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In this paper, we aim to establish a mathematical model to design a maximizing social welfare intervention mechanism of healthcare service goods in China. The intervention mechanism is helpful to facilitate the adoption of the healthcare service goods. We consider a research problem that regulates the supply chain system for healthcare service goods by an intervention mechanism, and two intervention strategies composed of demand-growth strategy and subsidy strategy are used to the combination of intervention mechanism. Then this paper presents a new method based on fuzzy set and bilevel programming to design the intervention mechanism. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model, we conduct a case study for Wudang personalized health package and verify our model by the specific result analysis, the result indicates that our joint intervention mechanism is helpful to achieve the target and increase social welfare. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent advances in the efficacy and tolerability of hepatitis C treatments and the introduction of a universal access scheme for the new Direct Acting Antiviral (DAA) therapies in March 2016, has resulted in a rapid increase in the uptake of hepatitis C treatment in Australia. Despite these positive developments, recent data suggest a plateauing of treatment numbers, indicating that more work may need to be done to identify and address ongoing barriers to hepatitis C treatment access and uptake. This paper aims to contribute to our understanding of the ongoing barriers to DAA therapies, with a focus on people who inject drugs. The paper draws on participant interview data from a qualitative research study based on a participatory research design that included a peer researcher with direct experience of both hepatitis C DAA treatment and injecting drug use at all stages of the research process. The study’s findings show that residual barriers to DAA treatment exist at personal, provider and system levels and include poor venous access, DAA treatments not considered ‘core-business’ by opioid substitution treatment (OST) providers, and patients having to manage multiple health and social priorities that interfere with keeping medical appointments such as childcare and poor access to transport services. Further, efforts to increase access to and uptake of DAA hepatitis C treatment over time will require a focus on reducing stigma and discrimination towards people who inject drugs as this remains as a major barrier to care for many people. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) incidence in South Africa is among the highest globally. Initial loss to follow-up (ILFU), defined as not starting on TB treatment within 28 days of testing positive, is undermining control efforts. We assessed the feasibility, acceptability, and potential of a mHealth application to reduce ILFU. Methods: An mHealth application was developed to capture patients TB investigation data, provide results and monitor treatment initiation. This was implemented in two primary health clinics (PHC) in inner-city Johannesburg. Feasibility was assessed by comparing documentation of personal details, specimen results for same individuals during implementation period (paper register and Mhealth application). Effectiveness was assessed by comparing proportion of patients with results within 48 hours, and proportion started on treatment within 28 days of testing TB positive during pre- implementation (paper register) and implementation (mHealth application) periods. In-depth interviews with patients and providers were conducted to assess acceptability of application. Results: Pre-implementation, 457 patients were recorded in paper registers [195 (42.7%) male, median age 34 years (interquartile range IQR (28–40), 45 (10.5%) sputum Xpert positive]. During implementation, 319 patients were recorded in paper register and the mHealth application [131 (41.1%) male, median age 32 years (IQR 27–38), 33 (10.3%) sputum Xpert positive]. The proportion with complete personal details: [mHealth 95.0% versus paper register 94.0%, (p = 0.54)] and proportion with documented results: [mHealth 97.4% versus paper register 97.8%, (p = 0.79)] were not different in the two methods. The proportion of results available within 48 hours: [mHealth 96.8% versus paper register 68.6%), (p <0.001)], and the proportion on treatment within 28 days [mHealth 28/33 (84.8%) versus paper register 30/44 (68.2%), (p = 0.08)] increased during implementation but was not statistically significant. In-depth interviews showed that providers easily integrated the mHealth application into routine TB investigation and patients positively received the delivery of results via text message. Time from sputum collection to TB treatment initiation decreased from 4 days (pre-implementation) to 3 days but was not statistically significant. Conclusions: We demonstrated that implementation of the mHealth application was feasible, acceptable to health care providers and patients, and has potential to reduce the time to TB treatment initiation and ILFU in PHC settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The 2014 outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa was the largest in history. Starting in September 2014, International Medical Corps (IMC) operated five Ebola treatment units (ETUs) in Sierra Leone and Liberia. This paper explores how future infectious disease outbreak facilities in resource-limited settings can be planned, organized, and managed by analyzing data collected on water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) and infection prevention control (IPC) protocols. Design/Methodology/Approach: We conducted a retrospective cohort study by analyzing WASH/IPC activity data routinely recorded on paper forms or white boards at ETUs during the outbreak and later merged into a database from two IMC-run ETUs in Sierra Leone between December 2014 and December 2015. Findings: The IMC WASH/IPC database contains data from over 369 days. Our results highlight parameters key to designing and maintaining an ETU. High concentration chlorine solution usage was highly correlated with both daily patient occupancy and high-risk zone staff entries; low concentration chlorine usage was less well explained by these measures. There is high demand for laundering and disinfecting of personal protective equipment (PPE) on a daily basis and approximately 1 (0–4) piece of PPE is damaged each day. Research limitations/Implications: Lack of standardization in the type and format of data collected at ETUs made constructing the WASH/IPC database difficult. However, the data presented here may help inform humanitarian response operations in future epidemics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ICD-10(International Classification of Diseases 10th revision) is a classification of a disease, symptom, procedure, or injury. Diseases are often described in patients’ medical records with free texts, such as terms, phrases and paraphrases, which differ significantly from those used in ICD-10 classification. This paper presents an improved approach based on the Longest Common Subsequence (LCS) and semantic similarity for automatic Chinese diagnoses, mapping from the disease names given by clinician to the disease names in ICD-10. LCS refers to the longest string that is a subsequence of every member of a given set of strings. The proposed method of improved LCS in this paper can increase the accuracy of processing in Chinese disease mapping. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

TB is rated as one of the world’s deadliest diseases and South Africa ranks 9th out of the 22 countries with hardest hit of TB. Although many pieces of research have been carried out on this subject, this paper steps further by inculcating past knowledge into the model, using Bayesian approach with informative prior. Bayesian statistics approach is getting popular in data analyses. But, most applications of Bayesian inference technique are limited to situations of non-informative prior, where there is no solid external information about the distribution of the parameter of interest. The main aim of this study is to profile people living with TB in South Africa. In this paper, identical regression models are fitted for classical and Bayesian approach both with non-informative and informative prior, using South Africa General Household Survey (GHS) data for the year 2014. For the Bayesian model with informative prior, South Africa General Household Survey dataset for the year 2011 to 2013 are used to set up priors for the model 2014. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The report of the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) for World AIDS Day 2014 highlighted a Fast-Track Strategy that sets ambitious treatment and prevention targets to reduce global HIV incidence to manageable levels by 2020 and end the AIDS epidemic by 2030. The 90-90-90 treatment targets for 2020 call for 90% of people living with HIV to know their HIV status, 90% of people who know their status to receive treatment, and 90% of people on HIV treatment to be virally suppressed. This paper examines how scale-up of voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) services in four priority countries in sub-Saharan Africa could contribute to ending the AIDS epidemic by 2030 in the context of concerted efforts to close the treatment gap, and what the impact of VMMC scale-up would be if the 90-90-90 treatment targets were not completely met. Methods: Using the Goals module of the Spectrum suite of models, this analysis modified ART (antiretroviral treatment) scale-up coverage from base scenarios to reflect the 90-90-90 treatment targets in four countries (Lesotho, Malawi, South Africa, and Uganda). In addition, a second scenario was created to reflect viral suppression levels of 75% instead of 90%, and a third scenario was created in which the 90-90-90 treatment targets are reached in women, with men reaching more moderate coverage levels. Regarding male circumcision (MC) coverage, the analysis examined both a scenario in which VMMCs were assumed to stop after 2015, and one in which MC coverage was scaled up to 90% by 2020 and maintained at 90% thereafter. Results: Across all four countries, scaling up VMMC is projected to provide further HIV incidence reductions in addition to those achieved by reaching the 90-90-90 treatment targets. If viral suppression levels only reach 75%, scaling up VMMC leads to HIV incidence reduction to nearly the same levels as those achieved with 90-90-90 without VMMC scale-up. If only women reach the 90-90-90 targets, scaling up VMMC brings HIV incidence down to near the levels projected with 90-90-90 without VMMC scale-up. Regarding cost, scaling up VMMC increases the annual costs during the scale-up phase, but leads to lower annual costs after the MC coverage target is achieved. Conclusions: The scenarios modeled in this paper show that the highly durable and effective male circumcision intervention increases epidemic impact levels over those of treatment-only strategies, including the case if universal levels of viral suppression in men and women are not achieved by 2020. In the context of 90-90-90, prioritizing continued successful scale-up of VMMC increases the possibility that future generations will be free not only of AIDS but also of HIV. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Developing countries still struggle with late detection and mortality from pertussis. A review of clinical case definitions is necessary for early disease detection. This paper aimed to study possible clinical characteristics for earlier pertussis detection in a sporadic setting. Methods: We conducted a retrospective review of medical and laboratory records in a general paediatric ward of a district hospital in a developing country. Inclusion criteria were all children hospitalised with nasopharyngeal swab taken for Bordetella pertussis. We compared sensitivity and specificity of World Health Organization diagnostic criteria with other clinical characteristics. Polymerase chain reaction Bordetella pertussis was the gold standard used. Results: Out of 207 eligible admissions, the study retrieved 128 complete records. Approximately half of the children were less than 3 months old. The World Health Organization diagnostic criteria had a low sensitivity (15%), but high specificity (92%). In comparison, combinations that included paroxysmal cough, ill contact and facial congestion had higher sensitivity. Increasing cough duration improved specificity while compromising sensitivity. Conclusion: Several clinical characteristics such as paroxysmal cough, facial congestion and a history of ill contact have potential for early clinical detection. Conventional emphasis on cough duration may hamper early detection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Addressing critical global health issues, such as antimicrobial resistance, infectious disease outbreaks, and natural disasters, requires strong coordination and management across sectors. The One Health approach is the integrative effort of multiple sectors working to attain optimal health for people, animals, and the environment, and is increasingly recognized by experts as a means to address complex challenges. However, practical application of the One Health approach has been challenging. The One Health Systems Mapping and Analysis Resource Toolkit (OH-SMART) introduced in this paper was designed using a multistage prototyping process to support systematic improvement in multi-sectoral coordination and collaboration to better address complex health concerns through an operational, stepwise, and practical One Health approach. To date, OH-SMART has been used to strengthen One Health systems in 17 countries and has been deployed to revise emergency response frameworks, improve antimicrobial resistance national action plans and create multi agency infectious disease collaboration protocols. OH-SMART has proven to be user friendly, robust, and capable of fostering multi-sectoral collaboration and complex system-wide problem solving. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecoregionalization is the process by which a territory is classified in similar areas according to specific environmental and climatic factors. The climate and the environment strongly influence the presence and distribution of vectors responsible for significant human and animal diseases worldwide. In this paper, we developed a map of the eco-climatic regions of Italy adopting a data-driven spatial clustering approach using recent and detailed spatial data on climatic and environmental factors. We selected seven variables, relevant for a broad set of human and animal vector-borne diseases (VBDs): standard deviation of altitude, mean daytime land surface temperature, mean amplitude and peak timing of the annual cycle of land surface temperature, mean and amplitude of the annual cycle of greenness value, and daily mean amount of rainfall. Principal Component Analysis followed by multivariate geographic clustering using the k-medoids technique were used to group the pixels with similar characteristics into different ecoregions, and at different spatial resolutions (250 m, 1 km and 2 km). We showed that the spatial structure of ecoregions is generally maintained at different spatial resolutions and we compared the resulting ecoregion maps with two datasets related to Bluetongue vectors and West Nile Disease (WND) outbreaks in Italy. The known characteristics of Culicoides imicola habitat were well captured by 2/22 specific ecoregions (at 250 m resolution). Culicoides obsoletus/scoticus occupy all sampled ecoregions, according to its known widespread distribution across the peninsula. WND outbreak locations strongly cluster in 4/22 ecoregions, dominated by human influenced landscape, with intense cultivations and complex irrigation network. This approach could be a supportive tool in case of VBDs, defining pixel-based areas that are conducive environment for VBD spread, indicating where surveillance and prevention measures could be prioritized in Italy. Also, ecoregions suitable to specific VBDs vectors could inform entomological surveillance strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: HIV self-testing (HIVST) offers a useful addition to HIV testing services and enables individuals to test privately. Despite recommendations to the contrary, repeat HIV testing is frequent among people already on anti-retroviral treatment (ART) and there are concerns that oral self-testing might lead to false negative results. A study was conducted in Khayelitsha, South Africa, to assess feasibility and uptake of HIVST and linkage-to-care following HIVST. Methods: Participants were recruited at two health facilities from 1 March 2016 to 31 March 2017. People under 18 years, or with self-reported previously-diagnosed HIV infection, were excluded. Participants received an OraQuick Rapid HIV-1/2 Antibody kit, and reported their HIVST results by pre-paid text message (SMS) or by returning to the facility. Those not reporting within 7 days were contacted by phone. Electronic and paper-based clinical and laboratory records were retrospectively examined for all participants to identify known HIV outcomes, after matching for name, date of birth, and sex. These findings were compared with self-reported HIVST results where available. Results: Of 639 participants, 401 (62.8%) self-reported a negative HIVST result, 27 (4.2%) a positive result, and 211 (33.0%) did not report. The record search identified that of the 401 participants self-reporting a negative HIVST result, 19 (4.7%) were already known to be HIV positive; of the 27 self-reporting positive, 12 (44%) were known HIV positive. Overall, records showed 57/639 (8.9%) were HIV positive of whom 39/57 (68.4%) had previously-diagnosed infection and 18/57 (31.6%) newly-diagnosed infection. Of the 428 participants who self-reported a result, 366 (85.5%) reported by SMS. Conclusions: HIVST can improve HIV testing uptake and linkage to care. SMS is acceptable for reporting HIVST results but negative self-reports by participants may be unreliable. Use of HIVST by individuals on ART is frequent despite recommendations to the contrary and its implications need further consideration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Invasive cervical cancer is the most prevalent cancer among women in Sub-Saharan Africa. In 2013, the World Health Organization (WHO) emitted recommendations to start Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy (HAART) regardless of CD4 count. Although HAART has been shown to reduce the prevalence of high-risk human papillomavirus (HR-HPV) genotypes, it is unclear whether it confers a protective effect specifically for HPV 16. This review summarizes the existing evidence regarding the effect of HAART on HPV 16 infection, as this genotype may not be influenced by immunity level and explores its implications for Sub Saharan Africa. A comprehensive literature review was undertaken and quality assessment was carried out on the selected papers. Four cohort studies and three cross-sectional studies were identified for which the overall quality score assessment ranged from weak/moderate (Score of 1.8) to strong (Score of 3). The evidence yielded by our review was conflicting. Thus, the high heterogeneity between study populations and results did not allow us to draw any firm conclusions as to whether HAART has an impact on HPV 16 acquisition/prevalence. As only three studies were conducted in Africa, there are insufficient grounds for solid comparison between geographic regions. In light of inadequate data, HPV unvaccinated women on HAART should still receive more frequent follow-up. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The proportion of women attending four or more antenatal care (ANC) visits is widely used for monitoring, but provides limited information on quality of care. Effective coverage metrics, assessing if ANC interventions are completely delivered, can identify critical gaps in healthcare service delivery. We aimed to measure coverage of at least one screening and effective coverage of ANC interventions in the public health system in the West Bank, Palestine, and to explore associations between infrastructure-related and maternal sociodemographic variables and effective coverage. Methods: We used data from paper-based clinical records of 1369 pregnant women attending ANC in 17 primary healthcare clinics. Infrastructure-related variables were derived from a 2014 national inventory assessment of clinics. Sample size calculations were made to detect effective coverage ranging 40–60% with a 2–3% margin of error, clinics were selected by probability sampling. We calculated inverse probability weighted percentages of: effective coverage of appropriate number and timing of screenings of ANC interventions; and coverage of at least one screening. Results: Coverage of one screening and effective coverage of ANC interventions were notably different for screening for: hypertension (98% vs. 10%); fetal growth abnormalities (66% vs. 6%); anemia (93% vs. 14%); gestational diabetes (93% vs. 34%), and antenatal ultrasound (74% vs. 24%). Clinics with a laboratory and ultrasound generally performed better in terms of effective coverage, and maternal sociodemographic factors had no associations with effective coverage estimates. Only 13% of the women attended ANC visits according to the recommended national schedule, driving effective coverage down. Conclusion: Indicators for ANC monitoring and their definitions can have important consequences for quantifying health system performance and identifying issues with care provision. To achieve more effective coverage in public primary care clinics in the West Bank, efforts should be made to improve care provision according to prescribed guidelines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Leprosy remains a disease of concern in many countries including Nepal. To achieve the target of elimination, the WHO strategy