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Landslides are the most dangerous and common natural phenomena causing higher number of victims and damages in Piemonte (north-western Italy). An integrated statistical approach to identify the main predisposing and triggering factor causing shallow landslides occurrence based on a large dataset of historical rainfall-induced shallow landslides and a long-time series of rainfall data is presented. Historical shallow landslide events were compared with territorial and rainfall characteristics. Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) has been performed in order to explore the spatial distributions of landslides with the environmental quantitative variables (morphometry and rainfall) to identify possible patterns of spatial autocorrelation. ESDA showed strong autocorrelation of landslide locations with rainfall variables, while resulting in low values for morphometric parameters at the investigated scale. Moreover, by intersecting landslides distribution with categorical land thematic parameters (land thematic maps) allowed to identify areas with different landslide density occurrence. Resulting susceptibility-related areas were used to improve the landslides regional Early Warning System of Piemonte based on refined empirical intensity vs duration (I-D) rainfall thresholds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose a simple method to estimate the surface displacement of earth slides. It is based on the assumptions that earth slides move by sliding along a discrete basal-slip surface and extensional structures, which commonly characterize their depletion zone, completely accommodate the occurred displacement. The proposed method is based on the reconstruction of the cross-sectional geometry of structures crossed by an arbitrary chosen longitudinal profile, aligned with the direction of the movement. Structure geometry reconstruction is completed using high-precision GPS survey and the reconstructed geometry is then used as basis to measure horizontal and vertical components of the displacement accommodated by each single extensional structure. Total horizontal and vertical earth-slide displacements are calculated as the sum of displacements accumulated at each single structure. We test the method at the Summonte earth slide in southern Italy using real-time kinematic GPS field mapping. Results from our estimation were validated considering a single displacement vector derived from the direct and indirect measurement of the position of an isolated tree located below the extensional zone of the slide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main aim of this study is the description and the analysis of the monitoring strategies implemented within local landslide early warning systems (Lo-LEWS) operational all around the world. Relevant information on 29 Lo-LEWS have been retrieved from peer-reviewed articles published in scientific journals and proceedings of technical conferences, books, reports, and institutional web pages. The first part of the paper describes the characteristics of these early warning systems considering their different components. The main characteristics of each system are summarized using tables with the aim of providing easily accessible information for technicians, experts, and stakeholders involved in the design and operation of Lo-LEWSs. The second part of the paper describes the monitoring networks adopted within the considered systems. Monitoring strategies are classified in terms of monitored activities and methods detailing the parameters and instruments adopted. The latter are classified as a function of the type of landslide being monitored. The discussion focuses on issues relevant for early warning, including appropriateness of the measurements, redundancy of monitoring methods, data analysis, and performance. Moreover, a description of the most used monitoring parameters and instruments for issuing warnings is presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many landslides were triggered by heavy rainfall from 29 June to 1 July 2017 in Ningxiang County, Hunan Province, China. A field investigation into one of the landslides, known as the Wangjiawan landslide, was undertaken on July 3, 2017, to understand the landslide mechanisms and the factors that triggered the event. The landslide is a translational and rotational slide that degraded downslope to an earth flow. It occurred on a steeply dipping mud-rich slate intercalation. Field investigation shows that the landslide had a movement rate of more than 25 m/s and had been triggered by up to 338 mm of continuous rainfall over 2 days. The landslide was fast-moving because it occurred on a steep slope and showed a rapid reduction in shear strength. The landslide resulted in nine fatalities and 19 injuries, most during initial rescue efforts. To mitigate a possible secondary landslide disaster, later emergency measures including evacuation of the survivors, setting up warning signs, and covering landslide cracks with plastic sheeting were adopted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent investigations have sought to understand the spatial-temporal distribution of landslides in Teziutlán, Puebla, a municipality historically affected by landslides. The latest initiative, under the umbrella of the ICL-IPL Project “Landslide disaster risk communication in mountain areas,” was the publication of a book of Atlas type comprising a collection of 142 maps and their corresponding explanatory texts that included a context analysis of landslide disaster risk drivers at various scales, from regional to local. This paper aims to recognise and address the necessity to further enhance the guiding principle of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction to focus on the understanding of disaster risk drivers at local level, for the determination of measures to reduce disaster risk. We present an initial contribution to promote landslide disaster risk awareness in the urban area of Teziutlán by providing to the community direct access to maps of landslide disaster risk at local scale; this is a first step towards the establishment of a robust strategy to communicate landslide risk in the long term. Effective implementation calls for decreasing vulnerability and exposure. Beyond contexts of vulnerability reflected by social, economic, cultural, political, and institutional conditions, it may be difficult to picture the spatial interactions of exposure of communities, assets, and the environment because the means of analysing spatial relationships between society and nature are not commonly available in mountain areas. Therefore, for people to better understand risk, maps of landslide susceptibility and risk exposure present a good way for the inhabitants to familiarise themselves with the spatial context of the dynamics in which they are immersed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On February 14, 2010, a large landslide affected the urban centre of San Fratello town (Sicily Island, Southern Italy), causing severe damage to buildings, roadways, and infrastructure, as well as about 2000 evacuees. This large complex landslide, covering more than 1 km2 