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Background: Risk perception has been found to be a crucial factor explaining inconsistent or non-use of HIV prevention interventions. Considerations of risk need to expand beyond risk of infection to also include the personal, social, emotional, and economic risks associated with prevention intervention use. Objectives: This systematic review of qualitative peer-reviewed literature from sub-Saharan Africa examines perceptions of risk associated with HIV infection and HIV prevention intervention use. Data sources: We searched Medline, Embase, PsychInfo, Africa Wide Info, CINAHL, and Global Health for publications and screened them for relevance. Study eligibility criteria: Peer-reviewed qualitative studies published since 2003 were eligible for inclusion if they examined risk perception or uncertainty in the context of a medically regulated intervention. Only studies focusing on adults were included. Study appraisal and synthesis methods: Included publications were quality assessed using the Hawker method and coded thematically. Results: 10318 unique papers were identified, of which 29 are included. Among the themes identified, a particularly salient one was the potential of HIV prevention interventions to threaten the stability of a relationship and impact on how and when people may—or may not—choose to use prevention interventions. Limitations: This literature review excludes grey-literature, which may have distinct valuable insights. We also excluded quantitative studies that may have challenged or triangulated our findings. Conclusions and implications: When considering the risk of HIV acquisition, it is insufficient to examine biological risk in isolation from the personal, relational and economic costs associated with intervention use. This loss of emotional, physical, or material support may be perceived as more consequential than the prevention of a potential infection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In Australia, pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is targeted to individuals at high risk for HIV infection. We describe the HIV risk profile and characteristics of PRELUDE participants, and evaluate the population validity of the sample in representing high-risk gay and bisexual men (GBM) eligible for PrEP. Methods: PRELUDE is an on-going, open-label, single-arm observational study. Participants were identified in clinics and screened for eligibility using a paper-based risk assessment tool which followed the New South Wales (NSW) PrEP guidelines. Selection was validated using an independent online behavioural survey, completed by study participants upon enrolment. Demographic information was analysed using descriptive statistics, and kappa tests were used to determine agreement between reporting of high-risk practices in the risk assessment and behavioural survey. Results: During 2014–15, 471 individuals were targeted for enrolment; 341 were assessed for PrEP eligibility and 313 were enrolled. Of these, 303 (97%) identified as GBM. Overall, 85% of GBM met at least one high-risk criterion; 68% reported receptive intercourse with an HIV-positive or unknown status casual male partner, and 37% reported methamphetamine use in the three months preceding enrolment. The remaining 15% were enrolled based on medium-risk behaviours, or at the clinicians’ discretion. We found an 82% total agreement between self-reported high-risk behaviour and clinicians’ categorisation of GBM as being at high risk for HIV based on PrEP eligibility criteria. Conclusions: Behavioural eligibility criteria used by clinicians successfully identified individuals at high risk for HIV infection. This targeted approach ensures that the greatest public health and HIV prevention benefits can be derived in a setting without universal access to PrEP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

TB is rated as one of the world’s deadliest diseases and South Africa ranks 9th out of the 22 countries with hardest hit of TB. Although many pieces of research have been carried out on this subject, this paper steps further by inculcating past knowledge into the model, using Bayesian approach with informative prior. Bayesian statistics approach is getting popular in data analyses. But, most applications of Bayesian inference technique are limited to situations of non-informative prior, where there is no solid external information about the distribution of the parameter of interest. The main aim of this study is to profile people living with TB in South Africa. In this paper, identical regression models are fitted for classical and Bayesian approach both with non-informative and informative prior, using South Africa General Household Survey (GHS) data for the year 2014. For the Bayesian model with informative prior, South Africa General Household Survey dataset for the year 2011 to 2013 are used to set up priors for the model 2014. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The report of the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) for World AIDS Day 2014 highlighted a Fast-Track Strategy that sets ambitious treatment and prevention targets to reduce global HIV incidence to manageable levels by 2020 and end the AIDS epidemic by 2030. The 90-90-90 treatment targets for 2020 call for 90% of people living with HIV to know their HIV status, 90% of people who know their status to receive treatment, and 90% of people on HIV treatment to be virally suppressed. This paper examines how scale-up of voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) services in four priority countries in sub-Saharan Africa could contribute to ending the AIDS epidemic by 2030 in the context of concerted efforts to close the treatment gap, and what the impact of VMMC scale-up would be if the 90-90-90 treatment targets were not completely met. Methods: Using the Goals module of the Spectrum suite of models, this analysis modified ART (antiretroviral treatment) scale-up coverage from base scenarios to reflect the 90-90-90 treatment targets in four countries (Lesotho, Malawi, South Africa, and Uganda). In addition, a second scenario was created to reflect viral suppression levels of 75% instead of 90%, and a third scenario was created in which the 90-90-90 treatment targets are reached in women, with men reaching more moderate coverage levels. Regarding male circumcision (MC) coverage, the analysis examined both a scenario in which VMMCs were assumed to stop after 2015, and one in which MC coverage was scaled up to 90% by 2020 and maintained at 90% thereafter. Results: Across all four countries, scaling up VMMC is projected to provide further HIV incidence reductions in addition to those achieved by reaching the 90-90-90 treatment targets. If viral suppression levels only reach 75%, scaling up VMMC leads to HIV incidence reduction to nearly the same levels as those achieved with 90-90-90 without VMMC scale-up. If only women reach the 90-90-90 targets, scaling up VMMC brings HIV incidence down to near the levels projected with 90-90-90 without VMMC scale-up. Regarding cost, scaling up VMMC increases the annual costs during the scale-up phase, but leads to lower annual costs after the MC coverage target is achieved. Conclusions: The scenarios modeled in this paper show that the highly durable and effective male circumcision intervention increases epidemic impact levels over those of treatment-only strategies, including the case if universal levels of viral suppression in men and women are not achieved by 2020. In the context of 90-90-90, prioritizing continued successful scale-up of VMMC increases the possibility that future generations will be free not only of AIDS but also of HIV. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent advances in the efficacy and tolerability of hepatitis C treatments and the introduction of a universal access scheme for the new Direct Acting Antiviral (DAA) therapies in March 2016, has resulted in a rapid increase in the uptake of hepatitis C treatment in Australia. Despite these positive developments, recent data suggest a plateauing of treatment numbers, indicating that more work may need to be done to identify and address ongoing barriers to hepatitis C treatment access and uptake. This paper aims to contribute to our understanding of the ongoing barriers to DAA therapies, with a focus on people who inject drugs. The paper draws on participant interview data from a qualitative research study based on a participatory research design that included a peer researcher with direct experience of both hepatitis C DAA treatment and injecting drug use at all stages of the research process. The study’s findings show that residual barriers to DAA treatment exist at personal, provider and system levels and include poor venous access, DAA treatments not considered ‘core-business’ by opioid substitution treatment (OST) providers, and patients having to manage multiple health and social priorities that interfere with keeping medical appointments such as childcare and poor access to transport services. Further, efforts to increase access to and uptake of DAA hepatitis C treatment over time will require a focus on reducing stigma and discrimination towards people who inject drugs as this remains as a major barrier to care for many people. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The 2014 outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa was the largest in history. Starting in September 2014, International Medical Corps (IMC) operated five Ebola treatment units (ETUs) in Sierra Leone and Liberia. This paper explores how future infectious disease outbreak facilities in resource-limited settings can be planned, organized, and managed by analyzing data collected on water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) and infection prevention control (IPC) protocols. Design/Methodology/Approach: We conducted a retrospective cohort study by analyzing WASH/IPC activity data routinely recorded on paper forms or white boards at ETUs during the outbreak and later merged into a database from two IMC-run ETUs in Sierra Leone between December 2014 and December 2015. Findings: The IMC WASH/IPC database contains data from over 369 days. Our results highlight parameters key to designing and maintaining an ETU. High concentration chlorine solution usage was highly correlated with both daily patient occupancy and high-risk zone staff entries; low concentration chlorine usage was less well explained by these measures. There is high demand for laundering and disinfecting of personal protective equipment (PPE) on a daily basis and approximately 1 (0–4) piece of PPE is damaged each day. Research limitations/Implications: Lack of standardization in the type and format of data collected at ETUs made constructing the WASH/IPC database difficult. However, the data presented here may help inform humanitarian response operations in future epidemics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) has been shown to be an effective prevention strategy against HIV infection in males [–]. Since 2007, the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) has supported VMMC programs in 14 priority countries in Africa. Today several of these countries are preparing to transition their VMMC programs from a scale-up and expansion phase to a maintenance phase. As they do so, they must consider the best approaches to sustain high levels of male circumcision in the population. The two alternatives under consideration are circumcising adolescents 10–14 years old over the long term or integrating early infant male circumcision (EIMC) into maternal and child health programs. The paper presents an analysis, using the Decision Makers Program Planning Tool, Version 2.0 (DMPPT 2.0), of the estimated cost and impact of introducing EIMC into existing VMMC programs in several countries in eastern and southern Africa. Limited cost data exist for the implementation of EIMC, but preliminary studies, such as the one detailed in Mangenah, et al. [–], suggest that the cost of EIMC may be less than that of adolescent and adult male circumcision. If this is the case, then adding EIMC to the VMMC program will increase the number of circumcisions that need to be performed but will not increase the total cost of the program over the long term. In addition, we found that a delayed or slow start-up of EIMC would not substantially reduce the impact of adding it to the program or increase cumulative long-term costs, which should make introduction of EIMC more feasible and attractive to countries contemplating such a program innovation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: HIV self-testing (HIVST) offers a useful addition to HIV testing services and enables individuals to test privately. Despite recommendations to the contrary, repeat HIV testing is frequent among people already on anti-retroviral treatment (ART) and there are concerns that oral self-testing might lead to false negative results. A study was conducted in Khayelitsha, South Africa, to assess feasibility and uptake of HIVST and linkage-to-care following HIVST. Methods: Participants were recruited at two health facilities from 1 March 2016 to 31 March 2017. People under 18 years, or with self-reported previously-diagnosed HIV infection, were excluded. Participants received an OraQuick Rapid HIV-1/2 Antibody kit, and reported their HIVST results by pre-paid text message (SMS) or by returning to the facility. Those not reporting within 7 days were contacted by phone. Electronic and paper-based clinical and laboratory records were retrospectively examined for all participants to identify known HIV outcomes, after matching for name, date of birth, and sex. These findings were compared with self-reported HIVST results where available. Results: Of 639 participants, 401 (62.8%) self-reported a negative HIVST result, 27 (4.2%) a positive result, and 211 (33.0%) did not report. The record search identified that of the 401 participants self-reporting a negative HIVST result, 19 (4.7%) were already known to be HIV positive; of the 27 self-reporting positive, 12 (44%) were known HIV positive. Overall, records showed 57/639 (8.9%) were HIV positive of whom 39/57 (68.4%) had previously-diagnosed infection and 18/57 (31.6%) newly-diagnosed infection. Of the 428 participants who self-reported a result, 366 (85.5%) reported by SMS. Conclusions: HIVST can improve HIV testing uptake and linkage to care. SMS is acceptable for reporting HIVST results but negative self-reports by participants may be unreliable. Use of HIVST by individuals on ART is frequent despite recommendations to the contrary and its implications need further consideration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Invasive cervical cancer is the most prevalent cancer among women in Sub-Saharan Africa. In 2013, the World Health Organization (WHO) emitted recommendations to start Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy (HAART) regardless of CD4 count. Although HAART has been shown to reduce the prevalence of high-risk human papillomavirus (HR-HPV) genotypes, it is unclear whether it confers a protective effect specifically for HPV 16. This review summarizes the existing evidence regarding the effect of HAART on HPV 16 infection, as this genotype may not be influenced by immunity level and explores its implications for Sub Saharan Africa. A comprehensive literature review was undertaken and quality assessment was carried out on the selected papers. Four cohort studies and three cross-sectional studies were identified for which the overall quality score assessment ranged from weak/moderate (Score of 1.8) to strong (Score of 3). The evidence yielded by our review was conflicting. Thus, the high heterogeneity between study populations and results did not allow us to draw any firm conclusions as to whether HAART has an impact on HPV 16 acquisition/prevalence. As only three studies were conducted in Africa, there are insufficient grounds for solid comparison between geographic regions. In light of inadequate data, HPV unvaccinated women on HAART should still receive more frequent follow-up. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The strategy of the “Belt and Road” initiative aims not only to promote the cooperation and the development of economic trade, but also to boost the integration and development in multiple fields—especially in the field of health. This paper explores the health levels of member-states in the Belt and Road initiative from the perspective of regional differences and spatial patterns. Data from the 68 member-states in the Belt and Road initiative were selected from the statistical data on disease and socioeconomics in all countries from the 2015 publication by the World Bank and the World Health Organization. Health indicators that can reflect health levels of member states were selected. Moran’s I and Getis-Ord Gi* were used to analyze the spatial clustering and hot/cold spots of the health status. After that a novel spatial statistical method “geographical detector” was used to analysis the spatial stratified heterogeneity of the selected health indicators. The result showed that the health level of the member states fluctuated around the world average and varied greatly within the member states. The health status of the member states showed spatial clustering, and the q-statistics of the geographical detector confirmed that the health status demonstrated statistically significant spatial heterogeneity for different continent the member states reside. In general, member states in Europe and Oceania demonstrated higher health status, while those in South Asia, Southeast Asia, Africa and part of Middle East have lower health status. In particular, special attention should be paid to control communicable diseases in African member states. Different regions and member states face different kinds of health threats in various degrees. Member states should strengthen health cooperation between themselves and work closely with other countries to make the “belt and road” a healthy road. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Following the emergence of H7N9 influenza in March 2013, local animal and public health authorities in China have been closing live bird markets as a measure to try to control the H7N9 influenza epidemic. The role of live bird market (LBM) closure on the spread of N7N9 influenza following the closure of LBMs during March to May 2013 (the first wave) and October 2013 to March 2014 (the second wave) is described in this paper. Different provinces implemented closure actions at different times, and intensive media reports on H7N9 in different provinces started at different times. Local broiler prices dropped dramatically in places with outbreaks and more live chickens were transported to other LBMs in neighboring areas without human cases from infected areas when live bird markets were being closed. There were six clusters of human infection from March to May 2013 and October 2013 to March 2014 and there may have been intensive poultry transportation among cluster areas. These findings provide evidence that the closure of LBMs in early waves of H7N9 influenza had resulted in expansion of H7N9 infection to uninfected areas. This suggests that provincial authorities in inland provinces should be alert to the risks of sudden changes in movement patterns for live birds after LBM closure or increased publicity about LBM closure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) has likely contributed to large decreases in HIV incidence among men who have sex with men (MSM) in several major cities. Berlin has seen a smaller decline, and affordable PrEP has been accessible through formal channels in Germany only since autumn 2017. We aimed to investigate knowledge and use of PrEP among MSM in Berlin, and factors predictive of a desire to use PrEP and history of PrEP use. Methods: Multicentre, paper-based, self-administered survey of adult MSM whose HIV status was negative or unknown at time of participation. Data were collected from 1 October 2017 to 2 April 2018. Results: 473 of 875 questionnaires were returned (response rate 54.1%; mean age 37.4 years, range 18–79). 