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To balance the supply and demand in China's beef market, beef consumption must be scientifically and effectively forecasted. Beef consumption is affected by many factors and is characterized by gray uncertainty. Therefore, gray theory can be used to forecast the beef consumption, In this paper, the structural defects and unreasonable parameter design of the traditional gray model are analyzed. Then, a new gray model termed, EGM(1,1,r), is built, and the modeling conditions and error checking methods of EGM(1,1,r) are studied. Then, EGM(1,1,r) is used to simulate and forecast China’s beef consumption. The results show that both the simulation and prediction precisions of the new model are better than those of other gray models. Finally, the new model is used to forecast China’s beef consumption for the period from 2019–2025. The findings will serve as an important reference for the Chinese government in formulating policies to ensure the balance between the supply and demand for Chinese beef. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Following the emergence of H7N9 influenza in March 2013, local animal and public health authorities in China have been closing live bird markets as a measure to try to control the H7N9 influenza epidemic. The role of live bird market (LBM) closure on the spread of N7N9 influenza following the closure of LBMs during March to May 2013 (the first wave) and October 2013 to March 2014 (the second wave) is described in this paper. Different provinces implemented closure actions at different times, and intensive media reports on H7N9 in different provinces started at different times. Local broiler prices dropped dramatically in places with outbreaks and more live chickens were transported to other LBMs in neighboring areas without human cases from infected areas when live bird markets were being closed. There were six clusters of human infection from March to May 2013 and October 2013 to March 2014 and there may have been intensive poultry transportation among cluster areas. These findings provide evidence that the closure of LBMs in early waves of H7N9 influenza had resulted in expansion of H7N9 infection to uninfected areas. This suggests that provincial authorities in inland provinces should be alert to the risks of sudden changes in movement patterns for live birds after LBM closure or increased publicity about LBM closure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pigs have played a major role in the economic, social and symbolic systems of China since the Early Neolithic more than 8,000 years ago. However, the interaction between the history of pig domestication and transformations in Chinese society since then, have not been fully explored. In this paper, we investigated the co-evolution from the earliest farming communities through to the new political and economic models of state-like societies, up to the Chinese Empire, using 5,000 years of archaeological records from the Xiawanggang (XWG) and Xinzhai (XZ) sites (Henan Province). To trace the changes of pig populations against husbandry practices, we combined the geometric morphometric analysis of dental traits with a study of the stable carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios from bone collagen. The domestication process intensified during the Neolithic Yangshao, prompted by greater selective pressure and/or better herd control against wild introgression. After that, pig farming, in XWG, relied on local livestock and a gradual change of husbandry practices overtime. This was characterized by a gentle increase in millet foddering and animal protein intake, until a complete change over to household management during the Han dynasty. The only rupture in this steady trend of husbandry occurred during the Longshan period, with the appearance of small sized and idiosyncratic pigs with specific feeding practices (relying on millet and household scraps). From three exploratory hypothesis, we explored the possibility of anti-elite pig production in XWG during the Longshan period, as a means to resist incorporation into a new economic model promoting intensified domestic production. This exploratory hypothesis is the most suitable to our dataset; however, numerous areas need to be explored further in order to adequately document the role of pigs in the rise of China’s complex societies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prior to the introduction of wheat and barley from Central Asia during the Neolithic period, northern Chinese agricultural groups subsisted heavily on millet. Despite being the focus of many decades of intensive interest and research, the exact route(s), date(s), and mechanisms of the spread and adoption of wheat and barley into the existing well-established millet-based diet in northern China are still debated. As the majority of the important introduced crops are C3 plants, while the indigenous millet is C4, archaeologists can effectively identify the consumption of any introduced crops using stable carbon isotope analysis. Here we examine published stable isotope and dental caries data of human skeletal remains from 77 archaeological sites across northern and northwestern China. These sites date between 9000 to 1750 BP, encompassing the period from the beginning of agriculture to wheat’s emergence as a staple crop in northern China. The aim of this study is to evaluate the implications of the spread and adoption of these crops in ancient China. Detailed analysis of human bone collagen δ13C values reveals an almost concurrent shift from a C4-based to a mixed C3/ C4– based subsistence economy across all regions at around 4500–4000 BP. This coincided with a global climatic event, Holocene Event 3 at 