in extension, represents one of the major phenomena that ever occurred in Sicily. In order to manage the landslide risk, the civil protection system was activated as part of the initial response to the emergency (the “emergency phase”). This involved the Civil Protection Departments both at national (DPC) and regional (DRPC) levels, as well as scientific institutions (namely “Competence centres”, CdCs), local administration personnel, and technicians. On March 8, 2010, during the post-event recovery phase, a ground-based synthetic aperture radar (GB-InSAR) system was installed in order to monitor the ground surface deformation, assess the landslide residual risk, and analyse its displacement trend. Accurate field surveys and building inspections were also performed for a validation of the GB-InSAR data, in order to map the ground deformation, plan building evacuation-demolishment, as well as check the efficiency of the landslide mitigation works. This paper describes the outcomes of the 57 month monitoring campaign (March 2010–December 2014), reporting the use of GB-InSAR data for near real-time monitoring, mapping, and post-emergency/recovery management activities. The final aim was to provide the civil protection personnel with a reliable, rapid, and easy communication system of the monitoring results, designed to an enhance understanding of the landslide phenomena, and to support the decision-making process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scientific literature is becoming daily more and more abundant. Scientific and professional journals as primary information sources are competing to each other to attract readership. Their position (ranking, visibility, attractiveness, prestige) in scientific community can be measured by using different journal bibliometric and scientometric parameters, journal impact factor being only one of them. Springer Nature publishes the journal Landslides: Journal of the International Consortium on Landslides since 2004. Being examined in the past by different authors from bibliometric and editorial point of view, this review on the journal's achievements confirmed the high ranking of this journal in the fields of geological and geotechnical engineering and engineering geology. Strong and weak points are discussed from the bibliometric point of view, stressing the need for higher internationality of co-authorship of published articles in order to be true international journal. Continuous publishing and the move to a monthly journal in 2018 will eventually increase journal's h-index and cited half-life of citations, but further editorial efforts should be directed to attract excellent review papers and focused technical notes to increase cites per paper. Until now, the journal Landslides is the foremost journal in the field of landslide disaster risk reduction, and the top young international journal in the field of geological engineering and engineering geology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Complete landslide inventories are rarely available. The objectives of this study were to (i) elaborate the influence of incomplete landslide inventories on statistical landslide susceptibility models and to (ii) propose suitable modelling strategies that can reduce the effects of inventory-based incompleteness. In this context, we examined whether the application of a novel statistical approach, namely mixed-effects models, enables predictions that are less influenced by such inventory-based errors. The study was conducted for (i) an area located in eastern Austria and (ii) a synthetically generated data set. The applied methodology consisted of a simulation of two different inventory-based biases and an in-depth evaluation of subsequent modelling results. Inventory-based errors were simulated by gradually removing landslide data within forests and selected municipalities. The resulting differently biased inventories were introduced into logistic regression models while we considered the effects of including or excluding predictors that are directly related to the respective inventory-based bias. Mixed-effects logistic regression was used to account for variation that was due to an inventory-based incompleteness. The results show that most erroneous predictions, but highest predictive performances, were obtained from models generated with highly incomplete inventories and predictors that were able to directly describe the respective incompleteness. An exclusion of such bias-describing predictors led to systematically confounded relationships. The application of mixed-effects models proved valuable to produce predictions that were least affected by inventory-based errors. This paper highlights that the degree of inventory-based incompleteness is only one of several aspects that determine how an inventory-based bias may propagate into the final results. We propose a four-step procedure to deal with incomplete inventories in the context of statistical landslide susceptibility modelling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ANNEX to the 2017 Ljubljana Declaration on Landslide Risk Reduction described in the 'Preface' section of this issue is the list of participants (by organizations) in the Fourth World Landslide Forum. In this article, emphasis is put on this list of organizations as they are expected to be the key components for the Fifth World Landslide Forum 2020 in Kyoto, Japan. The participants in the Fourth World Landslide Forum 2017 adopted the 2017 Ljubljana Declaration on Landslide Risk Reduction. They further endorsed the concept of the Kyoto 2020 Commitment for Global Promotion of Understanding and Reducing Landslide Disaster Risk. The commitment aims to establish a long-term, wider, and stronger network after WLF5 2020 among three membership categories, namely, the International Consortium on Landslides (ICL) full members/supporters/associates, ICL-supporting organizations (UN and international global organizations) and ICL-supporting governments, and ISDR-ICL Sendai Partnerships 2015-2025. This article introduces three categories of ICL memberships and calls for participation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Fourth World Landslide Forum (WLF4) was held in Cankarjev dom-Cultural and Congress Centre in Ljubljana, Slovenia, from 30 May to 2 June 2017, with over 600 participants from 49 countries, 5 international organizations, and 4 United Nations organizations-scientists, engineers, researchers, students, experts, politicians, and other decision makers working in the area of landslide risk reduction. Well, over 100 of them were (post)graduate students. The WLF4 as a triennial event was a contribution of the International Consortium on Landslides (ICL) to the implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030. This article reports on the main WLF4 events and outcomes of the forum. Altogether, close to 400 peer-reviewed full papers, including keynote, invited, and other submitted papers, were published by Springer Nature in five volumes with a total of over 3600 pages. During the WLF4, 20 new World Centres of Excellence on Landslide Risk Reduction for 2017-2020, IPL Awards for Success, Varnes Medals, Best Paper Awards, and other means of