Search

Mathematical models are powerful tools in HIV epidemiology, producing quantitative projections of key indicators such as HIV incidence and prevalence. In order to improve the accuracy of predictions, such models need to incorporate a number of behavioural and biological heterogeneities, especially those related to the sexual network within which HIV transmission occurs. An individual-based model, which explicitly models sexual partnerships, is thus often the most natural type of model to choose. In this paper we present PopART-IBM, a computationally efficient individual-based model capable of simulating 50 years of an HIV epidemic in a large, high-prevalence community in under a minute. We show how the model calibrates within a Bayesian inference framework to detailed age- and sex-stratified data from multiple sources on HIV prevalence, awareness of HIV status, ART status, and viral suppression for an HPTN 071 (PopART) study community in Zambia, and present future projections of HIV prevalence and incidence for this community in the absence of trial intervention., Author summary In this paper we present PopART-IBM, an individual-based model used to simulate HIV transmission in communities in high prevalence settings. We show that PopART-IBM can simulate transmission over a span of decades in a large community in less than a minute. This computational efficiency allows us to calibrate the model within an inference framework, and we show an illustrative example of calibration using an adaptive population Monte Carlo Approximate Bayesian Computation algorithm for a community in Zambia that was part of the HPTN-071 (PopART) trial. We compare the detailed model output to real-world data collected during the trial from this community. Finally, we project how the HIV epidemic would have changed over time in this community if no intervention from the trial had occurred.

Experiments on tumor spheroids have shown that compressive stress from their environment can reversibly decrease tumor expansion rates and final sizes. Stress release experiments show that nonuniform anisotropic elastic stresses can be distributed throughout. The elastic stresses are maintained by structural proteins and adhesive molecules, and can be actively relaxed by a variety of biophysical processes. In this paper, we present a new continuum model to investigate how the growth-induced elastic stresses and active stress relaxation, in conjunction with cell size control feedback machinery, regulate the cell density and stress distributions within growing tumors as well as the tumor sizes in the presence of external physical confinement and gradients of growth-promoting chemical fields. We introduce an adaptive reference map that relates the current position with the reference position but adapts to the current position in the Eulerian frame (lab coordinates) via relaxation. This type of stress relaxation is similar to but simpler than the classical Maxwell model of viscoelasticity in its formulation. By fitting the model to experimental data from two independent studies of tumor spheroid growth and their cell density distributions, treating the tumors as incompressible, neo-Hookean elastic materials, we find that the rates of stress relaxation of tumor tissues can be comparable to volumetric growth rates. Our study provides insight on how the biophysical properties of the tumor and host microenvironment, mechanical feedback control and diffusion-limited differential growth act in concert to regulate spatial patterns of stress and growth. When the tumor is stiffer than the host, our model predicts tumors are more able to change their size and mechanical state autonomously, which may help to explain why increased tumor stiffness is an established hallmark of malignant tumors., Author summary The mechanical state of cells can modulate their growth and division dynamics via mechanotransduction, which affects both the cell size distribution and the tissue size as a whole. Experiments on tumor spheroids have shown that compressive stress from their environment can reversibly decrease tumor expansion rates and final sizes. Besides external confinement and compression on the tumor border, a heterogeneous stress field can be generated inside the tumor by nutrient-driven differential growth. Such growth-induced mechanical stresses can be relaxed by tissue rearrangement, which happens during cell neighbor exchanges, cell divisions, and extracellular matrix renewal. In this study, we have developed a continuum model that describes the above mechanical interactions and the dynamics of tissue rearrangement explicitly. Motivated by published experimental data, we consider mechanotransduction where the local compressive stress slows down cell growth and cell size reduction limits cell division. We have analyzed how external mechanical stimuli and internal processes influence the outcome of cell-and-tissue sizes and spatial patterns of cell density and mechanical stress in growing tumors.

Stay-at-home orders and shutdowns of non-essential businesses are powerful, but socially costly, tools to control the pandemic spread of SARS-CoV-2. Mass testing strategies, which rely on widely administered frequent and rapid diagnostics to identify and isolate infected individuals, could be a potentially less disruptive management strategy, particularly where vaccine access is limited. In this paper, we assess the extent to which mass testing and isolation strategies can reduce reliance on socially costly non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as distancing and shutdowns. We develop a multi-compartmental model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission incorporating both preventative non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and testing and isolation to evaluate their combined effect on public health outcomes. Our model is designed to be a policy-guiding tool that captures important realities of the testing system, including constraints on test administration and non-random testing allocation. We show how strategic changes in the characteristics of the testing system, including test administration, test delays, and test sensitivity, can reduce reliance on preventative NPIs without compromising public health outcomes in the future. The lowest NPI levels are possible only when many tests are administered and test delays are short, given limited immunity in the population. Reducing reliance on NPIs is highly dependent on the ability of a testing program to identify and isolate unreported, asymptomatic infections. Changes in NPIs, including the intensity of lockdowns and stay at home orders, should be coordinated with increases in testing to ensure epidemic control; otherwise small additional lifting of these NPIs can lead to dramatic increases in infections, hospitalizations and deaths. Importantly, our results can be used to guide ramp-up of testing capacity in outbreak settings, allow for the flexible design of combined interventions based on social context, and inform future cost-benefit analyses to identify efficient pandemic management strategies., Author summary The global spread of SARS-CoV-2 and the strategies used to manage it have come at significant societal costs. We analyze how mixed control strategies, which utilize interventions that prevent new infections from occurring (e.g., distancing or shut-downs) and others that actively search for and isolate existing infections (here, mass testing), can achieve improved public health outcomes while avoiding severe socio-economic burdens. Our results suggest that increasing testing capacity, including the number of tests available and the speed at which test results are provided, can reduce reliance on costly preventative interventions. Such reduction is possible with more isolation of active infections, including those without reported symptoms. However, failing to maintain preventative interventions without sufficient testing capacity can lead to large increases in infection burdens. By defining the combined effect of these interventions through mathematical models, this study provides insight into relaxation of distancing measures, and lays the groundwork for future public health economics analyses on the cost-effectiveness of combined management strategies.

