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Following a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) approach, this paper presents new evidence on the validity of international transmission of economic shocks from key trading partners as sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in sub‐Saharan African (SSA) countries. The GVAR model was estimated for 21 SSA countries grouped into three country classes—oil‐rich, other‐resources‐rich and non‐resource‐based economies, to account for output shocks from crucial trading partner countries—United States, United Kingdom, China and Europe. Furthermore, the generalized forecast error variance decompositions results reveal that output shocks from key trading partners constitute significant contributors to changes in key macroeconomic indicators—real gross domestic product, inflation, exchange rate and short‐term interest rate, in the SSA region. The generalized impulse response functions indicate that these economic shocks have more significant impacts on oil‐rich countries than on other country groups. A key recommendation from this study is that SSA countries, especially the resource‐rich economies, need to strengthen and diversify their economic structure, including the trade basket. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the importance of good institutions in harnessing the growth effects of the bulging economically active population in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA). The paper utilizes a panel dataset comprising 39 countries over the period 2002–13. Based on the system generalized method of moments estimator, this paper finds that an increase in the relative size of the working‐age population has no direct significant impact on growth, except through the presence of strong and high‐quality institutions. The paper also finds that control of corruption, rule of law and political stability are the specific aspects of institutions that matter the most in reaping the dividend. These results do not only highlight the primacy of strong institutions but also shed light on the key institutional pillars that need to be strengthened to rake in the positive effects of an increasing working age population on economic growth in SSA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the nonlinear impact of real GDP per capita on financial development in a panel of 125 countries. It also determines the moderating effect of inflation on the impact of GDP on financial development. It employs the dynamic panel system generalized method of moments (GMM) and the dynamic common correlated effects (CCE) to do both panel and country‐specific analysis, as well as control for cross‐sectional dependence, heterogeneity and endogeneity. This study shows that GDP has a positive impact on financial development in the entire panel. However, when we split the panel into different income groups, we find a positive impact in the high‐ and middle‐income groups while the impact is insignificant in the low income group. Although we find no evidence of a nonlinear impact of GDP on financial development in the panel, the country‐specific analysis reveals a significant nonlinear relationship between GDP and financial development in 73 countries. We also show that inflation adversely moderates the positive impact of GDP on financial development in middle‐income countries. This study implies that the relationship between GDP and financial development depends on the levels of GDP and inflation rate. We recommend some policy options based on the findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Using panel data on 47 African countries from 1980–2013, this paper investigates the effects of aid on Africa's economic growth from the perspective of political stability. We find that international aid can promote economic growth in Africa, but the effectiveness of aid depends on countries’ political stability. Further, the intensity of aid affects its effectiveness. When the aid–GDP ratio is between 0 and 69 per cent, aid can promote economic growth in recipient countries, and when this ratio is 27 per cent, the marginal impact of aid on economic growth is maximized. The findings of this paper suggest that providers of aid should avoid providing a substantial amount of aid to countries at risk of political unrest, and they must determine the optimal scale of aid based on the economic development of recipient countries in order to enable aid to generate better results. Recipient countries should maintain social and political stability and ensure that they do not develop an excessive dependence on aid so that they can achieve the self‐sustainable development of their own economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) into FDI least recipient regions. Panel data for 20 sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and 11 Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries are used for the period 2000-12. Findings of the fixed effects estimations suggest that FDI inflows into these regions are influenced by GDP per capita, infrastructure development, trade openness, and control of corruption. Conversely, inflation negatively affects FDI inflows, and rents from natural resources do not significantly influence FDI. Furthermore, the findings show that marginal benefits from any increase in the quantity of FDI determinants (with the exception of control of corruption) will be less for SSA countries. The paper concludes with important policy implications deduced from the findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper assesses the role of foreign direct investment in economic growth by analyzing the contribution of sectoral external finance in Tanzania. Time series data from 1988 to 2017 and 1999 to 2017 for the general and sector‐specific foreign finance respectively is studied using time series econometrics techniques. More specifically, the autoregressive distributive lag bound test for cointegration and error correction model are employed to evaluate the impact of sector foreign direct investment on growth. The diagnostic tests suggest that our models are free from