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High fertility rates among disadvantaged subgroups are a public health problem because fertility levels significantly affect socioeconomic conditions and a population’s welfare. This paper aims to analyze the sociodemographic, behavioral, and reproductive factors associated with fertility rates among Brazilian women aged between 15–49 years. A Poisson regression was used to analyze data from the 2006 PNDS (Pesquisa Nacional de Demografia e Saúde da Criança e da Mulher), which evaluates socioeconomic, demographic, geographic, reproductive, behavioral, and chronic disease variables. The results show that the following characteristics are positively associated with an increase in the number of children born: being aged 20–24, residing in the North, being nonwhite, not being in paid employment, having lower education levels, having lower socioeconomic status, being in a stable union, having the first sexual intercourse before the age of 16 and having the first child before the age of 20. Thus, it is important to implement efficient family planning policies targeting these subgroups in order to improve life conditions, reduce inequalities and avoid the adverse outcomes of high fertility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a global pandemic metabolic disorder. In recent years, the amount of medical resources required for the treatment of diabetes has increased as diabetes rates have gradually risen. The combined effects of individual and neighbourhood socio-economic status (SES) on DM survival rates are still not clear, especially in patients of working age. In this paper, we aim to analyze the combined effects of neighbourhood and individual SES on DM survival rates in patients of working age in Taiwan. Methods: The study of 23,781 people who were diagnosed with DM by using population—based study between 2002 and 2006. Each sample was followed up for 4 years or as a sensor case. We defined Individual SES and neighbourhood SES by each patient’s job category and household income which characterized as advantaged or disadvantaged. Then we compared the survival rates by SES group used Cox proportional hazards model for adjust risk factors. Results: The 4-year overall survival rates of diabetic patients were worst for those with low individual SES who living in advantaged neighbourhoods. After adjustment for patient characteristics, DM patients with high individual SES living in disadvantaged neighbourhoods had the same risk of mortality as those patients with high individual SES living in advantaged neighbourhoods (hazard ratio: 1.11; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.81–1.51). The study found that DM patients with low individual SES who live in disadvantaged areas had a greater risk of mortality than those with high SES (odds ratio: 2.57; 95% CI: 2.04–3.24). There were significant differences in survival rates between patients with high individual SES and patients with low individual SES. In contrast, the results did not statistically significant differences in survival rates between advantaged and disadvantaged neighbourhood SES groups. Conclusion: DM patients with low individual SES had the worst survival rate, regardless of whether they were living in a high or low SES neighbourhood area. The competitive cause of death, i.e., the fact that complications, rather than DM itself, are often the cause of death, may be the reason for the inverse relationship found between the effects of individual SES and neighbourhood SES on DM survival. We conclude that the socio-economic gradient in survival among DM patients may be the result of differences in access to medical treatment and attributes related to individual SES. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A large literature links early-life environmental shocks to later outcomes. This paper uses seasonal variation across the Democratic Republic of the Congo to test for nutrition smoothing, defined here as attaining similar height, weight and mortality outcomes despite different agroclimatic conditions at birth. We find that gaps between siblings and neighbors born at different times of year are larger in more remote rural areas, farther from the equator where there are greater seasonal differences in rainfall and temperature. For those born at adverse times in places with pronounced seasonality, the gains associated with above-median proximity to nearby towns are similar to rising one quintile in the national distribution of household wealth for mortality, and two quintiles for attained height. Smoothing of outcomes could involve a variety of mechanisms to be addressed in future work, including access to food markets, health services, public assistance and temporary migration to achieve more uniform dietary intake, or less exposure and improved recovery from seasonal diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dry subtropics are subject to a rapid expansion of crops and pastures over vast areas of natural woodlands and savannas. In this paper, we explored the effect of this transformation on vegetation productivity (magnitude, and seasonal and long-term variability) along aridity gradients which span from semiarid to subhumid conditions, considering exclusively those areas with summer rains (>66%). Vegetation productivity was characterized with the proxy metric “Enhanced Vegetation Index” (EVI) (2000 to 2012 period), on 6186 natural and cultivated sampling points on five continents, and combined with a global climatology database by means of additive models for quantile regressions. Globally and regionally, cultivation amplified the seasonal and inter-annual variability of EVI without affecting its magnitude. Natural and cultivated systems maintained a similar and continuous increase of EVI with increasing water availability, yet achieved through contrasting ways. In natural systems, the productivity peak and the growing season length displayed concurrent steady increases with water availability, while in cultivated systems the productivity peak increased from semiarid to dry-subhumid conditions, and stabilized thereafter giving place to an increase in the growing season length towards wetter conditions. Our results help to understand and predict the ecological impacts of deforestation on vegetation productivity, a key ecosystem process linked to a broad range of services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The lake minnow (Eupallasella percnurus) is critically endangered. In this paper we characterize the genetic properties of this fish over its range of occurrence in Poland and propose the use of this knowledge in its active protection. Twelve populations of lake minnow from across its range in Poland were investigated. 13 microsatellite loci were investigated to evaluate genetic variation and distance among populations. The magnitude of the genetic bottleneck or founder effects was investigated. In the studied populations, the allelic diversity and heterozygosity showed that genetic variation in this species is low. At most loci, only 2–3 alleles per population were detected. The average number of alleles detected across all loci was 35, and ranged from 24 to 53. The average observed heterozygosity (Ho) across all investigated loci was 0.38 (range 0.21–0.59); the average expected heterozygosity (He) was 0.36 (range 0.18–0.55). The populations remained in Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. The average Garza-Williamson M index value for all populations was low (0.47), suggesting a reduction in genetic variation due to a founder effect or a genetic bottleneck. Genetic distance among populations was high or very high (FST range: 0.20–0.64; δμ2 range: 1.32–16.98); this was likely a consequence of low gene flow among isolated populations, a founder effect or other genetic bottleneck, and strong genetic drift. The large genetic differences among the investigated lake minnow populations are likely to also exist among other populations of this species, and knowledge of these differences should inform active protection programs based on translocation of wild or cultivated fish of this species. The method presented here can potentially be applied to any population of lake minnows or closely related species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pottery, bone implements, and stone tools are routinely found at Neolithic sites. However, the integrity of textiles or silk is susceptible to degradation, and it is therefore very difficult for such materials to be preserved for 8,000 years. Although previous studies have provided important evidence of the emergence of weaving skills and tools, such as figuline spinning wheels and osseous lamellas with traces of filament winding, there is a lack of direct evidence proving the existence of silk. In this paper, we explored evidence of prehistoric silk fibroin through the analysis of soil samples collected from three tombs at the Neolithic site of Jiahu. Mass spectrometry was employed and integrated with proteomics to characterize the key peptides of silk fibroin. The direct biomolecular evidence reported here showed the existence of prehistoric silk fibroin, which was found in 8,500-year-old tombs. Rough weaving tools and bone needles were also excavated, indicating the possibility that the Jiahu residents may possess the basic weaving and sewing skills in making textile. This finding may advance the study of the history of silk, and the civilization of the Neolithic Age. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the viability of relying on wind power to replace upwards of 60% of electricity generation in Alberta that would be lost if coal-fired generation is phased out. Using hourly wind data from 17 locations across Alberta, we are able to simulate the potential wind power output available to the Alberta grid when modern, 3.5 MW-capacity wind turbines are spread across the province. Using wind regimes for the years 2006 through 2015, we find that available wind power is less than 60% of installed capacity 98% of the time, and below 30% of capacity 74% of the time. There is only a small amount of correlation between wind speeds at different locations, but yet it remains necessary to rely on fossil fuel generation. Then, based on the results from a grid allocation model, we find that CO2 emissions can be reduced by about 30%, but only through a combination of investment in wind energy and reliance on purchases of hydropower from British Columbia. Only if nuclear energy is permitted into the generation mix would Alberta be able to meet its CO2-emissions reduction target in the electricity sector. With nuclear power, emissions can be reduced by upwards of 85%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil sealing (loss of soil resources due to extensive land covering for the purpose of house building, road construction etc.) and subsequent soil landscape pattern changes constitute typical environmental problems in many places worldwide. Previous studies concentrated on soil sealing in urbanized regions, whereas rural areas have not been given sufficient attention. Accordingly, this paper studies soil landscape pattern dynamics (i.e., landscape pattern changes in response to rural anthropogenic activities) in the Tiaoxi watershed (Zhejiang province, eastern China), in which surface sealing is by far the predominant component of human forcing with respect to environmental change. A novel approach of quantifying the impacts of rural anthropogenic activities on soil resources is presented. Specifically, quantitative relationships were derived between five soil landscape pattern metrics (patch density, edge density, shape index, Shannon’s diversity index and aggregation index) and three rural anthropogenic activity indicators (anthropogenic activity intensity, distance to towns, and distance to roads) at two landscape block scales (3 and 5 km) between 1985 and 2010. The results showed that the Tiaoxi watershed experienced extensive rural settlement expansion and high rates of soil sealing. Soil landscapes became more fragmented, more irregular, more isolated, and less diverse. Relationships between soil landscape pattern changes and rural anthropogenic activities differed with the scale (spatial and temporal) and variable considered. In particular, the anthropogenic activity intensity was found to be the most important indicator explaining social development intensity, whereas the other two proximity indicators had a significant impact at certain temporal interval. In combination with scale effects, spatial dependency (correlation) was shown to play a key role that should be carefully taken into consideration in any relevant environmental study. Overall, the findings of this work suggest that soil sealing can be a critical human forcing issue with considerable consequences deserving serious attention by the experts, the public and the government alike. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The advent of cheap smartphones in rural areas across the globe presents an opportunity to change the mode with which researchers engage hard-to-reach populations. In particular, smartphones allow researchers to connect with respondents more frequently than standard household surveys, opening a new window into important short-term variability in key measures of household and community wellbeing. In this paper, we present early results from a pilot study in rural Bangladesh using a ‘microtasks for micropayments’ model to collect a range of community and household living standards data using Android smartphones. We find that more frequent task repetition with shorter recall periods leads to more inclusive reporting, improved capture of intra-seasonal variability, and earlier signals of events such as illness. Payments in the form of mobile talk time and data provide a positive development externality in the form of expanded access to mobile internet and social networks. Taken to scale, programs such as this have potential to transform data collection in rural areas, providing near-real-time windows into the development of markets, the spread of illnesses, or the diffusion of ideas and innovations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Media, and particularly TV media, have a great impact on the general public. In recent years, spatial patterns of information and the relevance of intangible geographies have become increasingly important. Gatekeeping plays a critical role in the selection of information that is transformed into media. Therefore, gatekeeping, through national media, also co-forms the generation of mental maps. In this paper, correspondence analysis (a statistical method) combined with cloud lines (a new visual analytics technique) is used to analyze how individual major regional events in one of the post-communist countries, the Czech Republic, penetrate into the media on a national scale. Although national news should minimize distortions about regions, this assumption has not been verified by our research. Impressions presented by the media of selected regions that were markedly influenced by one or several events in those regions demonstrate that gatekeepers, especially news reporters, functioned as a filter by selecting only a few specific, and in many cases, unusual events for dissemination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In previous work, the authors demonstrated how data from climate simulations can be utilized to estimate regional wind power densities. In particular, it was shown that the quality of wind power densities, estimated from the UPSCALE global dataset in offshore regions of Mexico, compared well with regional high resolution studies. Additionally, a link between surface temperature and moist air density in the estimates was presented. UPSCALE is an acronym for UK on PRACE (the Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe)—weather-resolving Simulations of Climate for globAL Environmental risk. The UPSCALE experiment was performed in 2012 by NCAS (National Centre for Atmospheric Science)-Climate, at the University of Reading and the UK Met Office Hadley Centre. The study included a 25.6-year, five-member ensemble simulation of the HadGEM3 global atmosphere, at 25km resolution for present climate conditions. The initial conditions for the ensemble runs were taken from consecutive days of a test configuration. In the present paper, the emphasis is placed on the single climate run for a potential future climate scenario in the UPSCALE experiment dataset, using the Representation Concentrations Pathways (RCP) 8.5 climate change scenario. Firstly, some tests were performed to ensure that the results using only one instantiation of the current climate dataset are as robust as possible within the constraints of the available data. In order to achieve this, an artificial time series over a longer sampling period was created. Then, it was shown that these longer time series provided almost the same results than the short ones, thus leading to the argument that the short time series is sufficient to capture the climate. Finally, with the confidence that one instantiation is sufficient, the future climate dataset was analysed to provide, for the first time, a projection of future changes in wind power resources using the UPSCALE dataset. It is hoped that this, in turn, will provide some guidance for wind power developers and policy makers to prepare and adapt for climate change impacts on wind energy production. Although offshore locations around Mexico were used as a case study, the dataset is global and hence the methodology presented can be readily applied at any desired location. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Subtropical reefs provide an important habitat for flora and fauna, and proper monitoring is required for conservation. Monitoring these exposed and submerged reefs is challenging and available resources are limited. Citizen science is increasing in momentum, as an applied research tool and in the variety of monitoring approaches adopted. This paper aims to demonstrate an ecological assessment and mapping approach that incorporates both top-down (volunteer marine scientists) and bottom-up (divers/community) engagement aspects of citizen science, applied at a subtropical reef at Point Lookout, Southeast Queensland, Australia. Marine scientists trained fifty citizen scientists in survey techniques that included mapping of habitat features, recording of substrate, fish and invertebrate composition, and quantifying impacts (e.g., occurrence of substrate damage, presence of litter). In 2014 these volunteers conducted four seasonal surveys along semi-permanent transects, at five sites, across three reefs. The project presented is a model on how citizen science can be conducted in a marine environment through collaboration of volunteer researchers, non-researchers and local marine authorities. Significant differences in coral and algal cover were observed among the three sites, while fluctuations in algal cover were also observed seasonally. Differences in fish assemblages were apparent among sites and seasons, with subtropical fish groups observed more commonly in colder seasons. The least physical damage occurred in the most exposed sites (Flat Rock) within the highly protected marine park zones. The broad range of data collected through this top-down/bottom-up approach to citizen science exemplifies the projects’ value and application for identifying ecosystem trends or patterns. The results of the project support natural resource and marine park management, providing a valuable contribution to existing scientific knowledge and the conservation of local reefs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Severe outbreaks of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) have occurred in China for decades. Our understanding of the HFMD transmission process and its determinants is still limited. In this paper, factors that affect the local variation of HFMD transmission process were studied. Three classes of factors, including meteorological, demographic and public health intervention factors, were carefully selected and their effects on HFMD transmission were investigated with Pearson’s correlation coefficient and multiple linear regression models. The determining factors for the variation of HFMD transmission were different for the southeastern and the northwestern regions of China. In the northwest, fadeouts occurred yearly, and the average age at infection and the fadeout were negatively correlated with the population density. In the southeast, HFMD transmission was governed by the combined effects of the birth rate, the relative humidity and the interaction of the Health System Performance and the log of the population density. When the Health System Performance was low, HFMD transmission increased with the population density, but when the Health System Performance was high, the better health performance counteracted the transmission increase due to the higher population density. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban authorities are continuously drawing up policies to promote cycling among commuters. However, these initiatives are counterproductive for the targeted objectives because they increase opportunities for bicycle theft. This paper explores Inner London as a case study to address place-specific risk factors for bicycle theft at the street-segment level while controlling for seasonal variation. The presence of certain public amenities (e.g., bicycle stands, railway stations, pawnshops) was evaluated against locations of bicycle theft between 2013 and 2016 and risk effects were estimated using negative binomial regression models. Results showed that a greater level of risk stemmed from land-use facilities than from area-based socioeconomic status. The presence of facilities such as train stations, vacant houses, pawnbrokers and payday lenders increased bicycle theft, but no evidence was found that linked police stations with crime levels. The findings have significant implications for urban crime prevention with respect to non-residential land use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change will worsen the high levels of urban vulnerability in Latin American cities due to specific environmental stressors. Some impacts of climate change, such as high temperatures in urban environments, have not yet been addressed through adaptation strategies, which are based on poorly supported data. These impacts remain outside the scope of urban planning. New spatially explicit approaches that identify highly vulnerable urban areas and include specific adaptation requirements are needed in current urban planning practices to cope with heat hazards. In this paper, a heat vulnerability index is proposed for Santiago, Chile. The index was created using a GIS-based spatial information system and was constructed from spatially explicit indexes for exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity levels derived from remote sensing data and socio-economic information assessed via principal component analysis (PCA). The objective of this study is to determine the levels of heat vulnerability at local scales by providing insights into these indexes at the intra city scale. The results reveal a spatial pattern of heat vulnerability with strong variations among individual spatial indexes. While exposure and adaptive capacities depict a clear spatial pattern, sensitivity follows a complex spatial distribution. These conditions change when examining PCA results, showing that sensitivity is more robust than exposure and adaptive capacity. These indexes can be used both for urban planning purposes and for proposing specific policies and measures that can help minimize heat hazards in highly dynamic urban areas. The proposed methodology can be applied to other Latin American cities to support policy making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Mosquitia ecosystem of Honduras occupies the fulcrum between the American continents and as such constitutes a critical region for understanding past patterns of socio-political development and interaction. Heavy vegetation, rugged topography, and remoteness have limited scientific investigation. This paper presents prehistoric patterns of settlement and landuse for a critical valley within the Mosquitia derived from airborne LiDAR scanning and field investigation. We show that (i) though today the valley is a wilderness it was densely inhabited in the past; (ii) that this population was organized into a three-tiered system composed of 19 settlements dominated by a city; and, (iii) that this occupation was embedded within a human engineered landscape. We also add to a growing body of literature that demonstrates the utility of LiDAR as means for rapid cultural assessments in undocumented regions for analysis and conservation. Our ultimate hope is for our work to promote protections to safeguard the unique and critically endangered Mosquitia ecosystem and other similar areas in need of preservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we describe 485 Oliva spp. shell beads recovered from four archaeological cave sites Jerimalai, Lene Hara, Matja Kuru 1, and Matja Kuru 2, located in Timor-Leste, Island Southeast Asia. While Pleistocene-aged examples of modified marine shells used for personal ornamentation are common in African and Eurasian assemblages, they are exceedingly rare in Southeast Asia, leading some researchers to suggest that these Modern Human societies were less complex than those found further west. In Timor-Leste, the lowest Oliva bead to be recovered was directly dated to ca. 37,000 cal. BP, making it the oldest piece of personal ornamentation in Southeast Asia. Morphometric, taphonomic, use wear, and residue analyses of these beads alongside modern reference specimens, and experimentally made examples indicate that the Oliva shells were modified to be strung consecutively (as in a necklace), and while their mode of production changed remarkably little over the thousands of years they were utilised, an increase in their deposition around 6,000 cal. BP suggests that there was a change in their use coinciding with sea-level stabilisation. These tiny beads demonstrate that early Island Southeast Asian societies produced the same kinds of symbolic material culture we have come to expect from the more intensively studied African/Eurasian region, and that limited sampling and poor recovery methods have biased our perspectives of this region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ocean acidification (OA) has the potential to restructure ecosystems due to variation in species sensitivity to the projected changes in ocean carbon chemistry. Ecological models can be forced with scenarios of OA to help scientists, managers, and other stakeholders understand how ecosystems might change. We present a novel methodology for developing estimates of species sensitivity to OA that are regionally specific, and applied the method to the California Current ecosystem. To do so, we built a database of all published literature on the sensitivity of temperate species to decreased pH. This database contains 393 papers on 285 species and 89 multi-species groups from temperate waters around the world. Research on urchins and oysters and on adult life stages dominates the literature. Almost a third of the temperate species studied to date occur in the California Current. However, most laboratory experiments use control pH conditions that are too high to represent average current chemistry conditions in the portion of the California Current water column where the majority of the species live. We developed estimates of sensitivity to OA for functional groups in the ecosystem, which can represent single species or taxonomically diverse groups of hundreds of species. We based these estimates on the amount of available evidence derived from published studies on species sensitivity, how well this evidence could inform species sensitivity in the California Current ecosystem, and the agreement of the available evidence for a species/species group. This approach is similar to that taken by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to characterize certainty when summarizing scientific findings. Most functional groups (26 of 34) responded negatively to OA conditions, but when uncertainty in sensitivity was considered, only 11 groups had relationships that were consistently negative. Thus, incorporating certainty about the sensitivity of species and functional groups to OA is an important part of developing robust scenarios for ecosystem projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The scientific community has recognized the importance of integrating farmer’s perceptions and knowledge (FPK) for the development of sustainable pest and disease management strategies. However, the knowledge gap between indigenous and scientific knowledge still contributes to misidentification of plant health constraints and poor adoption of management solutions. This is particularly the case in the context of smallholder farming in developing countries. In this paper, we present a case study on coffee production in Uganda, a sector depending mostly on smallholder farming facing a simultaneous and increasing number of socio-ecological pressures. The objectives of this study were (i) to examine and relate FPK on Arabica Coffee Pests and Diseases (CPaD) to altitude and the vegetation structure of the production systems; (ii) to contrast results with perceptions from experts and (iii) to compare results with field observations, in order to identify constraints for improving the information flow between scientists and farmers. Data were acquired by means of interviews and workshops. One hundred and fifty farmer households managing coffee either at sun exposure, under shade trees or inter-cropped with bananas and spread across an altitudinal gradient were selected. Field sampling of the two most important CPaD was conducted on a subset of 34 plots. The study revealed the following findings: (i) Perceptions on CPaD with respect to their distribution across altitudes and perceived impact are partially concordant among farmers, experts and field observations (ii) There are discrepancies among farmers and experts regarding management practices and the development of CPaD issues of the