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When the COVID-19 pandemic first emerged in early 2020, healthcare and bureaucratic systems worldwide were caught off guard and largely unprepared to deal with the scale and severity of the outbreak. In Italy, this led to a severe underreporting of infections during the first wave of the spread. The lack of accurate data is critical as it hampers the retrospective assessment of nonpharmacological interventions, the comparison with the following waves, and the estimation and validation of epidemiological models. In particular, during the first wave, reported cases of new infections were strikingly low if compared with their effects in terms of deaths, hospitalizations and intensive care admissions. In this paper, we observe that the hospital admissions during the second wave were very well explained by the convolution of the reported daily infections with an exponential kernel. By formulating the estimation of the actual infections during the first wave as an inverse problem, its solution by a regularization approach is proposed and validated. In this way, it was possible to compute corrected time series of daily infections for each age class. The new estimates are consistent with the serological survey published in June 2020 by the National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) and can be used to speculate on the total number of infections occurring in Italy during 2020, which appears to be about double the number officially recorded. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prospect Theory, proposed and developed by Kahneman and Tversky, demonstrated that people do not make rational decisions based on expected utility, but are instead biased by specific cognitive tendencies leading to neglect, under- or over- consider information, depending on the context of presentation. In this vein, the present paper focuses on whether and how individual decision-making attitudes are prone to change in the presence of globally challenging events. We ran three partial replications of the Kahneman and Tversky (1979) paper, focusing on a set of eight prospects, after a terror attack (Paris, November 2015, 134 subjects) and during the Covid-19 pandemic, both during the first lockdown in Italy (Spring 2020, 176 subjects) and after the first reopening (140 subjects). The results confirm patterns of choice characterizing uncertain times, as shown by previous literature. In particular, we note significant increase of risk aversion, both in the gain and in the loss domains, that consistently emerged in the three replications. Given the nature of our sample, and the heterogeneity between the three periods investigated, we suggest that the phenomenon we present can be explained stress-related effects on decision making rather than by other economic effects, such as the income effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Covid-19 outbreak led all organizations to reorganize their processes to prevent infection and contagion risk. All healthcare facilities, included penitentiary mental health services, had to redesign their processes to safely deliver care services. In this paper, the case of a Penitentiary Mental Health Division located in southern Italy is presented. Soft System Methodology and Business process management principles and techniques are adopted to analyse and redesign the detainees' mental health care process. The process, characterized by direct, close and prolonged contact with patients, exposes detainees and healthcare staff to a high Covid-19 infection risk. Through document analysis, interviews with the actors involved in the process and direct observation, the process's inefficiencies and criticalities are identified. The process is redesigned to make it compliant with Covid-19 prevention provisions and national penitentiary regulations and address the other criticalities. The proposed methodological approach–which innovatively combines Soft System Methodology and Business Process Management–constitutes a human-centered process-based redesign approach that can be used both in healthcare and other organizational settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic drastically affected many areas and contexts of today's society, including school and family. Several studies focused on the worldwide effects of school closures on students' learning outcomes, context, and well-being. However, the data emerging from these studies are often inconsistent and fragmentary, highlighting the need of a comprehensive analysis of the phenomenon. This need is especially urgent for the countries with the most severe school closure, like Italy. This systematic review aims to collect the opinions of parents, teachers, and students on: other dimensions of Italian primary school students affected by school closures, beyond academic performance; hypothetical agreement between the opinions of parents, teachers, and students regarding the different effects of school closures on Italian primary school students; possible differences between the effects of school closures on Italian primary school students and the students in other countries. Our search was conducted using PRISMA 2020 guidelines on Web of Science, Pubmed, Scopus, and EBSCOHost. The results obtained from 34 articles revealed a strong concern on the part of all stakeholders involved in learning during the pandemic, with evident negative effects for Italian school students. The constraint on distance learning led to a drastic change in everyone's routine, and a negative emotional change on the part of young students. Parents and teachers generally considered distance learning to be ineffective for the education of their children and students; they encountered technical-practical difficulties in the use of electronic devices for participation in school activities; overall learning deficits on the part of students, especially in mathematics, as confirmed by INVALSI results were also found. The investigation reveals a condition of shared emotional and academic performance difficulty, and a further challenging circumstance for students previously at risk of marginalization. Further research in this field is paramount to identify new and adequate recovery strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spread of COVID-19 implied a large and fast increase of demand for intensive care services. To face this increase in demand, health care systems need to adapt their response by increasing hospital beds, intensive care unit (ICU) capacity and by (re-)deploying doctors and other personnel. This paper proposes a forecast approach based on the Vector Error Correction model for the daily counts of hospitalized patients with symptoms and of patients in ICU, using publicly available data on the current COVID-19 outbreak in Italy, Switzerland and Spain. The level of analysis is the local government managing the health care system response, which corresponds to regions for Italy. The one-week-ahead forecasts are validated with out-of-sample data over successive weeks; they are found to provide timely and robust prediction of ICU capacity needs in Lombardy, the most-affected Italian region, starting from the sample of the first 2 weeks of data. The same methodology is successfully validated on other Italian regions, Switzerland and Spain. This approach may be used in other countries/regions/provinces to help adapt the health care system response to COVID-19 (or other similar disease); for this purpose, the open-source software code to produce the forecasts is provided with the paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the COVID-19 pandemic, science has been prominently featured in institutional communication and political agendas as never before. Governments substantially relied on scientific experts to analyze pandemic trends, develop anti-COVID-19 vaccines and adopt containment strategies. In this paper, we analyze speeches by three political leaders–Boris Johnson (Prime Minister, UK), Sergio Mattarella (President of the Republic, Italy), and Ursula von der Leyen (President, European Commission)–between February 20, 2020, and February 20, 2022, to identify how science was addressed and framed. The results of the quantitative and qualitative exploration of the speeches highlight three main ways in which political leaders view science: a national pride narrative–i.e., science as an instrument and indicator of national pride and international standing of the country; an ethical narrative–i.e., science as an agent of social growth; an integration narrative–i.e., science as a driving force of both European integration and stronger collaboration between knowledge production and industry. The predominant narrative varies in relation to the political leaders' different institutional contexts and roles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

