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In this paper, we aim to establish a mathematical model to design a maximizing social welfare intervention mechanism of healthcare service goods in China. The intervention mechanism is helpful to facilitate the adoption of the healthcare service goods. We consider a research problem that regulates the supply chain system for healthcare service goods by an intervention mechanism, and two intervention strategies composed of demand-growth strategy and subsidy strategy are used to the combination of intervention mechanism. Then this paper presents a new method based on fuzzy set and bilevel programming to design the intervention mechanism. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model, we conduct a case study for Wudang personalized health package and verify our model by the specific result analysis, the result indicates that our joint intervention mechanism is helpful to achieve the target and increase social welfare. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Following the emergence of H7N9 influenza in March 2013, local animal and public health authorities in China have been closing live bird markets as a measure to try to control the H7N9 influenza epidemic. The role of live bird market (LBM) closure on the spread of N7N9 influenza following the closure of LBMs during March to May 2013 (the first wave) and October 2013 to March 2014 (the second wave) is described in this paper. Different provinces implemented closure actions at different times, and intensive media reports on H7N9 in different provinces started at different times. Local broiler prices dropped dramatically in places with outbreaks and more live chickens were transported to other LBMs in neighboring areas without human cases from infected areas when live bird markets were being closed. There were six clusters of human infection from March to May 2013 and October 2013 to March 2014 and there may have been intensive poultry transportation among cluster areas. These findings provide evidence that the closure of LBMs in early waves of H7N9 influenza had resulted in expansion of H7N9 infection to uninfected areas. This suggests that provincial authorities in inland provinces should be alert to the risks of sudden changes in movement patterns for live birds after LBM closure or increased publicity about LBM closure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Severe outbreaks of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) have occurred in China for decades. Our understanding of the HFMD transmission process and its determinants is still limited. In this paper, factors that affect the local variation of HFMD transmission process were studied. Three classes of factors, including meteorological, demographic and public health intervention factors, were carefully selected and their effects on HFMD transmission were investigated with Pearson’s correlation coefficient and multiple linear regression models. The determining factors for the variation of HFMD transmission were different for the southeastern and the northwestern regions of China. In the northwest, fadeouts occurred yearly, and the average age at infection and the fadeout were negatively correlated with the population density. In the southeast, HFMD transmission was governed by the combined effects of the birth rate, the relative humidity and the interaction of the Health System Performance and the log of the population density. When the Health System Performance was low, HFMD transmission increased with the population density, but when the Health System Performance was high, the better health performance counteracted the transmission increase due to the higher population density. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: AIDS is a worrying public health issue in China and lacks timely and effective surveillance. With the diffusion and adoption of the Internet, the ‘big data’ aggregated from Internet search engines, which contain users’ information on the concern or reality of their health status, provide a new opportunity for AIDS surveillance. This paper uses search engine data to monitor and forecast AIDS in China. Methods: A machine learning method, artificial neural networks (ANNs), is used to forecast AIDS incidences and deaths. Search trend data related to AIDS from the largest Chinese search engine, Baidu.com, are collected and selected as the input variables of ANNs, and officially reported actual AIDS incidences and deaths are used as the output variable. Three criteria, the mean absolute percentage error, the root mean squared percentage error, and the index of agreement, are used to test the forecasting performance of the ANN method. Results: Based on the monthly time series data from January 2011 to June 2017, this article finds that, under the three criteria, the ANN method can lead to satisfactory forecasting of AIDS incidences and deaths, regardless of the change in the number of search queries. Conclusions: Despite the inability to self-detect HIV/AIDS through online searching, Internet-based data should be adopted as a timely, cost-effective complement to a traditional AIDS surveillance system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We undertook a systematic review of the diagnostic accuracy of artificial intelligence-based software for identification of radiologic abnormalities (computer-aided detection, or CAD) compatible with pulmonary tuberculosis on chest x-rays (CXRs). We searched four databases for articles published between January 2005-February 2019. We summarized data on CAD type, study design, and diagnostic accuracy. We assessed risk of bias with QUADAS-2. We included 53 of the 4712 articles reviewed: 40 focused on CAD design methods (“Development” studies) and 13 focused on evaluation of CAD (“Clinical” studies). Meta-analyses were not performed due to methodological differences. Development studies were more likely to use CXR databases with greater potential for bias as compared to Clinical studies. