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Shorelines face growing threats due to climate change and diminishing sand supply. Coastal headlands, common rocky features along coastlines, are crucial in shaping hydrodynamics and sediment transport. Yet, the influence of future climate conditions, including sea‐level rise (SLR) and intensified storm energy on complex shorelines with headlands has remained relatively unexplored. In this study, we model changes in hydrodynamics and headland bypassing under different SLR and higher storm wave scenarios. Our findings reveal the formation of circulation cells on both sides of a headland, where wave energy converges around the headland zone. Future climate conditions result in larger storm waves on the beach. However, SLR enhances nearshore currents through a landward shifting of the circulation cells, while higher storm waves intensify offshore flow currents due to the seaward movement of the cells. This effect, in turn, increases the potential for headland sediment bypassing. Plain Language Summary: Coastal headlands, prominent rocky features along open coastlines, play a crucial role in protecting nearby beaches from strong waves and erosion. They also affect how sand is exchanged between different beaches. We use a model to explore how future climate conditions including sea‐level rise (SLR) and larger storm waves influence coastal waves, littoral currents, and the transport of sand around headlands. Our findings reveal that headlands converge wave energy forming circulation flow cells. SLR results in stronger nearshore currents, driven by the landward movement of the rotating flow cells. In contrast, larger storm waves can move the rotating flow cells seaward, thereby increasing offshore current strength and the potential for sand transport around the headland. Understanding how coastal waves, flow and sediment transport change under future climate conditions will help determine coastal resilience. Key Points: The formation of circulation cells and wave energy convergence around headlands during storms reduce bottom shear stress at the beachSea‐level rise increases wave heights, currents, and bed shear stress in the nearshore because of landward shifting of the circulation cellsHigher storm waves expand the surf zone, shift circulation cells seaward, and enhance potential headland sediment bypassing [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Alluvial rivers aggrade, incise, and adjust their sediment‐transport rates in response to changing sediment and water supply. Fluvial landforms, such as river terraces, and downstream stratigraphic archives may therefore record information about past environmental change. Using a physically based model describing sediment transport and long‐profile evolution of alluvial rivers, we explore how their responses to environmental change depend on distance downstream, forcing timescales, and whether sediment or water supply is varied. We show that amplitudes of aggradation and incision, and therefore the likelihood of terrace formation, are greater upstream and in shorter and/or wetter catchments. Aggradation and incision, and therefore terrace ages, may also lag behind environmental change. How sediment‐transport rates evolve depends strongly on whether water or sediment supply is varied. Diverse responses to environmental change could arise in natural alluvial valleys, controlled by their geometry and hydrology, with important implications for paleo‐environmental interpretations of fluvial archives. Plain Language Summary: Rivers carry sediment from upland regions, where it is produced by weathering and erosion, to low‐lying areas where it is deposited and stored. This process is sensitive to climate: for example, wetter conditions enhance rivers' capacity to transport sediment, causing rivers to cut into their beds, which in turn remobilizes sediment that is transported downstream. Changing climate may also lead to enhanced sediment production and supply to rivers, causing them to accumulate sediment in their beds. Climate cycles can therefore produce alternating periods of sediment accumulation and removal, resulting in ancient floodplains being abandoned and preserved alongside modern rivers ("terraces"), and in variations in the amounts of sediment delivered downstream. Terraces and patterns of sediment accumulation downstream could therefore provide valuable records of past climatic change. We develop a mathematical model that describes the effects of climatic change on river‐bed height and sediment‐transport rates. We show how the amount and timing of river in‐filling and down‐cutting, and the timescales over which they occur, depend on the rate of climatic change, on river length and associated drainage‐basin area, and on the amount of water it carries. These predictions will facilitate more detailed interpretations of terrace records along rivers and of the sedimentary deposits that they leave behind. Key Points: Alluvial rivers respond in diverse ways to cyclical climatic change depending on their geometry and hydrology and on the forcing frequencyTerrace formation is favored upstream and in shorter and wetter catchments and may lag appreciably behind environmental changeVariation in sediment output lags variation in sediment supply but can lead and be amplified with respect to variation in water supply [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human intervention makes river channels adjust their slope and bed surface grain size as they transition to a new equilibrium state in response to engineering measures. Climate change alters the river controls through hydrograph changes and sea level rise. We assess how channel response to climate change compares to channel response to human intervention over this century (2000–2100), focusing on a 300‐km reach of the Rhine River. We set up a schematized numerical model representative of the current (1990–2020), non‐graded state of the river, and subject it to scenarios for the hydrograph, sediment flux, and sea level rise. We conclude that the lower Rhine River will continue to adjust to past channelization measures in 2100 through channel bed incision. This response slows down as the river approaches its new equilibrium