COVID-19 has got us to face a new situation where, for the lack of ready-to-use vaccines, it is necessary to support vaccination with complex non-pharmaceutical strategies. In this paper, we provide a novel Mixed Integer Nonlinear Programming formulation for fine-grained optimal intervention planning (i.e., at the level of the single day) against newborn epidemics like COVID-19, where a modified SIR model accounting for heterogeneous population classes, social distancing and several types of vaccines (each with its efficacy and delayed effects), allows us to plan an optimal mixed strategy (both pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical) that takes into account both the vaccine availability in limited batches at selected time instants and the need for second doses while keeping hospitalizations and intensive care occupancy below a threshold and requiring that new infections die out at the end of the planning horizon. In order to show the effectiveness of the proposed formulation, we analyze a case study for Italy with realistic parameters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic has been characterized by a social media "infodemic": an overabundance of information whose authenticity may not always be guaranteed. With the potential to lead individuals to harmful decisions for the society, this infodemic represents a severe threat to information security, public health and democracy. In this paper, we assess the interplay between the infodemic and specific aspects of the pandemic, such as the number of cases, the strictness of containment measures, and the news media coverage. We perform a comparative study on three countries that employed different managements of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020—namely Italy, the United Kingdom, and New Zealand. We first analyze the three countries from an epidemiological perspective to characterize the impact of the pandemic and the strictness of the restrictions adopted. Then, we collect a total of 6 million posts from Facebook to describe user news consumption behaviors with respect to the reliability of such posts. Finally, we quantify the relationship between the number of posts published in each of the three countries and the number of confirmed cases, the strictness of the restrictions adopted, and the online news media coverage about the pandemic. Our results show that posts referring to reliable sources are consistently predominant in the news circulation, and that users engage more with reliable posts rather than with posts referring to questionable sources. Furthermore, our modelling results suggest that factors related to the epidemiological and informational ecosystems can serve as proxies to assess the evolution of the infodemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic is bringing disruptive effects on the healthcare systems, economy and social life of countries all over the world. Even though the elder portion of the population is the most severely affected by the COVID-19 disease, the counter-measures introduced so far by governments took into little account the age structure, with restrictions that act uniformly on the population irrespectively of age. In this paper, we introduce a SIRD model with age classes for studying the impact on the epidemic evolution of lockdown policies applied heterogeneously on the different age groups of the population. The proposed model is then applied to age-stratified COVID-19 Italian data. The simulation results suggest that control measures focused to specific age groups may bring benefits in terms of reduction of the overall mortality rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The COVID-19 epidemic in Italy has severely affected people aged more than 80, especially socially isolated. Aim of this paper is to assess whether a social and health program reduced mortality associated to the epidemic. Methods: An observational retrospective cohort analysis of deaths recorded among >80 years in three Italian cities has been carried out to compare death rate of the general population and "Long Live the Elderly!" (LLE) program. Parametric and non-parametric tests have been performed to assess differences of means between the two populations. A multivariable analysis to assess the impact of covariates on weekly mortality has been carried out by setting up a linear mixed model. Results: The total number of services delivered to the LLE population (including phone calls and home visits) was 34,528, 1 every 20 day per person on average, one every 15 days during March and April. From January to April 2019, the same population received one service every 41 days on average, without differences between January-February and March-April. The January-April 2020 cumulative crude death rate was 34.8‰ (9,718 deaths out of 279,249 individuals; CI95%: 34.1–35.5) and 28.9‰ (166 deaths out of 5,727 individuals; CI95%:24.7–33.7) for the general population and the LLE sample respectively. The general population weekly death rate increased after the 11th calendar week that was not the case among the LLE program participants (p<0.001). The Standardized Mortality Ratio was 0.83; (CI95%: 0.71–0.97). Mortality adjusted for age, gender, COVID-19 weekly incidence and prevalence of people living in nursing homes was lower in the LLE program than in the general population (p<0.001). Conclusions: LLE program is likely to limit mortality associated with COVID-19. Further studies are needed to establish whether it is due to the impact of social care that allows a better clients' adherence to the recommendations of physical distancing or to an improved surveillance of older adults that prevents negative outcomes associated with COVID-19. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Covid-19 pandemic has highlighted the importance of citizens' behaviors in the containment of the virus. Individuals might change their intention to adhere to public health prescriptions depending on various personal characteristics, including their own emotional status, which has been recognized to be a crucial psychological factor in orienting people's adherence to public health recommendation during emergency settings. In particular, it is crucial to support citizens' alliance with authorities and feeling of trust: public engagement is a concept that refers to the general involvement of citizens into public affairs which is generally considered an effective approach to enhance citizens' understanding of their crucial role in public affairs. However, so far there is no agreement on the metrics and indexes that should be used to measures public engagement during a health crisis. The aim of this paper is to validate a psychometric scale (PHEs-E), which intends to measure the readiness of individuals to adhere to the prescribed behavioral change to contain the emergency. Data were collected throughout the pandemic in Italy: in particular, five independent samples were recruited starting from March 2020 to March 2021. Results showed that the proposed measure has good psychometric characteristics. A general linear model was computed to assess the differences of public engagement across the different data points and among citizens with different sociodemographic characteristics. Correlations with other psychological constructs (i.e. Anxiety, Depression and Self-Efficacy) were also tested, showing that more engaged citizens have a lower level of anxiety and depression, and a higher self-efficacy. This study's findings indicate that individuals' characteristics may differentiate citizens' motivation to engage in public health behavioral recommendation to prevent the COVID-19 contagion. However the scale could be useful to perform a psychological monitoring of psychological readiness to engage in public health strategies to face critical events and settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scientific evidence plays an important role in the therapeutic decision-making process. What happens when physicians are forced to make therapeutic decisions under uncertainty? The absence of scientific guidelines at the beginning of a pandemic due to an unknown virus, such as COVID-19, could influence the perceived legitimacy of the application of non-evidence-based therapeutic approaches. This paper reports on a test of this hypothesis, in which we administered an ad hoc