90.0% of participants were aware of PrEP and, of these, 48.2% felt well informed about it. Among the 17.2% of participants reporting PrEP use, 59.3% indicated obtaining some or all of it from informal sources. 23.7% of those with no history of PrEP use reported having condomless anal intercourse (CAI) with two or more partners over the past six months. Worries about side effects, cost, not having a doctor who prescribes it, and a lack of information were the most frequently reported barriers to PrEP use. A desire to use PrEP and history of PrEP use were associated in our multivariable model with having multiple CAI partners. A history of PrEP use was associated with having a university degree, one or two parents born outside Germany, or friends living with HIV. Conclusions: We found high awareness of PrEP among MSM in Berlin, but also a strong need for more education on its pros, cons and proper use. The frequency of informal PrEP use was also high, raising urgent individual and public health concerns. Policy makers need to consider recent calls to improve access to PrEP and PrEP education through regular health services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Homebased index case HIV testing (HHTC) has shown higher uptake and good yield than traditional HIV testing methods. World Health Organization has called for increased operational research to evaluate HIV care processes particularly linkage to care. In this paper, we present project results of the time taken to link newly identified PLHIV to care after HHTC in the Manicaland and Midlands provinces of Zimbabwe. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed community-facility referral data from the Zimbabwe HIV Care and Treatment project for newly diagnosed PLHIV for the period March–September 2016. A referral slip was given to a client after receiving a positive HIV results and was presented and filed upon reaching a health facility. In July 2016, the project started working with trained expert clients to assist with linkage to care. Data was entered in a spreadsheet and then imported for descriptive statistical analysis with EpiInfoTM Version 7.2.0.1. Odd ratios were used to identify factors associated with linkage to care within seven days. Results: Out of 1004 newly identified PLHIV between March and September 2016, 650 (64.7%) were linked to care. The median time taken to be linked to care was four days (Interquartile range 19 days). Overall, 63.1% (410) of PLHIV were linked to care within seven days of diagnosis and 85% within 30 days. PLHIV were more likely to be linked to care within seven days of diagnosis between July and September 2016 (OR = 4.1; p< 0.001), a period when ZHCT started working with expert clients to support linkage to care. Conclusion: HHTC resulted in almost 63% of newly diagnosed PLHIV being linked into care within seven days, and 85% within 30 days. Linkage to care within seven days was significantly associated with the period of engaging expert clients in the project. We recommend community based HIV testing programs to work with expert clients to ensure timely linkages of new PLHIV. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Making inferences about measles distribution patterns at small area level is vital for more focal targeted intervention. However, in statistical literature, the analysis of originally collected data on one resolution with the purpose to make inferences on a different level of spatial resolution is referred to as the misalignment problem. In Namibia the measles data were available in aggregated format at regional level for the period 2005 to 2014. This leads to a spatial misalignment problem if the purpose is to make decisions at constituency level. Moreover, although data on risk covariates of measles could be obtained at constituency level, they were not available each year between 2005 and 2014. Thus, assuming that covariates were constant through the study period would induce measurement errors which might have effects on the analysis results. This paper presents a spatio-temporal model through a multi-step approach in order to deal with misalignment and measurement error. Methods: For the period 2005–2014, measles data from the Ministry of Health and Social Services (MoHSS) were analysed in two steps. First, a multi-step approach was applied to correct spatial misalignment in the data. Second, a classical measurement error model was fitted to account for measurement errors. The time effects were specified using a nonparametric formulation for the linear trend through first order random walk. An interaction between area and time was modelled through type I and type II interaction structures. Results: The study showed that there was high variation in measles risk across constituencies and as well as over the study period (2005–2014). Furthermore, the risk of measles was found to be associated with (i) the number of people aged between 0 and 24 years, (ii) the percentages of women aged 15–49 with an educational level more than secondary, (iii) the percentages of children age 12–23 months who received measles vaccine, (iv) the percentages of malnourished children under 5 years, and (vi) the measles cases for each previous year. Conclusion: The study showed some of the determinants of measles risk and revealed areas at high risk through disease mapping. Additionally, the study showed a non-linear temporal distribution of measles risk over the study period. Finally, it was shown that ignoring the measurement errors may yield misleading results. It was recommended that group and geographically targeted intervention, prevention and control strategies can be tailored on the basis these findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a novel approach that uses meteorological information to predict the incidence of influenza in Galicia (Spain). It extends the Generalized Least Squares (GLS) methods in the multivariate framework to functional regression models with dependent errors. These kinds of models are useful when the recent history of the incidence of influenza are readily unavailable (for instance, by delays on the communication with health informants) and the prediction must be constructed by correcting the temporal dependence of the residuals and using more accessible variables. A simulation study shows that the GLS estimators render better estimations of the parameters associated with the regression model than they do with the classical models. They obtain extremely good results from the predictive point of view and are competitive with the classical time series approach for the incidence of influenza. An iterative version of the GLS estimator (called iGLS) was also proposed that can help to model complicated dependence structures. For constructing the model, the distance correlation measure was employed to select relevant information to predict influenza rate mixing multivariate and functional variables. These kinds of models are extremely useful to health managers in allocating resources in advance to manage influenza epidemics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: To describe the comprehensive sex education (CSE) coverage and to evaluate a set of indicators related to knowledge, attitudes, and practices associated with the seven components of the CSE framework among Mexican high-school students. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional survey of a nationally representative sample of students in public and private high schools in Mexico. Questions about CSE coverage and about knowledge, attitudes, and practices related to sexual health were included. We present descriptive statistics for demographic characteristics, exposure to CSE, and sexual health outcomes. We fitted a series of multivariate logistic regression models to examine the association between each CSE component exposure and sexual health outcomes, adjusting for age and sex. Results: There were significant associations between being exposed to each CSE components and the related sexual health outcomes. The strongest one was for identifying effective contraceptives among those exposed to the Sexual and Reproductive Health component (SRH) (OR 4.10; 95%CI[2.93,5.75]). Also, students exposed to the relationships component had 20% higher odds of affirming they could convince their partner to use condoms (OR 1.20; 95%CI[1.05,1.36]). Conclusions: This paper provides evidence of the potential beneficial effects of CSE on attitudes, knowledge, and behaviors regarding sexual and reproductive health among adolescents. In addition, it identifies areas that should be strengthened to increase the positive impact of CSE. