Search

The changing population age structure has a significant influence on the economy, society, and numerous other aspects of a country. This paper has innovatively applied the method of compositional data forecasting for the prediction of population age changes of the young (aged 0–14), the middle-aged (aged 15–64), and the elderly (aged older than 65) in China, India, and Vietnam by 2030 based on data from 1960 to 2016. To select the best-suited forecasting model, an array of data transformation approaches and forecasting models have been extensively employed, and a large number of comparisons have been made between the aforementioned methods. The best-suited model for each country is identified considering the root mean squared error and mean absolute percent error values from the compositional data. As noted in this study, first and foremost, it is predicted that by the year 2030, China will witness the disappearance of population dividend and get mired in an aging problem far more severe than that of India or Vietnam. Second, Vietnam’s trend of change in population age structure resembles that of China, but the country will sustain its good health as a whole. Finally, the working population of India demonstrates a strong rising trend, indicating that the age structure of the Indian population still remains relatively “young”. Meanwhile, the continuous rise in the proportion of elderly population and the gradual leveling off growth of the young population have nevertheless become serious problems in the world. The present paper attempts to offer crucial insights into the Asian population size, labor market and urbanization, and, moreover, provides suggestions for a sustainable global demographic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To balance the supply and demand in China's beef market, beef consumption must be scientifically and effectively forecasted. Beef consumption is affected by many factors and is characterized by gray uncertainty. Therefore, gray theory can be used to forecast the beef consumption, In this paper, the structural defects and unreasonable parameter design of the traditional gray model are analyzed. Then, a new gray model termed, EGM(1,1,r), is built, and the modeling conditions and error checking methods of EGM(1,1,r) are studied. Then, EGM(1,1,r) is used to simulate and forecast China’s beef consumption. The results show that both the simulation and prediction precisions of the new model are better than those of other gray models. Finally, the new model is used to forecast China’s beef consumption for the period from 2019–2025. The findings will serve as an important reference for the Chinese government in formulating policies to ensure the balance between the supply and demand for Chinese beef. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper combines a Granger causality test and a VAR model to investigate the relationships among oil price shocks, global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU), and China’s industrial economic growth. Based on monthly data from 2000 to 2017, we reveal that GEPU and world oil prices jointly Granger cause China's industrial economic growth; world oil prices have a positive effect on China's industrial economic growth, while GEPU has a negative effect. Further analyses investigate the asymmetry effect of oil prices and find that the negative component shows a more significant impact on China's industrial economic growth. The results are robust to different oil price and EPU proxies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Limited data exist related to low birth weight (LBW) incidence and risk factors in Western China. This paper aims to assess LBW and its relationship with antenatal care (ANC) in the poor counties of Western China. A community-based study in rural Western China was conducted in 2011. A kernel distribution was used to estimate the adjusted LBW incidence, and associations between LBW and socio-demographic or maternal factors were examined using multilevel logistic regression. Among 8,964 participants, 65.7% were weighed at birth. Crude LBW incidence was 6.6% and the adjusted rate was 9.3%. The study revealed that risk factors of LBW are being female, raised within a minority group, and with a family income below the national poverty line. For maternal risk factors, LBW was positively associated with not attending at least five or eight ANC visits, not receiving any ANC during the first trimester, and not having access to assess certain ANC content (weight, blood pressure, blood test, urine test, B-scan ultrasound, and folic acid supplement). There is urgent need to promote quality ANC in poor and rural areas of Western China and to prioritize vulnerable women and children who will benefit from quality ANC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: AIDS is a worrying public health issue in China and lacks timely and effective surveillance. With the diffusion and adoption of the Internet, the ‘big data’ aggregated from Internet search engines, which contain users’ information on the concern or reality of their health status, provide a new opportunity for AIDS surveillance. This paper uses search engine data to monitor and forecast AIDS in China. Methods: A machine learning method, artificial neural networks (ANNs), is used to forecast AIDS incidences and deaths. Search trend data related to AIDS from the largest Chinese search engine, Baidu.com, are collected and selected as