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Atmospheric Rivers (ARs), corridors of intensive water vapor transport, have received much attention recently due to their potentially large economic and societal impacts. However, a comprehensive understanding of the interannual variability of ARs over East Asia is still lacking. This study examines the frequency of AR occurrence over East Asia based on the EAR5 reanalysis. It is shown that the frequency of AR occurrence over East Asia displays obvious seasonality, with its peak in early boreal summer. ARs contribute to up to 50% of total precipitation and largely modulate the interannual variability of precipitation in East Asia during early boreal summer. The interannual variability of ARs over East Asia during early boreal summer is largely controlled by the Indo-western Pacific Ocean Capacitor (IPOC) effect, which is mainly triggered by El Niño-Southern Oscillation and sometimes by Indian Ocean dipole. During early boreal summer, a higher frequency of AR occurrence over East Asia is associated with anomalous anticyclonic circulation (AAC) over the Indo-western Pacific region. The AAC, the atmospheric signal of the IPOC mode, indicates an enhanced East Asian summer monsoon and a northwestward shift of the western North Pacific subtropical high, favoring the AR occurrence over East Asia. This study illustrates that a strong positive Indian Ocean dipole event could impact AR activity over East Asia in the following summer by triggering the IPOC effect. The IPOC-related signals 2–4 months ahead could be useful to predict the AR occurrence over East Asia during early boreal summer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects phase 6 abrupt-4xCO2 scenario, this study investigates the sea surface salinity (SSS) and hydrological cycle changes in response to global warming in the tropical Atlantic and tropical eastern Pacific. The analysis results reveal the enhancement of the global water cycle and the effect of El Niño-like sea surface temperature (SST) warming. Under global warming, inter-basin water vapor transports increase by about 0.11 Sv (19%) from the tropical Atlantic to the Pacific in response to the rise of the freshwater flux gradient between the two basins. The increase of specific humidity dominates the enhancement of moisture transport (contribution of about 85%), resulting in an SSS decrease in the tropical Pacific and an increase in the tropical Atlantic. On seasonal scales, the increase of the trans-basin SST gradient leads to the enhancement and westward shift of the Walker Circulation in summer and autumn (contribution of 31% in August to 47% in November), further resulting in the precipitation increase and the salinity decrease in the tropical Pacific. Furthermore, the El Niño-like SST warming induces a wind-evaporation-SST feedback in the tropical eastern Pacific. The reduced SST meridional gradient weakens the atmospheric circulation, redistributing the trans-basin water vapor transport. Correspondingly, precipitation (salinity) decreases (increases) in the northeastern Pacific and increases (decreases) in the southeastern Pacific, following the "warmer-get-wetter" mechanism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, daily outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) product is used to detect the atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). A 50–80-day ISO is identified south of the equator, peaking in boreal winter and propagating eastward. The mechanisms underneath are investigated using observational data and reanalysis products. The results suggest that the 50–80-day atmospheric ISO is enhanced by ocean dynamic processes during December–January. Monsoon transition in October–November causes large wind variability along the equator. Equatorial sea surface height/thermocline anomalies appear off Sumatra due to the accumulative effects of the wind variability, leading the atmospheric 50–80-day ISO by ~ 5–6 weeks. The wind-driven ocean equatorial dynamics are reflected from the Sumatra coast as downwelling oceanic Rossby waves, which deepen the thermocline and contribute to the SST warming in the southeastern TIO, affecting local atmospheric conditions. It offers insights into the role of ocean dynamics in the intensification of 50–80-day atmospheric ISOs over the eastern TIO and explains the seasonal peak of the eastward-propagating ISO during boreal winter. These results have implications for intraseasonal predictability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Argo observations revealed dramatic sea surface salinity (SSS) changes in the northeastern tropical Pacific Ocean (NETPO) during the past one and half decades, with a steady increase during 2004–2012 and a sharp decrease during 2013–2016. These changes mainly result from anomalous precipitation associated with the Walker Circulation through moisture transport across Central America. The anomalous Walker Circulation is caused by changes in trans-basin sea surface temperature (SST) gradients, especially those in the eastern tropical Pacific. Results using a longer reanalysis indicate that the upward trend of SSS in the NETPO started from the mid-1990s as the moisture transport across Central America decreased in response to reduced trans-basin SST gradients associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the tracks of category 4 and 5 typhoons (TYs) in the western North Pacific (WNP) in November–December during 1979–2016 and their relationships with the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) including the 30–60-day and 12–25-day