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background & aims: Emphasis on adolescent HIV has increased worldwide as antiretroviral treatment has greatly extended life expectancies of HIV-positive children. Few evidence-based guidelines exist on the optimal time to disclose to an adolescent living with HIV (ALHIV); little is known about the medical effects of disclosure. This study looked to determine whether disclosure is associated with improved medical outcomes in ALHIV. Prior work has tended to be qualitative, cross-sectional, and with an emphasis on psychosocial outcomes. This paper addresses the adolescent cohort retrospectively (longitudinally), building upon what is already known about disclosure. Methods: Retrospective, longitudinal clinical record reviews of ALHIV seen at Kericho District Hospital between April 2004 and November 2012 were performed. Patient demographics and clinical outcomes were systematically extracted. The student’s t-test was used to calculate changes in mean CD4 count, antiretroviral therapy (ART), and cotrimoxazole adherence pre- vs. post-disclosure. Linear regression modelling assessed for trends in those clinical outcomes associated with age of disclosure. Results: Ninety-six ALHIV (54 female, 42 male) were included; most (73%) entered care through the outpatient department. Nearly half were cared for by parents, and 20% experienced a change in their primary caregiver. The mean time in the study was 2.47 years; mean number of visits 10.97 per patient over the mean time in the study. Mean disclosure age was 12.34 years. An increase in mean ART adherence percentage was found with disclosure (0.802 vs. 0.917; p = 0.0015). Younger disclosure age was associated with significantly higher mean CD4 counts over the course of the study (p = 0.001), and a nonsignificant trend toward a higher mean ART adherence percentage (p = 0.055). Conclusion: ART adherence and improved immunologic status are both associated with disclosure of HIV infection to adolescent patients. Disclosure of an HIV diagnosis to an adolescent is an important means to improve HIV care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When used correctly and consistently, the male condom offers triple protection from unintended pregnancy and the transmission of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). However, with health funding levels stagnant or falling, it is important to understand the cost and health impact associated with prevention technologies. This study is one of the first to attempt to quantify the cost and combined health impact of condom use, as a means to prevent unwanted pregnancy and to prevent transmission of STIs including HIV. This paper describes the analysis to make the case for investment in the male condom, including the cost, impact and cost-effectiveness by three scenarios (low in which 2015 condom use levels are maintained; medium in which condom use trends are used to predict condom use from 2016–2030; and high in which condom use is scaled up, as part of a package of contraceptives, to meet all unmet need for family planning by 2030 and to 90% for HIV and STI prevention by 2016) for 81 countries from 2015–2030. An annual gap between current and desired use of 10.9 billion condoms was identified (4.6 billion for family planning and 6.3 billion for HIV and STIs). Under a high scenario that completely reduces that gap between current and desired use of 10.9 billion condoms, we found that by 2030 countries could avert 240 million DALYs. The additional cost in the 81 countries through 2030 under the medium scenario is $1.9 billion, and $27.5 billion under the high scenario. Through 2030, the cost-effectiveness ratios are $304 per DALY averted for the medium and $115 per DALY averted for the high scenario. Under the three scenarios described above, our analysis demonstrates the cost-effectiveness of the male condom in preventing unintended pregnancy and HIV and STI new infections. Policy makers should increase budgets for condom programming to increase the health return on investment of scarce resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This is the first study to evaluate the serologic and molecular prevalence of Coxiella burnetii in cattle at national breeding stock farms in South Korea. These government farms have well-organized biosecurity and management systems to prevent livestock diseases. Of the 736 cattle in this study, 77 tested positive for antibodies against C. burnetii antigens (10.5%, 95% CI: 8.3–12.7) and 11 were positive for a C. burnetti infection on PCR analysis (1.5%, 95% CI: 0.6–2.4). Since the 16S rRNA sequences of C. burnetii from all 11 PCR-positive samples were identical, three representative samples (C-CN-3 from the southern region, C-JJ-9 from Jeju Island, and C-CB-37 from the central region) are described in this paper. These three sequences had 99.3–100% identity to those of C. burnetii deposited in GenBank. These sequences clustered with those from USA, Japan, and Greenland, underscoring the sequence similarity among C. burnetii isolates in these countries. Because C. burnetii was detected in cattle at well-managed national breeding stock farms, cattle at non-government operated farms may be more likely to be exposed to C. burnetii in South Korea. Thus, continuous surveillance and control strategies in animals and humans are required to prevent the transmission of C. burnetii to humans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Studies have been conducted in developing countries using SMS to communicate with patients to reduce the number of missed appointments and improve retention in treatment, however; very few have been scaled up. One possible reason for this could be that patients or staff are dissatisfied with the method in some way. This paper reports a study of patients’ and healthcare workers’ (HCW) views on an mHealth intervention aiming to support retention in antiretroviral therapy (ART) and tuberculosis (TB) treatment in Mozambique. Methods: The study was conducted at five healthcare centres in Mozambique. Automated SMS health promotions and reminders were sent to patients in a RCT. A total of 141 patients and 40 HCWs were interviewed. Respondents rated usefulness, perceived benefits, ease of use, satisfaction, and risks of the SMS system using a Likert scale questionnaire. A semi-structured interview guide was followed. Interviews were transcribed and thematic analysis was conducted. Results: Both patients and HCW found the SMS system useful and reliable. Most highly rated positive effects were reducing the number of failures to collect medication and avoiding missing appointments. Patients’ confidence in the system was high. Most perceived the system to improve communication between health-care provider and patient and assist in education and motivation. The automatic recognition of questions from patients and the provision of appropriate answers (a unique feature of this system) was especially appreciated. A majority would recommend the system to other patients or healthcare centres. Risks also were mentioned, mostly by HCW, of unintentional disclosure of health status in cases where patients use shared phones. Conclusions: The results suggest that SMS technology for HIV and TB should be used to transmit reminders for appointments, medications, motivational texts, and health education to increase retention in care. Measures must be taken to reduce risks of privacy intrusion, but these are not a main obstacle for scaling up systems of this kind. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Uganda is among the first to use the Washington Group Short Set of Questions on Disability to identify persons with disabilities in its Demographic and Health Survey. In this paper, we review the HIV Knowledge, Attitudes and Behaviour component of the 2011 Ugandan Demographic and Health Survey, analysing a series of questions comparing those with and without disabilities in relation to HIV/AIDS knowledge, attitudes and practices. We found comparable levels of knowledge on HIV/AIDS for those with and those without disabilities in relation to HIV transmission during delivery (93.89%, 93.26%) and through breastfeeding (89.91%, 90.63%), which may reflect increased attention to reaching the community of persons with disabilities. However, several gaps in the knowledge base of persons with disabilities stood out, including misconceptions of risk of HIV infection through mosquito bites and caring for a relative with HIV in own household (34.39%, 29.86%; p<0.001; 91.53%, 89.00%; p = 0.001, respectively). The issue is not just access to appropriate information but also equitable access to HIV/AIDS services and support. Here we found that persons with multiple disabilities were less likely than individuals without disabilities to return to receive results from their most recent HIV test (0.60[0.41–0.87], p<0.05). HIV testing means little if people do not return for follow-up to know their HIV status and, if necessary, to be connected to available services and supports. Additional findings of note were that persons with disabilities reported having a first sexual encounter at a slightly younger age than peers without disabilities; and persons with disabilities also reported having a sexually transmitted disease (STD) within the last 12 months at significantly higher rates than peers without disabilities (1.38[1.18–1.63], p<0.01), despite reporting comparable knowledge of the need for safer sex practices. This analysis is among the first to use HIV/AIDS-related questions from Demographic Health Surveys to provide information about persons with disabilities in Uganda in comparison to those without disabilities. These findings present a more complex and nuanced understanding of persons with disabilities and HIV/AIDS. If persons with disabilities are becoming sexually active earlier, are more likely to have an STD within the preceding 12 month period and are less likely to receive HIV test results, it is important to understand why. Recommendations are also made for the inclusion of disability measures in Uganda’s AIDS Indicator Survey to provide cyclical and systematic data on disability and HIV/AIDS, including HIV prevalence