state. Channel response to climate change is dominated by hydrograph changes, which increasingly enhance incision, rather than sea level rise. Plain Language Summary: Humans have modified rivers to enable boat traffic, to protect people against flooding, and to provide them with freshwater and energy. When the shape of a river changes, the amount of sand and gravel (sediment) that can move along its bed also changes. In response, rivers change their slope and bed characteristics, so that they can transport as much sediment as they receive from higher up in the basin. This results in changes in bed level, which becomes higher or lower, causing problems for navigation and flood protection. Climate change makes this worse, because it changes the amount of water flowing down the river, and sea level. This further affects the amount of sediment that can move down the river, therefore causing additional bed level change. Here we study how climate change affects the lower Rhine River (Germany‐Netherlands), over the 21st century. This river has been heavily modified by humans, and its bed has been lowering over hundreds of kilometers. With a computer model, we simulate how different scenarios of climate change affect this behavior. We foresee that the ongoing bed level lowering will continue in the upcoming decades, and that it will be enhanced by climate change. Key Points: Human intervention will continue to govern channel response in the lower Rhine River by 2100, mainly through channel bed incisionClimate change leads to sea level rise and hydrograph adjustment, the latter being dominant and causing enhanced incisionChannel response to human intervention slows down as the river approaches its equilibrium state, but response to climate change accelerates [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The evolution of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) during the Holocene remains controversial because of the lack of reliable proxies. In this study, a link between cross‐front transport and the EAWM was found in the North Yellow Sea, and the EAWM intensity could be imprinted in the leaked sediment, which permits reliable reconstruction of the EAWM on well‐preserved offshore deposition. By comparison with instrumental data, the wind speed of the EAWM since 4.4 ka was quantitatively reconstructed for the first time at high resolution (∼5 yr). The results show that the EAWM gradually weakened in the mid‐to‐late Holocene, which was likely controlled by solar insolation, and that there has been a negative relationship between the EAWM and temperature on the centennial scale since ∼2.0 ka; this relationship was reversed by increasing CO2 emissions during the Current Warm Period. Plain Language Summary: The East Asian monsoon is characterized by a distinct seasonal reversal of monsoon flow driven by temperature differences between the Pacific Ocean and the East Asian continent. It influences more than 2 billion people around East Asia by regulating the risk of drought or flooding. However, the evolution of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) in the mid‐to‐late Holocene remains elusive, limiting our understanding of its driving force and projections under climate change. This study analyzed sediment transport dynamics under varying winter monsoons in the North Yellow Sea. It was found that coastal sediments could be transported offshore, and their pathways differed under different strengths of the winter monsoon. Based on the sedimentary records of offshore muddy deposition, the EAWM proxy was extracted, and the wind speed of the EAWM from 4.4 ka was quantitatively reconstructed. A gradual weakening trend during 4.4–0.7 ka and a dramatic strengthening after 0.2 ka were found in the EAWM; the EAWM was negatively related to the temperature on the centennial scale since ∼2.0 ka, but this relationship was reversed by an increase in CO2 emissions since ∼1800 CE, indicating a shift in the controlling mechanism. Key Points: A link between cross‐front transport and the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) was found in the shelf sea, and the leaked sediment was used to reconstruct the EAWMThe wind speed of the EAWM since 4.4 ka was quantitatively reconstructed at high resolution (∼5 yr) for the first timeCorrelation between the EAWM and the temperature on the centennial scale since ∼2.0 ka was reversed by the increasing CO2 at the Current Warm Period [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assessing rivers' and hillslopes' sensitivity to external forcing is paramount to understand landscape evolution, in particular as a response to Quaternary climate changes. River networks are usually considered to be the main conveyors of environmental signals, such as changes in precipitation, temperature, or baselevel. Yet because hillslopes provide the source of sediment for river networks, their response to environmental change also modulates landscape dynamics. In order to characterize such behavior, we analyze the response times of a transport‐limited hillslope. We use simple numerical models of denudation to study hillslope responses to oscillatory forcing and understand their filtering effects on environmental signals. Modifications in the frequency of climate oscillation, such as the change that occurred at the Mid‐Pleistocene Transition, can significantly modulate hillslope sediment‐flux response. We infer a wide range of hillslope responses, ranging from negligible change over the full range of climate‐forcing frequencies, to a significant filtering of long‐period signals. Plain Language Summary: Landscapes are constituted of hillslopes and rivers where different types of erosion and sediment transport processes take place. Due to their large extent, river networks are an important driver of global landscape response to climatic or tectonic changes. Hillslopes have smaller dimensions but are also where most sediment production occurs and for that reason it is important to have a good understanding of how they respond to perturbations. We use simple numerical models of hillslope evolution to study the influence of oscillating changes of either the efficiency of sediment transport across the hillslope or the rate of channel downcutting