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Landslides are common across Canada and they pose hazards to human safety, economic activities, and the environment. Robust risk management strategies are necessary for sustainable development. A slope risk management framework has been adopted by the geotechnical community for approximately four decades allowing a systematic, consistent and transparent framework for managing risks. Implementing this framework is associated with uncertainties embedded in our estimates of risk. This paper presents a brief summary of the sources and categories of uncertainty in geotechnical slope engineering and focuses on two topics: (1) estimates of uncertainty in risk calculations and (2) temporal changes in landslide likelihood as a function of weather and steps towards estimating landslide risk changes with climate change. The paper argues that a quantitative risk assessment should not focus on the final risk calculation, but the overall knowledge gained. This allows comprehensive documentation of sources of uncertainty and how they impact geotechnical and risk assessments. Furthermore, the paper outlines approaches to define quantitative correlations between rock fall occurrences and weather, which can be leveraged to estimate changes in rock fall risk with climate change. The paper corresponds to, and expands on, the 2021 Canadian Geotechnical Colloquium. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper describes load and resistance factor design (LRFD) calibration for the resistance factor used in the Stiffness Method internal stability soil failure limit state for geogrid mechanically stabilized earth (MSE) walls. The Stiffness Method was recently adopted in the current American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials LRFD Bridge Design Specifications in the US, and will appear in the next edition of the Canadian Highway Bridge Design Code. The paper describes the details of the calibration of the soil failure limit state which is unique to the Stiffness Method. Calibration outcomes include consideration of the concept of level of understanding in the selection of nominal load and resistance values which is unique to LRFD foundation engineering practice in Canada. A practical conclusion from these calculations is that if product line-specific creep test data are available to estimate the reinforcement secant creep stiffness used for design, then a resistance factor of 1.0 is reasonable for US practice. If only minimum average roll value tensile strength data are available, then a value of 0.95 is recommended for US practice. For Canadian practice, the corresponding values for typical level of understanding are 0.90 and 0.85, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tailings impoundments are often prone to failure due to various causes related to complex loading conditions. For instance, tailings impoundments can fail during or after a seismic event, mainly because of the liquefaction of loose, cohesionless tailings. To improve the seismic stability of impoundments, the density of the tailings can be increased or waste rock inclusions (WRI) can be added in the impoundment. This paper presents the results of numerical analyses of the impoundments loaded with a variety of ground motions with different frequencies, scaled at two different levels of intensity representative of two mining regions of Eastern Canada. The results show that the conventional impoundments are subjected to medium to high displacements at the end of shaking; these show a high probability of rupture during the earthquake or in the post-seismic phase. Tailings densification can decrease the volume of liquefied tailings and displacements during the seismic phase but does not significantly reduce the probability of post-seismic failure. WRI can slightly reduce the volume of liquefied tailings, depending on the intensity of the motions, but the reinforcement reduces significantly the lateral displacements; impoundments with WRI show even better performances during the post-seismic phase. The use of WRI is deemed a good approach to ensure the seismic stability of tailings impoundments and reduce the risk of seismically induced failure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The design of shallow foundations typically proceeds by using the load and resistance factor design (LRFD) methodology to avoid various limit states with some probability. This paper looks at the sliding limit state of shallow foundations, and the sliding resistance factors required for the LRFD approach are estimated using reliability analyses of surface strip foundations. Cohesive and frictional soils are separately studied under wind loading conditions. Monte Carlo simulations are used to estimate the sliding failure probability of foundation designs on cohesive soils, and an analytical method is developed for frictional soils. The results indicate the existence of a "worst case" correlation length for cohesive soils, and the sliding resistance factor required to achieve target maximum lifetime failure probabilities is around 0.4–0.65 for moderate soil variability. For frictional soils, the required sliding resistance factor is about 0.5–0.85 for νϕ′ = 0.15. Overall, the sliding resistance factors recommended here agree well with the resistance factors of ϕgu = 0.6 for cohesive soils and ϕgu = 0.8 for frictional soils stipulated by geotechnical LRFD code provisions in Canada. The analyses can be used to estimate the reliability of current designs and can also aid the calibration of geotechnical design codes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Location-specific climate datasets are required for the design and evaluation of a number of civil engineering projects. It requires huge effort to compile a multi-year quality-controlled climate dataset. In this paper, a method of generating simulated daily climate variables of interest from readily available climate normal using the general-purpose weather generator SIMETAW is presented. The accuracy of this method is assessed by comparing the climate datasets generated using SIMETAW with the recorded historical climate datasets for nine different sites across Canada with climates ranging from semi-arid to pre-humid. This comparison was done using visual presentations as well as statistical analyses of the two datasets. It was found that the multi-year daily climate datasets generated by SIMETAW using just 12 monthly climate normal values are fairly similar to the recorded historical climate datasets. The usefulness of SIMETAW-generated climate datasets was demonstrated by using them in numerical simulations of three different design problems, namely, infiltration into soils, swelling potential of an expansive soil, and soil cover design. From the results of these numerical simulations, it is concluded that the SIMETAW-generated multi-year daily climate datasets are satisfactory for use in the geotechnical and geoenvironmental problems of the kind simulated herein. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wind turbines are typically designed based on fatigue and serviceability limit states, but still require an accurate assessment of bearing capacity. Overconsolidated clay deposits in Canada often have a thin layer of crust with a relatively high undrained shear strength developed from weathering, desiccation, and geochemical processes. However, existing design methods only assess the bearing capacity using effective area and inclination factor without consideration of surficial crusts. This paper studies the undrained VHMT (vertical, horizontal, moment, and torsional) failure envelope of circular foundations founded on a surficial crust underlain by a uniform soil with a zero-tension interface condition using finite element analysis. An analytical expression for the VHMT failure envelope is derived. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]