amongst persons with disabilities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The study aimed to assess the feasibility of conducting large scale HIV prevention clinical trials in Mozambique by measuring HIV prevalence and incidence among women of reproductive age. This paper describes the baseline socio-demographic characteristics of the Mozambique Microbicides Development Programme (MDP) feasibility cohort, baseline prevalence of HIV and other STIs, and HIV incidence. Methods: The Mozambique MDP feasibility study was conducted from September 2007 to August 2009 in urban Mavalane and rural Manhiça, in Southern Mozambique. Sexually active, HIV negative women aged 18 years and above were recruited to attend the study clinic every 4 weeks for a total of 40 weeks. At baseline, we collected demographic and sexual behaviour data, samples to test for sexually transmitted infections (STI) and conducted HIV rapid testing. STI and HIV testing were repeated at clinical follow-up visits. We describe HIV prevalence of women at screening, the demographic, behavioural and clinical characteristics of women at enrolment, and HIV incidence during follow-up. Results: We screened 793 women (369 at Mavalane and 424 at Manhiça) and enrolled 505 eligible women (254 at Mavalane and 251 at Manhiça). Overall HIV prevalence at screening was 17%; 10% at Mavalane and 22% at Manhiça. Women screened at Manhiça were twice as likely as women screened at Mavalane to be HIV positive and HIV positive status was associated with younger age (18–34), lower educational level, not using a reliable method of contraception and being Zionist compared to other Christian religions. At enrolment contraceptive use was low in both clinics at 19% in Mavalane and 21% in Manhiça, as was reported condom use at last sex act at 48% in Mavalane and 25% in Manhiça. At enrolment, 8% of women tested positive for Trichomonas vaginalis, 2% for Neisseria gonorrhoeae, 4% for Chlamydia trachomatis and 46% for bacterial vaginosis. In Manhiça, 8% of women had active syphilis at screening. HIV incidence was 4.3 per 100 person years at Mavalane and 9.2 per 100 person years at Manhiça. Conclusions: We demonstrated the ability to recruit a cohort of women at risk of HIV who were willing to participate in clinical research. The high HIV incidence necessitates additional action around HIV prevention for women and offers opportunities to evaluate the impact of available prevention options, such as treatment as prevention and oral PrEP. The high HIV incidence and STI prevalence also offers opportunities to evaluate the added benefit of potential prevention options such as new formulations of oral PrEP, vaginal microbicides (also called topical PrEP), vaccines, and multi-purpose technologies for HIV, STIs and contraception. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Whereas the number of people newly infected by HIV is continuing to decline globally, the epidemic continues to expand in many parts of the world. As the HIV/AIDS epidemic has matured in many countries, it is believed that the proportion of new infections occurring within couples has risen. Across countries, including Mozambique, a sizeable proportion of couples with HIV infection are discordant. A serodiscordant couple is a couple in which one partner has tested positive for HIV and the other has not. To describe the HIV serodiscordance among couples, a variety of association measures can be used. In this paper, we propose the serodiscordance measure as a new alternative measure. Focus is on the specification of flexible marginal and random effects models for multivariate correlated binary data together with a full-likelihood estimation method, to adequately and directly describe the measure of interest. Fitting joint models allows examining the effects of different risk factors and other covariates on the probability to be HIV positive for each member within a couple, and estimating common effects for both probabilities more efficiently, while accounting for the association between their infection status. Moreover, the interpretation of the proposed association parameter SDM is more direct and relevant and effects of covariates can be studied as well. Results show that the HIV prevalence for the province where a couple was located as well as the union number for the woman within a couple are factors associated with HIV serodiscordance. These findings are important for the Mozambican public health policy makers to design national prevention plans, which include policies to stimulate regular HIV testing for couples as well as adolescents and young adults, prior to getting married or living together as a couple. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Aedes aegypti is a container-inhabiting mosquito and a vector of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses. In 2009 several cases of autochthonous dengue transmission were reported in Key West, Florida, USA prompting a comprehensive response to control A. aegypti. In Key West, larvae of this mosquito develop in containers around human habitations which can be numerous and labor intensive to find and treat. Aerial applications of larvicide covering large areas in a short time can be an efficient and economical method to control A. aegypti. Bacillus thuringiensis israelensis (Bti) is a bacterial larvicide which is highly target specific and appropriate for wide area spraying over urban areas, but to date, there are no studies that evaluate aerial spraying of Bti to control container mosquitoes like A. aegypti. Methodology: This paper examines the effectiveness of aerial larvicide applications using VectoBac® WG, a commercially available Bti formulation, for A. aegypti control in an urban setting in the USA. Droplet characteristics and spray drop deposition were evaluated in Key West, Florida, USA. The mortality of A. aegypti in containers placed under canopy in an urban environment was also evaluated. Efficacy of multiple larvicide applications on adult female A. aegypti population reduction was compared between an untreated control and treatment site. Conclusions: Droplet characteristics showed that small droplets can penetrate through dense canopy to reach small containers. VectoBac WG droplets reached small containers under heavy canopy in sufficient amounts to cause > 55% mortality on all application days and >90% mortality on 3 of 5 application days while controls had <5% mortality. Aerial applications of VectoBac WG caused significant decrease in adult female populations throughout the summer and during the 38th week (last application) the difference in adult female numbers between untreated and treated sites was >50%. Aerial larvicide applications using VectoBac WG can cover wide areas in a short period of time and can be effective in controlling A. aegypti and reducing A. aegypti-borne transmission in urban areas similar to Key West, Florida, USA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Migrants account for 35% of HIV diagnoses in the European Union (ECDC/WHO 2014). Little is known about the impact of such a lifelong infection diagnosis on lives that are already disrupted by migration. In this paper, we assess the impact of HIV diagnosis on activity, union, well-being among African migrants living in France, the second group most affected by HIV after MSM. We compare it with the impact of the diagnosis of Hepatitis B, another lifelong infection affecting African migrants. Methods: We use the ANRS PARCOURS survey, a retrospective life-event survey led in 2012–2013 in 74 health structures in Paris greater area which collected 926 life histories of Sub-Saharan migrants living with HIV and 779 with Hepatitis B. We modelled the probability year by year since 18 years of age until data collection to lose one’s activity, to experience a conjugal break up and degradation of well-being and we estimated the impact of migration and of HIV and Hepatitis B diagnoses on these probabilities, after adjustment on other factors, thanks to discrete-time logistic regressions. Results: Migration entailed loss of activity and conjugal break up, though HIV diagnosis after migration did not statistically impact on these outcomes. Yet HIV diagnosis had a massive negative impact on well-being (aOR = 11.31 [4.64–27.56] for men and 5.75 [2.79–11.86] for women). This negative impact on well-being tended to diminish for persons diagnosed after 2004. The negative impact of HIV diagnosis on African migrants’ well-being seems to be attenuated in the last decade, which hints at a normalization of the subjective experience of HIV diagnosis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: As the world is making progress towards elimination of mother-to-child transmission of HIV, poor coverage of PMTCT services in Nigeria remains a major challenge. In order to address this, scale-up was planned with activities organized into 3 phases. This paper describes the process undertaken in eight high burden Nigerian states to rapidly close PMTCT coverage gaps at facility and population levels between February 2013 and March 2014. Methods: Activities were grouped into three phases–pre-assessment phase (engagement of a wide range of stakeholders), assessment (rapid health facility assessment, a cross sectional survey using mixed methods conducted in the various states between Feb and May 2013 and impact modelling), and post-assessment (drawing up costed state operational plans to achieve eMTCT by 2015, data-driven smart scale-up). Results: Over a period of 10 months starting June 2013, 2044 facilities were supported to begin provision of PMTCT services. This increased facility coverage from 8% to 50%. A 246% increase was also recorded in the number of pregnant women and their families who have access to HIV