1. Trends and predicted trends in presentations of older people to Australian emergency departments: effects of demand growth, population aging and climate change.
- Author
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Burkett, Ellen, Martin-Khan, Melinda G., Scott, Justin, Samanta, Mayukh, and Gray, Leonard C.
- Subjects
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MEDICAL care for older people , *ANALYSIS of covariance , *ANALYSIS of variance , *CHI-squared test , *CLIMATE change , *CONFIDENCE intervals , *STATISTICAL correlation , *EMERGENCY medical services , *HOSPITAL emergency services , *MEDICAL needs assessment , *REGRESSION analysis , *STATISTICAL hypothesis testing , *STATISTICS , *DATA analysis , *RETROSPECTIVE studies , *DATA analysis software , *DESCRIPTIVE statistics , *MANN Whitney U Test , *KRUSKAL-Wallis Test , *OLD age - Abstract
Objectives. The aim of the present study was to describe trends in and age and gender distributions of presentations of older people to Australian emergency departments (EDs) from July 2006 to June 2011, and to develop ED utilisation projections to 2050. Methods. A retrospective analysis of data collected in the National Non-admitted Patient Emergency Department Care Database was undertaken to assess trends in ED presentations. Three standard Australian Bureau of Statistics population growth models, with and without adjustment for current trends in ED presentation growth and effects of climate change, were examined with projections of ED presentations across three age groups (0-64, 65-84 and ⩾85 years) to 2050. Results. From 2006-07 to 2010-11, ED presentations increased by 12.63%, whereas the Australian population over this time increased by only 7.26%. Rates of presentation per head of population were greatest among those aged ⩾85 years. Projections of ED presentations to 2050 revealed that overall ED presentations are forecast to increase markedly, with the rate of increase being most marked for older people. Conclusion. Growth in Australian ED presentations from 2006-07 to 2010-11 was greater than that expected from population growth alone. The predicted changes in demand for ED care will only be able to be optimally managed if Australian health policy, ED funding instruments and ED models of care are adjusted to take into account the specific care and resource needs of older people. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2017
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