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Short-term household electricity load forecasting is important for utility companies to ensure reliable power supplies. Traditional methods for load forecasting relied on historical records from one single data source and have limitations with insufficient or missing data. Recently, an emerging family of machine learning algorithms, multitask learning (MTL), has been developed and has the potential for load forecasting. By MTL, the electricity consumption data from multiple communities can be fused to improve forecasting accuracy. However, appropriate modeling of the relatedness to enable the between-community knowledge transfer remains a challenge. This paper proposes an improved MTL algorithm for a Bayesian spatiotemporal Gaussian process model (BSGP) to characterize the relatedness among the different residential communities. It hypothesizes on the similar impacts of environmental and traffic conditions on electricity consumption in improving short-term load forecasting. Furthermore, this paper proposes a low-ranked dirty model along with an iterative algorithm to improve the learning of model parameters under an MTL framework. This paper uses a real-world case study from two residential communities in Tallahassee, Fl, USA, to demonstrate the method effectiveness. The proposed method significantly outperforms state-of-the-art forecasting methods and effectively captures the relatedness to provide between-community knowledge transfer compared with other MTL methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The remaining useful life (RUL) of transformer insulation paper is largely determined by the winding hot-spot temperature (HST). Frequently the HST is not directly monitored and it is inferred from other measurements. However, measurement errors affect prediction models and if uncertain variables are not taken into account this can lead to incorrect maintenance decisions. Additionally, existing analytic models for HST calculation are not always accurate because they cannot generalize the properties of transformers operating in different contexts. In this context, this paper presents a novel transformer condition assessment approach integrating uncertainty modeling, data-driven forecasting models, and model-based experimental models to increase the prediction accuracy and handle uncertainty. The proposed approach quantifies the effect of measurement errors on transformer RUL predictions and confirms that temperature and load measurement errors affect the RUL estimation. Forecasting results show that the extreme gradient boosting (XGB) algorithm best captures the nonlinearities of the thermal model and improves the prediction accuracy among a number of forecasting approaches. Accordingly, the XGB model is integrated with experimental models in a particle filtering framework to improve thermal modeling and RUL prediction tasks. Models are tested and validated using a real dataset from a power transformer operating in a nuclear power plant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The employment of solar microconverter allows a more detailed monitoring of the photovoltaic (PV) output power at the single module level; thus, machine learning techniques are capable to track the peculiarities of modules in the PV plants, such as regular shadings. In this way, it is possible to compare in real time the day-ahead forecast power with the actual one in order to better evaluate faults or anomalous trends that might have occurred in the PV plant. This paper presents a method for an effective fault diagnosis; this method is based on the day-ahead forecast of the output power from an existing PV module, linked to a microconverter, and on the outcome of the neighbor PV modules. Finally, this paper also proposes the analysis of the most common error definitions with new mathematical formulations, by comparing their effectiveness and immediate comprehension, in view of increasing power forecasting accuracy and performing both real-time and offline analysis of PV modules performance and possible faults. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a novel causality analysis approach called the causal Markov Elman network (CMEN) to characterize the interdependence among heterogeneous time series in multinetwork systems. The CMEN performance, which comprises inputs filtered by Markov property, successfully characterizes various multivariate dependencies in an urban environment. This paper also proposes a novel hypothesis of characterizing joint information between interconnected systems such as electricity and transportation networks. The proposed methodology and the hypotheses are then validated by information theory distance-based metrics. For cross validation, the CMEN is applied to the electricity load forecasting problem using actual data from Tallahassee, Florida. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Measurement and control of electric power quality (PQ) parameters in off-grid systems has played an important role in recent years. The purpose is to detect or forecast the presence of PQ parameter disturbances to be able to suppress or to avoid their negative effects on the power grid and appliances. This paper focuses on several PQ parameters in off-grid systems and it defines three evaluation criteria that are supposed to estimate the performance of a new forecasting model combining all the involved PQ parameters. These criteria are based on common statistical evaluations of computational models from the machine learning field of study. The studied PQ parameters are voltage, power frequency, total harmonic distortion, and flicker severity. The approach presented in this paper also applies a machine learning based model of random decision forest for PQ forecasting. The database applied in this task contains real off-grid data from long-term one-minute measurements. The hyperparameters of the model are optimized by multiobjective optimization toward the defined evaluation criteria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To effectively find an optimal solution in the development process of electrical machines, it is essential to predict machine iron loss and thermal behavior in the predesign stage. Most existing publications only consider thermal behavior by roughly limiting the maximum current density. However, especially for high-speed application, iron loss can also be an essential part in thermal-behavior estimation. This paper proposes a simplified model to efficiently calculate iron loss and thermal behavior in the design procedure of switched reluctance machines. For this purpose, a maximum coenergy loop control method is implemented to facilitate the estimation of flux waveform and machine torque. Three different iron loss calculation methods are compared in terms of accuracy and time. Besides, a simplified lumped parameter thermal network is applied for machine sizing. Furthermore, the impact of number of turns and peak magnetomotive force on the losses and machine sizing is discussed. The efficiency and power density