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An important goal in researching the biology of olfaction is to link the perception of smells to the chemistry of odorants. In other words, why do some odorants smell like fruits and others like flowers? While the so-called stimulus-percept issue was resolved in the field of color vision some time ago, the relationship between the chemistry and psycho-biology of odors remains unclear up to the present day. Although a series of investigations have demonstrated that this relationship exists, the descriptive and explicative aspects of the proposed models that are currently in use require greater sophistication. One reason for this is that the algorithms of current models do not consistently consider the possibility that multiple chemical rules can describe a single quality despite the fact that this is the case in reality, whereby two very different molecules can evoke a similar odor. Moreover, the available datasets are often large and heterogeneous, thus rendering the generation of multiple rules without any use of a computational approach overly complex. We considered these two issues in the present paper. First, we built a new database containing 1689 odorants characterized by physicochemical properties and olfactory qualities. Second, we developed a computational method based on a subgroup discovery algorithm that discriminated perceptual qualities of smells on the basis of physicochemical properties. Third, we ran a series of experiments on 74 distinct olfactory qualities and showed that the generation and validation of rules linking chemistry to odor perception was possible. Taken together, our findings provide significant new insights into the relationship between stimulus and percept in olfaction. In addition, by automatically extracting new knowledge linking chemistry of odorants and psychology of smells, our results provide a new computational framework of analysis enabling scientists in the field to test original hypotheses using descriptive or predictive modeling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper shows that the various computations underlying spatial cognition can be implemented using statistical inference in a single probabilistic model. Inference is implemented using a common set of ‘lower-level’ computations involving forward and backward inference over time. For example, to estimate where you are in a known environment, forward inference is used to optimally combine location estimates from path integration with those from sensory input. To decide which way to turn to reach a goal, forward inference is used to compute the likelihood of reaching that goal under each option. To work out which environment you are in, forward inference is used to compute the likelihood of sensory observations under the different hypotheses. For reaching sensory goals that require a chaining together of decisions, forward inference can be used to compute a state trajectory that will lead to that goal, and backward inference to refine the route and estimate control signals that produce the required trajectory. We propose that these computations are reflected in recent findings of pattern replay in the mammalian brain. Specifically, that theta sequences reflect decision making, theta flickering reflects model selection, and remote replay reflects route and motor planning. We also propose a mapping of the above computational processes onto lateral and medial entorhinal cortex and hippocampus. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simian Foamy Virus (SFV) can be transmitted from non-human primates (NHP) to humans. However, there are no documented cases of human to human transmission, and significant differences exist between infection in NHP and human hosts. The mechanism for these between-host differences is not completely understood. In this paper we develop a new Bayesian approach to the detection of APOBEC3-mediated hypermutation, and use it to compare SFV sequences from human and NHP hosts living in close proximity in Bangladesh. We find that human APOBEC3G can induce genetic changes that may prevent SFV replication in infected humans in vivo. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we use a hybrid multiscale mathematical model that incorporates both individual cell behaviour through the cell-cycle and the effects of the changing microenvironment through oxygen dynamics to study the multiple effects of radiation therapy. The oxygenation status of the cells is considered as one of the important prognostic markers for determining radiation therapy, as hypoxic cells are less radiosensitive. Another factor that critically affects radiation sensitivity is cell-cycle regulation. The effects of radiation therapy are included in the model using a modified linear quadratic model for the radiation damage, incorporating the effects of hypoxia and cell-cycle in determining the cell-cycle phase-specific radiosensitivity. Furthermore, after irradiation, an individual cell's cell-cycle dynamics are intrinsically modified through the activation of pathways responsible for repair mechanisms, often resulting in a delay/arrest in the cell-cycle. The model is then used to study various combinations of multiple doses of cell-cycle dependent chemotherapies and radiation therapy, as radiation may work better by the partial synchronisation of cells in the most radiosensitive phase of the cell-cycle. Moreover, using this multi-scale model, we investigate the optimum sequencing and scheduling of these multi-modality treatments, and the impact of internal and external heterogeneity on the spatio-temporal patterning of the distribution of tumour cells and their response to different treatment schedules. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cancer is mainly caused by somatic genome alterations (SGAs). Precision oncology involves identifying and targeting tumor-specific aberrations resulting from causative SGAs. We developed a novel tumor-specific computational framework that finds the likely causative SGAs in an individual tumor and estimates their impact on oncogenic processes, which suggests the disease mechanisms that are acting in that tumor. This information can be used to guide precision oncology. We report a tumor-specific causal inference (TCI) framework, which estimates causative SGAs by modeling causal relationships between SGAs and molecular phenotypes (e.g., transcriptomic, proteomic, or metabolomic changes) within an individual tumor. We applied the TCI algorithm to tumors from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and estimated for each tumor the SGAs that causally regulate the differentially expressed genes (DEGs) in that tumor. Overall, TCI identified 634 SGAs that are predicted to cause cancer-related DEGs in a significant number of tumors, including most of the previously known drivers and many novel candidate cancer drivers. The inferred causal relationships are statistically robust and biologically sensible, and multiple lines of experimental evidence support the predicted functional impact of both the well-known and the novel candidate drivers that are predicted by TCI. TCI provides a unified framework that integrates multiple types of SGAs and molecular phenotypes to estimate which genome perturbations are causally influencing one or more molecular/cellular phenotypes in an individual tumor. By identifying major candidate drivers and revealing their functional impact in an individual tumor, TCI sheds light on the disease mechanisms of that tumor, which can serve to advance our basic knowledge of cancer biology and to support precision oncology that provides tailored treatment of individual tumors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Author summary Modern network science is a new and exciting research field that has transformed the study of complex systems over the last 2 decades. Of particular interest is the identification of small “network motifs” that might be embedded in a larger network and that indicate the presence of evolutionary design principles or have an overly influential role on system-wide dynamics. Motifs are patterns of interconnections, or subgraphs, that appear in an observed network significantly more often than in compatible randomized networks. The concept of network motifs was introduced into Systems Biology by Milo, Alon and colleagues in 2002, quickly revolutionized the field, and it has had a huge impact in wider scientific domains ever since. Here, we argue that the same concept and tools for the detection of motifs were well known in the ecological literature decades into the last century, a fact that is generally not recognized. We