instability, nonnormality, misspecification, heteroscedasticity, and serial correlation. Estimated long‐ and short‐term coefficients show that the effect of the primary sector foreign direct investment is positive and statistically significant at the 10% and 5% significance levels, respectively. In contrast, that of the secondary and tertiary sectors is insignificant. The coefficient of the general foreign direct investment is found to be statistically insignificant. These results confirm that the type rather than the quantity of foreign direct investment may be more relevant in explaining economic growth. Other control variables exhibit their expected signs except that of openness to trade. Based on these findings, the study recommends more and strategic foreign direct investment incentives to the primary sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Foreign direct investment (FDI) plays an important role in the socio‐economic advancement of developing countries. In the last decade, FDI inflows from China into Côte dʼIvoire have grown rapidly. Using quarterly time series data from 2003Q1 to 2017Q4, this study probes if China FDI has any significant welfare impact on the citizens of Côte dʼIvoire vis‐à‐vis if a causal relationship exists. The policy outcome is to stimulate further discourse that will reduce poverty and enhance the living standard of the population. The study uses vector autoregressive (VAR) and the Toda and Yamamoto (1995) modification of the non‐Granger causality test to determine if a causal relationship exists and the direction of causality. The empirical analysis provides evidence of a unidirectional causality from China FDI to social welfare (proxied by the human development index [HDI]) but no indication of causality between China FDI to economic welfare (proxied by real gross domestic product per capita [GDPPC]). This study, which is borne out of empirical curiosity, fills a lacuna in the FDI literature. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is a novel contribution that examines the FDI‐welfare nexus between China and a developing economy like Côte dʼIvoire. Thus, policies that will further stimulate FDI inflows from China must be carefully crafted to attract funding to the most productive sectors of the economy in order to improve both social and economic welfare. By extension, the policies may be adapted by developing economies with similar characteristics to Côte dʼIvoire. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examined the effects of the financial liberalization strategy adopted on the African continent over 25 years ago in promoting new business entry using data from 22 sub‐Saharan African (SSA) countries in 2006–2017. Results from the dynamic generalized method of moments models show that: financial development via a policy of financial liberalization does not have a uniform effect on entrepreneurship; the interest rate gap significantly undermines the entrance of new firms; the ratio of broad money/gross domestic product (GDP) was positive and statistically significant while real interest rate had mixed findings; interactive effects of interest rate spread and real interest rate with regulatory quality was negative; the interaction of interest rate spread and real interest rate with natural resources confirms its destabilizing effect, although there was evidence suggesting that natural resources do not directly undermine entrepreneurship growth. Other results show real GDP and private credit have a significantly positive effect, and the cost of getting electricity significantly undermines entrepreneurship. The study calls for the need to deepen the financial sector though targeted reforms across SSA countries to reap its growth‐inducing effects on economic outcomes, while promoting institutional quality and efficient use of natural resources to achieve a non‐declining infusion of SMEs on the continent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper builds on Okun's law and Phillips curve theoretical frameworks to analyse the relationship between macroeconomic aggregates and unemployment in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). Fixed and random effects, as well as fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOL) panel data estimation techniques are employed on annual data covering 1991 to 2014. Empirical analyses are performed at both aggregate ECOWAS data level and sub-regional levels, that is, Francophone and Anglophone country levels. Results show that gross domestic product (GDP) growth has a reducing but insignificant effect on unemployment rate, which indicates low employment elasticity of growth in the region. Inflation has an overwhelming positive impact on unemployment, indicating invalidity of the Phillips curve hypothesis. Another important finding of the paper is the positive impact of labour productivity on unemployment rate, reflecting a trade-off between labour productivity and employment. Further, FDI and external debt exert a weak negative impact on unemployment, while population growth has an increasing effect. The paper suggests the need for enabling macroeconomic environment that promotes employment generation in the ECOWAS region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Empirical studies on international trade highlight the role of innovation on international exchange but do not capture the effect of technological innovation when unobservable common factors (UCFs) are considered. This paper examines the long‐run relationship between technological innovation and international exchange using panel data for eight African countries over the period 1981–2013. The non‐stationarity and cointegration between technological innovation, international exchange, public investment, real gross domestic income and foreign direct investment were examined, controlling for cross‐sectional dependence and heterogeneity between countries. The results suggest that technological innovation in Africa remains low after controlling for UCFs, while public investment, real gross domestic product and foreign direct investment have significant impact on international exchange. Moreover, the results from the homogeneous