of various machine geometries are comparatively analyzed. Finally, the accuracy of the simplified model is verified by comparison with finite element simulations and experiment results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Short-term forecasting of solar irradiance at a targeted site with consideration of its time series and measurements at neighboring sites is studied in this paper. A data-driven framework for forecasting solar irradiance based on fusing spatial and temporal information is proposed. In the framework, data-driven approaches including boosted regression trees (BRT), artificial neural network, support vector machine, and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator are applied to model spatial dependence among solar irradiance time series thereby to generate forecasts of solar irradiance at the targeted site. A comprehensive comparison among data-driven forecasting models is performed using 30-min averaged data of recent two years. Moreover, benchmarking models including scaled persistence model, autoregressive model, and autoregressive exogenous model are employed to further validate the effectiveness of data-driven forecasting models. Computational results of multiple-steps ahead forecasting demonstrate that the BRT model gives the best performance with the lowest normalized root mean squared error of 18.4%, 24.3%, 27.9%, and 30.6% for forecasting horizons of 30, 60, 90, and 120-min, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An enormous challenge for state estimation (SE) in power distribution networks with high penetration of photovoltaic generators lies in how to deal with measurement uncertainty. Driven by this motivation, an interval arithmetic (IA) based SE is proposed in this paper, which considers interval modeling for measurement uncertainty. The proposed SE is formulated as two interval optimization models based on the unknown-but-bounded theory, and solution bounds of state variables are obtained using a two-stage linear programming approach. In particular, the proposed SE is extended to realistic power distribution networks with mixed microphasor measurement units (μPMU), voltage magnitude, smart meters and feeder terminal units. Case studies and results are illustrated and discussed to demonstrate the performance of the proposed IA-based SE. It could provide the operators intuitive and effective bounds of system states for advanced power industrial applications under consideration of uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy imbalance market (EIM) provides an opportunity that allows larger shares of variable renewable energy sources in the grid. Under highly volatile weather conditions, an accurate forecasting of photovoltaic (PV) power is necessary for grid stability and market operation. Most of existing forecasting methods strongly rely on the accuracy of measurements, and the adaptability of these methods to complex weather conditions is rarely discussed. In this paper, a weather classification multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) forecasting model is introduced for complex weather conditions in all seasons. It can be updated incrementally and its high computational efficiency satisfies EIM operations. A data set that consists of the historical power and meteorological parameters produced by a small-scale PV platform is classified and used to train MARS models with forecast horizons ranging from 15 min to 24 h in different seasons. The tests and analyses results indicate higher accuracy, adaptability, and efficiency of the novel model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As one of the most promising types of fuel cells, the proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs) can be utilized in many applications. However, it still faces two main challenges before large-scale industrial applications, namely short lifetime and high costs. The aim of this paper is to establish an accurate online short-term prognostics method to help users extend the lifetime and reduce the cost of PEMFCs. First, we compare the short-term prognostics accuracy and computational efficiency of several different methods including the Elman neural network, the group method of data handling, the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) with different fuzzy inference system creation strategies, and the wavelet decomposition approach. Test results show that the ANFIS with fuzzy c-means (ANFIS-FCM) strategy has the best short-term prognostics performance. Then, we propose an automatic parameter adjustment method for ANFIS-FCM by using the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm. Test results show that the PSO algorithm can effectively adjust the parameters and achieve improved prognostics results. Finally, the proposed prognostics methods are verified on a PEMFC experimental platform. Experimental results show that the proposed methods have great potential for practical applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Passing cloud results in rapid changes of irradiance. The intermittency of photovoltaic (PV) power output has drawn serious concern especially for utility-scale PV system. Consequently, power ramp-rate control (PRRC) has been introduced to avoid significant PV power fluctuations. PRRC is usually implemented either by curtailing active power output or implementing energy storage system (ESS). However, current active power curtailment cannot deal with the irradiance ramp-down fluctuations, and the high cost of the ESS is still hindering its extensive application. In this paper, two innovative PRRC strategies are presented, which utilize the short-term forecasting. The first solution does not require any ESS, during the power ramp-down event, the PV generation will be curtailed before the actual shading occurs. The second solution requires only one-quarter of the energy capacity of the conventional ESS control strategy. To provide the PV generation forecasts, a dynamic model based on spatio-temporal theory is formulated. The effectiveness of the proposed forecasting model and control strategies have been verified through experiment and case studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A grid-tied microgrid (MG) with a battery energy storage system (BESS) is studied in this paper. The energy storage efficiencies of the BESS are considered to optimize the operational cost of the MG. Two quadratic functions are verified and utilized to formulate the efficiencies of BESS in both charge and discharge process. Afterward, constraints of MG power scheme are investigated based on aforementioned equations. Furthermore, the 24-h ahead forecasting data of photovoltaic (PV) generation and loads demand are also utilized during MG modeling. To minimize the operational electricity cost of the MG in the next 24 h, a nonlinear programming with discontinuous derivatives solver is applied based on the proposed constraints. Additionally, to balance the power flow of MG and reduce the effects of the forecasting error of PV generation, a two steps MG management strategy is therefore