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The safety of highly aggregated tourist crowds is a challenging and important issue. This paper not only provided a comprehensive analysis of the accidents of highly aggregated tourist crowds but also determined the occurrence mechanism and coping paths. Based on the analysis of multiple cases, we found that the variable status of highly aggregated tourist crowds was the result of the interaction of three main elements: multisource pressure, state mutations and management responses. A series of factors interact and result in accidents, and the lack of a management response or a low-quality management response is the root cause of such accidents. A high-quality management response is a basic safety precaution for highly aggregated tourist crowds. Therefore, forming a virtuous circle of multisource pressure, state mutations and management responses is an effective path for coping with accidents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The body of science evaluating the potential impacts of unconventional natural gas development (UNGD) has grown significantly in recent years, although many data gaps remain. Still, a broad empirical understanding of the impacts is beginning to emerge amidst a swell of research. The present categorical assessment provides an overview of the peer-reviewed scientific literature from 2009–2015 as it relates to the potential impacts of UNGD on public health, water quality, and air quality. We have categorized all available original research during this time period in an attempt to understand the weight and direction of the scientific literature. Our results indicate that at least 685 papers have been published in peer-reviewed scientific journals that are relevant to assessing the impacts of UNGD. 84% of public health studies contain findings that indicate public health hazards, elevated risks, or adverse health outcomes; 69% of water quality studies contain findings that indicate potential, positive association, or actual incidence of water contamination; and 87% of air quality studies contain findings that indicate elevated air pollutant emissions and/or atmospheric concentrations. This paper demonstrates that the weight of the findings in the scientific literature indicates hazards and elevated risks to human health as well as possible adverse health outcomes associated with UNGD. There are limitations to this type of assessment and it is only intended to provide a snapshot of the scientific knowledge based on the available literature. However, this work can be used to identify themes that lie in or across studies, to prioritize future research, and to provide an empirical foundation for policy decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Biosensor-based detection provides a rapid and low-cost alternative to conventional analytical methods for revealing the presence of the contaminants in water as well as solid matrices. Although important to be detected, small analytes (few hundreds of Daltons) are an issue in biosensing since the signal they induce in the transducer, and specifically in a Quartz-Crystal Microbalance, is undetectable. A pesticide like parathion (M = 292 Da) is a typical example of contaminant for which a signal amplification procedure is desirable. Methods/Findings: The ballasting of the analyte by gold nanoparticles has been already applied to heavy target as proteins or bacteria to improve the limit of detection. In this paper, we extend the application of such a method to small analytes by showing that once the working surface of a Quartz-Crystal Microbalance (QCM) has been properly functionalized, a limit of detection lower than 1 ppb is reached for parathion. The effective surface functionalization is achieved by immobilizing antibodies upright oriented on the QCM gold surface by a simple photochemical technique (Photonic Immobilization Technique, PIT) based on the UV irradiation of the antibodies, whereas a simple protocol provided by the manufacturer is applied to functionalize the gold nanoparticles. Thus, in a non-competitive approach, the small analyte is made detectable by weighing it down through a “sandwich protocol” with a second antibody tethered to heavy gold nanoparticles. The immunosensor has been proved to be effective against the parathion while showing no cross reaction when a mixture of compounds very similar to parathion is analyzed. Conclusion/Significance: The immunosensor described in this paper can be easily applied to any small molecule for which polyclonal antibodies are available since both the functionalization procedure of the QCM probe surface and gold nanoparticle can be applied to any IgG, thereby making our device of general application in terms of target analyte. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China is facing severe pressure on its water resources and water environments. Calculating the industrial water efficiency of each province is an important index for the central government to evaluate local governments. In the traditional water resources evaluation index, the industrial water use efficiency and pollutant discharge are evaluated separately. In this paper, we collected industrial input data, output data and pollutant discharge data with a four-stage data envelopment analysis to calculate China's industrial water use efficiency with and without considering pollutant discharge, and then analyzed the factors influencing the industrial water use efficiency. The results show that the eastern coastal provinces of China have the highest water use efficiency and are less affected by pollutant discharge than other provinces. The industrial water use efficiency of the central and western provinces is lower than that of the other provinces, and the industrial water use efficiency in the central provinces is greatly affected by pollutant discharge. Factor endowment, economic development level, scientific and technological progress, industrial structure, proportion of foreign investment, water consumption per 10000 yuan of value-added by industry, industrial sewage treatment capacity and educational investment have a significant influence on the industrial water use efficiency of China. We suggest that the government strengthen the construction of sewage plants and other related infrastructure in central provinces when conducting the industrial transfer of heavy polluting enterprises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the heterogeneous effects of exchange rate and stock market on carbon emission allowance price in four emissions trading scheme pilots in China. We employ a panel quantile regression model, which can describe both individual and distributional heterogeneity. The empirical results illustrate that the effects of explanatory variables on carbon emission allowance price is heterogeneous along the whole quantiles. Specifically, exchange rate has a negative effect on carbon emission allowance price at lower quantiles, while becomes a positive effect at higher quantiles. In addition, a negative effect exists between domestic stock market and carbon emission allowance price, and the intensity decreasing along with the increase of quantile. By contrast, an increasing positive effect is discovered between European stock market and domestic carbon emission allowance prices. Finally, heterogeneous effects on carbon emission allowance price can also be proved in European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU-ETS). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The selection of seismic attributes is a key process in reservoir prediction because the prediction accuracy relies on the reliability and credibility of the seismic attributes. However, effective selection method for useful seismic attributes is still a challenge. This paper presents a novel selection method of seismic attributes for reservoir prediction based on the gray relational degree (GRD) and support vector machine (SVM). The proposed method has a two-hierarchical structure. In the first hierarchy, the primary selection of seismic attributes is achieved by calculating the GRD between seismic attributes and reservoir parameters, and the GRD between the seismic attributes. The principle of the primary selection is that these seismic attributes with higher GRD to the reservoir parameters will have smaller GRD between themselves as compared to those with lower GRD to the reservoir parameters. Then the SVM is employed in the second hierarchy to perform an interactive error verification using training samples for the purpose of determining the final seismic attributes. A real-world case study was conducted to evaluate the proposed GRD-SVM method. Reliable seismic attributes were selected to predict the coalbed methane (CBM) content in southern Qinshui basin, China. In the analysis, the instantaneous amplitude, instantaneous bandwidth, instantaneous frequency, and minimum negative curvature were selected, and the predicted CBM content was fundamentally consistent with the measured CBM content. This real-world case study demonstrates that the proposed method is able to effectively select seismic attributes, and improve the prediction accuracy. Thus, the proposed GRD-SVM method can be used for the selection of seismic attributes in practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The quandong or native peach (Santalum acuminatum R.Br.) has been recognised as an important and tasty food resource among Aboriginal Australians in arid and semi-arid areas of southern Australia. It is valued for its fruit that is consumed raw or dried, and for its kernel, which is eaten raw or ground into paste for medicinal and skin care purposes. This paper reports on a study of ground stone implements within the Murray Darling Basin that has identified quandong stones as a distinct type of implement made specifically for the efficient cracking of quandong nuts. Data are presented on 1,327 ground stone implements from collections in 12 different locations in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB), an area almost completely devoid of stone sources. Given the paucity of stone, multi-purpose use of implements is widely documented. Although it was common to find pits present in mortars and other ground stone tools demonstrating multiple functions, including use as anvils, a class of single purpose stones with multiple pits and distinctive form was identified. Most of these were found in areas known for groves of quandong and four were analysed for use-wear and residues along with two other ground stone items from the MDB. The results support their identification as specialised anvil stones for cracking quandong nuts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regulating ecosystem services provided by urban forests are of great importance for the quality of life among city dwellers. To reach a maximum contribution to well-being in cities, the urban regulating ecosystem services (URES) must match with the demands in terms of space and time. If we understand the matches or mismatches between the current urban dwellers’ desired quality conditions (demand) and the supply of URES by urban forests (UF) in the cities, this will facilitate integrating the concepts of ecosystem services in urban planning and management, but such an assessment has suffered from major knowledge limitations. Since it is complex and problematic to identify the direct demands for URES and the spatiotemporal patterns therein, improving the demand indicators can help to determine the actual requirements. In this paper, a methodological approach based on indicators is presented and demonstrated for two important URES: air quality improvement and global climate change mitigation provided by urban trees and shrubs. Four air quality standards and greenhouse gas reduction targets were used and compared to supplies of the URES in Tabriz, Iran. Our results show that the mean contribution of the URES supply to air quality standards and greenhouse gas reduction targets is modest. Hence, in Tabriz, there is a strong mismatch between demand and supply. Mismatches at the city scale will have to be reduced by both a reduction in pollutant emissions and an increased provisioning of URES supply through urban greenery. The presented assessment approach and the results for Tabriz make it explicit how different the demands and supplies of the two studied URES are, and we expect similar mismatches in many other cities. Therefore, our approach, relatively simple but still realistic and easy-to-apply, can raise awareness about, and the utility of, the ecosystem services concepts for urban planning and policymaking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Excess emissions are pollutant releases that occur during periods of startups, shutdowns or malfunctions and are considered violations of the U.S. Clean Air Act. They are an important, but understudied and under-regulated, category of pollution releases given their frequency and magnitude. In this paper, we examine the demographic correlates of excess emissions, using data from industrial sources in Texas. Methods: We conduct two complementary sets of analyses: one at the census tract level and one at the facility level. At the census tract level, we use a multinomial logit model to examine the relationships between racial, ethnic, and income characteristics and the incidence of excess emissions. At the facility level, we first estimate a logit model to examine whether these characteristics are associated with facilities that emit excess emissions, and then, conditional on the presence of excess emissions, we use ordinary least square regression to estimate their correlation with the magnitude of releases. Results: Across our analyses, we find that the percentage of Black population and median household income are positively associated with excess emissions; percentage of college graduate, population density, median housing value, and percentage of owner-occupied housing unit are negatively associated with excess emissions. We, however, have not found a clear and significant relationship between the percentage of Hispanic population and excess emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plant cell walls development is an integrated process during which several components are deposited successively. In the cell walls in grass, the accessibility of structural polysaccharides is limited by the cell walls structure and composition mainly as a result of phenolic compounds. Here, we studied the patterns of cell walls establishment in the internode supporting the ear in three distinct maize genotypes. The developmental patterns observed in the internode cell walls in terms of its composition are reported with an emphasis on lignification, p-coumaroylation and feruloylation. We combined biochemical and histological approaches and revealed that internode cell walls development in maize before flowering is characterized by the rapid deposition of secondary cell walls components and robust lignification in both the pith and the rind. After flowering and until silage maturity, the slow deposition of secondary walls components occurs in the cortical region, and the deposited lignins are rich in β-O-4 bonds and are highly p-coumaroylated. We conclude the paper by proposing a revised spatiotemporal model based on that proposed by Terashima et al. (1993) for cell walls development in grass. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Constructed wetlands are sustainable technologies for the treatment of wastewater. These biological systems have been widely studied throughout the world for more than 30 years; however, most studies have focused on the effects of design and engineering on pollutant removal from wastewater. Undoubtedly, agro-technical aspects have been given too little consideration by research. This paper reports the main results of a set of experiments carried out on two pilot horizontal subsurface flow systems in Sicily (Italy). Festuca, Lolium and Pennisetum spp. in combination and three emergent macrophytes–Arundo donax L., Cyperus alternifolius L. and Typha latifolia L.–alone, were assessed. The aim of the study was to demonstrate that, under predetermined hydraulic and design conditions, the choice of plant species and the management of the vegetation can significantly affect the pollutant removal performance of constructed wetlands. In addition, wastewater (after treatment) can also be used for agricultural purposes leading to increased sustainability in agricultural systems. Arundo and Typha-planted units performed better than Cyperus-planted units in terms of chemical, physical and microbiological contaminant removal. All the species adapted extremely well to wetland conditions. Polyculture systems were found to be more efficient than monocultures in the removal of dissolved organic compounds. The reuse of treated wastewater for the irrigation of open fields and horticultural crops led to significant savings in the use of freshwater and fertilizers. The results of physical-energy characterization of A. donax above-ground plant residues and pellets highlighted the fact that a constructed wetland could also be a potential source of bioenergy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The deterioration of water quality has become a primary environmental concern worldwide. Understanding the status of water quality and identifying the influencing factors are important for water resources management. However, reported analyses have mostly been conducted in small and focused areas. It is still unclear if factors driving spatial variation in water quality would be different in extended spatial scales. In this paper, we analyzed spatial pattern of inland surface water quality in China using a dataset with four water quality parameters (i.e., pH, DO, NH4+-N and CODMn) and the water quality level. We tested the effects of anthropogenic (i.e., land use and socio-economic) and natural (i.e., climatic and topographic) factors on spatial variation in water quality. The study concluded that the overall inland surface water quality in China was at level III (fair). Water quality level was strongly correlated with CODMn and NH4+-N concentration. In contrast to reported studies that suggested land use patterns were the determinants of inland surface water quality, this study revealed that both anthropogenic and natural factors played important roles in explaining spatial variation of inland surface water quality in China. Among the tested explanatory variables, mean elevation within watershed appeared as the best predictor for pH, while annual precipitation and mean air temperature were the most important explanatory variables for CODMn and DO, respectively. NH4+-N concentration and water quality level were most strongly correlated with the percent of forest cover in watershed. Compared to studies at smaller spatial scales, this study found different influencing factors of surface water quality, suggesting that factors may play different roles at different spatial scales of consideration. Therefore management policies and measures in water quality control must be established and implemented accordingly. Since currently adopted parameters for monitoring of inland surface water quality in China are largely influenced by natural variables, additional physicochemical and biological indicators are needed for a robust assessment of human impacts on water quality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to develop a novel computational technique for the detection of the transit through the anaerobic threshold. This technique uses only cardiac intervals derived from the electrocardiogram and is based on algebraic relationships between RR and QRS intervals. Electrocardiograms are measured during the load and the recovery processes. Algebraic relationships between cardiac intervals are used not only to identify the anaerobic threshold but also to characterise individual features of the person during the transit through the threshold. The ratio between carbon dioxide and oxygen in the exhaled air is used to validate the results. The algebraic relationship between cardiac intervals serves as a stand-alone indicator for both the determination of the anaerobic threshold and the characterization of the performance of the person during the load and the recovery processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The production of concrete for construction purposes is a major source of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. One promising avenue towards a more sustainable construction industry is to make use of naturally occurring mineral-microbe interactions, such as microbial-induced carbonate precipitation (MICP), to produce solid materials. In this paper, we present a new process where calcium carbonate in the form of powdered limestone is transformed to a binder material (termed BioZEment) through microbial dissolution and recrystallization. For the dissolution step, a suitable bacterial strain, closely related to Bacillus pumilus, was isolated from soil near a limestone quarry. We show that this strain produces organic acids from glucose, inducing the dissolution of calcium carbonate in an aqueous slurry of powdered limestone. In the second step, the dissolved limestone solution is used as the calcium source for MICP in sand packed syringe moulds. The amounts of acid produced and calcium carbonate dissolved are shown to depend on the amount of available oxygen as well as the degree of mixing. Precipitation is induced through the pH increase caused by the hydrolysis of urea, mediated by the enzyme urease, which is produced in situ by the bacterium Sporosarcina pasteurii DSM33. The degree of successful consolidation of sand by BioZEment was found to depend on both the amount of urea and the amount of glucose available in the dissolution reaction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When assessing the short-term effect of air pollution on health outcomes, it is common practice to consider one pollutant at a time, due to their high correlation. Multi pollutant methods have been recently proposed, mainly consisting of collapsing the different pollutants into air quality indexes or clustering the pollutants and then evaluating the effect of each cluster on the health outcome. A major drawback of such approaches is that it is not possible to evaluate the health impact of each pollutant. In this paper we propose the use of the Bayesian hierarchical framework to deal with multi pollutant concentrations in a two-component model: a pollutant model is specified to estimate the ‘true’ concentration values for each pollutant and then such concentration is linked to the health outcomes in a time-series perspective. Through a simulation study we evaluate the model performance and we apply the modelling framework to investigate the effect of six pollutants on cardiovascular mortality in Greater London in 2011-2012. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The energy consumption-growth nexus has been widely studied in the empirical literature, though results have been inconclusive regarding the direction, or even the existence, of causality. These inconsistent results can be explained by two important limitations of the literature. First, the use of bivariate models, which fail to detect more complex causal relations, or the ad hoc approach to selecting variables in a multivariate framework; and, second, the use of linear causal models, which are unable to capture more complex nonlinear causal relationships. In this paper, we aim to overcome both limitations by analysing the energy consumption-growth nexus using a Flexible Fourier form due to Enders and Jones (2016). The analysis focuses on the US over the period 1949 to 2014. From our results we can conclude that, where the linear methodology supports the neutrality hypothesis (no causality between energy consumption and growth), the Flexible Fourier form points to the existence of causality from energy consumption to growth. This is contrary to the linear analysis, suggesting that lowering energy consumption would adversely affect US economic growth. Thus, by employing the Flexible Fourier form we find the conclusions can be quite different. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper documents the first U-Pb zircon ages for Ashfall Fossil Beds (Nebraska, USA), a terrestrial Konservat-Lagerstätte mass-death assemblage that is arguably the most diverse of its type and age. The Ashfall tephra was correlated with ignimbrites from the Bruneau-Jarbidge volcanic field (12.7–10.5 Ma) in southwest Idaho based on geochemical analysis. The methods and geochemical data supporting the original age assessment of the ash bed, however, were never published, and there has been a persistent misconception that dateable heavy minerals (e.g., zircon) are absent. Notwithstanding, we recovered abundant zircons from Ashfall Fossil Beds, and from an ash bed ~6 km to the southeast at Grove Lake, Nebraska, and analyzed them through LA-ICP-MS. Our new zircon U-Pb age of 11.86 ± 0.13 Ma substantiates correlation of the Ashfall Fossil Beds deposit to tuffs originating from the Bruneau-Jarbidge caldera (~12.7–10.5 Ma). Our U-Pb zircon age of 6.42 ± 0.06 Ma for the Grove Lake ash bed coincides with supervolcanic activity in the Heise volcanic field (6.6–4.3 Ma) in eastern Idaho. These new dates improve age constraints of strata comprising the Ogallala Group and the important paleontological site. Moreover, we find that detrital and airfall zircons are unevenly distributed in the stratified ash beds we describe herein and presumably in similar deposits worldwide. Therefore, a higher-resolution sampling scheme is necessary in such cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Maintaining crop outputs to feed its large population with limited resources while simultaneously mitigating carbon emissions are great challenges for China. Improving the efficiency of resource use in crop production is important in reducing carbon emissions. This paper constructs a methodological framework combining emergy-based indicator accounting and a nonseparable undesirable output slack-based measurement (SBM) data envelopment analysis (DEA) model. This framework is used to explore the efficiency of inputs and outputs and the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction potential for crop production systems, using Zhejiang province, China, as a case study. It is found that an emergy synthesis and a nonseparable undesirable output SBM-DEA framework is compatible with the case study. Crop production in Zhejiang province has relied heavily on an increase in agrochemical inputs to maintain agricultural output. Energy and chemical fertilizer use are determined as the province’s major carbon emissions sources. Although carbon emissions per unit of monetary output has decreased sharply, the carbon emissions per unit emergy output has increased, demonstrating a high carbon intensity reality. The DEA highlighted the differences in crop production efficiency, resource factor redundancy and carbon mitigation potential in the different prefectures of the province. To conclude this research, policies to support low carbon agriculture development, including subsidizing low carbon agriculture technology development and expansion and the cancellation of subsidies to high carbon production factors, such as chemical fertilizer production and sales, are discussed to conclude the research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many studies indicated that industrialization and urbanization caused serious soil heavy metal pollution from industrialized age. However, fewer previous studies have conducted a combined analysis of the landscape pattern, urbanization, industrialization, and heavy metal pollution. This paper was aimed at exploring the relationships of heavy metals in the soil (Pb, Cu, Ni, As, Cd, Cr, Hg, and Zn) with landscape pattern, industrialisation, urbanisation in Taiyuan city using multivariate analysis. The multivariate analysis included correlation analysis, analysis of variance (ANOVA), independent-sample T test, and principal component analysis (PCA). Geographic information system (GIS) was also applied to determine the spatial distribution of the heavy metals. The spatial distribution maps showed that the heavy metal pollution of the soil was more serious in the centre of the study area. The results of the multivariate analysis indicated that the correlations among heavy metals were significant, and industrialisation could significantly affect the concentrations of some heavy metals. Landscape diversity showed a significant negative correlation with the heavy metal concentrations. The PCA showed that a two-factor model for heavy metal pollution, industrialisation, and the landscape pattern could effectively demonstrate the relationships between these variables. The model explained 86.71% of the total variance of the data. Moreover, the first factor was mainly loaded with the comprehensive pollution index (P), and the second factor was primarily loaded with landscape diversity and dominance (H and D). An ordination of 80 samples could show the pollution pattern of all the samples. The results revealed that local industrialisation caused heavy metal pollution of the soil, but such pollution could respond negatively to the landscape pattern. The results of the study could provide a basis for agricultural, suburban, and urban planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper demonstrates the impact of an endemic fossorial animal, plateau pika (Ochotona