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (median AUC [IQR]) were significantly higher: in Development studies AUC: 0.88 [0.82–0.90]) versus Clinical studies (0.75 [0.66–0.87]; p-value 0.004); and with deep-learning (0.91 [0.88–0.99]) versus machine-learning (0.82 [0.75–0.89]; p = 0.001). We conclude that CAD programs are promising, but the majority of work thus far has been on development rather than clinical evaluation. We provide concrete suggestions on what study design elements should be improved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prior to the introduction of wheat and barley from Central Asia during the Neolithic period, northern Chinese agricultural groups subsisted heavily on millet. Despite being the focus of many decades of intensive interest and research, the exact route(s), date(s), and mechanisms of the spread and adoption of wheat and barley into the existing well-established millet-based diet in northern China are still debated. As the majority of the important introduced crops are C3 plants, while the indigenous millet is C4, archaeologists can effectively identify the consumption of any introduced crops using stable carbon isotope analysis. Here we examine published stable isotope and dental caries data of human skeletal remains from 77 archaeological sites across northern and northwestern China. These sites date between 9000 to 1750 BP, encompassing the period from the beginning of agriculture to wheat’s emergence as a staple crop in northern China. The aim of this study is to evaluate the implications of the spread and adoption of these crops in ancient China. Detailed analysis of human bone collagen δ13C values reveals an almost concurrent shift from a C4-based to a mixed C3/ C4– based subsistence economy across all regions at around 4500–4000 BP. This coincided with a global climatic event, Holocene Event 3 at 4200 BP, suggesting that the sudden change in subsistence economy across northern and northwestern China was likely related to climate change. Moreover, the substantially increased prevalence of dental caries from pre–to post–4000 BP indicates an increase in the consumption of cariogenic cereals during the later period. The results from this study have significant implications for understanding how the adoption of a staple crop can be indicative of large-scale environmental and socio-political changes in a region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Many studies focused on reasons behind the increasing incidence and the spread of human brucellosis in mainland China, yet most of them lacked comprehensive consideration with quantitative evidence. Hence, this study aimed to further investigate the epidemic mechanism and associated factors of human brucellosis so as to provide thoughts for future countermeasures in China and the rest of the world. Methods: Data of human brucellosis incidence and some associated factors in economy, animal husbandry, transportation as well as health and hygiene were collected at provincial level from 2005–2016. Time series plots were first used to visualize the annual incidence and annual rate of change of human brucellosis for each province, then cluster analysis categorized all the 31 provinces of mainland China based on their incidence time series during the study period. In addition, according to the characteristics of data, the dynamic panel data model in combination with supervised principal component analysis was proposed to explore effects of associated factors on human brucellosis. Results: 1. The incidence rate of human brucellosis in mainland China increased three-fold from 1.41 per 100,000 people in 2005 to 4.22 per 100,000 people in 2014, though it went down a little in 2015 and 2016. Incidence rates in the north have always been higher than those in the south, but the latter also experienced an upward trend especially between 2012 and 2016. 2. The 31 provinces of mainland China were categorized into three clusters, and each cluster had its own characteristics of incidence time series. 3. The impact of health and hygiene situations on the prevention and control work of human brucellosis was still very limited and trivial (regression coefficient = -0.02). Therefore, it was plausible to presume that improving the personal average number of medical institutes and the proportion of rural medical expenditure might be helpful in preventing and controlling human brucellosis. Conclusions: The epidemic status of human brucellosis has changed in both spatial and temporal dimensions in recent years in mainland China. Apart from traditional control measures, more attention should be paid to the improvement of medical healthcare especially in rural areas in the hope of enhancing the control effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is well recognized as one of the major threats to children's health globally. The increasing complexity of the etiology of HFMD still challenges disease control in China. There is little surveillance of the molecular epidemiological characteristics of the enteroviruses (EVs) that cause HFMD in Neijiang city or the Sichuan Basin area in Southwest China. In this study, demographic and epidemiological information for 14,928 probable HFMD cases was extracted and analyzed to describe the epidemic features of HFMD in Neijiang city from Jan 2010 to Dec 2017. The swab samples of select probable HFMD cases from 2012 to 2017 were tested by reverse transcription (RT) real-time PCR to identify the serotype distribution of EVs, and 110 randomly selected RT-real-time PCR positive samples were then amplified and analyzed for the VP1 or VP4 regions of EVs to further analyze the phylogenetic characteristics of the circulating strains in this area. The eight-year average annual incidence was 49.82 per 100,000 in Neijiang. The incidence rates varied between 19.51 and 70.73 per 100,000, demonstrating peaks of incidence in even-number years (2012, 2014 and 2016). The median age of the probable cases was 27 months and the interquartile range (25th to 75th percentile) of ages for the probable HFMD cases was between 14 and 42 months. The male-to-female ratio of the probable HFMD cases was 1.47:1, and scattered children were the major population classification (81.7%). Two epidemic peaks were observed: one major peak between April and July and the other lesser peak between October and December. Of 6513 probable cases tested with RT-real-time PCR, 4015 (61.6%) were positive for enterovirus with the serotype distribution as follows: EV71+, 30.1% (n = 1210); CV-A16+, 28.7% (n = 1154) and a sole pan-enterovirus+, 41.1% (n = 1651). A total of 91 cases (82.7%, 91/110) were successfully amplified and underwent phylogenetic analysis: all EV71+ cases were C4a serotype (n = 23/30); all CV-A16+ cases were B2b serotype (n = 24/30); of 42 sole pan-enterovirus+ samples, 20 were CV-A6, 14 were CV-A10 and the rest within this group were CV-A4 (n = 4), CV-A8 (n = 2), CV-A9 (n = 1) and CV-B3 (n = 1). Our findings provide important evidence that aids the improvement of strategies for vaccination against HFMD and comprehensive disease control in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Nation-wide hepatitis B vaccination coverage among healthcare workers (HCWs) is not well researched in China. This study aims to investigate the self-reported hepatitis B vaccination status among HCWs in China. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional survey of health_care workers’ vaccination statuses in 120 hospitals in China by collecting demographic and vaccination data. