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It is believed that, in the future, the intensity and frequency of extreme coastal flooding events may increase as a result of climate change. The Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) Flood Risk from Extreme Events (FREE) project, Coastal Flooding by Extreme Events and EU FP7 Morphological Impacts and Coastal Risks Induced by Extreme Storm Events project are investigating the flood risks in the eastern Irish Sea, an area that includes most of England’s coastal types. Using a previously modelled and validated historical extreme surge event, in November 1977, we now investigate the changes in peak surge as a result of possible future climate conditions. In order to simulate the surge, we have set up a one-way nested approach, using the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal Ocean Modelling System 3D baroclinic model, from a domain covering the whole NW European continental shelf, through to a 1.85 km Irish Sea model; both areas are forced by tides, atmospheric pressure and winds. We use this modelling system to investigate the impact of enhanced wind velocities and increased sea levels on the peak surge elevation and residual current pattern. The results show that sea level rise has greater potential to increase surge levels than increased wind speeds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An introduction to the various reports discussed within the issue is presented, including articles on applied oceanography, bottom boundary dynamics and tidal flats and channels.

The article discusses the highlights of the 14th International Biennial Conference on Physics of Estuaries and Coastal Seas (PECS 2008) which was held in Liverpool, England from August 15-29. The conference is chaired by Charitha Pattiaratchi and adopted the theme on process studies in the pre-operational era. The sponsors of the conference, including the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory, the UK Environment Agency and the Explorocean Ltd., are mentioned.

This article reflects on the 12th International Biennial Conference on Physics of Estuaries and Coastal Seas (PECS) held in Mérida, México from October 19 to 22, 2004. PECS philosophy has been to stimulate the cooperation between the coastal engineers and coastal oceanographers. The topic of PECS 2004 was Hydrodynamics and Morphodynamics in Estuaries and Coastal Seas, including estuarine hydrodynamics, coastal hydrodynamics, coastal transport and morphodynamics.

A three dimensional structure of mesoscale circulation in the Black Sea is simulated using the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal Ocean Modelling System. A number of sensitivity tests reveal the response of the model to changes in the horizontal resolution, time steps, and diffusion coefficients. Three numerical grids are examined with x-fine (3.2 km), fine (6.7 km) and coarse (25 km) resolution. It is found that the coarse grid significantly overestimates the energy of the currents and is not adequate even for the study of basin-scale circulation. The x-fine grid, on the other hand, does not give significant advantages compared to the fine grid, and the latter is used for the bulk of simulations. The most adequate parameters are chosen from the sensitivity study and used to model both the basin-scale circulation and day-to-day variability of mesoscale currents for the months of May and June of 2000. The model is forced with actual wind data every 6 h and monthly climatic data for evaporation, precipitation, heat fluxes and river run-off. The results of the fine grid model are compared favourably against the satellite imagery. The model adequately reproduces the general circulation and many mesoscale features including cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies, jets and filaments in different parts of the Black Sea. The model gives a realistic geographical distribution and parameters of mesoscale currents, such as size, shape and evolution of the eddies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wind and tidal straining are proposed as key mechanisms influencing the magnitude and timing of the horizontal flux of freshwater across regions of freshwater influence (ROFIs). Evidence for this hypothesis is presented in estimates of the tidally averaged residual current profile, obtained from 5 years of continuous acoustic doppler current profiler measurements in the Liverpool Bay ROFI. The modified horizontal Richardson number ( $R_{x}^{wt}$), which includes both the tidal and the wind forcing, was assessed as a measure of stratification. $R_{x}^{wt}$ was found to be a good indicator of the timing of the evolution and destruction of stratification, but was not as successful as an indicator of the magnitude of stratification, both enduring and periodic. The observed mean residual velocities are compared to those predicted by a classical solution, and the eddy viscosity ( N z) is shown to be a control on differences between the observed and predicted circulation. Principal component analysis is used to show that the strongest residual currents occur when the water column periodically alternates between a well-mixed and stratified state, a consequence of straining, rather than simply related to the density gradient. Evidence of wind straining was found in the correspondence between the wind direction and the near surface and near bed residual current direction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]