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Abstract: A prerequisite to an air quality management plan for a city is some idea of the main sources of pollution and their contributions for a city. This paper presents the results of an application of the SIM-air modeling tool in six Indian cities – Pune, Chennai, Indore, Ahmedabad, Surat, and Rajkot. Using existing and publicly available data, we put together a baseline of multi-pollutant emissions for each of the cities and then calculate concentrations, health impacts, and model alternative scenarios for 2020. The measured annual PM10 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter less than 10 micron meter) concentrations in μg m−3 averaged 94.7 ± 45.4 in Pune, 73.1 ± 33.7 in Chennai, 118.8 ± 44.3 in Indore, 94.0 ± 20.4 in Ahmedabad, 89.4 ± 12.1 in Surat, and 105.0 ± 25.6 in Rajkot, all exceeding the annual standard of 60 μg m−3. The PM10 inventory in tons/year for the year 2010 of 38,400 in Pune, 50,200 in Chennai, 18,600 in Indore, 31,900 in Ahmedabad, 20,000 in Surat, and 14,000 in Rajkot, is further spatially segregated into 1 km grids and includes all known sources such as transport, road dust, residential, power plants, industries (including the brick kilns), waste burning, and diesel generator sets. We use the ATMoS chemical transport model to validate the emissions inventory and estimate an annual premature mortality due to particulate pollution of 15,200 for the year 2010 for the six cities. Of the estimated 21,400 premature deaths in the six cities in 2020, we estimate that implementation of the six interventions in the transport and brick kiln sectors, can potentially save 5870 lives (27%) annually and result in an annual reduction of 16.8 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions in the six cities. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper examines the role of meteorology in linking near surface emissions of particulate matter and associated ambient concentrations in urban areas. The examination is conducted with two models: a steady state model based on urban dispersion models developed earlier, and an unsteady state model that accounts for time varying meteorological and emission inputs. After conducting sensitivity studies with the models, they are applied in Pune, India to (a) check consistency between estimates of surface emissions of particulate matter (with aerodynamic diameters of less than m, referred to as PM and observed ambient concentrations and (b) identify the variables that govern air quality. Results from the modeling exercise indicate that (1) nighttime meteorology governs both hourly as well as 24h averaged concentrations and (2) because the wind speeds in urban areas are typically low, concentration estimates from the steady state model differ substantially from those of the unsteady state model during the nighttime hours both in magnitude and in timing of the peaks; however, the difference between the 24h averaged concentrations from the two models is less than 5% for the cases considered here. Because our understanding of nighttime meteorology in urban areas is limited, there is a need for experimental programs to relate the diurnal variation of concentrations with associated meteorology, especially during the night. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]