curzoniae), on soil properties and N2O flux at the Zoige Wetland. Pika burrow and control sites without disturbance by pika were selected to measure the soil water content, bulk density, soil organic matter (SOM), NH4-N content and NO3-N content in August 2012. N2O fluxes were measured with static opaque chambers at these sites in June and August 2012. Pika burrowing altered soil aeration by transferring deeper soil to the surface and by constructing underground burrows, which significantly increased bulk density, and reduced soil water content, SOM and NH4-N content at 0–10 cm and 10–20 cm soil depth. N2O flux had a significant correlation with bulk density, SOM and NH4-N content. Pika burrowing significantly influenced N2O flux by increasing N2O flux at the control site from near zero to 0.063±0.011 mg m-2 h-1. Our findings described how pika burrowing influences the soil traits and significantly increases the principal greenhouse gas N2O emission. As plateau pika was commonly considered as a pest, our findings give a novel clue to effectively manage populations of plateau pika on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from the perspective of greenhouse gas emission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Southwestern Amazonia is considered an early centre of plant domestication in the New World, but most of the evidence for this hypothesis comes from genetic data since systematic archaeological fieldwork in the area is recent. This paper provides first-hand archaeobotanical evidence of food production from early and middle Holocene (ca. 9,000–5000 cal. BP) deposits at Teotonio, an open-air site located on a 40 m-high bluff on the south bank of the Madeira river. Such evidence includes the presence of local and exotic domesticates such as manioc (Manihot esculenta), squash (Cucurbita sp.) and beans (Phaseolus sp.), alongside edible fruits such as pequiá (Caryocar sp.) and guava (Psidium sp.) that point to the beginnings of landscape domestication. The results contribute to an ever-growing number of studies that posit southwest Amazonia as an important centre for early crop domestication and experimentation, and which highlight the longue-durée of human impacts on tropical forest biodiversity around the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To understand the response of marine calcifying organisms under high CO2 scenarios, it is critical to study their calcification patterns in the natural environment. This paper focuses on a major calcifying phytoplankton group, the coccolithophores, through the analysis of water samples collected along a W-E Mediterranean transect during two research cruises, in April 2011 (Meteor cruise M84/3) and May 2013 (MedSeA cruise 2013). The Mediterranean Sea is a marginal sea characterized by large biogeochemical gradients. Currently, it is undergoing both warming and ocean acidification, processes which are rapidly modifying species distribution and calcification. The species Emiliania huxleyi largely dominates the total coccolithophore production in present day oceans and marine basins, including the Mediterranean Sea. A series of morphometric measurements were performed on the coccoliths of this species to estimate their mass, length and calculate a calcification index (proxy for the size-normalized calcification degree). The most abundant morphotype of E. huxleyi in the Mediterranean Sea is Type A. Coccoliths of this morphotype were additionally analyzed based on scanning electron microscopy images: four calcification varieties were quantified, according to the relationship between slit length-tube width, and the state of the central area (open or closed). The average E. huxleyi coccolith mass along the Mediterranean oceanographic transect depended strongly on both the average coccolith length and calcification index. The variability in average coccolith length and calcification index across samples reflected oscillations in the relative abundance of the calcification varieties. We also demonstrated that the distribution of the calcification varieties followed the main environmental gradients (carbonate chemistry, salinity, temperature, nutrient concentrations). Hence, shifts in the distribution of the calcification varieties and of the average E. huxleyi coccolith mass are to be expected in the Mediterranean Sea under climate change. These physiological and ecological responses will modulate the net coccolithophore calcification and, ultimately, the regional carbonate export to the seafloor. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the results of research into pathways leading to the production of methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) in sediments of two eutrophic reservoirs (Maziarnia and Nielisz), located in south-eastern Poland. In seeking to identify the pathways in question, use was made of analysis of stable carbon isotopes in CH4 and CO2 dissolved in pore water. This determined that CH4 is mainly produced through acetate fermentation, though the hydrogenotrophic methanogenic process may also be of importance, especially in deeper layers of sediments. Both the presence of autochthonous organic matter and increased pH values are shown to favour acetate fermentation. In turn, methanogenesis in sediments is assessed as capable of accounting for the generation of a considerable amount of CO2. Indeed, the role of methanogenesis in CO2 production is increasingly important further down in the layers of sediment, where allochthonous organic matter is predominant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Natural resource management uses expert judgement to estimate facts that inform important decisions. Unfortunately, expert judgement is often derived by informal and largely untested protocols, despite evidence that the quality of judgements can be improved with structured approaches. We attribute the lack of uptake of structured protocols to the dearth of illustrative examples that demonstrate how they can be applied within pressing time and resource constraints, while also improving judgements. Aims and methods: In this paper, we demonstrate how the IDEA protocol for structured expert elicitation may be deployed to overcome operational challenges while improving the quality of judgements. The protocol was applied to the estimation of 14 future abiotic and biotic events on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Seventy-six participants with varying levels of expertise related to the Great Barrier Reef were recruited and allocated randomly to eight groups. Each participant provided their judgements using the four-step question format of the IDEA protocol (‘Investigate’, ‘Discuss’, ‘Estimate’, ‘Aggregate’) through remote elicitation. When the events were realised, the participant judgements were scored in terms of accuracy, calibration and informativeness. Results and conclusions: The results demonstrate that the IDEA protocol provides a practical, cost-effective, and repeatable approach to the elicitation of quantitative estimates and uncertainty via remote elicitation. We emphasise that i) the aggregation of diverse individual judgements into pooled group judgments almost always outperformed individuals, and ii) use of a modified Delphi approach helped to remove linguistic ambiguity, and further improved individual and group judgements. Importantly, the protocol encourages review, critical appraisal and