recognitions were handed out to the recipients. The WLF4 participants have adopted the '2017 Ljubljana Declaration,' and drafted the 'Kyoto 2020 Commitment,' in order to stress their strong and joint commitment for the ISDR-ICL Sendai Partnerships 2015-2025 on its way towards the Fifth World Landslide Forum to be held in November 2020 in Kyoto, Japan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Landslides are recurrent phenomena in Italy, but little is known regarding the public perception of related risk. In order to investigate landslide risk perception of recent phenomena, we decided to perform a qualitative investigation in Frosinone (Lazio, Central Italy) where, during 2013, a relevant landslide ('Viaduct Biondi') occurred. Survey results highlighted that Frosinone population have been experiencing landslides but do not consider themselves threatened and prepared in occurrence of this type of emergency. This study pointed out that Frosinone municipality and surrounding town populations behave as an inactive actor in land conservation and management, addressing major responsibility to institutions. For this reason, realization of a purposed designed dissemination campaign would be useful in order to improve citizen knowledge and to enhance their participation in landslide risk reduction activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The presented work was performed within the scope of the IPL project no. 197, entitled 'Low frequency, highly damaging potential landslide events in 'low-risk' regions - challenges for hazard and risk management'. The Czech Republic is an example of a landslide 'low-risk' country with all the related challenges for long-term and sustainable landslide risk management. We argue that the main challenge is to raise and maintain a corresponding level of public attention to landslide hazards and risks. Since hazard and risk recognition by the potentially affected people is the main precondition of any effective risk mitigation, we performed several tasks to provide as yet unavailable information about specific aspects of the occurrence of landslides in the Czech Republic which may attract the attention of the public, including the responsible authorities, to the landslide risk. These aspects include new ways of updating a landslide inventory and compilation of a database of the cost of landslide mitigation works paid by the government. Landslide inventories derived from web sources, the unified system of traffic information of the national road authority and information collected by the Czech Geological Survey were compared. The landslide inventory compiled by the Czech Geological Survey is the most complete, but in some cases, the other two inventories could be used to complete it with landslide events not yet registered. Landslide-related expenses of the state budget are not negligible and their uneven spatial distribution cannot be explained by landslide occurrences only, which calls for in-depth risk assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to analyze landslide risk public awareness and knowledge in Mexico based on people's common understanding and perception of landsliding associated with previous events. The methodology involved the design and application of a risk perception questionnaire in the municipality of Teziutlán, Puebla, Mexico, an area that has been historically affected by mass movement processes, particularly during a rainfall induced landslide disaster event in October 1999. Sampling framework comprised two boroughs; Downtown Teziutlán (DTT, N = 65), and San Andrés neighborhood (SAN, N = 72). The former has no evidence of landslide risk, whereas the latter has been affected by landsliding. The questionnaire included the following items: (1) experience, (2) landslide risk awareness, (3) exposure, (4) preparedness, (5) responsibility, (6) response, and (7) trust. Results suggested that all the inhabitants of the sample are aware of risk of landsliding and consider the dwellings situated in the city center as the safest. The latter is consistent with a landslide susceptibility map on which hillslope material properties are reflected and lithological units of highest resistance are located beneath the city center. The need of undertaking different initiatives to achieve disaster risk reduction at community level was clearly expressed by the respondents in terms of ranking all the actions listed in the questionnaire as of high and moderate priority to improve the security of the residents. Highest accountability for actions in case of a landslide disaster was attached to the Mexican Army, as it is in charge of disaster response nationwide. Responses provided by the municipal government, health institutions and the Red Cross in DTT and by the state and municipal government along with civil protection in SAN were perceived as bad or just sufficient. High level of people's confidence to get information on landslide disaster preparedness and response from the Red Cross and scientists was also perceived in the two communities. From the outcome of the present investigation, it is possible to conclude and reinforce the argument that a better understanding on how landsliding is perceived is one of the most significant issues for enhancing landslide disaster risk awareness and knowledge and to guarantee the advance of resilient communities at individual and collective scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a new region-based preparatory factor, total flux ( TF), for landslide susceptibility models (LSMs). TF takes into account the topography and hydrology conditions upstream of each gridded data cell and represents the total flux of water in the stream. The results show that TF is strongly associated with the occurrence of landslides and is a good preparatory factor for LSM. Using TF instead of a drainage distance factor in I-Lan region in Taiwan shows an improvement in the accuracy of the cumulative percentage of landslide occurrence of 44 and 14 % for the top 1 and 10 % susceptible areas, respectively. This significant improvement in accuracy in these high-risk areas is critical for preventing and mitigating the economic and human losses due to landslides. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fifty-five descending images from the ENVISAT satellite were processed using the small baseline subset (SBAS) method to derive the spatial and temporal ground deformation of the Bailong River Basin between 2003 and 2010. The basin is one of the most severely landslide- and debris flow-affected areas of China. As a result, 104 sites with high deformation areas were identified. Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) analysis was combined with landslide inventory data and field surveys, and anomalous areas were classified into three main types: landslide; debris; and subsidence. Displacement rates up to 35 mm/yr were evaluated away from the sensor along a line-of-sight (LOS) direction. The results gained should allow a more accurate prediction and monitoring of landslides, debris, and subsidence; further, they demonstrate the capability of the SBAS method to analyze any displacement effect and identify dangerous and uninhabitable areas in the basin. The small baseline subset method can thus contribute to the prediction and prevention of geohazards in the area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper demonstrates the predictive capabilities of a numerical model based on continuum mechanics for the simulation of run-out processes during landslides. It assesses a particle-based method that takes advantage of a double Lagrangian-Eulerian discretization and known as the material point method (MPM). Attention is given to the post-failure behaviour and, in particular, to the computation of important quantities such as run-out distance, maximum velocity and energy release. The MPM is a step forward in computational solid mechanics and has the potential to simulate large deformations such as those occurring during landslides. A validation is conducted based on simulations of two case studies of different scales, namely the Tokai-Hokuriku expressway failure in Japan and the Vajont landslide in Italy. The results show a very good agreement with field and other numerical observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work focuses on the development of a combined statistical-mechanical approach to predict changes in landslide displacement rates from observed changes in rainfall amounts. The forecasting tool FLAME (Forecasting Landslides Accelerations induced by Meteorological Events) associates (1) a statistical impulse response (IR) model to simulate the changes in landslide rates by computing a transfer function between the input signal (e.g. rainfall) and the output signal (e.g. displacement) and (2) a simple 1D mechanical (MA) model (e.g. viscoplastic rheology) to take into account changes in pore water pressure. The models have been applied to forecast the displacement rates at the Super-Sauze landslide (South East France). The performance of different combinations of models (IR model alone, MA model alone and a combination of the IR and MA models) is evaluated against observed changes in pore water pressures and displacement rates at the study site. Results indicate that the three models are able to reproduce the displacement pattern in the general kinematic regime (succession of acceleration and deceleration phases); conversely, extreme kinematic regimes such as fluidization of part of the landslide mass are not being reproduced. The approach constitutes however a robust tool to predict changes in displacement rates from rainfall or groundwater time series. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Logistic regression studies which assess landslide susceptibility are widely available in the literature. However, a global review of these studies to synthesise and compare the results does not exist. There are currently no guidelines for the selection of covariates to be used in logistic regression analysis, and as such, the covariates selected vary widely between studies. An inventory of significant covariates associated with landsliding produced from the full set of such studies globally would be a useful aid to the selection of covariates in future logistic regression studies. Thus, studies using logistic regression for landslide susceptibility estimation published in the literature were collated, and a database was created of the significant factors affecting the generation of landslides. The database records the paper the data were taken from, the year of publication, the approximate longitude and latitude of the study area, the trigger method (where appropriate) and the most dominant type of landslides occurring in the study area. The significant and non-significant (at the 95 % confidence level) covariates were recorded, as well as their coefficient, statistical significance and unit of measurement. The most common statistically significant covariate used in landslide logistic regression was slope, followed by aspect. The significant covariates related to landsliding varied for earthquake-induced landslides compared to rainfall-induced landslides, and between landslide type. More importantly, the full range of covariates used was identified along with their frequencies of inclusion. The analysis showed that there needs to be more clarity and consistency in the methodology for selecting covariates for logistic regression analysis and in the metrics included when presenting the results. Several recommendations for future studies were given. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Landslide is one of the most widely distributed mass movements in mountainous areas. With its wide spreading, abrupt, and seasonal characteristics, landslide always causes huge risks towards transportation, human settlements, industrial and mining plants, water resources facilities, and hydropower stations. Abe Barek landslide, which happened in the morning of May 2, 2014, in Ago District, Badakhshan Province, Afghanistan, buried 86 houses and took the lives of almost 2700 people. Many factors triggered the occurrence of this disaster. Firstly, the landslide-impacted area has a complex geologic structure that bears concentrated faults with mountain slopes covered by thick loess. Secondly, at the time of landslide, a continuous rainfall had deepened the level of moisture in the loess layer, which made the loess mass heavier and changed the soil body's mechanical properties. Thirdly, a similar landslide once happened on the same slope, which destroyed the land cover and transformed the topology of the slope. In addition, farming and irrigating activities may have also affected the stability of loess mass in this area. Upon an initial examination of landslide distribution in Badakhshan Province by using high-resolution remote sensing images from Google Earth, a total number of 609 landslide sites were identified in this area, and a landslide susceptibility assessment was completed by utilizing weight-of-evidence method. Several suggestions on landslide risk reduction in this remote mountainous area are proposed at the end of this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bedding planes are a known factor that controls the type, abundance and pattern of landslides. Where layered rocks crop out, the geometrical relationships between the attitude of the bedding and the geometry of the terrain is crucial to understand landslide phenomena. Obtaining information on bedding attitude for large areas through field surveys is time-consuming, and resource intensive, hampering the possibility of quantitative investigations on the control of bedding planes on landslides. We propose a GIS-based method to extract information on bedding planes from the analysis of information captured through the visual interpretation of stereoscopic aerial photographs and a digital representation of the terrain. We tested the method in the Collazone study area, Umbria, Central Italy, where we used spatially distributed information on beddings and terrain information obtained from a 10 × 10-m DEM to determine morpho-structural domains. We exploited the morpho-structural terrain zonation, in combination with landslide information for the same area, to investigate the role of beddings in controlling the distribution and abundance of landslides in the study area. We found that beddings condition the location