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Comments of the research of Luc Anselin regarding the spatial statistics in geography and regional science. Status of spatial models; Limitations of the research in the field of spatial modeling; Questions of finding parsimonious representations of spatial variations.

The paper analyzes the relationship between different types of proximities—network and spatial—in relation to innovation in the context of the R&D service industry. In doing so, it contributes to the recent debate in the literature on the effects of network connectivity versus geographical colocation. The paper uses original data from a survey of 145 R&D service establishments in Montreal (Canada) and their interactions with both local and nonlocal organizations. The findings of the paper indicate that collaborative networks (both local and nonlocal) have a stronger association with R&D service innovation than spatial proximity to R&D service organizations and other collaborators. However, when these two dimensions are interacted, they are shown to function as substitutes. The paper also demonstrates that the relationship between spatial proximity and networking varies across three dimensions: local versus nonlocal networking, the type of relationship (client, supplier, competitor, and research institutes and university), and the type of network connectivity—brokerage versus closure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Chinese government has been using water efficiency targets to manage commercial, institutional, and industrial water use across the country. This paper argues that water efficiency targets may influence provincial administrators’ preferences in tightening water regulation in cities with higher water use while disproportionately overregulating water use in productive cities to satisfy their efficiency goals. I develop a city‐level production model with water regulation preferences and show that the unintended distortion of water regulation in response to water efficiency targets leads to efficiency loss of resource allocation and further reshapes regional output across cities, especially for productive cities. Using a sample of city‐level water data from 2006 to 2016 in China, this paper empirically investigates the impact of the Three Red Lines (TRL) policy on provincial administrators’ preferences in water use regulation. The results indicate that the elasticity of water regulation in response to the policy is approximately −0.64 to −0.8 and has resulted in tighter water regulations for cities with higher economic outputs. Quantitatively, eliminating water distortions would reshape water use across cities and increase the aggregate output of an entire province by up to 0.069%. The results imply that possible consequences of the political consideration of provincial administrators in satisfying water efficiency targets include inefficiency and inequality in water allocation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the role of municipal and provincial public social spending for local income inequality after taxes and transfers in Austria. We utilize a spatial multi‐level model, which allows us to analyze the contribution of three spatial scales (municipal, district, and provincial level) to municipal income inequality. Our analysis shows that the effect of public social spending on local Gini indices does not only differ across provinces but also across municipalities which indicates that the potential cushioning effect of social expenditure is highly localized. Further splitting total public social expenditure into three distinct categories (education, health, social protection) reveals that spending on social protection has the highest effect on local inequality across all provinces, while health spending does not exert a discernible influence in any province. The method and results presented in this paper are of international interest for policymakers and researchers who aim to investigate whether the same patterns hold true in other countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reports on the employment migration behavior of non‐White ethnic minority graduates in the United Kingdom for the 2018/2019 graduation cohort, which is the last cohort to enter the labor market before the COVID‐19 pandemic. Using data from the new Graduate Outcomes survey and controlling for a rich set of background characteristics, the findings indicate that ethnic minority graduates are more likely than their White counterparts to find work in ethnically diverse areas of the United Kingdom after leaving higher education. An identity utility framework is then formalized that combines identity economics with traditional approaches of human capital theory and job search theory. A test of an ethnic identity‐based hypothesis reveals that Asian, Black, and Mixed‐background graduates are comparatively more likely to migrate to areas with higher ethnic diversity levels, rather than less diverse areas. In addition to traditional explanations based on human capital theory and job search theory, this paper argues that these patterns are best explained by ethnic identity norms, which introduce a preference for working in ethnically diverse places. However, the results should be interpreted with some caution because of concerns related to heterogeneity within the ethnic group classifications used in the paper and possible omitted and unobserved variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the impact of the arrival of Airbnb on local consumption amenities in Madrid. We exploit the exogenous variation created by the timing and uneven distribution of Airbnb listings in the city to determine the impact on food and beverage establishments. Using an instrumental variable strategy, we find positive local effects on both the number of restaurants and their employees: an increase of 14 Airbnb rooms in a given census tract leads to almost one more restaurant, and the same increase in a given neighborhood generates 11 new tourist‐related employees. The results are robust to the specification and sample composition. This paper contributes to the literature on the economic impact of the platform economy on urban areas by providing evidence of market expansion externalities from short‐term rentals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Remote rural and postindustrial regions are much more vulnerable to population drain in comparison with industrialized centers and capitals, due to obvious reasons such as meager job