developed based on the scheduled power. Experiments are conducted to verify the relationship between battery energy storage efficiency and charging/discharging current of the lithium-ion battery. Moreover, the proposed energy management strategy is validated by the hardware-in-the-loop experiments for real-time MG operation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, a generalized formulation for intelligent energy management of a microgrid is proposed using artificial intelligence techniques jointly with linear-programming-based multiobjective optimization. The proposed multiobjective intelligent energy management aims to minimize the operation cost and the environmental impact of a microgrid, taking into account its preoperational variables as future availability of renewable energies and load demand (LD). An artificial neural network ensemble is developed to predict 24-h-ahead photovoltaic generation and 1-h-ahead wind power generation and LD. The proposed machine learning is characterized by enhanced learning model and generalization capability. The efficiency of the microgrid operation strongly depends on the battery scheduling process, which cannot be achieved through conventional optimization formulation. In this paper, a fuzzy logic expert system is used for battery scheduling. The proposed approach can handle uncertainties regarding to the fuzzy environment of the overall microgrid operation and the uncertainty related to the forecasted parameters. The results show considerable minimization on operation cost and emission level compared to literature microgrid energy management approaches based on opportunity charging and Heuristic Flowchart (HF) battery management. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The performance of the logistic system is one of the most important aspects in regional economy, and the freight volume is the biggest part of the logistic system. In this paper, an information granulation method is introduced to represent the freight volume in a fuzzy manner. After the characteristic features have been extracted from the raw time-series data and represented as information granules, the granules are modeled with the support vector machine (SVM). In consideration of both algorithm efficiency and prediction accuracy, an efficient version of SVM called least square (LS) SVM is employed and integrated with a parameter optimization algorithm, the particle swarm optimization. Simulation results on a real dataset illustrate the performance of the proposed method, and comparison studies are carried out with LS and partial LS-based methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The remaining useful life (RUL) prediction of rolling element bearings has attracted substantial attention recently due to its importance for the bearing health management. The exponential model is one of the most widely used methods for RUL prediction of rolling element bearings. However, two shortcomings exist in the exponential model: 1) the first predicting time (FPT) is selected subjectively; and 2) random errors of the stochastic process decrease the prediction accuracy. To deal with these two shortcomings, an improved exponential model is proposed in this paper. In the improved model, an adaptive FPT selection approach is established based on the $3\sigma$ interval, and particle filtering is utilized to reduce random errors of the stochastic process. In order to demonstrate the effectiveness of the improved model, a simulation and four tests of bearing degradation processes are utilized for the RUL prediction. The results show that the improved model is able to select an appropriate FPT and reduce random errors of the stochastic process. Consequently, it performs better in the RUL prediction of rolling element bearings than the original exponential model. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

On-road sensor systems installed on freeways are used to capture traffic flow data for short-term traffic flow predictors for traffic management, to reduce traffic congestion and improve vehicular mobility. This paper intends to tackle the impractical time-invariant assumptions which underlie the methods currently used to develop short-term traffic flow predictors: 1) the characteristics of current data captured by on-road sensors are assumed to be time invariant with respect to those of the historical data, which is used to developed short-term traffic flow predictors; and 2) the configuration of the on-road sensor systems is assumed to be time-invariant. In fact, both assumptions are impractical in the real world, as the current traffic flow characteristics can be very different from the historical ones, and also the on-road sensor systems are time varying in nature due to damaged sensors or component wear. Therefore, misleading forecasting results are likely to be produced when short-term traffic flow predictors are designed using these two time-invariant assumptions. To tackle these time-invariant assumptions, an intelligent particle swarm optimization (IPSO) algorithm is proposed to develop short-term traffic flow predictors by integrating the mechanisms of PSO, neural network and fuzzy inference system, to adapt to the time-varying traffic flow characteristics and the time-varying configurations of the on-road sensor systems. The proposed IPSO was applied to forecast traffic flow conditions on a section of freeway in Western Australia, whose traffic flow information can be captured on-line by the on-road sensor system. These results clearly demonstrate the effectiveness of using the proposed IPSO for real-time traffic flow forecasting based on traffic flow data captured by on-road sensor systems. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The importance of railway transportation has been increasing in the world. Considering the current and future estimates of high cargo and passenger transportation volume in railways, prevention or reduction of delays due to any failure is becoming ever more crucial. Railway turnout systems are one of the most critical pieces of equipment in railway infrastructure. When incipient failures occur, they mostly progress slowly from the fault-free to the failure state. Although studies focusing on the identification of possible failures in railway turnout systems exist in literature, neither the detection nor forecasting of failure progression has been reported. This paper presents a simple state-based prognostic (SSBP) method that aims to detect and forecast failure progression in electromechanical systems. The method is compared with Hidden-Markov-Model-based methods on real data collected from a railway turnout system. Obtaining statistically sufficient failure progression samples is difficult, considering that the natural progression of failures in electromechanical systems may take years. In addition, validating the classification model is difficult when the degradation is not observable. Data collection and model validation strategies for failure progression are also presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]