questionnaire to a sample of 64 Italian physicians during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy (April 2020). The questionnaire statements regarding the legitimacy of off-label or experimental drugs were framed according to three different scenarios (Normality, Emergency and COVID-19). Furthermore, as the perception of internal bodily sensations (i.e., interoception) modulates the decision-making process, we tested participants' interoceptive sensibility using the Multidimensional Assessment of Interoceptive Awareness (MAIA). The results showed that participants were more inclined to legitimate non-evidence-based therapeutic approaches in the COVID-19 and Emergency scenarios than the Normality scenario. We also found that scores on the MAIA Trusting subscale positively predicted this difference. Our findings demonstrate that uncertain medical scenarios, involving a dramatic increase in patient volume and acuity, can increase risk-taking in therapeutic decision-making. Furthermore, individual characteristics of health care providers, such as interoceptive ability, should be taken into account when constructing models to prevent the breakdown of healthcare systems in cases of severe emergency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic led to a significant reorganization of health services, potentially affecting the quality of care for major public health concerns such as proximal femoral fractures. This study aimed to investigate potential changes in the timing of various steps in the patient journey after a hip fracture during the pandemic in Piedmont, a region in Northern Italy. Methods: A retrospective study was conducted on the discharge records of patients aged 65 or older who were admitted for hip surgery following a femur fracture in 2019 and 2020. The study examined four-time steps: duration from hospital admission to surgery, length of hospital stay, interval between hospital discharge and admission to the rehabilitation facility, and duration of stay at the rehabilitation facility. To mitigate biases linked to sex and age factors, groups well-balanced across 2019 and 2020 were created using propensity score estimation. Results: The dataset consisted of two cohorts of 583 patients each for the years 2019 and 2020. The average duration from admission to surgery was approximately 1.9 days in both years, with 75% of patients undergoing surgery within 2 days of hospital admission. The average hospital stay reduced from 13.49 days in 2019 to 11.34 days in 2020. The gap between hospital discharge and admission to rehabilitation was approximately 10–12 days, and the average duration of stay at the rehabilitation facility was about 31.6 days. Discussion: The study indicates that healthcare systems can exhibit resilience and adaptability, even during a global pandemic, to ensure high-quality and safe standards of care. However, further long-term studies are needed to fully understand the pandemic's impact on primary health outcomes following hip replacement surgery and subsequent rehabilitation. The potential role of telemedicine in reducing the time between steps also warrants further investigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 outbreak has led to relevant changes in everyday life worldwide. One of these changes has been a rapid transition to and an increasing implementation of working from home (WH) modality. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of mandatory WH during the COVID-19 pandemic on lifestyle behaviors, Mediterranean diet adherence, body weight, and depression. An online cross-sectional survey was conducted in the early 2022 at the National Research Council of Italy using ad hoc questions and validated scales collecting information on physical activity, sedentary behavior, hobbies/pastimes, dietary habits including adherence to the Mediterranean diet, body weight, and depression during WH compared with before WH. 748 respondents were included in the study. An increased sedentary lifetime was reported by 48% of respondents; however, the subsample of workers who previously performed moderate physical activity intensified this activity. Body weight gain during WH was self-reported in 39.9% of respondents. Mediterranean diet adherence increased (p≪0.001) during WH compared with before WH. The average level of mental health did not record an overall variation; however, the proportion of subjects with mild and moderate depression increased (p = 0.006), while workers who reported values indicative of depression before the transition declared an improvement. These findings highlight health-related impact of WH during the COVID-19 pandemic that may inform future strategies and policies to improve employees' health and well-being. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus is believed to originate in China from where it spread to other parts of the world. The first cluster of diseased individuals was reported in China as early as in December 2019. It has also been well established that the virus stroke Italy later in January or in February 2020, hence distinctly after the outbreak in China. The work by Apolone et al. published in the Italian Medical Journal in November 2020 and retracted upon expression of concern on 22 March 2021, however propose that the virus could have stroke people already in September 2019, possibly following even earlier outbreak in China. By fitting an early part of the epidemic curve with the exponential and extrapolating it backwards, we could estimate the day-zero of the epidemic and calculated its confidence intervals in Italy and China. We also calculated how probable it is that Italy encountered the virus prior 1 January 2020. We determined an early portion of the epidemic curve representing unhindered exponential growth which fit the exponential model with high determination >0.97 in both countries. We conservatively suggest that the day-zero in China and Italy was 8 December 2019 (95% CI: 3 Dec., 20 Dec.) and 22 January 2020 (95% CI: 16 Jan., 29 Jan.), respectively. Given the uncertainty of the very early data in China and adjusting hence our model to fit the exponentially behaved data only, we can even admit that the pandemic originated through November 2019 (95% CI: 31 Oct., 22 Dec.). With high confidence (p <0.01) China encountered the virus prior Italy. We generally view any pre-pandemic presence of the virus in humans before November 2019 as very unlikely. The later established dynamics of the epidemics data suggests that the country of the origin was China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose a deterministic epidemic model to describe the transition between two variants of the same virus, through the combination of a series of realistic mechanisms such as partial cross immunity, waning immunity for vaccinated individuals and a novel data-based algorithm to describe the average immunological status of the population. The model is validated on the evolution of Covid-19 in Italy, during the period in which the transition between Delta and Omicron variant occurred, with very satisfactory agreement with the experimental data. According to our model, if the vaccine efficacy had been equal against Delta and Omicron variant infections, the transition would have been smoothed and the epidemic would have gone extinct. This circumstance confirms the fundamental role of vaccines in combating the epidemic, and the importance of identifying vaccines capable of intercepting new variants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While the World was busy mitigating the disastrous health and economic effects of the novel coronavirus, a less direct, but not less concerning peril has largely remained unexplored: the COVID-19 crisis may have disrupted some of the most fundamental social and political relationships in democratic societies. We interviewed samples resembling the national population of Denmark, Hungary, Italy and the US three times: in April, June and December of 2020 (14K observations). We show that multiple (but not all) measures of support for the political system decreased between April and December. Exploiting the panel setup, we demonstrate that within-respondent increases in indicators of pandemic fatigue (specifically, the perceived subjective burden of the pandemic and feelings of anomie) correspond to decreases in system support and increases in extreme anti-systemic attitudes. At the same time, we find no systematic trends in feelings of social solidarity, which are largely unaffected by changes in pandemic burden. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Italy was the first European country to be significantly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. The lack of similar previous experiences and the initial uncertainty regarding the new virus resulted in an unpredictable health crisis with 243,506 total confirmed cases and 34,997 deaths between February and July 2020. Despite the panorama of precariousness and the impelling calamity, the country successfully managed many aspects of the early stages of the health and socio-economic crisis. Nevertheless, many disparities can be identified at the regional level. The study aims to determine which aspects of regional management were considered more important by the citizens regarding economic and health criteria. A survey was designed to gather responses from the population on the Italian regions' response and provide a ranking of the regions. The 29-item online survey was provided to 352 individuals, and the collected data were analyzed using the Analytic Hierarchy Process methodology. The results show a general agreement in considering of greater relevance the healthcare policies rather than the economic countermeasures adopted by regional governments. Our analysis associated a weight of 64% to the healthcare criteria compared to the economic criteria with a weight of 36%. In addition to the results obtained from the Analytic Hierarchy Process, the sample's composition was analyzed to provide an overall assessment of the Italian regions. To do so, we collected objective data for each region and multiplied them by the overall weight obtained for each sub-criteria. Looking at the propensity to vaccination or the belief in a relation between COVID-19 and 5G according to age and educational qualification helps understand how public opinion is structured according to cultural and anthropological differences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article aims to understand the process through which scientific experts gain and maintain remarkable media visibility. It has been analysed a corpus of 213,875 articles published by the eight most important Italian newspapers across the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021. By exploring this process along the different phases of the management of the emergency in Italy, it was observed that some scientific experts achieve high media visibility—and sometimes notwithstanding their low academic reputation–thus becoming a sort of "media star". Scientific literature about the relationship between experts and media is considerable, nonetheless we found a lack of theoretical models able to analyse under which conditions experts are able to enter and to remain prominent in the media sphere. A Media Experts Evolutionary Model (MEEM) is proposed in order to analyze the main conditions under which experts can acquire visibility and how they can "survive" in media arena. We proceeded by analysing visibility of experts during SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and considering both their individual credentials previously acquired and the media environment processes of selection; MEEM acts hence as a combination of these two levels. Regarding the credentials, we accounted for i) institutional role/position, ii) previous media visibility, and iii) matches between scientific credentials and media competence. In our analysis, we collected evidence that high visibility in newspapers can be seen as evolutionary in the sense that some profiles—i.e. a particular configuration of credentials—are more adapt to specific media environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The fractional order SEIQRD compartmental model of COVID-19 is explored in this manuscript with six different categories in the Caputo approach. A few findings for the new model's existence and uniqueness criterion, as well as non-negativity and boundedness of the solution, have been established. When RCovid19<1 at infection-free equilibrium, we prove that the system is locally asymptotically stable. We also observed that RCovid 19<1, the system is globally asymptotically stable in the absence of disease. The main objective of this study is to investigate the COVID-19 transmission dynamics in Italy, in which the first case of Coronavirus infection 2019 (COVID-19) was identified on January 31st in 2020. We used the fractional order SEIQRD compartmental model in a fractional order framework to account for the uncertainty caused by the lack of information regarding the Coronavirus (COVID-19). The Routh-Hurwitz consistency criteria and La-Salle invariant principle are used to analyze the dynamics of the equilibrium. In addition, the fractional-order Taylor's approach is utilized to approximate the solution to the proposed model. The model's validity is demonstrated by comparing real-world data with simulation outcomes. This study considered the consequences of wearing face masks, and it was discovered that consistent use of face masks can help reduce the propagation of the COVID-19 disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: The aim of this study was to evaluate the incidence of deep vein thrombosis (DVT) of the lower limbs in patients hospitalized with COVID-19 pneumonia in a non-ICU setting according to the different waves of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Methods: Multicenter, prospective study of patients with COVID-19 pneumonia admitted to Internal Medicine units in Italy during the first (March-May 2020) and subsequent waves (November 2020 –April 2021) of the pandemic using a serial compression ultrasound (CUS) surveillance to detect DVT of the lower limbs. Results: Three-hundred-sixty-three consecutive patients were enrolled. The pooled incidence of DVT was 8%: 13.5% in the first wave, and 4.2% in the subsequent waves (p = 0.002). The proportion of patients with early (< 4 days) detection of DVT was higher in patients during the first wave with respect to those of subsequent waves (8.1% vs 1.9%; p = 0.004). Patients enrolled in different waves had similar clinical characteristics, and thrombotic risk profile. Less patients during the first wave received intermediate/high dose anticoagulation with respect to those of the subsequent waves (40.5% vs 54.5%; p = 0.005); there was a significant difference in anticoagulant regimen and initiation of thromboprophylaxis at home (8.1% vs 25.1%; p<0.001). Conclusions: In acutely ill patients with COVID-19 pneumonia, the incidence of DVT of the lower limbs showed a 3-fold decrease during the first with respect to the subsequent waves of the pandemic. A significant increase in thromboprophylaxis initiation prior to hospitalization, and the increase of the intensity of anticoagulation during hospitalization, likely, played a relevant role to explain this observation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The disruption caused by the Covid-19 pandemic generated an unprecedented situation, in which digital learning, in the form of Emergency Remote Teaching, was the only possible form of schooling. Italy soon decided to close schools as a measure to counter the spread of the virus. Although the Ministry of Education suggested general guidelines, school principals and teachers were autonomous in deciding how to best organise their educational activities. The first objective of our study is to identify subgroups of teachers, based on the use of digital tools during the Covid-19 emergency. Secondly, we explore how subgroups differ in terms of teachers' satisfaction and students' performance. To this end, we integrate information from an ad hoc survey completed by 1,407 primary and lower secondary teachers in Italy, with the students' standardised test scores provided by INVALSI. Data have been analysed through a 3-step latent class analysis. The findings reveal that one third of the teachers showed resistance to the use of digital technologies and focused mainly on asynchronous teaching. Teachers that used a broader set of digital instruments, instead, were more satisfied with their teaching practices. A more articulated use of technology for teaching activities was also positively associated with higher students' performance in 2021. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the association between objective and subjective indicators of economic uncertainty, generated by the COVID-19 health and economic crisis, and young Italians' fertility plans during the 2020. We use unique repeated cross-sectional data, collected at different time points during the pandemic (March and October/November 2020) together with pre-COVID data (2016). The data offer a standard fertility intention question pre- and during-COVID, and also a direct question on whether pre-COVID fertility plans have been confirmed, postponed or abandoned. In March 2020, individuals with more vulnerable occupations show a lower probability of intending to have a(nother) child in the short-term and a higher probability of abandoning their pre-COVID fertility plan; in October 2020 changes in fertility plans do not vary by employment condition. Instead, both in March and October, those who suffered from a negative income shock and those with negative expectations on their future income and occupation are more likely to abandon their pre-pandemic fertility plan compared to their better off counterparts. Overall, economic uncertainty seems to have similarly affected men and women's fertility intentions. Our findings point to the fact that the unequal economic consequences of the pandemic also produced and will produce heterogeneous effects on fertility intentions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using a unique survey of more than 7,000 respondents conducted immediately after the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy, we investigate potential drivers of the job satisfaction of healthcare workers. Relying on a representative sample of Italian physicians and nurses, we show that, in addition to personal characteristics (e.g., age, gender, health status), contextual factors (i.e., working conditions) play the leading role in explaining variation in the level of satisfaction (58%). In particular, working in a high-quality facility increases worker satisfaction and willingness to remain in the profession, and in the current medical specialization, while working in a province with a perceived shortage of medical personnel yields the opposite result. Direct experience with COVID-19 (e.g., having tested positive) is not significantly correlated with the level of job satisfaction, which is instead significantly reduced by changes in the working conditions caused by the health emergency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The unwillingness to share contacts is one of the least explored aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Here we report the factors associated with resistance to collaborate on contact tracing, based on the results of a nation-wide survey conducted in Italy in January-March 2021. Methods and findings: The repeated cross-sectional on-line survey was conducted among 7,513 respondents (mean age 45.7, 50.4% women) selected to represent the Italian adult population 18–70 years old. Two groups were defined based on the direct question response expressing (1) unwillingness or (2) willingness to share the names of individuals with whom respondents had contact. We selected 70% of participants (training data set) to produce several multivariable binomial generalized linear models and estimated the proportion of variation explained by the model by McFadden R2, and the model's discriminatory ability by the index of concordance. Then, we have validated the regression models using the remaining 30% of respondents (testing data set), and identified the best performing model by removing the variables based on their impact on the Akaike information criterion and then evaluating the model predictive accuracy. We also performed a sensitivity analysis using principal component analysis. Overall, 5.5% of the respondents indicated that in case of positive SARS-CoV-2 test they would not share contacts. Of note, this percentage varied from 0.8% to 46.5% depending on the answers to other survey questions. From the 139 questions included in the multivariable analysis, the initial model proposed 20 independent factors that were reduced to the 6 factors with only modest changes in the model performance. The 6-variables model demonstrated good performance in the training (c-index 0.85 and McFadden R2 criteria 0.25) and in the testing data set (93.3% accuracy, AUC 0.78, sensitivity 30.4% and specificity 97.4%). The most influential factors related to unwillingness to share contacts were the lack of intention to perform the test in case of contact with a COVID-19 positive individual (OR 5.60, 95% CI 4.14 to 7.58, in a fully adjusted multivariable analysis), disagreement that the government should be allowed to force people into self-isolation (OR 1.79, 95% CI 1.12 to 2.84), disagreement with the national vaccination schedule (OR 2.63, 95% CI 1.86 to 3.69), not following to the preventive anti-COVID measures (OR 3.23, 95% CI 1.85 to 5.59), the absence of people in the immediate social environment who have been infected with COVID-19 (1.66, 95% CI 1.24 to 2.21), as well as difficulties in finding or understanding the information about the infection or related recommendations. A limitation of this study is the under-representation of persons not participating in internet-based surveys and some vulnerable groups like homeless people, persons with disabilities or migrants. Conclusions: Our analysis revealed several groups that expressed unwillingness to collaborate on contact tracing. The identified patterns may play a principal role not only in the COVID-19 epidemic but also be important for possible future public health threats, and appropriate interventions for their correction should be developed and ready for the implementation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The Emergency Department (ED) services play a fundamental role in managing the accesses of potential Sars-Cov-2 cases. The aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of the SARS COV-2 pandemic on pediatric accesses in Emergency Department of Lazio Region. Methods: The population includes all pediatric accesses (0–17 years) in the ED of Lazio Region during 2019 and 2020. Accesses were characterized by age, week and calendar period. Four periods were defined: pre-lockdown, lockdown, post-lockdown and the second wave. The trend of ED accesses (total or for specific cause) in 2020 (by period and week) were compared to them occurred in 2019. ED visits have been described by absolute frequency and percentage variation. Percentage variation of adult was also reported to compare the trend in adult and young population. The Chi-square test was used to compare characteristics of admissions in 2019 and 2020. Results: There is a large decrease of pediatric accesses in 2020 compared to 2019 (-47%), especially for younger age-classes (1–2 years: -52.5% and 3–5 years: -50.5%). Pediatric visits to ED in 2020 decreased following the same trend of adults, but more drastically (-47% vs -30%). ED accesses for suspected COVID-19 pneumonia trend show different characteristics between children and adults: in adults there is an increase in 2020, especially during the 2nd wave period (+321%), in children there is a decrease starting from the lockdown period to the achievement of the lowest level in December 2020 (-98%). Conclusions: This descriptive study has identified a decrease of total pediatric accesses in ED in 2020 compared to 2019 and a different trend of accesses by adult and young population especially by cause. The monitoring of paediatric accesses could be a useful tool to analyse the trend of COVID-19 pandemic in Italy and to reprogramming of the healthcare offer according to criteria of clinical and organizational appropriateness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the COVID-19 pandemic, several countries have resorted to self-adaptive mechanisms that tailor non-pharmaceutical interventions to local epidemiological and health care indicators. These mechanisms reinforce the mutual influence between containment measures and the evolution of the epidemic. To account for such interplay, we develop an epidemiological model that embeds an algorithm mimicking the self-adaptive policy mechanism effective in Italy between November 2020 and March 2022. This extension is key to tracking the historical evolution of health outcomes and restrictions in Italy. Focusing on the epidemic wave that started in mid-2021 after the diffusion of Delta, we compare the functioning of alternative mechanisms to show how the policy framework may affect the trade-off between health outcomes and the restrictiveness of mitigation measures. Mechanisms based on the reproduction number are generally highly responsive to early signs of a surging wave but entail severe restrictions. The emerging trade-off varies considerably depending on specific conditions (e.g., vaccination coverage), with less-reactive mechanisms (e.g., those based on occupancy rates) becoming more appealing in favorable contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study used a subsample of a household panel study in Italy to track changes in mental health before the onset of COVID-19 and into the first lockdown period, from late April to early September 2020. The results of the random-effects regression analyses fitted on a sample of respondents aged 16 years and older (N = 897) proved that there was a substantial and statistically significant short-term deterioration in mental health (from 78,5 to 67,9; β = -10.5, p <.001; Cohen's d -.445), as measured by a composite index derived from the mental component of the 12-item Short-Form Health Survey (SF-12). The findings also showed heterogeneity in the COVID-related effects. On the one hand, evidence has emerged that the pandemic acted as a great leveller of pre-existing differences in mental health across people of different ages: the decrease was most pronounced among those aged 16–34 (from 84,2 to 66,5; β = -17.7, p <.001; Cohen's d -.744); however, the magnitude of change reduced as age increased and turned to be non-significant among individuals aged 70 and over. On the other hand, the COVID-19 emergency widened the mental health gender gap and created new inequalities, based on the age of the youngest child being taken care of within the household. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Healthcare workers have had the longest and most direct exposure to COVID-19 and consequently may suffer from poor mental health. We conducted one of the first repeated multi-country analysis of the mental wellbeing of medical doctors (n = 5,275) at two timepoints during the COVID-19 pandemic (June 2020 and November/December 2020) to understand the prevalence of anxiety and depression, as well as associated risk factors. Rates of anxiety and depression were highest in Italy (24.6% and 20.1%, June 2020), second highest in Catalonia (15.9% and 17.4%, June 2020), and lowest in the UK (11.7% and 13.7%, June 2020). Across all countries, higher risk of anxiety and depression symptoms were found among women, individuals below 60 years old, those feeling vulnerable/exposed at work, and those reporting normal/below-normal health. We did not find systematic differences in mental health measures between the two rounds of data collection, hence we cannot discard that the mental health repercussions of the pandemic are persistent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The first Covid-19 epidemic outbreak has enormously impacted the delivery of clinical healthcare and hospital management practices in most of the hospitals around the world. In this context, it is important to assess whether the clinical management of non-Covid patients has not been compromised. Among non-Covid cases, patients with Acute Myocardial Infarction (AMI) and stroke need non-deferrable emergency care and are the natural candidates to be studied. Preliminary evidence suggests that the time from onset of symptoms to emergency department (ED) presentation has significantly increased in Covid-19 times as well as the 30-day mortality and in-hospital mortality. Methods: We check, in a causal inference framework, the causal effect of the hospital's stress generated by Covid-19 pandemic on in-hospital mortality rates (primary end-point of the study) of AMI and stroke over several time-windows of 15-days around the implementation date of the State of Emergency restrictions for COVID-19 (March, 9th 2020) using two quasi-experimental approaches, regression-discontinuity design (RDD) and difference-in-regression-discontinuity (DRD) designs. Data are drawn from Spedali Civili of Brescia, one of the most hit provinces in Italy by Covid-19 during March and May 2020. Findings: Despite the potential adverse effects on expected mortality due to a longer time to hospitalization and staff extra-burden generated by the first wave of Covid-19, the AMI and stroke mortality rates are overall not statistically different during the first wave of Covid-19 than before the first peak. The obtained results provided by RDD models are robust also when we account for seasonality and unobserved factors with DRD models. Interpretation: The non-statistically significant impact on mortality rates for AMI and stroke patients provides evidence of the hospital ability to manage -with the implementation of a dual track organization- the simultaneous delivery of high-quality cares to both Covid and non-Covid patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How do people balance concerns for general health and economic outcomes during a pandemic? And, how does the communication of this trade-off affect individual preferences? We address these questions using a field experiment involving around 2000 students enrolled in a large university in Italy. We design four treatments where the trade-off is communicated using different combinations of a positive framing that focuses on protective strategies and a negative framing which refers to potential costs. We find that positive framing on the health side induces students to give greater relevance to the health dimension. The effect is sizeable and highly effective among many different audiences, especially females. Importantly, this triggers a higher level of intention to adhere to social distancing and precautionary behaviors. Moreover, irrespective of the framing, we find a large heterogeneity in students' preferences over the trade-off. Economics students and students who have directly experienced the economic impact of the pandemic are found to give greater value to economic outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Due to the many restrictions imposed during the COVID-19 emergency, the normal clinical activities have been stopped abruptly in view of limiting the circulation of the virus. The extraordinary containment measures have had a dramatic impact on the undertaking and follow-up of ophthalmic outpatients. Objective: In order to guarantee proper monitoring and routine care, the Pediatric Ophthalmology equipe of Rovereto Hospital (North-East of Italy) supported by the Competence Center on Digital Health TrentinoSalute4.0, designed and implemented a digital platform, TreC Oculistica, enabling teleophthalmology. We report our innovative—albeit restricted—experience aiming at testing and maximizing the efficacy of remote ophthalmic and orthoptic visits. Methods: A multidisciplinary team created the TreC Oculistica platform and defined a teleophthalmology protocol. The system consists of a clinician web interface and a patient mobile application. Clinicians can prescribe outpatients with the App and some preliminary measurements to be self-collected before the televisit. The App conveys the clinician's requests (i.e. measurements) and eases the share of the collected information in a secure digital environment, promoting a new health care workflow. Results: Four clinicians took part in the testing phase (2 ophthalmologists and 2 orthoptists) and recruited 37 patients (mostly pediatric) in 3 months. Thanks to a continuous feedback between the testing and the technical implementation, it has been possible to identify pros and cons of the implemented functionalities, considering possible improvements. Digital solutions such as TreC Oculistica advance the digitalization of the Italian health care system, promoting a structured and effective reorganization of the workload supported by digital systems. Conclusions: The study tested an innovative digital solution in the teleophthalmology context and represented the first experience within the Italian healthcare system. This solution opens up new possibilities and scenarios that can be effective not only during the pandemic, but also in the traditional management of public health services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spain was, together with Italy, the first European country severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. After one month of strict lockdown and eight weeks of partial restrictions, Spanish residents are expected to have revised some of their beliefs. We conducted a survey one year before the pandemic, at its outbreak and during de-escalation (N = 1706). Despite the lockdown, most respondents tolerated being controlled by authorities, and acknowledged the importance of group necessities over individual rights. However, de-escalation resulted in a belief change towards the intrusiveness of authorities and the preeminence of individual rights. Besides, transcendental beliefs–God answering prayers and the existence of an afterlife–declined after the outbreak, but were strengthened in the de-escalation. Results were strongly influenced by political ideology: the proportion of