and abundance of relict and deep-seated landslides, most abundant in cataclinal slopes, and do not condition significantly the shallow landslides. We expect the method to facilitate the production of maps of morpho-structural domains in layered geological environments. This will contribute to a better understanding of landslide phenomena and to foster the preparation of advanced landslide susceptibility and hazard models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The international journal Landslides: Journal of International Consortium on Landslides was established in April 2004. The aims of Landslides are to promote landslide science, technology, and capacity building, and to strengthen global cooperation for landslide risk reduction within the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction (ISDR). The achievements of the first 5 years from the beginning of 2004 (Vol. 1, No. 1) to the mid-2009 (Vol. 6, No. 2) were reviewed in 2009 (). This article presents the review for the second 5-year period from mid-2009 (Vol. 6, No. 3) to the end of 2013 (Vol. 10, No. 6), focusing on the journal's significance and its impact. We include an analysis of the classifications of articles in Landslides. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Italy, rainfall-induced landslides are recurrent phenomena that cause societal and economic damage. Thus, assessing the rainfall conditions responsible for landslides is important and may contribute to reducing risk. The prediction of rainfall-induced landslides relies primarily on empirical rainfall thresholds. However, the thresholds are affected by uncertainties that limit their use in operational warning systems. A source of uncertainty lies in the characterization of the rainfall events responsible for landslides. Objective criteria for the definition of rainfall events are lacking. To overcome the problem, we propose an algorithm that reconstructs the rainfall events, identifies the rainfall conditions that have resulted in landslides, and measures the duration and the cumulated rainfall for the events. The algorithm is independent from the local settings and uses a reduced set of parameters to account for different physical settings and operational conditions. We tested the algorithm in Sicily, Italy, with rainfall and landslide information between January 2002 and December 2012. The rainfall conditions responsible for landslides identified by the algorithm were compared against results obtained manually. The algorithm was proven capable of accurately reconstructing most (87.7 %) of the rainfall events. For each landslide, the algorithm identified a variable number of rainfall conditions responsible for the failures, which are equally likely triggers of the landslide. This opens the possibility of evaluating the uncertainty introduced by different criteria to determine the rainfall events responsible for landslides. Use of the algorithm shall contribute to reducing the uncertainty in the definition of landslide-triggering rainfall events, to compiling large catalogues of rainfall events with landslides and to determining reliable rainfall thresholds for possible landslide occurrence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ten small rock slides (with a volume ranging from 10 to 10 m) on a slope affected by working activities were detected, located, and timed using pictures collected by an automatic camera during 40 months of continuous monitoring with terrestrial SAR interferometry (TInSAR). These landslides were analyzed in detail by examining their pre-failure time series of displacement inferred from high-sampling frequency (approximately 5 min) TInSAR monitoring. In most of these cases, a typical creep behavior was observed with the displacement starting 370 to 12 h before the collapse. Additionally, an evident acceleration decrease of the displacement a few hours before the failure was observed in some rock/debris slides, thus suggesting the possibility of a mechanical feature of the slope that differs from the classical creep theory. The efficacy of the linear Fukuzono approach for the prediction of time of failure was tested by back-analyzing the ten landslides. Furthermore, a modified Fukuzono approach named average data Fukuzono (ADF) was implemented and applied to our dataset. Such an approach is able to improve forecasting effectiveness by reducing the error due to anomalies in the time series of displacement, like the acceleration decrease before failure. A prediction with a temporal accuracy of at least 2 h was obtained for all the analyzed rock/debris slides. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Ancona landslide is a complex, deep-seated landslide displaying composite rotational-translational kinematisms and affecting a large urban area in the Ancona municipality on the Adriatic coast of central Italy. The landslide was reactivated with a large and destructive event on 13 December 1982 following a long period of precipitation and has remained active since. This paper focuses on the estimation of the landslide kinematics (more specifically, the horizontal and vertical components of average yearly velocity) for subsequent estimation of risk for a set of 39 buildings as presented in a companion paper. The study relies both on the processing of inclinometer and radar interferometer monitoring data through statistical procedures. Triggering factors are not investigated. Outputs from the two sets of monitoring data are compared quantitatively and qualitatively. The inherent limitations in available data are discussed. The validity of the quantitative results in the context of the risk estimation effort is discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On October 25, 2011, an extreme rainfall event affected a wide area along the coasts of Cinque Terre (eastern Liguria, northern Italy). Particularly, in the Vernazza catchment, the event triggered hundreds of shallow landslides and a debris flood that caused three casualties. Investigation of the slope stability after the event was carried out aiming at defining the most effective mitigation measures which may be adopted in future land use planning. To this objective, a susceptibility model was produced and a series of scenarios were simulated using probabilistic methods. The susceptibility model has provided information about landslide conditioning factors on which to act for reducing landslide occurrence and therefore the associated risk. The simulations have taken into consideration the following alternative types of mitigation measures: (1) restoration of abandoned terraces, (2) reforestation of abandoned terraces, (3) use of local structural measures over stretches of potentially unstable hillsides and (4) avoidance of any intervention. The advantages and the disadvantages of the proposed mitigation measures for shallow landslide risk are discussed considering the results of the simulations and taking into account their complex interaction with environmental, historical, cultural and socio-economic aspects. The results show that the most effective mitigation strategy for reducing landslide risk at short term consists of applying structural measures over potentially unstable slopes. However, a