the input variables of ANNs, and officially reported actual AIDS incidences and deaths are used as the output variable. Three criteria, the mean absolute percentage error, the root mean squared percentage error, and the index of agreement, are used to test the forecasting performance of the ANN method. Results: Based on the monthly time series data from January 2011 to June 2017, this article finds that, under the three criteria, the ANN method can lead to satisfactory forecasting of AIDS incidences and deaths, regardless of the change in the number of search queries. Conclusions: Despite the inability to self-detect HIV/AIDS through online searching, Internet-based data should be adopted as a timely, cost-effective complement to a traditional AIDS surveillance system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In this research, an meta-analysis was performed for assessment of the associations between O6-methyguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) promoter hypermethylation possessing low-grade intraepithelial lesion (LSIL), high-grade intraepithelial lesion (HSIL), cervical cancer (CC), and clinicopathological characters of CC. Methods: Literature selection were conducted through searching PubMed, Web of science, EMBASE, China National Knowledge Infrastructure and Wanfang databases (up to November 2018). An assessment of associations between MGMT methylation and LSIL, HSIL, CC risk and clinicopathological characteristics was performed through pooled odds ratios (ORs) with relevant 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Subgroup analyses, meta-regressions and Galbraith plots were conducted to conduct an exploration on the possible sources of heterogeneity. The genome-wide DNA methylation array studies were extracted from Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) databases for validation of these outcomes. Results: In this meta-analysis of 25 published articles, MGMT hypermethylation gradually elevated the rates among control group (12.16%), LSIL (20.92%), HSIL (36.33%) and CC (41.50%) specimens. MGMT promoter methylation was significant associated with the increased risk of LSIL by 1.74-fold (P<0.001), HSIL by 3.71-fold (P<0.001) and CC by 7.08-fold (P<0.001) compared with control. A significant association between MGMT promoter methylation with FIGO stage was also found (OR = 2.81, 95% CI: 1.79–4.41, p<0.001). The results of GEO datasets showed that 5 CpG sites in MGMT with a great diagnostic value for the screening of cervical cancer. Conclusion: The meta-analysis indicated the association between MGMT promoter hypermethylation and squamous intraepithelial lesion and cervical cancer. MGMT methylation detection might have a potential value to be an epigenetic marker for the clinical diagnosis of cervical cancer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Studies have shown that D-dimer levels are significantly correlated with the differential diagnosis and clinicopathological features of breast cancer. However, the results are currently limited and controversial. Therefore, we performed this meta-analysis to evaluate the relationship between D-dimer levels and breast cancer. Materials and methods: The PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, Chinese Biomedical Literature, and Wanfang databases were searched to find studies that assessed the association of D-dimer with clinicopathological features of breast cancer and its usefulness in aiding with differential diagnosis. The standardized mean difference (SMD) was applied as the correlation measure. Results: A total of 1244 patients with breast cancer from 15 eligible studies were included in the meta-analysis. D-dimer levels were higher in the breast cancer group than in the benign (SMD = 1.02; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.53–1.52) and healthy (SMD = 1.27; 95% CI = 0.85–1.68) control groups. In addition, elevated D-dimer levels were associated with progesterone receptor-negative tumors (SMD = -0.25; 95% CI = -0.44–-0.05). Similarly, there was a significant correlation between D-dimer levels and tumor node metastasis staging (n = 11, SMD = 0.82; 95% CI = 0.57–1.06) and lymph node involvement (n = 8, SMD = 0.79; 95% CI = 0.50–1.09). In contrast, other clinicopathological factors, including estrogen receptor expression and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 expression, were not associated with D-dimer levels. Conclusion: The results of this meta-analysis indicate that plasma D-dimer levels can be used as an important reference for the early identification and staging of breast cancer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and objective: Aerosol therapies are widely used for mechanically ventilated patients. However, the practice pattern of aerosol therapy in mainland China remains unknown. This study aimed to determine the current practice of aerosol therapy in mainland China. Methods: A web-based survey was conducted by the China Union of Respiratory Care (CURC) from August 2018 to January 2019. The survey was disseminated via Email or WeChat to members of CURC. A questionnaire comprising 16 questions related to hospital information and 12 questions related to the practice of aerosol therapy. Latent class analysis was employed to identify the distinct classes of aerosol therapy practice. Main results: A total of 693 valid questionnaires were returned by respiratory care practitioners from 447 hospitals. Most of the practitioners used