4200 BP, suggesting that the sudden change in subsistence economy across northern and northwestern China was likely related to climate change. Moreover, the substantially increased prevalence of dental caries from pre–to post–4000 BP indicates an increase in the consumption of cariogenic cereals during the later period. The results from this study have significant implications for understanding how the adoption of a staple crop can be indicative of large-scale environmental and socio-political changes in a region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Many studies focused on reasons behind the increasing incidence and the spread of human brucellosis in mainland China, yet most of them lacked comprehensive consideration with quantitative evidence. Hence, this study aimed to further investigate the epidemic mechanism and associated factors of human brucellosis so as to provide thoughts for future countermeasures in China and the rest of the world. Methods: Data of human brucellosis incidence and some associated factors in economy, animal husbandry, transportation as well as health and hygiene were collected at provincial level from 2005–2016. Time series plots were first used to visualize the annual incidence and annual rate of change of human brucellosis for each province, then cluster analysis categorized all the 31 provinces of mainland China based on their incidence time series during the study period. In addition, according to the characteristics of data, the dynamic panel data model in combination with supervised principal component analysis was proposed to explore effects of associated factors on human brucellosis. Results: 1. The incidence rate of human brucellosis in mainland China increased three-fold from 1.41 per 100,000 people in 2005 to 4.22 per 100,000 people in 2014, though it went down a little in 2015 and 2016. Incidence rates in the north have always been higher than those in the south, but the latter also experienced an upward trend especially between 2012 and 2016. 2. The 31 provinces of mainland China were categorized into three clusters, and each cluster had its own characteristics of incidence time series. 3. The impact of health and hygiene situations on the prevention and control work of human brucellosis was still very limited and trivial (regression coefficient = -0.02). Therefore, it was plausible to presume that improving the personal average number of medical institutes and the proportion of rural medical expenditure might be helpful in preventing and controlling human brucellosis. Conclusions: The epidemic status of human brucellosis has changed in both spatial and temporal dimensions in recent years in mainland China. Apart from traditional control measures, more attention should be paid to the improvement of medical healthcare especially in rural areas in the hope of enhancing the control effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Zoonotic avian influenza poses a major risk to China, and other parts of the world. H5N1 has remained endemic in China and globally for nearly two decades, and in 2013, a novel zoonotic influenza A subtype H7N9 emerged in China. This study aimed to improve upon our current understanding of the spreading mechanisms of H7N9 and H5N1 by generating spatial risk profiles for each of the two virus subtypes across mainland China. Methods and findings: In this study, we (i) developed a refined data set of H5N1 and H7N9 locations with consideration of animal/animal environment case data, as well as spatial accuracy and precision; (ii) used this data set along with environmental variables to build species distribution models (SDMs) for each virus subtype in high resolution spatial units of 1km2 cells using Maxent; (iii) developed a risk modelling framework which integrated the results from the SDMs with human and chicken population variables, which was done to quantify the risk of zoonotic transmission; and (iv) identified areas at high risk of H5N1 and H7N9 transmission. We produced high performing SDMs (6 of 8 models with AUC > 0.9) for both H5N1 and H7N9. In all our SDMs, H7N9 consistently showed higher AUC results compared to H5N1, suggesting H7N9 suitability could be better explained by environmental variables. For both subtypes, high risk areas were primarily located in south-eastern China, with H5N1 distributions found to be more diffuse and extending more inland compared to H7N9. Conclusions: We provide projections of our risk models to public health policy makers so that specific high risk areas can be targeted for control measures. We recommend comparing H5N1 and H7N9 prevalence rates and survivability in the natural environment to better understand the role of animal and environmental transmission in human infections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to make clear the recent status and trend of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) production in China, datasets from multiple field experiments and published literature were collected to study the agronomic characteristics related to grain yield, fertilizer application and nutrient use efficiency from the year 2000 to 2011. The results showed that the mean grain yield of wheat in 2000–2011 was 5950 kg/ha, while the N, P2O5 and K2O application rates were 172, 102 and 91 kg/ha on average, respectively. The decrease in N and P2O5 and increase in K2O balanced the nutrient supply and was the main reason for yield increase. The partial factor productivity (PFP, kg grain yield produced per unit of N, P2O5 or K2O applied) values of N (PFP-N), P (PFP-P) and K (PFP-K) were in the ranges of 29.5~39.6, 43.4~74.9 and 44.1~76.5 kg/kg, respectively. While PFP-N showed no significant changes from 2000 to 2010, both PFP-P and PFP-K showed an increased