replication, each of which is required if judgements are to be used in place of data in a scientific context. The results add to the growing body of literature that demonstrates the merit of using structured elicitation protocols. We urge decision-makers and analysts to use insights and examples to improve the evidence base of expert judgement in natural resource management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes the skeletal carbonate mineralogy of 156 bryozoan species collected from Scotland (sourced both from museum collections and from waters around Scotland) and collated from literature. This collection represents 79% of the species which inhabit Scottish waters and is a greater number and proportion of extant species than any previous regional study. The study is also of significance globally where the data augment the growing database of mineralogical analyses and offers first analyses for 26 genera and four families. Specimens were collated through a combination of field sampling and existing collections and were analysed by X-ray diffraction (XRD) and micro-XRD to determine wt% MgCO3 in calcite and wt% aragonite. Species distribution data and phylogenetic organisation were applied to understand distributional, taxonomic and phylo-mineralogical patterns. Analysis of the skeletal composition of Scottish bryozoans shows that the group is statistically different from neighbouring Arctic fauna but features a range of mineralogy comparable to other temperate regions. As has been previously reported, cyclostomes feature low Mg in calcite and very little aragonite, whereas cheilostomes show much more variability, including bimineralic species. Scotland is a highly variable region, open to biological and environmental influx from all directions, and bryozoans exhibit this in the wide range of within-species mineralogical variability they present. This plasticity in skeletal composition may be driven by a combination of environmentally-induced phenotypic variation, or physiological factors. A flexible response to environment, as manifested in a wide range of skeletal mineralogy within a species, may be one characteristic of successful invasive bryozoans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding Earth surface responses in terms of sediment dynamics to climatic variability and tectonics forcing is hindered by limited ability of current models to simulate long-term evolution of sediment transfer and associated morphological changes. This paper presents pyBadlands, an open-source python-based framework which computes over geological time (1) sediment transport from landmasses to coasts, (2) reworking of marine sediments by longshore currents and (3) development of coral reef systems. pyBadlands is cross-platform, distributed under the GPLv3 license and available on GitHub (). Here, we describe the underlying physical assumptions behind the simulated processes and the main options already available in the numerical framework. Along with the source code, a list of hands-on examples is provided that illustrates the model capabilities. In addition, pre and post-processing classes have been built and are accessible as a companion toolbox which comprises a series of workflows to efficiently build, quantify and explore simulation input and output files. While the framework has been primarily designed for research, its simplicity of use and portability makes it a great tool for teaching purposes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents the results of an experiment on the effect of pre-sowing stimulation of seeds with atmospheric pressure plasma jet operating with dielectric barrier discharge (DBD plasma jet) on the process of germination of Thuringian Mallow (Lavatera thuringiaca L.). Five groups of seeds characterized by a different exposure times (1, 2, 5, 10 and 15 minutes) as well as untreated seeds—control were used. Pre-sowing plasma stimulation of seeds improved germination parameters such as: germination capacity and germination energy for all tested groups relative to control. The highest germination parameters were obtained for seeds stimulated with plasma for the exposure times of 2 and 5 min. The analysis of the contact surface angle indicated the decrease of its’ mean values upon seed stimulation while no statistical effects were observed. Analysis of the SEM scans revealed the increase in seed pattern intensity which could be attributed to removing of the surface parts of cuticle possibly covered with wax upon short time—2 and 5 min plasma treatment. Such a phenomenon can act similarly to mechanical scarification of seeds. Longer exposure of seeds to plasma resulted in affecting the deeper zone of cuticle and damage or fracture of some parts of the cuticle. Lower germination parameters of seeds upon longer exposure times to plasma may indicate mechanical damage of the seeds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Commercial hunting for the international trade in animal hides in the 20th century decimated many populations of aquatic wildlife in Amazonia. However, impacts varied significantly between different species and regions, depending upon hunting intensity, accessibility of habitat, and the inherent resilience of various species and their habitats. We investigated the differential responses of two Amazonian Mustelid species, the neotropical otter and giant otter, to commercial hunting pressure along the upper Rio Negro in Brazil, and examined historical factors that influenced spatial and temporal variation in commercial exploitation. We analyzed previously unanalyzed data from historical records of hide shipments to track changes in hide sales and prices for the two species in the late 20th century. We also gathered oral histories from older Baniwa people who had witnessed or participated in commercial otter hunting. These complimentary data sources reveal how intrinsic biological and social characteristics of the two otter species interacted with market forces and regional history. Whereas giant otter populations were driven to local or regional extinction during the late 20th century by commercial hunting, neotropical otters persisted. In recent decades, giant otter populations have returned to some parts of the upper Rio Negro, a development which local people welcome as part of a generalized recovery of the ecosystems in their territory as a result of the banning of animal pelt exports and indigenous land demarcation. This paper expands the scope of the field historical ecology and reflects on the role of local knowledge in biodiversity conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper offers new high-resolution oxygen and carbon isotope data from Stalagmite S1 from Mavri Trypa Cave, SW Peloponnese. Our data provide the climate background to the destruction of the nearby Mycenaean Palace of Nestor at Pylos at the transition from Late Helladic (LH) IIIB to LH IIIC, ~3150–3130 years before present (before AD 1950, hereafter yrs BP) and the subsequent period. S1 is dated by 24 U-Th dates with an averaged precision of ±26 yrs (2σ), providing one of the most robust paleoclimate records from the eastern Mediterranean for the end of the Late Bronze Age (LBA). The δ18O record shows generally wetter conditions at the time when the Palace of Nestor at Pylos was destroyed, but a brief period of drier conditions around 3200 yrs BP may have disrupted the Mycenaean agricultural system that at the time was likely operating close to its limit. Gradually developing aridity after 3150 yrs BP, i.e. subsequent to the destruction, probably reduced crop yields and helped to erode the basis for the reinstitution of a central authority and the Palace itself. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Climate change is arguably a major threat to biodiversity conservation and there are several methods to assess its impacts on species potential distribution. Yet the extent to which different approaches on species distribution modeling affect species richness patterns at biogeographical scale is however unaddressed in literature. In this paper, we verified if the expected responses to climate change in biogeographical scale—patterns of species richness and species vulnerability to climate change—are affected by the inputs used to model and project species distribution. Methods: We modeled the distribution of 288 vertebrate species (amphibians, birds and mammals), all endemic to the Amazon basin, using different combinations of the following inputs known to affect the outcome of species distribution models (SDMs): 1) biological data type, 2) modeling methods, 3) greenhouse gas emission scenarios and 4) climate forecasts. We calculated uncertainty with a hierarchical ANOVA in which those different inputs were considered factors. Results: The greatest source of variation was the modeling method. Model performance interacted with data type and modeling method. Absolute values of variation on suitable climate area were not equal among predictions, but some biological patterns were still consistent. All models predicted losses on the area that is climatically suitable for species, especially for amphibians and primates. All models also indicated a current East-western gradient on endemic species richness, from the Andes foot downstream the Amazon river. Again, all models predicted future movements of species upwards the Andes mountains and overall species richness losses. Conclusions: From a methodological perspective, our work highlights that SDMs are a useful tool for assessing impacts of climate change on biodiversity. Uncertainty exists but biological patterns are still evident at large spatial scales. As modeling methods are the greatest source of variation, choosing the appropriate statistics according to the study objective is also essential for estimating the impacts of climate change on species distribution. Yet from a conservation perspective, we show that Amazon endemic fauna is potentially vulnerable to climate change, due to expected reductions on suitable climate area. Climate-driven faunal movements are predicted towards the Andes mountains, which might work as climate refugia for migrating species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biomass gasification stations are facing many hazard factors, therefore, it is necessary to make hazard assessment for them. In this study, a novel hazard assessment method called extended set pair analysis (ESPA) is proposed based on set pair analysis (SPA). However, the calculation of the connection degree (CD) requires the classification of hazard grades and their corresponding thresholds using SPA for the hazard assessment. In regard to the hazard assessment using ESPA, a novel calculation algorithm of the CD is worked out when hazard grades and their corresponding thresholds are unknown. Then the CD can be converted into Euclidean distance (ED) by a simple and concise calculation, and the hazard of each sample will be ranked based on the value of ED. In this paper, six biomass gasification stations are introduced to make hazard assessment using ESPA and general set pair analysis (GSPA), respectively. By the comparison of hazard assessment results obtained from ESPA and GSPA, the availability and validity of ESPA can be proved in the hazard assessment for biomass gasification stations. Meanwhile, the reasonability of ESPA is also justified by the sensitivity analysis of hazard assessment results obtained by ESPA and GSPA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Today, China is facing a very serious issue of Air Pollution due to its dreadful impact on the human health as well as the environment. The urban cities in China are the most affected due to their rapid industrial and economic growth. Therefore, it is of extreme importance to come up with new, better and more reliable forecasting models to accurately predict the air quality. This paper selected Beijing, Tianjin and Shijiazhuang as three cities from the Jingjinji Region for the study to come up with a new model of collaborative forecasting using Support Vector Regression (SVR) for Urban Air Quality Index (AQI) prediction in China. The present study is aimed to improve the forecasting results by minimizing the prediction error of present machine learning algorithms by taking into account multiple city multi-dimensional air quality information and weather conditions as input. The results show that there is a decrease in MAPE in case of multiple city multi-dimensional regression when there is a strong interaction and correlation of the air quality characteristic attributes with AQI. Also, the geographical location is found to play a significant role in Beijing, Tianjin and Shijiazhuang AQI prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper concerns the changes occurred over both decennial and millennial spans of time in a sponge assemblage present in coralligenous biogenic build-ups growing at 15 m depth in the Ligurian Sea (Western Mediterranean). The comparison of the sponge diversity after a time interval of about 40 years (1973–2014) showed a significant reduction in species richness (about 45%). This decrease affected mainly the massive/erect sponges, and in particular the subclass Keratosa, with a species loss of 67%, while the encrusting and cavity dwelling sponges lost the 36% and 50%, respectively. The boring sponges lost only one species (25%). This changing pattern suggested that the inner habitat of the bioconstructions was less affected by the variations of the environmental conditions or by the human pressures which, on the contrary, strongly affected the species living on the surface of the biogenic build-ups. Five cores extracted from the bioherms, dating back to 3500 YBP, allowed to analyse the siliceous spicules remained trapped in them in order to obtain taxonomic information. Changes at generic level in diversity and abundance were observed at 500/250-years intervals, ranging between 19 and 33 genera. The number of genera showed a sharp decrease since 3500–3000 to 3000–2500 YBP. After this period, the genera regularly increased until 1500–1250 YBP, from when they progressively decreased until 1000–500 YBP. Tentatively, these changes could be related to the different climatic periods that followed one another in the Mediterranean area within the considered time span. The recent depletion in sponge richness recorded in the Ligurian coralligenous can be considered relevant. In fact, the analysis of the spicules indicated that the sponges living in these coralligenous habitats remained enough stable during 3000 years, but could have lost a significant part of their biodiversity in the last decades, coinciding with a series of warming episodes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil bacteria are important drivers of biogeochemical cycles and