aerosol therapy for both invasive mechanical ventilation (90.8%) and non-invasive mechanical ventilation (91.3%). Practitioners from tertiary care centers were more likely to use aerosol therapy compared with those from non-tertiary care centers (91.9% vs. 85.4%, respectively; p = 0.035). The most commonly used drugs for aerosol therapy were bronchodilators (64.8%) followed by mucolytic agents (44.2%), topical corticosteroids (43.4%) and antibiotics (16.5%). The ultrasonic nebulizer (48.3%) was the most commonly used followed by the jet nebulizer (39.2%), the metered dose inhaler (15.4%) and the vibrating mesh nebulizer (14.6%). Six latent classes were identified via latent class analysis. Class 1 was characterized by the aggressive use of aerosol therapy without a standard protocol, while class 3 was characterized by the absence of aerosol therapy. Conclusions: Substantial heterogeneity among institutions with regard to the use of aerosol therapy was noted. The implementation of aerosol therapy during mechanical ventilation was inconsistent in light of recent practice guidelines. Additional efforts by the CURC to improve the implementation of aerosol therapy in mainland China are warranted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Many studies focused on reasons behind the increasing incidence and the spread of human brucellosis in mainland China, yet most of them lacked comprehensive consideration with quantitative evidence. Hence, this study aimed to further investigate the epidemic mechanism and associated factors of human brucellosis so as to provide thoughts for future countermeasures in China and the rest of the world. Methods: Data of human brucellosis incidence and some associated factors in economy, animal husbandry, transportation as well as health and hygiene were collected at provincial level from 2005–2016. Time series plots were first used to visualize the annual incidence and annual rate of change of human brucellosis for each province, then cluster analysis categorized all the 31 provinces of mainland China based on their incidence time series during the study period. In addition, according to the characteristics of data, the dynamic panel data model in combination with supervised principal component analysis was proposed to explore effects of associated factors on human brucellosis. Results: 1. The incidence rate of human brucellosis in mainland China increased three-fold from 1.41 per 100,000 people in 2005 to 4.22 per 100,000 people in 2014, though it went down a little in 2015 and 2016. Incidence rates in the north have always been higher than those in the south, but the latter also experienced an upward trend especially between 2012 and 2016. 2. The 31 provinces of mainland China were categorized into three clusters, and each cluster had its own characteristics of incidence time series. 3. The impact of health and hygiene situations on the prevention and control work of human brucellosis was still very limited and trivial (regression coefficient = -0.02). Therefore, it was plausible to presume that improving the personal average number of medical institutes and the proportion of rural medical expenditure might be helpful in preventing and controlling human brucellosis. Conclusions: The epidemic status of human brucellosis has changed in both spatial and temporal dimensions in recent years in mainland China. Apart from traditional control measures, more attention should be paid to the improvement of medical healthcare especially in rural areas in the hope of enhancing the control effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) is the deadliest infectious disease globally. Current case finding approaches may miss many people with TB or detect them too late. Data and methods: This study was a retrospective, spatial analysis of routine TB surveillance and cadastral data in Go Vap district, Ho Chi Minh City. We geocoded TB notifications from 2011 to 2015 and calculated theoretical yields of simulated door-to-door screening in three concentric catchment areas (50m, 100m, 200m) and three notification window scenarios (one, two and four quarters) for each index case. We calculated average yields, compared them to published reference values and fit a GEE (Generalized Estimating Equation) linear regression model onto the data. Results: The sample included 3,046 TB patients. Adjusted theoretical yields in 50m, 100m and 200m catchment areas were 0.32% (95%CI: 0.27,0.37), 0.21% (95%CI: 0.14,0.29) and 0.17% (95%CI: 0.09,0.25), respectively, in the baseline notification window scenario. Theoretical yields in the 50m-catchment area for all notification window scenarios were significantly higher than a reference yield from literature. Yield was positively associated with treatment failure index cases (beta = 0.12, p = 0.001) and short-term inter-province migrants (beta = 0.06, p = 0.022), while greater distance to the DTU (beta = -0.02, p<0.001) was associated with lower yield. Conclusions: This study is an example of inter-departmental collaboration and application of repurposed cadastral data to progress towards the end TB objectives. The results from Go Vap showed that the use of spatial analysis may be able to identify areas where targeted active case finding in Vietnam can help improve TB case detection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Intimate partner violence (IPV) is the most common form of violence against women worldwide. IPV during pregnancy is an