promotes comprehensive education of patients, healthcare workers (HCWs), and the public on leprosy-related issues. However most educational programs are based on the concerns of HCWs and not on patients’ needs. The objective of this paper is to explore the educational needs of leprosy affected patients in Nepal and compare them to the needs perceived by HCWs. Methodology/principal findings: Semi directive interviews were conducted with patients and HCWs. The data was analyzed using the basic interpretative qualitative framework. The study was conducted in two leprosy referral centers, one university hospital and one primary health care center: Lalgadh Leprosy Hospital and Services Centre, Anandaban Hospital and its satellite clinic in Patan, B. P. Koirala Institute of Health Sciences in Dharan, and the Itahari primary health care centre. The results show that there remains a lack of knowledge regarding the disease (origins, manifestations, prevention and treatment) contributing to late care seeking behavior and high levels of stigma, with an important psychological and financial stress for patients. All of the HCWs displayed a good understanding of patients’ difficulties and needs and acknowledged the key role of patient education. However, they expressed several challenges in managing patients due to lack of time, human resources and training in patient education. Conclusions/significance: Further efforts need to be made to increase patients’ general knowledge of the disease in order to motivate them to seek healthcare earlier and change their perception of the disease to reduce stigma. HCWs need proper training in patient education and counseling for them to acquire the necessary skills required to address the different educational needs of their patients. The use of lay and peer counselors would be an option to address the workload and lack of time expressed by HCWs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The strategy of the “Belt and Road” initiative aims not only to promote the cooperation and the development of economic trade, but also to boost the integration and development in multiple fields—especially in the field of health. This paper explores the health levels of member-states in the Belt and Road initiative from the perspective of regional differences and spatial patterns. Data from the 68 member-states in the Belt and Road initiative were selected from the statistical data on disease and socioeconomics in all countries from the 2015 publication by the World Bank and the World Health Organization. Health indicators that can reflect health levels of member states were selected. Moran’s I and Getis-Ord Gi* were used to analyze the spatial clustering and hot/cold spots of the health status. After that a novel spatial statistical method “geographical detector” was used to analysis the spatial stratified heterogeneity of the selected health indicators. The result showed that the health level of the member states fluctuated around the world average and varied greatly within the member states. The health status of the member states showed spatial clustering, and the q-statistics of the geographical detector confirmed that the health status demonstrated statistically significant spatial heterogeneity for different continent the member states reside. In general, member states in Europe and Oceania demonstrated higher health status, while those in South Asia, Southeast Asia, Africa and part of Middle East have lower health status. In particular, special attention should be paid to control communicable diseases in African member states. Different regions and member states face different kinds of health threats in various degrees. Member states should strengthen health cooperation between themselves and work closely with other countries to make the “belt and road” a healthy road. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In 2015, the World Health Organization (WHO) updated the global methodology for assessing and reducing missed opportunities for vaccination (MOV), when eligible children have contact with the health system but are not vaccinated. This paper presents the results of two pilot assessments conducted in Chad and Malawi. Methods: Using the ten-step global WHO MOV strategy, we purposively selected districts and health facilities, with non-probabilistic sampling of <24 month old children for exit interviews of caregivers and self-administered knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) surveys of health workers. MOV were calculated based on a child’s documented vaccination history (i.e., from a home-based record (HBR) or a health facility vaccination register), including selected vaccines in the national schedule. Results: Respondents included caregivers of 353 children in Chad and of 580 children in Malawi. Among those with documented vaccination history, 82% (195/238) were eligible for vaccination in Chad and 47% (225/483) in Malawi. Among eligible children, 51% (99/195) in Chad, and 66% (149/225) in Malawi had one or more MOV on the survey date. During non-vaccination visits, 77% (24/31) of children eligible for vaccination in Chad and 92% (119/129) in Malawi had a MOV compared to 46% (75/164) and 31% (30/96) during vaccination visits, respectively. Among health workers, 92% in Chad and 88% in Malawi were unable to correctly identify valid contraindications for vaccination. Conclusion: The new MOV tool was able to characterize the type and potential causes of MOV. In both countries, the findings of the assessments point to two major barriers to full vaccination of eligible children—a lack of coordination between vaccination and curative health services and incomplete vaccination during vaccination visits. National immunization programs should explore tailored efforts to improve health worker practices and to increase vaccine delivery by making better use of existing health service contacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agent-based models are a tool that can be used to better understand the dynamics of an infectious disease outbreak. An infectious disease outbreak is influenced by many factors including vaccination or immunity levels, population density, and the age structure of the population. We hypothesize that these factors along with interactions of factors and the actions of individuals would lead to outbreaks of different size and severity even in two towns that appear similar on paper. Thus, it is necessary to implement a model that is able to capture these interactions and the actions of individuals. Using openly available data we create a data-driven agent-based model to simulate the spread of an airborne infectious disease in an Irish town. Agent-based models have been known to produce results that include the emergence of patterns and behaviours that are not directly programmed into the model. Our model is tested by simulating an outbreak of measles that occurred in Schull, Ireland in 2012. We simulate the same outbreak in 33 different towns and look at the correlations between the model results and the town characteristics (population, area, vaccination rates, age structure) to determine if the results of the model are affected by interactions of those town characteristics and the decisions on the agents in the model. As expected our results show that the outbreaks are not strongly correlated with any of the main characteristics of the towns and thus the model is most likely capturing such interactions and the agent-based model is successful in capturing the differences in the outbreaks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Vaccine hesitancy has been little studied in low- and middle-income countries but is a potential concern because vaccine refusal may increase the burden of infectious diseases and impede control efforts. The aim of this study was to compare vaccine hesitancy between locals, long-time city residents, and non-locals, who have more recently moved to the city from either other urban or rural areas, in Shanghai, China. Methods: Parents of infants ≤3 months of age were surveyed at immunization clinics in Shanghai, China. Participants completed a paper questionnaire utilizing the 10-item Vaccine Hesitancy Scale, which was developed by the World Health Organization Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on Immunization. Items were grouped based on internal consistency, and regressed onto demographic variables using a negative binomial model. Results: In total, 1,188 (92.5%) individuals participated. For most items on the scale, parents expressed positive beliefs about vaccines. However, about half of parents somewhat or strongly agreed that new vaccines carried more risks than older vaccines, and 71.6% somewhat or strongly agreed that they were concerned about serious adverse effects. Seven items from the Vaccine Hesitancy Scale were highly correlated and mapped onto “lack of confidence”; the other three items were analysed separately. Compared to mothers, fathers had less lack of confidence (β: -0.06, 95% CI: -0.12, -0.01), and individuals living in the outer suburbs (β: 0.13, 95% CI: 0.01, 0.25) and rural non-locals (β: 0.10, 95% CI: 0.02, 0.18) had greater lack of confidence in vaccines compared to their urban or local counterparts, respectively. Discussion: Shanghai parents professed confidence in certain vaccine benefits, but vaccine messaging could focus on addressing misconceptions about vaccines for diseases no longer common, newer vaccines, and adverse effects associated with vaccination. These messages may need to be separately tailored to locals and non-locals, who have differing concerns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Following the emergence of H7N9 influenza in March 2013, local animal and public health authorities in China have been closing live bird markets as a measure to try to control the H7N9 influenza epidemic. The role of live bird market (LBM) closure on the spread of N7N9 influenza following the closure of LBMs during March to May 2013 (the first wave) and October 2013 to March 2014 (the second wave) is described in this paper. Different provinces implemented closure actions at different times, and intensive media reports on H7N9 in different provinces started at different times. Local broiler prices dropped dramatically in places with outbreaks and more live chickens were transported to other LBMs in neighboring areas without human cases from infected areas when live bird markets were being closed. There were six clusters of human infection from March to May 2013 and October 2013 to March 2014 and there may have been intensive poultry transportation among cluster areas. These findings provide evidence that the closure of LBMs in early waves of H7N9 influenza had resulted in expansion of H7N9 infection to uninfected areas. This suggests that provincial authorities in inland provinces should be alert to the risks of sudden changes in movement patterns for live birds after LBM closure or increased publicity about LBM closure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we present a family of models that allows us to estimate egos’ unobserved action dispositions from a joint behavioural outcome of a dyadic social interaction process of both egos’ and alters’ action dispositions. The method is put to test on a data set containing two different types of dyadic activities of high relevance for the spread of sexually transmitted infections (STI), condom use and anal sex. The data consists of individuals older than 15 years old who visited one of the nine youth clinics in the Vastra Gotaland region of Sweden between February 2010 and March 2011 for STI testing. This is hence a group of special interest for STI interventions. We cannot find any difference in condom disposition between women and men. Condoms are initially used more often in less risky types of relationships, especially if the partner ends up as a main partner. When studying the disposition towards anal sex we do however find a difference between men and women. Women are more against practising anal sex than men while the majority of men are neutral towards anal sex. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Measles is a highly transmissible disease and is one of the leading causes of death among young children under 5 globally. While the use of ongoing surveillance data and—recently—dynamic models offer insight on measles dynamics, both suffer notable shortcomings when applied to measles outbreak prediction. In this paper, we apply the Sequential Monte Carlo approach of particle filtering, incorporating reported measles incidence for Saskatchewan during the pre-vaccination era, using an adaptation of a previously contributed measles compartmental model. To secure further insight, we also perform particle filtering on an age structured adaptation of the model in which the population is divided into two interacting age groups—children and adults. The results indicate that, when used with a suitable dynamic model, particle filtering can offer high predictive capacity for measles dynamics and outbreak occurrence in a low vaccination context. We have investigated five particle filtering models in this project. Based on the most competitive model as evaluated by predictive accuracy, we have performed prediction and outbreak classification analysis. The prediction results demonstrate that this model could predict measles outbreak evolution and classify whether there will be an outbreak or not in the next month (Area under the ROC Curve of 0.89). We conclude that anticipating the outbreak dynamics of measles in low vaccination regions by applying particle filtering with simple measles transmission models, and incorporating time series of reported case counts, is a valuable technique to assist public health authorities in estimating risk and magnitude of measles outbreaks. It is to be emphasized that particle filtering supports estimation of (via sampling from) the entire state of the dynamic model—both latent and observable—for each point in time. Such approach offers a particularly strong value proposition for other pathogens with little-known dynamics, critical latent drivers, and in the context of the growing number of high-velocity electronic data sources. Strong additional benefits are also likely to be realized from extending the application of this technique to highly vaccinated populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Each year, evidence-based clinical guidelines gain more space in the health professionals’ practice and in services organization. Due to the scarcity of scientific publications focused on diseases of poverty, the development of well-founded clinical guidelines becomes more and more important. In view of that, this paper aims to evaluate the quality of Brazilian guidelines for those diseases. The AGREE II method was used to evaluate 16 guidelines for poverty-related diseases (PRD) and 16 guidelines for global diseases whose treatment require high-cost technologies (HCD), with the ultimate aim of comparing the results. It was found that, in general, the guideline development quality standard is higher for the HCD guidelines than for the PRD guidelines, with emphasis on the "rigour of development" (48% and 7%) and "editorial independence" (43% and 1%) domains, respectively, which had the greatest discrepancies. The HCD guidelines showed results close to or above international averages, whereas the PRD guidelines showed lower results in the 6 domains evaluated. It can be concluded that clinical protocol development priorities need some redirecting in order to qualify the guidelines that define the healthcare organization and the care of vulnerable populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) has likely contributed to large decreases in HIV incidence among men who have sex with men (MSM) in several major cities. Berlin has seen a smaller decline, and affordable PrEP has been accessible through formal channels in Germany only since autumn 2017. We aimed to investigate knowledge and use of PrEP among MSM in Berlin, and factors predictive of a desire to use PrEP and history of PrEP use. Methods: Multicentre, paper-based, self-administered survey of adult MSM whose HIV status was negative or unknown at time of participation. Data were collected from 1 October 2017 to 2 April 2018. Results: 473 of 875 questionnaires were returned (response rate 54.1%; mean age 37.4 years, range 18–79). 90.0% of participants were aware of PrEP and, of these, 48.2% felt well informed about it. Among the 17.2% of participants reporting PrEP use, 59.3% indicated obtaining some or all of it from informal sources. 23.7% of those with no history of PrEP use reported having condomless anal intercourse (CAI) with two or more partners over the past six months. Worries about side effects, cost, not having a doctor who prescribes it, and a lack of information were the most frequently reported barriers to PrEP use. A desire to use PrEP and history of PrEP use were associated in our multivariable model with having multiple CAI partners. A history of PrEP use was associated with having a university degree, one or two parents born outside Germany, or friends living with HIV. Conclusions: We found high awareness of PrEP among MSM in Berlin, but also a strong need for more education on its pros, cons and proper use. The frequency of informal PrEP use was also high, raising urgent individual and public health concerns. Policy makers need to consider recent calls to improve access to PrEP and PrEP education through regular health services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the past four decades, there has been an increase in the occurrence of zoonotic diseases. Some outbreaks have been devastating because of the inability of individuals and health workers to identify the diseases early. Generally, most zoonotic diseases are heralded by a fever. While fevers are common, they are often the symptoms of different diseases. This paper explores how a population at potential risk of zoonotic diseases identify fevers, and what treatments they seek when they develop fevers. The data are from focus group discussions and a survey of three communities in the Brong Ahafo, Volta and Greater Accra regions in Ghana. The quantitative data were analysed using descriptive statistics while the qualitative data were analysed using thematic analysis. The findings indicate that the perceived causes of fever differ from the traditional biomedical view. While orthodox treatment was the preferred choice for most participants, rural dwellers utilised traditional medicine more than their urban counterparts. Though there is no record of bat-borne zoonotic disease in Ghana, our findings could be used as a proxy to indicate how populations at risk of exposure might respond in the event of a spillover event from a zoonosis. We recommend that educational campaigns on zoonotic diseases should target rural dwellers, especially farmers, who may be most at risk of zoonoses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Homebased index case HIV testing (HHTC) has shown higher uptake and good yield than traditional HIV testing methods. World Health Organization has called for increased operational research to evaluate HIV care processes particularly linkage to care. In this paper, we present project results of the time taken to link newly identified PLHIV to care after HHTC in the Manicaland and Midlands provinces of Zimbabwe. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed community-facility referral data from the Zimbabwe HIV Care and Treatment project for newly diagnosed PLHIV for the period March–September 2016. A referral slip was given to a client after receiving a positive HIV results and was presented and filed upon reaching a health facility. In July 2016, the project started working with trained expert clients to assist with linkage to care. Data was entered in a spreadsheet and then imported for descriptive statistical analysis with EpiInfoTM Version 7.2.0.1. Odd ratios were used to identify factors associated with linkage to care within seven days. Results: Out of 1004 newly identified PLHIV between March and September 2016, 650 (64.7%) were linked to care. The median time taken to be linked to care was four days (Interquartile range 19 days). Overall, 63.1% (410) of PLHIV were linked to care within seven days of diagnosis and 85% within 30 days. PLHIV were more likely to be linked to care within seven days of diagnosis between July and September 2016 (OR = 4.1; p< 0.001), a period when ZHCT started working with expert clients to support linkage to care. Conclusion: HHTC resulted in almost 63% of newly diagnosed PLHIV being linked into care within seven days, and 85% within 30 days. Linkage to care within seven days was significantly associated with the period of engaging expert clients in the project. We recommend community based HIV testing programs to work with expert clients to ensure timely linkages of new PLHIV. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Adverse Drug Reactions (ADRs) are a major clinical and public health problem world-wide. The prompt reporting of suspected ADRs to regulatory authorities to activate drug safety surveillance and regulation appears to be the most pragmatic measure for addressing the problem. This paper evaluated a pharmacovigilance (PV) training model that was designed to improve the reporting of ADRs in public health programs treating the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), Tuberculosis (TB) and Malaria. Methods: A Structured Pharmacovigilance and Training Initiative (SPHAR-TI) model based on the World Health Organization accredited Structured Operational Research and Training Initiative (SOR-IT) model was designed and implemented over a period of 12 months. A prospective cohort design was deployed to evaluate the outcomes of the model. The primary outcomes were knowledge gained and Individual Case Safety Reports (ICSR) (completed adverse drug reactions monitoring forms) submitted, while the secondary outcomes were facility based Pharmacovigilance Committees activated and health facility healthcare workers trained by the participants. Results: Fifty-five (98%) participants were trained and followed up for 12 months. More than three quarter of the participants have never received training on pharmacovigilance prior to the course. Yet, a significant gain in knowledge was observed after the participants completed a comprehensive training for six days. In only seven months, 3000 ICSRs (with 100% completeness) were submitted, 2,937 facility based healthcare workers trained and 46 Pharmacovigilance Committees activated by the participants. Overall, a 273% increase in ICSRs submission to the National Agency for Food and Drug Administration and Control (NAFDAC) was observed. Conclusion: Participants gained knowledge, which tended to increase the reporting of ADRs. The SPHAR-TI model could be an option for strengthening the continuous reporting of ADRs in public health programs in resource limited settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Making inferences about measles distribution patterns at small area level is vital for more focal targeted intervention. However, in statistical literature, the analysis of originally collected data on one resolution with the purpose to make inferences on a different level of spatial resolution is referred to as the misalignment problem. In Namibia the measles data were available in aggregated format at regional level for the period 2005 to 2014. This leads to a spatial misalignment problem if the purpose is to make decisions at constituency level. Moreover, although data on risk covariates of measles could be obtained at constituency level, they were not available each year between 2005 and 2014. Thus, assuming that covariates were constant through the study period would induce measurement errors which might have effects on the analysis results. This paper presents a spatio-temporal model through a multi-step approach in order to deal with misalignment and measurement error. Methods: For the period 2005–2014, measles data from the Ministry of Health and Social Services (MoHSS) were analysed in two steps. First, a multi-step approach was applied to correct spatial misalignment in the data. Second, a classical measurement error model was fitted to account for measurement errors. The time effects were specified using a nonparametric formulation for the linear trend through first order random walk. An interaction between area and time was modelled through type I and type II interaction structures. Results: The study showed that there was high variation in measles risk across constituencies and as well as over the study period (2005–2014). Furthermore, the risk of measles was found to be associated with (i) the number of people aged between 0 and 24 years, (ii) the percentages of women aged 15–49 with an educational level more than secondary, (iii) the percentages of children age 12–23 months who received measles vaccine, (iv) the percentages of malnourished children under 5 years, and (vi) the measles cases for each previous year. Conclusion: The study showed some of the determinants of measles risk and revealed areas at high risk through disease mapping. Additionally, the study showed a non-linear temporal distribution of measles risk over the study period. Finally, it was shown that ignoring the measurement errors may yield misleading results. It was recommended that group and geographically targeted intervention, prevention and control strategies can be tailored on the basis these findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The Philippines has built an extensive decentralised network of Animal Bite Treatment Centers (ABTCs) to help bite victims receive timely rabies post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) at little cost. This study surveyed patients in the community and at ABTCs of three provinces to assess animal bite/scratch incidence, health-seeking behaviour and PEP-related out-of pocket expenses (OOPE). Methodology and principal findings: During community surveys in 90 barangays (neighbourhoods), 53% of households reported at least one animal bite /scratch injury over the past 3 years, similar across urban and rural barangays. Overall bite/scratch incidences in 2016–17 were 67.3, 41.9 and 48.8 per 1,000 population per year for Nueva Vizcaya, Palawan and Tarlac respectively. Incidences were around 50% higher amongst those under 15 years of age, compared to -those older than 15. Household awareness of the nearest ABTCs was generally over 80%, but only 44.9% sought proper medical treatment and traditional remedies were still frequently used. The proportion of patients seeking PEP was not related to the distance or travel time to the nearest ABTC. For those that did not seek medical treatment, most cited a lack of awareness or insufficient funds and almost a third visited a traditional healer. No deaths from bite/scratch injuries were reported. A cohort of 1,105 patients were interviewed at six ABTCs in early 2017. OOPE varied across the ABTCs, from 5.53 USD to 37.83 USD per patient, primarily dependent on the need to pay for immunization if government supplies had run out. Overall, 78% of patients completed the recommended course, and the main reason for non-completion was a lack of time, followed by insufficient funds. Dog observation data revealed that 85% of patients were not truly exposed to rabies, and education in bite prevention might reduce provoked bites and demand for PEP. An accompanying paper details the ABTC network from the health provider’s perspective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) represents the ninth leading cause of death worldwide. In 2016 are estimated 1.3 million TB deaths among HIV negative people and an additional 374,000 deaths among HIV positive people. In 2016 are estimated 1.4 million new cases of TB in people living with HIV (PLHIV), 74% of whom were living in Africa. In light of these data, the reduction of mortality caused by TB in PLHIV is strongly required specially in low-income countries as Mozambique. According to international guidelines, the initial TB screening in HIV+ patients should be done with the four symptoms screening (4SS: fever, current cough, night sweats and weight loss). The diagnostic test more used in resource-limited countries is smear microscopy (SMEAR). World Health Organization (WHO) recommended Lateral Flow urine LipoArabinoMannan assay (LF-LAM) in immunocompromised patients; in 2010 WHO endorsed the use of Xpert Mycobacterium Tuberculosis/Rifampicin (MTB/RIF) test for rapid TB diagnosis but the assay is not used as screening test in all HIV+ patients irrespectively of symptoms due to cost and logistical barriers. The paper aims to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of three screening protocols: standard (4SS and SMEAR in positive patients to 4SS); MTB/RIF; LF-LAM / MTB/RIF. Methods: We developed a model to assess the cost-effectiveness of the MTB/RIF protocol versus the common standard and LF-LAM / MTB/RIF protocol. The model considered a sample of 1,000 HIV+ antiretroviral treatment naïve patients in Mozambique. We evaluated disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted for each protocol, cost per DALY, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), over 1-year, assuming a national healthcare system perspective. The model considered the delayed diagnosis as the time elapsed between a false negative test and the diagnosis and treatment of TB. Additional health system organization delay is defined as the time interval between positive test and treatment initiation caused by a delay in the delivery of results due organization of services. We conducted a sensitivity analysis on more relevant variables. Results: The MTB/RIF protocol was cost-effective as compared to the standard protocol with an ICER of $56.54 per DALY saved. In a cohort of 1,000 patients MTB/RIF and LF-LAM / MTB/RIF protocol generated 1,281 and 1,254 DALY’s saved respectively, with a difference of 174 and 147 DALY respect to the standard protocol. The total cost of MTB/RIF protocol was lower ($92,263) than the standard ($147,226) and the LF-LAM / MTB/RIF ($113,196). Therefore, the cost per DALY saved including new infections due to delayed diagnosis with the standard protocol was $79.06, about 5 fold higher than MTB/RIF and LF-LAM / MTB/RIF protocols. The cost of additional TB infections due to delays in diagnosis plus health system delay seemed the more relevant costs. The low sensibility and sensitivity of the standard protocol led to a high number of false negatives, thus delayed TB diagnoses and treatment lead to the development of newly transmitted TB infections. Conclusions: Our study shows that the MTB/RIF adoption could lead to an increasing of TB case-finding and a reduction in costs compared with standard and LF-LAM / MTB/RIF protocols. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The Philippine government has an extensive network of 513 Animal Bite Treatment Centers (ABTCs) to supply rabies post exposure prophylaxis (PEP), reaching over 1 million bite victims in 2016. The network was evaluated using a review of existing national and provincial data, key informant interviews and surveys in sample ABTCs to determine the cost-effectiveness of this network in preventing human rabies deaths. Methodology and principal findings: One urban and one rural ABTC in each of three selected provinces were studied in more detail. PEP delivery generally followed national guidance based on best practices, but there was evidence of operational challenges in supplying all ABTCs with adequate biologics and recently trained staff. Funding was contributed by different levels of government and in some clinics, patients paid for a significant fraction of the total cost. From a health provider perspective including both fixed and variable costs, the average PEP course delivered cost USD 32.91 /patient across urban ABTCs (with higher patient throughput) and USD 57.21 /patient across rural ABTCs. These costs suggests that PEP provision in the Philippines cost USD 37.6 million in 2016, with a cost per life saved of USD 8,290. An analysis of the 2,239 suspected rabies deaths from 2008 to 2016 showed no significant decline, and from 2014–16 an average of 8,534 years of life were lost annually. The incidence of rabies deaths from 2014–16 was not clearly related to the provision of ABTCs (per 100,000 population) or human population density, but deaths were more common in higher income provinces. Conclusions/Significance: In the context of comprehensive rabies control (including dog vaccination and public awareness) ways to reduce this high expenditure on PEP should be explored, to most cost-effectively reach the elimination of human rabies deaths. This paper is accompanied by another containing data on the operation of ABTCs network from a patient perspective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: AIDS is a worrying public health issue in China and lacks timely and effective surveillance. With the diffusion and adoption of the Internet, the ‘big data’ aggregated from Internet search engines, which contain users’ information on the concern or reality of their health status, provide a new opportunity for AIDS surveillance. This paper uses search engine data to monitor and forecast AIDS in China. Methods: A machine learning method, artificial neural networks (ANNs), is used to forecast AIDS incidences and deaths. Search trend data related to AIDS from the largest Chinese search engine, Baidu.com, are collected and selected as the input variables of ANNs, and officially reported actual AIDS incidences and deaths are used as the output variable. Three criteria, the mean absolute percentage error, the root mean squared percentage error, and the index of agreement, are used to test the forecasting performance of the ANN method. Results: Based on the monthly time series data from January 2011 to June 2017, this article finds that, under the three criteria, the ANN method can lead to satisfactory forecasting of AIDS incidences and deaths, regardless of the change in the number of search queries. Conclusions: Despite the inability to self-detect HIV/AIDS through online searching, Internet-based data should be adopted as a timely, cost-effective complement to a traditional AIDS surveillance system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Risk perception has been found to be a crucial factor explaining inconsistent or non-use of HIV prevention interventions. Considerations of risk need to expand beyond risk of infection to also include the personal, social, emotional, and economic risks associated with prevention intervention use. Objectives: This systematic review of qualitative peer-reviewed literature from sub-Saharan Africa examines perceptions of risk associated with HIV infection and HIV prevention intervention use. Data sources: We searched Medline, Embase, PsychInfo, Africa Wide Info, CINAHL, and Global Health for publications and screened them for relevance. Study eligibility criteria: Peer-reviewed qualitative studies published since 2003 were eligible for inclusion if they examined risk perception or uncertainty in the context of a medically regulated intervention. Only studies focusing on adults were included. Study appraisal and synthesis methods: Included publications were quality assessed using the Hawker method and coded thematically. Results: 10318 unique papers were identified, of which 29 are included. Among the themes identified, a particularly salient one was the potential of HIV prevention interventions to threaten the stability of a relationship and impact on how and when people may—or may not—choose to use prevention interventions. Limitations: This literature review excludes grey-literature, which may have distinct valuable insights. We also excluded quantitative studies that may have challenged or triangulated our findings. Conclusions and implications: When considering the risk of HIV acquisition, it is insufficient to examine biological risk in isolation from the personal, relational and economic costs associated with intervention use. This loss of emotional, physical, or material support may be perceived as more consequential than the prevention of a potential infection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land use change (LUC) is a main cause of global environmental change, and is an important activity to be studied. Our research aims to examine the current state of evidence on the link between LUC and human health in the Amazon region. We conducted a scoping review of literature in two research databases, resulting in 14 papers for analysis. Our analysis demonstrated a lack of clear definitions for LUC, a wide variety of negative health effects from LUC, the lack of qualitative articles, a lack of studies exploring the potential positive health effects of LUC, and the predominance of studies coming from the Brazilian Amazon. Our study validated the prevailing idea that LUC can lead to negative health consequences, if not managed properly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A campaign for malaria control, using Long Lasting Insecticide Nets (LLINs) was launched in South Sudan in 2009. The success of such a campaign often depends upon adequate available resources and reliable surveillance data which help officials understand existing infections. An optimal allocation of resources for malaria control at a sub-national scale is therefore paramount to the success of efforts to reduce malaria prevalence. In this paper, we extend an existing SIR mathematical model to capture the effect of LLINs on malaria transmission. Available data on malaria is utilized to determine realistic parameter values of this model using a Bayesian approach via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Then, we explore the parasite prevalence on a continued rollout of LLINs in three different settings in order to create a sub-national projection of malaria. Further, we calculate the model’s basic reproductive number and study its sensitivity to LLINs’ coverage and its efficacy. From the numerical simulation results, we notice a basic reproduction number, , confirming a substantial increase of incidence cases if no form of intervention takes place in the community. This work indicates that an effective use of LLINs may reduce and hence malaria transmission. We hope that this study will provide a basis for recommending a scaling-up of the entry point of LLINs’ distribution that targets households in areas at risk of malaria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Migrant labourers living in the slums of urban and industrial patches across India make up a key sub-population so far controlling Tuberculosis (TB) in the country is concerned. This is because many TB patients from these communities- remain under reached by the Revised National Tuberculosis Control Programme (RNTCP) of India. This marginalized community usually seeks early-stage healthcare from “friendly neighbourhood” non-formal health providers (NFHPs). Because, RNTCP has limited capacity to involve the NFHPs, an implementation research project was conceived, whereby an external partner would engage with the NFHPs to enable them to identify early TB symptomatics from this key sub-population who would be then tested using Xpert MTB/RIF technology. Diagnosed TB cases among them would be referred promptly to RNTCP for treatment. This paper aimed to describe the project and its impact. Methods: Adopting a quasi-experimental before-after design, four RNTCP units from two major urban-industrial areas of Odisha were selected for intervention, which spanned five quarters and covered 151,400 people, of which 30% were slum-dwelling migrants. Two similar units comprised the control population. The hypothesis was, reaching the under reached in the intervention area through NFHPs would increase TB notification from these traditionally under-notifying units. RNTCP notification data during intervention was compared with pre-intervention era, adjusted for contemporaneous changes in control population Results: The project detected 488 Xpert+ TB cases, of whom 466 were administered RNTCP treatment. This translated into notification of additional 198 new bacteriologically positive cases to RNTCP, a 30% notification surge, after adjustment for 2% decline in control. This meant an average quarterly increase in notification of 41.20(20.08, 62.31; p<0.001) cases. The increase was immediate, evident from the rise in level in the time series analysis by 50.42(10.28, 90.55; p = 0.02) cases. Conclusion: Engagement with NFHPs contributed to an increase in TB notification to RNTCP from key under reached, slum-dwelling migrant populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The wild boar is an important crop raider as well as a reservoir and agent of spread of swine diseases. Due to increasing densities and expanding ranges worldwide, the related economic losses in livestock and agricultural sectors are significant and on the rise. Its management and control would strongly benefit from accurate and detailed spatial information on species distribution and abundance, which are often available only for small areas. Data are commonly available at aggregated administrative units with little or no information about the distribution of the species within the unit. In this paper, a four-step geostatistical downscaling approach is presented and used to disaggregate wild boar population density statistics from administrative units of different shape and size (polygons) to 5 km resolution raster maps by incorporating auxiliary fine scale environmental variables. 1) First a stratification method was used to define homogeneous bioclimatic regions for the analysis; 2) Under a geostatistical framework, the wild boar densities at administrative units, i.e. subnational areas, were decomposed into trend and residual components for each bioclimatic region. Quantitative relationships between wild boar data and environmental variables were estimated through multiple regression and used to derive trend components at 5 km spatial resolution. Next, the residual components (i.e., the differences between the trend components and the original wild boar data at administrative units) were downscaled at 5 km resolution using area-to-point kriging. The trend and residual components obtained at 5 km resolution were finally added to generate fine scale wild boar estimates for each bioclimatic region. 3) These maps were then mosaicked to produce a final output map of predicted wild boar densities across most of Eurasia. 