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Abstract: In recent years, many academy researchers have proposed several forecasting models based on technical analysis to predict models such as . After reviewing the literature, two major drawbacks are found in past models: (1) the forecasting models based on artificial intelligence algorithms (AI), such as neural networks (NN) and genetic algorithms (GAs), produce complex and unintelligible rules; and (2) statistic forecasting models, such as time series, require some basic assumptions for variables and build forecasting models based on mathematic equations, which are not easily understandable by stock investors. In order to refine these drawbacks of past models, this paper has proposed a model, based on adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system which uses multi-technical indicators, to predict stock price trends. Three refined processes have proposed in the hybrid model for forecasting: (1) select essential technical indicators from popular indicators by a correlation matrix; (2) use the subtractive clustering method to partition technical indicator value into linguistic values based on an data discretization method; (3) employ a fuzzy inference system (FIS) to extract rules of linguistic terms from the dataset of the technical indicators, and optimize the FIS parameters based on an adaptive network to produce forecasts. A six-year period of the TAIEX is employed as experimental database to evaluate the proposed model with a performance indicator, root mean squared error (RMSE). The experimental results have shown that the proposed model is superior to two listing models (Chen’s and Yu’s models). [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Stock price variation predictions are at the core of many research issues, and neural networks (NNs) are widely applied and were proven to be more efficient than time series forecasting for stock price forecasting. However, this type of research always determines the parameter settings of the NNs rationally through a trial-and-error methodology. This paper integrates design of experiment (DOE), Taguchi method, and back-propagation NN (BPNN) to construct a robust engine to further optimize the prediction accuracy under a robust DOE-based predictor. Adopting data from Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE), the technical analytical indexes and β value of the listed stocks of TWSE were computed. The research results indicated that the proposed approach can effectively improve the forecasting rate of stock price variations. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper presents an efficient technique for analyzing ARGO ocean data comprising time series of salinity/temperature measurements where informative salinity/temperature patterns are extracted. Most traditional mining techniques focus on finding associations among items within one transaction and are therefore unable to discover rich contextual patterns related to location and time. In order to show the associated salinity/temperature variations among different locations and time intervals, for example, “if the salinity rose from 0.15psu to 0.25psu in the area that is in the east–northeast direction and is near Taiwan, then the temperature will rise from 0°C to 1.2°C in the area that is in the east–northeast direction and is far away from Taiwan next month”, a quantitative inter-transaction association rules mining algorithm is proposed. The FITI and the PrefixSpan algorithms are adopted to maximize the mining efficiency. The strategy is applied to ocean salinity measurements obtained from the waters surrounding Taiwan. These experimental evaluations show that the proposed algorithm achieves better performance than other inter-transaction association rule mining algorithms. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper proposes a hybrid methodology that exploits the unique strength of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and the support vector machines (SVM) model in forecasting seasonal time series. The seasonal time series data of Taiwan’s machinery industry production values were used to examine the forecasting accuracy of the proposed hybrid model. The forecasting performance was compared among three models, i.e., the hybrid model, SARIMA models and the SVM models, respectively. Among these methods, the normalized mean square error (NMSE) and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the hybrid model were the lowest. The hybrid model was also able to forecast certain significant turning points of the test time series. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Using a sample of 59 Taiwanese firms in distress, we investigate investor gains or losses around the filing date and the confirmation date of the reorganization plan and propose ex ante trading strategies that can generate potentially substantial returns from these stocks. We further experiment with a novel approach to sensitivity analysis of neural network inputs for refining and rating the most important input variables and then construct artificial neural network (ANN) models to classify and predict the post-reorganization filing resolutions in a three- (Model 1) and two-group (Models 2 and 3) resolution setting. We are unaware of any other paper that has used artificial intelligence techniques in analyzing post-bankruptcy resolutions. The results show that our five-variable models produce a consistent estimate between the training and testing sets; that is, both three- and two-group models are of a high degree of accuracy and stability, demonstrating the robustness of the ANN models. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In this paper, we present a new framework for knowledge-based intelligent decision support systems for developing a national defense budget planning. The planning procedure for and architecture of the national defense budget in Taiwan are discussed in detail. In particular, the theories and techniques of intelligent decision support are used in the yearly practical budget planning process. Based on data in the financial database and knowledge in the knowledge base, we easily adjust the beforehand budget proposal. Furthermore, a knowledge-based intelligent decision support system has been implemented and it collects a series of rules extracted from national defense experts for successful reasoning. By using forward reasoning and knowledge rules, the system can automatically change and regenerate the national defense budget plan immediately. Finally, the empirical functions of the KIDSS system are also addressed. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]