important risk factor for adverse health outcomes for women and their offspring. However, the prevalence of IPV during pregnancy is not well understood in China. The objective of this study was to estimate the pooled prevalence of IPV during pregnancy in China using a systematic review and meta-analysis. Methods: Systematic literature searches were conducted in PubMed, Web of Science, CNKI, Wanfang, Weipu and CBM databases to identify relevant articles published from the inception of each database to January 31, 2016 that reported data on the prevalence of IPV during pregnancy in China. The Risk of Bias Tool for prevalence studies was used to assess the risk of bias in individual studies. Owing to significant between-study heterogeneity, a random-effects model was used to calculate the pooled prevalence and corresponding 95% confidence interval, and then univariate meta-regression analyses were performed to investigate the sources of heterogeneity. Subgroup analysis was conducted to explore the risk factors associated with IPV during pregnancy. Results: Thirteen studies with a total of 30,665 individuals were included in this study. The overall pooled prevalence of IPV during pregnancy was 7.7% (95% CI: 5.6–10.1%) with significant heterogeneity (I2 = 97.8%, p < 0.001). The results of the univariate meta-regression analyses showed that only the variable “sample source” explained part of the heterogeneity in this study (p < 0.05). The characteristics “number of children” and “unplanned pregnancy” were determined as risk factors for experiencing violence during pregnancy. Conclusions: The prevalence of IPV during pregnancy in China is considerable and one of the highest reported in Asia, which suggests that issues of violence against women during pregnancy should be included in efforts to improve the health of pregnant women and their offspring. In addition, a nationwide epidemiological study is needed to confirm the prevalence estimates and identify more risk factors for IPV during pregnancy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article examines the detailed spatial and temporal distributions of coastal reclamation in the northwest coast of Bohai Bay experiencing rapid coastal reclamation in China from 1974 to 2010 in annual intervals. Moreover, soil elements properties and spatial distribution in reclaimed area and inform the future coastal ecosystems management was also analyzed. The results shows that 910.7 km2 of coastal wetlands have been reclaimed and conversed to industrial land during the past 36 years. It covers intertidal beach, shallow sea and island with a percentage of 76.0%, 23.5% and 0.5%, respectively. The average concentration of Mn is 686.91mg/kg and the order of concentration of heavy metal are Cr>Zn>As>Ni>Cu>Pb>Cd>Hg. We used the "space for time substitution" method to test the soil properties changes after reclamation. The potential ecological risk of heavy metal is in low level and the risk of Cd and As is relatively higher. The ecosystem-based coastal protection and management are urgent to support sustainable coastal ecosystems in Bohai bay in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This is the first meta-analysis of the pooled prevalence of insomnia in the general population of China. A systematic literature search was conducted via the following databases: PubMed, PsycINFO, EMBASE and Chinese databases (China National Knowledge Interne (CNKI), WanFang Data and SinoMed). Statistical analyses were performed using the Comprehensive Meta-Analysis program. A total of 17 studies with 115,988 participants met the inclusion criteria for the analysis. The pooled prevalence of insomnia in China was 15.0% (95% Confidence interval [CI]: 12.1%-18.5%). No significant difference was found in the prevalence between genders or across time period. The pooled prevalence of insomnia in population with a mean age of 43.7 years and older (11.6%; 95% CI: 7.5%-17.6%) was significantly lower than in those with a mean age younger than 43.7 years (20.4%; 95% CI: 14.2%-28.2%). The prevalence of insomnia was significantly affected by the type of assessment tools (Q = 14.1, P = 0.001). The general population prevalence of insomnia in China is lower than those reported in Western countries but similar to those in Asian countries. Younger Chinese adults appear to suffer from more insomnia than older adults. Trial Registration: CRD [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Hepatitis E virus is one of new threats to blood safety which was usually considered to be transmitted via fecal-oral route. China is one of the hyperendemic regions where frequent outbreaks of hepatitis E are noted. However, the overall prevalence of HEV infection among mainland Chinese blood donors is not clear until now. Method: The peer-reviewed literatures reporting the prevalence of HEV in Chinese blood donors were identified by systematic searching of five electronic databases. The systematic review and meta-analysis were conducted in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses statement issued in 2009. Data manipulation and statistical analyses were performed by Stata 12.0. Results: Fourteen eligible articles involving 22 independent studies were included. Pooled prevalence of HEV infection biomarkers (anti-HEV IgG, anti-HEV IgM, RNA and antigen) among mainland Chinese blood donors were 29.2%, 1.1%, 0.1% and 0.1%, respectively which were higher than the data reported in other countries. The