long-term programme promoting the development of agricultural or forestry practices on terraced slopes is necessary. In fact, the simulations indicate that if no measures are applied to avoid the degradation of the terraced areas, landslide areal frequency would inevitably increase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Third World Landslide Forum was held on 2-6 June 2014 at the China National Convention Center, Beijing, China. This article outlines the background and the objectives of the World Landslide Forums and reports on the organized sessions and published books for the Third World Landslide Forum. During this triennial event of ICL, World Centres of Excellence on Landslide Risk Reduction and IPL Awards for Success, Varnes Medal, Best paper awards, and others were conferred. Through the examination in the high-level panel discussion on the first day and the roundtable discussion on the final day, 2014 Beijing Declaration 'Landslide Risk Mitigation: Toward a Safer Geo-environment' was adopted. It is a document calling to join the planned Sendai partnerships 2015-2024 as a contribution to post-2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Frequent occurrence of landslides in the Chinese Loess Plateau has seriously threatened the urban and rural development. Heifangtai loess platform was selected as a case study for the current research. The platform surface is being largely irrigated since 1968. About 70 landslides of different types have occurred in the region including loess slides, loess flows, combined loess, and bedrock landslides along/across bedding planes. The loess slides occurred in the unsaturated soil and have a shallow failure depth. The loess flows initiated at the contact between loess and underlying clay and can travel a distance of more than 300 m at a speed of up to 5 m/s. Controlled by the topography of the underlying clay layer, the loess flows mainly occurred along the eastern margins of Heifangtai. The combined loess and bedrock landslides along bedding planes typically travel a distance of 30-60 m at a speed of 0.002-0.005 m/s with a volume of up to several million cubic meters. This type of landslide commonly occurred along the southern margins of Heifangtai, where the slope aspects are close to the inclination direction of the bedding planes of underlying bedrocks. Monitoring of perched water table in loess layer at the northern margin of Heifangtai shows the water table is rising at a speed of about 18 cm/year. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The wired and wireless monitoring system installed in the Rebaixader catchment detected six debris flows and 11 debris floods between 2009 and 2012. Apart from results directly related to the processes, many experiences associated with monitoring were collected. Debris flows and debris floods showed clear differences in both the recorded data and field observations. The distinction was especially visible in the stage measurements and the ground vibration registered by the most downstream geophone. At this geophone, a positive relation between the maximum ground vibration and the volume was also observed. The triggering of most events was associated with short, high-intensity rainstorms in summer, but some were also generated in spring, when the melting of snow cover and frozen soil played an additional role. A positive correlation between the volume and both the amount and the intensity of the triggering rainfall was observed. Regarding technical aspects, a switch between a 'no-event' mode with a low sample rate and an 'event' mode with a fast sampling was particularly useful at the station that register the passing of a flow. In addition, the stations, which most recently were installed at Rebaixader, apply wireless devices because wireless techniques include multiple advantages against standard wired systems. Although recorded data or even video images provide detailed information on the debris-flow behavior, we strongly recommend periodic field surveys along the entire torrent to verify and improve the interpretation obtained from the monitoring system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A debris-flow hazard assessment was conducted for the Medano Creek drainage basin, at Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve, following the 2,400 ha Medano Fire in 2010. Debris-flow probability and volume predictions were made using empirical regression models. Model parameters include burn severity, rainfall intensity, topographic characteristics, and soil properties. Model results provided park resource managers with information on potential sub-basin-specific hazards to park visitors, roads, and campsites. Monitoring of the first significant rainfall events following the fire and the resulting debris-flow responses provided means for model validation. Of the three probability models utilized, two predicted high probability of debris-flow occurrence for all sub-basins that produced debris flows, with numerous false positives, while the third failed to predict high probability in any of the sub-basins. The volume model predicted volumes within approximately one order of magnitude higher than those measured. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An ensemble algorithm of data mining decision tree (DT)-based CHi-squared Automatic Interaction Detection (CHAID) is widely used for prediction analysis in variety of applications. CHAID as a multivariate method has an automatic classification capacity to analyze large numbers of landslide conditioning factors. Moreover, it results two or more nodes for each independent variable, where every node contains numbers of presence or absence of landslides (dependent variable). Other DT methods such as Quick, Unbiased, Efficient Statistic Tree (QUEST) and Classification and Regression Trees (CRT) are not able to produce multi branches based tree. Thus, the main objective of this paper is to use CHAID method to perform the best classification fit for each conditioning factors, then, combined it with logistic regression (LR) to find the corresponding coefficients of best fitting function that assess the optimal terminal nodes. In the first step, a landslide inventory map with 296 landslide locations were extracted from various sources over the Pohang-Kyeong Joo catchment (South Korea). Then, the inventory was randomly split into two datasets, 70 % was used for training the models, and the remaining 30 % was used for validation purpose. Thirteen landslide conditioning factors were used for the susceptibility modeling. Then, CHAID was applied and revealed that some conditioning factors such as altitude, soil drain, soil texture and TWI, as terminal nodes and reflected the best classification fit. Then, a proposed ensemble technique was applied and the interpretations of the coefficients showed that the relationship between the decision tree branch nodes distance from drain, soil drain, and TWI, respectively, leads to better consequences assessment of landslides in the current study area. The validation results showed that both success and prediction rates, 75 and 79 %, respectively. This study proved the efficiency and reliability of ensemble DT and LR model in landslide susceptibility mapping. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Throughout the history, many lives have been lost due to landslides. Understanding the process of human flight during landslide events is important in assessing the risks posed by future landslides. This study proposes a model for simulating human flight from a quick shallow landslide along a road, quantifies the flight success rate, and identifies the crucial variables that impact flight efficiency. A questionnaire survey was undertaken along a stretch of highway near Yingxiu, China to collect information regarding human responses and behavior in the face of landslide events. The factors influencing human flight are classified into factors related to the evacuees, the landslide intensity, and the flight path. Subsequently, a flight model is proposed to simulate the movements of people randomly located along a road threatened by landslides. Various components of 'available time' and 'demand time' for escaping from the landslide affected area are treated as random variables. Based on this model, probability analysis is conducted to estimate the flight success rates of the people at risk when fleeing from landslides of various intensities. Sensitivity analysis shows that the pre-failure time and the response time are the most important factors in the flight process. Finally, comparison between the flight success rates from two existing methods and those from the new model is made. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The prediction of landslide movement acceleration is a complex problem, among others identified for deep-seated landslides, and represents a crucial step for risk assessment. Within the scope of this problem, the objective of this paper is to explore a modelling method that enables the study of landslide function and facilitates displacement predictions based on a limited data set. An inverse modelling approach is proposed for predicting the temporal evolution of landslide movement based on rainfall and displacement velocities. Initially, the hydrogeology of the studied landslides was conceptualised based on correlative analyses. Subsequently, we applied an inverse model with a Gaussian-exponential transfer function to reproduce the displacements. This method was tested on the Grand Ilet (GI) and Mare-à-Poule-d'Eau (HB) landslides on Reunion Island in the Indian Ocean. We show that the behaviour of landslides can be modelled by inverse models with a bimodal transfer function using a Gaussian-exponential impulse response. The cumulative displacements over 7 years of modelling (2 years of calibration period for GI, and 4 years for HB) were reproduced with an RMSE above 0.9. The characteristics of the bimodal transfer function are directly related to the hydrogeological functioning demonstrated by the correlative analyses: the rapid reaction of a landslide can be associated with the effect of a preferential flow path on groundwater level variations. Thus, this study shows that the inverse model using a Gaussian-exponential transfer function is a powerful tool for predicting deep-seated landslide movements and for studying how they function. Beyond modelling displacements, our approach effectively demonstrates its ability to contribute relevant data for conceptualising the sliding mechanisms and hydrogeology of landslides. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Landslide risk assessment is often a difficult task due to the lack of temporal data on landslides and triggering events (frequency), run-out distance, landslide magnitude and vulnerability. The probability of occurrence of landslides is often very difficult to predict, as well as the expected magnitude of events, due to the limited data availability on past landslide activity. In this paper, a qualitative procedure for assessing the exposure of elements at risk is presented for an area of the Apulia region (Italy) where no temporal information on landslide occurrence is available. Given these limitations in data availability, it was not possible to produce a reliable landslide hazard map and, consequently, a risk map. The qualitative analysis was carried out using the spatial multi-criteria evaluation method in a global information system. A landslide susceptibility composite index map and four asset index maps (physical, social, economic and environmental) were generated separately through a hierarchical procedure of standardising and weighting. The four asset index maps were combined in order to obtain a qualitative weighted assets map, which, combined with the landslide susceptibility composite index map, has provided the final qualitative landslide exposure map. The resulting map represents the spatial distribution of the exposure level in the study area; this information could be used in a preliminary stage of regional planning. In order to demonstrate how such an exposure map could be used in a basic risk assessment, a quantification of the economic losses at municipal level was carried out, and the temporal probability of landslides was estimated, on the basis of the expert knowledge. Although the proposed methodology for the exposure assessment did not consider the landslide run-out and vulnerability quantification, the results obtained allow to rank the municipalities in terms of increasing exposure and risk level and, consequently, to identify the priorities for designing appropriate landslide risk mitigation plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The UK is a country with limited direct experience of natural disasters. Whilst landslide losses are not negligible and fatalities are rare, accounts are under-reported. Financial losses from landslides are poorly understood but likely to be considerably in excess of £10 million per year. As a result, a strategic management framework has evolved based upon small, low-impact events punctuated by occasional larger events or larger landslides affecting urban areas. We present an overview of the different landslide management mechanisms in the UK and discuss them in context of cases studies to explore their effectiveness. We conclude with three issues that may have implications for landslide management in the UK and other 'low-risk ' countries. Firstly, the evidence base by which landslide hazards and risks are measured is insufficient and limitations in existing information need to be better understood. Secondly, existing guidance on strategic and responsive management needs to be assessed for its fitness for purpose. Thirdly, we encourage debate about the importance of near misses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Faroe Islands in the North Atlantic Ocean are susceptible to flow-type landslides in coarse-grained highly organic colluvium. Following several hazardous debris avalanche events, research work has been initiated to quantify landslide risk. A central task in this work is to predict landslide runout behavior. From numerical simulation of four debris avalanches, this study provides a first screening of which rheology and appertaining input parameters best predict runout behavior of debris avalanches in the Faroe Islands. Three rheologies (frictional, Voellmy, and Bingham) are selected and used for