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Background: AIDS is a worrying public health issue in China and lacks timely and effective surveillance. With the diffusion and adoption of the Internet, the ‘big data’ aggregated from Internet search engines, which contain users’ information on the concern or reality of their health status, provide a new opportunity for AIDS surveillance. This paper uses search engine data to monitor and forecast AIDS in China. Methods: A machine learning method, artificial neural networks (ANNs), is used to forecast AIDS incidences and deaths. Search trend data related to AIDS from the largest Chinese search engine, Baidu.com, are collected and selected as the input variables of ANNs, and officially reported actual AIDS incidences and deaths are used as the output variable. Three criteria, the mean absolute percentage error, the root mean squared percentage error, and the index of agreement, are used to test the forecasting performance of the ANN method. Results: Based on the monthly time series data from January 2011 to June 2017, this article finds that, under the three criteria, the ANN method can lead to satisfactory forecasting of AIDS incidences and deaths, regardless of the change in the number of search queries. Conclusions: Despite the inability to self-detect HIV/AIDS through online searching, Internet-based data should be adopted as a timely, cost-effective complement to a traditional AIDS surveillance system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Panton-Valentine leukocidin (PVL) genes of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) have previously been associated with severe infections. Here, the impact of the PVL genes on severity of disease and clinical outcome of patients with hospital-acquired pneumonia (HAP) or ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) due to MRSA was investigated in a single center observational study in a hospital in China. HAP due to MRSA was diagnosed in 100 patients and 13 of the patients were PVL positive, while VAP was diagnosed in 5 patients and 2 were PVL positive. The PVL positive patient group showed a significantly higher Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score (14.3 ±7.8 vs. 10.1 ±4.7, P = 0.005) and significantly more patients with CRP levels >80 mg/L (8/15 vs. 12/90, P = 0.006) or WBC counts >15x109/L (7/15 vs. 12/90, P = 0.006), indicating that the severity of disease is affected by the presence of the PVL genes. The outcome of the study was defined by 30-day mortality. Four (27%) of the PVL positive patients and four (4%) of the PVL negative patients died within 30 days (P = 0.01, Fisher exact test). Kaplan-Meier survival curves were generated for the PVL positive and PVL negative patient groups, which differed significantly (P = 0.003). Among the patients that died, the mean interval between diagnosis and death was shorter for the PVL positive patients (9.3 ±5.6 vs. 40.8 ±6.6 days, P = 0.013). Further analysis within the HAP and VAP patient groups showed that the presence of PVL in MRSA impacted the severity of disease and clinical outcome of HAP, but for VAP the number of patients included in the study was too low. In conclusion, in this single center study in a Chinese hospital the presence of the PVL genes in MRSA impacted the severity of disease and clinical outcome in patients with HAP due to MRSA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]