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To balance the supply and demand in China's beef market, beef consumption must be scientifically and effectively forecasted. Beef consumption is affected by many factors and is characterized by gray uncertainty. Therefore, gray theory can be used to forecast the beef consumption, In this paper, the structural defects and unreasonable parameter design of the traditional gray model are analyzed. Then, a new gray model termed, EGM(1,1,r), is built, and the modeling conditions and error checking methods of EGM(1,1,r) are studied. Then, EGM(1,1,r) is used to simulate and forecast China’s beef consumption. The results show that both the simulation and prediction precisions of the new model are better than those of other gray models. Finally, the new model is used to forecast China’s beef consumption for the period from 2019–2025. The findings will serve as an important reference for the Chinese government in formulating policies to ensure the balance between the supply and demand for Chinese beef. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Many studies focused on reasons behind the increasing incidence and the spread of human brucellosis in mainland China, yet most of them lacked comprehensive consideration with quantitative evidence. Hence, this study aimed to further investigate the epidemic mechanism and associated factors of human brucellosis so as to provide thoughts for future countermeasures in China and the rest of the world. Methods: Data of human brucellosis incidence and some associated factors in economy, animal husbandry, transportation as well as health and hygiene were collected at provincial level from 2005–2016. Time series plots were first used to visualize the annual incidence and annual rate of change of human brucellosis for each province, then cluster analysis categorized all the 31 provinces of mainland China based on their incidence time series during the study period. In addition, according to the characteristics of data, the dynamic panel data model in combination with supervised principal component analysis was proposed to explore effects of associated factors on human brucellosis. Results: 1. The incidence rate of human brucellosis in mainland China increased three-fold from 1.41 per 100,000 people in 2005 to 4.22 per 100,000 people in 2014, though it went down a little in 2015 and 2016. Incidence rates in the north have always been higher than those in the south, but the latter also experienced an upward trend especially between 2012 and 2016. 2. The 31 provinces of mainland China were categorized into three clusters, and each cluster had its own characteristics of incidence time series. 3. The impact of health and hygiene situations on the prevention and control work of human brucellosis was still very limited and trivial (regression coefficient = -0.02). Therefore, it was plausible to presume that improving the personal average number of medical institutes and the proportion of rural medical expenditure might be helpful in preventing and controlling human brucellosis. Conclusions: The epidemic status of human brucellosis has changed in both spatial and temporal dimensions in recent years in mainland China. Apart from traditional control measures, more attention should be paid to the improvement of medical healthcare especially in rural areas in the hope of enhancing the control effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The green mirid bug Apolygus lucorum is a regional pest of multiple crops in northern China, and the survival and development of diapausing eggs during winter plays an important role in the population dynamics of this species. The effect of water on the survival and development of A. lucorum eggs was investigated using laboratory-induced diapause. Diapausing eggs were exposed to various humidity regimes under three conditions: (1) termination of diapause with exposure to warm long-day (WLD) conditions (i.e., 26 ± 1°C and 75 ± 5% relative humidity (RH) under a photoperiod of 16 hours light and 8 hours dark), (2) termination of diapause by chilling at 4°C, or (3) during the post-diapause stage, i.e., from transfer to WLD conditions after chilling, until the hatching of nymphs. The results indicate that water availability is crucial for the post-diapause resumption of development of A. lucorum. However, exposure to excessive moisture was detrimental, as indicated by a decrease in diapause termination rate and a prolonged pre-hatching period of diapausing eggs, compared to limited moisture conditions. This implies that both too dry and too humid environmental conditions would suppress survival and postpone hatching of overwintered A. lucorum eggs, and might explain why this pest has not caused severe damage in either southern or western China where the respective climates are very humid or dry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In an effort to trace the evolution of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV), S1 and ORF3 genes of viruses identified in 41 pig farms from seven regions (North, Northeast, Northwest, Central, East, South West, and South, respectively) of China in 2015 were sequenced and analyzed. Sequence analysis revealed that the 41 ORF3 genes and 29 S1 genes identified in our