previous years. (iii) Field observations comparing CPaD in different altitudes and production systems indicate ambiguity of the role of shade trees. According to the locality-specific variability in CPaD pressure as well as in FPK, the importance of developing spatially variable and relevant CPaD control practices is proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A number of concepts exist regarding how urbanization can be described as a process. Understanding this process that affects billions of people and its future development in a spatial manner is imperative to address related issues such as human quality of life. In the focus of spatially explicit studies on urbanization is typically a city, a particular urban region, an agglomeration. However, gaps remain in spatially explicit global models. This paper addresses that issue by examining the spatial dynamics of urban areas over time, for a full coverage of the world. The presented model identifies past, present and potential future hotspots of urbanization as a function of an urban area's spatial variation and age, whose relation could be depicted both as a proxy and as a path of urban development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evaluating the assessing results’ rationality for farmland quality (FQ) is usually qualitative and based on farmers and experts’ perceptions of soil quality and crop yield. Its quantitative checking still remains difficult and is likely ignored. In this paper, FQ in Xiuwu County, the Northwest Henan Province, China was evaluated by the gray relational analysis (GRA) method and the traditional analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. The consistency rate of two results was analysed. Research focused on proposing one method of testing the evaluation results’ rationality for FQ based on the crop yield. Firstly generating a grade map of crop yield and overlying it with the FQ evaluation maps. Then analysing their consistency rate for each grade in the same spatial position. Finally examining the consistency effects and allowing for a decision on adopting the results. The results showed that the area rate consistency and matching evaluation unit numbers between the two methods were 84.68% and 87.29%, respectively, and the space distribution was approximately equal. The area consistency rates between crop yield level and FQ evaluation levels by GRA and AHP were 78.15% and 74.29%, respectively. Therefore, the verifying effects of GRA and AHP were near, good and acceptable, and the FQ results from both could reflect the crop yield levels. The evaluation results by GCA, as a whole, were slightly more rational than that by AHP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While climate scientists have developed high resolution data sets on the distribution of climate risks, we still lack comparable data on the local distribution of public climate change opinions. This paper provides the first effort to estimate local climate and energy opinion variability outside the United States. Using a multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) approach, we estimate opinion in federal electoral districts and provinces. We demonstrate that a majority of the Canadian public consistently believes that climate change is happening. Belief in climate change’s causes varies geographically, with more people attributing it to human activity in urban as opposed to rural areas. Most prominently, we find majority support for carbon cap and trade policy in every province and district. By contrast, support for carbon taxation is more heterogeneous. Compared to the distribution of US climate opinions, Canadians believe climate change is happening at higher levels. This new opinion data set will support climate policy analysis and climate policy decision making at national, provincial and local levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Volunteered geographical information (VGI) and citizen science have become important sources data for much scientific research. In the domain of land cover, crowdsourcing can provide a high temporal resolution data to support different analyses of landscape processes. However, the scientists may have little control over what gets recorded by the crowd, providing a potential source of error and uncertainty. This study compared analyses of crowdsourced land cover data that were contributed by different groups, based on nationality (labelled Gondor and Non-Gondor) and on domain experience (labelled Expert and Non-Expert). The analyses used a geographically weighted model to generate maps of land cover and compared the maps generated by the different groups. The results highlight the differences between the maps how specific land cover classes were under- and over-estimated. As crowdsourced data and citizen science are increasingly used to replace data collected under the designed experiment, this paper highlights the importance of considering between group variations and their impacts on the results of analyses. Critically, differences in the way that landscape features are conceptualised by different groups of contributors need to be considered when using crowdsourced data in formal scientific analyses. The discussion considers the potential for variation in crowdsourced data, the relativist nature of land cover and suggests a number of areas for future research. The key finding is that the veracity of citizen science data is not the critical issue per se. Rather, it is important to consider the impacts of differences in the semantics, affordances and functions associated with landscape features held by different groups of crowdsourced data contributors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wild boar (Sus scrofa) are widely distributed throughout the Old World. Most studies have focused on Europe and East Asia with the genetic diversity of West Asia being less well studied. In particular, the genetic variability and genetic structure of the Iranian populations are not yet known; gaps which prevent scientists from resolving the genetic relationships of the Eurasian wild boar. This paper is the first attempt to provide information about genetic relationships among modern Iranian populations of the Eurasian wild boar (S. scrofa) by sequencing 572 bp of the mitochondrial (mt) DNA control region. As a result of this investigation, it was discovered that Iran contains not only Middle Eastern haplotypes, but also shares haplotypes with Europe and East Asia. The Italian clade, which is endemic in Italy, is not identified in Iran, while all other clades, including Asiatic, European, Near East 1, and Near East 2 are found based on the phylogenetic tree and median-joining network. The results of this study illustrate that north west of Iran (specifically Southwest Caspian Sea) is the contact zone between the Asian (Near Eastern and Far Eastern), and the European clades. In light of the fact that the domestication of pigs occurs in Anatolia, this finding is important. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pigs have played a major role in the economic, social and symbolic systems of China since the Early Neolithic more than 8,000 years ago. However, the interaction between the history of pig domestication and transformations in Chinese society since then, have not been fully explored. In this paper, we investigated the co-evolution from the earliest farming communities through to the new political and economic models of state-like societies, up to the Chinese Empire, using 5,000 years of archaeological records from the Xiawanggang (XWG) and Xinzhai (XZ) sites (Henan Province). To trace the changes of pig populations against husbandry practices, we combined the geometric morphometric analysis of dental traits with a study of the stable carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios from bone collagen. The domestication process intensified during the Neolithic Yangshao, prompted by greater selective pressure and/or better herd control against wild introgression. After that, pig farming, in XWG, relied on local livestock and a gradual change of husbandry practices overtime. This was characterized by a gentle increase in millet foddering and animal protein intake, until a complete change over to household management during the Han dynasty. The only rupture in this steady trend of husbandry occurred during the Longshan period, with the appearance of small sized and idiosyncratic pigs with specific feeding practices (relying on millet and household scraps). From three exploratory hypothesis, we explored the possibility of anti-elite pig production in XWG during the Longshan period, as a means to resist incorporation into a new economic model promoting intensified domestic production. This exploratory hypothesis is the most suitable to our dataset; however, numerous areas need to be explored further in order to adequately document the role of pigs in the rise of China’s complex societies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The conservation of aquatic plants in river ecosystems should consider the wash-out (away) problem resulting from severe rainfall. The aquatic plant Schoenoplectus gemmifer is an endangered species endemic to Japan. Our previous study reported that the population size of S. gemmifer in Hamamatsu city, Japan, had decreased by one-tenth because many individuals had been washed out by a series of heavy rains in 2004. However, there is insufficient information on the ecological nature of this endangered aquatic plant for adequate conservation. In this paper, we report the population dynamics of one population in Hamamatsu city from 2004 to 2012 in relation to rainfall. We surveyed the number and growing location of all living individuals in the population 300 times during the study period. To examine the temporal changes of individual plants, we also counted the number of culms for 38 individuals in four observations among 300 records. Decreases and increases in the population size of this plant were associated with washing out and the settlement of gemmae (vegetative propagation), respectively. The major cause of the reduction