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The Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) is the main measure used in Australia for estimating fire risk. Recent work by the authors showed that the FFDI forms stable state regimes, nominated as fire climate regimes. These regimes shifted to greater intensity in southern and eastern Australia around the year 2000 and, a decade later, further north. Reductions in atmospheric moisture were the primary contributor. These changes have not been fully incorporated into future projections. This paper compares the recent regime shifts with the most recent national projections of FFDI, published in 2015. They show that for most states and regions, the 2030 upper limit is approached or exceeded by the recent shift, except for two states with large arid zones, South Australia and Western Australia. Methods for attributing past changes, constructing projections, and the inability of climate models to reproduce the recent decreases in atmospheric moisture, all contribute to these underestimates. To address these shortcomings, we make some suggestions to modify efforts aiming to develop seamless predictions and projections of future fire risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the first application of mammal tooth enamel carbonate stable isotope analysis for the purpose of investigating late Pleistocene–early Holocene environmental change in an Australian archaeological context. Stable carbon (δ13C) and oxygen (δ18O) isotope ratios were analyzed from archaeological and modern spectacled hare wallaby (Lagorchestes conspicillatus) and hill kangaroo (Osphranter robustus) tooth enamel carbonates from Boodie Cave on Barrow Island in Western Australia. δ18O results track the dynamic paleoecological history at Boodie Cave including a clear shift towards increasing aridity preceding the onset of the Last Glacial Maximum and a period of increased humidity in the early to mid-Holocene. Enamel δ13C reflects divergent species feeding ecology and may imply a long-term shift toward increasing diversity in vegetation structure. This study contributes new data to the carbonate-isotope record for Australian fauna and demonstrates the significant potential of stable isotope based ecological investigations for tracking paleoenvironment change to inter-strata resolution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]