and heterogeneous estimates, with and without UCFs, show that ignoring UCFs is likely to bias the coefficients. These findings reveal that African countries should invest more in public infrastructures and research and development to upgrade their capability To play an active role in the international market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the seminal paper by Rajan and Zingales in 2003, a plethora of studies have been motivated to establish whether the simultaneous opening of trade and capital borders leads to financial sector development. We test whether the simultaneous openness hypothesis is valid for Nigeria, with a focus on the banking sector and stock market. Using annual data from 1990 to 2015 and an instrumental variable regression estimation technique, we show that the simultaneous increase of trade and financial openness limits banking sector and stock market development. Thus, there is no empirical evidence to validate the simultaneous openness hypothesis in Nigeria. It also shows that trade openness is more beneficial for banking sector and stock market development in Nigeria than financial openness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main objective of this paper is to estimate the agricultural sector production efficiency using data envelopment analysis based on a cross‐section of 49 African countries over the 1995–2012 period in order to analyze the determinants of annual efficiency scores to assess the impact of agricultural efficiency on food security. We find that agriculture aid, agricultural sector infrastructure, sanitation, and good governance serve the main drivers of agriculture efficiency and its growth. Our findings also suggest that a large portion of Africa's agricultural sector growth can be attributed to technical progress as opposed to efficiency changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recently the Central African Republic (CAR) has been experiencing huge economic insecurity which mostly derives from the political governance crisis that the country has been continuously undergoing since its independence in 1960. This paper examines the relationship between the political governance crisis and economic security in the country, covering the period 1996–2015, using two‐stage instrumental analysis and second order asymptotic tests. The results show that political stability and absence of violence/terrorism, voice and accountability, proxies of political governance crisis played a different role on national income per capita, agricultural raw materials exports, agriculture value added, external balance on goods and services, food exports, food imports, foreign direct investment, GDP growth, GDP per capita growth, wage and salaried workers, industry value added, total natural resources rent and trade, as proxies of economic security. The importance of sustainable political governance stability and the implementation of appropriate reforms at institutional level are preconditions to economic security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A panel dataset of 28 African countries spanning the period 2004–2014 is used to empirically analyze the effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) and financial development on new business density, a critical measure of entrepreneurship. Panel fixed effects and dynamic panel regressions were estimated while controlling for other important factors that influence entrepreneurship. The paper finds that FDI enhances entrepreneurship in African countries with more developed financial institutions and markets. These countries have greater absorptive capacity needed to benefit from potential FDI spillovers. In addition, the results also show that improving all the different dimensions of financial development (depth, access, and efficiency) is important for stimulating new entrepreneurial activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The conventional wisdom is that growth is a precondition for poverty reduction. Paying particular attention to the level of growth, poverty and institutions in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), this paper investigates the effect of GDP per capita growth and sectoral growth on poverty and explores whether the growth-poverty link can be strengthened by institutions. Using the panel dataset of 41 SSA countries over the period 1981-2010 and dynamic two-step system generalized method of moment (GMM) estimator; it is found that GDP per capita growth is an important instrument for poverty reduction. Also, the growth of agriculture and the service sectors have direct poverty-reducing effects. The paper further reveals that good and accountable government, bureaucratic quality and sound policies and regulations are important ingredients in sustaining the growth-poverty link in SSA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzed the factors that drive foreign direct investments (FDI) by looking at regional heterogeneity among the five African regions. For the first time, FDI drivers are analyzed for each of the five regions of Africa contrary to previous studies which focused on Africa as a whole. The paper used a panel dataset from 1970 to 2010 of 53 African countries divided into: Central, East, North, Southern, and West Africa. Ordinary least squares (OLS) and generalized method of moments (GMM) techniques are used for the estimations. The main results indicate that: (i) agglomeration has a strong positive relationship with FDI inflows in all the regions except Central Africa. However, in West Africa, the second lag of FDI is significantly negative; (ii) there is a negative relationship between FDI inflows and GDP per capita in all the five regions, but a U-shaped relationship is observed in Central, North, and West Africa. But GDP growth rate has a strongly positive relationship with FDI inflows in Central Africa but negatively significant in West Africa; (iii) FDI follows domestic investment in East, Southern, and West Africa; (iv) democracy is a major factor in attracting FDI to Southern Africa, being upward concave; (v) infrastructure development has a positive impact on FDI inflows in