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The recent understandings about global earth mechanics are widely based on huge amounts of monitoring data accumulated using global networks of precise seismic stations, satellite monitoring of gravity, very large baseline interferometry, and the Global Positioning System. New discoveries in materials sciences of rocks and minerals and of rock deformation with fluid water in the earth also provide essential information. This book presents recent work on natural geometry, spatial and temporal distribution patterns of various cracks sealed by minerals, and time scales of their crack sealing in the plate boundary. Furthermore, the book includes a challenging investigation of stochastic earthquake prediction testing by means of the updated deep machine learning of a convolutional neural network with multi-labeling of large earthquakes and of the generative autoencoder modeling of global correlated seismicity. Their manifestation in this book contributes to the development of human societyresilient from natural hazards. Presented here are (1) mechanics of natural crack sealing and fluid flow in the plate boundary regions, (2) large-scale permeable convection of the plate boundary, (3) the rapid process of massive extrusion of plate boundary rocks, (4) synchronous satellite gravity and global correlated seismicity, (5) Gaussian network dynamics of global correlated seismicity, and (6) prediction testing of plate boundary earthquakes by machine learning and generative autoencoders.

The Possibility of Earthquake Forecasting uses a holistic approach to address the problems of earthquake forecasting, demonstrating the earthquake preparation process as a complex system that relies on the interaction of different geospheres. The purpose of the book is to widen the understanding of the earthquake preparation process and to inform the audience that not only seismometers are necessary for earthquake forecasting. It illustrates how applications of space technologies like remote sensing in situ measurements and GPS TEC provide rich information on the process and help to conclude that the earthquake is coming. The authors explain the physical nature of the observed pre-earthquake anomalies and how their approach is working by utilizing rich illustrations of precursory phenomena in different geospheres.

The book covers multi-disciplinary topics in observational, computational and applied geophysics in aspects of solid earth system. The authors provide an up-to-date overview for methods and techniques in seismology, with a focus on fault structure, strong ground motion and earthquake forecast based on full-3D earth structure models. Abundant of case studies make it a practical reference for researchers in seismology and applied geophysics.

This volume collects several extended articles from the first workshop on Best Practices in Physics-based Fault Rupture Models for Seismic Hazard Assessment of Nuclear Installations (BestPSHANI). Held in 2015, the workshop was organized by the IAEA to disseminate the use of physics-based fault-rupture models for ground motion prediction in seismic hazard assessments (SHA). The book also presents a number of new contributions on topics ranging from the seismological aspects of earthquake cycle simulations for source scaling evaluation, seismic source characterization, source inversion and physics-based ground motion modeling to engineering applications of simulated ground motion for the analysis of seismic response of structures. Further, it includes papers describing current practices for assessing seismic hazard in terms of nuclear safety in low seismicity areas, and proposals for physics-based hazard assessment for critical structures near large earthquakes. The papers validate and verify the models by comparing synthetic results with observed data and empirical models. The book is a valuable resource for scientists, engineers, students and practitioners involved in all aspects of SHA.

Each year the world faces thousands of earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 or greater, resulting in devastating property destruction and tragic loss of life. To help avert these catastrophes, scientists have long searched for ways to predict when and where earthquakes will happen. The earth science establishment in the US says that earthquake prediction still lies outside the realm of possibility. But recent scientific developments across the globe suggest that seismic forecasting is on the horizon.Earthquake Prediction: Dawn of the New Seismology examines the latest scientific clues in hopes of discovering seismic precursors which may shed light on real earthquake prediction in the future. It is destined to be nothing less than an epoch-changing work, addressing this ancient enigma by joining the parts of a scientific detective story that ranges from the steppes of Russia to the coast of Chile, bringing to light astounding breakthroughs by researchers in Italy, India and elsewhere. Governments in countries such as China and Japan provide support for seismic forecasting, and it is time for our country to do the same. Earthquake Prediction makes the case, with an important message for the tens of millions of Americans on the US West Coast, the Mississippi River Valley, and other seismically active zones.

This monograph provides an up-to-date overview on methods and techniques in seismology, with a focus on describing and detecting seismic waves in anisotropic media. The author discusses structural, physical and mechanical aspects of the crust by analyzing earthquake data from field studies, rendering the book a practical reference for researchers in seismology and applied geophysics. Contents:Rock Anisotropy, Fracture and Earthquake AssessmentSeismic Wave Propagation in Anisotropic Rocks with Applications to Defining Fractures in Earth CrustReproducing the Realistic Compressive-tensile Strength Ratio of Rocks using Discrete Element ModelRock Fracture under Static and Dynamic StressMultiple Linear Regression Analyses on the Relationships among Magnitude, Rupture Length, Rupture Width, Rupture Area, and Surface DisplacementPI Algorithm Applied to the Sichuan-Yunnan Region: A Statistical Physics Method for Intermediate-term Medium-range Earthquake Forecast in Continental ChinaProbabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Pacific Island Countries

This book is the first comprehensive and methodologically rigorous analysis of earthquake occurrence. Models based on the theory of the stochastic multidimensional point processes are employed to approximate the earthquake occurrence pattern and evaluate its parameters. The Author shows that most of these parameters have universal values. These results help explain the classical earthquake distributions: Omori's law and the Gutenberg-Richter relation. The Author derives a new negative-binomial distribution for earthquake numbers, instead of the Poisson distribution, and then determines a fractal correlation dimension for spatial distributions of earthquake hypocenters. The book also investigates the disorientation of earthquake focal mechanisms and shows that it follows the rotational Cauchy distribution. These statistical and mathematical advances make it possible to produce quantitative forecasts of earthquake occurrence. In these forecasts earthquake rate in time, space, and focal mechanism orientation is evaluated.

As evidenced dramatically and tragically in 2011 alone,earthquakes cause devastation and their consequences in terms of human suffering and economic disaster can last for years or even decades. The VAN method of earthquake prediction, based on the detection and measurement of low frequency electric signals called Seismic Electric Signals (SES), has been researched and evaluated over 30 years, and now constitutes the only earthquake prediction effort that has led to concrete successful results. This book recounts the history of the VAN method, detailing how it has developed and been tested under international scrutiny.Earthquake Prediction by Seismic Electric Signals• describes, step by step, the development of the VAN method since 1981;• explains both the theoretical model underpinning the research and the physical properties of SES;• analyzes the SES recordings and the prediction for each major earthquake in Greece over the last 25 years;• introduces a new time domain, natural time, which plays a key role in predicting impending catastrophic events.

The vulnerability of our civilization to earthquakes is rapidly growing, rais­ ing earthquakes to the ranks of major threats faced by humankind. Earth­ quake prediction is necessary to reduce that threat by undertaking disaster­ preparedness measures. This is one of the critically urgent problems whose solution requires fundamental research. At the same time, prediction is a ma­ jor tool of basic science, a source of heuristic constraints and the final test of theories. This volume summarizes the state-of-the-art in earthquake prediction. Its following aspects are considered: - Existing prediction algorithms and the quality of predictions they pro­ vide. - Application of such predictions for damage reduction, given their current accuracy, so far limited. - Fundamental understanding of the lithosphere gained in earthquake prediction research. - Emerging possibilities for major improvements of earthquake prediction methods. - Potential implications for predicting other disasters, besides earthquakes. Methodologies. At the heart of the research described here is the inte­ gration of three methodologies: phenomenological analysis of observations;'universal'models of complex systems such as those considered in statistical physics and nonlinear dynamics; and Earth-specific models of tectonic fault networks. In addition, the theory of optimal control is used to link earthquake prediction with earthquake preparedness.