4) Model accuracy was assessed at each different step using input as well as independent data. We discuss advantages and limits of the method and its potential application in animal health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a novel approach that uses meteorological information to predict the incidence of influenza in Galicia (Spain). It extends the Generalized Least Squares (GLS) methods in the multivariate framework to functional regression models with dependent errors. These kinds of models are useful when the recent history of the incidence of influenza are readily unavailable (for instance, by delays on the communication with health informants) and the prediction must be constructed by correcting the temporal dependence of the residuals and using more accessible variables. A simulation study shows that the GLS estimators render better estimations of the parameters associated with the regression model than they do with the classical models. They obtain extremely good results from the predictive point of view and are competitive with the classical time series approach for the incidence of influenza. An iterative version of the GLS estimator (called iGLS) was also proposed that can help to model complicated dependence structures. For constructing the model, the distance correlation measure was employed to select relevant information to predict influenza rate mixing multivariate and functional variables. These kinds of models are extremely useful to health managers in allocating resources in advance to manage influenza epidemics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pyrexia of unknown origin (PUO) is defined as a temperature of >38.3°C that lasts for >3 weeks, where no cause can be found despite appropriate investigation. Existing protocols for the work-up of PUO can be extensive and costly, motivating the application of recent advances in molecular diagnostics to pathogen testing. There have been many reports describing various analytical methods and performance of metagenomic pathogen testing in clinical samples but the economics of it has been less well studied. This study pragmatically evaluates the feasibility of introducing metagenomic testing in this setting by assessing the relative cost of clinically-relevant strategies employing this investigative tool under various cost and performance scenarios using Singapore as a demonstration case, and assessing the price and performance benchmarks, which would need to be achieved for metagenomic testing to be potentially considered financially viable relative to the current diagnostic standard. This study has some important limitations: we examined only impact of introducing the metagenomic test to the overall diagnostic cost and excluded costs associated with hospitalization and makes assumptions about the performance of the routine diagnostic tests, limiting the cost of metagenomic test, and the lack of further work-up after positive pathogen detection by the metagenomic test. However, these assumptions were necessary to keep the model within reasonable limits. In spite of these, the simplified presentation lends itself to the illustration of the key insights of our paper. In general, we find the use of metagenomic testing as second-line investigation is effectively dominated, and that use of metagenomic testing at first-line would typically require higher rates of detection or lower cost than currently available in order to be justifiable purely as a cost-saving measure. We conclude that current conditions do not warrant a widespread rush to deploy metagenomic testing to resolve any and all uncertainty, but rather as a front-line technology that should be used in specific contexts, as a supplement to rather than a replacement for careful clinical judgement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the double burden of infectious and chronic non-communicable diseases in Africa, health care expenditure disproportionately favours infectious diseases. In this paper, we examine quantitatively the extent of this disproportionate access to diagnoses and treatment of diabetes, hypertension and malaria in Ghana. A total of 220 health facilities was surveyed across the country in 2011. Findings indicate that diagnoses and treatment of infectious diseases were more accessible than NCDs. In terms of treatment, 78% and 87% of health facilities had two of the recommended malaria drugs while less than 35% had essential diabetes and hypertension drugs. There is a significant unmet need for diagnoses and treatment of NCDs in Ghana. These inequities have implications for high morbidity and mortality from NCDs. We recommend the use of task shifting as a model to increase the delivery of NCD services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: To describe the comprehensive sex education (CSE) coverage and to evaluate a set of indicators related to knowledge, attitudes, and practices associated with the seven components of the CSE framework among Mexican high-school students. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional survey of a nationally representative sample of students in public and private high schools in Mexico. Questions about CSE coverage and about knowledge, attitudes, and practices related to sexual health were included. We present descriptive statistics for demographic characteristics, exposure to CSE, and sexual health outcomes. We fitted a series of multivariate logistic regression models to examine the association between each CSE component exposure and sexual health outcomes, adjusting for age and sex. Results: There were significant associations between being exposed to each CSE components and the related sexual health outcomes. The strongest one was for identifying effective contraceptives among those exposed to the Sexual and Reproductive Health component (SRH) (OR 4.10; 95%CI[2.93,5.75]). Also, students exposed to the relationships component had 20% higher odds of affirming they could convince their partner to use condoms (OR 1.20; 95%CI[1.05,1.36]). Conclusions: This paper provides evidence of the potential beneficial effects of CSE on attitudes, knowledge, and behaviors regarding sexual and reproductive health among adolescents. In addition, it identifies areas that should be strengthened to increase the positive impact of CSE. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background & aims: Emphasis on adolescent HIV has increased worldwide as antiretroviral treatment has greatly extended life expectancies of HIV-positive children. Few evidence-based guidelines exist on the optimal time to disclose to an adolescent living with HIV (ALHIV); little is known about the medical effects of disclosure. This study looked to determine whether disclosure is associated with improved medical outcomes in ALHIV. Prior work has tended to be qualitative, cross-sectional, and with an emphasis on psychosocial outcomes. This paper addresses the adolescent cohort retrospectively (longitudinally), building upon what is already known about disclosure. Methods: Retrospective, longitudinal clinical record reviews of ALHIV seen at Kericho District Hospital between April 2004 and November 2012 were performed. Patient demographics and clinical outcomes were systematically extracted. The student’s t-test was used to calculate changes in mean CD4 count, antiretroviral therapy (ART), and cotrimoxazole adherence pre- vs. post-disclosure. Linear regression modelling assessed for trends in those clinical outcomes associated with age of disclosure. Results: Ninety-six ALHIV (54 female, 42 male) were included; most (73%) entered care through the outpatient department. Nearly half were cared for by parents, and 20% experienced a change in their primary caregiver. The mean time in the study was 2.47 years; mean number of visits 10.97 per patient over the mean time in the study. Mean disclosure age was 12.34 years. An increase in mean ART adherence percentage was found with disclosure (0.802 vs. 0.917; p = 0.0015). Younger disclosure age was associated with significantly higher mean CD4 counts over the course of the study (p = 0.001), and a nonsignificant trend toward a higher mean ART adherence percentage (p = 0.055). Conclusion: ART adherence and improved immunologic status are both associated with disclosure of HIV infection to adolescent patients. Disclosure of an HIV diagnosis to an adolescent is an important means to improve HIV care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In Australia, pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is targeted to individuals at high risk for HIV infection. We describe the HIV risk profile and characteristics of PRELUDE participants, and evaluate the population validity of the sample in representing high-risk gay and bisexual men (GBM) eligible for PrEP. Methods: PRELUDE is an on-going, open-label, single-arm observational study. Participants were identified in clinics and screened for eligibility using a paper-based risk assessment tool which followed the New South Wales (NSW) PrEP guidelines. Selection was validated using an independent online behavioural survey, completed by study participants upon enrolment. Demographic information was analysed using descriptive statistics, and kappa tests were used to determine agreement between reporting of high-risk practices in the risk assessment and behavioural survey. Results: During 2014–15, 471 individuals were targeted for enrolment; 341 were assessed for PrEP eligibility and 313 were enrolled. Of these, 303 (97%) identified as GBM. Overall, 85% of GBM met at least one high-risk criterion; 68% reported receptive intercourse with an HIV-positive or unknown status casual male partner, and 37% reported methamphetamine use in the three months preceding enrolment. The remaining 15% were enrolled based on medium-risk behaviours, or at the clinicians’ discretion. We found an 82% total agreement between self-reported high-risk behaviour and clinicians’ categorisation of GBM as being at high risk for HIV based on PrEP eligibility criteria. Conclusions: Behavioural eligibility criteria used by clinicians successfully identified individuals at high risk for HIV infection. This targeted approach ensures that the greatest public health and HIV prevention benefits can be derived in a setting without universal access to PrEP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Hospital Authority (HA) is a statutory body managing all the public hospitals and institutes in Hong Kong (HK). In recent decades, Hong Kong Hospital Authority (HKHA) has been making efforts to improve the healthcare services, but there still exist some problems like unfair resource allocation and poor management, as reported by the Hong Kong medical legislative committee. One critical consequence of these problems is low healthcare efficiency of hospitals, leading to low satisfaction among patients. Moreover, HKHA also suffers from the conflict between limited resource and growing demand. An effective evaluation of HA is important for resource planning and healthcare decision making. In this paper, we propose a two-phase method to evaluate HA efficiency for reducing healthcare expenditure and improving healthcare service. Specifically, in Phase I, we measure the HKHA efficiency changes from 2000 to 2013 by applying a novel DEA-Malmquist index with undesirable factors. In Phase II, we further explore the impact of some exogenous factors (e.g., population density) on HKHA efficiency by Tobit regression model. Empirical results show that there are significant differences between the efficiencies of different hospitals and clusters. In particular, it is found that the public hospital serving in a richer district has a relatively lower efficiency. To a certain extent, this reflects the socioeconomic reality in HK that people with better economic condition prefers receiving higher quality service from the private hospitals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Even though cholera has existed for centuries and many parts of the country have sporadic, endemic and epidemic cholera, it is still an under-recognized health problem in India. A Cholera Expert Group in the country was established to gather evidence and to prepare a road map for control of cholera in India. This paper identifies cholera burden hotspots and factors associated with an increased risk of the disease. Methodology/Principle findings: We acquired district level data on cholera case reports of 2010–2015 from the Integrated Disease Surveillance Program. Socioeconomic characteristics and coverage of water and sanitation was obtained from the 2011 census. Spatial analysis was performed to identify cholera hotspots, and a zero-inflated Poisson regression was employed to identify the factors associated with cholera and predicted case count in the district. 