review the early history of network motifs, their evolution in the mathematics literature, and their recent rediscoveries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is a long-established fact that neuronal plasticity occupies the central role in generating neural function and computation. Nevertheless, no unifying account exists of how neurons in a recurrent cortical network learn to compute on temporally and spatially extended stimuli. However, these stimuli constitute the norm, rather than the exception, of the brain's input. Here, we introduce a geometric theory of learning spatiotemporal computations through neuronal plasticity. To that end, we rigorously formulate the problem of neural representations as a relation in space between stimulus-induced neural activity and the asymptotic dynamics of excitable cortical networks. Backed up by computer simulations and numerical analysis, we show that two canonical and widely spread forms of neuronal plasticity, that is, spike-timing-dependent synaptic plasticity and intrinsic plasticity, are both necessary for creating neural representations, such that these computations become realizable. Interestingly, the effects of these forms of plasticity on the emerging neural code relate to properties necessary for both combating and utilizing noise. The neural dynamics also exhibits features of the most likely stimulus in the network's spontaneous activity. These properties of the spatiotemporal neural code resulting from plasticity, having their grounding in nature, further consolidate the biological relevance of our findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We show that existing RNA-seq, DNase-seq, and ChIP-seq data exhibit overdispersed per-base read count distributions that are not matched to existing computational method assumptions. To compensate for this overdispersion we introduce a nonparametric and universal method for processing per-base sequencing read count data called Fixseq. We demonstrate that Fixseq substantially improves the performance of existing RNA-seq, DNase-seq, and ChIP-seq analysis tools when compared with existing alternatives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accumulating evidence suggests that many tumors have a hierarchical organization, with the bulk of the tumor composed of relatively differentiated short-lived progenitor cells that are maintained by a small population of undifferentiated long-lived cancer stem cells. It is unclear, however, whether cancer stem cells originate from normal stem cells or from dedifferentiated progenitor cells. To address this, we mathematically modeled the effect of dedifferentiation on carcinogenesis. We considered a hybrid stochastic-deterministic model of mutation accumulation in both stem cells and progenitors, including dedifferentiation of progenitor cells to a stem cell-like state. We performed exact computer simulations of the emergence of tumor subpopulations with two mutations, and we derived semi-analytical estimates for the waiting time distribution to fixation. Our results suggest that dedifferentiation may play an important role in carcinogenesis, depending on how stem cell homeostasis is maintained. If the stem cell population size is held strictly constant (due to all divisions being asymmetric), we found that dedifferentiation acts like a positive selective force in the stem cell population and thus speeds carcinogenesis. If the stem cell population size is allowed to vary stochastically with density-dependent reproduction rates (allowing both symmetric and asymmetric divisions), we found that dedifferentiation beyond a critical threshold leads to exponential growth of the stem cell population. Thus, dedifferentiation may play a crucial role, the common modeling assumption of constant stem cell population size may not be adequate, and further progress in understanding carcinogenesis demands a more detailed mechanistic understanding of stem cell homeostasis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Chemical Master Equation (CME) is a cornerstone of stochastic analysis and simulation of models of biochemical reaction networks. Yet direct solutions of the CME have remained elusive. Although several approaches overcome the infinite dimensional nature of the CME through projections or other means, a common feature of proposed approaches is their susceptibility to the curse of dimensionality, i.e. the exponential growth in memory and computational requirements in the number of problem dimensions. We present a novel approach that has the potential to “lift” this curse of dimensionality. The approach is based on the use of the recently proposed Quantized Tensor Train (QTT) formatted numerical linear algebra for the low parametric, numerical representation of tensors. The QTT decomposition admits both, algorithms for basic tensor arithmetics with complexity scaling linearly in the dimension (number of species) and sub-linearly in the mode size (maximum copy number), and a numerical tensor rounding procedure which is stable and quasi-optimal. We show how the CME can be represented in QTT format, then use the exponentially-converging -discontinuous Galerkin discretization in time to reduce the CME evolution problem to a set of QTT-structured linear equations to be solved at each time step using an algorithm based on Density Matrix Renormalization Group (DMRG) methods from quantum chemistry. Our method automatically adapts the “basis” of the solution at every time step guaranteeing that it is large enough to capture the dynamics of interest but no larger than necessary, as this would increase the computational complexity. Our approach is demonstrated by applying it to three different examples from systems biology: independent birth-death process, an example of enzymatic futile cycle, and a stochastic switch model. The numerical results on these examples demonstrate that the proposed QTT method achieves dramatic speedups and several orders of magnitude storage savings over direct approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Borders are important as they demarcate developing tissue into distinct functional units. A key challenge is the discovery of mechanisms that can convert morphogen gradients into tissue borders. While mechanisms that produce ultrasensitive cellular responses provide a solution, how extracellular morphogens drive such mechanisms remains poorly understood. Here, we show how Bone Morphogenetic Protein (BMP) and Fibroblast Growth Factor (FGF) pathways interact to generate ultrasensitivity and borders in the dorsal telencephalon. BMP and FGF signaling manipulations in explants produced border defects suggestive of cross inhibition within single cells, which was confirmed in dissociated cultures. Using mathematical modeling, we designed experiments that ruled out alternative cross inhibition mechanisms and identified a cross-inhibitory positive feedback (CIPF) mechanism, or “toggle switch”, which acts upstream of transcriptional targets in dorsal telencephalic cells. CIPF explained several cellular phenomena important for border formation such as threshold tuning, ultrasensitivity, and hysteresis. CIPF explicitly links graded morphogen signaling in the telencephalon to switch-like cellular responses and has the ability to form multiple borders and scale pattern to size. These benefits may apply to other developmental systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We explore a framework to model the dose response of allosteric multisite phosphorylation proteins using a single auxiliary variable. This reduction can closely replicate the steady state behavior of detailed multisite systems such as the Monod-Wyman-Changeux allosteric model or rule-based models. Optimal ultrasensitivity is obtained when the activation of an allosteric protein by its individual sites is concerted and redundant. The reduction makes this framework useful for modeling and analyzing biochemical systems in practical applications, where several multisite proteins may interact simultaneously. As an application we analyze a newly discovered checkpoint signaling pathway in budding yeast, which has been proposed to measure cell growth by monitoring signals generated at sites of plasma membrane growth. We show that the known components of this pathway can form a robust hysteretic switch. In particular, this system incorporates a signal proportional to bud growth or size, a mechanism to read the signal, and an all-or-none response triggered only when the signal reaches a threshold indicating that sufficient growth has occurred. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent years have seen progress in the development of statistically rigorous frameworks to infer outbreak transmission trees (“who infected whom”) from epidemiological and genetic data. Making use of pathogen genome sequences in such analyses remains a challenge, however, with a variety of heuristic approaches having been explored to date. We introduce a statistical method exploiting both pathogen sequences and collection dates to unravel the dynamics of densely sampled outbreaks. Our approach identifies likely transmission events and infers dates of infections, unobserved cases and separate introductions of the disease. It also proves useful for inferring numbers of secondary infections and identifying heterogeneous infectivity and super-spreaders. After testing our approach using simulations, we illustrate the method with the analysis of the beginning of the 2003 Singaporean outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), providing new insights into the early stage of this epidemic. Our approach is the first tool for disease outbreak reconstruction from genetic data widely available as free software, the R package outbreaker. It is applicable to various densely sampled epidemics, and improves previous approaches by detecting unobserved and imported cases, as well as allowing multiple introductions of the pathogen. Because of its generality, we believe this method will become a tool of choice for the analysis of densely sampled disease outbreaks, and will form a rigorous framework for subsequent methodological developments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recently, a molecular pathway linking inflammation to cell transformation has been discovered. This molecular pathway rests on a positive inflammatory feedback loop between NF-κB, Lin28, Let-7 microRNA and IL6, which leads to an epigenetic switch allowing cell transformation. A transient activation of an inflammatory signal, mediated by the oncoprotein Src, activates NF-κB, which elicits the expression of Lin28. Lin28 decreases the expression of Let-7 microRNA, which results in higher level of IL6 than achieved directly by NF-κB. In turn, IL6 can promote NF-κB activation. Finally, IL6 also elicits the synthesis of STAT3, which is a crucial activator for cell transformation. Here, we propose a computational model to account for the dynamical behavior of this positive inflammatory feedback loop. By means of a deterministic model, we show that an irreversible bistable switch between a transformed and a non-transformed state of the cell is at the core of the dynamical behavior of the positive feedback loop linking inflammation to cell transformation. The model indicates that inhibitors (tumor suppressors) or activators (oncogenes) of this positive feedback loop regulate the occurrence of the epigenetic switch by modulating the threshold of inflammatory signal (Src) needed to promote cell transformation. Both stochastic simulations and deterministic simulations of a heterogeneous cell population suggest that random fluctuations (due to molecular noise or cell-to-cell variability) are able to trigger cell transformation. Moreover, the model predicts that oncogenes/tumor suppressors respectively decrease/increase the robustness of the non-transformed state of the cell towards random fluctuations. Finally, the model accounts for the potential effect of competing endogenous RNAs, ceRNAs, on the dynamics of the epigenetic switch. Depending on their microRNA targets, the model predicts that ceRNAs could act as oncogenes or tumor suppressors by regulating the occurrence of cell transformation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Movement interactions and the underlying social structure in groups have relevance across many social-living species. Collective motion of groups could be based on an “egalitarian” decision system, but in practice it is often influenced by underlying social network structures and by individual characteristics. We investigated whether dominance rank and personality traits are linked to leader and follower roles during joint motion of family dogs. We obtained high-resolution spatio-temporal GPS trajectory data (823,148 data points) from six dogs belonging to the same household and their owner during 14 30–40 min unleashed walks. We identified several features of the dogs' paths (e.g., running speed or distance from the owner) which are characteristic of a given dog. A directional correlation analysis quantifies interactions between pairs of dogs that run loops jointly. We found that dogs play the role of the leader about 50–85% of the time, i.e. the leader and follower roles in a given pair are dynamically interchangable. However, on a longer timescale tendencies to lead differ consistently. The network constructed from these loose leader–follower relations is hierarchical, and the dogs' positions in the network correlates with the age, dominance rank, trainability, controllability, and aggression measures derived from personality questionnaires. We demonstrated the possibility of determining dominance rank and personality traits of an individual based only on its logged movement data. The collective motion of dogs is influenced by underlying social network structures and by characteristics such as personality differences. Our findings could pave the way for automated animal personality and human social interaction measurements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work is in line with an on-going effort tending toward a computational (quantitative and refutable) understanding of human neuro-cognitive processes. Many sophisticated models for behavioural and neurobiological data have flourished during the past decade. Most of these models are partly unspecified (i.e. they have unknown parameters) and nonlinear. This makes them difficult to peer with a formal statistical data analysis framework. In turn, this compromises the reproducibility of model-based empirical studies. This work exposes a software toolbox that provides generic, efficient and robust probabilistic solutions to the three problems of model-based analysis of empirical data: (i) data simulation, (ii) parameter estimation/model selection, and (iii) experimental design optimization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Achieving a theoretical foundation for malaria elimination will require a detailed understanding of the quantitative relationships between patient treatment-seeking behavior, treatment coverage, and the effects of curative therapies that also block Plasmodium parasite transmission to mosquito vectors. Here, we report a mechanistic, within-host mathematical model that uses pharmacokinetic (PK) and pharmacodynamic (PD) data to simulate the effects of artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) on Plasmodium falciparum transmission. To contextualize this model, we created a set of global maps of the fold reductions that would be necessary to reduce the malaria RC (i.e. its basic reproductive number under control) to below 1 and thus interrupt transmission. This modeling was applied to low-transmission settings, defined as having a R0<10 based on 2010 data. Our modeling predicts that treating 93–98% of symptomatic infections with an ACT within five days of fever onset would interrupt malaria transmission for ∼91% of the at-risk population of Southeast Asia and ∼74% of the global at-risk population, and lead these populations towards malaria elimination. This level of treatment coverage corresponds to an estimated 81–85% of all infected individuals in these settings. At this coverage level with ACTs, the addition of the gametocytocidal agent primaquine affords no major gains in transmission reduction. Indeed, we estimate that it would require switching ∼180 people from ACTs to ACTs plus primaquine to achieve the same transmission reduction as switching a single individual from untreated to treated with ACTs. Our model thus predicts that the addition of gametocytocidal drugs to treatment regimens provides very small population-wide benefits and that the focus of control efforts in Southeast Asia should be on increasing prompt ACT coverage. Prospects for elimination in much of Sub-Saharan Africa appear far less favorable currently, due to high rates of infection and less frequent and less rapid treatment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Linkage analysis is useful in investigating disease transmission dynamics and the effect of interventions on them, but estimates of probabilities of linkage between infected people from observed data can be biased downward when missingness is informative. We investigate variation in the rates at which subjects' viral genotypes link across groups defined by viral load (low/high) and antiretroviral treatment (ART) status using blood samples from household surveys in the Northeast sector of Mochudi, Botswana. The probability of obtaining a sequence from a sample varies with viral load; samples with low viral load are harder to amplify. Pairwise genetic distances were estimated from aligned nucleotide sequences of HIV-1C env gp120. It is first shown that the probability that randomly selected sequences are linked can be estimated consistently from observed data. This is then used to develop estimates of the probability that a sequence from one group links to at least one sequence from another group under the assumption of independence across pairs. Furthermore, a resampling approach is developed that accounts for the presence of correlation across pairs, with diagnostics for assessing the reliability of the method. Sequences were obtained for 65% of subjects with high viral load (HVL, n = 117), 54% of subjects with low viral load but not on ART (LVL, n = 180), and 45% of subjects on ART (ART, n = 126). The probability of linkage between two individuals is highest if both have HVL, and lowest if one has LVL and the other has LVL or is on ART. Linkage across groups is high for HVL and lower for LVL and ART. Adjustment for missing data increases the group-wise linkage rates by 40–100%, and changes the relative rates between groups. Bias in inferences regarding HIV viral linkage that arise from differential ability to genotype samples can be reduced by appropriate methods for accommodating missing data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Johne's disease (JD), a persistent and slow progressing infection of ruminants such as cows and sheep, is caused by slow replicating bacilli Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP) infecting macrophages in the gut. Infected animals initially mount a cell-mediated CD4 T cell response against MAP which is characterized by the production of interferon (Th1 response). Over time, Th1 response diminishes in most animals and antibody response to MAP antigens becomes dominant (Th2 response). The switch from Th1 to Th2 response occurs concomitantly with disease progression and shedding of the bacteria in feces. Mechanisms controlling this Th1/Th2 switch remain poorly understood. Because Th1 and Th2 responses are known to cross-inhibit each other, it is unclear why initially strong Th1 response is lost over time. Using a novel mathematical model of the immune response to MAP infection we show that the ability of extracellular bacteria to persist outside of macrophages naturally leads to switch of the cellular response to antibody production. Several additional mechanisms may also contribute to the timing of the Th1/Th2 switch including the rate of proliferation of Th1/Th2 responses at the site of infection, efficiency at which immune responses cross-inhibit each other, and the rate at which Th1 response becomes exhausted over time. Our basic model reasonably well explains four different kinetic patterns of the Th1/Th2 responses in MAP-infected sheep by variability in the initial bacterial dose and the efficiency of the MAP-specific T cell responses. Taken together, our novel mathematical model identifies factors of bacterial and host origin that drive kinetics of the immune response to MAP and provides the basis for testing the impact of vaccination or early treatment on the duration of infection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The role intrinsic statistical fluctuations play in creating avalanches – patterns of complex bursting activity with scale-free properties – is examined in leaky Markovian networks. Using this broad class of models, we develop a probabilistic approach that employs a potential energy landscape perspective coupled with a macroscopic description based on statistical thermodynamics. We identify six important thermodynamic quantities essential for characterizing system behavior as a function of network size: the internal potential energy, entropy, free potential energy, internal pressure, pressure, and bulk modulus. In agreement with classical phase transitions, these quantities evolve smoothly as a function of the network size until a critical value is reached. At that value, a discontinuity in pressure is observed that leads to a spike in the bulk modulus demarcating loss of thermodynamic robustness. We attribute this novel result to a reallocation of the ground states (global minima) of the system's stationary potential energy landscape caused by a noise-induced deformation of its topographic surface. Further analysis demonstrates that appreciable levels of intrinsic noise can cause avalanching, a complex mode of operation that dominates system dynamics at near-critical or subcritical network sizes. Illustrative examples are provided using an epidemiological model of bacterial infection, where avalanching has not been characterized before, and a previously studied model of computational neuroscience, where avalanching was erroneously attributed to specific neural architectures. The general methods developed here can be used to study the emergence of avalanching (and other complex phenomena) in many biological, physical and man-made interaction networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interactions among multiple infectious agents are increasingly recognized as a fundamental issue in the understanding of key questions in public health regarding pathogen emergence, maintenance, and evolution. The full description of host-multipathogen systems is, however, challenged by the multiplicity of factors affecting the interaction dynamics and the resulting competition that may occur at different scales, from the within-host scale to the spatial structure and mobility of the host population. Here we study the dynamics of two competing pathogens in a structured host population and assess the impact of the mobility pattern of hosts on the pathogen competition. We model the spatial structure of the host population in terms of a metapopulation network and focus on two strains imported locally in the system and having the same transmission potential but different infectious periods. We find different scenarios leading to competitive success of either one of the strain or to the codominance of both strains in the system. The dominance of the strain characterized by the shorter or longer infectious period depends exclusively on the structure of the population and on the the mobility of hosts across patches. The proposed modeling framework allows the integration of other relevant epidemiological, environmental and demographic factors, opening the path to further mathematical and computational studies of the dynamics of multipathogen systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The field of medical systems biology aims to advance understanding of molecular mechanisms that drive disease progression and to translate this knowledge into therapies to effectively treat diseases. A challenging task is the investigation of long-term effects of a (pharmacological) treatment, to establish its applicability and to identify potential side effects. We present a new modeling approach, called Analysis of Dynamic Adaptations in Parameter Trajectories (ADAPT), to analyze the long-term effects of a pharmacological intervention. A concept of time-dependent evolution of model parameters is introduced to study the dynamics of molecular adaptations. The progression of these adaptations is predicted by identifying necessary dynamic changes in the model parameters to describe the transition between experimental data obtained during different stages of the treatment. The trajectories provide insight in the affected underlying biological systems and identify the molecular events that should be studied in more detail to unravel the mechanistic basis of treatment outcome. Modulating effects caused by interactions with the proteome and transcriptome levels, which are often less well understood, can be captured by the time-dependent descriptions of the parameters. ADAPT was employed to identify metabolic adaptations induced upon pharmacological activation of the liver X receptor (LXR), a potential drug target to treat or prevent atherosclerosis. The trajectories were investigated to study the cascade of adaptations. This provided a counter-intuitive insight concerning the function of scavenger receptor class B1 (SR-B1), a receptor that facilitates the hepatic uptake of cholesterol. Although activation of LXR promotes cholesterol efflux and -excretion, our computational analysis showed that the hepatic capacity to clear cholesterol was reduced upon prolonged treatment. This prediction was confirmed experimentally by immunoblotting measurements of SR-B1 in hepatic membranes. Next to the identification of potential unwanted side effects, we demonstrate how ADAPT can be used to design new target interventions to prevent these. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nanog is a principal pluripotency regulator exhibiting a disperse distribution within stem cell populations in vivo and in vitro. Increasing evidence points to a functional role of Nanog heterogeneity on stem cell fate decisions. Allelic control of Nanog gene expression was reported recently in mouse embryonic stem cells. To better understand how this mode of regulation influences the observed heterogeneity of NANOG in stem cell populations, we assembled a multiscale stochastic population balance equation framework. In addition to allelic control, gene expression noise and random partitioning at cell division were considered. As a result of allelic Nanog expression, the distribution of Nanog exhibited three distinct states but when combined with transcriptional noise the profile became bimodal. Regardless of their allelic expression pattern, initially uniform populations of stem cells gave rise to the same Nanog heterogeneity within ten cell cycles. Depletion of NANOG content in cells switching off both gene alleles was slower than the accumulation of intracellular NANOG after cells turned on at least one of their Nanog gene copies pointing to Nanog state-dependent dynamics. Allelic transcription of Nanog also raises issues regarding the use of stem cell lines with reporter genes knocked in a single allelic locus. Indeed, significant divergence was observed in the reporter and native protein profiles depending on the difference in their half-lives and insertion of the reporter gene in one or both alleles. In stem cell populations with restricted Nanog expression, allelic regulation facilitates the maintenance of fractions of self-renewing cells with sufficient Nanog content to prevent aberrant loss of pluripotency. Our findings underline the role of allelic control of Nanog expression as a prime determinant of stem cell population heterogeneity and warrant further investigation in the contexts of stem cell specification and cell reprogramming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A molecular device that records time-varying signals would enable new approaches in neuroscience. We have recently proposed such a device, termed a “molecular ticker tape”, in which an engineered DNA polymerase (DNAP) writes time-varying signals into DNA in the form of nucleotide misincorporation patterns. Here, we define a theoretical framework quantifying the expected capabilities of molecular ticker tapes as a function of experimental parameters. We present a decoding algorithm for estimating time-dependent input signals, and DNAP kinetic parameters, directly from misincorporation rates as determined by sequencing. We explore the requirements for accurate signal decoding, particularly the constraints on (1) the polymerase biochemical parameters, and (2) the amplitude, temporal resolution, and duration of the time-varying input signals. Our results suggest that molecular recording devices with kinetic properties similar to natural polymerases could be used to perform experiments in which neural activity is compared across several experimental conditions, and that devices engineered by combining favorable biochemical properties from multiple known polymerases could potentially measure faster phenomena such as slow synchronization of neuronal oscillations. Sophisticated engineering of DNAPs is likely required to achieve molecular recording of neuronal activity with single-spike temporal resolution over experimentally relevant timescales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The computation represented by a sensory neuron's response to stimuli is constructed from an array of physiological processes both belonging to that neuron and inherited from its inputs. Although many of these physiological processes are known to be nonlinear, linear approximations are commonly used to describe the stimulus selectivity of sensory neurons (i.e., linear receptive fields). Here we present an approach for modeling sensory processing, termed the Nonlinear Input Model (NIM), which is based on the hypothesis that the dominant nonlinearities imposed by physiological mechanisms arise from rectification of a neuron's inputs. Incorporating such ‘upstream nonlinearities’ within the standard linear-nonlinear (LN) cascade modeling structure implicitly allows for the identification of multiple stimulus features driving a neuron's response, which become directly interpretable as either excitatory or inhibitory. Because its form is analogous to an integrate-and-fire neuron receiving excitatory and inhibitory inputs, model fitting can be guided by prior knowledge about the inputs to a given neuron, and elements of the resulting model can often result in specific physiological predictions. Furthermore, by providing an explicit probabilistic model with a relatively simple nonlinear structure, its parameters can be efficiently optimized and appropriately regularized. Parameter estimation is robust and efficient even with large numbers of model components and in the context of high-dimensional stimuli with complex statistical structure (e.g. natural stimuli). We describe detailed methods for estimating the model parameters, and illustrate the advantages of the NIM using a range of example sensory neurons in the visual and auditory systems. We thus present a modeling framework that can capture a broad range of nonlinear response functions while providing physiologically interpretable descriptions of neural computation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most chronic viral infections are managed with small molecule therapies that inhibit replication but are not curative because non-replicating viral forms can persist despite decades of suppressive treatment. There are therefore numerous strategies in development to eradicate all non-replicating viruses from the body. We are currently engineering DNA cleavage enzymes that specifically target hepatitis B virus covalently closed circular DNA (HBV cccDNA), the episomal form of the virus that persists despite potent antiviral therapies. DNA cleavage enzymes, including homing endonucleases or meganucleases, zinc-finger nucleases (ZFNs), TAL effector nucleases (TALENs), and CRISPR-associated system 9 (Cas9) proteins, can disrupt specific regions of viral DNA. Because DNA repair is error prone, the virus can be neutralized after repeated cleavage events when a target sequence becomes mutated. DNA cleavage enzymes will be delivered as genes within viral vectors that enter hepatocytes. Here we develop mathematical models that describe the delivery and intracellular activity of DNA cleavage enzymes. Model simulations predict that high vector to target cell ratio, limited removal of delivery vectors by humoral immunity, and avid binding between enzyme and its DNA target will promote the highest level of cccDNA disruption. Development of de novo resistance to cleavage enzymes may occur if DNA cleavage and error prone repair does not render the viral episome replication incompetent: our model predicts that concurrent delivery of multiple enzymes which target different vital cccDNA regions, or sequential delivery of different enzymes, are both potentially useful strategies for avoiding multi-enzyme resistance. The underlying dynamics of cccDNA persistence are unlikely to impact the probability of cure provided that antiviral therapy is given concurrently during eradication trials. We conclude by describing experiments that can be used to validate the model, which will in turn provide vital information for dose selection for potential curative trials in animals and ultimately humans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Flow cytometry is the prototypical assay for multi-parameter single cell analysis, and is essential in vaccine and biomarker research for the enumeration of antigen-specific lymphocytes that are often found in extremely low frequencies (0.1% or less). Standard analysis of flow cytometry data relies on visual identification of cell subsets by experts, a process that is subjective and often difficult to reproduce. An alternative and more objective approach is the use of statistical models to identify cell subsets of interest in an automated fashion. Two specific challenges for automated analysis are to detect extremely low frequency event subsets without biasing the estimate by pre-processing enrichment, and the ability to align cell subsets across