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As communism fell in Central and Eastern Europe and Eurasia, many of the countries that emerged embarked upon the process of democratization. While some of these countries were successful, others remained authoritarian. Why did a group of countries, all starting from roughly the same political conditions, diverge so drastically in reform? This paper considers theories of democratization from the literature on Latin America, Southern Europe, and Asia, testing variables identified by that body of literature on the entire set of post-communist countries, including those in the Caucasus and Central Asia. This paper also includes a variable not previously operationalized?the effect of the retention of former communist elites in governmental positions?on democracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Central Asia where financial services are limited and controlled by the state, microfinancing, which has seen tremendous growth worldwide in the last decade supported by international donors, provides a significant opportunity for economic and political development. Microfinancing offers mechanisms for serving sectors of the economy that the formal financial system usually considers 'unbankable'. Around the world it has shown to be positively correlated with reducing poverty and improving welfare by allowing poor people to protect, diversify and increase their sources of income and assets; safeguarding the poor against extreme vulnerability by smoothing income fluctuations and maintaining consumption levels; improving family expenditures on education, thereby contributing to improving the human capacity; and reducing family expenditures on health. By supporting small scale economic activities, microfinance also helps promote broad economic participation, develop social capital, and empower the economically active poor against the state. This paper attempts to assess the contribution of microfinance to community-building and political participation in Central Asia by examining the main linkages between microfinance and social capital. Despite the fact that the microfinance sector in Central Asia is less than 10 years old with limited outreach and impact, I argue that by encouraging mutual trust and dependence within borrower groups, by providing an alternative to existing corrupt channels of financial services, and by setting support organizations which encourage association between citizens, microfinancing may be starting to contribute to building an economic society that can potentially feed into some increase in political participation and breakdown of the authoritarian hold on political power. In the long run, microfinancing may provide an incredible opportunity for foreign donors to push the forces of democratization in Central Asia by empowering the lower and middle classes. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bosnia and the North Caucasus are ethnically diverse, post-communistsocieties, where the different ethnic groups at times haveco-existed peacefully and at other times have found themselves atodds with one another or their governments. This study examinesbeliefs in the possibility of inter-ethnic cooperation in eachsociety, based on survey instruments aimed at measuring attitudesand preferences towards the contemporary situation,socio-demographic characteristics, and the nature of cross-nationalrelations in the light of experiences of conflict and continuedunsettled political environment of the region. Our dependentvariable, belief in the possibility of inter-ethnic cooperation, isa categorical variable based on responses the following survey stub:\emph{Among national groups, it is possible to create cooperationbut never to fully trust.} We measure and correct for surveyresponse incomparability across BiH and the North Caucasus by usingthe anchoring vignette along with an estimation technique calledchopit (short for compound hierarchical ordered probit), whichallows us to incorporate anchoring vignettes.We find that there is a substantial belief in the possibility ofinter-ethnic cooperation both in BiH and the North Caucasus, inspite of substantial inter-ethnic violence in each location.Moreover, it appears that while the violent ethnic conflict in therecent history of BiH has created greater barriers to inter-ethniccooperation, but the vast majority of Croats, Bosniacs, and Serbs,agree or strongly agree that cooperation is possible, even withoutthe elusive inter-ethnic --trust.'' The same is true in the NorthCaucasus region, although we have not been able to conduct surveysin Chechnya or Ingusetia. Beyond ascriptive and demographiccharacteristics, very few attitudinal variables seem to be importantin determining this belief in the possibility of cooperation.However, --pocketbook'' issues seem quite prominent as those in BiHand the North Caucasus who believe that things are getting betterand who also have higher levels of material well being are moreoptimistic about cooperation. Those still struggling to survive, orwho perceive their situation to continue to deteriorate are lessoptimistic about inter-ethnic cooperation.The full paper is available by request from mdw@u.washington.edu. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]