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The Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) is the main measure used in Australia for estimating fire risk. Recent work by the authors showed that the FFDI forms stable state regimes, nominated as fire climate regimes. These regimes shifted to greater intensity in southern and eastern Australia around the year 2000 and, a decade later, further north. Reductions in atmospheric moisture were the primary contributor. These changes have not been fully incorporated into future projections. This paper compares the recent regime shifts with the most recent national projections of FFDI, published in 2015. They show that for most states and regions, the 2030 upper limit is approached or exceeded by the recent shift, except for two states with large arid zones, South Australia and Western Australia. Methods for attributing past changes, constructing projections, and the inability of climate models to reproduce the recent decreases in atmospheric moisture, all contribute to these underestimates. To address these shortcomings, we make some suggestions to modify efforts aiming to develop seamless predictions and projections of future fire risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Australia, bushfires are a natural part of the country's landscape and essential for the regeneration of plant species; however, the 2019–20 bushfires were unprecedented in their extent and intensity. This paper is focused on the 2019–20 Australian bushfires and the resulting surface and column atmospheric carbon monoxide (CO) anomalies around Wollongong. Column CO data from the ground-based Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) and Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) site in Wollongong are used together with surface in situ measurements. A systematic comparison was performed between the surface in situ and column measurements of CO to better understand whether column measurements can be used as an estimate of the surface concentrations. If so, satellite column measurements of CO could be used to estimate the exposure of humans to CO and other fire-related pollutants. We find that the enhancements in the column measurements are not always significantly evident in the corresponding surface measurements. Topographical features play a key role in determining the surface exposures from column abundance especially in a coastal city like Wollongong. The topography at Wollongong, combined with meteorological effects, potentially exacerbates differences in the column and surface. Hence, satellite column amounts are unlikely to provide an accurate reflection of exposure at the ground during major events like the 2019–2020 bushfires. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: In 2019–2020, Australia had a particularly bad bushfire season which resulted in large numbers of people and animals being exposed to smoke haze for several weeks. We conducted a literature review to examine the evidence for effects of prolonged exposure to bushfire smoke on cattle. There was general agreement that small airborne particulate matter in smoke is the substance most likely to cause problems. There was indirect evidence about effects on cattle caused by other types of pollution containing particulate matter. We found little evidence to support severe effects on cattle. This may be because cattle do not tend to suffer from the co-morbidities that, in the human population, seem to be made worse by smoke and pollution. However, small changes to death rates or disease that is not severe may go unreported, so further study is warranted. In 2019–2020, a particularly bad bushfire season in Australia resulted in cattle being exposed to prolonged periods of smoke haze and reduced air quality. Bushfire smoke contains many harmful pollutants, and impacts on regions far from the fire front, with smoke haze persisting for weeks. Particulate matter (PM) is one of the major components of bushfire smoke known to have a negative impact on human health. However, little has been reported about the potential effects that bushfire smoke has on cattle exposed to smoke haze for extended periods. We explored the current literature to investigate evidence for likely effects on cattle from prolonged exposure to smoke generated from bushfires in Australia. We conducted a search for papers related to the impacts of smoke on cattle. Initial searching returned no relevant articles through either CAB Direct or PubMed databases, whilst Google Scholar provided a small number of results. The search was then expanded to look at two sub-questions: the type of pollution that is found in bushfire smoke, and the reported effects of both humans and cattle being exposed to these types of pollutants. The primary mechanism for damage due to bushfire smoke is due to small airborne particulate matter (PM). Although evidence demonstrates that PM from bushfire smoke has a measurable impact on both human mortality and cardiorespiratory morbidities, there is little evidence regarding the impact of chronic bushfire smoke exposure in cattle. We hypothesize that cattle are not severely affected by chronic exposure to smoke haze, as evidenced by the lack of reports. This may be because cattle do not tend to suffer from the co-morbidities that, in the human population, seem to be made worse by smoke and pollution. Further, small changes to background mortality rates or transient morbidity may also go unreported. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]