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to assess factors associated with hepatitis B vaccination coverage. Results: Eighty-six percent (2,666/3,104) of respondents reported having received at least one dose of the hepatitis B vaccination and 60% (1,853/3,104) reported having completed ≥3 doses of the hepatitis B vaccination. Factors associated with completing ≥3 doses of the hepatitis B vaccination included workplaces offering free hepatitis B vaccination with vaccination management, age, medical occupation, hospital level, acceptable hepatitis B knowledge and having received training on hepatitis B. HCWs in workplaces offering a free hepatitis B vaccine with vaccination management were 1.4 times more likely (OR = 1.4, 95% CI: 1.1–1.8) to complete their hepatitis B vaccination compared to HCWs in workplaces that did not offer a free hepatitis B vaccine. Either the possession of acceptable hepatitis B knowledge or an age of 30–39 years increased the odds of complete hepatitis B vaccination by 1.3-fold (95% CIs: 1.1–1.5 and 1.1–1.7, respectively) over their referent category. The receipt of training on hepatitis B was also associated with a higher percentage of completing the hepatitis B vaccination (OR = 1.5, 95% CI: 1.2–1.8). The main self-reported reason for incomplete hepatitis B vaccination was “forgot to complete follow-up doses” among 43% (234/547) of respondents. Among those who never received any hepatitis B vaccination, only 30% (131/438) intended to be vaccinated. Obtaining immunity from work (40%) and hospitals that did not provide hepatitis B vaccination activities (40%) were the top reasons mentioned for refusing hepatitis B vaccination. Conclusions: The complete hepatitis B vaccination rate among HCWs in China is low, and the desire of HCWs for vaccination is indifferent; therefore, education campaigns are needed. In addition, a free national hepatitis B vaccination policy for HCWs that includes vaccination management should be prioritized to improve hepatitis B coverage among HCWs who are at-risk for HBV infection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: China has a substantial tuberculosis (TB) disease burden and an aging population. Seniors have a higher risk of developing TB disease compared to younger age groups. Active case finding (ACF) could help identify seniors with TB disease. Methods: From March to June 2017, we included ACF during annual physical check-ups for persons aged ≥ 65 years in Bayi, Sichuan Province. Seniors with clinical TB symptoms (i.e., cough lasting ≥ 2 weeks and/or hemoptysis) or one or more risk factors (e.g., previous TB disease, diabetes, and heavy alcohol consumption) were offered chest x-rays. We used acid-Fast Bacilli smear and solid culture laboratory testing for TB confirmation. We calculated the yield (i.e., cases identified among seniors screened) and cost per new each TB case detected. Focus group-interviews were conducted with health care workers and seniors to evaluate project acceptability. Participation rates and acceptability were used to assess feasibility. Results: Of the 2,393 seniors residing in Bayi, 2,049 (85.6%) were enrolled in the pilot project. Of these seniors, 794 (38.7%) presented with at least one TB risk factor and 74 (3.6%) had symptoms consistent with active TB disease. Three seniors (0.2%)–each presenting with at least one risk factor—were diagnosed with active TB. The project yielded 146 TB cases per 100,000 seniors screened; the cost per case detected was $4,897. Most workers supported ACF if additional resources and staff could be provided. Seniors appreciated the convenience of this integrated health service approach. Conclusions: Although the yield was lower than expected, ACF appeared feasible in Bayi. Targeting seniors with at least one known TB risk factor could help detect previously unidentified TB cases. However, similar projects in communities with a higher TB prevalence are needed to further evaluate the yield and required resources prior to implementation on a larger scale. Findings from our pilot project should be combined with data from these future ACF projects to improve TB screening criteria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In China, internal migrants constitute one-fifth of tuberculosis (TB) patients registered for treatment in web-based TB information management system (TBIMS). Though China added a specific module in the web-based TBIMS in 2009, web-based transfer-out is not specifically recommended in the national guidelines. Objective: In this country wide study among all registered migrant TB patients (2014–2015) that were transferred out using web-based TBIMS in China, to determine the i) timing of transfer-out in relation to period of treatment; ii) delay and attrition during transfer interval (between transfer-out and transfer-in); and iii) extent and risk factors for ‘not evaluated’ as the treatment outcome. Methods: This was a cohort study involving review of web-based TBIMS data. Modified Poisson regression was used to build a predictive model for risk factors of ‘not evaluated’ as the treatment outcome. Results: Among 7 284 patients, 5 900 (81.0%) were transferred out during the first two months after initiation of treatment or before treatment initiation and 7 088 (97.3%) patients had arrived at transfer-in unit. The median transfer interval was three (interquartile range: 0–14) days. Sixteen percent (1 176/7 284) patients had ‘not evaluated’ as their treatment outcome. ‘Not evaluated’ contributed to 66% of the unfavourable outcomes. Patients transferred from referral hospitals, migrated from out of prefecture, transferred out of prefecture, with sputum smear negative pulmonary TB, with TB pleurisy and with long delay between symptom onset and treatment initiation had significantly higher risk of ‘not evaluated’ as the outcome. Conclusion: Web-based transfer helped as the delay and attrition during the transfer interval was quite short and treatment outcomes of more than four-fifths of transferred out migrant TB patients were available with transfer-out BMU. Once strategies to address the independent predictors of ‘not evaluated’ treatment outcome are devised, China may consider mandatory use of web-based TBIMS for transferring out migrant TB patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Clinical pharmacy is not only a medical science but also an elaborate public health care system firmly related to its subsystems of education, training, qualification authentication, scientific research, management, and human resources. China is a developing country with a tremendous need for improvements in the public health system, including the