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Meeting the goal of reaching zero emissions by 2050 requires profound changes in the production of bulk materials, cement and concrete. For construction sector, this transition is also dependent on the evolution of demand, stemming from changes in the population structure and practice in structural design. Many timelines have been produced suggesting pathways to zero emissions, but none have looked at the required investment level, or the feasibility of transition looking at the level of single plants being shut, transformed or built within a single country. In this paper, we have looked at transition pathways in the United Kingdom as a function of the available funding and the possible emergence of transformative technologies. We find that trade is a necessary component of the transition, allowing for continued construction while the production apparatus is upgraded. Our results further suggest that the current level of investment is consistent with today's carbon price but falls short of what is necessary to achieve net zero by 2050. Finally we find that pathways assuming that CCS will be available at scale are particularly susceptible to overshoot their emissions target if the technological deployment fails to materialise. This is because they combine heavy investments, immature technology and concentrated risk. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon capture usage and storage (CCUS) is emerging as an important solution in delivering deep emissions reductions in energy-intensive industries, enabling hydrogen production, and possibly directly capturing existing carbon dioxide (CO 2) from the atmosphere. The potential for associated new industry activity – for example in CO 2 Transport and Storage (T&S) – could also be important in transitioning economies with legacy investment in oil and gas extraction. This paper addresses the question of how introducing a nascent T&S industry may impact the wider UK economy in the presence of persisting national labour supply constraints. It does so by refining a multi-sector economy-wide computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the UK to run scenarios focussed on the emergence of a nascent sector, involving identification of benchmark activity – here, the existing oil and gas industry – where that nascent sector is not currently represented in national accounting data. Crucially, the CGE model embeds a theoretically and empirically tested wage bargaining function to consider how cost and price pressures triggered will condition dynamic outcomes for producers, consumers and government budgets. Results suggest that emergence of a new T&S industry is likely to deliver sustained net gains in UK employment and GDP. However, maximising T&S-linked jobs gains while minimising displacement of employment and price pressures elsewhere in the economy requires policy action to alleviate labour supply and skills constraints. This reinforces policy and industry recommendations around the need for net zero workforce planning and attention to the potential fiscal implications of taking action, or not/in different timeframes. • Introducing a new CO 2 Transport and Storage industry could boost the UK economy. • Wage responses in a supply constrained labour market substantially condition outcomes. • Wage-cost driven price impacts affect all producers, consumers and government budgets. • Mitigating wage bargaining pressure requires policy action on workforce planning. • Findings reinforce the need for economy-wide and fiscal analysis of net zero actions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research to date has identified cost and lack of support from stakeholders as two key barriers to the development of a carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) industry that is capable of effectively mitigating climate change. This paper responds to these challenges through systematic evaluation of the research and development process for the Acorn CCS project, a project designed to develop a scalable, full-chain CCS project on the north-east coast of the UK. Through assessment of Acorn's publicly-available outputs, we identify strategies which may help to enhance the viability of early-stage CCS projects. Initial capital costs can be minimised by infrastructure re-use, particularly pipelines, and by re-use of data describing the subsurface acquired during oil and gas exploration activity. Also, development of the project in separate stages of activity (e.g. different phases of infrastructure re-use and investment into new infrastructure) enables cost reduction for future build-out phases. Additionally, engagement of regional-level policy makers may help to build stakeholder support by situating CCS within regional decarbonisation narratives. We argue that these insights may be translated to general objectives for any CCS project sharing similar characteristics such as legacy infrastructure, industrial clusters and an involved stakeholder-base that is engaged with the fossil fuel industry. • Cost reduction and stakeholder support are essential for CCS industry development. • Acorn is aimed to develop a full-chain CCS system at minimum cost by the 2020s. • Infrastructure re-use and staged investment and development enable cost reduction. • Stakeholder and local community engagement is key to promote a just transition. • The Acorn experience can be implemented in regions with similar CCS needs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Industrial processes such as Portland cement manufacture produce a large proportion of anthropogenic carbon dioxide and significantly reducing their emissions could be difficult or expensive without carbon capture and storage. This paper explores the idea of synchronising shutdowns for carbon capture and storage installation with major shutdowns required to refurbish major process units at industrial sites. It develops a detailed bottom-up model for the first time and applies it to the United Kingdom's cement industry. This research demonstrates that several policy and technology risks are not identified by the top-down models and it highlights the importance of reducing shut-down times for capture plant construction. Failure to do so could increase installation costs by around 10 per cent. This type of approach, which is complementary to top-down modelling, and the lessons learned from it can be applied to other capital- and energy-intensive industries such as primary steel production. It provides important information about what actions should be prioritised to ensure that carbon capture and storage can be applied without extra unnecessary shutdowns which would increase the overall cost of carbon dioxide mitigation and could delay action, increasing cumulative emissions as well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses a novel digital output using mathematical computation of life cycle sustainability assessment for design decisions on systemic holistic sustainability of technical systems. The computational social life cycle assessment (SLCA) combining the supply chain import data and social hotspot database for interacting countries in entire supply chain indicates that self-generation in electricity sector gives savings in community infrastructure (68%), governance (53%), human rights (50%), labour rights & decent work (24%), and health & safety (8%), SLCA categories compared to electricity import scenarios in the UK. The life cycle assessment shows the carbon-efficient energy systems for net zero greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in increasing order of environmental impacts: hydroelectric, wind, biomass, geothermal and solar (4–76 gCO 2 eq./kWh). The technical and life cycle costing models show that within bioenergy, biomass combined heat and power systems give greater feasibility than microbial fuel cells with a levelized cost of electricity of 0.026 and 0.07 Euro/kWh. TESARREC™ (Trademark: UK00003321198), a novel web-based open-source digital output integrates intrinsic physicochemical, design, operating and systemic characteristics to model and analyse technical systems for sustainability and benchmark/standardise GHG of renewable, biomass and carbon dioxide capture and sequestration strategies for policy directives. [Display omitted] • Advances in mathematical computing and digitalisation for LCSA have been discussed. • Physicochemical-design-operating-systemic influences on technical and LCSA models. • Novel digital platform for a sustainable world: TESARREC™ Trademark: UK00003321198. • Hydroelectric-wind-biomass-geothermal-solar systems analysed for net zero GHG. • Biomass CHP and microbial fuel cell systems technoeconomic models discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]