East and North Africa; (vi) trade openness has a positive relationship with FDI inflows in all the five regions except in East Africa; (vii) inflation deters FDI inflows to East Africa; (viii) the level of urbanization has a strong positive relationship with FDI inflows only in West Africa; (ix) net foreign aid has a negative relationship with FDI inflows to East, North, and Southern Africa; (x) higher life expectancy deters FDI inflows to Central Africa but promotes the same to East and North Africa; (xi) metal production and exportation attract significant FDI to Central Africa while oil production and exportation attract higher FDI to West Africa; (xii) monetary union attracts greater FDI to Central and West Africa; and (xiii) political instability is a strong hindrance to FDI inflows to West Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the asymmetric non-linear relationship between insurance and economic growth in Nigeria between 1976 and 2010. Prior studies have examined the direction of causality between insurance and economic growth with mixed conclusions in the insurance-growth literature. Moreover, the majority of these studies assumed symmetric causal relationships by concentrating mainly on testing the supply-leading and demand-following hypothesis. This paper, therefore, contributes to the literature by examining the asymmetric causality test between insurance and economic growth in Nigeria. After the cointegration, the asymmetry causality and the asymmetric impulse responses show a robust significant relationship between high gross domestic product (GDP) and low insurance in the long run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Over the past decade, the amount of migrant remittances received by developing countries has increased rapidly. Several studies have analysed the impacts on growth, investment, education, and health. However, the effect on food security has not received much attention. This paper contributes to the literature by exploring the linkage between food security and international remittances using panel data during the period of 1990–2013 in African countries. The study employs an econometric model to test the impact of remittances on food security through four channels: availability, access, utilization and stability. Results show a positive link for access, stability and utilization dimensions but a negative link for availability. Relationship between received remittances and the enhancement of food security seems to be mixed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The paper evaluates the role of institutional factors in forecasting the financial stress of the banking system in WAEMU. For this purpose, we used various logit models on panel data estimated by the conditional and unconditional maximum likelihood. The results show that the quality of institutions including voice and accountability, political stability, government effectiveness, regulatory quality and control of corruption reduce the likelihood of financial stress. However, the deterioration of the current account, the volatility of real GDP and inflation increase this probability. Therefore, to ensure the resilience of the banking system, these findings suggest to promote structured, strong, stable and efficient institutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the interactive effect of financial development and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows on domestic investment in sub-Sahara Africa (SSA). A panel data of 16 SSA countries sampled from 1980 to 2014 are employed. Using the fixed effect, pooled OLS and the FMOLS techniques, our empirical results show that financial development complements FDI inflows to augment domestic investment in SSA. Among other things, the direct effect of FDI inflows, financial sector development, real GDP growth, domestic savings and trade openness are investment promoting while lending rate and inflation inhibit domestic investment in the region. As a policy implication, deepening the financial sector demands considerable attention since it serves as an important channel through which FDI influences domestic investment. While developing the financial sector, it is equally essential that policymakers give enough attention to key macroeconomic stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The benefit of growth experienced since 2000 in Africa has not been broadly shared. Poverty fell by only 8.0 percentage points between 1990 and 2010 compared to the targeted 28.3 percentage points by 2015. Although income inequality fell by 4.3 percent between 1990 and 2009, Africa remains the second most unequal region globally after Latin America and the Caribbean region. Fiscal policies play important roles in reducing poverty and inequality through such instruments as taxes, transfers and government spending. Countries with high fiscal space tend to have lower poverty rates than those with lower tax revenue to GDP ratios. Indeed, fiscal space alone tends to account for 16.5 percent of changes in poverty reduction. Institutions play an important role in increasing fiscal space in Africa. Countries with increasing participatory, transparent and accountable budgetary process tend to have stronger impact of fiscal space on poverty and inequality reduction. Although 29 countries recorded declines in the distributional effectiveness of their fiscal policies over time, the distributional impact rose by 35 percent or more in countries such as Angola, Mozambique, South Africa and Togo. This paper calls for enhancing the non-extractive revenues by diversifying revenues sources from the extractive sectors and improving progressive taxation in countries with high fiscal space and high income inequality. Heavy investment in quality and accessible education and health services, and social programs are also vital to reduce poverty and inequality in Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We estimate the additional investment required to meet the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), with a focus on SDG 1 on ending extreme poverty by 2030 as well as alternative scenarios of reducing poverty. Ending