left-sided voters who saw authorities as intrusive greatly decreased, and transcendental beliefs prevailed among right-sided voters. Our results point to a polarization of beliefs based on political ideology as a consequence of the pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The confinement and lockdown imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic have produced restrictions in the lifestyle of Italian citizens with variations in their psychological well-being. The aim of the study was to identify changes and relationship with socio-demographic parameters. An online survey was administered to 1383 subjects (1007 females and 307 males) working in the University of Florence, Italy. Three validated questionnaires were used for the survey: the Global Physical Activity Questionnaire, the Med Diet Score and the Psychological General Well-Being Index-A. All the subjects were asked to complete the questionnaires twice, in order to attain a picture of the habits before and a later time point during confinement. Our results show that work-related physical activity was decreased, along with an increase in sedentary behaviour (from 07:22±03:20 to 08:49±03:41 h:min; p<0.001, ES = 0.38), whereas recreational physical activity was increased (vigorous exercise varied from 568.5 ± 838.6 to 833.7 ± 1263.0 METs; p<0.002, ES = 0.25). Eating habits changed according to the place where meals were eaten, with an increased habit for breakfast and snacks and a slight increase in alcohol consumption. Psychological well-being decreased (Index from 21.4±3.9 to 18.0±5.3; p<0.001, ES = 0.723), especially in terms of vitality and positive thinking. The socio-demographic variables affecting these variations were mostly represented by age, gender and working conditions: young age and self-employment conditions can be considered factors for the changes in daily habits induced by confinement that may affect psychological well-being. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the effectiveness of business shutdowns to contain the Covid-19 disease. In March 2020, Italy shut down operations in selected sectors of its economy. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find that municipalities with higher exposure to closed sectors experienced subsequently lower mortality rates. The implied life savings exceed 9,400 people over a period of less than a month. We also find that business closures exhibited rapidly diminishing returns and had large effects outside the closed businesses themselves, including spillovers to other municipalities. Overall, the results suggest business shutdowns are effective, but should be selectively implemented and centrally coordinated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During COVID-19 emergency the majority of health structures in Europe saturated or nearly saturated their availabilities already in the first weeks of the epidemic period especially in some regions of Italy and Spain. The aim of this study is to analyse the efficiency in the management of hospital beds before the COVID-19 outbreak at regional level in France, Germany, Italy and Spain. This analysis can indicate a reference point for future analysis on resource management in emergency periods and help hospital managers, emergency planners as well as policy makers to put in place a rapid and effective response to an emergency situation. The results of this study clearly underline that France and Germany could rely on the robust structural components of the hospital system, compared to Italy and Spain. Presumably, this might have had an impact on the efficacy in the management of the COVID-19 diffusion. In particular, the high availability of beds in the majority of the France regions paired with the low occupancy rate and high turnover interval led these regions to have a high number of available beds. Consider also that this country generally manages complex cases. A similar structural component is present in the German regions where the number of available beds is significantly higher than in the other countries. The impact of the COVID-19 was completely different in Italy and Spain that had to deal with a relevant large number of patients relying on a reduced number of both hospital beds and professionals. A further critical factor compared to France and Germany concerns the dissimilar distribution of cases across regions. Even if in these countries the hospital beds were efficiently managed, the concentration of hospitalized patients and the scarcity of beds have put pressure on the hospital systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic has spread worldwide, with considerable public health and socio-economic impacts that are seriously affecting health and safety of workers, as well as their employment stability. Italy was the first of many other western countries to implement extended containment measures. Health workers and others employed in essential sectors have continued their activity, reporting high infection rate with many fatalities. The epidemiological trend highlighted the importance of work as a substantial factor to consider both when implementing strategies aimed at containing the pandemic and shaping the lockdown mitigation strategy required for sustained economic recovery. To support the decision-making process, we have developed a strategy to predict the risk of infection by SARS-CoV-2 in the workplace based on the analysis of the working process and proximity between employees; risk of infection connected to the type of activity; involvement of third parties in the working processes and risk of social aggregation. We applied this approach to outline a risk index for each economic activity sector, with different levels of detail, also considering the impact on mobility of the working population. This method was implemented into the national epidemiological surveillance model in order to estimate the impact of re-activation of specific activities on the reproduction number. It has also been adopted by the national scientific committee set up by the Italian Government for action-oriented policy advice on the COVID-19 emergency in the post lockdown phase. This approach may play a key role for public health if associated with measures for risk mitigation in enterprises through strategies of business process re-engineering. Furthermore, it will make a contribution to reconsidering the organization of work, including also innovation and fostering the integration with the national occupational safety and health (OSH) system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The psychological impact of the Covid 19 pandemic on cancer patients, a population at higher risk of fatal consequences if infected, has been only rarely evaluated. This study was conducted at the Departments of Oncology of four hospitals located in the Verona area in Italy to investigate the psychological consequences of the pandemic on cancer patients under active anticancer treatments. A 13-item ad hoc questionnaire to evaluate the psychological status of patients before and during the pandemic was administered to 474 consecutive subjects in the time frame between April 27th and June 7th 2020. Among the 13 questions, 7 were considered appropriate to elaborate an Emotional Vulnerability Index (EVI) that allows to separate the population in two groups (low versus high emotional vulnerability) according to observed median values. During the emergency period, the feeling of high vulnerability was found in 246 patients (53%) and was significantly associated with the following clinical variables: female gender, being under chemotherapy treatment, age ≤ 65 years. Compared to the pre-pandemic phase, the feeling of vulnerability was increased in 41 patients (9%), remained stably high in 196 (42%) and, surprisingly, was reduced in 10 patients (2%). Overall, in a population characterized by an high level of emotional vulnerability the pandemic had a marginal impact and only a small proportion of patients reported an increase of their emotional vulnerability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

