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The risk stratification of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) for subsequent cardiovascular events could help in guiding prevention strategies. In this study, we aimed at investigating circulating microRNAs as prognostic biomarkers for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in AF patients. We conducted a three-stage nested case–control study within the framework of a prospective registry, including 347 AF patients. First, total small RNA-sequencing was performed in 26 patients (13 cases with MACE) and the differential expression of microRNAs was analyzed. Seven candidate microRNAs with promising results in a subgroup analysis on cardiovascular death were selected and measured via using RT-qPCR in 97 patients (42 cases with cardiovascular death). To further validate our findings and investigate broader clinical applicability, we analyzed the same microRNAs in a subsequent nested case–control study of 102 patients (37 cases with early MACE) by using Cox regression. In the microRNA discovery cohort (n = 26), we detected 184 well-expressed microRNAs in circulation without overt differential expression between the cases and controls. A subgroup analysis on cardiovascular death revealed 26 microRNAs that were differentially expressed at a significance level < 0.05 (three of which with an FDR-adjusted p-value <0.05). We, therefore, proceeded with a nested case–control approach (n = 97) focusing on patients with cardiovascular death and selected, in total, seven microRNAs for further RT-qPCR analysis. One microRNA, miR-411-5p, was significantly associated with cardiovascular death (adjusted HR (95% CI): 1.95 (1.04–3.67)). Further validation (n = 102) in patients who developed early MACE showed similar results (adjusted HR (95% CI) 2.35 (1.17–4.73)). In conclusion, circulating miR-411-5p could be a valuable prognostic biomarker for MACE in AF patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]