poverty will be an insurmountable task. Africa requires a double-digit growth rate of 16.6 per cent per year between 2015 and 2030 to end extreme poverty by 2030, which corresponds to an investment-to-GDP ratio and a financing gap to GDP ratio of 87.5 and 65.6 per cent per annum, respectively. However, the estimates on the required growth rates vary widely across sub-regions and levels of development of individual countries. Countries and sub-regions with low initial poverty levels and higher responsiveness of poverty to income will be able to end poverty with lower growth rates and lower development finance. The paper outlines the potential policy implications of our findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper seeks to examine the impactful role of institutions in attracting remittances inflow to ECOWAS region for the period 1996-2013. In a bid to achieve this key objective, a system generalized method of moment (GMM) is adopted on a panel dataset in which insightful outcomes emanate. The results reveal an appreciable impact of institutional infrastructures on the migrants' remittances in the region. More specifically, institutional measures of governance appear to act as a spur on remittances, but other institutional decompositions like economic and political governance structures constitute avoidable drags, judging by theoretical priors and statistical levels of significance. These results remain valid to the exclusion of the francophone countries from the original dataset. On the policy front, the overall target is for government to formulate policies that seek to address the symptomatic causes of low inflow of remittances into the region, with special focus on the institutional dimension of the governance framework. Among the auxiliary policy targets include those that would address the problems of dysfunctional institutions, as well as those that would deepen financial systems and engender improved growth of GDP per capita. The study also makes some suggestions for future enquiries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper examines the determinants of unemployment in Nigeria from 1981 to 2013, using the error correction model (ECM), and with ordinary least squares (OLS) method for robustness check. Results from the short-run and long-run regressions show that resource dependence and growth in private credit/GDP by banks significantly worsen labour unemployment, suggesting likely effects of resource-curse, high cost of financial intermediation cum limited credit to the real economy. Real GDP per capita, FDI, trade openness and exchange rate depreciation significantly reduce labour unemployment in Nigeria, whereas increasing industrial capacity usage intensifies it. Government capital expenditure aggravates unemployment in both estimated models, though not significantly, showing rent-seeking and prolonged deficit-financing. Inflation had a mixed outcome and was not significant in both short-run and long-run estimation. Key policy implications of the study include the need to efficiently manage our natural resources; deepen the domestic financial sector; enhance fiscal discipline; promote a favourable macroeconomic environment to attract the right kind of real-sector investment; and raising the economy's competitiveness in labour-intensive processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Natural resource endowment offers great opportunities for achieving high levels of growth and development, notably via fiscal revenue mobilization throughout the entire chain of operations from exploration to production to exports. In the case of African countries, however, resource-rich countries have not yet been able to take full advantage of their resource wealth to mobilize government revenue. In fact it appears that they have often been outperformed by their resource-scarce counterparts in this regard. Is the low revenue performance a result of distorted incentives induced by the natural resource bonanza or the lack of capacity to harness the revenue potential from the natural resource industry? This paper explores these questions and provides some empirical evidence based on data from a sample including African countries as well as countries from Latin America, Asia, and the Middle East for the period 1980–2007. The paper undertakes an econometric analysis to examine the factors that determine revenue performance in African countries from a comparative perspective, with a focus on the role of natural resource endowment. The results are consistent with the evidence from the literature, especially with regard to the role of economic structure (notably the share of agriculture in GDP), the tax base (per capita income), and trade. We compute an index of revenue performance that relates the actual revenue to the level predicted by the econometric model and we find that African resource-rich countries have performed poorly relative to their resource-scarce counterparts and compared to the oil-rich Middle Eastern countries. The paper concludes with some policy implications for African countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Uganda, in an attempt to accelerate growth and development, has been encouraging foreign direct investment (FDI) through privatization programmes and generous incentive packages such as tax holidays and exemptions. However, the Ugandan experience shows that to attract FDI, macroeconomic and political stability and policy consistency are much more important than such incentive schemes. The paper discusses infrastructure and institutional bottlenecks that act as deterrents to FDI. The paper uses time series data to investigate the FDI-growth linkage. The empirical results indicate that FDI has a positive impact on GDP growth in Uganda. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In addition to analyzing the characteristics of gender equality in secondary education enrollment in Africa, this paper empirically studies the key drivers of gender equality in secondary education enrollment, using cross-sectional time series data from 1970 to 2010. Our results show that the coefficient associated with the level of real GDP per capita is positive and statistically significant in both the overall Africa sample and in the sub-Saharan and North African samples. But the quadratic term of real GDP per capita is negative in sign and significant in the overall Africa and sub-Saharan African estimates. These provide evidence of a hump-shaped relationship between real GDP per capita and gender equality in secondary education enrollment in Africa. Our results also suggest that higher share of female teachers in secondary schools, increased democracy (at a decreasing rate), higher female share of the labor force, Christian dominance in a country, higher domestic investment rate, and being an oil-exporting country increase gender equality in secondary education enrollment in the continent. However, higher population growth tends to lower it. The policy implications and lessons of these results are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the Tiebout hypothesis in Angola's provinces from 2004 to 2013, using a spatial panel data model. The Tiebout hypothesis, which states that a country's internal migration is dictated by regional public policy, is tested. Angola's internal inter-provincial migration is related to gross domestic product per capita, local public expenditure, unemployment, poverty, population density, the number of public employees in the region, and a NGO for civic education. The results reveal that spatial autocorrelation is a reality in the Angolan context, validating the adoption of a spatial model, and that regional migration is explained by the covariates. The general conclusion is that the Tiebout hypothesis is accepted in the Angolan regions, and that the most important cause of migration is regional poverty. Policy implications are derived and it is concluded that an efficient anti-poverty policy is needed in the Angolan context at regional level in order to decrease internal migration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzed drivers of foreign direct investments (FDI) to West Africa using a panel dataset from 1970 to 2010. OLS and GMM techniques are used for the estimations. The main results indicate that there is a U-shaped relationship between economic development and FDI inflows to West Africa. In summary: (i) The quadratic element of real per capita GDP, domestic investment, trade openness, first year lag of FDI, natural resources (oil and metals) endowment and exports, and monetary integration have positive and significant effect on FDI inflows to West Africa; and (ii) there is a negative relationship between FDI inflows to the sub-region and loan component of ODA, economic growth, level of economic development (real GDP per capita), life expectancy, and domestic credit to the private sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, this paper uses panel cointegration techniques to investigate the short- and long-run relationship between CO2 emissions, gross domestic product (GDP), renewable energy consumption and international trade for a panel of 24 sub-Saharan Africa countries over the period 1980-2010. Short-run Granger causality results reveal that there is a bidirectional causality between emissions and economic growth; bidirectional causality between emissions and real exports; unidirectional causality from real imports to emissions; and unidirectional causality runs from trade (exports or imports) to renewable energy consumption. There is an indirect short-run causality running from emissions to renewable energy and an indirect short-run causality from GDP to renewable energy. In the long-run, the error correction term is statistically significant for emissions, renewable energy consumption and trade. The long-run estimates suggest that the inverted U-shaped EKC hypothesis is not supported for these countries; exports have a positive impact on CO2 emissions, whereas imports have a negative impact on CO2 emissions. As a policy recommendation, sub-Saharan Africa countries should expand their trade exchanges particularly with developed countries and try to maximize their benefit from technology transfer occurring when importing capital goods as this may increase their renewable energy consumption and reduce CO2 emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper re-examines the long-run finance-growth nexus in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) using data from 17 countries over the period 1975-2005. We apply error correction-based panel cointegration tests that take into account cross-sectional dependence among countries. Our results - unlike a previous study using the same data - indicate the existence of a long-run relationship between financial and economic development in SSA countries. Moreover, our results clearly show that the long-run causality runs from financial to economic development, although a muted support for the reverse causal impact is observed when financial development is measured by the percentage of liquid liabilities in GDP. The estimated long-run parameters measuring the finance-growth link are positive and statistically significant. Therefore, our results strongly support policies aimed at developing the financial sector in SSA in order to promote long-run economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Exercising fiscal prudence in periods of deteriorating fiscal balance requires sound policies which promote debt sustainability. This paper estimates a dynamic cross-country model and investigates the impact of domestic debt on economic growth and private sector credit in a panel of 21 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries over the period 1985 to 2010. System-GMM results reveal a non-linear relationship between domestic debt and economic growth, characterized by a maximum turning point of 11.4 per cent of GDP. In addition, domestic debt is found to crowd out private sector credit by an elasticity of negative 0.3 per cent of GDP, deterring capital accumulation and private sector growth. These findings underscore the need for effective debt management strategies which incorporate debt ceiling to limit domestic indebtedness, as well as the design of financial policies which enhance