opportunities, difficulties in accessing public services in education, healthcare and transport, housing, entertainment, lack of integration with other territories and, finally, less advanced levels of digitalization. This represents an open challenge for the European Union within the framework of its Cohesion Policy. This paper analyzes the impact of digital trends, represented by the percentage of the population with access to internet and broadband and the percentage of individuals who buy goods and internet services (percentages provided by Eurostat) in less populated EU NUTS2 regions with lower income, on the crude population growth rate composed of natural changes in population and migratory flows and on the unemployment rate by applying panel data analysis. It has been possible to confirm that digitalization has a positive impact on natural changes in population in EU regions with lower economic development. On the contrary, the unemployment rate does not affect natural changes in population, but it does have a negative impact on migratory flows. The findings show that digitalization may contribute to reversing negative demographic trends in more disadvantaged EU regions in terms of income and population density. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper investigates the influence of regional import shocks from low‐wage countries on electoral support for European social democratic parties in 289 NUTS2 regions (2002–2022). The estimates suggest that a one standard deviation increase in the import shock from low‐wage countries over an election period may lead to a decline in support for social democratic parties between 0.6 and 1.2 percentage points. Similar results also apply to imports from Asian economies, such as China and India. The negative impact on electoral support for social democratic parties is amplified in moderately industrial and predominantly rural regions. For the former, the decline in industrial employment led to a shift of social democratic voters to the radical right. In contrast, in the latter case, the relatively slower growth of employment in the tertiary and quaternary sectors and the peripheral position of these regions caused a shift to the radical left. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to analyze the trends in income inequality in large cities within a selected sample of OECD countries. Specifically, we consider a set of individual characteristics that account for changes in the income distribution and estimate their contribution to differences in inequality in large cities over the last two decades. We use a combination of reweighting techniques and recentered influence functions (RIF) to detect an upward trend in inequality within large cities. This result is mainly driven by changes in the returns to endowments rather than by changes in its distribution. Our findings suggest that these results are not of the same magnitude across the countries analyzed. A key finding is that the contribution to inequality of the skill premium is considerably higher in North American countries than in European countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the influence of specialization, urbanization, and diversification externalities on the dynamics of tourism employment in Brazilian microregions. We use a dynamic panel data model for the 2006–2019 period. The location quotient, population density and the inverse of the Hirschman–Herfindahl index, proxies for specialization, urbanization, and diversification, respectively, positively affect tourism employment in the long run. Based on the estimated long‐run elasticities, the specialization externality produces the strongest influence on tourism employment after a permanent increase of one standard deviation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we study the impact of the New Market Tax Credit (NMTC) program in the United States on overall jobs and jobs held by minority and rural populations within the 2010–2019 period using a dynamic event‐study analysis. We also investigate if the jobs that can be attributed to the program stayed in program recipient neighborhoods or whether those jobs were occupied by non‐residents. The results show that there is clear evidence that the program increased overall workplace jobs and workplace jobs held by White and minority populations in the program recipient tracts. We also see that a larger share of workplace jobs due to the program went to minorities compared to the job shares held by various racial and ethnic groups at the beginning of the investment period. The results further show that even though the NMTC program increased the number of jobs available in a program recipient tract, the individuals who live outside that tract are holding many of the jobs created. The results also suggest that the program had a negative impact on jobs held by residents in nonmetropolitan tracts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The economic effect of climate hazard events varies by time and by location. This paper investigates how climate shocks to local property markets transmit to capital markets and provides evidence of the extent to which forward‐looking climate risk is capitalized into the public valuations of those property markets. We first quantify the exposure of real estate portfolios to locations that recently experienced climate events (Event Exposure). Using an event study framework, we find that, in the post‐event period, a one‐standard‐deviation increase in ex‐ante Event Exposure is associated with a 0.2–1.4 percentage points decrease in quarterly stock returns. Cross‐sectional analyses reveal that differences in return effects can be explained by variation in the extent to which the area focuses on climate change. Similarly, we find that forward‐looking climate risk assessment negatively affects firm valuations only in markets with a focus on climate change. Consistent with these findings, we provide evidence that climate events (shocks) induce retail investors (noise traders) to decrease their stock holdings and that blockholders tend to take the opposite side in these transactions. We also show that conditioning on consumer sentiment helps to explain cross‐sectional variation in the response of stock returns to climate events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of high‐dimensional fixed‐effects estimation has become customary with the estimation of gravity models of bilateral trade, migration, or commuting as outcome. However, fixed‐effects methods can be used without incidental‐parameter bias in a very small set of stochastic models. Alternatives to fixed‐effects estimation are iterative‐structural model estimation or linearizations of the structural model. Baier and Bergstrand deployed such a linearization. While easy to implement, the approach has drawbacks related to the approximation point and lack of observability of ingredients needed for the linearization. This compromises empirical work. The present paper provides a remedy to this problem by linearizing at the observed trade equilibrium. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates how institutional conditions at national and regional levels shape the decisions of Multinational Enterprises (MNEs) to invest abroad by means of either acquisitions or greenfield investments. The empirical analysis covers all foreign direct investment (FDI) projects in the European Union by the largest MNEs in the world to study alternative choices by the same firm and account for firm‐level characteristics in investment decisions. The empirical results show that—other things being equal—regions with stronger investment eco‐systems are more likely to attract acquisitions, while greenfield investments are more likely in regions with comparatively weaker systemic conditions. Howerver, the regional quality of institutions makes a fundamental difference to the nature of the investment projects attracted by regions: those with high quality of government can attract greenfield investments undertaken by the most productive MNEs. By improving their quality of government, local, and regional policy makers can attract higher quality greenfield investment projects to their constituencies, potentially breaking the vicious circle between low productivity areas and low productivity FDI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper compares the size distributions of cities when they are measured using gridded population and nighttime lights (NTLs) data. To do so, we exploit recent and accurate satellite imagery to proxy urban economic activity. Similarly to related studies, our results suggest that population is more equally distributed than lights at the country level. However, and calling assumptions established for urban NTLs into question, our findings do not support a Pareto function for their distribution. We also obtain evidence of a nonlinear and heterogeneous link between population and lights for a global sample of cities. Grounded on our empirical analysis, we develop a simple theoretical framework that relates the difference between the distributions of population and light emissions to the strength of agglomeration economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to provide a comprehensive examination of the evolution of regional science, a scholarly domain in the social sciences that applies analytical and quantitative approaches and methods to understand and address urban, rural, or regional problems. We conducted a bibliometric analysis of 8509 articles published in six regional science flagship journals (including the Journal of Regional Science, Annals of Regional Science, Regional Science and Urban Economics, Papers in Regional Science, Regional Science Policy and Practice, and International Regional Science Review) from 1958 to 2021. The analysis presents an objective data‐driven and unprecedented visualization of the field's intellectual, social, and conceptual structure and trends from the beginning to the present. It also provides a rich portrayal of the epistemology of regional science and illuminates matters related to regional science education and training. We find that regional science has moved well beyond its origins, shifting away from a heavy focus on theory and abstraction to modeling/simulation, empirical analysis, and policy research. We also find that there has been increasing attention to "people" in regions and the spatial characteristics of social problems, and some important shifts in the regional science community itself, particularly in terms of patterns of collaboration and the geography of scholarship. The findings of this paper provide implications for future directions of research and education for regional science. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the spatial patterns of young (<10 years) digital firms in Germany between 2008 and 2017 on county level. Determinants of firm birth locations as well as relocations are considered jointly to understand differences in location choices within firms' life cycles. I match commercial register data of 107,321 firms with county‐level administrative data to capture local characteristics. Using an OLS model with fixed effects, I find that the local knowledge base—that is, universities, research institutes, and colocated incumbents—are significant key determinants of digital firm birth when controlling for a host of local characteristics. My results indicate that for five firms per 1000 inhabitants, there is around one firm birth. Second, using a fixed effects gravity model for the analysis of relocations, I find that the most dominant explanatory factor for firm relocation across specifications is distance, that is, relocation costs. Relocation flows are more than twice as high to neighboring counties relative to other locations which shows that digital firms are not as footloose as their business model may suggest. Jointly, my results reflect economic activity's regional persistence, particularly for new firms. My paper provides evidence for policies targeting homogenous digital clusters based on strong colocation and that digital economic activity is not shifted over long distances, but the regional entrepreneurship capital is crucial for local growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Oates, (1972) argues that local governments cannot use conventional policies to stabilize economies, due to fiscal spillovers and beggar‐thy‐neighbor policies. Hayek's theory implies it is efficient for a central government to devolve decision‐making authority to local governments that have informational advantages. This paper tests the different theoretical implications by examining a natural experiment caused by the income‐tax‐sharing reform in China. Our analysis reveals that local government size does have a stabilization effect, but vertical fiscal imbalance (VFI) substantially weakens this stabilizing effect; lack of local information is the key factor leading to this influence of VFI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we study the role of within‐city roads layout in fostering city growth. Within‐city roads networks have not been studied extensively in economics although they are essential to facilitate human interactions, which are at the core of agglomeration economies. We build and compute several simple measures of roads network and construct a sample of over 1800 cities and towns from Sub‐Saharan Africa. Using a simple econometric model and two instrumental variable strategies based on the history of African cities, we then estimate the causal impact of within‐city roads layout on urban growth. We find that over the recent decades, cities with greater road density and road evenness in the centre grew faster. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper focuses on the relationship between “urbanization economies” and access to bank credit by assessing the role of product variety and economic complexity in affecting local credit market conditions. Using quarterly data on Italian provinces for 2008–2018 and adopting a dynamic (spatial) econometric approach, the work provides robust evidence highlighting how local economic complexity reduces the barriers to accessing local credit markets. With a greater “qualified” diversification (higher economic complexity), banks access successful projects with greater probability and are more willing to grant credit. The estimation results also reveal the existence of long‐run spatial spillover effects. The empirical findings advocate for a nuanced and context‐specific policy framework. By embracing place‐based and mission‐oriented policies encouraging diversification and knowledge diffusion, regions can enhance their economic resilience and provide tailored support to businesses, ensuring their stability and growth even in the face of challenging credit conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long‐distance commuting (LDC) is an increasingly relevant strategy of labor mobility worldwide and is therefore key to understanding the structure and dynamics of labor markets. However, little is known about the effect that LDC has on the labor market equilibrium of host territories. This paper addresses this gap for the case of Chile. While LDC is a useful strategy for improving salary and employment on a national scale, our results show a negative effect for residents in host territories (on a local scale), particularly when LDC results in commuters with similar characteristics to residents competing for the same jobs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides estimates of local employment multipliers from large, publicly subsidized firms. We use a synthetic control weighted difference‐in‐difference estimation procedure that matches treated areas with comparison areas to generate local employment multiplier estimates. We show that local employment multiplier estimates have a high degree of uncertainty, with a wide range of point estimates (both positive and negative) and varying degrees of statistical significance. There is a concentration of positive employment multipliers from manufacturing facilities, but little correlation between estimated multipliers and subsidy value. We demonstrate that our approach produces drastically different results than a traditional difference‐in‐difference approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper measures how much more households pay for less density in their immediate surroundings. Using transaction and administrative data and exploiting the introduction of a regulation that restricted the number of housing units for certain land lots, we find that households discount density: a 10% increase in within‐development density decreases the price per square meter by 5%. Further, the mean price per square meter of the average development increased by 1%–3% after the regulation was introduced, while the amount of built‐up space remained constant. The increase in total revenue suggests developers may underestimate the externality caused by density. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Homogeneous national policies can generate heterogeneous effects on the territory. This paper aims to verify the impact of the entry of single Italian municipalities into an inter‐municipal association on the unitary costs of the social services supplied to the local communities. Panel cost stochastic frontier model in the presence of endogeneity has been introduced based on two pillars: a counterfactual setting to verify the aggregation effects concerning a set of similar municipalities and the use of a cost efficiency estimation methodology which considers the endogeneity of output with respect to cost. The results of our analysis show that the effects of adopting associated forms of service delivery can be very multifaceted and diversified according to the typology and the degree of implementation of the Municipal Union itself. The analysis sheds light on the effects of municipalities' organisational choices, addressing the consolidation of small municipalities not in binary terms but also—and above all—suggesting that it is the type of union that impacts the possibility of convergence towards greater cost efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the determinants of early school leaving (ESL) in a panel of 371 regions of OECD countries observed between 1998 and 2019. The empirical analysis includes both local factors previously emphasized by micro‐economic studies and national‐level factors such as education policies. We find that labor market opportunities for young people, as captured by the youth unemployment rate or the size of low‐skill sectors, can pull students out of school. Conversely, late access to a large number of vocational education tracks, high preprimary enrollment and continuous training for teachers are strongly and negatively correlated with ESL rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Natural disasters such as hurricanes, floods, heatwaves, and wildfires are projected to become more prevalent in the foreseeable future. Climate risk is, therefore, increasingly recognized as an important factor by policy makers, the investment community, and financial markets. Due to the immobility of assets, the commercial real estate industry is especially vulnerable to climate risk, and there is an increasing interest to understand the impact of climate risk on the value of commercial real estate. For commercial real estate lenders, changes in collateral value are only of partial importance. The ability of borrowers to meet their payment obligations is