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Understanding changes of soil organic carbon (SOC) in top layers of croplands and their driving factors is a vital prerequisite in decision-making for maintaining sustainable agriculture. However, high-precision estimation of SOC of croplands at regional scale is still an issue to be solved. Based on soil samples, synthetic image of bare soil and geographical data, this paper predicted SOC density of croplands using Random Forest model in the Black Soil Region of Jilin Province, China in 2005 and 2020, and analyzed its influencing factors. Results showed that random forest model that integrates bare soil composite images improve the accuracy and robustness of SOC density prediction. From 2005 to 2020, the total SOC storage in croplands decreased from 89.96 to 82.79 Tg C with an annual decrease of 0.48 Tg C yr−1. The mean value of SOC density of croplands decreased from 3.42 to 3.32 kg/m2, and high values are distributed in middle parts. Changes of SOC represented significant heterogeneity spatially. 62.14% of croplands with SOC density greater than 4.0 kg/m2 decreased significantly, and 38.60% of croplands with SOC density between 2.5 and 3.0 kg/m2 significantly increased. Climatic factors made great contributions to SOC density, however, their relative importance (RI) to SOC density decreased from 44.65% to 37.26% during the study period. Synthetic images of bare soil constituted 23.54% and 26.29% of RI in the SOC density prediction, respectively, and the contribution of each band was quite different. The RIs of topographic and vegetation factors were low but increased significantly from 2005 to 2020. This study can aid local land managers and governmental agencies in assessing carbon sequestration potential and carbon credits, thus contributing to the protection and sustainable use of black soils. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The extraction and evaluation of crop production units are important foundations for agricultural production and management in modern smallholder regions, which are very significant to the regulation and sustainable development of agriculture. Crop areas have been recognized efficiently and accurately via remote sensing (RS) and machine learning (ML), especially deep learning (DL), which are too rough for modern smallholder production. In this paper, a delimitation-grading method for actual crop production units (ACPUs) based on RS images was explored using a combination of a mask region-based convolutional neural network (Mask R-CNN), spatial analysis, comprehensive index evaluation, and cluster analysis. Da'an City, Jilin province, China, was chosen as the study region to satisfy the agro-production demands in modern smallholder areas. Firstly, the ACPUs were interpreted from perspectives such as production mode, spatial form, and actual productivity. Secondly, cultivated land plots (C-plots) were extracted by Mask R-CNN with high-resolution RS images, which were used to delineate contiguous cultivated land plots (CC-plots) on the basis of auxiliary data correction. Then, the refined delimitation-grading results of the ACPUs were obtained through comprehensive evaluation of spatial characteristics and real productivity clustering. For the conclusion, the effectiveness of the Mask R-CNN model in C-plot recognition (loss = 0.16, mean average precision (mAP) = 82.29%) and a reasonable distance threshold (20 m) for CC-plot delimiting were verified. The spatial features were evaluated with the scale-shape dimensions of nine specific indicators. Real productivities were clustered by the incorporation of two-step cluster and K-Means cluster. Furthermore, most of the ACPUs in the study area were of a reasonable scale and an appropriate shape, holding real productivities at a medium level or above. The proposed method in this paper can be adjusted according to the changes of the study area with flexibility to assist agro-supervision in many modern smallholder regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Open burning is often used to remove crop residue during the harvest season. Despite a series of regulations by the Chinese government, the open burning of crop residue still frequently occurs in China, and the monitoring and forecasting crop fires have become a topic of active research. In this paper, crop fires in Northeastern China were forecasted using an artificial neural network (ANN) based on moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite fire data from 2013–2020. Both natural factors (meteorological, soil moisture content, harvest date) and anthropogenic factors were considered. The model's forecasting accuracy under natural factors reached 77.01% during 2013–2017. When considering the influence of anthropogenic management and control policies, such as the straw open burning prohibition areas in Jilin Province, the accuracy of the forecast results for 2020 was reduced to 60%. Although the forecasting accuracy was lower than for natural factors, the relative error between the observed fire points and the back propagation neural network (BPNN) forecasting results was acceptable. In terms of influencing factors, air pressure, the change in soil moisture content in a 24 h period and the daily soil moisture content were significantly correlated with open burning. The results of this study improve our ability to forecast agricultural fires and provide a scientific framework for regional prevention and control of crop residue burning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]