analysis of HEV genotypes indicated that the most prevalent strains in Chinese blood donors were genotype 1 and 4. Conclusions: Mainland China is indicated with a relatively higher risk of transmission of hepatitis E through transfusion and the screening of blood donors for HEV RNA, especially in HEV-endemic areas, might reduce the potential risk of HEV infection via transfusion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The benchmark dose (BMD) method has been increasingly used to assess the health risks of cadmium (Cd) in epidemiological studies. The aim of our study was to estimate the threshold levels of urinary Cd (UCd) using the BMD method in a general population of Jiangshan City, Zhejiang Province of China. In our study, a total of 934 people (469 men, 465 women) were recruited and morning urine samples were collected from all the participants. Levels of Cd, creatinine, and renal dysfunction indicators such as retinol binding protein (RBP), β2-microglobulin (β2-MG), and N-acetyl-b-glucosaminidase (NAG) in urine were detected for analysis of BMD and BMD low (BMDL) of UCd. RBP, β2-MG, and NAG in urine all correlated significantly (P < 0.001) with UCd except of age (P = 0.767). When the benchmark response (BMR) was 5%, the BMD/BMDL of UCd for RBP, β2-MG, and NAG was 1.69/ 0.89, 1.24/0.62, 0.85/0.49 μg/g Cr in men and 1.70/0.76, 1.35/0.64, 1.36/0.65 μg/g Cr in women, respectively. If the BMR was set at 10%, the BMD/BMDL of UCd for RBP, β2-MG, and NAG was 2.44/1.59, 2.09/1.30, 1.80/1.04 μg/g Cr in men and 2.43/1.53, 2.10/1.34, 2.31/1.37 μg/g Cr in women, respectively. Our results provided evidence for Cd-induced tubular effects in cadmium non-polluted areas in China. Both β2-MG and NAG were more sensitive than RBP in response to Cd exposure. But β2-MG was the most sensitive indicator in women, and NAG was the most sensitive one in men. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Hepatitis is a serious public health problem with increasing cases and property damage in Heng County. It is necessary to develop a model to predict the hepatitis epidemic that could be useful for preventing this disease. Methods: The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and the generalized regression neural network (GRNN) model were used to fit the incidence data from the Heng County CDC (Center for Disease Control and Prevention) from January 2005 to December 2012. Then, the ARIMA-GRNN hybrid model was developed. The incidence data from January 2013 to December 2013 were used to validate the models. Several parameters, including mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and mean square error (MSE), were used to compare the performance among the three models. Results: The morbidity of hepatitis from Jan 2005 to Dec 2012 has seasonal variation and slightly rising trend. The ARIMA(0,1,2)(1,1,1)12 model was the most appropriate one with the residual test showing a white noise sequence. The smoothing factor of the basic GRNN model and the combined model was 1.8 and 0.07, respectively. The four parameters of the hybrid model were lower than those of the two single models in the validation. The parameters values of the GRNN model were the lowest in the fitting of the three models. Conclusions: The hybrid ARIMA-GRNN model showed better hepatitis incidence forecasting in Heng County than the single ARIMA model and the basic GRNN model. It is a potential decision-supportive tool for controlling hepatitis in Heng County. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: This study was to observe the non-heme iron absorption and biological utilization from typical whole Chinese diets in young Chinese healthy urban men, and to observe if the iron absorption and utilization could be affected by the staple food patterns of Southern and Northern China. Materials and Methods: Twenty-two young urban men aged 18–24 years were recruited and randomly assigned to two groups in which the staple food was rice and steamed buns, respectively. Each subject received 3 meals containing approximately 3.25 mg stable 57FeSO4 (the ratio of 57Fe content in breakfast, lunch and dinner was 1:2:2) daily for 2 consecutive days. In addition, approximately 2.4 mg 58FeSO4 was administered intravenously to each subject at 30–60 min after dinner each day. Blood samples were collected from each subject to measure the enrichment of the 57Fe and 58Fe. Fourteen days after the experimental diet, non-heme iron absorption was assessed by measuring 57Fe incorporation into red blood cells, and absorbed iron utilization was determined according to the red blood cell incorporation of intravenously infused 58Fe SO4. Results: Non-heme iron intake values overall, and in the rice and steamed buns groups were 12.8 ±2.1, 11.3±1.3 and 14.3±1.5 mg, respectively; the mean 57Fe absorption rates were 11±7%, 13±7%, and 8±4%, respectively; and the mean infused 58Fe utilization rates were 85±8%, 84±6%, and 85±10%, respectively. There was no significantly difference in the iron intakes, and 57Fe absorption and infused 58Fe utilization rates between rice and steamed buns groups (all P>0.05). Conclusion: We present the non-heme iron absorption and utilization rates from typical whole Chinese diets among young Chinese healthy urban men, which was not affected by the representative staple food patterns of Southern and Northern China. This study will provide a basis for the setting of Chinese iron DRIs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]