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Addressing water scarcity challenges in arid regions is a pressing concern and demands innovative solutions for accurate groundwater potential mapping (GPM). This study presents a comprehensive evaluation of advanced modeling techniques to enhance the precision of GPM. This study, conducted in the Zayandeh Rood watershed, Iran, employed a spatial database comprising 16 influential factors on groundwater potential and data from 175 wells. This study introduced an innovative approach to GPM by enhancing the Random Forest (RF) algorithm. This enhancement involved integrating three metaheuristic algorithms inspired by human behavior: ICA (Imperialist Competitive Algorithm), TLBO (Teaching-Learning-Based Optimization), and SBO (Student Psychology Based Optimization). The modeling process used 70% training data and 30% evaluation data. Data preprocessing was performed using the multicollinearity test method and frequency ratio (FR) technique to refine the dataset. Subsequently, the GPM was generated using four distinct models, demonstrating the combined power of machine learning and human-inspired metaheuristic algorithms. The performance of the models was systematically assessed through extensive statistical analyses, including root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), area under the curve (AUC) for the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), Friedman tests, chi-squared tests, and Wilcoxon signed-rank tests. RF-ICA and RF-SPBO emerged as frontrunners, displaying statistically comparable accuracy and significantly outperforming RF-TLBO and the non-optimized RF model. The results of the GPM revealed the exceptional accuracy of RF-ICA, which exhibited a commanding AUC score of 0.865, underscoring its superiority in discriminating between different groundwater potential classes. RF-SPBO also displayed strong performance with an AUC of 0.842, highlighting its effectiveness in inaccurate classification. RF-TLBO and the non-optimized RF model achieved AUC values of 0.813 and 0.810, respectively, indicating comparable performance. The outcomes of this study provide valuable insights for policymakers, offering a robust framework for tackling water scarcity challenges in arid regions through precise and reliable groundwater potential assessments., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Considering the significant impact of potentially toxic elements (PTEs) on the ecosystem and human health, this paper, investigated the contamination level of four PTEs (Zn, Cu, Mo and Pb) and their mobility in sediments of Mahabad dam and river. Choosing the most effective machine learning algorithms is very important in accurately predicting bioavailability of PTEs. Therefore, four machine learning (ML) models including decision tree regression (DTR), random forest regression (RFR), multi-layer perceptron regression (MLPR) and support vector regression (SVR), were used and compared for estimating the selected PTEs bioavailability. For these models, 9 variables (total concentration, pH, EC, OM and five chemical forms F1 to F5 obtained by sequential extraction) in 100 sediment samples were considered. The results showed that contamination level decreases from Zn and Cu to Pb and Mo, but the order of the mobility coefficient of the elements in the sediment follows the trend of zinc > copper > molybdenum > lead, and variation coefficient indicated more variability of spatial distribution for Zn and Cu. Among the four tested models, DTR and RFR performed the best for predicting PTEs bioavailability variations (with roc_auc>0.9, R 2  > 0.8 and MSE>0.5), followed by MLPR and SVR. Furthermore, the relevance of the factors controlling the metals availability, evaluated using the RFR-based feature importance method and Pearson correlation, revealed that the most important physicochemical property for Zn, Cu and Mo bioavailability was pH, whereas for Pb, EC was the determinant factor. In the case of chemical speciation, F5 had an inverse correlation with the target, while F1 and F2 had a direct correlation. These fractions contributed significantly to the prediction results. This study represents the potential successful application of ML to PTEs risk control in sediments and early warning for the surrounding water PTEs contamination., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is a growing chronic disease that can lead to disability and early death. This study aimed to establish a predictive model for the 10-year incidence of T2DM based on novel anthropometric indices., Methods: This was a prospective cohort study comparing people with (n = 1256) and without (n = 5193) diabetes mellitus in phase II of the Mashhad Stroke and Heart Atherosclerotic Disorder (MASHAD) study. The association of several anthropometric indices in phase I, including Body Mass Index (BMI), Body Adiposity Index (BAI), Abdominal Volume Index (AVI), Visceral Adiposity Index (VAI), Weight-Adjusted-Waist Index (WWI), Body Roundness Index (BRI), Body Surface Area (BSA), Conicity Index (C-Index) and Lipid Accumulation Product (LAP) with T2DM incidence (in phase II) were examined; using Logistic Regression (LR) and Decision Tree (DT) analysis., Results: BMI followed by VAI and LAP were the best predictors of T2DM incidence. Participants with BMI < 21.25 kg/m 2 and VAI ≤ 5.9 had a lower chance of diabetes than those with higher BMI and VAI levels (0.033 vs. 0.967 incident rate). For BMI > 25 kg/m 2 , the chance of diabetes rapidly increased (OR = 2.27)., Conclusions: BMI, VAI, and LAP were the best predictors of T2DM incidence., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Chain reaction crashes (CRC) begin with a two-vehicle collision and rapidly intensify as more vehicles get directly involved. CRCs result in more extensive damage compared to two-vehicle crashes and understanding the progression of a two-vehicle collision into a CRC can unveil preventive strategies that have received less attention. In this study, to align with recent research direction and overcome the limitations of econometric and machine learning (ML) modelling, a hybrid approach is adopted. Moreover, to tackle the existing challenges in crash analysis, addressing unobserved heterogeneity in ML, and exploring random parameter effects and interactions more precisely, a new approach is proposed. To achieve this, a hybrid random parameter logit model and interpretable ML, joint with prior latent class clustering is implemented. Notably, this is the first attempt at using a clustering with hybrid modeling. The significant risk factors, their critical values, distinct effects, and interactions are interpreted using both marginal effects and the SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) method across clusters. This study utilizes crash, traffic, and geometric data from eleven suburban freeways in Iran collected over a 5-year period. The overall results indicate an increased risk of CRC in congested traffic, higher traffic variation, and on horizontal curves combined with longitudinal slopes. Some parameters exhibit distinct or fluctuating effects, which are discussed across different conditions or considering interactions. For instance, during nighttime, heightened congestion on 2-lane freeways, increased traffic variation in less congested conditions, and adverse weather combined with horizontal curves and slopes pose risks. During daytime, increased traffic variation within highly congested sections, higher proportion of heavy vehicle traffic in moderately congested sections, and two lanes in each direction coupled with curves, elevate the levels of risk. The results of this study provide a better understanding of risk factors impact across different conditions, which are usable for policy makers., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Methanol poisoning is a global public health concern, especially prevalent in developing nations. This study focuses on predicting the severity of methanol intoxication using machine learning techniques, aiming to improve early identification and prognosis assessment. The study, conducted at Loghman Hakim Hospital in Tehran, Iran. The data pertaining to individuals afflicted with methanol poisoning was retrieved retrospectively and divided into training and test groups at a ratio of 70:30. The selected features were then inputted into various machine learning methods. The models were implemented using the Scikit-learn library in the Python programming language. Ultimately, the efficacy of the developed models was assessed through ten-fold cross-validation techniques and specific evaluation criteria, with a confidence level of 95%. A total number of 897 patients were included and divided in three groups including without sequel (n = 573), with sequel (n = 234), and patients who died (n = 90). The two-step feature selection was yielded 43 features in first step and 23 features in second step. In best model (Gradient Boosting Classifier) test dataset metric by 32 features younger age, higher methanol ingestion, respiratory symptoms, lower GCS scores, type of visual symptom, duration of therapeutic intervention, ICU admission, and elevated CPK levels were among the most important features predicting the prognosis of methanol poisoning. The Gradient Boosting Classifier demonstrated the highest predictive capability, achieving AUC values of 0.947 and 0.943 in the test dataset with 43 and 23 features, respectively. This research introduces a machine learning-driven prognostic model for methanol poisoning, demonstrating superior predictive capabilities compared to traditional statistical methods. The identified features provide valuable insights for early intervention and personalized treatment strategies., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

The COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly impacted every aspect of our lives, from economic to the social facets of contemporary society. While the new COVID-19 waves may not be anticipated to be as severe as previous ones, it would be unreasonable to assume that they will cease any time soon. Consequently, forecasting the number of future infections, recovered patients, and death cases remains a very much logical step in trying to fight against further waves, in conjunction with ongoing vaccination efforts. In this paper, we investigate the efficiency of three intelligent machine learning algorithms, namely GMDH, Bi-LSTM, and GA + NN, for COVID-19 forecasting, with an application to Iran and the United Kingdom. The experimental results show that the algorithms can be used to forecast the next six months of COVID-19 in terms of confirmed, recovered, and death cases, which gives a more ample timeframe for using the results to make better practical yet strategic decisions and take appropriate actions or measures to deploy resources effectively to contain or curb the spread of the coronavirus. Despite the distinct dynamics observed in the data, our analysis proves the robustness of the employed models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal areas are at a higher risk of flooding, and novel changes in the climate are induced to raise the sea level. Flood acceleration and frequency have increased recently because of unplanned infrastructural conveniences and anthropogenic activities. Therefore, the assessment of flood susceptibility mapping is considered the most significant flood management model. In this paper, flood susceptibility identification is performed by applying the innovative Multi-criteria decision-making model (MCDM) called Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) by ensembles with Support vector machine (AHP-SVM) and Decision Tree (AHP-DT). This model combines two Representation concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios such as RCP 2.6 & RCP 8.5. The factors influencing the coastal flooding in Bandar Abbas, Iran, identified through Flood susceptibility mapping. Multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) has been applied to evaluate the Coastal flood conditioning factors, and ensemble machine learning (ML) approaches are employed for Coastal risk factor (CRF) prediction and classification. The statistical variances are measured through Friedman and Wilcoxon signed rank tests and statistical metrics such as Accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. Among the models, AHP-DT obtained an improved AUC value of ROC as 0.95. After applying the ML models, the northern and western park of Raidak Basin River recognises very low and low flood susceptibility because of their topographic characteristics. The eastern part of the middle section fell very high and high CFSM. Observed from this result analysis, the people living nearer to the coastline are distributed by the low to medium exposure in the region of the west and middle of the considered study area. The results of this study can help decision-makers take necessary risk reduction approaches in the high-risk flooding zones of the coastal system., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2023 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

The ionosphere is the upper part of the Earth's atmosphere, which is considered to be approximately 70 to 1000 km above the Earth's surface. Ionosphere modeling has been one of the goals of spatial geodesy since 1970. In many ionosphere modeling using satellite measurements such as GPS, total electron content (TEC) are used as observational input data. In recent years, modeling and prediction of the TEC have been considered by researchers with methods that have high speed and accuracy. One of the branches that has been able to show good capabilities in the field of estimation and modeling is machine learning methods (ML). Machine learning includes fuzzy inference systems (FIS), artificial neural networks (ANNs), genetic algorithms (GAs), support vector machines (SVMs), and evolutionary communications (ECs). Since 1993, with the advancement of computer technology, many new and hybrid algorithms, such as the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), have been developed in ML. Another new effective approach in ML is the support vector regression (SVR) method. The SVR is a kernel-based ML method for classification and regression in which the risk of incorrect classification is minimized. The structure of an SVR network has a lot in common with the ANN, and the main difference is practically in the way of the training algorithm. In general, this method is divided into linear and nonlinear modes. In this paper, the TEC of the ionosphere is modeled and evaluated with ML models. Support vector regression (SVR) and artificial neural network (ANN) methods are used for local TEC modeling. In both models, the latitude and longitude of the GPS stations, day of the year (DOY), hours, AP, KP, DST, and F10.7 are considered an input vectors. Also, the value of VTEC is considered as the output of the models. The main innovation of this paper is in evaluating the effect of different physical parameters on the accuracy of ML models. Using observations of 15 GPS stations in the northwest of Iran from 193 to 228 in 2012, new models are evaluated. Also, the results of the new models are compared with the results of the global ionosphere map (GIM), the IRI2016, and NeQuick empirical models in two internal and one external control station. Statistical indices of root mean square error (RMSE), relative error, dVTEC, and correlation coefficient are used to evaluate the error of the models. Sensitivity analysis of SVR and ANN models to input parameters is performed and the importance of each physical parameter in spatio-temporal modeling of the ionosphere is investigated. The results obtained from this paper show that in both high and low geomagnetic and solar activities, the SVR model in internal control stations has a higher accuracy than other models. But at the external control station, the error of the SVR model is much higher than other models. Determining the parameters of the kernel function using observations at the territory of the studied network is the reason. Also, the sensitivity of SVR and ANN models is increased to the physical parameters F10.7, KP, DST, and AP, respectively. For precise local ionosphere modeling, the effect of these parameters must also be considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper for the first time improved a Robust Multi-Output machine learning regression model for seismic hazard zoning of Turkey, Iraq and Iran using constructed 3-D shear-wave velocity (Vs), seismic tomography dataset model for the crust and uppermost mantle beneath the study area. The focus of this paper's opportunity is to develop a scientific framework leveraging machine learning that will ultimately provide the rapid and more complete characterization of earthquake properties. This work can be targeted at improving the seismic hazard zones system ability to detect and associate seismic signals, or at estimating other seismic characteristics (crust acceleration and crust energy) while traditionally, methods cannot monitor the earthquakes system. This work has derived some physical equations for extraction of many variables as inputs for our developed machine learning model based on a reliable understanding of the tomography data to physical variables by preparing huge dataset from different physical conditions of crust. We have extracted the velocity values of the shear waves from the original NETCDF file, which contains the S velocity values for every one km of the depths of the crust for the study area from one km down to the uppermost mantle beneath the Middle East. For the first time, this study calculated new seismic hazard parameter called Peak Crust Acceleration (PCA) for seismic hazard analysis by considering the transmitted initial seismic energy through the Earth's crust layers from hypocenter. All machine learning algorithms in this study wrote in python language using anaconda platform the open-source Individual Edition (Distribution). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land subsidence (LS) is one of the most challenging natural disasters that has potential consequences such as damage to infrastructures and buildings, creating sinkholes, and leading to soil destruction. To mitigate the damages caused by LS, it is necessary to determine the LS-prone areas. In this paper, LS susceptibility was assessed for Kashan Plain in Iran using Random Forest (RF) and XGBoost machine learning algorithms. For the susceptibility analysis, twelve influential factors including elevation, slope, aspect, curvature, topographic wetness index (TWI), groundwater drawdown (GWD), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), distance to stream (DtS), distance to road (DtR), distance to fault (DtF), lithology, and land use were taken into account. 