multiple data samples for comparative analysis. In this manuscript, we develop hierarchical modeling extensions to the Dirichlet Process Gaussian Mixture Model (DPGMM) approach we have previously described for cell subset identification, and show that the hierarchical DPGMM (HDPGMM) naturally generates an aligned data model that captures both commonalities and variations across multiple samples. HDPGMM also increases the sensitivity to extremely low frequency events by sharing information across multiple samples analyzed simultaneously. We validate the accuracy and reproducibility of HDPGMM estimates of antigen-specific T cells on clinically relevant reference peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PBMC) samples with known frequencies of antigen-specific T cells. These cell samples take advantage of retrovirally TCR-transduced T cells spiked into autologous PBMC samples to give a defined number of antigen-specific T cells detectable by HLA-peptide multimer binding. We provide open source software that can take advantage of both multiple processors and GPU-acceleration to perform the numerically-demanding computations. We show that hierarchical modeling is a useful probabilistic approach that can provide a consistent labeling of cell subsets and increase the sensitivity of rare event detection in the context of quantifying antigen-specific immune responses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gain control is essential for the proper function of any sensory system. However, the precise mechanisms for achieving effective gain control in the brain are unknown. Based on our understanding of the existence and strength of connections in the insect olfactory system, we analyze the conditions that lead to controlled gain in a randomly connected network of excitatory and inhibitory neurons. We consider two scenarios for the variation of input into the system. In the first case, the intensity of the sensory input controls the input currents to a fixed proportion of neurons of the excitatory and inhibitory populations. In the second case, increasing intensity of the sensory stimulus will both, recruit an increasing number of neurons that receive input and change the input current that they receive. Using a mean field approximation for the network activity we derive relationships between the parameters of the network that ensure that the overall level of activity of the excitatory population remains unchanged for increasing intensity of the external stimulation. We find that, first, the main parameters that regulate network gain are the probabilities of connections from the inhibitory population to the excitatory population and of the connections within the inhibitory population. Second, we show that strict gain control is not achievable in a random network in the second case, when the input recruits an increasing number of neurons. Finally, we confirm that the gain control conditions derived from the mean field approximation are valid in simulations of firing rate models and Hodgkin-Huxley conductance based models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biological and social networks are composed of heterogeneous nodes that contribute differentially to network structure and function. A number of algorithms have been developed to measure this variation. These algorithms have proven useful for applications that require assigning scores to individual nodes–from ranking websites to determining critical species in ecosystems–yet the mechanistic basis for why they produce good rankings remains poorly understood. We show that a unifying property of these algorithms is that they quantify consensus in the network about a node's state or capacity to perform a function. The algorithms capture consensus by either taking into account the number of a target node's direct connections, and, when the edges are weighted, the uniformity of its weighted in-degree distribution (breadth), or by measuring net flow into a target node (depth). Using data from communication, social, and biological networks we find that that how an algorithm measures consensus–through breadth or depth– impacts its ability to correctly score nodes. We also observe variation in sensitivity to source biases in interaction/adjacency matrices: errors arising from systematic error at the node level or direct manipulation of network connectivity by nodes. Our results indicate that the breadth algorithms, which are derived from information theory, correctly score nodes (assessed using independent data) and are robust to errors. However, in cases where nodes “form opinions” about other nodes using indirect information, like reputation, depth algorithms, like Eigenvector Centrality, are required. One caveat is that Eigenvector Centrality is not robust to error unless the network is transitive or assortative. In these cases the network structure allows the depth algorithms to effectively capture breadth as well as depth. Finally, we discuss the algorithms' cognitive and computational demands. This is an important consideration in systems in which individuals use the collective opinions of others to make decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Penalized Multiple Regression (PMR) can be used to discover novel disease associations in GWAS datasets. In practice, proposed PMR methods have not been able to identify well-supported associations in GWAS that are undetectable by standard association tests and thus these methods are not widely applied. Here, we present a combined algorithmic and heuristic framework for PUMA (Penalized Unified Multiple-locus Association) analysis that solves the problems of previously proposed methods including computational speed, poor performance on genome-scale simulated data, and identification of too many associations for real data to be biologically plausible. The framework includes a new minorize-maximization (MM) algorithm for generalized linear models (GLM) combined with heuristic model selection and testing methods for identification of robust associations. The PUMA framework implements the penalized maximum likelihood penalties previously proposed for GWAS analysis (i.e. Lasso, Adaptive Lasso, NEG, MCP), as well as a penalty that has not been previously applied to GWAS (i.e. LOG). Using simulations that closely mirror real GWAS data, we show that our framework has high performance and reliably increases power to detect weak associations, while existing PMR methods can perform worse than single marker testing in overall performance. To demonstrate the empirical value of PUMA, we analyzed GWAS data for type 1 diabetes, Crohns's disease, and rheumatoid arthritis, three autoimmune diseases from the original Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium. Our analysis replicates known associations for these diseases and we discover novel etiologically relevant susceptibility loci that are invisible to standard single marker tests, including six novel associations implicating genes involved in pancreatic function, insulin pathways and immune-cell function in type 1 diabetes; three novel associations implicating genes in pro- and anti-inflammatory pathways in Crohn's disease; and one novel association implicating a gene involved in apoptosis pathways in rheumatoid arthritis. We provide software for applying our PUMA analysis framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Populations of cells often switch states as a group to cope with environmental changes such as nutrient availability and cell density. Although the gene circuits that underlie the switches are well understood at the level of single cells, the ways in which such circuits work in concert among many cells to support group-level switches are not fully explored. Experimental studies of microbial quorum sensing show that group-level changes in cellular states occur in either a graded or an all-or-none fashion. Here, we show through numerical simulations and mathematical analysis that these behaviors generally originate from two distinct forms of bistability. The choice of bistability is uniquely determined by a dimensionless parameter that compares the synthesis and the transport of the inducing molecules. The role of the parameter is universal, such that it not only applies to the autoinducing circuits typically found in bacteria but also to the more complex gene circuits involved in transmembrane receptor signaling. Furthermore, in gene circuits with negative feedback, the same dimensionless parameter determines the coherence of group-level transitions from quiescence to a rhythmic state. The set of biochemical parameters in bacterial quorum-sensing circuits appear to be tuned so that