trend over this period. The mean agronomic efficiency (AE, kg grain yield increased per unit of N, P2O5 or K2O applied) values of N (AEN), P (AEP) and K (AEK) were 9.4, 10.2 and 6.5 kg/kg, respectively. The AE values demonstrated marked inter-annual fluctuations, with the amplitude of fluctuation for AEN greater than those for AEP and AEK. The mean fertilizer recovery efficiency (RE, the fraction of nutrient uptake in aboveground plant dry matter to the nutrient of fertilizer application) values of N, P and K in the aboveground biomass were 33.1%, 24.3% and 28.4%, respectively. It was also revealed that different wheat ecological regions differ greatly in wheat productivity, fertilizer application and nutrient use efficiency. In summary, it was suggested that best nutrient management practices, i.e. fertilizer recommendation applied based on soil testing or yield response, with strategies to match the nutrient input with realistic yield and demand, or provided with the 4R’s nutrient management (right time, right rate, right site and right fertilizer) should be adopted widely to improve the yield production and nutrient use efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The green mirid bug Apolygus lucorum is a regional pest of multiple crops in northern China, and the survival and development of diapausing eggs during winter plays an important role in the population dynamics of this species. The effect of water on the survival and development of A. lucorum eggs was investigated using laboratory-induced diapause. Diapausing eggs were exposed to various humidity regimes under three conditions: (1) termination of diapause with exposure to warm long-day (WLD) conditions (i.e., 26 ± 1°C and 75 ± 5% relative humidity (RH) under a photoperiod of 16 hours light and 8 hours dark), (2) termination of diapause by chilling at 4°C, or (3) during the post-diapause stage, i.e., from transfer to WLD conditions after chilling, until the hatching of nymphs. The results indicate that water availability is crucial for the post-diapause resumption of development of A. lucorum. However, exposure to excessive moisture was detrimental, as indicated by a decrease in diapause termination rate and a prolonged pre-hatching period of diapausing eggs, compared to limited moisture conditions. This implies that both too dry and too humid environmental conditions would suppress survival and postpone hatching of overwintered A. lucorum eggs, and might explain why this pest has not caused severe damage in either southern or western China where the respective climates are very humid or dry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In an effort to trace the evolution of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV), S1 and ORF3 genes of viruses identified in 41 pig farms from seven regions (North, Northeast, Northwest, Central, East, South West, and South, respectively) of China in 2015 were sequenced and analyzed. Sequence analysis revealed that the 41 ORF3 genes and 29 S1 genes identified in our study exhibited nucleotide homologies of 98.2%–100% and 96.6%–100%, respectively; these two genes exhibited low nucleotide sequence similarities with classical CV777 strain and early Chinese strain LZC. Phylogenetic analysis indicated that the identified PEDV strains belonged to global non S-INDEL strains, and exhibited genetic diversity; S1 gene of the HLJ2015/DP1-1 strain harbored an unique deletion of 12 nucleotides (A1130CAACTCCACTG1141); while the Chinese PEDV S-INDEL reference strains included two types of the “CV777” S-INDEL as well as the “US” S-INDEL, and all co-circulated with Chinese non S-INDEL strains. Of 29 identified S1 genes, the SS2 epitope (Y748SNIGVCK755) was highly conserved, while the SS6 epitope (L764QDGQVKI771) and pAPN receptor-binding region (aa 490–615) exhibited amino substitutions. Nine possible recombination events were identified between the 29 identifed S1 genes and the 3 S1 reference genes from early Chinese PEDV strains. The complete S genes of selected Chinese PEDV field strains (2011–2015) showed 5.18%–6.07% nucleotide divergence, which is far higher than the divergence observed in early Chinese PEDV strains (3.1%) (P<0.05). Our data provide evidence that PEDV non S-INDEL strains with genetic diversities and potential recombination circulate in seven regions of China in 2015; Chinese PEDV S-INDEL strains exhibit genetic diversity and co-circulate with non S-INDEL strains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the past decade, developing countries have been experiencing rapid land use and land cover changes, including deforestation and cultivation of previously forested land. However, little is known about the impact of deforestation and land-use changes on the life history of malaria vectors and their effects on malaria transmission. This study examined the effects of deforestation and crop cultivation on the adult survivorship of major malaria mosquitoes, Anopheles sinensis and An. minimus in the China-Myanmar border region. We examined three conditions: indoor, forested, and banana plantation. Mean survival time of An. sinensis in banana plantation environment was significantly longer than those in forested environment, and mosquitoes exhibited the longest longevity in the indoor environment. This pattern held for both males and females, and also for An. minimus. To further test the effect of temperature on mosquito survival, we used two study sites with different elevation and ambient temperatures. Significantly higher survivorship of both species was found in sites with lower elevation and higher ambient temperature. Increased vector survival in the deforested area could have an important impact on malaria transmission in Southeast Asia. Understanding how