equally, if not more important. By combining historical data on two major climate‐related disasters—Hurricanes Harvey and Sandy—with longitudinal information on commercial mortgage performance, this paper identifies the impact of climate risks on mortgage delinquency rates for commercial real estate mortgages. The results show that both Harvey and Sandy led to elevated levels of commercial mortgage delinquency, with significant heterogeneity based on the extent of damage in the Census block group. Information provided through FEMA 100‐year floodplain maps partially mitigates the effects, an indication that lenders incorporate flood risk information in the underwriting process. An analysis of potential mechanisms indicates a decrease in property income during the 2‐year period following the event for Hurricane Harvey, but no evidence of income effects for Sandy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of the incumbent state‐owned enterprises (SOEs) on the births of new private‐owned enterprises (POEs) in China is a central concern for the government and society. In this paper, we apply agglomeration theories to distinguish the linkages between SOEs and POEs. Using China's 2008 economic census, the 2007 Input‐Output Table, and the 2005 population census, we measure the formation of new POEs at the city‐industry level, and the agglomeration forces of distance proximity to inputs, outputs, labor, and technology. More explicitly, we measure the extent to which local SOEs provide relevant inputs, consume outputs, employ similar workers, and use similar technology. Our findings indicate that overall, incumbent SOEs hinder the formation of new POEs. For manufacturing, the entry of new POEs is significantly lower in places where more upstream SOEs are concentrated. For services, the entry of new POEs is significantly lower in places where more upstream and downstream SOEs are concentrated. However, the agglomeration effects from the incumbent POEs are either insignificant or significantly positive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates how the overall impact of the European Cohesion Policy depends on the composition of the regional investment in Hard (infrastructure) and Soft (business and technical support) projects. The study employs a generalized propensity score (GPS) analysis in a multidimensional treatment context. In particular, the two dimensions considered are given by the Hard and Soft investments. The GPS estimation is based on a set of relevant idiosyncratic features of the regions. The second step estimates a dose–response function in a two‐dimensional setting. The results confirm the existence of nonlinearities in the effect of different amounts of funds, but more importantly, show a degree of complementarity between Hard and Soft investment and that for policymakers, it is crucial to exploit such features to achieve more significant impact. The EU's more developed regions could have achieved a doubled GDP p.c. growth rate by pursuing a policy mix where Hard investments are reduced in favor of Soft investments. This improvement is comparable to the one obtained by at least doubling the available resources. The findings add to the evidence collected on the impact of the Cohesion Policy, suggesting a shift of the debate from the quantity to the quality of the expenditure pursued under the umbrella of territorial policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to spatially and regionally examine academic engagement within Brazil, identifying patterns. Moreover, our investigation can contribute to a better understanding of how knowledge can be turned into a tool to fight regional inequality. We depart from two hypotheses: first, universities situated in peripheral regions interact more with companies from relatively more dynamic regions, and second, in the absence of industrial knowledge demand, universities tend to collaborate more closely with a diverse range of stakeholders in the region. To evaluate these hypotheses and find empirical evidence, we consider 4497 research groups and 4603 nonacademic organizations as "nodes" connected by 8830 collaborations throughout all Brazilian regions. Social network tools are used to illustrate the spatial and regional dimensions of academic engagement more accurately. The results show that academic engagement is not regionally homogeneous, demonstrating essential differences regarding local nonacademic partnerships. Innovation policies, which encourage only university–firm interactions, perpetuate regional inequality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the impact of the main criterion employed by the European Commission for the allocation of the largest portion of Structural Funds, based on the threshold of the 75% of European Union (EU) average gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. We focus on the 2014–2020 programming period and on EU‐15 regions to analyze if this criterion has penalized some of them, as a consequence of the 2004 EU enlargement, which has represented an exogenous shock in the allocation process, due to the economic backwardness of new member states. Through the application of Synthetic Control Methods and Difference‐in‐Differences estimators at different geographical scales, we show that regions that did not obtain the less developed status in both the programming period 2007–2013 and 2014–2020, but that would have obtained it in the period 2014–2020 without the 2004 EU enlargement, experienced a significantly lower GDP per capita growth between −10.5% and −5.7%. Conversely, territories that in the period 2014–2020 lost the less developed status, previously obtained in the time frame 2007–2013, were not characterized by a significantly lower economic growth, providing some evidence of the effectiveness of the safety net. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a growing amount of literature in economic geography showing that historical episodes can leave long‐lasting cultural and institutional legacies across space. For credibly identifying such persistent effects the analyses should not pick up trends preceding the respective episodes. Against this background, the paper re‐examines the famous case of the German division and reunification. The empirical focus is on the persistent mark‐up of women in work in East relative to West German regions that are often associated with legacy effects of the socialist regime that was in place in East Germany during the country's four decades of division. In contrast to the conventional wisdom in academia, policy, and the public, the current paper shows that the higher share of working women in East German regions is not due to a legacy of socialism. Female labor force participation was already remarkably higher in the East before the introduction of socialism. The general lesson is that any attempt to explain spatial variation in individual decision‐making by persisting institutional and cultural legacies of certain historical episodes needs to assess regional conditions predating these episodes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the cusp catastrophe in a two‐strategy population game with exogenous locational asymmetries and its application to spatial economics. We derive approximating games of two kinds: a cusp catastrophe form and a more general form. As a novel contribution of this paper, the effects of an arbitrary number of regional asymmetries are expressed using only three asymmetry parameters, thereby allowing for an analytical analysis. We find a new behavior with hysteresis using the general form. The usefulness of the forms is demonstrated for two economic geography models. A numerical recipe is presented to construct the cusp catastrophe form. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The road system built during the Roman Empire continues to have a significant impact on modern infrastructure in Italy. This paper examines the historical influence of Roman roads on the development of Italy's motorways and railways. The empirical analysis demonstrates how modern Italian transport infrastructure largely follows the path of the consular trajectories established by the network of Roman roads. These ancient roads, being paved and connecting the extremes of the Italian peninsula, have endured over time, serving as the foundational physical capital for the development of the current transport network. Overall, this research highlights the enduring legacy of the Roman road system and the robustness of Roman roads as an instrument in determining the causal effect of modern infrastructure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the role played by public capital on the production level of Italian regions by specifically accounting for the quality of institutions. Our analysis, carried out over the period 2000–2019, benefits from a rich data set on public expenditures. This allows us to build the regional public capital stock by distinguishing among public institutions in charge of the investments and sectors of intervention. While controlling for several contextual variables (human capital, technological capital, and population density), the main results show that public capital has a positive and significant effect on production. Most interestingly, looking at Mezzogiorno's regions, public capital carried out by local institutions turns out to have a lower impact than in the rest of the Italian regions. On the other hand, central bodies in the South exhibit an impact higher than the average. Moreover, institutions' quality exhibits a positive and significant effect on regional economic performance. These results cast serious doubts about the local Southern administrations' capacity to effectively manage the National Recovery and Resilience Plan's enormous resources and the new European Union cohesion framework 2021–2027. Our results are also relevant for other European regions that, featuring structural traits similar to Southern Italian regions, are expected to face the same difficulties in managing public funding. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses high‐frequency nighttime lights data and a variety of empirical methods to analyze the impacts of the Covid‐19 crisis on economic activity during the period January 2020–March 2021 for a global sample of 2841 cities. Particular attention is paid to the role of a city's population density in shaping these impacts. While economic activity in cities is found to be negatively affected by both the spread of the virus and the imposition of nonpharmaceutical interventions, population density is found to amplify the negative impacts of the spread of the virus and attenuate those of nonpharmaceutical interventions. These results are driven by cities in low‐ and middle‐income countries, where overall economic activity is found to have been more strongly hit by the pandemic and the strength of those impacts was stronger for less densely populated cities. The role of population density in shaping the economic impacts of the Covid‐19 crisis across cities is confirmed by an event‐study analysis. Taken together, the findings suggest that the Covid‐19 crisis gave rise to divergent urban economic trajectories, both between high‐ and lower‐income countries and between cities with different population densities in lower‐income countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ongoing global pandemic has brought into sharp relief the possible interactions between the epidemiology of a virus, the structure of the economy and society that becomes exposed to it, and the actions chosen by government, individuals, and communities to combat it or ameliorate its economic impact. Surprisingly, there has not been sufficient research on these economic and policy interactions of the 1918–1920 influenza pandemic—the deadliest pandemic of the 20th century. This paper focuses on Japan, which as a minor participant of and was not directly affected by World War I. We exploit the diversity of experiences with the pandemic and its attendant policy responses across Japanese prefectures; and investigate the importance of the pandemic's toll (measured by excess mortality), and of nonpharmaceutical policy interventions (NPIs), in determining the pandemic's economic impact. We do so by focusing on the production and employment in the textile sector, given the availability of data and the general importance of the textile sector for emerging economies (as Japan was at the time). We find a significant adverse impact of the pandemic on textiles (almost 30% for an average prefectural excess mortality shock) and indeed find that the implemented NPIs were effective in ameliorating around one half of the pandemic's adverse economic consequences, especially for textile output (rather than employment). Furthermore, these NPIs were more effective when the excess mortality was higher. In this case, there was no trade‐off between money and life, but rather the two were complimentary. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the effects of COVID‐19‐induced lockdowns on recorded crime in England. The enforcement of lockdowns at both the national and local levels allows unveiling the impact on criminal activities by type of shutdown policy. Using official crime data across the universe of local authorities, we find that unlike local lockdowns national lockdowns significantly change the shape of recorded criminal activity, with the first nationally‐imposed lockdown having the strongest impact. Findings also reveal that police operations play a prominent role in explaining changes in reported crimes. Back‐of‐the‐envelope calculations suggest that lockdowns reduced the economic costs of crime by £4.2 billion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many academic papers have looked at the economic effects of the EU cohesion policy, which still remain an open empirical issue. The focus of the most recent literature has been on the heterogeneous effects of the policy and the identification of regional conditioning factors. However, most of the existing studies generally assume slope homogeneity for different cross‐sectional units (i.e., regions) and they estimate the average effects of the policy for all the European regions and/or selected groups of regions. Past works also employ data covering few programming periods. This paper has two main goals. First, we study the heterogeneous consequences of EU cohesion policy on regional economic growth in Europe over the past three decades, by applying a heterogeneous coefficient approach to new panel‐time series data. We calculate the region‐specific effects of the policy in terms of long‐run gross domestic product growth. Second, we study regional differences in terms of policy effects depending on the level of assistance received by the regions. We make a distinction among cases of effective, ineffective, trigger and marginal policy. We also document that the effectiveness of EU cohesion policy in the long run can be explained by some of the key factors used in the literature. Finally, we discuss the need for ineffective cases to learn from effective and trigger ones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Even though densification and social mixing are declared objectives of many nowadays urban planning paradigms, their simultaneous implementation is usually questioned by different actors and is not frequent in practice. In a market economy, understanding potential demand for this class of development, from different types of households, is essential to define public policies oriented to achieve both compact development (CD) and social mixture. To understand the preferences of households and potential demand, we implement a location choice model based on a bid–rent framework and spatial latent classes (LC), using census data and location attributes. By using spatial LC, we do not impose exogenous definitions of which zones are perceived as CD or suburban, rendering a robust method to identify variation in preferences. We apply the model to Santiago de Chile, where social mixing in dense and well‐located areas is being intensely discussed. We find strong differences in households' valuation of attributes between spatial classes. Results show that social mixing is more difficult in dense, well‐connected areas than in suburban areas because higher‐income households are more sensitive to the socioeconomic context of the location in compact areas. Besides showing evidence on household preferences and their implications for social‐mixing policies, this paper also provides a proof of concept for the use of spatial LC (proposed in previous work by the authors), showing this is a robust methodology allowing to generate behavior‐based classifications for urban areas. The paper also contributes methodologically, by deriving the elasticity formulation for bid‐auction location choice models, which allows quantifying the importance of location attributes in location probability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

City officials are continuously working to attract airlines willing to fly to new destinations. The inherent expectation is that a more extensive aviation network stimulates economic growth. This paper investigates empirically the causal implication of this hypothesis. Using data on nonstop flights by origin and destination over the period 1984–2013, we propose a new measure for a metropolitan area's connectivity to the national aviation network. We then use this measure to investigate its contribution to local economic development, as captured by the growth in population, in total employment, in per‐capita income, and new firm entry. To ensure causality, we use instrumental variable methods that exploit geography and destination airports growth as a way to capture the exogenous variation in the likelihood to add new travel routes. Our results suggest that a metropolitan area's air connectivity, resulting from an expansive local aviation network, has a positive effect on population, on employment and on the number of businesses established in that location. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is well known that the value of a house depends both on the physical characteristics and on some features of the neighborhood in which it is located. If so, organized‐crime activities can significantly affect urban real estate values. Antimafia policies, in turn, can be intended as a tool to influence those external features. This paper compares the effects on real estate values of the two main antimafia policies implemented in Italy since the 1990s at the municipal level. While we do not find any significant effect of dismissal policies on house prices, we find a statistically significant effect of reassignment policies depending on the specific destination of confiscated property. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As wildfires increase in both severity and frequency, understanding the role of risk saliency on human behaviors in the face of fire risks becomes paramount. While research has shown that homebuyers capitalize wildfire risk following a fire, studies of the role that risk saliency plays on residential development is limited. This paper aims to fill this gap by studying the link between wildfire risk saliency and the rate of residential development in wildfire‐prone areas, by treating recent wildfires as conditionally exogenous shocks to saliency. Using geospatial data on residential development in Colorado, we show that saliency shocks due to wildfire lead to statistically significant reductions in the rate of new development in wildfire risk zones that last upwards of 5 years, a result that is robust to a number of alternative explanations. We explore the policy implications of these findings, noting that education on fire risks may curtail some but not all of the development in these high wildfire‐risk areas due to the rapid growth of development in these regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we develop a three‐region economic geography model with workers of heterogeneous skills and mobility rates to consider how first‐nature, regional differences impact both inter‐ and intraregional inequality. In our model, the skill premium within a region summarizes both the degree of intraregional inequality between mobile, skilled workers and immobile, unskilled workers and the interregional inequality through differences in the welfare of unskilled workers across regions. Regions with the highest skill premium have the greatest degree of intraregional inequality and provide the lowest level of welfare to unskilled workers, relative to other regions. We find that the skill premium will be higher in regions with a greater supply of unskilled labor, lower supply of housing, or are more remote. An increase in a region's housing supply or centrality will lower intraregional inequality and raise the welfare of the local, unskilled workforce. However, the magnitude of these changes are declining in the initial number of skilled workers in the region. The model is extended to consider imperfectly elastic housing supply. The larger the price elasticity of housing, the larger the range of values, such that more populated regions will host a disproportionate share of skilled workers, have lower levels of intraregional inequality, and provide higher levels of welfare for unskilled workers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The standard theory of optimal jurisdictional size hinges on the existence of economies of scale in the provision of local public goods and services. However, despite its relevance for forced local amalgamation programs and related policies, the empirical evidence on the existence of such economies of scale remains elusive. The main goal of this paper is to produce an updated and comprehensive quantitative review of the existence of economies of scale in the provision of local public goods using a meta‐analysis approach to systematize the wide range of empirical approaches and modeling frameworks found in the previous literature. Our analysis confirms the presence of moderately increasing to constant returns to scale in the provision of local services with no reduction in the average costs of production in the delivery of most local public services beyond a certain, modest jurisdictional size, which many studies have estimated at 10,000 residents. Also, the potential for economies of scale differs at least across three traditional services: education, water and sanitation, and garbage collection, being highest for education and lowest for garbage collection. Our analysis also offers guidelines for future empirical research in this area. Physical output and production cost data should be used, together with translog specifications for the modeling of cost functions. Last, we find evidence that the determinants of output cost elasticity include bidirectional publication bias and population density but do not include the presence or absence of modern "lean" production technologies or the (perceived) capital intensity of the sector, contrary to conventional wisdom. These findings have significant policy implications for countries considering jurisdictional consolidation programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Populations are affected by shocks of different kinds, and wars, a priori, may be among the most prominent. This article studies the effect of the Spanish Civil War (1936–1939) shock on the distribution of population, especially on cities. One of the main contributions of this study is that it underlines the importance of distinguishing between winning and losing sides, an aspect which until now has been largely overlooked. While previous research on war shocks has also tended to be concerned with inter‐state wars, this paper concentrates on a civil war. We take advantage of a new, long‐term, annual data set. Our results show that, overall, the Spanish Civil War did not have a significant effect on city growth. However, we also find a significant and negative effect in the growth of cities that aligned themselves with the losing side. These results are robust to heterogeneity in the effect of the war shock, measured as war severity and duration. Although short lived, the temporary effect on growth results in a permanent effect on the size of cities on the losing side. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides evidence about location and colocation patterns of manufacturing entrepreneurship and spatial scope of agglomeration economies in the context of a developing country. Using microgeographic data for all Brazilian manufacturing activities and distance‐based measures, we find clear patterns of colocalization between entrants and existing establishments, and that these patterns occur mainly at short distances. For activities presenting colocalization between entrants and existing establishments, our results also indicate that a greater number of incumbent establishments in a given location positively affects the number of entrant establishments that decide to locate there, an effect that attenuates rapidly with distance (generally disappearing after 5 km). This pattern of attenuation is robust to both the inclusion of a comprehensive set of controls for observable and unobservable local characteristics and the use of instrumental variables to address remaining endogeneity concerns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper investigates whether firms have better access to bank credit in territories characterized by a larger degree of urbanization. It uses Italian bank‐firm data drawn from the Credit Register to devise an indicator of easiness of access to credit. The paper proposes an instrumental variable strategy that exploits as instruments past population density and urbanization driven by political economy considerations. The results show that urbanization positively affects access to credit for construction firms, whose collateral greatly benefits from thicker real estate markets. No impact is found for service and manufacturing firms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]