at its base. Our results indicates that the period of oscillations for these perturbations controls the amplitude of the sediment flux response out of the hillslope, and provide a framework to understand how this landscape component reacts to climatic cycles such as the glacial/inter‐glacial oscillations of the Quaternary. For example, a major change occurred 800 ka ago with a shift in climate oscillation from 40 to 100 ka period. Our models suggest that in some landscapes this change in period alone could have induced a significant decrease in the amplitude of hillslope sediment flux response. Key Points: A complex hillslope dynamics is associated with the linear to nonlinear sediment flux transitionHillslopes filtering potential of external signals is highly contrasted depending on the type of forcingChanges in the climatic signal frequency at the Mid‐Pleistocene Transition could induce a significant shift in hillslope erosional response [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Models of alongshore sediment transport during quiescent conditions, storm‐driven barrier island morphology, and poststorm dune recovery are integrated to assess decadal barrier island evolution under scenarios of increased sea levels and variability in storminess (intensity and frequency). Model results indicate barrier island response regimes of keeping pace, narrowing, flattening, deflation (narrowing and flattening), and aggradation. Under lower storminess scenarios, more areas of the island experienced narrowing due to collision. Under higher storminess scenarios, more areas experienced flattening due to overwash and inundation. Both increased sea levels and increased storminess resulted in breaching when the majority of the island was not keeping pace and deflation was the dominant regime due to increased overtopping. Under the highest storminess scenario, the island was unable to recover elevation after storms and drowned in just 10 years. Plain Language Summary: Barrier islands protect mainland coastal communities during storms. In the future, the effects of storms and sea level rise (SLR) threaten barrier islands with increased inundation and loss of land. Barrier islands can keep pace with SLR by moving sand across the island during storm events to maintain height and width. However, if storms are too intense or sea levels are too high, the island may drown. This study uses computational models to assess the future response of a barrier island to higher sea levels and changes in frequency and intensity of storms (storminess). We found that the barrier island exhibits five behaviors in response to storms and SLR: keeping pace by maintaining height and width, losing width but maintaining height, losing height but maintaining width, losing height and width, and gaining height and width. These behaviors shifted based on the amount of SLR and storminess. Both increased SLR and increased storminess resulted in less of the island keeping pace and more of the island losing height and width; in some cases, this caused channels to be cut through the island. Under the most frequent and intense storm scenarios, the island lost significant amounts of land and was unable to recover. Key Points: Decadal barrier island behaviors shift in response to changes in sea level and storminessIncreased sea levels and storminess may cause island deflation and increase vulnerability to breachingBarrier island drowning may occur in a duration of only 10 years under high storminess and sea level rise [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We evaluate changes to subglacial sediment discharge during glacier retreat by considering ice dynamics, bedrock erosion, and sediment transport processes. Coupling these components together within a single framework, we simulate sediment discharge from synthetic alpine glaciers experiencing accelerated glacier melt for 100 years. We find that sediment discharge increases by about 8 times the steady glacier values by the end of the simulation. The enhanced sediment discharge persists through peak water discharge and despite annual bedrock erosion volume decreasing by approximately 30% from the initial value. The greater sediment discharge results from increased melt at the glaciers' higher region, where transport was limited prior to glacier retreat. These findings suggest that large increases in sediment discharge may occur as glaciers retreat. The magnitude of the sediment discharge increase primarily depends on the quantity of sediment stored subglacially. Plain Language Summary: Changes to sediment discharge from glaciers can dramatically impact downstream communities and ecosystems. We account for two primary processes that largely control to sediment discharge from glaciers: (1) bedrock erosion, which creates sediment below the glacier and (2) the ability of meltwater below the glacier to carry this sediment. To understand the potential changes in sediment discharge as glaciers retreat, we link numerical models of both processes and run them in a scenario that complies with ongoing climate warming. In the scenario, we find that sediment discharge increases dramatically, despite smaller quantities of sediment being produced by bedrock erosion. This is because more meltwater higher on the glaciers increases sediment transport in these upper regions. Results here suggest that future subglacial sediment discharge depends on the amount of sediment that already exists below glaciers. Large increases in subglacial sediment discharge are possible. Key Points: We present a coupled system of models that represent ice dynamics, bedrock erosion, and sediment transport processesLarge increases in subglacial sediment discharge occur in response to simulated glacier retreatRising equilibrium line altitudes drive increased sediment discharge by allowing meltwater to access greater amounts of subglacial sediment [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The role of vegetation in shaping the geomorphology of rivers and deltas, along with tidal and estuarine environments, is widely recognized. While mutual interactions between flow, plant canopy, and morphodynamics have been extensively investigated, similar studies considering plant roots are limited. Here we