study exhibited nucleotide homologies of 98.2%–100% and 96.6%–100%, respectively; these two genes exhibited low nucleotide sequence similarities with classical CV777 strain and early Chinese strain LZC. Phylogenetic analysis indicated that the identified PEDV strains belonged to global non S-INDEL strains, and exhibited genetic diversity; S1 gene of the HLJ2015/DP1-1 strain harbored an unique deletion of 12 nucleotides (A1130CAACTCCACTG1141); while the Chinese PEDV S-INDEL reference strains included two types of the “CV777” S-INDEL as well as the “US” S-INDEL, and all co-circulated with Chinese non S-INDEL strains. Of 29 identified S1 genes, the SS2 epitope (Y748SNIGVCK755) was highly conserved, while the SS6 epitope (L764QDGQVKI771) and pAPN receptor-binding region (aa 490–615) exhibited amino substitutions. Nine possible recombination events were identified between the 29 identifed S1 genes and the 3 S1 reference genes from early Chinese PEDV strains. The complete S genes of selected Chinese PEDV field strains (2011–2015) showed 5.18%–6.07% nucleotide divergence, which is far higher than the divergence observed in early Chinese PEDV strains (3.1%) (P<0.05). Our data provide evidence that PEDV non S-INDEL strains with genetic diversities and potential recombination circulate in seven regions of China in 2015; Chinese PEDV S-INDEL strains exhibit genetic diversity and co-circulate with non S-INDEL strains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: This study was to observe the non-heme iron absorption and biological utilization from typical whole Chinese diets in young Chinese healthy urban men, and to observe if the iron absorption and utilization could be affected by the staple food patterns of Southern and Northern China. Materials and Methods: Twenty-two young urban men aged 18–24 years were recruited and randomly assigned to two groups in which the staple food was rice and steamed buns, respectively. Each subject received 3 meals containing approximately 3.25 mg stable 57FeSO4 (the ratio of 57Fe content in breakfast, lunch and dinner was 1:2:2) daily for 2 consecutive days. In addition, approximately 2.4 mg 58FeSO4 was administered intravenously to each subject at 30–60 min after dinner each day. Blood samples were collected from each subject to measure the enrichment of the 57Fe and 58Fe. Fourteen days after the experimental diet, non-heme iron absorption was assessed by measuring 57Fe incorporation into red blood cells, and absorbed iron utilization was determined according to the red blood cell incorporation of intravenously infused 58Fe SO4. Results: Non-heme iron intake values overall, and in the rice and steamed buns groups were 12.8 ±2.1, 11.3±1.3 and 14.3±1.5 mg, respectively; the mean 57Fe absorption rates were 11±7%, 13±7%, and 8±4%, respectively; and the mean infused 58Fe utilization rates were 85±8%, 84±6%, and 85±10%, respectively. There was no significantly difference in the iron intakes, and 57Fe absorption and infused 58Fe utilization rates between rice and steamed buns groups (all P>0.05). Conclusion: We present the non-heme iron absorption and utilization rates from typical whole Chinese diets among young Chinese healthy urban men, which was not affected by the representative staple food patterns of Southern and Northern China. This study will provide a basis for the setting of Chinese iron DRIs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atypical enteropathogenic Escherichia coli (aEPEC) is considered to be an emerging enteropathogen that is more prevalent than typical EPEC in developing and developed countries. The major adherence factor, intimin, an outer membrane protein encoded by eae, plays a pivotal role in the pathogenesis of aEPEC. This study investigated the distribution and polymorphisms of intimin subtypes of 143 aEPEC strains from diarrheal patients, healthy carriers, animals, and raw meats in China. These aEPEC strains belonged to more than 71 different serotypes, which comprised 52 O serogroups and 24 H types. Sixty-eight different eae genotypes and 19 intimin subtypes were detected. Eighteen, eight, seven, and five intimin subtypes were identified from 86 diarrheal patients, 14 healthy carriers, 19 animals, and 24 raw meats strains, respectively. Intimin β1 was the most prevalent subtype in strains from diarrheal patients (34.88%) and animals (47.37%). There was a statistically significant difference in the distribution of eae-β1 between diarrheal patients and healthy carriers (P = 0.004). Intimin-θ was more predominant among raw meat strains (50%) than among diarrheal patients strains (12.79%, P = 0.0003), healthy carrier strains (7.14%, P = 0.007), or animal strains (15.79%, P = 0.020). The two predominant subtypes (eae-β1 and eae-θ) had considerable polymorphisms with no significant differences among the four sources. PFGE analysis revealed 119 distinct patterns and the strains were clustered into 11 groups with similarity indices ranging from 63% to 100%. These results suggest that in China, aEPEC strains from different sources are highly heterogeneous. Animals and raw meats are important sources of genetically diverse intimin-harboring aEPEC, which might serve as important transmission vehicles of these bacteria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]