in the population size was an increase in the number of washed-out individuals and not the decreased settlement of gemmae. The wash-out rates for small and large individuals were not significantly different. Small individuals having a stream form with linear leaves resisted flooding, and large individuals were often partially torn off by flooding events. Modification of river basins to reduce the flow velocity may be effective for the conservation of S. gemmifer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The success of bootstrapping or replacing a human judge with a model (e.g., an equation) has been demonstrated in Paul Meehl’s (1954) seminal work and bolstered by the results of several meta-analyses. To date, however, analyses considering different types of meta-analyses as well as the potential dependence of bootstrapping success on the decision domain, the level of expertise of the human judge, and the criterion for what constitutes an accurate decision have been missing from the literature. In this study, we addressed these research gaps by conducting a meta-analysis of lens model studies. We compared the results of a traditional (bare-bones) meta-analysis with findings of a meta-analysis of the success of bootstrap models corrected for various methodological artifacts. In line with previous studies, we found that bootstrapping was more successful than human judgment. Furthermore, bootstrapping was more successful in studies with an objective decision criterion than in studies with subjective or test score criteria. We did not find clear evidence that the success of bootstrapping depended on the decision domain (e.g., education or medicine) or on the judge’s level of expertise (novice or expert). Correction of methodological artifacts increased the estimated success of bootstrapping, suggesting that previous analyses without artifact correction (i.e., traditional meta-analyses) may have underestimated the value of bootstrapping models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A common policy approach to reducing childhood obesity aims to shape the environment in which children spend most of their time: neighborhoods and schools. This paper uses richly detailed data on the body mass index (BMI) of all New York City public school students in grades K-8 to assess the potential for place-based approaches to reduce child obesity. We document variation in the prevalence of obesity across NYC public schools and census tracts, and then estimate the extent to which this variation can be explained by differences in individual-level predictors (such as race and household income). Both unadjusted and adjusted variability across neighborhoods and schools suggest place-based policies have the potential to meaningfully reduce child obesity, but under most realistic scenarios the improvement would be modest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: The paper examines whether out-of-pocket health care expenditure also has regional discrepancies, comparing to the equity between urban and rural areas, and across households. Method: Sampled data were derived from Urban Household Survey and Rural Household Survey data for 2011/2012 for Anhui Province, and 11049 households were included in this study. The study compared differences in out-of-pocket expenditure on health care between regions (urban vs. rural areas) and years (2011 vs. 2012) using two-sample t-test, and also investigated the degree of inequality using Lorenz and concentration curves. Result: Approximately 5% and 8% of total household consumption expenditure was spent on health care for urban and rural populations, respectively. In 2012, the wealthiest 20% of urban and rural population contributed 49.7% and 55.8% of urban and rural total health expenditure respectively, while the poorest 20% took only 4.7% and 4.4%. The concentration curve for out-of-pocket expenditure in 2012 fell below the corresponding concentration curve for 2011 for both urban and rural areas, and the difference between curves for rural areas was greater than that for urban areas. Conclusion: A substantial and increasing gap in health care expenditures existed between urban and rural areas in Anhui. The health care financing inequality merits ample attention, with need for policymaking to focus on improving the accessibility to essential health care services, particularly for rural and poor residents. This study may provide useful information on low income areas of China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasingly, ‘place’, including physical and geographical characteristics as well as social meanings, is recognized as an important factor driving individual and community health risks. This is especially true among marginalized populations in low and middle income countries (LMIC), whose environments may also be more difficult to study using traditional methods. In the NIH-funded longitudinal study Mapa de Salud, we employed a novel approach to exploring the risk environment of female sex workers (FSWs) in two Mexico/U.S. border cities, Tijuana and Ciudad Juárez. In this paper we describe the development, implementation, and feasibility of a mix of quantitative and qualitative tools used to capture the HIV risk environments of FSWs in an LMIC setting. The methods were: 1) Participatory mapping; 2) Quantitative interviews; 3) Sex work venue field observation; 4) Time-location-activity diaries; 5) In-depth interviews about daily activity spaces. We found that the mixed-methodology outlined was both feasible to implement and acceptable to participants. These methods can generate geospatial data to assess the role of the environment on drug and sexual risk behaviors among high risk populations. Additionally, the adaptation of existing methods for marginalized populations in resource constrained contexts provides new opportunities for informing public health interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Effective and timely quantification of the spatiotemporal pattern of urban expansion in China is important for the assessment of its environmental effects. However, the dynamics of the most recent urban expansions in China since 2012 have not yet been adequately explained due to a lack of current information. In this paper, our objective was to quantify spatiotemporal patterns of urban expansion in China between 1992 and 2015. First, we extracted information on urban expansion in China between 1992 and 2015 by integrating nighttime light data, vegetation index data, and land surface temperature data. Then we analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of urban expansion at the national and regional scales, as well as at that of urban agglomerations. We found that China experienced a rapid and large-scale process of urban expansion between 1992 and 2015, with urban land increasing from 1.22 × 104 km2 to 7.29 × 104 km2, increasing in size nearly fivefold and with an average annual growth rate of 8.10%, almost 2.5 times as rapid as the global average. We also found that urban land in China expanded mainly by occupying 3.31 × 104 km2 of cropland, which comprised 54.67% of the total area of expanded urban land. Among the three modes of growth—infilling, edge expansion, and leapfrog—edge expansion was the main cause of cropland loss. Cropland loss resulting from edge expansion of urban land totalled 2.51 × 104 km2, accounting for over 75% of total cropland loss. We suggest that effective future management with respect to edge expansion of urban land is needed to protect cropland in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to increase understanding of the relative importance of the input of geographic and local environmental factors on richness and composition of epigaeic steppe beetles (Coleoptera: Carabidae and Tenebrionidae) along a geographic (longitudinal/precipitation) gradient in the Inner Mongolia grassland. Specifically, we evaluate the associations of environmental variables representing climate and environmental heterogeneity with beetle assemblages. Beetles were sampled using pitfall traps at 25 sites scattered across the full geographic extent of the study biome in 2011–2012. We used variance partitioning techniques and multi-model selection based on the Akaike information criterion to assess the relative importance of the spatial and environmental variables on beetle assemblages. Species richness and abundance showed unimodal patterns along the geographic gradient. Together with space, climate variables associated with precipitation, water-energy balance and harshness of climate had strong explanatory power in richness pattern. Abundance pattern showed strongest association with variation in temperature and environmental heterogeneity. Climatic factors associated with temperature and precipitation variables and the interaction between climate with space were able to explain a substantial amount of variation in community structure. In addition, the turnover of species increased significantly as geographic distances increased. We confirmed that spatial and local environmental factors worked together to shape epigaeic beetle communities along the geographic gradient in the Inner Mongolia grassland. Moreover, the climate features, especially precipitation, water-energy balance and temperature, and the interaction between climate with space and environmental heterogeneity appeared to play important roles on controlling richness and abundance, and species compositions of epigaeic beetles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The timing of the biannual WHO influenza vaccine composition selection and production cycle has been historically directed to the influenza seasonality patterns in the temperate regions of the northern and southern hemispheres. Influenza activity, however, is poorly understood in the tropics with multiple peaks and identifiable year-round activity. The evidence-base needed to take informed decisions on vaccination timing and vaccine formulation is often lacking for the tropics and subtropics. This paper aims to assess influenza seasonality in the tropics and subtropics. It explores geographical grouping