present results from a numerical model that quantify the feedbacks of both the aboveground and belowground vegetation on gravel bed river morphodynamics. Plant root biogeomorphic feedbacks, that is, uprooting and root‐enhanced riverbed cohesion, are quantified through the description of the vertical root distribution. By investigating the evolution of the riverbed of a straight gravel channel with a vegetated patch, we show that uprooting is the primary plant root biogeomorphic feedback determining the evolution of the riverbed and the competing influence of the potential flow erosion versus uprooting depth mediates the plant root controls on morphodynamics. These findings broaden our understanding on the role played by plant roots on gravel bed river morphodynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Records of fluvial suspended sediment fluxes are sensitive indicators of hydrometeorological and permafrost change. Here we document the watershed‐scale suspended sediment flux response to a period of hydrometeorological change and landscape disturbance in two High Arctic rivers. Net in‐channel and extra‐channel sediment storage and changing hydrometeorological conditions dampen the downstream transport of increased sediment delivery from localized permafrost slope disturbances. Our results show that the impact of permafrost disturbance is likely a smaller effect than a shift toward a pluvially (rainfall) dominated hydrological regime in these environments. Suspended sediment transport is energy limited under contemporary hydrometeorological conditions, and the transition from a nival to pluvial dominated flow and sediment transfer regime will likely accelerate landscape change in the High Arctic. Plain Language Summary: The long‐term impact and response of High Arctic river systems to climate and landscape change remain poorly constrained. We investigate the effects of climate and permafrost change on sediment transport in two High Arctic rivers in Canada (75°N) during a period of rapid climate change and landscape disturbance using a 15‐year record of suspended sediment export—the longest record of its kind in the High Arctic. We find that increased sediment erosion from permafrost landscape disturbances has not increased the downstream‐suspended sediment export beyond an immediate, short‐lived response due to (1) the rivers ability to store additional sediment and (2) offsetting hydroclimatic controls. Our findings further suggest that these river systems are potentially in a transition period, shifting from a snowmelt to a rainfall dominated flow regime, but current rainfall magnitudes are below a critical threshold to mobilize additional sediment in these systems. We conclude that increased rainfall magnitude is likely to be the tipping point to significant long‐term geomorphic change and downstream effects in the Canadian High Arctic. Key Points: High Arctic fluvial systems moderate the response of increased sediment delivery from localized disturbances through in‐channel storageNival generated geomorphic energy has decreased over time, coincident with the increased importance of sporadic pluvial eventsModern rainfall magnitudes are typically below the threshold to cause widespread mobilization of additional sediment in these systems [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hydrological connectivity in coastal deltas is important for delivering flow, sediment, and nutrients to the island interiors. The roughness of island vegetation limits connectivity, but how important is the spatial distribution of vegetation? Using hydrodynamic modeling, we test the influence of vegetated percent cover, patch size, and stem density on the discharge‐fraction allocated to the islands of an idealized delta complex, modeled after Wax Lake Delta. We find that heterogeneity has negligible effects when vegetation is relatively sparse but is important when vegetation is relatively dense and covers less than a "disconnectivity" threshold of 40–50% of the islands, near the theoretical percolation limit. Below this threshold, preferential flow paths develop in the islands, which alter the hydraulics and residence time distribution of the delta complex and enhance potential sediment transport with respect to model runs with uniform vegetation. Patchiness has hydrogeomorphic and biogeochemical implications, which should be considered when modeling deltaic systems. Plain Language Summary: Coastal river deltas are vulnerable regions of tremendous economic and ecological importance. The long‐term sustainability of deltaic systems depends in part on the delivery of water, sediment, and nutrients to the interior of deltaic islands. The vegetated wetlands within these islands are typically hot spots of land growth and biological nutrient removal, which can counteract land loss and prevent the expansion of coastal oxygen‐depleted zones. Increasing the amount of island vegetation is known to decrease the fraction of flow that enters the islands, but it has yet to be shown how the spatial arrangement of vegetation patches affects this channel‐island "hydrological connectivity." In the present study, we numerically model flows in a simplified river delta to determine the influence of three vegetation characteristics on connectivity: the percentage of the island covered by patches, patch size, and patch density (how tightly packed the vegetation is within each patch). We find that all three characteristics can increase connectivity when compared to similar model runs with spatially uniform vegetation. More specifically, the spatial configuration becomes important when patches are dense and cover less than 40–50% of the deltaic islands. The results of this study have implications for our ability to model the success of restoration projects. Key Points: Channel‐island hydrological connectivity in river deltas is affected by the patchiness of vegetation within deltaic islandsIsland water and solute transport is dominated by preferential flow paths below a "disconnectivity" threshold of 40–50% vegetated coverPatchiness increases potential sediment transport and alters residence time distributions, with implications for modeling deltaic systems [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]