deforestation impacts vector survivorship can help combat malaria transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: This study was to observe the non-heme iron absorption and biological utilization from typical whole Chinese diets in young Chinese healthy urban men, and to observe if the iron absorption and utilization could be affected by the staple food patterns of Southern and Northern China. Materials and Methods: Twenty-two young urban men aged 18–24 years were recruited and randomly assigned to two groups in which the staple food was rice and steamed buns, respectively. Each subject received 3 meals containing approximately 3.25 mg stable 57FeSO4 (the ratio of 57Fe content in breakfast, lunch and dinner was 1:2:2) daily for 2 consecutive days. In addition, approximately 2.4 mg 58FeSO4 was administered intravenously to each subject at 30–60 min after dinner each day. Blood samples were collected from each subject to measure the enrichment of the 57Fe and 58Fe. Fourteen days after the experimental diet, non-heme iron absorption was assessed by measuring 57Fe incorporation into red blood cells, and absorbed iron utilization was determined according to the red blood cell incorporation of intravenously infused 58Fe SO4. Results: Non-heme iron intake values overall, and in the rice and steamed buns groups were 12.8 ±2.1, 11.3±1.3 and 14.3±1.5 mg, respectively; the mean 57Fe absorption rates were 11±7%, 13±7%, and 8±4%, respectively; and the mean infused 58Fe utilization rates were 85±8%, 84±6%, and 85±10%, respectively. There was no significantly difference in the iron intakes, and 57Fe absorption and infused 58Fe utilization rates between rice and steamed buns groups (all P>0.05). Conclusion: We present the non-heme iron absorption and utilization rates from typical whole Chinese diets among young Chinese healthy urban men, which was not affected by the representative staple food patterns of Southern and Northern China. This study will provide a basis for the setting of Chinese iron DRIs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atypical enteropathogenic Escherichia coli (aEPEC) is considered to be an emerging enteropathogen that is more prevalent than typical EPEC in developing and developed countries. The major adherence factor, intimin, an outer membrane protein encoded by eae, plays a pivotal role in the pathogenesis of aEPEC. This study investigated the distribution and polymorphisms of intimin subtypes of 143 aEPEC strains from diarrheal patients, healthy carriers, animals, and raw meats in China. These aEPEC strains belonged to more than 71 different serotypes, which comprised 52 O serogroups and 24 H types. Sixty-eight different eae genotypes and 19 intimin subtypes were detected. Eighteen, eight, seven, and five intimin subtypes were identified from 86 diarrheal patients, 14 healthy carriers, 19 animals, and 24 raw meats strains, respectively. Intimin β1 was the most prevalent subtype in strains from diarrheal patients (34.88%) and animals (47.37%). There was a statistically significant difference in the distribution of eae-β1 between diarrheal patients and healthy carriers (P = 0.004). Intimin-θ was more predominant among raw meat strains (50%) than among diarrheal patients strains (12.79%, P = 0.0003), healthy carrier strains (7.14%, P = 0.007), or animal strains (15.79%, P = 0.020). The two predominant subtypes (eae-β1 and eae-θ) had considerable polymorphisms with no significant differences among the four sources. PFGE analysis revealed 119 distinct patterns and the strains were clustered into 11 groups with similarity indices ranging from 63% to 100%. These results suggest that in China, aEPEC strains from different sources are highly heterogeneous. Animals and raw meats are important sources of genetically diverse intimin-harboring aEPEC, which might serve as important transmission vehicles of these bacteria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: The contribution of unhealthy dietary patterns to the epidemic of obesity has been well recognized. Differences in availability of foods may have an important influence on individual eating behaviors and health disparities. This study examined the availability of food stores and food service places by city characteristics on city level of income and urbanization. Methods: The cross-sectional survey was comprised of two parts: (1) an on-site observation to measure availability of food stores and food service places in 12 cities of China; (2) an in-store survey to determine the presence of fresh/frozen vegetables or fruits in all food stores. Trained investigators walked all the streets/roads within study tracts to identify all the food outlets. An observational survey questionnaire was used in all food stores to determine the presence of fresh/frozen vegetables or fruits. Urbanization index was determined for each city using a principal components factor analysis. City level of income and urbanization and numbers of each type of food stores and food service places were examined using negative binomial regression models. Results: Large-sized supermarkets and specialty retailers had higher number of fresh/frozen vegetables or fruits sold compared to small/medium-sized markets. High-income versus low-income, high urbanized versus low urbanized areas had significantly more large-sized supermarkets and fewer small/medium-sized markets. In terms of restaurants, high urbanized cities had more western fast food restaurants and no statistically significant difference in the relative availability of any type of restaurants was found between high- and low-income areas. Conclusions: The findings suggested food environment disparities did exist in different cities of China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]