of countries into vaccination zones based on optimal timing of influenza vaccination. Methods: Influenza seasonality was assessed by different analytic approaches (weekly proportion of positive cases, time series analysis, etc.) using FluNet and national surveillance data. In case of discordance in the seasonality assessment, consensus was built through discussions with in-country experts. Countries with similar onset periods of their primary influenza season were grouped into geographical zones. Results: The number and period of peak activity was ascertained for 70 of the 138 countries in the tropics and subtropics. Thirty-seven countries had one and seventeen countries had two distinct peaks. Countries near the equator had secondary peaks or even identifiable year-round activity. The main influenza season in most of South America and Asia started between April and June. The start of the main season varied widely in Africa (October and December in northern Africa, April and June in Southern Africa and a mixed pattern in tropical Africa). Eight “influenza vaccination zones” (two each in America and Asia, and four in Africa and Middle East) were defined with recommendations for vaccination timing and vaccine formulation. The main limitation of our study is that FluNet and national surveillance data may lack the granularity to detect sub-national variability in seasonality patterns. Conclusion: Distinct influenza seasonality patterns, though complex, could be ascertained for most countries in the tropics and subtropics using national surveillance data. It may be possible to group countries into zones based on similar recommendations for vaccine timing and formulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Species distribution models (SDMs) are an effective way of predicting the potential distribution of species and their response to environmental change. Most SDMs apply presence data to a relatively generic set of predictive variables such as climate. However, this weakens the modelling process by overlooking the responses to more cryptic predictive variables. In this paper we demonstrate a means by which data gathered from an intensive animal trapping study can be used to enhance SDMs by combining field data with bioclimatic modelling techniques to determine the future potential distribution for the koomal (Trichosurus vulpecula hypoleucus). The koomal is a geographically isolated subspecies of the common brushtail possum, endemic to south-western Australia. Since European settlement this taxon has undergone a significant reduction in distribution due to its vulnerability to habitat fragmentation, introduced predators and tree/shrub dieback caused by a virulent group of plant pathogens of the genus Phytophthora. An intensive field study found: 1) the home range for the koomal rarely exceeded 1 km in in length at its widest point; 2) areas heavily infested with dieback were not occupied; 3) gap crossing between patches (>400 m) was common behaviour; 4) koomal presence was linked to the extent of suitable vegetation; and 5) where the needs of koomal were met, populations in fragments were demographically similar to those found in contiguous landscapes. We used this information to resolve a more accurate SDM for the koomal than that created from bioclimatic data alone. Specifically, we refined spatial coverages of remnant vegetation and dieback, to develop a set of variables that we combined with selected bioclimatic variables to construct models. We conclude that the utility value of an SDM can be enhanced and given greater resolution by identifying variables that reflect observed, species-specific responses to landscape parameters and incorporating these responses into the model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: A Job Exposure Matrix (JEM) for psychosocial job stressors allows assessment of these exposures at a population level. JEMs are particularly useful in situations when information on psychosocial job stressors were not collected individually and can help eliminate the biases that may be present in individual self-report accounts. This research paper describes the development of a JEM in the Australian context. Methods: The Household Income Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey was used to construct a JEM for job control, job demands and complexity, job insecurity, and fairness of pay. Population median values of these variables for all employed people (n = 20,428) were used to define individual exposures across the period 2001 to 2012. The JEM was calculated for the Australian and New Zealand Standard Classification of Occupations (ANZSCO) at the four-digit level, which represents 358 occupations. Both continuous and binary exposures to job stressors were calculated at the 4-digit level. We assessed concordance between the JEM-assigned and individually-reported exposures using the Kappa statistic, sensitivity and specificity assessments. We conducted regression analysis using mental health as an outcome measure. Results: Kappa statistics indicate good agreement between individually-reported and JEM-assigned dichotomous measures for job demands and control, and moderate agreement for job insecurity and fairness of pay. Job control, job demands and security had the highest sensitivity, while specificity was relatively high for the four exposures. Regression analysis shows that most individually reported and JEM measures were significantly associated with mental health, and individually-reported exposures produced much stronger effects on mental health than the JEM-assigned exposures. Discussion: These JEM-based estimates of stressors exposure provide a conservative proxy for individual-level data, and can be applied to a range of health and organisational outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses original survey data of the Great East Japan earthquake disaster victims to examine their decision to apply for the temporary housing as well as the timing of application. We assess the effects of victims’ attachment to their locality as well as variation in victims’ information seeking behavior. We additionally consider various factors such as income, age, employment and family structure that are generally considered to affect the decision to choose temporary housing as victims’ solution for their displacement. Empirical results indicate that, ceteris paribus, as the degree of attachment increases, victims are more likely to apply for the temporary housing but attachment does not affect the timing of application. On the other hand, the victims who actively seek information and are able to collect higher quality information are less likely to apply for the temporary housing and if they do apply then they apply relatively later. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Malignant diseases have been believed to be more common in some areas of Eastern Morocco, but until now, cancer patterns have not been reported for this region. In this paper we present for the first time the cancer prevalence analysis in Eastern Morocco. Methods: Cross-sectional study carried out among all patients diagnosed and/or treated with cancer at the Hassan II Regional Oncology Center (ROC) since it was established in October 2005 until December 2012. The ROC is the only hospital specialized in cancer care in Eastern Morocco. Results: A total of 8,508 cases of cancer were registered among residents in Eastern Morocco, with a female to male ratio of 2.1. The mean age at diagnosis was 53.9 ± 15.2 years (median age = 53 years). Thus, unlike in Western countries, cancer in Eastern Morocco afflicts younger population. The areas of Eastern Morocco did not differ significantly by mean age at diagnosis (p = 0.061). However, these regions differed significantly by sex ratio (p < 0.001). The highest sex ratio was observed in Figuig, with a female to male ratio of 3.1 (75.4% of the registered case were females), followed respectively by Taourirt, Oujda-Angad, Berkane, Nador-Driouch and Jerada. Clear variation in the distribution of cancer types between areas of Eastern Morocco was observed, both in males and females (p < 0.001). Furthermore, the areas of Eastern Morocco differed significantly by cancer prevalence (p < 0.001). The highest age-standardized five-year prevalence proportion was observed in Oujda-Angad with 420.2 per 100,000, followed respectively by Berkane (311.4), Jerada (287.8), Taourirt (269.3), Nador-Driouch (213.6) and Figuig (194.4). Trends in the five-year prevalence proportions decreased in Oujda-Angad, Berkane and Jerada throughout the study period, while an increasing trend was observed in Nador-Driouch, Taourirt and Figuig. Conclusions: For the first time, our study presents the pattern and distribution of diagnosed cancers in Eastern Morocco. Our study illustrates substantial differences in cancer patterns between areas of Eastern Morocco. These findings are important for cancer control and highlight the need to develop program aiming at controlling and preventing the spread of major cancer sites in Eastern Morocco, particularly in areas with increased cancer prevalence rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate estimates of global carbon emissions are critical for understanding global warming. This paper estimates net carbon emissions from land use change in Bolivia during the periods 1990–2000 and 2000–2010 using a model that takes into account deforestation, forest degradation, forest regrowth, gradual carbon decomposition and accumulation, as well as heterogeneity in both above ground and below ground carbon contents at the 10 by 10 km grid level. The approach permits detailed maps of net emissions by region and type of land cover. We estimate that net CO2 emissions from land use change in Bolivia increased from about 65 million tons per year during 1990–2000 to about 93 million tons per year during 2000–2010, while CO2 emissions per capita and per unit of GDP have remained fairly stable over the sample period. If we allow for estimated biomass increases in mature forests, net CO2 emissions drop to close to zero. Finally, we find these results are robust to