the cells can use either type of transition. The design principle identified here serves as the basis for the analysis and control of cellular collective decision making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Small-World Networks (SWNs) represent a fundamental model for the comprehension of many complex man-made and biological networks. In the central nervous system, SWN models have been shown to fit well both anatomical and functional maps at the macroscopic level. However, the functional microscopic level, where the nodes of a network are represented by single neurons, is still poorly understood. At this level, although recent evidences suggest that functional connection graphs exhibit small-world organization, it is not known whether and how these maps, potentially distributed in multiple brain regions, change across different conditions, such as spontaneous and stimulus-evoked activities. We addressed these questions by analyzing the data from simultaneous multi-array extracellular recordings in three brain regions of rats, diversely involved in somatosensory information processing: the ventropostero-lateral thalamic nuclei, the primary somatosensory cortex and the centro-median thalamic nuclei. From both spike and Local Field Potential (LFP) recordings, we estimated the functional connection graphs by using the Normalized Compression Similarity for spikes and the Phase Synchrony for LFPs. Then, by using graph-theoretical statistics, we characterized the functional topology both during spontaneous activity and sensory stimulation. Our main results show that: (i) spikes and LFPs show SWN organization during spontaneous activity; (ii) after stimulation onset, while substantial functional graph reconfigurations occur both in spike and LFPs, small-worldness is nonetheless preserved; (iii) the stimulus triggers a significant increase of inter-area LFP connections without modifying the topology of intra-area functional connections. Finally, investigating computationally the functional substrate that supports the observed phenomena, we found that (iv) the fundamental concept of cell assemblies, transient groups of activating neurons, can be described by small-world networks. Our results suggest that activity of neurons from multiple areas of the rat somatosensory system contributes to the integration of local computations arisen in distributed functional cell assemblies according to the principles of SWNs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Malaria and lymphatic filariasis (LF) continue to cause a considerable public health burden globally and are co-endemic in many regions of sub-Saharan Africa. These infections are transmitted by the same mosquito species which raises important questions about optimal vector control strategies in co-endemic regions, as well as the effect of the presence of each infection on endemicity of the other; there is currently little consensus on the latter. The need for comprehensive modelling studies to address such questions is therefore significant, yet very few have been undertaken to date despite the recognised explanatory power of reliable dynamic mathematical models. Here, we develop a malaria-LF co-infection modelling framework that accounts for two key interactions between these infections, namely the increase in vector mortality as LF mosquito prevalence increases and the antagonistic Th1/Th2 immune response that occurs in co-infected hosts. We consider the crucial interplay between these interactions on the resulting endemic prevalence when introducing each infection in regions where the other is already endemic (e.g. due to regional environmental change), and the associated timescale for such changes, as well as effects on the basic reproduction number R0 of each disease. We also highlight potential perverse effects of vector controls on human infection prevalence in co-endemic regions, noting that understanding such effects is critical in designing optimal integrated control programmes. Hence, as well as highlighting where better data are required to more reliably address such questions, we provide an important framework that will form the basis of future scenario analysis tools used to plan and inform policy decisions on intervention measures in different transmission settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Behavioural and neurophysiological studies in primates have increasingly shown the involvement of urgency signals during the temporal integration of sensory evidence in perceptual decision-making. Neuronal correlates of such signals have been found in the parietal cortex, and in separate studies, demonstrated attention-induced gain modulation of both excitatory and inhibitory neurons. Although previous computational models of decision-making have incorporated gain modulation, their abstract forms do not permit an understanding of the contribution of inhibitory gain modulation. Thus, the effects of co-modulating both excitatory and inhibitory neuronal gains on decision-making dynamics and behavioural performance remain unclear. In this work, we incorporate time-dependent co-modulation of the gains of both excitatory and inhibitory neurons into our previous biologically based decision circuit model. We base our computational study in the context of two classic motion-discrimination tasks performed in animals. Our model shows that by simultaneously increasing the gains of both excitatory and inhibitory neurons, a variety of the observed dynamic neuronal firing activities can be replicated. In particular, the model can exhibit winner-take-all decision-making behaviour with higher firing rates and within a significantly more robust model parameter range. It also exhibits short-tailed reaction time distributions even when operating near a dynamical bifurcation point. The model further shows that neuronal gain modulation can compensate for weaker recurrent excitation in a decision neural circuit, and support decision formation and storage. Higher neuronal gain is also suggested in the more cognitively demanding reaction time than in the fixed delay version of the task. Using the exact temporal delays from the animal experiments, fast recruitment of gain co-modulation is shown to maximize reward rate, with a timescale that is surprisingly near the experimentally fitted value. Our work provides insights into the simultaneous and rapid modulation of excitatory and inhibitory neuronal gains, which enables flexible, robust, and optimal decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple cells in primary visual cortex were famously found to respond to low-level image components such as edges. Sparse coding and independent component analysis (ICA) emerged as the standard computational models for simple cell coding because they linked their receptive fields to the statistics of visual stimuli. However, a salient feature of image statistics, occlusions of image components, is not considered by these models. Here we ask if occlusions have an effect on the predicted shapes of simple cell receptive fields. We use a comparative approach to answer this question and investigate two models for simple cells: a standard linear model and an occlusive model. For both models we simultaneously estimate optimal receptive fields, sparsity and stimulus noise. The two models are identical except for their component superposition assumption. We find the image encoding and receptive fields predicted by the models to differ significantly. While both models predict many Gabor-like fields, the occlusive model predicts a much sparser encoding and high percentages of ‘globular’ receptive fields. This relatively new center-surround type of simple cell response is observed since reverse correlation is used in experimental studies. While high percentages of ‘globular’ fields can be obtained using specific choices of sparsity and overcompleteness in linear sparse coding, no or only low proportions are reported in the vast majority of studies on linear models (including all ICA models). Likewise, for the here investigated linear model and optimal sparsity, only low proportions of ‘globular’ fields are observed. In comparison, the occlusive model robustly infers high proportions and can match the experimentally observed high proportions of ‘globular’ fields well. Our computational study, therefore, suggests that ‘globular’ fields may be evidence for an optimal encoding of visual occlusions in primary visual cortex. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The regulatory roles of sphingolipids in diverse cell functions have been characterized extensively. However, the dynamics and interactions among the different sphingolipid species are difficult to assess, because de novo biosynthesis, metabolic inter-conversions, and the retrieval of sphingolipids from membranes form a complex, highly regulated pathway system. Here we analyze the heat stress response of this system in the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae and demonstrate how the cell dynamically adjusts its enzyme profile so that it is appropriate for operation under stress conditions before changes in gene expression become effective. The analysis uses metabolic time series data, a complex mathematical model, and a custom-tailored optimization strategy. The results demonstrate that all enzyme activities rapidly increase in an immediate response to the elevated temperature. After just a few minutes, different functional clusters of enzymes follow distinct activity patterns. Interestingly, starting after about six minutes, both de novo biosynthesis and all exit routes from central sphingolipid metabolism become blocked, and the remaining metabolic activity consists entirely of an internal redistribution among different sphingoid base and ceramide pools. After about 30 minutes, heat stress is still in effect and the enzyme activity profile is still significantly changed. Importantly, however, the metabolites have regained concentrations that are essentially the same as those under optimal conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Breast cancer is the most common malignancy in women and is responsible for hundreds of thousands of deaths annually. As with most cancers, it is a heterogeneous disease and different breast cancer subtypes are treated differently. Understanding the difference in prognosis for breast cancer based on its molecular and phenotypic features is one avenue for improving treatment by matching the proper treatment with molecular subtypes of the disease. In this work, we employed a competition-based approach to modeling breast cancer prognosis using large datasets containing genomic and clinical information and an online real-time leaderboard program used to speed feedback to the modeling team and to encourage each modeler to work towards achieving a higher ranked submission. We find that machine learning methods combined with molecular features selected based on expert prior knowledge can improve survival predictions compared to current best-in-class methodologies and that ensemble models trained across multiple user submissions systematically outperform individual models within the ensemble. We also find that model scores are highly consistent across multiple independent evaluations. This study serves as the pilot phase of a much larger competition open to the whole research community, with the goal of understanding general strategies for model optimization using clinical and molecular profiling data and providing an objective, transparent system for assessing prognostic models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Earth, with its core-driven magnetic field, convective mantle, mobile lid tectonics, oceans of liquid water, dynamic climate and abundant life is arguably the most complex system in the known universe. This system has exhibited stability in the sense of, bar a number of notable exceptions, surface temperature remaining within the bounds required for liquid water and so a significant biosphere. Explanations for this range from anthropic principles in which the Earth was essentially lucky, to homeostatic Gaia in which the abiotic and biotic components of the Earth system self-organise into homeostatic states that are robust to a wide range of external perturbations. Here we present results from a conceptual model that demonstrates the emergence of homeostasis as a consequence of the feedback loop operating between life and its environment. Formulating the model in terms of Gaussian processes allows the development of novel computational methods in order to provide solutions. We find that the stability of this system will typically increase then remain constant with an increase in biological diversity and that the number of attractors within the phase space exponentially increases with the number of environmental variables while the probability of the system being in an attractor that lies within prescribed boundaries decreases approximately linearly. We argue that the cybernetic concept of rein control provides insights into how this model system, and potentially any system that is comprised of biological to environmental feedback loops, self-organises into homeostatic states. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We develop a coarse-grained stochastic model for the influence of signal relay on the collective behavior of migrating Dictyostelium discoideum cells. In the experiment, cells display a range of collective migration patterns, including uncorrelated motion, formation of partially localized streams, and clumping, depending on the type of cell and the strength of the external, linear concentration gradient of the signaling molecule cyclic adenosine monophosphate (cAMP). From our model, we find that the pattern of migration can be quantitatively described by the competition of two processes, the secretion rate of cAMP by the cells and the degradation rate of cAMP in the gradient chamber. Model simulations are compared to experiments for a wide range of strengths of an external linear-gradient signal. With degradation, the model secreting cells form streams and efficiently transverse the gradient, but without degradation, we find that model secreting cells form clumps without streaming. This indicates that the observed effective collective migration in streams requires not only signal relay but also degradation of the signal. In addition, our model allows us to detect and quantify precursors of correlated motion, even when cells do not exhibit obvious streaming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use the qualitative insight of a planar neuronal phase portrait to detect an excitability switch in arbitrary conductance-based models from a simple mathematical condition. The condition expresses a balance between ion channels that provide a negative feedback at resting potential (restorative channels) and those that provide a positive feedback at resting potential (regenerative channels). Geometrically, the condition imposes a transcritical bifurcation that rules the switch of excitability through the variation of a single physiological parameter. Our analysis of six different published conductance based models always finds the transcritical bifurcation and the associated switch in excitability, which suggests that the mathematical predictions have a physiological relevance and that a same regulatory mechanism is potentially involved in the excitability and signaling of many neurons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For many infectious disease processes such as emerging zoonoses and vaccine-preventable diseases, and infections occur as self-limited stuttering transmission chains. A mechanistic understanding of transmission is essential for characterizing the risk of emerging diseases and monitoring spatio-temporal dynamics. Thus methods for inferring and the degree of heterogeneity in transmission from stuttering chain data have important applications in disease surveillance and management. Previous researchers have used chain size distributions to infer , but estimation of the degree of individual-level variation in infectiousness (as quantified by the dispersion parameter, ) has typically required contact tracing data. Utilizing branching process theory along with a negative binomial offspring distribution, we demonstrate how maximum likelihood estimation can be applied to chain size data to infer both and the dispersion parameter that characterizes heterogeneity. While the maximum likelihood value for is a simple function of the average chain size, the associated confidence intervals are dependent on the inferred degree of transmission heterogeneity. As demonstrated for monkeypox data from the Democratic Republic of Congo, this impacts when a statistically significant change in is detectable. In addition, by allowing for superspreading events, inference of shifts the threshold above which a transmission chain should be considered anomalously large for a given value of (thus reducing the probability of false alarms about pathogen adaptation). Our analysis of monkeypox also clarifies the various ways that imperfect observation can impact inference of transmission parameters, and highlights the need to quantitatively evaluate whether observation is likely to significantly bias results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]