clinical pharmacy service system. Objectives: The aim of this research was to evaluate the infrastructure and personnel qualities of clinical pharmacy services in China. Setting: Public county hospitals in China. Materials and method: A national survey of clinical pharmacists in county hospitals was conducted. It was sampled through a stratified sampling strategy. Responses were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics. The main outcome measures include the coverage of clinical pharmacy services, the overall staffing of clinical pharmacists, the software and hardware of clinical pharmacy services, the charge mode of clinical pharmacy services, and the educational background, professional training acquisition, practical experience, and entry path of clinical pharmacists. Results: The overall coverage of clinical pharmacy services on both the department scale (median = 18.25%) and the patient scale (median = 15.38%) does not meet the 100% coverage that is required by the government. In 57.73% of the sample hospitals, the staffing does not meet the requirement, and the size of the clinical pharmacist group is smaller in larger hospitals. In addition, 23.4% of the sample hospitals do not have management rules for the clinical pharmacists, and 43.1% do not have rational drug use software, both of which are required by the government. In terms of fees, 89.9% of the sample hospitals do not charge for the services. With regard to education, 8.5% of respondents are with unqualified degree, and among respondents with qualified degree, 37.31% are unqualified in the major; 43% of respondents lack the clinical pharmacist training required by the government. Most respondents (93.5%) have a primary or medium professional title. The median age and work seniority of respondents are 31 and four years, respectively. Only 18.5% of respondents chose this occupation by personal consideration or willingness. Conclusions: The main findings in this research include the overall low coverage of clinical pharmacy services, the low rate of clinical pharmacy service software, hardware, and personnel as well as a wide variance in educational training of pharmacists at county hospitals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: China has high burden on both of tuberculosis (TB) and tobacco use. This study aims to explore the potential link between smoking and TB infection using baseline survey data of a large-scale population-based prospective study in rural China Methods: Between July 1 and Sept 30, 2013, based on the baseline survey of a population-based, prospective study in rural China, the relationship between smoking and TB infection, assessed by interferon-gamma release assays (IGRA), was investigated among the total study population and only among those smokers, respectively. Results: A total of 21,008 eligible rural registered residents (≥ 5 years old) from 4 rural sites were included in the analysis. Ever-smokers were more likely to be QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-Tube (QFT) positive than never smokers with an adjusted odds ratio (OR) of 1.34 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.21–1.49). Among ever smokers, a significant linear dose–response relation was observed between duration of smoking (by years) and QFT positivity (p < 0.001). Stratified analysis suggested that such an association was not influenced by gender and age. Evidence for interaction of smoking status with age was found. Conclusions: Our results provide further evidence to support smoking might increase host susceptibility to TB infection. Populations under high risk of infection, such as elderly smokers, should be prior to TB infection controlling under a premise of community level intervention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Zoonotic avian influenza poses a major risk to China, and other parts of the world. H5N1 has remained endemic in China and globally for nearly two decades, and in 2013, a novel zoonotic influenza A subtype H7N9 emerged in China. This study aimed to improve upon our current understanding of the spreading mechanisms of H7N9 and H5N1 by generating spatial risk profiles for each of the two virus subtypes across mainland China. Methods and findings: In this study, we (i) developed a refined data set of H5N1 and H7N9 locations with consideration of animal/animal environment case data, as well as spatial accuracy and precision; (ii) used this data set along with environmental variables to build species distribution models (SDMs) for each virus subtype in high resolution spatial units of 1km2 cells using Maxent; (iii) developed a risk modelling framework which integrated the results from the SDMs with human and chicken population variables, which was done to quantify the risk of zoonotic transmission; and (iv) identified areas at high risk of H5N1 and H7N9 transmission. We produced high performing SDMs (6 of 8 models with AUC > 0.9) for both H5N1 and H7N9. In all our SDMs, H7N9 consistently showed higher AUC results compared to H5N1, suggesting H7N9 suitability could be better explained by environmental variables. For both subtypes, high risk areas were primarily located in south-eastern China, with H5N1 distributions found to be more diffuse and extending more inland compared to H7N9. Conclusions: We provide projections of our risk models to public health policy makers so that specific high risk areas can be targeted for control measures. We recommend comparing H5N1 and H7N9 prevalence rates and survivability in the natural environment to better understand the role of animal and environmental transmission in human infections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We describe the population structure of a representative collection of 3,133 Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates, collected within the framework of a national resistance survey from 2007 in China. Genotyping data indicate that the epidemic strains in China can be divided into seven major complexes, of which 92% belonged to the East Asian (mainly Beijing strains) or the Euro-American lineage. The epidemic Beijing strains in China are closely related to the Beijing B0/W148 strain earlier described in Russia and a large cluster of these strains has spread national wide. The density of Beijing strains is high in the whole of China (average 70%), but the highest prevalence was found North of the Yellow river. The Euro-American lineage consists of three sublineages (sublineage_1, 2, and 3) and is more prevalent in the South. Beijing lineage showed the highest cluster rate of 48% and a significantly higher level of resistance to rifampicin (14%, p<0.001), ethambutol (9%, p = 0.001), and ofloxacin (5%, p = 0.011). Within the Euro-American Lineage, sublineage_3 revealed the highest cluster rate (28%) and presented a significantly elevated level of resistance to streptomycin (44%, p<0.001). Our findings suggest that standardised treatment in this region may have contributed to the successful spread of certain strains: sublineage_3 in the Euro-American lineage may have thrived when streptomycin was used without rifampicin for treatment, while later under DOTS based treatment, in which rifampicin plays a key role, Beijing lineage appears to be spreading. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: To examine trends in HIV testing, late HIV diagnosis and associated factors among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Jiangsu province, China. Methods: Four consecutive community-based cross-sectional surveys were conducted among MSM from 2011 to 2014 in eight cities in the province. Participants were recruited from MSM venues and via the internet. HIV bio-behavioral surveys were conducted to collect demographic and behavioral data and measure HIV infection. HIV-infected participants with CD4 counts less than 350 cells/uL were defined as having a late HIV diagnosis. Chi-square trend tests were used to compare temporal changes over the years and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to identify factors associated with late diagnosis. Results: A total of 2,441, 2,677, 2,591 and 2,610 participants were enrolled in 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014, respectively. Testing for HIV in the last 12 months decreased over the time period, from 59.9% to 52.5% (p<0.001). Late HIV diagnosis remained high and steady, ranging from 33.3% to 44.2% over the years with no significant change over time (p = 0.418). MSM who were older than 24 years (aOR = 1.748, p = 0.020 for 25–39 years old; aOR = 3.148, p<0.001 for 40 years old or older), were recruited via internet (aOR = 1.596, p = 0.024), and did not have an HIV test in the past 12 months (aOR = 3.385, p<0.001) were more likely to be late diagnosed. Conclusions: Our study showed a plateau in HIV testing among MSM in China, in parallel to high levels of late diagnosis. Emerging and innovative strategies such as HIV self-testing and reaching more MSM by internet, both highly acceptable to MSM in China, may reduce late diagnosis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Exact prediction of Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) epidemics must improve to establish effective preventive measures in China. A Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model was applied to establish a highly predictive model of HFRS. Meteorological factors were considered external variables through a cross correlation analysis. Then, these factors were included in the SARIMA model to determine if they could improve the predictive ability of HFRS epidemics in the region. The optimal univariate SARIMA model was identified as (0,0,2)(1,1,1)12. The R2 of the prediction of HFRS cases from January 2014 to December 2014 was 0.857, and the Root mean square error (RMSE) was 2.708. However, the inclusion of meteorological variables as external regressors did not significantly improve the SARIMA model. This result is likely because seasonal variations in meteorological variables were included in the seasonal characteristics of the HFRS itself. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Hepatitis E virus is one of new threats to blood safety which was usually considered to be transmitted via fecal-oral route. China is one of the hyperendemic regions where frequent outbreaks of hepatitis E are noted. However, the overall prevalence of HEV infection among mainland Chinese blood donors is not clear until now. Method: The peer-reviewed literatures reporting the prevalence of HEV in Chinese blood donors were identified by systematic searching of five electronic databases. The systematic review and meta-analysis were conducted in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses statement issued in 2009. Data manipulation and statistical analyses were performed by Stata 12.0. Results: Fourteen eligible articles involving 22 independent studies were included. Pooled prevalence of HEV infection biomarkers (anti-HEV IgG, anti-HEV IgM, RNA and antigen) among mainland Chinese blood donors were 29.2%, 1.1%, 0.1% and 0.1%, respectively which were higher than the data reported in other countries. The analysis of HEV genotypes indicated that the most prevalent strains in Chinese blood donors were genotype 1 and 4. Conclusions: Mainland China is indicated with a relatively higher risk of transmission of hepatitis E through transfusion and the screening of blood donors for HEV RNA, especially in HEV-endemic areas, might reduce the potential risk of HEV infection via transfusion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Azithromycin is used as an alternative medicine in patients with syphilis who are intolerant to penicillin. Nevertheless, the report of treatment failure of azithromycin for patients with syphilis has raised concerns in China in the past years. In this study, 178 patients with early syphilis, who were treated in sexually transmitted infections clinics in four cities in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region were enrolled to investigate the regional prevalence of Treponema pallidum strain resistant to azithromycin. Nested PCR was performed to amplify the 23S ribosomal RNA (23SrRNA) gene. The point mutation of A2058G in 23SrRNA, which confers Treponema pallidum resistance to azithromycin, was measured by endonuclease digestion of PCR amplification products using MboII. A2058G point mutation was detected in 91.0% (162/178; 95% CI, 86.8%, 95.2%) of the specimens, but no difference in prevalence of azithromycin resistance was found between the patients who had taken antibiotics before enrollment and the patients who had not (91.8% vs. 89.4%), nor between the patients with and without past sexually transmitted infections (87.1% vs. 93.1%). We concluded that azithromycin may not be suitable for syphilis as a treatment option in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region because of the extremely high prevalence of resistance in the general syphilis population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Syphilis is prevalent among men who have sex with men (MSM) in China. Syphilis partner notification (PN) programs targeting MSM has been considered as one of effective strategies to prevention and control of the infection in the population. We examined willingness and preferences for PN among MSM to measure feasibility and optimize uptake. Methods: Participation in a syphilis PN program was measured using a factorial survey from both the perspective of the index patient and