291 LS points were used in this study which was divided into two parts of 70% and 30% for training and testing the models, respectively. The prediction power of the models and their produced LS susceptibility maps (LSSMs) were validated using the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), R-Squared (R2), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) values. The results showed that the XGBoost had a higher R² equal to 0.9032 compared to that of the RF which was equal to 0.8355. XGBoost model had an RMSE equal to 0.3764 cm compared to that of the RF model which was equal to 0.4906 cm. MAE for the XGBoost model was 0.1217 cm and for the RF model was 0.3050 cm. Therefore, the achieved results proved that XGBoost had better performance in this research for predicting LS values based on the measured ones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Electricity distribution companies are in-charge-of supplying stable electric energy to urban customers over a wide geographical area. In these distribution networks, large number of Distribution-Transformers (DTs) are installed on towers or in electric-rooms with the ratings below 1000 kVA, which are the most important assets of distribution companies. Periodic maintenance and test services are not economically feasible for all in-operation transformers. Hence, estimating the remaining useful life and scheduling the maintenance times of DTs are of great technical and economic importance. An analytical approach is presented in this paper for predicting lifetime of DTs based on degree of polymerization. An appropriate Machine-Learning (ML) algorithm trained by measured data is selected for forecasting driven load according to the ambient temperature and humidity and day-hour schedules. The relation of Hot-Spot-Temperature in IEC60076∼7 is modified based on the measured data for accounting unbalanced-loading. Neutral-current is predicted using a trained ML-model. Another approach is proposed for determining times of oil filtering services aiming to minimize the maintenance cost and maximizing the remaining life. The proposed lifetime estimation method is validated by comparing its results with the damaged DT data of a sample network chosen as the case studies for this research, i.e., Bushehr province, Iran. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper employs machine learning algorithms to detect tax evasion and analyzes tax data. With the development of commercial businesses, traditional algorithms are not appropriate for solving the tax evasion detection problem. Hence, other algorithms with acceptable speed, precision, analysis, and data decisions must be used. In the case of assets and tax assessment, the integration of machine learning models with meta-heuristic algorithms increases accuracy due to optimal parameters. In this paper, intelligent machine learning algorithms are used to solve tax evasion detection. This research uses an improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO) algorithm to improve the multilayer perceptron neural network by finding the optimal weight and improving support vector machine (SVM) classifiers with optimal parameters. The IPSO-MLP and IPSO-SVM models using the IPSO algorithm are used as new models for tax evasion detection. Our proposed system applies the dataset collected from the general administration of tax affairs of West Azerbaijan province of Iran with 1500 samples for the tax evasion detection problem. The evaluations show that the IPSO-MLP model has a higher accuracy rate than the IPSO-SVM model and logistic regression. Moreover, the IPSO-MLP model has higher accuracy than SVM, Naive Bayes, k-nearest neighbor, C5.0 decision tree, and AdaBoost. The accuracy of IPSO-MLP and IPSO-SVM models is 93.68% and 92.24%, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought as a natural phenomenon has always been a serious threat to regions with hot and dry climates. One of the major effects of drought is the drop in groundwater level. This paper focused on the SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) and SWI (Standardized Water-Level Index) to assess meteorological and hydrological drought, respectively. In the first part, we used different time frames of SPI (3, 6, 12, and 24 months) to investigate drought in Yazd, a dry province in the center of Iran for 29 years (1990–2018). Then, in the second part, the relationship between SPI and SWI was investigated in the three aquifers of Yazd by some rain gauge stations and the closest observation wells to them. In addition to using SPI and SWI, we also used different machine learning (ML) algorithms to predict drought conditions including linear model and six non-linear models of K_Nearest_Neighbors, Gradient_Boosting, Decision_Tree, XGBoost, Random_Forest, and Neural_Net. To evaluate the accuracy of the mentioned models, three statistical indicators including Score, RMSE, and MAE were used. Based on the results of the first part, Yazd province has changed from mild wet to mild drought in terms of meteorological drought (the amount of rainfall according to SPI), and this condition can worsen due to climate change. The models used in ML showed that SPI-6 (score ave = 0.977), SPI-3 (score ave = 0.936), SPI-24 (score ave = 0.571), and SPI-12 (score ave = 0.413) indices had the highest accuracy, respectively. The models of Neural_Net (score ave = 0.964–RMSE ave = 0.020–MAE ave = 0.077) and Gradient_Boosting (score ave = 0.551–RMSE ave = 0.124–MAE ave = 0.248) had the highest and lowest accuracy in prediction of the SPI in all four-time scales. Based on the results of the second part, about the SWI, Random_Forest model (score = 0.929–RMSE = 0.052–MAE = 0.150) and model of Neural_Net (score = 0.755–RMSE = 0.235–MAE = 0.456) had the highest and lowest accuracy, respectively. Also, hydrological drought (reduction of the groundwater level) of the region has been much more severe, and according to the low correlation coefficient of average SPI and SWI (R2 = 0.14), we found that the uncontrolled pumping wells, as a main factor than a shortage of rainfall, have aggravated the hydrological drought, and this region is at risk of becoming a more arid region in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many applications in agriculture as well as other related fields including natural resources, environment, health, and sustainability, depend on recent and reliable cropland maps. Cropland extent and intensity plays a critical input variable for the study of crop production and food security around the world. However, generating such variables manually is difficult, expensive, and time consuming. In this work, we discuss a cost effective, fast, and simple machine-learning-based approach to provide reliable cropland mapping model using satellite imagery. The study includes four test regions, namely Iran, Mozambique, Sri-Lanka, and Sudan, where Sentinel-2 satellite imagery were obtained with assigned NDVI scores. The solution presented in this paper discusses a complete pipeline including data collection, time series reconstruction, and cropland extent and crop intensity mapping using machine learning models. The approach proposed managed to achieve high accuracy results ranging between 0.92 and 0.98 across the four test regions at hand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lakes play a pivotal role in the development of cities and have major impacts on the ecosystem balancing of the area. Remote sensing techniques and advanced modeling methods make it possible to monitor natural phenomena, such as lakes' water level. The ecosystem of Urmia Lake is one of the most momentous ecosystems in Iran, which is almost close-ended and has become a global environmental issue in recent years. One of the parameters affecting this lake water level is snowfall, which has a key role in the fluctuations of its water level and water resources management. Hence, the purpose of this paper is the Urmia Lake water level estimation during 2000–2006 using observed water level, snow cover, direct precipitation, and evaporation. For this purpose, Support Vector Regression (SVR), which is the most outstanding kernel method (with various kernel types), has been used. Furthermore, four scenarios are considered with different variables as inputs, and the output of all scenarios is the water level of the lake. The results of training and testing data indicate the substantial impact of snow on retrieving the water level of the Urmia Lake at the desired period, and due to the complexity of the data relationships, the Gaussian kernel generally had better results. On the other hand, Quadratic and Cubic kernels did not work well. The fourth scenario, with RBF kernel has the best results [Training: R2 = 97% and RMSE = 0.09 m, Testing: R2 = 96.97% and RMSE = 0.08 m]. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper deals with optimizing the stock portfolio of active companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange based on the forecast price. This paper is based on a combination of different filtering methods such as optimization of trading rules based on technical analysis (ROC, SMA, EMA, WMA, and MACD at six levels-Very Very Weak (VVW), Very Weak (VW), Weak (W), Strong (S), Very Strong (VS), and Very Very Strong (VVS)), Markov Chains, and Machine Learning (Random Forest and Support Vector Machine) Filter stock exchanges and provide buy signals between 2011 and 2020. In proportion to each combination of filtering methods, a buy signal is issued and based on the mean-variance (M-V) model, the stock portfolio is optimized based on increasing the portfolio return and minimizing the stock portfolio risk. Based on this, out of 480 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange, 85 active companies have been selected and stock portfolio optimization is based on two algorithms, MOGWO and NSGA II. The analysis results show that the use of SVM learning machine leads to minor correlation error than the random forest method. Therefore, this method was used to predict stock prices. Based on the results, it was observed that if the shares of companies are filtered, the risk of transactions decreases, and the return on the stock portfolio increases. Also, if two filtering methods are applied simultaneously, the stock portfolio returns slightly and the risk increases. In the analysis, MOGWO algorithm has obtained 133.13% stock return rate with a risk of 3.346%, while the stock portfolio returns in NSGA II algorithm 107.73, with a risk of 1.459%. Comparison of solution methods shows that the MOGWO algorithm has high efficiency in stock portfolio optimization., Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest., (Copyright © 2022 Nasrin Bagheri Mazraeh et al.)