variations. It is shown that the impact of ISO on the TY tracks found in previous studies is mainly contributed by the quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO). The impact on the TY tracks is through influence on the steering flows over the WNP. Accordingly, TYs are separated into two types: moving westward (TYW) and northeastward (TYE). QBWO in the WNP is associated with an active convection originated from the equatorial WNP, which propagates northwestward and reaches the SCS and middle-high latitudes. TYW mostly occurs in the decline stage of the QBWO life cycle, while TYE appears in the mature stage of QBWO. For TYW, QBWO hardly changes the background large-scale circulation, which features an anticyclonic circulation covering the entire WNP and SCS, thus TYW moves westward. However, TYE appears in the mature phase of QBWO. The strong convection induces an intense cyclonic circulation in western part of the WNP, thus changes the steering flow. The steering flow features an anticyclonic circulation over the mid-eastern WNP, which is favorable for TYE to divert the direction and move northeastward. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the influence of southeast tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO) sea surface temperature (SST) warming on Indo-Pacific climate during the decaying phase of the 2015/16 El Niño by using observations and model experiments. The results show that the SETIO SST warming in spring 2016 enhanced local convection and forced a “C-shape” wind anomaly pattern in the lower troposphere. The “C-shape” wind anomaly pattern over the eastern tropical Indian Ocean consists of anomalous westerly flow south of the equator and anomalous easterly flow north of the equator. The anomalous easterly flow then extended eastward into the western North Pacific (WNP) and facilitates the development or the maintenance of an anomalous anticyclone over the South China Sea (SCS). Correspondingly, the eastern part of the Bay of Bengal, the SCS and the WNP suffered less rainfall. Such precipitation features and the associated “C-shape” wind anomaly pattern shifted northward about five latitudes in summer 2016. Additionally, the SETIO warming can induce local meridional circulation anomalies, which directly affect Indo-Pacific climate. Numerical model experiments further confirm that the SETIO SST warming plays an important role in modulating Indo-Pacific climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the 10 years sea surface salinity (SSS) data from Argo, we identified a salinity dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean, termed S-IOD: a pattern of interannual SSS variability with anomalously low-salinity in the central equatorial and high-salinity in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean. The S-IOD matures in November-December, lagging the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) mode derived from sea surface temperature (SST) by 2 months. For the period of observations, the S-IOD persists longer than the IOD, until the following September-October. Oscillations of the two S-IOD poles are governed by different processes. Ocean advection associated with equatorial current variability dominates the SSS anomalies of the northern pole, while surface freshwater flux variability plays a key role in the SSS anomalies of the southern pole, where anomalous precipitation is sustained by preformed sea surface temperature anomalies. The S-IOD concurs with the strong IOD, reflecting an ocean-atmosphere coupling through the SST-precipitation-SSS feedback. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the impact of the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) on tropical cyclone (TC) tracks in the South China Sea (SCS) during 1970-2010. About one third of TCs in the SCS move eastward, while the other two thirds move westward. In the TC genesis peak seasons of June-October (JJASO), the westward moving TCs are controlled by the background TC steering flow of easterly, and the eastward moving TCs by the TC steering flow induced by the ISO. The outgoing longwave radiation and wind fields show that the eastward moving TCs were mostly along the main axis of strong TC steering flow anomaly of westerly associated with the ISO, while the westward moving TCs were only weakly associated with the ISO. An experiment performed with a simple two-level model further confirmed the result. The interannual variation of TC tracks in the SCS is also discussed. It is found that the steering flow anomalies in the SCS mostly favor eastward moving TCs in central Pacific (CP) El Niño and eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño years. However, the eastward flow anomalies are too weak to have strong influence on the majority of the TCs. During La Niña years, TCs in the SCS tend to move westward, possibly related to the westward steering flow anomalies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the roles of water vapor transport and sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) on the heavy rainfall in central China during the boreal early summer (May–June–July). In the past four decades, four significant rainfall events, in 1983, 1998, 2016, and 2020, occurred in central China and caused severe floods, and the year 2020 has the most extreme event. All four events are associated with significant TIO SST warming and a strong anomalous anticyclone on the western North Pacific (WNPAC). The anomalous winds in the northwestern flank of the WNPAC bring excess water vapor into central China. The water vapor, mainly carried from the western tropical Pacific, converges in central China and result in heavy rainfall. A theory of regional ocean–atmosphere interaction can well explain the processes, called the Indo-Western Pacific Ocean Capacitor (IPOC) effect. The WNPAC is usually associated with strong El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), except for the 2020 case. The 2020 event is extraordinary without a significant El Niño occurred in the previous winter. In 2020, the significant TIO warming sustained the anomalous WNPAC, inducing the most significant extreme rainfall event in central China. This study reveals that the IPOC effect can dramatically influence the East Asian climate even without involving the ENSO in the Pacific. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study investigates the influence of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) on the South Asian and East Asian summer monsoon rainfall and associated ocean-atmospheric conditions in 24 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. The observations illustrate significant negative precipitation anomalies over the Central India and Central China (CICC) regions in response to positive IPO during the summer season. Almost two-thirds of the models could well represent the IPO pattern as in observations with strong sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the central to eastern Pacific and cooling in the north and south-central Pacific. CMIP6 models are classified into two groups based on the area-averaged regression of precipitation over the CICC region. Models in group 1 (G1), representation of IPO–CICC teleconnections, are somewhat similar to the observations, while in group 2 (G2), models underestimate the IPO–CICC relationship. Low-level anomalous anticyclonic circulation anomalies and moisture divergence contribute to precipitation reduction in observations and G1 models over the CICC region. In addition, the large-scale divergence at the lower level, along with the high-level convergence across the CICC region, corresponding to IPO, is as strong in the G1 models as in the observations. However, G2 models are not able to represent these circulation patterns and therefore not able to represent the IPO–CICC teleconnections well. Overall, G1 models can represent large-scale air-sea interactions across the Indo-Pacific region associated with an IPO. This study highlights the importance of capturing/simulating the reliable large-scale circulation patterns related to IPO in coupled models to capture the IPO–CICC teleconnections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the interannual modes of the tropical Pacific using salinity from observations, ocean reanalysis output and CMIP6 products. Here we propose two indices of sea surface salinity (SSS), a monopole mode and a dipole mode, to identify the El Niño—South Oscillation (ENSO) and its diversity, respectively. The monopole mode is primarily controlled by atmospheric forcing, namely, the enhanced precipitation that induces negative SSS anomalies across nearly the entire tropical Pacific. The dipole mode is mainly forced by oceanic dynamics, with zonal current transporting fresh water from the western fresh pool into the western-central and salty water from the subtropics into the eastern tropical Pacific. Under a global warming condition, an increase in the monopole and dipole mode variance indicates an increase in both the central and eastern Pacific El Niño variability. The increase in central Pacific El Niño variability is largely due to enhanced vertical stratification during global warming in the upper layer, with intensified zonal advection. An eastern Pacific El Niño-like warming pattern contributes to the increase in eastern Pacific El Niño, with enhanced precipitation over the central-eastern tropical Pacific. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall during 2016 exhibited a prominent month-to-month fluctuations over India, with below normal rainfall in June and August and above normal rainfall in July. The factors determining the month-to-month fluctuations in ISM rainfall during 2016 are investigated with main focus on the Indo-Pacific climatic anomalies. Warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with super El Niño 2015 disappeared by early summer 2016 over the central and eastern Pacific. On the other hand, negative Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) like SST anomaly pattern over the equatorial Indian Ocean and anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the western North Pacific (WNP) are reported in summer 2016 concurrently with decaying El Niño/developing La Niña phase. Observations revealed that the low rainfall over central north India in June is due to moisture divergence caused by the westward extension of ridge corresponding to WNP anticyclone and subsidence induced by local Hadley cell partly related to negative IOD. Low level convergence of southeasterly wind from Bay of Bengal associated with weak WNP anticyclone and northwesterly wind corresponding to anticyclonic circulation over the northwest India remarkably contributed to positive rainfall in July over most of the Indian subcontinent. While reduced rainfall over the Indian subcontinent in August 2016 is associated with the anomalous moisture transport from ISM region to WNP region, in contrast to July, due to local cyclogenesis corroborated by number of tropical cyclones in the WNP. In addition to this, subsidence related to strong convection supported by cyclonic circulation over the WNP also resulted in low rainfall over the ISM region. Coupled General