Animals rely on sensory feedback to generate accurate, reliable movements. In many flying insects, strain-sensitive neurons on the wings provide rapid feedback that is critical for stable flight control. While the impacts of wing structure on aerodynamic performance have been widely studied, the impacts of wing structure on sensing are largely unexplored. In this paper, we show how the structural properties of the wing and encoding by mechanosensory neurons interact to jointly determine optimal sensing strategies and performance. Specifically, we examine how neural sensors can be placed effectively on a flapping wing to detect body rotation about different axes, using a computational wing model with varying flexural stiffness. A small set of mechanosensors, conveying strain information at key locations with a single action potential per wingbeat, enable accurate detection of body rotation. Optimal sensor locations are concentrated at either the wing base or the wing tip, and they transition sharply as a function of both wing stiffness and neural threshold. Moreover, the sensing strategy and performance is robust to both external disturbances and sensor loss. Typically, only five sensors are needed to achieve near-peak accuracy, with a single sensor often providing accuracy well above chance. Our results show that small-amplitude, dynamic signals can be extracted efficiently with spatially and temporally sparse sensors in the context of flight. The demonstrated interaction of wing structure and neural encoding properties points to the importance of understanding each in the context of their joint evolution., Author summary In addition to generating forces for flight, insect wings also serve an important role as sensory structures, providing rapid feedback about wing bending that is used to stabilize flight. While much is known about how wing structure affects aerodynamic performance, the effects of wing structure on sensing remain unexplored. Using a computational model of a flapping wing, we examine how sensing strategies depend on wing stiffness and sensor properties. We show that body rotations can be accurately detected with a small number of sensors on the wing across a wide range of conditions. Optimal sensor locations are clustered at either the wing base or wing tip, depending on a combination of wing stiffness and sensor properties. Moreover, sensing performance is robust to multiple kinds of perturbations. Our work provides a basis for understanding how wing structure impacts incoming sensory information during flight.

Ethanol is one of the most widely used recreational substances in the world and due to its ubiquitous use, ethanol abuse has been the cause of over 3.3 million deaths each year. In addition to its effects, ethanol’s primary metabolite, acetaldehyde, is a carcinogen that can cause symptoms of facial flushing, headaches, and nausea. How strongly ethanol or acetaldehyde affects an individual depends highly on the genetic polymorphisms of certain genes. In particular, the genetic polymorphisms of mitochondrial aldehyde dehydrogenase, ALDH2, play a large role in the metabolism of acetaldehyde. Thus, it is important to characterize how genetic variations can lead to different exposures and responses to ethanol and acetaldehyde. While the pharmacokinetics of ethanol metabolism through alcohol dehydrogenase have been thoroughly explored in previous studies, in this paper, we combined a base physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model with a whole-body genome-scale model (WBM) to gain further insight into the effect of other less explored processes and genetic variations on ethanol metabolism. This combined model was fit to clinical data and used to show the effect of alcohol concentrations, organ damage, ALDH2 enzyme polymorphisms, and ALDH2-inhibiting drug disulfiram on ethanol and acetaldehyde exposure. Through estimating the reaction rates of auxiliary processes with dynamic Flux Balance Analysis, The PBPK-WBM was able to navigate around a lack of kinetic constants traditionally associated with PK modelling and demonstrate the compensatory effects of the body in response to decreased liver enzyme expression. Additionally, the model demonstrated that acetaldehyde exposure increased with higher dosages of disulfiram and decreased ALDH2 efficiency, and that moderate consumption rates of ethanol could lead to unexpected accumulations in acetaldehyde. This modelling framework combines the comprehensive steady-state analyses from genome-scale models with the dynamics of traditional PK models to create a highly personalized form of PBPK modelling that can push the boundaries of precision medicine., Author summary Alcohol is a widely used recreational drug in many parts of the world and it is often abused or misused, leading to the deaths of millions of people each year from driving under the influence and overdose. Additionally, the body breaks down alcohol into acetaldehyde, a carcinogen that has its own effects ranging from headaches and nausea to liver damage. The effects of ethanol and acetaldehyde vary due to genetic variations that create different forms of the enzymes responsible for breaking them down. Due to these differences, it is important to characterize how these changes affect the metabolism of alcohol and acetaldehyde. To capture these differences, we have created a new model that integrates the traditional pharmacokinetic model with a whole-body genome-scale model that can characterize different genetic variations. In addition, traditional models often require experimentally measured data, yet with this new framework we avoid this tedious process by mathematically solving the genome-scale model with the dynamic Flux Balance Analysis technique, allowing for gap filling. Through this model, we show that the whole-body genome-scale model demonstrates flexibility and robustness that has not been seen before in pharmacokinetic models. Our model combines advantages from both pharmacokinetic and genome-scale modelling and can be personalized to characterize individual reactions to other drugs and further precision medicine.