27,615 cholera cases were reported during the 6-year period. Twenty-four of 36 states of India reported cholera during these years, and 13 states were classified as endemic. Of 641 districts, 78 districts in 15 states were identified as “hotspots” based on the reported cases. On the other hand, 111 districts in nine states were identified as “hotspots” from model-based predicted number of cases. The risk for cholera in a district was negatively associated with the coverage of literate persons, households using treated water source and owning mobile telephone, and positively associated with the coverage of poor sanitation and drainage conditions and urbanization level in the district. Conclusions/Significance: The study reaffirms that cholera continues to occur throughout a large part of India and identifies the burden hotspots and risk factors. Policymakers may use the findings of the article to develop a roadmap for prevention and control of cholera in India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Germany has been officially free of bovine tuberculosis since 1996. However, in the last years there has been an increase of bovine tuberculosis cases, particularly in the southern part of Germany, in the Allgäu region. As a consequence a one-time tuberculosis surveillance program was revisited with different premortal and postmortal tests. The aim of this paper was to estimate diagnostic sensitivities and specificities of the different tests used within this surveillance program. In the absence of a perfect test with 100% sensitivity and 100% specificity, thus in the absence of a gold standard, a Bayesian latent class approach with two different datasets was performed. The first dataset included 389 animals, tested with single intra-dermal comparative cervical tuberculin (SICCT) test, PCR and pathology; the second dataset contained 175 animals, tested with single intra-dermal cervical tuberculin (SICT) test, Bovigam® assay, pathology and culture. Two-way conditional dependencies were considered within the models. Additionally, inter-laboratory agreement (five officially approved laboratories) of the Bovigam® assay was assessed with Cohen's kappa test (21 blood samples). The results are given in posterior means and 95% credibility intervals. The specificities of the SICT test, SICCT test, PCR and pathology ranged between 75.8% [68.8–82.2%] and 99.0% [96.8–100%]. The Bovigam® assay stood out with a very low specificity (6.9% [3.6–11.1%]), though it had the highest sensitivity (95.7% [91.3–99.2%]). The sensitivities of the SICCT test, PCR, SICT test, pathology and culture varied from 57.8% [48.0–67.6%] to 88.9% [65.5–99.7%]. The prevalences were 19.8% [14.6–26.5%] (three-test dataset) and 7.7% [4.2–12.3%] (four-test dataset). Among all pairwise comparisons the highest agreement was 0.62 [0.15–1]). In conclusion, the specificity of the Bovigam® assay and the inter-laboratory agreement were lower than expected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Outbreaks of epidemic diseases pose serious public health risks. To overcome the hurdles of sub-optimal disease surveillance reporting from the health facilities to relevant authorities, the Ministry of Health in Kenya piloted mSOS (mobile SMS-based disease outbreak alert system) in 2013–2014. In this paper, we report the results of the qualitative study, which examined factors that influence the performances of mSOS implementation. In-depth interviews were conducted with 11 disease surveillance coordinators and 32 in-charges of rural health facilities that took part in the mSOS intervention. Drawing from the framework analysis, dominant themes that emerged from the interviews are presented. All participants voiced their excitement in using mSOS. The results showed that the technology was well accepted, easy to use, and both health workers and managers unanimously recommended the scale-up of the system despite challenges encountered in the implementation processes. The most challenging components were the context in which mSOS was implemented, including the lack of strong existing structure for continuous support supervision, feedback and response action related to disease surveillance. The study revealed broader health systems issues that should be addressed prior to and during the intervention scale-up. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Heroin use in the United States has reached epidemic proportions. The objective of this paper is to estimate the annual societal cost of heroin use disorder in the United States in 2015 US dollars. Methods: An analytic model was created that included incarceration and crime; treatment for heroin use disorder; chronic infectious diseases (HIV, Hepatitis B, Hepatitis C, and Tuberculosis) and their treatments; treatment of neonatal abstinence syndrome; lost productivity; and death by heroin overdose. Results: Using literature-based estimates to populate the model, the cost of heroin use disorder was estimated to be $51.2 billion in 2015 US dollars ($50,799 per heroin user). One-way sensitivity analyses showed that overall cost estimates were sensitive to the number of heroin users, cost of HCV treatment, and cost of incarcerating heroin users. Conclusion: The annual cost of heroin use disorder to society in the United States emphasizes the need for sustained investment in healthcare and non-healthcare related strategies that reduce the likelihood of abuse and provide care and support for users to overcome the disorder. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When used correctly and consistently, the male condom offers triple protection from unintended pregnancy and the transmission of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). However, with health funding levels stagnant or falling, it is important to understand the cost and health impact associated with prevention technologies. This study is one of the first to attempt to quantify the cost and combined health impact of condom use, as a means to prevent unwanted pregnancy and to prevent transmission of STIs including HIV. This paper describes the analysis to make the case for investment in the male condom, including the cost, impact and cost-effectiveness by three scenarios (low in which 2015 condom use levels are maintained; medium in which condom use trends are used to predict condom use from 2016–2030; and high in which condom use is scaled up, as part of a package of contraceptives, to meet all unmet need for family planning by 2030 and to 90% for HIV and STI prevention by 2016) for 81 countries from 2015–2030. An annual gap between current and desired use of 10.9 billion condoms was identified (4.6 billion for family planning and 6.3 billion for HIV and STIs). Under a high scenario that completely reduces that gap between current and desired use of 10.9 billion condoms, we found that by 2030 countries could avert 240 million DALYs. The additional cost in the 81 countries through 2030 under the medium scenario is $1.9 billion, and $27.5 billion under the high scenario. Through 2030, the cost-effectiveness ratios are $304 per DALY averted for the medium and $115 per DALY averted for the high scenario. Under the three scenarios described above, our analysis demonstrates the cost-effectiveness of the male condom in preventing unintended pregnancy and HIV and STI new infections. Policy makers should increase budgets for condom programming to increase the health return on investment of scarce resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This is the first study to evaluate the serologic and molecular prevalence of Coxiella burnetii in cattle at national breeding stock farms in South Korea. These government farms have well-organized biosecurity and management systems to prevent livestock diseases. Of the 736 cattle in this study, 77 tested positive for antibodies against C. burnetii antigens (10.5%, 95% CI: 8.3–12.7) and 11 were positive for a C. burnetti infection on PCR analysis (1.5%, 95% CI: 0.6–2.4). Since the 16S rRNA sequences of C. burnetii from all 11 PCR-positive samples were identical, three representative samples (C-CN-3 from the southern region, C-JJ-9 from Jeju Island, and C-CB-37 from the central region) are described in this paper. These three sequences had 99.3–100% identity to those of C. burnetii deposited in GenBank. These sequences clustered with those from USA, Japan, and Greenland, underscoring the sequence similarity among C. burnetii isolates in these countries. Because C. burnetii was detected in cattle at well-managed national breeding stock farms, cattle at non-government operated farms may be more likely to be exposed to C. burnetii in South Korea. Thus, continuous surveillance and control strategies in animals and humans are required to prevent the transmission of C. burnetii to humans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Studies have been conducted in developing countries using SMS to communicate with patients to reduce the number of missed appointments and improve retention in treatment, however; very few have been scaled up. One possible reason for this could be that patients or staff are dissatisfied with the method in some way. This paper reports a study of patients’ and healthcare workers’ (HCW) views on an mHealth intervention aiming to support retention in antiretroviral therapy (ART) and tuberculosis (TB) treatment in Mozambique. Methods: The study was conducted at five healthcare centres in Mozambique. Automated SMS health promotions and reminders were sent to patients in a RCT. A total of 141 patients and 40 HCWs were interviewed. Respondents rated usefulness, perceived benefits, ease of use, satisfaction, and risks of the SMS system using a Likert scale questionnaire. A semi-structured interview guide was followed. Interviews were transcribed and thematic analysis was conducted. Results: Both patients and HCW found the SMS system useful and reliable. Most highly rated positive effects were reducing the number of failures to collect medication and avoiding missing appointments. Patients’ confidence in the system was high. Most perceived the system to improve communication between health-care provider and patient and assist in education and motivation. The automatic recognition of questions from patients and the provision of appropriate answers (a unique feature of this system) was especially appreciated. A majority would recommend the system to other patients or healthcare centres. Risks also were mentioned, mostly by HCW, of unintentional disclosure of health status in cases where patients use shared phones. Conclusions: The results suggest that SMS technology for HIV and TB should be used to transmit reminders for appointments, medications, motivational texts, and health education to increase retention in care. Measures must be taken to reduce risks of privacy intrusion, but these are not a main obstacle for scaling up systems of this kind. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]