alternative methods of calculating emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Ohio Department of Transportation has more than 60 facilities without sewer access generating approximately 19 million gallons of winter maintenance wash water. Off-site disposal is costly, creating the need for sustainable management strategies. The objective of this study was to conduct an exploratory feasibility analysis to assess wash water disposal and potential reuse as brine. Based on a comprehensive literature review and relevant environmental chemistry, a sampling protocol consisting of 31 water quality constituents was utilized for monthly sampling at three geographically distinct Ohio Department of Transportation garages during the winter of 2012. Results were compared to local disposal and reuse guidance limits. Three constituents, including a maximum copper concentration of 858 ppb, exceeded disposal limits, and many constituents also failed to meet reuse limits. Some concentrations were orders of magnitude higher than reuse limits and suggest pre-treatment would be necessary if wash water were reused as brine. These water quality results, in conjunction with copper chemical equilibrium modeling, show pH and dissolved carbon both significantly impact the total dissolved copper concentration and should be measured to assess reuse potential. The sampling protocol and specific obstacles highlighted in this paper aid in the future development of sustainable wash water management strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rainy weather conditions could result in significantly negative impacts on driving on freeways. However, due to lack of enough historical data and monitoring facilities, many regions are not able to establish reliable risk assessment models to identify such impacts. Given the situation, this paper provides an alternative solution where the procedure of risk assessment is developed based on drivers’ subjective questionnaire and its performance is validated by using actual crash data. First, an ordered logit model was developed, based on questionnaire data collected from Freeway G15 in China, to estimate the relationship between drivers’ perceived risk and factors, including vehicle type, rain intensity, traffic volume, and location. Then, weighted driving risk for different conditions was obtained by the model, and further divided into four levels of early warning (specified by colors) using a rank order cluster analysis. After that, a risk matrix was established to determine which warning color should be disseminated to drivers, given a specific condition. Finally, to validate the proposed procedure, actual crash data from Freeway G15 were compared with the safety prediction based on the risk matrix. The results show that the risk matrix obtained in the study is able to predict driving risk consistent with actual safety implications, under rainy weather conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scientific studies of society increasingly rely on digital traces produced by various aspects of human activity. In this paper, we exploit a relatively unexplored source of data–anonymized records of bank card transactions collected in Spain by a big European bank, and propose a new classification scheme of cities based on the economic behavior of their residents. First, we study how individual spending behavior is qualitatively and quantitatively affected by various factors such as customer’s age, gender, and size of his/her home city. We show that, similar to other socioeconomic urban quantities, individual spending activity exhibits a statistically significant superlinear scaling with city size. With respect to the general trends, we quantify the distinctive signature of each city in terms of residents’ spending behavior, independently from the effects of scale and demographic heterogeneity. Based on the comparison of city signatures, we build a novel classification of cities across Spain in three categories. That classification exhibits a substantial stability over different city definitions and connects with a meaningful socioeconomic interpretation. Furthermore, it corresponds with the ability of cities to attract foreign visitors, which is a particularly remarkable finding given that the classification was based exclusively on the behavioral patterns of city residents. This highlights the far-reaching applicability of the presented classification approach and its ability to discover patterns that go beyond the quantities directly involved in it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drawing upon the Landsat satellite images of Nanjing from 1985, 1995, 2001, 2007, and 2013, this paper integrates the convex hull analysis and common edge analysis at double scales, and develops a comprehensive matrix analysis to distinguish the different types of urban land expansion. The results show that Nanjing experienced rapid urban expansion, dominated by a mix of residential and manufacturing land from 1985 to 2013, which in turn has promoted Nanjing’s shift from a compact mononuclear city to a polycentric one. Spatial patterns of three specific types of growth, namely infilling, extension, and enclave were quite different in four consecutive periods. These patterns result primarily from the existing topographic constraints, as well as government-oriented urban planning and policies. By intersecting the function maps, we also reveal the functional evolution of newly-developed urban land. Moreover, both self-enhancing and mutual promotion of the newly developed functions are surveyed over the last decade. Our study confirms that the integration of a multi-scale method and multi-perspective analysis, such as the spatiotemporal patterns and functional evolution, helps us to better understand the rapid urban growth in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores several data mining and time series analysis methods for predicting the magnitude of the largest seismic event in the next year based on the previously recorded seismic events in the same region. The methods are evaluated on a catalog of 9,042 earthquake events, which took place between 01/01/1983 and 31/12/2010 in the area of Israel and its neighboring countries. The data was obtained from the Geophysical Institute of Israel. Each earthquake record in the catalog is associated with one of 33 seismic regions. The data was cleaned by removing foreshocks and aftershocks. In our study, we have focused on ten most active regions, which account for more than 80% of the total number of earthquakes in the area. The goal is to predict whether the maximum earthquake magnitude in the following year will exceed the median of maximum yearly magnitudes in the same region. Since the analyzed catalog includes only 28 years of complete data, the last five annual records of each region (referring to the years 2006–2010) are kept for testing while using the previous annual records for training. The predictive features are based on the Gutenberg-Richter Ratio as well as on some new seismic indicators based on the moving averages of the number of earthquakes in each area. The new predictive features prove to be much more useful than the indicators traditionally used in the earthquake prediction literature. The most accurate result (AUC = 0.698) is reached by the Multi-Objective Info-Fuzzy Network (M-IFN) algorithm, which takes into account the association between two target variables: the number of earthquakes and the maximum earthquake magnitude during the same year. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In geo-statistics, the Durbin-Watson test is frequently employed to detect the presence of residual serial correlation from least squares regression analyses. However, the Durbin-Watson statistic is only suitable for ordered time or spatial series. If the variables comprise cross-sectional data coming from spatial random sampling, the test will be ineffectual because the value of Durbin-Watson’s statistic depends on the sequence of data points. This paper develops two new statistics for testing serial correlation of residuals from least squares regression based on spatial samples. By analogy with the new form of Moran’s index, an autocorrelation coefficient is defined with a standardized residual vector and a normalized spatial weight matrix. Then by analogy with the Durbin-Watson statistic, two types of new serial correlation indices are constructed. As a case study, the two newly presented statistics are applied to a spatial sample of 29 China’s regions. These results show that the new spatial autocorrelation models can be used to test the serial correlation of residuals from regression analysis. In practice, the new statistics can make up for the deficiencies of the Durbin-Watson test. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The topics of climate change and renewable energy are often linked in policy discussions and scientific analysis, but public opinion on these topics exhibits both overlap and divergence. Although renewable energy has potentially broader acceptance than anthropogenic climate change, it can also face differently-based opposition. Analyses of US and regional surveys, including time series of repeated surveys in New Hampshire (2010–2018) and northeast Oregon (2011–2018), explore the social bases and trends of public views on both issues. Political divisions are prominent, although somewhat greater regarding climate change due to substantive differences and more partisan opposition. Regarding climate change and to a lesser extent renewable energy, political divisions tends to widen with education. There also are robust age and temporal effects: younger adults more often prioritize renewable energy development, and agree with scientists on the reality of anthropogenic climate change (ACC). Across all age groups and both regional series, support for renewable energy and recognition of ACC have been gradually rising. Contrary to widespread speculation, these trends have not visibly responded to events such as the US hurricanes of 2012, 2017 or 2018. Together with age-cohort replacement and the potential for changes in age-group voting participation, however, the gradual trends suggest that public pressure for action on these issues could grow. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Primates are extracted from the wild for the pet trade across the world. In Madagascar, lemurs are kept as illegal pets and an understanding of lemur pet ownership at the national level is lacking. In 2013 and 2016, we undertook a national survey in 11 of Madagascar’s 22 administrative regions (n = 28 towns) with 1,709 households. To our knowledge, this is the first national survey of the household ownership of pet primates in a country where they are endemic. In the 1.5 years prior to being surveyed, 8% ± 4% (towns as replicates) of respondents had seen a captive lemur while a further 0.7% ± 0.5% of respondents had owned one personally. We estimate that 33,428 ± 24,846 lemurs were kept in Malagasy households in the six months prior to our survey efforts, with 18,462 ± 12,963 of these pet lemurs estimated in urban household alone. Rates of lemur ownership did not differ by province but increased with the human population of a town and with the popularity of the town on Flickr (a proxy indicator for tourism). We found that the visibility of pet lemur ownership did not differ across the country, but it did increase with the size of the town and popularity with tourists. Areas with visible pet lemurs were not always the areas with the highest rates of pet lemur ownership, highlighting that many pet lemurs are hidden from the general public. Our study highlights the need for conservation programs to consider both the proportion of inhabitants that own pet lemurs and the total number of lemurs that are potentially being kept as pets in those towns. We close by noting that for some species, even just a small amount of localized live extraction for pet ownership could be enough to cause localized population extinctions over time. Moreover, an urgent response is needed to combat a recent and alarming rise in illegal exploitation of biodiversity across Madagascar. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modelling of internal migration to new cities is challenging, yet necessary to ensure that these newly established urban areas will be populated and function as intended. In the State of Kuwait, there is a unique set of push and pull factors: government subsidised housing for citizens, the existence of a single urban area, and the initiation of a new and ambitious master plan for the construction of 12 new cities, which are expected to attract not only locals, but also international residents and businesses. On top of these factors, there is an unusual demographic situation, as non-citizens outnumber Kuwaiti citizens by a factor of 2.3, with these groups having widely different preferences in terms of housing. Currently, there is no plan to take these resident groups’ opinions into consideration for the new cities project. Besides, the current study simulates the impacts of the involvement of residents in urban planning. Samples from resident groups (citizens and non-citizens) participated in targeted surveys and useful answers were extracted in relation to the migration likelihood, push and pull factors that may affect their decisions, spatial preferences for new cities and their opinions on segregation by nationality. Specifically, the survey results showed significant interest of residents in moving to the new cities. For citizens, the most important factors in deciding whether to move or not were proximity to their close family and housing availability, while for non-citizens the most important factor was the creation of new employment opportunities. Both survey groups agreed that existing city property prices are too high and make the prospect of moving to a new city more attractive. The responses were transferred in an Agent Based Model, and the simulations showed certain differences to the official projections for 2050 without the public responses, in regards to the geographical distribution of the most desirable suburbs. Furthermore, the simulations showed that in the new cities, nationality segregation levels are expected to drop by at least 15% compared to the 2015 levels. The findings may be utilised by the authorities to modify the master plan accordingly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To attain cleaner air, it is important that authorities make informed decisions when selecting a strategy. Concentrations of particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of less than or equal to 2.5 μm (PM 2.5) are high in the Tokyo metropolitan area, even though concentrations of particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of less than or equal to 10 μm (PM10) have dropped dramatically since the implementation of the NOx-PM Act. Currently, monitored concentration levels continue to exceed the designated ambient air quality standard set by the Japanese Ministry of the Environment. To our knowledge, no study has investigated a cost-efficient strategy for reducing PM 2.5 concentration levels in the Tokyo metropolitan area. This is the first study to examine a proper control strategy for Japan by developing an integrated model that includes both aerosol and economic models. The simulation results show that prefectures in the Tokyo metropolitan area cannot achieve the standards by relying on their own efforts to reduce PM 2.5. That is, prefectural governments in the Tokyo metropolitan areas need to cooperate with prefectures outside of the area to improve their PM 2.5 concentration levels. Thus, we simulated policies under the assumption that emissions from other sources are reduced to levels such that the PM 2.5 concentration declines by approximately 18 μg/m3. We first simulated an efficient policy, i.e., the implementation of a pollution tax. We found that the total abatement cost to meet the air quality standard using the cost-efficient strategy is approximately 142.7 billion yen. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Turtle shell rattles are percussion instruments used by Indigenous peoples of the Americas in ceremonial contexts to keep rhythm. Archaeological investigations in the southeastern United States produced several complete and partial Eastern box turtle (Terrapene carolina) shell rattles from mortuary contexts dating from the Archaic (ca. 8000–1000 BC) through Mississippian periods (ca. AD 800–1500). Fragmentary turtle remains, some identified as Eastern box turtle, are frequently recovered from non-mortuary contexts. Traditionally, these fragmentary remains are attributed to food waste. Given the archaeological and ethnographic evidence for turtle shell rattles, we need to consider how fragmentary remains might fit into the chaîne opératoire of rattle production. This paper presents the results of an experimental study designed to identify one such chaîne opératoire of rattle production. During this experiment, the data on taphonomic processes such as manufacturing marks, use-wear, and breakage patterns, were recorded. We then tested the taphonomic findings from the experimental study and an object trait list we compiled from known rattle specimens and documentary sources with archaeological turtle remains recovered from non-mortuary contexts at two Mississippian period (ca. AD 1000–1450) sites in Middle Tennessee. Historic indigenous groups are known to have, and still do into the present-day, make and use turtle shell rattles in the region. Ultimately, we determined that “food refuse” should not be the default interpretation of fragmentary box turtle remains, and instead the taphonomic history and contextual associations must be considered in full. The experimental process of crafting turtle shell rattles enhances our understanding of an ancient musical instrument and the success rate of identifying musical artifacts and distinguishing between other modified turtle remains in the archaeological record. This study expands our knowledge of ancient music in North America and prompts re-analysis of curated turtle remains in museums for rattle-related modifications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 2-sample mark-recapture method with Chapman’s estimator is often used by inland fishery managers to estimate the reach-scale abundance of stream fish. An important assumption of this method is that no dispersal into or out of the study reach occurs between the two samples. Violations of this assumption are probably common in practice, but their effect on bias (systematic error) of abundance estimates is poorly understood, especially in small populations. Estimation methods permitting dispersal exist but, for logistical reasons, often are infeasible for routine assessments in streams. The purpose of this paper is to extend available results regarding effects of dispersal on the bias of Chapman’s estimator as applied to reach-scale studies of stream fish abundance. We examine for the first time the joint effects of dispersal and sampling variation on the bias of this estimator. To reduce the bias effects of dispersal, we propose a modified sampling scheme in which the original study reach is expanded, a central subreach is sampled during the mark session (sample 1), and the entire reach is sampled during the recapture session (sample 2). This modified sampling scheme can substantially reduce bias effects of dispersal without requiring unique marking of individual fish or additional site visits. Analytical and simulation results show that sampling variation tends to create negative bias with respect to study-reach abundance, while dispersal tends to create positive bias; the net effect can be positive, negative, or zero, depending on the true abundance, capture probabilities, and amount and nature of dispersal. In most cases, simply expanding the study reach is an effective way to reduce dispersal-related bias of Chapman’s estimator, but expanding the study reach and employing the modified sampling scheme we propose is a better alternative for accurately estimating abundance with the same level of sampling effort. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]