participate in many nutrient transformations in the soil. Meanwhile, bacterial diversity and community composition are related to soil physic-chemical properties and vegetation factors. However, how the soil and vegetation factors affect the diversity and community composition of bacteria is poorly understood, especially for bacteria associated with evergreen and deciduous trees in subtropical forest ecosystems. In the present paper, the microbial communities of rhizospheric soils associated with different types of trees were analyzed by Illumina MiSeq sequencing the V3-V4 region of the 16S rRNA gene. A total of 121,219 effective 16S rRNA gene sequences were obtained, which were classified into 29 bacterial phyla and 2 archaeal phyla. The dominant phyla across all samples (>5% of good-quality sequences in each sample) were Proteobacteria, Acidobacteria, Firmicutes and Bacteroidetes. The bacterial community composition and diversity were largely affected by both soil pH and tree species. The soil pH was the key factor influencing bacterial diversity, with lower pH associated with less diverse communities. Meanwhile, the contents of NO3− were higher in evergreen tree soils than those associated with deciduous trees, while less NH4+ than those associated with deciduous trees, leading to a lower pH and indirectly influencing the diversity and composition of the bacteria. The co-occurrence patterns were assessed by network analysis. A total of 415 pairs of significant and robust correlations (co-occurrence and negative) were identified from 89 genera. Sixteen hubs of co-occurrence patterns, mainly under the phyla Acidobacteria, Proteobacteria, Firmicutes and Bacteroidetes, may play important roles in sustaining the stability of the rhizospheric microbial communities. In general, our results suggested that local environmental conditions and soil pH were important in shaping the bacterial community of the Taihu Lake zone in east China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We studied the effect of ocean acidification (OA) on a coastal North Sea plankton community in a long-term mesocosm CO2-enrichment experiment (BIOACID II long-term mesocosm study). From March to July 2013, 10 mesocosms of 19 m length with a volume of 47.5 to 55.9 m3 were deployed in the Gullmar Fjord, Sweden. CO2 concentrations were enriched in five mesocosms to reach average CO2 partial pressures (pCO2) of 760 μatm. The remaining five mesocosms were used as control at ambient pCO2 of 380 μatm. Our paper is part of a PLOS collection on this long-term mesocosm experiment. Here, we here tested the effect of OA on total primary production (PPT) by performing 14C-based bottle incubations for 24 h. Furthermore, photoacclimation was assessed by conducting 14C-based photosynthesis-irradiance response (P/I) curves. Changes in chlorophyll a concentrations over time were reflected in the development of PPT, and showed higher phytoplankton biomass build-up under OA. We observed two subsequent phytoplankton blooms in all mesocosms, with peaks in PPT around day 33 and day 56. OA had no significant effect on PPT, except for a marginal increase during the second phytoplankton bloom when inorganic nutrients were already depleted. Maximum light use efficiencies and light saturation indices calculated from the P/I curves changed simultaneously in all mesocosms, and suggest that OA did not alter phytoplankton photoacclimation. Despite large variability in time-integrated productivity estimates among replicates, our overall results indicate that coastal phytoplankton communities can be affected by OA at certain times of the seasonal succession with potential consequences for ecosystem functioning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ocean acidification (OA) has the potential to restructure ecosystems due to variation in species sensitivity to the projected changes in ocean carbon chemistry. Ecological models can be forced with scenarios of OA to help scientists, managers, and other stakeholders understand how ecosystems might change. We present a novel methodology for developing estimates of species sensitivity to OA that are regionally specific, and applied the method to the California Current ecosystem. To do so, we built a database of all published literature on the sensitivity of temperate species to decreased pH. This database contains 393 papers on 285 species and 89 multi-species groups from temperate waters around the world. Research on urchins and oysters and on adult life stages dominates the literature. Almost a third of the temperate species studied to date occur in the California Current. However, most laboratory experiments use control pH conditions that are too high to represent average current chemistry conditions in the portion of the California Current water column where the majority of the species live. We developed estimates of sensitivity to OA for functional groups in the ecosystem, which can represent single species or taxonomically diverse groups of hundreds of species. We based these estimates on the amount of available evidence derived from published studies on species sensitivity, how well this evidence could inform species sensitivity in the California Current ecosystem, and the agreement of the available evidence for a species/species group. This approach is similar to that taken by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to characterize certainty when summarizing scientific findings. Most functional groups (26 of 34) responded negatively to OA conditions, but when uncertainty in sensitivity was considered, only 11 groups had relationships that were consistently negative. Thus, incorporating certainty about the sensitivity of species and functional groups to OA is an important part of developing robust scenarios for ecosystem projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global management of wetlands to suppress greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, facilitate carbon (C) sequestration, and reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations while simultaneously promoting agricultural gains is paramount. However, studies that relate variability in CO2 and CH4 emissions at large spatial scales are limited. We investigated three-year emissions of soil CO2 and CH4 from the primary wetland types of the Liaohe Delta, China, by focusing on a total wetland area of 3287 km2. One percent is Suaeda salsa, 24% is Phragmites australis, and 75% is rice. While S. salsa wetlands are under somewhat natural tidal influence, P. australis and rice are managed hydrologically for paper and food, respectively. Total C emissions from CO2 and CH4 from these wetland soils were 2.9 Tg C/year, ranging from 2.5 to 3.3 Tg C/year depending on the year assessed. Primary emissions were from CO2 (~98%). Photosynthetic uptake of CO2 would mitigate most of the soil CO2 emissions, but CH4 emissions would persist. Overall, CH4 fluxes were high when soil temperatures were >18°C and pore water salinity <18 PSU. CH4 emissions from rice habitat alone in the Liaohe Delta represent 0.2% of CH4 carbon emissions globally from rice. With such a large area and interannual sensitivity in soil GHG fluxes, management practices in the Delta and similar wetlands around the world have the potential not only to influence local C budgeting, but also to influence global biogeochemical cycling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]