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In a competitive electricity market, price forecasts are important for market participants. However, electricity price is a complex signal due to its nonlinearity, nonstationarity, and time variant behavior. In spite of much research in this area, more accurate and robust price forecast methods are still required. In this paper, a combination of a feature selection technique and cascaded neuro-evolutionary algorithm (CNEA) is proposed for this purpose. The feature selection method is an improved version of the mutual information (MI) technique. The CNEA is composed of cascaded forecasters where each forecaster consists of a neural network (NN) and an evolutionary algorithm (EA). An iterative search procedure is also incorporated in our solution strategy to fine-tune the adjustable parameters of both the MI technique and CNEA. The price forecast accuracy of the proposed method is evaluated by means of real data from the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM) and Spanish electricity markets. The method is also compared with some of the most recent price forecast techniques. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper addresses the problem of predicting hourly load demand using adaptive artificial neural networks (ANNs). A particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is employed to adjust the network's weights in the training phase of the ANNs. The advantage of using a PSO algorithm over other conventional training algorithms such as the back-propagation (BP) is that potential solutions will be flown through the problem hyperspace with accelerated movement towards the best solution. Thus the training phase should result in obtaining the weights configuration associated with the minimum output error. Data are wavelet transformed during the preprocessing stage and then inserted into the neural network to extract redundant information from the load curve. This results in better load characterization which creates a more reliable forecasting model. The transformed data of historical load and weather information were trained and tested over various periods of time. The generalized error estimation is done by using the reverse part of the data as a "test" set. The results were compared with traditional BP algorithm and offered a high forecasting precision. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agent-based modeling and simulation are a valuable research tools for the analysis of dynamic and emergent phenomena of large-scale complex sociotechnical systems. The dynamic behavior of such systems includes both the individual behavior of heterogeneous agents within the system and the emergent behavior arising from interactions between agents; both must be accurately modeled and efficiently executed in simulations. This paper provides a timing and prediction mechanism for the accurate modeling of interactions among agents, correspondingly increasing the computational efficiency of agent-based simulations. A method for assessing the accuracy of interaction prediction methods is described based on signal detection theory. An intelligent interaction timing agent framework that uses a neural network to predict the timing of interactions between heterogeneous agents is presented; this framework dramatically improves the accuracy of interaction timing without requiring detailed scenario-specific modeling efforts for each simulation configuration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we present two versions of a hardware processing architecture for modeling large networks of leaky-integrate-and-fire (LIF) neurons; the second version provides performance enhancing features relative to the first. Both versions of the architecture use fixed-point arithmetic and have been implemented using a single field-programmable gate array (FPGA). They have successfully simulated networks of over 1000 neurons configured using biologically plausible models of mammalian neural systems. The neuroprocessor has been designed to be employed primarily for use on mobile robotic vehicles, allowing bio-inspired neural processing models to be integrated directly into real-world control environments. When a neuroprocessor has been designed to act as part of the closed-loop system of a feedback controller, it is imperative to maintain strict real-time performance at all times, in order to maintain integrity of the control system. This resulted in the reevaluation of some of the architectural features of existing hardware for biologically plausible neural networks (NNs). In addition, we describe a development system for rapidly porting an underlying model (based on floating-point arithmetic) to the fixed-point representation of the FPGA-based neuroprocessor, thereby allowing validation of the hardware architecture. The developmental system environment facilitates the cooperation of computational neuroscientists and engineers working on embodied (robotic) systems with neural controllers, as demonstrated by our own experience on the Whiskerbot project, in which we developed models of the rodent whisker sensory system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes the development and implementation of a tool for the diagnosis of faults in power transformers through the analysis of dissolved gases in oil. The computational system approach is based on the combined use of some traditional criteria of the dissolved gas analysis published in standards, an artificial neural network, and a fuzzy logic system. The objective of the tool is to provide the user with an answer obtained from analysis not only of the traditional methods already consolidated in the technical literature, but also via artificial-intelligence techniques, reaching a higher degree of reliability with respect to each technique individually. The results obtained with this tool are promising in the diagnosis of incipient faults in transformers, reaching success levels of more than 80%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nonnegative and compartmental dynamical system models are derived from mass and energy balance considerations that involve dynamic states whose values are nonnegative. These models are widespread in engineering and life sciences and typically involve the exchange of nonnegative quantities between subsystems or compartments wherein each compartment is assumed to be kinetically homogeneous. In this paper, we develop a full-state feedback neural adaptive control framework for adaptive set-point regulation of nonlinear uncertain nonnegative and compartmental systems. The proposed framework is Lyapunov-based and guarantees ultimate boundedness of the error signals corresponding to the physical system states and the neural network weighting gains. In addition, the neural adaptive controller guarantees that the physical system states remain in the nonnegative orthant of the state-space for nonnegative initial conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]