COVID-19 was declared a pandemic on March 12, 2020. Italy has been the most affected country in the world, right after China. Healthcare workers (HCWs) were among the hardest hit by this event from both a working and psychological point of view. The aim of this web-based cross-sectional study is to assess the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic on Italian Occupational Physicians' well-being and psychological distress, in relation to demographic and occupational characteristic, lifestyle and habits during the lockdown period. We conducted a web-based cross-sectional survey questionnaire from April 1 to April 21st, 2020. To evaluate the level of psychological distress and the level of well-being, the general Health Questionnaire-12 (GHQ-12) and the WHO-5 Wellbeing Index were utilized. Since the statistical assumptions were respected, we proceeded with an analysis of variance (ANOVA) to ascertain the differences between the averages of the scores of the GHQ-12. Doctors who live in the most affected regions have a prevalence of psychological distress higher than their colleagues from the rest of Italy. ANOVA shows significant differences relating to the female gender, and to the life changes provoked by the lockdown for example not feeling sheltered at home or suffering from loneliness. This study showed a high prevalence of psychological distress in occupational physicians. To prevent the occurrence of mental disorders among Occupational Physicians, it is urgent to put in place policies of psychological support and well-being preservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic and government imposed social restrictions like lockdown exposed most individuals to an unprecedented stress, increasing mental health disorders worldwide. We explored subjective cognitive functioning and mental health changes and their possible interplay related to COVID-19-lockdown. We also investigated potential risk factors to identify more vulnerable groups. Across Italy, 1215 respondents completed our Qualtrics-based online-survey during the end of a seven to 10-week imposed lockdown and home confinement (from April 29 to May 17, 2020). We found subjective cognitive functioning and mental health severely changed in association with the lockdown. Under government regulations, cognitive complaints were mostly perceived in routine tasks involving attention, temporal orientation and executive functions—with no changes in language abilities. A paradoxical effect was observed for memory, with reduced forgetfulness compared to pre-lockdown. We found higher severity and prevalence of depression, anxiety disorders, abnormal sleep, appetite changes, reduced libido and health anxiety: with mild-to-severe depression and anxiety prevalence climbing to 32 and 36 percent, respectively, under restrictions. Being female, under 45 years, working from home or being underemployed were all identified as relevant risk factors for worsening cognition and mental health. Frequent consumers of COVID-19 mass media information or residents in highly infected communities reported higher depression and anxiety symptoms, particularly hypochondria in the latter. If similar restrictions are reimposed, governments must carefully consider these more vulnerable groups in their decisions, whilst developing effective global and long-term responses to the cognitive and mental health challenges of this type of pandemic; as well as implementing appropriate psychological interventions with specific guidelines: particularly regarding exposure to COVID-19 mass-media reports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) is an emergent disease that initially had no historical data to guide scientists on predicting/ forecasting its global or national impact over time. The ability to predict the progress of this pandemic has been crucial for decision making aimed at fighting this pandemic and controlling its spread. In this work we considered four different statistical/time series models that are readily available from the 'forecast' package in R. We performed novel applications with these models, forecasting the number of infected cases (confirmed cases and similarly the number of deaths and recovery) along with the corresponding 90% prediction interval to estimate uncertainty around pointwise forecasts. Since the future may not repeat the past for this pandemic, no prediction model is certain. However, any prediction tool with acceptable prediction performance (or prediction error) could still be very useful for public-health planning to handle spread of the pandemic, and could policy decision-making and facilitate transition to normality. These four models were applied to publicly available data of the COVID-19 pandemic for both the USA and Italy. We observed that all models reasonably predicted the future numbers of confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries of COVID-19. However, for the majority of the analyses, the time series model with autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and cubic smoothing spline models both had smaller prediction errors and narrower prediction intervals, compared to the Holt and Trigonometric Exponential smoothing state space model with Box-Cox transformation (TBATS) models. Therefore, the former two models were preferable to the latter models. Given similarities in performance of the models in the USA and Italy, the corresponding prediction tools can be applied to other countries grappling with the COVID-19 pandemic, and to any pandemics that can occur in future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study we present the first comprehensive analysis of the spatio-temporal differences in excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy. We used a population-based design on all-cause mortality data, for the 7,904 Italian municipalities. We estimated sex-specific weekly mortality rates for each municipality, based on the first four months of 2016–2019, while adjusting for age, localised temporal trends and the effect of temperature. Then, we predicted all-cause weekly deaths and mortality rates at municipality level for the same period in 2020, based on the modelled spatio-temporal trends. Lombardia showed higher mortality rates than expected from the end of February, with 23,946 (23,013 to 24,786) total excess deaths. North-West and North-East regions showed one week lag, with higher mortality from the beginning of March and 6,942 (6,142 to 7,667) and 8,033 (7,061 to 9,044) total excess deaths respectively. We observed marked geographical differences also at municipality level. For males, the city of Bergamo (Lombardia) showed the largest percent excess, 88.9% (81.9% to 95.2%), at the peak of the pandemic. An excess of 84.2% (73.8% to 93.4%) was also estimated at the same time for males in the city of Pesaro (Central Italy), in stark contrast with the rest of the region, which does not show evidence of excess deaths. We provided a fully probabilistic analysis of excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic at sub-national level, suggesting a differential direct and indirect effect in space and time. Our model can be used to help policy-makers target measures locally to contain the burden on the health-care system as well as reducing social and economic consequences. Additionally, this framework can be used for real-time mortality surveillance, continuous monitoring of local temporal trends and to flag where and when mortality rates deviate from the expected range, which might suggest a second wave of the pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the face of the rapid evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic, healthcare professionals on the frontline are in urgent need of frequent updates in the accomplishment of their practice. Hence, clinicians started to search for prompt, valid information on sources that are parallel to academic journals. Aim of this work is to investigate the extent of this phenomenon. We administered an anonymous online cross-sectional survey to 645 Italian clinicians. Target of the survey were all medical figures potentially involved in the management of COVID-19 cases. 369 questionnaires were returned. 19.5% (n = 72) of respondents were younger than 30 years-old; 49,3% (n = 182) worked in Infectious Diseases, Internal Medicine or Respiratory Medicine departments, 11.5% (n = 42) in Intensive Care Unit and 7.4% (n = 27) were general practitioner. 70% (n = 261) of respondents reported that their use of social media to seek medical information increased during the pandemic. 39.3% (n = 145) consistently consulted Facebook groups and 53.1% (n = 196) Whatsapp chats. 47% (n = 174) of respondents reported that information shared on social media had a consistent impact on their daily practice. In the present study, we found no difference in social media usage between age groups or medical specialties. Given the urgent need for scientific update during the present pandemic, these findings may help understanding how clinicians access new evidences and implement them in their daily practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]