Circulation model sensitivity experiments confirmed that strong convective activities associated with cyclonic circulation over the WNP is primarily responsible for the observed negative ISM rainfall anomalies in August 2016. It is noted that the Indo-Western Pacific circulation anomalies in August 2016 are well predicted when the coupled model is initiated with initial conditions from end of July and beginning of August compared to May. This analysis suggests the importance of the WNP circulation in forcing strong sub-seasonal/month to month rainfall variations over India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The excessive cold tongue error in the equatorial Pacific has persisted in several generations of climate models. Based on the historical simulations and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 experiments in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model ensemble (MME), this study finds that models with an excessive westward extension of cold tongue and insufficient equatorial western Pacific precipitation tend to project a weaker east-minus-west gradient of sea surface temperature (SST) warming along the equatorial Pacific under increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. This La Niña-like error of tropical Pacific SST warming is consistent with our understanding of negative SST-convective feedback over the western Pacific warm pool. Based on this relationship between the present simulations and future projections, the present study applies an 'observational constraint' of equatorial western Pacific precipitation to calibrate the projections of tropical Pacific climate change. After the corrections, CMIP5 models robustly project an El Niño-like warming pattern, with a MME mean increase by a factor of 2.3 in east-minus-west gradient of equatorial Pacific SST warming and reduced inter-model uncertainty. Corrections in projected changes in tropical precipitation and atmospheric circulation are physically consistent. This study suggests that a realistic cold tongue simulation would lead to a more reliable tropical Pacific climate projection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interannual-to-decadal variability and trends of sea level in the South China Sea (SCS) are studied using altimetric data during 1993-2012 and reconstructed sea level data from 1950-2009. The interannual variability shows a strong seasonality. Surface wind anomalies associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation explain the sea-level anomaly pattern in the interior SCS, while Rossby waves radiated from the eastern boundary dominate the sea-level variability in the eastern SCS. Decadal variability of sea level in the SCS follows that in the western tropical Pacific, with large variance found west of Luzon Island. Local atmospheric forcing makes a negative contribution to decadal variability in the central SCS, and Rossby waves radiated from the eastern boundary appear to be important. During 1993-2012, decadal sea level averaged in the SCS is significantly correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) ( r = −0.96). The decadal variability associated with the PDO accounts for most part of sea-level trends in the SCS in the last two decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study examines the long-term evolution of the Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) in the south Indian Ocean (SIO) based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) extended simulations through 2300 under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5). The SAMW in the SIO shrinks and thins rapidly during the fast radiative forcing increasing period between 2000 and 2100. After 2100, when the radiative forcing stabilizes, the SAMW expands and thickens slowly. The response of SAMW is dependent both on the evolution of surface buoyancy forcing and overlying westerly wind stress. During year 2000–2100, the surface heat flux dominates the net buoyancy gain over the SAMW formation region, whereas the enhanced westerly wind contributes to a lesser extent due to its poleward shift. As the radiative forcing increases rapidly from 2000 to 2100, the buoyancy gain over the SAMW formation region results in a fast shoaling mixed layer and a reduction in the SAMW subduction rate. The surface intensified warming enhances stratification and reduces the SAMW that is quantified by the volume of low potential vorticity (PV) water. Consequently, the SAMW shrinks and thins fastly. When the radiative forcing stabilizes after 2100, the warming is greater in the subsurface than the surface, and the associated slow destratification gradually increases the low PV water volume. Hence, the SAMW expands and thickens slowly. The distinct fast and slow responses of SAMW have implications for the heat uptake and circulation of the SIO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate response to low warming scenarios that meet 2015 Paris Agreement is distinct from that to the medium/high-emissions scenarios analyzed in previous studies. The present study investigates changes in the North Pacific subtropical gyre and the underlying mechanisms under 1.5 °C low warming scenario by 11-member ensemble simulations from the Community Earth System Model. Specifically, atmospheric CO2 concentration peaks in 2036 and then decreases, with global mean surface temperature (GMST) first increasing and then stabilizing after 2045. The changes of the lower thermocline depth are consistently weaker in the subtropics than in the tropics or high latitudes through 2100. During GMST increasing