Featured Application: The presented paper conducted a comparative analysis based on well-known MLP, SVM, DT, and RF learning methods to assess/predict the safety factor (F.S) of earthslopes. Earth slopes' stability analysis is a key task in geotechnical engineering that provides a detailed view of the slope conditions used to implement appropriate stabilizations. In the stability analysis process, calculating the safety factor (F.S) plays an essential part in the stability assessment, which guarantees operations' success. Providing accurate and reliable F.S can be used to improve the stability analysis procedure as well as stabilizations. In this regard, researchers used computational intelligent methodologies to reach highly accurate F.S calculations. The presented study focused on the F.S estimation process and attempted to provide a comparative analysis based on computational intelligence and machine learning methods. In this regard, the well-known multilayer perceptron (MLP), decision tree (DT), support vector machines (SVM), and random forest (RF) learning algorithms were used to predict/calculate F.S for the earth slopes. These machine learning classifiers have a strong capability predict the F.S under certain conditions for slope failures and uncertainties. These models were implemented on a dataset containing 100 earth slopes' stabilities, recorded based on F.S from various locations in the provinces of Fars, Isfahan, and Tehran in Iran, which were randomly divided into the training and testing datasets. These predictive models were validated by Janbu's limit equilibrium analysis method (LEM) and GeoStudio commercial software. Regarding the study's results, MLP (accuracy = 0.901/precision = 0.90) provides more accurate results to predict the F.S than other classifiers, with good agreement with LEM results. The SVM algorithm follows MLP (accuracy = 0.873/precision = 0.85). Regarding the estimated loss function, MLP obtained a 0.29 average loss in the F.S prediction process, which is the lowest rate. The SVM, DT, and RF obtained 0.41, 0.62, and 0.45 losses, respectively. This article tried to fill the gap in traditional analysis procedures based on advanced procedures in slope stability assessments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper evaluates a comparison between three machine learning algorithms (MLAs), namely support vector machine (SVM), multilayer perceptron artificial neural network (MLP-ANN) and random forest (RF), in landslide susceptibility mapping and addresses a optimization algorithm to optimize the performance of a MLA to yield more accurate and reliable results. A genetic algorithm (GA) approach as a part of evolutionary algorithms was utilized in order to optimize the performance of best model among three utilized MLAs. The study area (Tarom–Khalkhal sub-basin) is located in North-West of Iran with mountainous nature (western part of Alborz Mountains), wherein numerous landslide occurrences were recorded. In this case, fifteen predisposing factors, gathered from aerial images and field surveys, were considered to generate the final landslide susceptibility models. The validation procedure was conducted with taking advantage of confusion matrices for different algorithms. Finally, landslide susceptibility maps were generated and evaluated through receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves. RF algorithm showed the best performance; therefore, hybridized genetic random forest (GRF) was employed in order to optimize the hyperparameters (number of trees, number splits and depth) of the model, which can affect the performance of model. As a result, GRF has best performance among all mentioned algorithms with AUC = 0.93. As a conclusion, genetic algorithm was found to be suitable in optimizing the performance of machine learning algorithms, which is crucial when it comes to landslide susceptibility mapping. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to propose a data-driven model to predict credit risks of actors collaborating within a supply chain finance (SCF) network based on the analysis of their network attributes. This can support applying reverse factoring mechanisms in SCFs. Design/methodology/approach: Based on network science, the network measures of the actors collaborating in the investigated SCF are derived through a social network analysis. Then several supervised machine learning algorithms are applied to predict the credit risks of the actors on the basis of their network level and organizational-level characteristics. For this purpose, a data set from an SCF within an automotive industry in Iran is used. Findings: The findings of the research clearly demonstrate that considering the network attributes of the actors within the prediction models can significantly enhance the accuracy and precision of the models. Research limitations/implications: The main limitation of this research is to investigate the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed model within a single case. Practical implications: The proposed model can provide a well-established basis for financial intermediaries in SCFs to make more sophisticated decisions within financial facilitation mechanisms. Originality/value: This study contributes to the existing literature of credit risk evaluation by considering credit risk as a systematic risk that can be influenced by network measures of collaborating actors. To do so, the paper proposes an approach that considers network characteristics of SCFs as critical attributes to predict credit risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recently, the increasing prevalence of solar energy in power and energy systems around the world has dramatically increased the importance of accurately predicting solar irradiance. However, the lack of access to data in many regions and the privacy concerns that can arise when collecting and transmitting data from distributed points to a central server pose challenges to current predictive techniques. This study proposes a global solar radiation forecasting approach based on federated learning (FL) and convolutional neural network (CNN). In addition to maintaining input data privacy, the proposed procedure can also be used as a global supermodel. In this paper, data related to eight regions of Iran with different climatic features are considered as CNN input for network training in each client. To test the effectiveness of the global supermodel, data related to three new regions of Iran named Abadeh, Jarqavieh, and Arak are used. It can be seen that the global forecasting supermodel was able to forecast solar radiation for Abadeh, Jarqavieh, and Arak regions with 95%, 92%, and 90% accuracy coefficients, respectively. Finally, in a comparative scenario, various conventional machine learning and deep learning models are employed to forecast solar radiation in each of the study regions. The results of the above approaches are compared and evaluated with the results of the proposed FL-based method. The results show that, since no training data were available from regions of Abadeh, Jarqavieh, and Arak, the conventional methods were not able to forecast solar radiation in these regions. This evaluation confirms the high ability of the presented FL approach to make acceptable predictions while preserving privacy and eliminating model reliance on training data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The concept of leveraging the predictive capacity of predisposing factors for landslide susceptibility (LS) modeling has been continuously improved in recent work focusing on computational and machine learning algorithms. This paper explores the predictive capacity of different approaches to LS modelling using artificial intelligence. The key objective of this study is to estimate a LS map for the Taleghan-Alamut basin of Iran using Credal Decision Tree (CDT)-based (i.e. CDT-Bagging, CDT-Multiboost and CDT-SubSpace) hybrid machine learning approaches, which are state-of-the-art soft computing approaches that are hardly ever utilized in the assessment of LS. In this study, we used eighteen landslide predisposing factors (LPFs) that we considered to be the most important local morphological and geo-environmental factors influencing the occurrence of landslides. We calculated the significance of each of the LPFs in the landslide susceptibility assessment using the Random Forest Method. We also employed the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve, precision, performance, map robustness measurement and selection of the best-fitting models. The results shows that, compared to the other models, the CDT-Multiboost is the excellent model in this perspective with an average area under curve (AUC) of 0.993 based on a 4-fold cross-validation. We, therefore, consider the CDT-Multiboost models to be an effective method for improving spatial prediction of LS where landslide scarps or bodies are not clearly identified during the preparation of landslide inventory maps. Therefore, it will be helpful for preparing future landslide inventory maps and mitigate landslide damages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Crash severity models play a crucial role in evaluating the influencing factors in the severity of traffic crashes. In this study, Extremely Randomised Tree (ERT) is used as a machine learning technique to analyse the severity of crashes. The crash data in the province of Khorasan Razavi, Iran, for a period of 5 years from 2013 to 2017, is used for crash severity model development. The dataset includes traffic-related variables, vehicle specifications, vehicle movement, land use characteristics, temporal characteristics, and environmental variables. In this paper, Feature Importance Analysis (FIA), Partial Dependence Plots (PDP), and Individual Conditional Expectation (ICE) plots are utilised to analyse and interpret the results. According to the results, the involvement of vulnerable road users such as motorcyclists and pedestrians alongside traffic-related variables are among the most significant variables in crash severity. Results show that the presence of motorcycles can increase the probability of injury crashes by around 30% and almost double the probability of fatal crashes. Analysing the interaction of PDPs shows that driving speeds above 60 km/h in residential areas raises the probability of injury crashes by about 10%. In addition, at speeds higher than 70 km/h, the presence of pedestrians approximately increases the probability of fatal crashes by 6%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, an integrated workflow based on recent geoscience data is presented for assessing the reservoir characterization and structural interpretation of the Burgan formation, a highly productive formation in the Abadan plain, SW Iran. Utilizing newly acquired high-resolution SEM images, we evaluated the pore size, pore distribution, and pore aspect ratio of Burgan formation. The watershed segmentation algorithm is also capable of detecting throats and closed pores. The porosity fractions from SEM images are used for calibration of the porosity log at several well locations in order to perform petrophysical modeling. Due to the complexity of facies behavior in the study area, we utilized supervised Bayesian classifiers using P-wave velocity, density, and facies log data in order to incorporate spatial dependence into the model. The confusing matrix and machine learning metrics including Accuracy (97.01%), Precision (93.88%), F1 Score (94.16%), and False Positive Rate (2.52%), indicate that the classifier has been properly trained at well locations. A reasonable match is evident between the modeled petrophysical parameters and the true (core) porosity and water saturation at the location of the test well. Furthermore, we have demonstrated the validity of assumptions concerning the dominance of extensional structure in the Abadan plain by using interpreted seismic data. The presented workflow can be used to optimize drilling operations and reduce risks in similar geological settings in the studied formation. Highlights: • The vital pore properties have been evaluated using newly obtained SEM images. • Bayesian classification is a reliable classifier for complex facies modeling. • The dominant extensional structure can be observed in the Abadan plain. • The watershed segmentation algorithm can detect closed pores and throats. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By accurate predicting of pipe bursts, it is possible to schedule pipe maintenance, rehabilitation and improve level of services in Water Distribution Networks (WDNs). In recent years, artificial intelligence techniques have been used vastly in pipe burst prediction. These techniques need big input dataset for deep learning but big dataset might not be available in old WDNs. This paper aimed to compare the performance of multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) and regressive convolution neural network with least square support vector regression (RCNN-LSSVR) for predicting of Pipe Burst Rate (PBR) with limited dataset. Pipes age, diameter, depth of installation, length, average and maximum hydraulic pressure are considered as effective parameters of PBR. Data collected from real-case study in Iran include 158 cases for polyethylene and 124 cases for asbestos cement pipes during 2012–2019. The results indicate that RCNN-LSSVR model has a great performance of PBR prediction on limited dataset. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Machine learning approaches are increasingly being employed to forecast the key characteristics of strong ground motions, including the challenging classification of Pulse-Like (PL) ground motions. The PL ground motions are characterized by their impulsive nature and have the potential to cause significant damage to structures. The classification of PL ground motions continues to be a significant challenge due to the absence of consensus on their definition and categorization. This paper investigates the potential benefits of several Machine Learning Classifiers (MLCs) algorithms such as decision tree, random forest, logistic regression, naive Bayes, support vector machine, K-nearest neighbor, ensemble model, and artificial neural network models for predicting PL and Non-Pulse-Like (NPL) ground motions. In this regard, a dataset comprising 200 near-fault ground motions records compiled from active tectonic regions like Taiwan, Turkey, Iran, and Japan, was divided into 2 portions, with 75% used to train the model and the remaining 25% used for testing. Plots of performance metrics, confusion matrix, and receiver operating curve indicate that the ensemble classifier outperforms the other classifier with 86.2% accuracy and the lowest misclassification of PL and NPL ground motions. Additionally, the trained MLC has been compared with the existing ground motion classification models to further assess the accuracy of the different classifiers in the present study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prediction of geochemical concentration values is essential in mineral exploration as it plays a principal role in the economic section. In this paper, four regression machine learning (ML) algorithms, such as K neighbor regressor (KNN), support vector regressor (SVR), gradient boosting regressor (GBR), and random forest regressor (RFR), have been trained to build our proposed hybrid ML (HML) model. Three metric measurements, including the correlation coefficient, mean absolute error (MAE), and means squared error (MSE), have been selected for model prediction performance. The final prediction of Pb and Zn grades is achieved using the HML model as they outperformed other algorithms by inheriting the advantages of individual regression models. Although the introduced regression algorithms can solve problems as single, non-complex, and robust regression models, the hybrid techniques can be used for the ore grade estimation with better performance. The required data are gathered from in situ soil. The objective of the recent study is to use the ML model's prediction to classify Pb and Zn anomalies by concentration-area fractal modeling in the study area. Based on this fractal model results, there are five geochemical populations for both cases. These elements' main anomalous regions were correlated with mining activities and core drilling data. The results indicate that our method is promising for predicting the ore elemental distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cardiovascular diseases belong to the leading causes of disability and premature death worldwide, including in Iran. It is predicted that the burden of the disease in Iran in 2025 will be more than doubled compared to 2005. Therefore, many forecasting models have been used to predict disease progression, estimate mortality rates, and assess risk factors. Our study focused on two time series prediction on models: autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous variable (ARIMAX) and Convolutional neural network–long short-term memory network (CNN-LSTM). ARIMAX (6,1,6) had the best MSE of 0.655 among time series regression models. The prediction of this model shows a significant association in lag 4 and lag 6. Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) was also significant in lag 6, while CNN-LSTM had a much better MSE of 0.21. For the time series analysis and forecasts studied in this paper, deep learning models provided more accurate results than classical methods such as ARIMAX. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the application of two machine learning methods to model precipitable water vapor (PWV) using observations of 23 GPS stations from the local GPS network of north-west of Iran in 2011. In a first step, the zenith tropospheric delay (ZTD) and zenith hydrostatic delay (ZHD) is calculated with the Bernese GNSS software and Saastamoinen model as revised by Davis, respectively. Then, by subtracting the ZHD from the ZTD, the zenith wet delay (ZWD) is obtained at each GPS station, for all times. In a second step, ZWD is modeled by two different machine learning methods, based on the latitude, longitude, DOY, time, relative humidity, temperature and pressure. After training a Support Vector Machine (SVM) and an Artificial Neural Network (ANN), ZWD temporal and spatial variations are estimated. Using the formula by Bevis, the ZWD can be converted to PWV at any time and space, for each machine learning method. The accuracy of the two new models is evaluated using control stations, exterior and radiosonde station, whose observations were not used in the training step. Also, all the results of the SVM and ANN are compared with a voxel-based tomography (VBT) model. In the control and exterior stations, ZWD estimated by the SVM (ZWD SVM) and ANN (ZWD ANN) is compared with the ZWD obtained from the GPS (ZWD GPS). Also, in the control and exterior stations, precise point positioning (PPP) is used to evaluate the accuracy of the new models. In the radiosonde station, the PWV of the new models (PWV SVM , PWV ANN) is compared with the radiosonde PWV (PWV radiosonde) and voxel-based PWV (PWV VBT). The averaged relative error of the SVM, ANN and VBT models in the control stations is 10.50%, 12.71% and 12.91%, respectively. For SVM, ANN and VBT models, the averaged RMSE at the control stations is 1.87 (mm), 2.22 (mm) and 2.29 (mm), respectively. Analysis of the results of PWV estimated by the SVM, ANN and VBT, as well as the surface precipitation obtained from meteorological stations, indicate the high accuracy of the SVM in comparison with the ANN and VBT model. In the results shown in this paper, the SVM has the best ability to accurately estimate ZWD and PWV, using local GPS network observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we propose a three-step approach to predict permeability. First, by using Electrofacies Analysis (EA), data are classified into several clusters. We take advantage of EA to overcome abrupt changes of permeability which its unpredictability prevents a machine to be learned. EA is also helpful for wells that suffer from core data. Second, fuzzy membership functions are applied on data points in each Electrofacies Log (EL). Third, Support Vector Regression (SVR) is employed to predict permeability using fuzzy clustered data for areas with core missing data. To perform this process, we applied the proposed technique on four well sets of a gas field located in South of Iran; three wells devoted to training and the fourth remained for testing operation. Seven ELs derived using Multi Regression Graph-Based Clustering (MRGC) method. MRGC is able to estimate more appropriate number of clusters without prior knowledge compared to other three algorithms for our case-study area. Then, fuzzy membership functions applied to data. Thereafter, SVR applied to both fuzzy and not-fuzzy ELs. Consequently, the predicted permeability log for both fuzzy and not-fuzzy inputs correlated to real permeability (core data obtained from plugs in laboratory) in the test well. Finally, predicted permeability for each face merged together to make an estimated permeability for the whole test well. The results show that predicted permeability obtained from application of SVR on fuzzy data (FSVR) has a notably better correlation with core data for both clusters individually and the whole data compared to SVR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a frequent natural disaster, landslides incur significant economic and human losses worldwide. The main idea of this paper is to propose novel integrative models for landslide susceptibility evaluation in a prone area of Chaharmahal va Bakhtiari Province in Iran. To do this, four metaheuristic techniques, namely chimp optimization algorithm (ChOA), crow search algorithm (CSA), satin bowerbird optimization (SBO), and water cycle algorithm (WCA) are used to supervise the training of an artificial neural network (ANN). A spatial database is created by 170 historical landslides and 14 most common conditioning factors. The models are optimized in terms of hyper-parameters and elite ones are then used to produce the susceptibility maps. During the training phase, all models could acquire a reliable understanding of the landslide pattern. The obtained accuracy index of area under the receiving operating characteristic curve (AUROC) showed that the maps produced by the WCA-ANN (AUROC = 0.925) and SBO-ANN (AUROC = 0.900) are more accurate than those of the ChOA-ANN (AUROC = 0.851) and CSA-ANN (AUROC = 0.855). Considering this assessment, the suggested hybrid models are reliable enough for landslide susceptibility modeling. Accordingly, the generated susceptibility map can be used for urban planning and generating alert systems over the studied area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia (ALL) is the most common blood disease in children and is responsible for the most deaths amongst children. Due to major improvements in the treatment protocols in the 50-years period, the survivability of this disease has witnessed dramatic rise until this date which is about 90 percent. There are many investigations tending to indicate the efficiency of cranial radiotherapy found out that without that, outcome of the patients did not change and even it improved at some cases., Methods: the main aim of this study is predicting cranial radiotherapy treatment in pediatric acute lymphoblastic leukemia patients using machine learning. Scope of this paper is intertwined with predicting the necessity of one of the treatment modalities that has been used for many years for this group of patients named Cranial Radiotherapy (CRT). For this purpose, a case study is considered at Mahak charity hospital. In this paper, our focus is on ALL patients aged 0 to 17 treated at Mahak hospital, one of the best centers for treatment of childhood malignancies in Iran. Dataset analyzed in this study is gathered by the research team from patient's paper-based files. Our dataset consists of 241 observations on patients with 31 attributes after the data cleaning process. Our designed machine learning model for predicting cranial radiotherapy treatment in pediatric acute lymphoblastic leukemia patients is a stacked ensemble classifier of independently strong models with a meta-learner to tune the weights and parameters of the base classifiers., Results: The stacked ensemble classifier show highly reasonable performance with AUC of 87.52%. Moreover, the attributes are ranked based on their predictive power and the most important variable for CRT necessity prediction is the disease relapse., Conclusion: In order to conclude, derived from previous studies regarding CRT it is not only cost-effective but also more healthy to eradicate the use of CRT for the treatment of childhood ALL. Furthermore, it is valuable to increase the clinical databases by creating more synthetic health databases not only for research purposes but also for physicians to keep track of their patient's status.   , .