credit availability, promote fiscal discipline and deepen domestic debt markets on the continent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the characteristics of the recent African economic growth. The data reveal that during the period 1995-2005, Africa caught up with East Asia in terms of economic growth and investment. However, East Asia has improved its advantage on Africa in terms of GDP per capita and growth fundamentals. African economic growth rate was 2.2 percentage points higher during the period 1995-2005 compared to the period 1975-94. However, between the two periods, only primary education, exports and urbanization have significantly increased in Africa. The other growth determinants have either slightly deteriorated or remained stagnant. The results of growth regressions over the period 1995-2005 indicate that investment, private sector access to credit, government effectiveness, exports and the share of agriculture value added in GDP are significantly linked with economic growth. Thus, compared to the statistical analysis, growth regressions suggest that most of the variables which have significantly contributed to growth recovery are not those variables which have positively evolved in Africa. The good news is that African economies have grown recently without changing many growth fundamentals. The bad news is that the recent African growth recovery may not be sustainable if efforts are not focused on right growth fundamentals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the effects of market-based financial sector reforms on the competitiveness and efficiency of commercial banks, and economic growth, in Zambia. The results show that reforms adopted in Phase II (strengthening of regulatory and supervisory, payments and settlements, and financial operations frameworks) and Phase III (implementation of a comprehensive financial sector development plan) had significant positive effects on bank cost efficiency. Macroeconomic variables such as per capita GDP and inflation were insignificant. Further, using an endogenous growth model in which industrial production is a proxy for GDP growth, it was found that bank cost efficiency, financial depth, Phase II and III financial sector reforms, the degree of economic openness, and rate of inflation were significant determinants of economic growth. Phase II policies and the inflation rate have negative effects while the rest of the variables have positive effects on economic growth. Some plausible policy lessons are offered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

International remittances flowing into developing countries are attracting increasing attention because of their rising volume and their impact on recipient countries. This paper uses a panel data set on poverty and international remittances for African countries to examine the impact of international remittances on poverty reduction in 33 African countries over the period 1990–2005. We find that international remittances—defined as the share of remittances in country GDP—reduce the level, depth, and severity of poverty in Africa. But the size of the poverty reduction depends on how poverty is being measured. After instrumenting for the possible endogeneity of international remittances, we find that a 10 percent increase in official international remittances as a share of GDP leads to a 2.9 percent decline in the poverty headcount or the share of people living in poverty. Also, the more sensitive poverty measures—the poverty gap (poverty depth) and squared poverty gap (poverty severity)—suggest that international remittances will have a similar impact on poverty reduction. The point estimates for the poverty gap and squared poverty gap suggest that a 10 percent increase in the share of international remittances will lead to a 2.9 percent and 2.8 percent decline, respectively, in the depth and severity of poverty in African countries. Regardless of the measure of poverty used as the dependent variable, income inequality (Gini index) has a positive and significant coefficient, indicating that greater inequality is associated with higher poverty in African countries, much in conformity with the literature. Similar results were obtained for trade openness. In the same vein, per capita income has a negative and significant effect on each measure of poverty used in the study. Our results also show that inflation rates positively and significantly affect poverty incidence, depth and severity in Africa. In all three poverty measures, the dummy variable for sub-Saharan Africa is strongly positive, and strongly negative for North Africa. The policy implications of these results are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several strategies are open to an economy in its attempt to attain sustainable economic development, depending on its historical background and resource endowment. One such strategy is the resource-led strategy. Nigeria is very rich in crude oil and has reaped billions of petrodollars. However, the country faces the problem of successfully translating this huge oil wealth into sustainable development. This paper employs the vector error correction technique in examining the long-run impact of the huge oil wealth accruing to Nigeria on its economic development. Basic indicators such as growth, private consumption, infrastructure (electricity), agriculture and manufacturing output growth rates are examined. The empirical results suggest a significant positive long-run impact of per capita oil revenue on per capita household consumption and electricity generation while a negative relationship is established for GDP, agriculture and manufacturing. Even for those with a negative relationship at current period, there exist positive relationships at subsequent lags. Thus, oil revenue, if properly managed and invested, could be effectively used to induce oil-led development for Nigeria provided that the initial inhibitions of corruption, lack of transparency, accountability and fairness in its use and distribution are removed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How do we stimulate investment and growth in Africa? This