stage, the subtropical circulation strengthens in the upper 1000 m north of 30° N as a result of the enhanced wind stress. When GMST stabilizes, the subtropical circulation strengthens in the surface layer (0–150 m) and the main thermocline (150–600 m) but displays insignificant change in the intermediate layer (600–1000 m). Wind and stratification changes are both important in driving the North Pacific subtropical gyre changes, because sea surface warming is much weaker in the low warming scenario than that in the medium/high-emissions scenarios. In addition, as the surface wind change displays substantial natural variability and is strongly model-dependent, it dominates the differences in projected subtropical circulation changes across models. This study highlights the importance of wind changes in projections of the subtropical circulation changes under low warming scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

El Niño induces an anomalous lower-tropospheric anticyclone over the tropical Northwest Pacific (NWP), accompanied by suppressed local convection and rainfall. The tropical NWP anomalies persist until the following summer, with major effects on the Asian summer monsoons. Based on the phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) multi-model ensemble, this study finds that climate models commonly underestimate this El Niño-NWP teleconnection with too weak tropical NWP anticyclone and rainfall anomalies in post-El Niño summers, potentially limiting the models' skill in seasonal prediction of the Asian summer monsoons. The analyses show that such underestimated NWP anomalies in post-El Niño summers in CMIP5 models can be traced back to the well-known excessive equatorial Pacific cold tongue error in the mean. Models with an excessive westward extension of Pacific cold tongue tend to displace westward the simulated pattern of El Niño-related warm SST anomalies along the equator. The warm SST biases over the western Pacific in CMIP5 models would enhance the local atmospheric convection/rainfall and induce low-level cyclonic circulation anomalies over the tropical NWP with a Gill-type Rossby wave response, resulting in the commonly underestimated NWP anticyclone and rainfall anomalies during post-El Niño summers. The present results, along with our previous finding that the equatorial cold tongue bias would distort the projections of tropical Pacific warming pattern under increased greenhouse gas scenario, imply that reducing equatorial cold tongue bias in models can substantially improve climate simulation and prediction/projection for the tropical Pacific and Asian monsoons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study re-explores the roles of tropical SST anomalies in modulating the anomalous cyclone over the Indo-western Pacific during strong La Niña decaying years via a series of numerical experiments. The results suggest that central to eastern equatorial Pacific cooling, western north Pacific (WNP) warming, and Indian Ocean cooling all contribute to the Indo-western Pacific cyclonic wind anomalies. The WNP SST anomalies play a role via a Rossby wave-type response. As the positive SST anomalies in the WNP decay, the local forcing effect decays as well. The Indian Ocean remote forcing seems to play an important role during boreal summer via cold Kelvin wave induced cyclonic shear and boundary layer convergence. During strong La Niña decaying years, the negative SST anomalies in the equatorial central to eastern Pacific can maintain and persist into summer. Such cooling could induce anomalous Walker circulation with ascending branch over the Maritime Continent to Philippines and descending branch over central to eastern Pacific, which links the WNP climate to the equatorial central and eastern Pacific SST anomalies. The convective heating over the WNP induced remotely by central to eastern Pacific cooling in turn forces atmospheric Rossby wave to its west, which may amplify the anomalous cyclone over the Indo-western Pacific. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The performance of 21 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models in the simulation of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode is evaluated. Compared to CMIP3, CMIP5 models exhibit a similar spread in IOD intensity. A detailed diagnosis was carried out to understand whether CMIP5 models have shown improvement in their representation of the important dynamical and thermodynamical feedbacks in the tropical Indian Ocean. These include the Bjerknes dynamic air-sea feedback, which includes the equatorial zonal wind response to sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly, the thermocline response to equatorial zonal wind forcing, the ocean subsurface temperature response to the thermocline variations, and the thermodynamic air-sea coupling that includes the wind-evaporation-SST and cloud-radiation-SST feedback. Compared to CMIP3, the CMIP5 ensemble produces a more realistic positive wind-evaporation-SST feedback during the IOD developing phase, while the simulation of Bjerknes dynamic feedback is more unrealistic especially with regard to the wind response to SST forcing and the thermocline response to surface wind forcing. The overall CMIP5 performance in the IOD simulation does not show remarkable improvements compared to CMIP3. It is further noted that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and IOD amplitudes are closely related, if a model generates a strong ENSO, it is likely that this model also simulates a strong IOD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]