testing and counselling in the context of PMTCT. Similarly, access to antiretrovirals for PMTCT has witnessed a 152% increase in these eight states between October 2013 and October 2014. Conclusion: A data-driven and participatory approach can be used to rapidly scale-up PMTCT services at community and facility levels in this region. These results present us with hope for real progress in Nigeria. We are confident that the efforts described here will contribute significantly to eliminating new pediatric HIV infection in Nigeria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Chongqing is the largest municipality and located in Southwestern of China, with over 30 million registered inhabitants. There are few reports regarding the epidemiology of influenza in Chongqing. The objective of the paper is to explore the epidemiology of influenza in Chongqing, in order to provide scientific basis for prevention and control of influenza. Methodology /Principal Findings: From 2011 to 2015, we collected information on influenza-like illness (ILI) patients fulfilling the case definition, and took nasalpharyngeal or throat swabs specimens from ILI cases per week at the 7 sentinel hospitals. Specimens were tested by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction(RT-PCR) for influenza. Descriptive epidemiology was applied to analyze the epidemiology and etiology of influenza. A total of 9,696,212 cases were enrolled, of which 111,589 were ILI. Of those 24,868 samples from ILI cases, 13.3% (3,314/24,868) tested positive for influenza virus (65.7% influenza A, 34.1% influenza B, and 0.2% influenza A and B co-infection). Among the influenza A viruses, 71.3% were seasonal influenza A(H3N2) and 28.7% were influenza A(H1N1)pdm09. No cases of seasonal A(H1N1) were detected. The isolation rate was highest in children aged 5–14 years old. Influenza activity consistently peaked during January-March in 2011–2015, and June-July in 2012, 2014 and 2015. Conclusions: Influenza is an important public health problem among ILI patients in Chongqing, especially among school-aged children. It might be beneficial to prioritize influenza vaccination for school-aged children and implement the school-based intervention to prevent and mitigating influenza outbreaks in Chongqing, particularly during the seasonal peaks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this study was to test the feasibility of undertaking a full population investigation into the prevalence, incidence, and persistence of oral Human Papilloma Virus (HPV) in Scotland via dental settings. Male and female patients aged 16–69 years were recruited by Research Nurses in 3 primary care and dental outreach teaching centres and 2 General Dental Practices (GDPs), and by Dental Care Teams in 2 further GDPs. Participants completed a questionnaire (via an online tablet computer or paper) with socioeconomic, lifestyle, and sexual history items; and were followed up at 6-months for further questionnaire through appointment or post/online. Saline oral gargle/rinse samples, collected at baseline and follow-up, were subject to molecular HPV genotyping centrally. 1213 dental patients were approached and 402 individuals consented (participation rate 33.1%). 390 completed the baseline questionnaire and 380 provided a baseline oral specimen. Follow-up rate was 61.6% at 6 months. While recruitment was no different in Research Nurse vs Dental Care Team models the Nurse model ensured more rapid recruitment. There were relatively few missing responses in the questionnaire and high levels of disclosure of risk behaviours (99% answered some of the sexual history questions). Data linkage of participant data to routine health records including HPV vaccination data was successful with 99.1% matching. Oral rinse/gargle sample collection and subsequent HPV testing was feasible. Preliminary analyses found over 95% of samples to be valid for molecular HPV detection prevalence of oral HPV infection of 5.5% (95%CI 3.7, 8.3). It is feasible to recruit and follow-up dental patients largely representative / reflective of the wider population, suggesting it would be possible to undertake a study to investigate the prevalence, incidence, and determinants of oral HPV infection in dental settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To effectively and efficiently reduce the morbidity and mortality that may be caused by outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases, it is very important for public health agencies to make informed decisions for controlling the spread of the disease. Such decisions must incorporate various kinds of intervention strategies, such as vaccinations, school closures and border restrictions. Recently, researchers have paid increased attention to searching for effective vaccine distribution strategies for reducing the effects of pandemic outbreaks when resources are limited. Most of the existing research work has been focused on how to design an effective age-structured epidemic model and to select a suitable vaccine distribution strategy to prevent the propagation of an infectious virus. Models that evaluate age structure effects are common, but models that additionally evaluate geographical effects are less common. In this paper, we propose a new SEIR (susceptible—exposed—infectious šC recovered) model, named the hybrid SEIR-V model (HSEIR-V), which considers not only the dynamics of infection prevalence in several age-specific host populations, but also seeks to characterize the dynamics by which a virus spreads in various geographic districts. Several vaccination strategies such as different kinds of vaccine coverage, different vaccine releasing times and different vaccine deployment methods are incorporated into the HSEIR-V compartmental model. We also design four hybrid vaccination distribution strategies (based on population size, contact pattern matrix, infection rate and infectious risk) for controlling the spread of viral infections. Based on data from the 2009–2010 H1N1 influenza epidemic, we evaluate the effectiveness of our proposed HSEIR-V model and study the effects of different types of human behaviour in responding to epidemics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: This study analysed clinical and sociodemographic aspects and follow-up for notified cases of tuberculosis (TB) and explored inequalities in incidence rates and outcome by colour or race and the geographic macro-regions of Brazil. Methods: This paper reports the results of a population-based descriptive epidemiological study of all notified cases of TB in Brazil during the period from 01/01/2008 to 31/12/2011. We analysed sociodemographic and clinical variables according to colour or race (white, black, Asian, mixed, and indigenous) and geographic macro-regions of the country (North, Northeast, Central-West, South, and Southeast). Results: During the study period, the average incidence of TB in Brazil was 36.7 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, with the highest rates occurring in the North and Southeast regions. The analysis of TB notifications by colour or race revealed that the indigenous population presented the highest incidence rates in all macro-regions except the South, where higher rates were reported in black patients. ‘Cured’ was the most frequently reported treatment outcome for all skin colour categories. The highest cure rate occurred among the indigenous population (76.8%), while the lowest cure rate occurred among the black population (70.7%). Rates of treatment default were highest among blacks (10.5%) and lowest among the indigenous population (6.9%). However, the fatality rate was similar across race categories, varying between 2.8% and 3.8% for whites and the indigenous population, respectively. The lowest cure rates were observed when follow-up was inadequate (58.3%), and the highest was observed when the follow-up was classified as excellent (96.8%). Conclusions: This study revealed that—apart from the heterogeneous distribution of TB among the Brazilian macro-regions—ethnic-racial inequalities exist in terms of clinical-epidemiological characteristics and incidence rates as well as follow-up for cases undergoing treatment. The highest rates of TB occurred among the indigenous people. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2011 a new Investment Framework was proposed that described how the scale-up of key HIV interventions could dramatically reduce new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths in low and middle income countries by 2015. This framework included ambitious coverage goals for prevention and treatment services for 2015, resulting in a reduction of new HIV infections by more than half, in line with the goals of the declaration of the UN High Level Meeting in June 2011. However, the approach suggested a leveling in the number of new infections at about 1 million annually—far from the UNAIDS goal of ending AIDS by 2030. In response, UNAIDS has developed the Fast-Track approach that is intended to provide a roadmap to the actions required to achieve this goal. The Fast-Track approach is predicated on a rapid scale-up of focused, effective prevention and treatment services over the next 5 years and then maintaining a high level of programme implementation until 2030. Fast-Track aims to reduce new infections and AIDS-related deaths by 90% from 2010 to 2030 and proposes a set of biomedical, behavioral and enabling intervention targets for 2020 and 2030 to achieve that goal, including the rapid scale-up initiative for antiretroviral treatment known as 90-90-90. Compared to a counterfactual scenario of constant coverage for all services at early-2015 levels, the Fast-Track approach would avert 18 million HIV infections and 11 million deaths from 2016 to 2030 globally. This paper describes the analysis that produced these targets and the estimated resources needed to achieve them in low- and middle-income countries. It indicates that it is possible to achieve these goals with a significant push to achieve rapid scale-up of key interventions between now and 2020. The annual resources required from all sources would rise to US$7.4Bn in low-income countries, US$8.2Bn in lower middle-income countries and US$10.5Bn in upper-middle-income-countries by 2020 before declining approximately 9% by 2030. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The timing of the biannual WHO influenza vaccine composition selection and production cycle has been historically directed to the influenza seasonality patterns in the temperate regions of the northern and southern hemispheres. Influenza activity, however, is poorly understood in the tropics with multiple peaks and identifiable year-round activity. The evidence-base needed to take informed decisions on vaccination timing and vaccine formulation is often lacking for the tropics and subtropics. This paper aims to assess influenza seasonality in the tropics and subtropics. It explores geographical grouping of countries into vaccination zones based on optimal timing of influenza vaccination. Methods: Influenza seasonality was assessed by different analytic approaches (weekly proportion of positive cases, time series analysis, etc.) using FluNet and national surveillance data. In case of discordance in the seasonality assessment, consensus was built through discussions with in-country experts. Countries with similar onset periods of their primary influenza season were grouped into geographical zones. Results: The number and period of peak activity was ascertained for 70 of the 138 countries in the tropics and subtropics. Thirty-seven countries had one and seventeen countries had two distinct peaks. Countries near the equator had secondary peaks or even identifiable year-round activity. The main influenza season in most of South America and Asia started between April and June. The start of the main season varied widely in Africa (October and December in northern Africa, April and June in Southern Africa and a mixed pattern in tropical Africa). Eight “influenza vaccination zones” (two each in America and Asia, and four in Africa and Middle East) were defined with recommendations for vaccination timing and vaccine formulation. The main limitation of our study is that FluNet and national surveillance data may lack the granularity to detect sub-national variability in seasonality patterns. Conclusion: Distinct influenza seasonality patterns, though complex, could be ascertained for most countries in the tropics and subtropics using national surveillance data. It may be possible to group countries into zones based on similar recommendations for vaccine timing and formulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

HIV incidence estimates are used to monitor HIV-1 infection in the United States. Use of laboratory biomarkers that distinguish recent from longstanding infection to quantify HIV incidence rely on having accurate knowledge of the average time that individuals spend in a transient state of recent infection between seroconversion and reaching a specified biomarker cutoff value. This paper describes five estimation procedures from two general statistical approaches, a survival time approach and an approach that fits binomial models of the probability of being classified as recently infected, as a function of time since seroconversion. We compare these procedures for estimating the mean duration of recent infection (MDRI) for two biomarkers used by the U.S. National HIV Surveillance System for determination of HIV incidence, the Aware BED EIA HIV-1 incidence test (BED) and the avidity-based, modified Bio-Rad HIV-1/HIV-2 plus O ELISA (BRAI) assay. Collectively, 953 specimens from 220 HIV-1 subtype B seroconverters, taken from 5 cohorts, were tested with a biomarker assay. Estimates of MDRI using the non-parametric survival approach were 198.4 days (SD 13.0) for BED and 239.6 days (SD 13.9) for BRAI using cutoff values of 0.8 normalized optical density and 30%, respectively. The probability of remaining in the recent state as a function of time since seroconversion, based upon this revised statistical approach, can be applied in the calculation of annual incidence in the United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Female sex workers (FSWs) are the second most affected population by HIV in Iran. However, their HIV testing practices are poorly understood. The aim of this study was to investigate testing and its associated factors among HIV negative FSWs. Materials and Methods: Using facility based sampling, 1005 FSWs were recruited in 14 cities of Iran in 2010. Biological and survey data were collected through dried blood spot testing and standardized risk assessment questionnaire, respectively. In this paper, the prevalence of HIV testing and its correlates were explored among 714 HIV-negative FSWs using descriptive statistics and logistic regression models. Results: Overall 65.4% had not tested in the past year. Only 27.5% had tested in the past year and received their results. FSWs who perceived themselves at risk of HIV (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) = 8.35, 95% CI: 1.46, 47.6), had received free condom during past year (AOR = 3.90, 95% CI: 1.67, 9.14), started sex work at an older age (AOR18–24 = 2.83, 95% CI: 1.14, 7.0; AOR >24 = 2.76, 95% CI: 1.11, 6.84), and knew an HIV testing site (AOR = 5.67, 95% CI: 2.60, 12.4) had a significantly higher chance of having a recent HIV test result. Conclusions: Less than one third of FSWs in Iran knew their recent HIV status. Interventions to help FSWs evaluate their potential risk for HIV and integrate HIV testing services in condom distribution programs, could be viable strategies in increasing HIV testing uptake among FSWs. Health policy makers should also try to de-stigmatize HIV testing, identify the barriers to HIV testing, and make HIV testing sites more visible to FSWs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The role of human papilloma virus (HPV) in oral lichen planus (OLP) is controversial. Objectives: The primary aim of the current study is to calculate the pooled risk estimates of HPV infection in OLP when compared with healthy controls. Methods: Bibliographic searches were conducted in three electronic databases. Articles on the association between HPV and OLP were selected from case-control studies or cross-sectional studies, following predefined criteria. Pooled data were analyzed by calculating odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). Results: Of the 233 publications identified, 22 case-control studies met the inclusion criteria. Collectively, 835 cases and 734 controls were available for analysis. The summary estimate showed that OLP patients have significantly higher HPV prevalence (OR: 6.83; 95% CI: 4.15–11.27) than healthy controls. In subgroup analyses, the association of HPV and OLP varied significantly by geographic populations. The ORs ranged from 2.43 to 132.04. The correlation of HPV and erosive-atrophic oral lichen planus (EA-OLP) (OR: 9.34) was comparable and well above that of HPV and non-EA-OLP (OR: 4.32). Among HPV genotypes, HPV 16 showed an extremely strong association with OLP (OR: 11.27), and HPV 18 showed a relatively strong one (OR: 6.54). Conclusion: In conclusion, a significant association was found between HPV and OLP. The strength of the association varied across geographic populations, clinical types of OLP, and HPV genotypes. The results suggest that HPV might play an important causal role in OLP and in its malignant to progression. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In Indian context, limited attempts have been made to estimate the mortality risks among people living with HIV (PLHIV). We estimated the rates of mortality among PLHIV covered under an integrated HIV-prevention cum care and support programme implemented in Karnataka state, India, and attempted to identify the key programme components associated with the higher likelihood of their survival. Methods: Retrospective programme data of 55,801 PLHIV registered with the Samastha programme implemented in Karnataka state during 2006–11 was used. Kaplan-Meier survival methods were used to estimate the ten years expected survival probabilities and Cox-proportional hazard model was used to examine the factors associated with risk of mortality among PLHIV. We also calculated mortality rates (per 1000 person-year) across selected demographic and clinical parameters. Results: Of the total PLHIV registered with the programme, about nine percent died within the 5-years of programme period with an overall death rate of 38 per 1000 person-years. The mortality rate was higher among males, aged 18 and above, among illiterates, and those residing in rural areas. While the presence of co-infections such as Tuberculosis leads to higher mortality rate, adherence to ART was significantly associated with reduction in overall death rate. Cox proportional hazard model revealed that increase in CD4 cell counts and exposure to intensive care and support programme for at least two years can bring significant reduction in risk of death among PLHIV [(hazard ratio: 0.234; CI: 0.211–0.260) & (hazard ratio: 0.062; CI: 0.054–0.071), respectively] even after adjusting the effect of other socio-demographic, economic and health related confounders. Conclusion: Study confirms that while residing in rural areas and presence of co-infection significantly increases the mortality risk among PLHIV, adherence to ART and improvement in CD4 counts led to significant reduction in their mortality risk. Longer exposure to the intervention contributed significantly to reduce mortality among PLHIV. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: India has recently introduced telemedicine initiatives to enhance access to specialized care at a low cost for the pediatric HIV patients, who face multiple challenges due to growing disease burden and limited preparedness of the health system to address it. There are limited evidences on the cost-effectiveness of these interventions. This study was undertaken in Maharashtra, a province, located in the western region of the country, to inform policy regarding the effectiveness of this programme. The objective was to estimate the unit cost of ART services for pediatric HIV patients and examine the efficiency in the use of resource and treatment compliance resulting from telemedicine initiatives in pediatric HIV compared to usual ART services. Methods: We selected 6 ART centers (3 from linked centers linked to Pediatric HIV Centre of Excellence (PCoE) and 3 from non-linked centers) randomly from three high, middle and low ART centers, categorized on the basis of case load in each arm. A bottom up costing methodology was adopted to understand the unit cost of services. Loss to follow up and timeliness of the visits were compared between the two arms and were linked to the cost. Results: The average cost per-visit was INR 1803 in the linked centers and that for the non-linked centers was INR 3412. There has been 5 percentage point improvement in lost to follow-up in the linked centers compared to non-linked centers against a back-drop of a reduction in per-pediatric patient cost of INR 557. The linkage has resulted in increase in timeliness of the visits in linked centers compared to non-linked centers. Discussion and conclusion: The telemedicine linkage led to an increase in the case load leading to a decrease in cost. The evidence on efficiency in the use of resource and improvement in treatment compliance as suggested by this study could be used to scale up this initiative. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Guyana expanded its HIV response in 2005 but the epidemiology of hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections has not been characterized. Methods: The 2011 Seroprevalence and Behavioral Epidemiology Risk Survey for HIV and STIs collected biologic specimens with demographic and behavioral data from a representative sample of Guyana military personnel. Diagnostics included commercial serum: HIV antibody; total antibody to hepatitis B core (anti-HBc); IgM anti-HBc; hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg); anti-HBs; antibody to HCV with confirmatory testing; and HBV DNA sequencing with S gene fragment phylogenetic analysis. Chi-square, p-values and prevalence ratios determined statistical significance. Results: Among 480 participants providing serologic specimens, 176 (36.7%) tested anti-HBc-positive. Overall, 19 (4.0%) participants tested HBsAg-positive; 17 (89.5%) of the HBsAg-positive participants also had detectable anti-HBc, including 1 (5.3%) IgM anti-HBc-positive male. Four (6.8%) females with available HBV testing were HBsAg-positive, all aged 23–29 years. Sixteen (16, 84.2%) HBsAg-positive participants had sufficient specimen for DNA testing. All 16 had detectable HBV DNA, 4 with viral load >2x104IU/ml. Sequencing found: 12 genotype (gt) A1 with 99.9% genetic identity between 1 IgM anti-HBc-positive and 1 anti-HBc-negative; 2 gtD1; and 2 with insufficient specimen. No statistically significant associations between risk factors and HBV infection were identified. Conclusions: Integrated HIV surveillance identified likely recent adult HBV transmission, current HBV infection among females of reproductive age, moderate HBV infection prevalence (all gtA1 and D1), no HCV infections and low HIV frequency among Guyana military personnel. Integrated HIV surveillance helped characterize HBV and HCV epidemiology, including probable recent transmission, prompting targeted responses to control ongoing HBV transmission and examination of hepatitis B vaccine policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Microcephaly and Zika Virus infection (ZIKV) were declared Public Health Emergencies of International Concern by the World Health Organization in 2016. Brazil was considered the epicenter of the outbreak. However, the occurrence of both ZIKV and microcephaly in Brazil was not evenly distributed across the country. To better understand this phenomenon, we investigate regional characteristics at the municipal level that can be associated with the incidence of microcephaly, our response variable, and its relationship with ZIKV and other predictors. All epidemiological data in this study was provided by the Ministry of Health official database (DATASUS). Microcephaly was only confirmed after birth and the diagnostic was made regardless of the mother’s ZIKV status. Using exploratory spatial data analysis and spatial autoregressive Tobit models, our results show that microcephaly incidence is significantly, at 95% confidence level, related not only to ZIKV, but also to access to primary care, population size, gross national product, mobility and environmental attributes of the municipalities. There is also a significant spatial autocorrelation of the dependent variable. The results indicate that municipalities that show a high incidence of microcephaly tend to be clustered in space and that incidence of microcephaly varies considerably across regions when correlated only with ZIKV, i.e. that ZIKV alone cannot explain the differences in microcephaly across regions and their correlation is mediated by regional attributes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: This is the first large-scale assessment of the implementation of HIV Rapid Test Quality Improvement Initiative in South Africa. Methods: We used a quasi-experimental one group post-test only design. The intervention implemented starting April 2014 comprised health-care worker training on quality assurance (QA) of HIV rapid testing and enrolment of the facilities in proficiency testing (PT), targeting 2,077 healthcare facilities in 32 high HIV burden districts. Following the intervention, two consecutive rounds of site assessments were undertaken. The first, conducted after a median of 7.5 months following the training, included 1,915 facilities that participated in the QA training, while the second, conducted after a median of one-year following the first-round assessment included 517 (27.0%) of the 1,915 facilities. In both assessments, the Stepwise-Process-for-Improving-the-quality-of-HIV-Rapid-Testing (SPI-RT) checklist was used to score facilities’ performance in 7 domains: training, physical facility, safety, pre-testing, testing, post-testing and external quality assessment. Facilities’ level of readiness for national certification was assessed. Result: Between 2016 and 2017, there were four PT cycles. PT participation increased from 32.4% (620/1,915) in 2016 to 91.5% (1,753/1,915) in 2017. In each PT cycle, PT results were returned by 76%–87% of facilities and a satisfactory result (>80%) was achieved by ≥95% of facilities. In the SPI-RT assessment, in round-one, 22.3% of facilities were close to or eligible for national certification—this significantly increased to 38.8% in round-two (P-value<0.001). The median SPI-RT score for the domains HIV pre-testing (83.3%) and post-testing (72.2%) remained the same between the two rounds. The median score for the testing domain increased by 5.6% (to 77.8%). Conclusion: Facilities performance on the domains that are critical for accuracy of diagnosis (i.e. pre-testing, testing and post-testing) remained largely unchanged. This study provided several recommendations to improve QA implementation in South Africa, including the need to improve routine use of internal quality control for corrective actions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: The Accelerated Development of VAccine beNefit-risk Collaboration in Europe (ADVANCE) is a public private collaboration aiming to develop and test a system for rapid benefit-risk (B/R) monitoring of vaccines, using existing electronic healthcare record (eHR) databases in Europe. Part of the data in such sources is missing due to incomplete follow-up hampering the accurate estimation of vaccination coverage. We compared different methods for coverage estimation from eHR databases; naïve period prevalence, complete case period prevalence, period prevalence adjusted for follow-up time, Kaplan-Meier (KM) analysis and (adjusted) inverse probability weighing (IPW). Methods: We created simulation scenarios with different proportions of completeness of follow-up. Both completeness independent and dependent from vaccination date and status were considered. The root mean squared error (RMSE) and relative difference between the estimated and true coverage were used to assess the performance of the different methods for each of the scenarios. We included data examples on the vaccination coverage of human papilloma virus and pertussis component containing vaccines from the Spanish BIFAP database. Results: Under completeness independent from vaccination date or status, several methods provided estimates with bias close to zero. However, when dependence between completeness of follow-up and vaccination date or status was present, all methods generated biased estimates. The IPW/CDF methods were generally the least biased. Preference for a specific method should be based on the type of censoring and type of dependence between completeness of follow-up and vaccination. Additional insights into these aspects, might be gained by applying several methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]