paper focuses on low-income countries that are ‘good performers’ and not especially endowed with natural resources. Many of these countries have undertaken a set of economic reforms, and have recorded growth rates in per capita GDP of around 5 percent over the past 10 years. But some constraints to growth persist. We look at three things — how business environments create ‘external costs’ for firms and inhibit performance, how investors perceive the constraints to doing business, and the role of political economy factors especially in those countries with lagging indigenous business sectors. Our analysis of investment climate and other data leads us to several recommendations for governments, donors and the private sector itself, including the following: deepen macro reforms; build a strong, unified business forum; create incentives for more responsive governments; and improve risk mitigation and broaden this to domestic investors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper investigates the relationship between the development of the Ivorian stock market and the country's economic performance. Stock market development indicators were identified and used to calculate the Ivorian stock market development index. A set of control variables were also identified. The empirical results suggest that gross domestic product and stock market development are cointegrated when the control variables are included in the analysis. That is, there is a long-run relationship between these variables taken together. Moreover, there is a unidirectional causality running from stock market development to economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper attempts to examine key aspects of the Sudanese tax system, paying particular attention to the impact of the recent trade liberalization on government revenues. An eclectic method of analysis is utilized. The results show that the Sudanese tax system as a whole is not buoyant or elastic; the same applies for its major handles. The liberalization reform did not appear to have enhanced revenue productivity and stability in the country. This result indicates the presence of substantial slacks in tax collection and tax evasion. The analysis also shows that tax evasion is the main problem facing tax administration; on average, it stands at about 53 per cent of actual tax yield and 33 per cent of the potential tax yield inclusive of the underground economy's gross domestic product (GDP). Assessment of the determinants of trade revenue suggests that the yield of trade tax has improved due to liberalization; however, the marginal benefit of tax evasion is still considerable. The findings imply that a committed tax reform is crucial for augmenting tax revenue yield as well as for fiscal consolidation and macroeconomic stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Foreign direct investment is believed to have a positive impact on the economies of the developing countries but its determinants are not yet fully established. This paper empirically investigates the relationship between official development assistances and foreign direct investment flows using panel data from 11 sub-Saharan African countries for the period 1990–2003. The results show that bilateral official development assistance has a significant and positive influence on foreign direct investment flows. The results also show that trade openness, growth rate in the labor force, and exchange rates have a positive and significant effect on foreign direct investment flows. But multilateral development assistance, the growth rate in GDP per capita, the country's composite risk level, and the index for political freedom and civil liberties do not have a statistically significant effect on foreign direct investment flows. The policy implication of the positive and significant influence of the bilateral official development assistance on foreign direct investment is that the recipient countries need to formulate policies that improve their economic relationships with the donor countries in order to attract greater foreign direct investment flows from the multilateral corporations located in these countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the strong factors reflecting Africa's economic backwardness is the low level of industrial development. Not only does the industrialization process appear to have bypassed the continent, there is evidence of de-industrialization in the case of several countries. This paper seeks to address a set of interrelated questions: To what extent is the growth performance of African economies related to these structural characteristics? More precisely, is there any discernible evidence that GDP growth and overall labour productivity growth of African countries is positively related to how fast their industrial sector is growing? We test out Kaldor's three growth laws: first, that the growth of GDP is positively related to the growth of manufacturing output not simply in a definitional sense (because manufacturing output is a part of GDP) but in a fundamental causal sense related to the production characteristics of manufacturing activity; secondly, that the growth of labour productivity in manufacturing is positively related to manufacturing output growth because of static and dynamic increasing returns to scale (Verdoorn's Law); and thirdly, that there will be a negative relation between labour productivity growth in the economy as a whole and the rate of growth of employment in the non-manufacturing sector because most activity outside the manufacturing sector is subject to diminishing returns, particularly in land-based activities such as agriculture and many service activities. The authors' conclusions are that there is some empirical support for Kaldor's growth laws in respect of the countries of Africa. The growth of GDP seems much more closely associated with the growth of the manufacturing/industrial sector than the agricultural or service sectors. Structural change in favour of industrial activities would almost certainly help to accelerate the growth of GDP and living standards in Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]