An extended drought period with low precipitation can result in low water availability and issues for humans, animals, and plants. Drought forecasting is critical for water resource development and management as it helps to reduce negative consequences. In this study, scientometric analysis and manual comprehensive analysis on drought modelling and forecasting are used. A scientometric analysis is used to determine the current research trend using bibliometric data and to identify relevant publication field sources with the most publications, the most frequently used keywords, the most cited articles and authors, and the countries that have made the greatest contributions to the field of water resources. This paper also tries to provide an overview of water issues, such as drought classification, drought indices, historical droughts, and their impact on Asian countries such as China, Pakistan, India, and Iran. There have been many models established for this purpose and choosing the appropriate model for study is a long procedure for researchers. An appropriate, comprehensive, pedagogical study of model ideas and historical implementations would benefit researchers by helping them to avoid overlooking viable model options, thus reducing their time spent on the topic. As a result, the goal of this paper is to review drought-forecasting approaches and recommend the best models for the Asian region. The models are divided into four categories based on their mechanisms: Regression analysis, stochastic modelling, machine learning, and dynamic modelling. The basic concepts of each approach in terms of the model's historical use, benefits, and limitations are explained. Finally, prospects for future drought research in Asia are discussed as well as potential modelling techniques. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As one of the most critical points of Iran, Lake Urmia has always been subjected to ecosystem changes due to severe water level drops. Many basins serve to feed the lake, e.g. the Shaharchay River basin, located west of the lake. In this paper, a new learning machine named "Weighted Regularization Extreme Learning Machine (WRELM)" is integrated with the Wavelet Transform (WT) (W-WRELM) to predict runoff-precipitation amounts of the Shaharchay River basin within an 18 year period from 2000 to 2017. Using the autocorrelation function, lags affecting runoff-precipitation time series are detected, then seven models are developed for both WRELM and W-ERELM by the mentioned lags. After that, all mother wavelets are testes and the best member of their family is identified. Also, the best models for the simulation of precipitation and runoff amounts are introduced through a sensitivity analysis. These models forecast target function values with acceptable exactness and high correlation. For example, the determination coefficient (R2) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) for the best model of W-WRELM for the estimation of precipitation amounts are obtained to be 0.962 and 0.128, respectively. Moreover, the variance accounted for (VAF) and Scatter Index (SI) for the approximation of rainfall amounts are computed to 0.919 and 0.236, separately. Analyses showed that more than half of the precipitation amounts predicted by the W-WRELM 7 model have an error of more than 10%, but this value is about 64% for the predicted runoff. The lags (t-1), (t-2) and (t-12) are detected as the influencing lags in the simulation of the precipitation amounts of the Shaharchay River basin. Furthermore, the error and uncertainty analyses are conducted on the best models and it is concluded that the performance of W-WRELM in the prediction of precipitation amounts is underestimated, while its performance in the estimation of runoff values is overestimated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, as a result of climate change as well as rainfall reduction in arid and semi‐arid regions, modelling qualitative and quantitative parameters belonging to aquifers has become crucially important. In Iran, as aquifers are treated as the most commonly used drinking water resources, modelling their qualitative and quantitative parameters is enormously important. In this paper, for the first time, values of salinity, total dissolved solids (TDS), groundwater level (GWL) and electrical conductivity (EC) of the Arak Plain, located in Markazi Province, Iran, are simulated by means of four modern artificial intelligence models including extreme learning machine (ELM), wavelet extreme learning machine (WELM), online sequential extreme learning machine (OSELM) and wavelet online sequential extreme learning machine (WOSELM) as well as the MODFLOW software for a 15‐year period monthly. To develop the hybrid artificial intelligence models, the wavelet is employed. First, the effective lags in estimating the qualitative and quantitative parameters of the groundwater are identified using the autocorrelation function (ACF) and the partial autocorrelation function (PACF) analysis. After that, four different models are developed by the selected input combinations and also the ACF and the PACF in the form of different lags for each of ELM, WAELM, OSELM and WOSELM methods. Then, the superior models in simulating the groundwater qualitative and qualitative parameters are detected by conducting a sensitivity analysis. To forecast the electrical conductivity (EC) by the best WOSELM model, the values of the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSC), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and the scatter index (SI) are obtained to be 0.991, 18.005 and 4.28E‐03, respectively. In addition, the most effective lags in estimating these parameters are introduced. Subsequently, the results found by the MODFLOW model are compared with those of the artificial intelligence models and it is concluded that the latter are more accurate. For instance, the scatter index and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient values calculated by WOSELM for TDS, respectively, are 5.34E‐03 and 0.991. Finally, an uncertainty analysis is conducted to evaluate the performance of different numerical models. For example, MODFLOW has an underestimated performance in simulating the salinity parameter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pilot-scale enhanced oil recovery in hydrocarbon field development is often implemented to reduce investment risk due to geological uncertainties. Selection of the pilot area is important, since the result will be extended to the full field. The main challenge in choosing a pilot region is the absence of a systematic and quantitative method. In this paper, we present a novel quantitative and systematic method composed of reservoir-geology and operational-economic criteria where a cluster analysis is utilized as an unsupervised machine learning method. A field of study will be subdivided into pilot candidate areas, and the optimized pilot size is calculated using the economic objective function. Subsequently, the corresponding Covariance (COV) matrix is computed for the simulated 3-D reservoir quality maps in the areas. The areas are optimally clustered to select the dominant cluster. The operational-economic criteria could be applied for decision making as well as the proximity of each area to the center of dominant cluster as a geological-reservoir criterion. Ultimately, the Shannon entropy weighting and the reference ideal method are applied to compute the pilot opportunity index in each area. The proposed method was employed for a pilot study on an oil field in south west Iran. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The most common index for representing structural condition of the pavement is the structural number. The current procedure for determining structural numbers involves utilizing falling weight deflectometer and ground-penetrating radar tests, recording pavement surface deflections, and analyzing recorded deflections by back-calculation manners. This procedure has two drawbacks: falling weight deflectometer and ground-penetrating radar are expensive tests; back-calculation ways has some inherent shortcomings compared to exact methods as they adopt a trial and error approach. In this study, three machine learning methods entitled Gaussian process regression, M5P model tree, and random forest used for the prediction of structural numbers in flexible pavements. Dataset of this paper is related to 759 flexible pavement sections at Semnan and Khuzestan provinces in Iran and includes "structural number" as output and "surface deflections and surface temperature" as inputs. The accuracy of results was examined based on three criteria of R, MAE, and RMSE. Among the methods employed in this paper, random forest is the most accurate as it yields the best values for above criteria (R = 0.841, MAE = 0.592, and RMSE = 0.760). The proposed method does not require to use ground penetrating radar test, which in turn reduce costs and work difficulty. Using machine learning methods instead of back-calculation improves the calculation process quality and accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to apply and compare the performance of the three machine learning algorithms–support vector machine (SVM), bayesian logistic regression (BLR), and alternating decision tree (ADTree)–to map landslide susceptibility along the mountainous road of the Salavat Abad saddle, Kurdistan province, Iran. We identified 66 shallow landslide locations, based on field surveys, by recording the locations of the landslides by a global position System (GPS), Google Earth imagery and black-and-white aerial photographs (scale 1: 20,000) and 19 landslide conditioning factors, then tested these factors using the information gain ratio (IGR) technique. We checked the validity of the models using statistical metrics, including sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, kappa, root mean square error (RMSE), and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). We found that, although all three machine learning algorithms yielded excellent performance, the SVM algorithm (AUC = 0.984) slightly outperformed the BLR (AUC = 0.980), and ADTree (AUC = 0.977) algorithms. We observed that not only all three algorithms are useful and effective tools for identifying shallow landslide-prone areas but also the BLR algorithm can be used such as the SVM algorithm as a soft computing benchmark algorithm to check the performance of the models in future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Estimating the uniaxial compressive strength (UCS) of travertine rocks with an indirect modeling approach and machine learning algorithms is useful as models can reduce the cost and time required to obtain accurate