the partner. Respondents were recruited from April-July 2011 using convenience sampling at two sites—a MSM sexually transmitted disease (STD) clinic and a MSM community based organization (CBO). Respondents first evaluated three factorial survey vignettes to measure probability of participation and then an anonymous sociodemographic questionnaire. A two-level mixed linear model was fitted for the factorial survey analysis. Results: In 372 respondents with mean age (± SD) 28.5 (± 6.0) years, most were single (82.0%) and closeted gays (66.7%). The Internet was the most frequent place to search for sex. Few (31.2%) had legal names for casual partners, but most had instant messenger (86.5%) and mobile phone numbers (77.7%). The mean probability of participation in a syphilis PN program was 64.5% (± 32.4%) for index patients and 63.7% (± 32.6%) for partners. Referral of the partner to a private clinic or MSM CBO for follow-up decreased participation compared to the local Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) or public STD clinic. Conclusions: Enhanced PN services may be feasible among MSM in South China. Internet and mobile phone PN may contact partners untraceable by traditional PN. Referral of partners to the local CDC or public STD clinic may maximize PN participation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Hepatitis is a serious public health problem with increasing cases and property damage in Heng County. It is necessary to develop a model to predict the hepatitis epidemic that could be useful for preventing this disease. Methods: The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and the generalized regression neural network (GRNN) model were used to fit the incidence data from the Heng County CDC (Center for Disease Control and Prevention) from January 2005 to December 2012. Then, the ARIMA-GRNN hybrid model was developed. The incidence data from January 2013 to December 2013 were used to validate the models. Several parameters, including mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and mean square error (MSE), were used to compare the performance among the three models. Results: The morbidity of hepatitis from Jan 2005 to Dec 2012 has seasonal variation and slightly rising trend. The ARIMA(0,1,2)(1,1,1)12 model was the most appropriate one with the residual test showing a white noise sequence. The smoothing factor of the basic GRNN model and the combined model was 1.8 and 0.07, respectively. The four parameters of the hybrid model were lower than those of the two single models in the validation. The parameters values of the GRNN model were the lowest in the fitting of the three models. Conclusions: The hybrid ARIMA-GRNN model showed better hepatitis incidence forecasting in Heng County than the single ARIMA model and the basic GRNN model. It is a potential decision-supportive tool for controlling hepatitis in Heng County. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Panton-Valentine leukocidin (PVL) genes of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) have previously been associated with severe infections. Here, the impact of the PVL genes on severity of disease and clinical outcome of patients with hospital-acquired pneumonia (HAP) or ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) due to MRSA was investigated in a single center observational study in a hospital in China. HAP due to MRSA was diagnosed in 100 patients and 13 of the patients were PVL positive, while VAP was diagnosed in 5 patients and 2 were PVL positive. The PVL positive patient group showed a significantly higher Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score (14.3 ±7.8 vs. 10.1 ±4.7, P = 0.005) and significantly more patients with CRP levels >80 mg/L (8/15 vs. 12/90, P = 0.006) or WBC counts >15x109/L (7/15 vs. 12/90, P = 0.006), indicating that the severity of disease is affected by the presence of the PVL genes. The outcome of the study was defined by 30-day mortality. Four (27%) of the PVL positive patients and four (4%) of the PVL negative patients died within 30 days (P = 0.01, Fisher exact test). Kaplan-Meier survival curves were generated for the PVL positive and PVL negative patient groups, which differed significantly (P = 0.003). Among the patients that died, the mean interval between diagnosis and death was shorter for the PVL positive patients (9.3 ±5.6 vs. 40.8 ±6.6 days, P = 0.013). Further analysis within the HAP and VAP patient groups showed that the presence of PVL in MRSA impacted the severity of disease and clinical outcome of HAP, but for VAP the number of patients included in the study was too low. In conclusion, in this single center study in a Chinese hospital the presence of the PVL genes in MRSA impacted the severity of disease and clinical outcome in patients with HAP due to MRSA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The resurgence of pertussis has occurred in many countries. However, the epidemiological profiles of pertussis cannot be well understood by the current surveillance system in China. This study was designed to investigate the age specific serologic evidence of antibodies against pertussis, and to offer information regarding the existence of pertussis infection in Zhejiang Province, China. Methods: A cross-sectional serosurvey was carried out in 6 counties of Zhejiang Province during September and October of 2014. The immunoglobulin G-pertussis toxin (IgG-PT) levels were measured quantitatively with a commercially available enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). The antibody activities were expressed in the Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-U/ml and a level ≥30 FDA-U/ml was considered seropositive. An IgG-PT >80 FDA-U/ml indicated recent pertussis infection if the patient had not received immunization with the pertussis vaccine within the last year. Results: The mean IgG-PT seropositivity rate among the 2107 subjects was 33.32% with a geometric mean concentration of 17.73 (95% confidence interval: 16.90–18.60) FDA-U/ml. The difference in the seropositivity rates reached significant means among the different age groups (waldχ2 = 198.41, P<0.0005), and children aged 3 years had the highest percentage (63.24%) of undetectable IgG-PT level. Of the 1707 subjects ≥3 years of age, 169 (9.90%) had evidence of a recent infection. The highest proportion of IgG-PT levels ≥80 FDA-U/ml was found in ≥60 years age group followed by 11–15 and 16–25 years age groups. Conclusions: This study indicates the rather lower IgG-PT level sustained 1 year after the acellular pertussis vaccine booster dose, and substantial proportion of population susceptibility to pertussis in Zhejiang Province, China. Moreover, pertussis infection is not uncommon; it was estimated that 10% of subjects were recently infected approximately within the last 100 days. We highly suggest that the surveillance capacity should be strengthened and consider introducing booster dose that protect against pertussis in 6 years old children. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atypical enteropathogenic Escherichia coli (aEPEC) is considered to be an emerging enteropathogen that is more prevalent than typical EPEC in developing and developed countries. The major adherence factor, intimin, an outer membrane protein encoded by eae, plays a pivotal role in the pathogenesis of aEPEC. This study investigated the distribution and polymorphisms of intimin subtypes of 143 aEPEC strains from diarrheal patients, healthy carriers, animals, and raw meats in China. These aEPEC strains belonged to more than 71 different serotypes, which comprised 52 O serogroups and 24 H types. Sixty-eight different eae genotypes and 19 intimin subtypes were detected. Eighteen, eight, seven, and five intimin subtypes were identified from 86 diarrheal patients, 14 healthy carriers, 19 animals, and 24 raw meats strains, respectively. Intimin β1 was the most prevalent subtype in strains from diarrheal patients (34.88%) and animals (47.37%). There was a statistically significant difference in the distribution of eae-β1 between diarrheal patients and healthy carriers (P = 0.004). Intimin-θ was more predominant among raw meat strains (50%) than among diarrheal patients strains (12.79%, P = 0.0003), healthy carrier strains (7.14%, P = 0.007), or animal strains (15.79%, P = 0.020). The two predominant subtypes (eae-β1 and eae-θ) had considerable polymorphisms with no significant differences among the four sources. PFGE analysis revealed 119 distinct patterns and the strains were clustered into 11 groups with similarity indices ranging from 63% to 100%. These results suggest that in China, aEPEC strains from different sources are highly heterogeneous. Animals and raw meats are important sources of genetically diverse intimin-harboring aEPEC, which might serve as important transmission vehicles of these bacteria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: After the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic, we conducted hospital-based severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) surveillance in one central Chinese city to assess disease burden attributable to influenza among adults and adolescents. Methods: We defined an adult SARI case as a hospitalized patient aged ≥ 15 years with temperature ≥38.0°C and at least one of the following: cough, sore throat, tachypnea, difficulty breathing, abnormal breath sounds on auscultation, sputum production, hemoptysis, chest pain, or chest radiograph consistent with pneumonia. For each enrolled SARI case-patient, we completed a standardized case report form, and collected a nasopharyngeal swab within 24 hours of admission. Specimens were tested for influenza viruses by real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR). We analyzed data from adult SARI cases in four hospitals in Jingzhou, China from April 2010 to April 2012. Results: Of 1,790 adult SARI patients enrolled, 40% were aged ≥ 65 years old. The median duration of hospitalization was 9 days. Nearly all were prescribed antibiotics during their hospitalization, less than 1% were prescribed oseltamivir, and 28% were prescribed corticosteroids. Only 0.1% reported receiving influenza vaccination in the past year. Of 1,704 samples tested, 16% were positive for influenza. Influenza activity in all age groups showed winter-spring and summer peaks. Influenza-positive patients had a longer duration from illness onset to hospitalization and a shorter duration from hospital admission to discharge or death compared to influenza negative SARI patients. Conclusions: There is substantial burden of influenza-associated SARI hospitalizations in Jingzhou, China, especially among older adults. More effective promotion of annual seasonal influenza vaccination and timely oseltamivir treatment among high risk groups may improve influenza prevention and control in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Voluntary Medical Male circumcision (VMMC) is an evidence-based, yet under-utilized biomedical HIV intervention in China. No study has investigated acceptability of VMMC among male sexually transmitted diseases patients (MSTDP) who are at high risk of HIV transmission. A cross-sectional survey interviewed 350 HIV negative heterosexual MSTDP in Shenzhen, China; 12.0% (n = 42) of them were circumcised at the time of survey. When the uncircumcised participants (n = 308) were informed that VMMC could reduce the risk of HIV infection via heterosexual intercourse by 50%, the prevalence of acceptability of VMMC in the next six months was 46.1%. Adjusted for significant background variables, significant factors of acceptability of VMMC included: 1) emotional variables: the Emotional Representation Subscale (adjusted odds ratios, AOR = 1.13, 95%CI: 1.06–1.18), 2) cognitive variables derived from Health Belief Model (HBM): perceived some chance of having sex with HIV positive women in the next 12 months (AOR = 2.48, 95%CI: 1.15–5.33) (perceived susceptibility), perceived severity of STD infection (AOR = 1.06, 95%CI: 1.02–1.10), perceived benefit of VMMC in risk reduction (AOR = 1.29, 95%CI: 1.16–1.42) and sexual performance (AOR = 1.45, 95%CI: 1.26–1.71), perceived barriers against taking up VMMC (AOR = 0.88, 95%CI: 0.81–0.95), and perceived cue to action (AOR = 1.41, 95%CI: 1.23–1.61) and self-efficacy (AOR = 1.38, 95%CI: 1.26–1.35) related to taking up VMMC. The association between perceived severity of STD infection and acceptability was fully mediated by emotional representation of STD infection. The relatively low prevalence of circumcision and high acceptability suggested that the situation was favorable for implementing VMMC as a means of HIV intervention among MSTDP in China. HBM is a potential suitable framework to guide the design of future VMMC promotion. Future implementation programs should be conducted in STD clinic settings, taking the important findings of this study into account. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In recent years, drug resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) particularly the emergence of multi-drug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) has become a major public health issue. The most recent study regarding the prevalence of drug-resistant tuberculosis in mainland China was a meta-analysis published in 2011, and the subjects from the included studies were mostly enrolled before 2008, thus making it now obsolete. Current data on the national prevalence of DR-TB is needed. This review aims to provide a comprehensive and up-to-date assessment of the status of DR-TB epidemic in mainland China. Methods: A systematic review and meta-analysis of studies regarding the prevalence of drug-resistant tuberculosis in mainland China was performed. Pubmed/MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Cochrane central database, the Chinese Biomedical Literature Database and the China National Knowledge Infrastructure Database were searched for studies relevant to drug-resistant tuberculosis that were published between January 1, 2012 and May 18, 2015. Comprehensive Meta-Analysis (V2.2, Biostat) software was used to analyse the data. Results: A total of fifty-nine articles, published from 2012 to 2015, were included in our review. The result of this meta-analysis demonstrated that among new cases, the rate of resistance to any drug was 20.1% (18.0%–22.3%; n/N = 7203/34314) and among retreatment cases, the rate was 49.8% (46.0%–53.6%; n/N = 4155/8291). Multi-drug resistance among new and retreatment cases was 4.8% (4.0%–5.7%; n/N = 2300/42946) and 26.3% (23.1%–29.7%; n/N = 3125/11589) respectively. The results were significantly heterogeneous (p<0.001, I2 tests). Resistance to isoniazid was the most common resistance observed, and HRSE (H: isoniazid; R: rifampicin; S: streptomycin; E: ethambutol) was the most common form for MDR among both new and retreatment cases. Different drug resistance patterns were found by subgroup analysis according to geographic areas, subject enrolment time, and methods of drug susceptibility test (DST). Conclusions: The prevalence of resistance to any drug evidently dropped for both new and retreatment cases, and multi-drug resistance declined among new cases but became more prevalent among retreatment cases compared to the data before 2008. Therefore, drug-resistant tuberculosis, particularly multi-drug-resistant tuberculosis among retreatment TB cases is a public health issue in China that requires a constant attention in order to prevent increase in MDR-TB cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease (HFMD) is a worldwide infectious disease. In China, many provinces have reported HFMD cases, especially the south and southwest provinces. Many studies have found a strong association between the incidence of HFMD and climatic factors such as temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity. However, few studies have analyzed cluster effects between various geographical units. Methods: The nonlinear relationships and lag effects between weekly HFMD cases and climatic variables were estimated for the period of 2008–2013 using a polynomial distributed lag model. The extra-Poisson multilevel spatial polynomial model was used to model the exact relationship between weekly HFMD incidence and climatic variables after considering cluster effects, provincial correlated structure of HFMD incidence and overdispersion. The smoothing spline methods were used to detect threshold effects between climatic factors and HFMD incidence. Results: The HFMD incidence spatial heterogeneity distributed among provinces, and the scale measurement of overdispersion was 548.077. After controlling for long-term trends, spatial heterogeneity and overdispersion, temperature was highly associated with HFMD incidence. Weekly average temperature and weekly temperature difference approximate inverse “V” shape and “V” shape relationships associated with HFMD incidence. The lag effects for weekly average temperature and weekly temperature difference were 3 weeks and 2 weeks. High spatial correlated HFMD incidence were detected in northern, central and southern province. Temperature can be used to explain most of variation of HFMD incidence in southern and northeastern provinces. After adjustment for temperature, eastern and Northern provinces still had high variation HFMD incidence. Conclusion: We found a relatively strong association between weekly HFMD incidence and weekly average temperature. The association between the HFMD incidence and climatic variables spatial heterogeneity distributed across provinces. Future research should explore the risk factors that cause spatial correlated structure or high variation of HFMD incidence which can be explained by temperature. When analyzing association between HFMD incidence and climatic variables, spatial heterogeneity among provinces should be evaluated. Moreover, the extra-Poisson multilevel model was capable of modeling the association between overdispersion of HFMD incidence and climatic variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: More and more HIV therapeutic vaccines will enter clinical trials; however, little is known about the willingness to participate (WTP) in HIV therapeutic vaccine trials among HIV-positive individuals. Objective: To investigate the WTP in HIV therapeutic vaccine trials among Chinese HIV-infected patients. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional survey on HIV-positive inpatients and outpatients at Shanghai Public Health Center. A total of 447 participants were recruited into this study. Following an introduction with general information on HIV therapeutic vaccine and its potential effectiveness and side effects, each participant completed a questionnaire in a self-administered form. The questionnaires covered demographics, high-risk behaviors, clinical characteristics and willingness to participate in HIV therapeutic vaccine trial. Results: The overall willingness to participate in HIV therapeutic vaccine trials was 91.5%. Interestingly, multivariate logistic regression analyses demonstrated that the willingness was higher for those sexually infected by HIV (odds ratio [OR]: 4.36; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.53–12.41), diagnosed as HIV-1 infection for greater than 5 years (OR: 7.12, 95% CI: 1.83–27.76), and with the presence of infectious complications (OR: 2.75; 95% CI: 1.02–7.45). The primary reason for participation was to delay or reduce antiretroviral treatment (ART) and to avoid ART side effects (76.6%), and then followed by delaying disease progression (74.9%), increasing immune response to suppress opportunistic infections (57.7%) and preventing the development of drug resistance (37.1%). Reasons for unwillingness to participate mainly included concern for safety (37.0%), lack of knowledge on therapeutic vaccine (33.3%), and satisfaction with ART effectiveness (22.2%). Conclusions: The WTP in HIV therapeutic vaccine trials was high among HIV-infected Chinese patients. HIV+ subjects who acquired infection through sexual contact and who were diagnosed for more than 5 years may represent a good candidate population for enrollment in therapeutic vaccine trials. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]