral development level. This paper calculates the comprehensive evaluation value of the provincial carbon-neutral capacities comprehensive evaluation index in the Yellow River basin through the driving-force-pressure-state-impact-response (DFPSIR) index system and the global entropy method based on provinces data between 2008 to 2019. The final results indicated that from 2008 to 2019, the carbon-neutral capacities of the provinces in the Yellow River basin were in a state of rapid development and had achieved a grade leap. However, seven provinces had carbon-neutral capacity levels at the Grade III standard in 2019, thereby leaving scope for substantial improvement. Through the above research, we identified the changes in the trend and driving mechanisms of the carbon-neutral capacity of the Yellow River basin and provide a theoretical reference value for a comprehensive realization of carbon neutrality in China in 2060. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]