measurements of UCS, which is important for the prediction of rock failure. This approach can also address the limitations encountered in preparing detailed measured samples using direct measurements. The current paper developed and compared the performance of three standalone tree-based machine learning models (random forest (RF), M5 model tree, and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS)) for the prediction of UCS in travertine rocks from the Azarshahr area of northwestern Iran. Additionally, an ensemble committee-based artificial neural network (ANN) model was developed to integrate the advantages of the three standalone models and obtain further accuracy in UCS prediction. To date, an ensemble approach for estimating UCS has not been explored. To construct and validate the models, a set of rock test data including p-wave velocity (Vp (Km/s)), Schmidt Hammer (Rn), porosity (n%), point load index (Is (MPa)), and UCS (MPa) were acquired from 93 travertine core samples. To develop the ensemble tree-based machine learning model, the input matrix representing Vp, Rn, n%, and Is data with the corresponding target variable (i.e., UCS) was incorporated with a ratio of 70:15:15 (train: validate: test). Results indicated that a standalone MARS model outperformed all other standalone tree-based models in predicting UCS. The ANN-committee model, however, obtained the best performance with an r-value of approximately 0.890, an RMSE of 3.980 MPa, an MAE of 3.225 MPa, a WI of 0.931, and an LMI of 0.537, demonstrating the improved accuracy of the ensemble model for the prediction of UCS relative to the standalone models. The results suggest that the proposed ensemble committee-based model is a useful approach for predicting the UCS of travertine rocks with a limited set of model-designed datasets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the capabilities of demotic unsupervised learning approaches were investigated to improve the procedure of geochemical anomaly identification. The separation of anomalous concentrations from the background is a crucial task in the mathematical analysis of geochemical data. The conventional methods rely on the statistical thresholds routinely; however, determining such boundary values fundamentally entails a normally distributed data and the involvement of expert knowledge. The unsupervised machine learning provides state-of-the-art facilities based on the information theory that leveraged to classify the geochemical data into the anomaly and background concentrations with specific characteristics. To examine the integrity of performance of geochemical data processing tools, the prevalent unsupervised learning methods of k-means, k-medoids, k-medians, expectation-maximization (EM) clustering, density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN), and self-organizing maps (SOM), as well as traditional threshold-based techniques of the mean plus two standard deviations () and the concentration-number (C-N) fractal model were subjected to the separation of Cu anomalies from the background within 300 rock samples collected from Shadan porphyry copper deposit, northeast Iran. The efficiency of methods was quantitatively measured using criteria comprising student's t-test, signal to noise ratio, and the pooled coefficient of variation. The appraisal criteria have confirmed that most of the unsupervised techniques manage to isolate the geochemical anomalies from the background with a more significant contrast compared to the conventional methods of and C-N fractal model. The EM clustering has revealed the best performance among them so that it allocates the anomalies with the maximum resolution and distinguishes the weak anomalies from the high background. The anomaly Cu map obtained by the EM method has represented a significant spatial pattern that is properly consistent with the geological and mineralization evidences within the study area. The utilization of unsupervised learning methods substantially enjoys some advantages such as anomaly intensification, automaticity, being fast and non-parametric, and the capability to expand to the multivariate analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gully erosion destroys agricultural and domestic grazing land in many countries, especially those with arid and semi-arid climates and easily eroded rocks and soils. It also generates large amounts of sediment that can adversely impact downstream river channels. The main objective of this research is to accurately detect and predict areas prone to gully erosion. In this paper, we couple hybrid models of a commonly used base classifier (reduced pruning error tree, REPTree) with AdaBoost (AB), bagging (Bag), and random subspace (RS) algorithms to create gully erosion susceptibility maps for a sub-basin of the Shoor River watershed in northwestern Iran. We compare the performance of these models in terms of their ability to predict gully erosion and discuss their potential use in other arid and semi-arid areas. Our database comprises 242 gully erosion locations, which we randomly divided into training and testing sets with a ratio of 70/30. Based on expert knowledge and analysis of aerial photographs and satellite images, we selected 12 conditioning factors for gully erosion. We used multi-collinearity statistical techniques in the modeling process, and checked model performance using statistical indexes including precision, recall, F-measure, Matthew correlation coefficient (MCC), receiver operatic characteristic curve (ROC), precision–recall graph (PRC), Kappa, root mean square error (RMSE), relative absolute error (PRSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and relative absolute error (RAE). Results show that rainfall, elevation, and river density are the most important factors for gully erosion susceptibility mapping in the study area. All three hybrid models that we tested significantly enhanced and improved the predictive power of REPTree (AUC=0.800), but the RS-REPTree (AUC= 0.860) ensemble model outperformed the Bag-REPTree (AUC= 0.841) and the AB-REPTree (AUC= 0.805) models. We suggest that decision makers, planners, and environmental engineers employ the RS-REPTree hybrid model to better manage gully erosion-prone areas in Iran. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By considering the increasing trend in water consumption and significant reduction of water resources in most countries of the world, groundwater resources have become very important. The Target of this study is to implement machine learning models to produce a groundwater potential map (GWPM), identify areas with higher water potential, and also identify influencing factors. Therefore, two algorithms including the random forest (RF) and support vector regression (SVR), were performed that according to the literature have a good compatibility with this type of problems, compared to the other models. Of the 351 well points available throughout the study area, 70% (245 well points) were selected as the target for training the models and the rest 30% (106 well points) were used for evaluating the models. In addition, 20 effective information layers were used for modeling. In this study, an effort was made to focus more on data preparation that is one of the most important parts of model development. The variance inflation factor (VIF) and correlation coefficient were applied to identify the dependent variables. Also, feature selection was done to identify the most influential factors. Finally, two groundwater potential map(GWPM)s were created based on these two models. By calculating the area under the curve (AUC) from the receiver operating characteristic (ROC), the prediction accuracy of the two models was calculated. The values for AUC of the two maps produced by the RF and SVR algorithms were 93.4% and 89.7%, respectively. This study improves the knowledge of groundwater potential in the study area which is one of the cities with water scarcity in the country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Classification is an essential step for architectural historians for better understanding and typology of cultural heritage. This research aims to automatically cluster geometric ornaments of the Ilkhanid period in Iran through using machine learning It examines the application of advanced computer science tools and methods in analysis of architectural heritage by searching the possibility of clustering ornament images with machine learning into different clusters. After examining case studies of mosques, tombs or other buildings in Iran from the Ilkhanid period (1256–1335 CE), 231 images from 36 existing buildings were chosen, and after editing images, an inventory was created based on characterization of each ornament (image) containing: Buildings' Name, Region, Construction Date, Functionality, Repetition of Motifs, Material, Ornamental Types, Design Complexity, Dominant Colour, Star-Number, Geometric Shape, Geometric Lines, and Geometric Pieces. Next, these images were analysed with small-scale machine learning with the help of the visual programming toolbox Orange (http://orange.biolab.si). The results containing image groups (machine clustered images) were tested with the characterization table of ornaments, and groups of ornaments that represents a style is introduced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil moisture content plays a pivotal role in biomass development of vegetation coverage at various growth stages. Moisture content of the soil is considered as a crucial parameter for agricultural studies which directly leads to higher fertility rate. Remote sensing techniques, specifically Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) sensors, provides suitable opportunity for continuous soil moisture monitoring at various spatial and temporal resolutions. In this study, field campaigns conducted to measure soil surface parameters, including soil moisture and roughness, synchronized with Sentinel-1 pass over an agricultural region near Mohammadshahr, Iran. Fieldwork for soil moisture sampling have done during plants' (canola and winter wheat) growth stages. The Gradient Boosted Regression Tree (GBRT), eXtreme Gradient Boosted (XGB), and Random Forest (RF) machine learning algorithms were employed to model the relationship between the ground measured soil moisture and polarimetric SAR derived features from Sentinel-1 imageries. The results showed promising results obtained for soil moisture estimation using the dual-polarized SAR dataset over crop-covered agricultural fields with R2 = 0.95 and RMSE = 0.023 m3 m−3 using the GBRT regression model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water balance estimation in arid and semi-arid areas is highly essential for water and irrigation management. In arid regions, around ninety percent of the rainfall that reaches the surface of earth is returned to the atmosphere by evaporation and transpiration process. Evapotranspiration (ET) estimation has been drastically improved by the help of cutting-edge technology of Remote Sensing (RS) and Machine Learning (ML) techniques. Satellite RS approaches can be advantageous in monitoring land surface processes over vast areas and different approaches have been advanced for assessing ET from moderate to low resolutions with the help of remotely-sensed data. This research demonstrated a MODIS 8-day (500m) ET downscaling technique in Moghan plain based on Landsat-8 indices (30m) and Random Forest Regression (RFR), Support Vector Regression (SVR) models. The outcome of this research showed that SVR outperformed RFR for both days. In SVR model, the accuracy assessment indices on the first and second days are respectively: RMSE= 9.28 and 8.65, rRSME= 27.85 and 63.71, MAE= 5.71 and 3.97. This study has illustrated the possibility of implementing ML methods for downscaling MODIS ET product considering their efficacy and relatively ease of execution. Nevertheless, our research has identified that the MODIS ET accuracy is the primary reason of the accuracy of the downscaled ET. Future research can investigate the utility of spatial-temporal fusion models with remotely-sensed data to ultimately improve the spatio-temporal resolution of downscaled ET maps. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Monitoring and mapping eroded lands by gully erosion is an essential step to control gully networks. Advances in remote sensing and aerial photography have enabled users to capture data with variant temporal and spatial resolution that is needed in different fields. In addition, introducing different types of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) enabled to carry imaging payload. The orthophoto and digital elevation model (DTM) produced from aerial images taken by Aeria-X camera mounted on Sensefly eBee-X drone was employed to identify and map eroded areas by gully in Kajoo-Gargaroo watershed in Chabahar, south-eastern part of Iran. Digitizing gully boarders manually is a tiring and time-consuming process for the operators. Maximum likelihood algorithm as one of the machine learning algorithm was also used to classify orthophoto in order to extract gully borders in the study area. In this study a new algorithm based on analysing geometric features and clustering of the DTM was used to map gullies automatically. The results of the proposed method and machine learning algorithm were compared with the manually digitized gully map. Quantitative evaluation demonstrates that our proposed method reaches better overall accuracy compared to machine learning algorithm with the increase of 7.2 percent in overall accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• YOLOv8 enables intelligent stereo vision for blast-induced fragmentation analysis. • AI and computer vision automate and enhance fragmentation assessment. • Blender & real explosion datasets ensure accurate results. • High accuracy & effective segmentation validate the method. • Reducing manual interventions and enhancing mining efficiency. Rock fragmentation assessment is a critical aspect of evaluating blasting operations in the mining industry, offering insights for optimising procedures and subsequent mining processes. Traditional methods, such as sieving, while accurate, are costly and time-consuming. Digital image analysis methods have emerged as alternatives, yet they face challenges in accurately handling fragments of varying sizes. Recent advancements in computer vision, particularly deep learning techniques, offer promising solutions to automate and refine fragmentation analysis. This paper introduces a novel intelligent stereo vision approach utilising YOLOv8, an advanced deep learning model, for blast-induced fragmentation size distribution assessment at the Golgohar open-pit mine in Iran. By training YOLOv8 with an automated self-labelled dataset and evaluating its performance against real mine site data, this research aims to enhance the accuracy and efficiency of blast fragmentation analysis. The proposed method leverages stereo images and machine learning to provide precise measurements, leading to improved optimisation of blasting parameters and potential economic benefits compared to traditional methods. Through rigorous validation processes and case studies across diverse scenarios, the proposed approach demonstrates robustness and reliability in assessing blast fragmentation, offering a practical and efficient solution for the mining industry's evolving needs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) techniques have recently shown encouraging performance in recognizing metal-vectoring geochemical anomalies within complex Earth systems. However, the generalization of these techniques to detect subtle anomalies may be precluded due to overlooking non-stationary spatial structures and intra-pattern local dependencies contained in geochemical exploration data. Motivated by this, we conceptualize in this paper an innovative algorithm connecting a DL architecture to a spatial ML processor to account for local neighborhood information and spatial non-stationarities in support of spatially aware anomaly detection. A deep autoencoder network (DAN) is trained to abstract deep feature codings (DFCs) of multi-element input data. The encoded DFCs represent the typical performance of a nonlinear Earth system, i.e., multi-element signatures of geochemical background populations developed by different geo-processes. A local version of the random forest algorithm, geographical random forest (GRF), is then connected to the input and code layers of the DAN processor to establish nonlinear and spatially aware regressions between original geochemical signals (dependent variables) and DFCs (independent variables). After contributions of the latter on the former are determined, residuals of GRF regressions are quantified and interpreted as spatially aware anomaly scores related to mineralization. The proposed algorithm (i.e., DAN‒GRF) is implemented in the R language environment and examined in a case study with stream sediment geochemical data pertaining to the Takht-e-Soleyman district, Iran. The high-scored anomalies mapped by DAN‒GRF, compared to those by the stand-alone DAN technique, indicated a stronger spatial correlation with locations of known metal occurrences, which was statistically confirmed by success-rate curves, Student's t ‒statistic method, and prediction-area plots. The findings suggested that the proposed algorithm has an enhanced capability to recognize subtle multi-element geochemical anomalies and extract reliable insights into metal exploration targeting. [Display omitted] • A hybrid algorithm to recognize metal-vectoring geochemical anomaly patterns. • A deep autoencoder network to learn deep feature codings of multi-element input data. • A geographical random forest regression to quantify spatially aware anomaly scores. • A comparative experiment on a case study from Takht-e-Soleyman district, Iran. • Success-rate curves, Student's t ‒statistic, and prediction-area plots for performance evaluation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Psychopathology research mainly focused on the cross-sectional and longitudinal associations between personality and psychiatric disorders without considering the moment-to-moment dynamics of personality in response to environmental situations. The present study aimed to both cluster a young sample according to three mixed clinical conditions (poor sleep quality, depression, and somatization) and to predict the derived clusters by maladaptive personality traits and sex differences using a deep machine learning approach. Methods: A sample of 839 adults aged 18-40 years (64% female) from the west of Iran were clustered according to the mixed clinical conditions using the cluster analysis techniques. An Artificial Neural Network (ANN) modeling is used to predict the derived clusters by maladaptive personality traits and biological gender. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to identify independent variables with high sensitivity specific to the derived clusters. Results: The cluster analysis techniques suggested a fully stable and acceptable four-cluster solution for Depressed Poor Sleepers, Nonclinical Good Sleepers, Subclinical Poor Sleepers, and Clinical Poor Sleepers. The ANN model led to the identification of one hidden layer with two hidden units. The results of Area under the ROC Curve were relatively to completely acceptable, ranging from.726 to.855. Anhedonia, perceptual dysregulation, depressivity, anxiousness, and unusual beliefs are the most valuable traits with importance higher than 70%. Conclusion: The machine learning approach can be well used to predict mixed clinical conditions by maladaptive personality traits. Future research can test the complexity of normal personality traits connected to mixed clinical conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the effectiveness of various quantile regression (QR) and machine learning (ML) methodologies developed for analyzing the relationship between meteorological parameters and daily reference evapotranspiration (ETref) across diverse climates in Iran spanning from 1987 to 2022. The analyzed models include D-vine copula-based quantile regression (DVQR), multivariate linear quantile regression (MLQR), Bayesian model averaging quantile regression (BMAQR), as well as machine learning algorithms such as extreme learning machine (ELM), random forest (RF), M5 model Tree (M5Tree), least squares support vector regression algorithm (LSSVR), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost). Additionally, empirical equations (EEs) such as Baier and Robertson (BARO), Jensen and Haise (JEHA), and Penman (PENM) models were considered. While the EEs demonstrated acceptable performance, the QR and ML models exhibited superior accuracy. Among these, the MLQR model displayed the highest accuracy compared to DVQR and BMAQR models. Moreover, LSSVR, XGBoost, and M5Tree models outperformed ELM and RF models. Notably, LSSVR, XGBoost, and MLQR models exhibited comparable performance (R2 and NSE > 0.92, MBE and RMSE < 0.5, and SI > 0.05) to M5Tree and BMAQR models across all climates. Importantly, these models significantly outperformed EEs, DVQR, ELM, and RF models in all climates. In conclusion, high-dimensional QR and ML models are recommended as promising alternatives for accurately estimating daily ETref in diverse global climate conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]