individual back analysis of the events in the numerical models BING and DAN3D. A best fit rheology is selected from comparing predicted and observed landslide runout behavior. General back analysis to identify the optimal input parameters for the chosen rheology is performed by cross validation, where each debris avalanche is modeled with input parameters from the three other events. Optimal input parameters are found from the model run producing the most accurate runout length and velocity. The Bingham is selected as the best fit rheology, a result differing from similar studies of coarse-grained landslides. A reason for why particularly the frictional rheology proves unsuitable is its tendency to produce too long runout lengths of the low-weight runout material, a result showing important limitations for using the frictional rheology in DAN3D. Optimal Bingham input parameters are τ = 980 Pa and μ = 117 Pa/s. However, future studies performed in 2D models are needed for precise parameterization before results can be used for landslide risk assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article offers information on a forum entitled "Landslide Risk Mitigation: Toward a Safer Geo-Environment" organized by the China Geological Survey and International Consortium on Landslides from June 2-6, 2014 to be held at China National Convention Center in Beijing, China.

This paper concerns a regional scale warning system for landslides that relies on a decisional algorithm based on the comparison between rainfall recordings and statistically defined thresholds. The latter were based on the total amount of rainfall, which was cumulated considering different time intervals: 1-, 2- and 3-day cumulates took into account the critical rainfall influencing shallow movements, whilst a variable time interval cumulate (up to 240 days) was used to consider the triggering of deep-seated landslides in low permeability terrains. A prototypal version of the model was initially set up to define statistical thresholds. Then, thresholds were calibrated using a database of past georegistered and dated landslides. A validation procedure showed that the calibration highly improves the results and therefore the model was integrated in the regional warning system of Emilia Romagna (Italy) for civil protection purposes. The proposed methodology could be easily implemented in other similar regions and countries where a sufficiently organised meteorological network is present. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The major scope of the study is the assessment of landslide susceptibility of Flysch areas including the Penninic Klippen in the Vienna Forest (Lower Austria) by means of Geographical Information System (GIS)-based modelling. A statistical/probabilistic method, referred to as Weights-of-Evidence (WofE), is applied in a GIS environment in order to derive quantitative spatial information on the predisposition to landslides. While previous research in this area concentrated on local geomorphological, pedological and slope stability analyses, the present study is carried out at a regional level. The results of the modelling emphasise the relevance of clay shale zones within the Flysch formations for the occurrence of landslides. Moreover, the distribution of mass movements is closely connected to the fault system and nappe boundaries. An increased frequency of landslides is observed in the proximity to drainage lines, which can change to torrential conditions after heavy rainfall. Furthermore, landslide susceptibility is enhanced on N-W facing slopes, which are exposed to the prevailing direction of wind and rainfall. Both of the latter geofactors indirectly show the major importance of the hydrological conditions, in particular, of precipitation and surface runoff, for the occurrence of mass movements in the study area. Model performance was checked with an independent validation set of landslides, which are not used in the model. An area of 15% of the susceptibility map, classified as highly susceptible, 'predicted' 40% of the landslides. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we present a state-of-the-art wireless sensor network (WSN) of deep-earth probes (DEPs) that has been deployed to monitor an active landslide in the Western Ghats mountain range of South India. While India has one of the highest incidences of landslides and landslide-induced fatalities-primarily in the Himalayas of North India and in the Western Ghats of Central and South India-our study is perhaps the first comprehensive attempt to instrumentally detect landslides in the Western Ghats. Wireless networks have enabled us, since June 2009, to continuously monitor the deployment site in real time and from anywhere around the globe. There have been a few earlier landslide monitoring WSNs using accelerometers in Emilia Romagna Apennines, Italy; global navigation satellite system (GNSS) sensors to monitor the Hornbergl landslide, Austria; and vibrating wire stress sensors to monitor a slope in China. We improved upon these WSN systems by incorporating a variety of sensors-piezometers, dielectric moisture sensors, strain gauges, tiltmeters, a geophone, and a weather station-and installing some of these sensors as deep as 20 m below the ground surface. We present the salient aspects of the field deployment of DEPs: the selection of sensors and their incorporation in DEPs, the methodology we used in embedding these DEPs into the soil, and a few of the key aspects of the wireless sensor network. We also present a description of the deployment site and some of the results of geotechnical investigations carried out on borehole corings. Finally, we present the more interesting field data collected from the monitoring system during a rainy season in July and August 2009. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The International Consortium on Landslides (ICL) was established in 2002 and soon became an important world player in the field of landslide risk mitigation; in 2012, it has more than 50 member organizations throughout the world. As a part of the activities to celebrate ICL's tenth anniversary, a strategic document for the second decade called the ICL Strategic Plan 2012-2021 with the motto 'to create a safer geo-environment' was adopted in Kyoto in January 2012. An important part of this document was a clear dedication to broaden the scope and societal impact in a thematic, institutional, and geographic manner. Thus, thematic and regional networks for landslide risk reduction were recognized to be an important form of ICL activities in the decade to come. In this paper, one of the eight newly established thematic and regional ICL networks is presented: the ICL Landslide Monitoring and Warning Thematic Network, a joint effort of ten ICL member organizations and two ICL supporters from eight countries, five of them are active ICL World Centres of Excellence in Landslide Risk Reduction in the period 2011-2014. The general objective of this thematic network is to compare experiences in the field of landslide monitoring and existing/installed (early) warning systems for active landslides in different regions of the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]