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The Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) is the main measure used in Australia for estimating fire risk. Recent work by the authors showed that the FFDI forms stable state regimes, nominated as fire climate regimes. These regimes shifted to greater intensity in southern and eastern Australia around the year 2000 and, a decade later, further north. Reductions in atmospheric moisture were the primary contributor. These changes have not been fully incorporated into future projections. This paper compares the recent regime shifts with the most recent national projections of FFDI, published in 2015. They show that for most states and regions, the 2030 upper limit is approached or exceeded by the recent shift, except for two states with large arid zones, South Australia and Western Australia. Methods for attributing past changes, constructing projections, and the inability of climate models to reproduce the recent decreases in atmospheric moisture, all contribute to these underestimates. To address these shortcomings, we make some suggestions to modify efforts aiming to develop seamless predictions and projections of future fire risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to provide a better understanding of the transition towards a new paradigm of wildfire risk management in Victoria that incorporates Aboriginal fire knowledge. We show the suitability of cultural burning in the transformed landscapes, and the challenges associated with its reintroduction for land management and bushfire risk reduction after the traumatic disruption of invasion and colonization. Methods of Environmental History and Regional Geography were combined with Traditional Ecological Knowledge to unravel the connections between past, present and future fire and land management practices. Our study area consists of Dja Dja Wurrung and Bangarang/Yorta Yorta Country in north-central Victoria. The results show (i) the ongoing socio-political process for building a renewed integrated fire and land management approach including cultural burning, and (ii) the opportunities of Aboriginal fire culture for restoring landscape resilience to wildfires. We conclude that both wildfire risk management and cultural burning need to change together to adapt to the new environmental context and collaborate for mutual and common benefit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ethnographic observations suggest that Indigenous peoples employed a distinct regime of frequent, low-intensity fires in the Australian landscape in the past. However, the timing of this behaviour and its ecological impact remain uncertain. Here, we present detailed analysis of charcoal, including a novel measure of fire severity using Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy, at a site in eastern Australia that spans the last two glacial/interglacial transitions between 135–104 ka and 18–0.5 ka BP (broadly equivalent to Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 6-5 and 2-1, respectively). The accumulation of charcoal and vegetation composition was similar across both periods, correlating closely with Antarctic ice core records, and suggesting that climate is the main driver of fire regimes. Fire severity was lower over the past 18,000 years compared to the penultimate glacial/interglacial period and suggests increasing anthropogenic influence over the landscape during this time. Together with local archaeological records, our data therefore imply that Indigenous peoples have been undertaking cultural burning since the beginning of the Holocene, and potentially the end of the Last Glacial Maximum. We highlight the fact that this signal is not easily discernible in the other proxies examined, including widely used charcoal techniques, and propose that any anthropogenic signal will be subtle in the palaeo-environmental record. While early Indigenous people's reasons for landscape burning were different from those today, our findings nonetheless suggest that the current land management directions are based on a substantive history and could result in a reduction in extreme fire events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Very few multi-species or ecosystem comparisons of post-fire vertebrate herbivore activity and food preference exist to inform fire management and conservation strategies. We inferred post-fire (1–3 years) native and introduced vertebrate herbivore activity and attraction to six diverse temperate vegetation communities (grassland to rainforest) from scat counts. We hypothesised that where fire reduced herbaceous and grassy vegetation ('fodder'), vertebrate herbivores would decline, and that post-fire preferences of native versus exotic herbivores would differ significantly. Instead, we found evidence for a 'fire and fodder reversal phenomenon' whereby native macropod and exotic deer scats were more abundant after fire in consistently 'fodder-poor' vegetation types (e.g., heath) but less abundant after fire in previously fodder-rich vegetation communities (e.g., grassland). Fodder cover predicted native macropod, wombat, and introduced deer activity and bare ground cover was strongly associated with introduced herbivore activity only, with the latter indicating post-fire competition for food sources due to their abundance in high-altitude open ecosystems. We, therefore, found environmental and vegetation predictors for each individual species/group and suggest broadscale multi-environment, multispecies observations to be informative for conservation management in potentially overlapping post-fire niches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The summer season of 2019-2020 has been named Australia's Black Summer because of the large forest fires that burnt for months in southeast Australia, affecting millions of Australia's citizens and hundreds of millions of animals and capturing global media attention. This extensive fire season has been attributed to the global climate crisis, a long drought season and extreme fire weather conditions. Our aim in this study was to examine the factors that have led some of the wildfires to burn over larger areas for a longer duration and to cause more damage to vegetation. To this end, we studied all large forest and non-forest fires (>100 km²) that burnt in Australia between September 2019 and mid-February 2020 (Australia's Black Summer fires), focusing on the forest fires in southeast Australia. We used a segmentation algorithm to define individual polygons of large fires based on the burn date from NASA's Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) active fires product and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) burnt area product (MCD64A1). For each of the wildfires, we calculated the following 10 response variables, which served as proxies for the fires' extent in space and time, spread and intensity: fire area, fire duration (days), the average spread of fire (area/days), fire radiative power (FRP; as detected by NASA's MODIS Collection 6 active fires product (MCD14ML)), two burn severity products, and changes in vegetation as a result of the fire (as calculated using the vegetation health index (VHI) derived from AVHRR and VIIRS as well as live fuel moisture content (LFMC), photosynthetic vegetation (PV) and combined photosynthetic and non-photosynthetic vegetation (PV+NPV) derived from MODIS). We also computed more than 30 climatic, vegetation and anthropogenic variables based on remotely sensed derived variables, climatic time series and land cover datasets, which served as the explanatory variables. Altogether, 391 large fires were identified for Australia's Black Summer. These included 205 forest fires with an average area of 584 km² and 186 non-forest fires with an average area of 445 km²; 63 of the forest fires took place in southeast (SE) Australia (the area between Fraser Island, Queensland, and Kangaroo Island, South Australia), with an average area of 1097 km². Australia's Black Summer forest fires burnt for more days compared with non-forest fires. Overall, the stepwise regression models were most successful at explaining the response variables for the forest fires in SE Australia (n = 63; median-adjusted R² of 64.3%), followed by all forest fires (n = 205; median-adjusted R² of 55.8%) and all non-forest fires (n = 186; median-adjusted R² of 48.2%). The two response variables that were best explained by the explanatory variables used as proxies for fires' extent, spread and intensity across all models for the Black Summer forest and non-forest fires were the change in PV due to fire (median-adjusted R² of 69.1%) and the change in VHI due to fire (median-adjusted R² of 66.3%). Amongst the variables we examined, vegetation and fuel-related variables (such as previous frequency of fires and the conditions of the vegetation before the fire) were found to be more prevalent in the multivariate models for explaining the response variables in comparison with climatic and anthropogenic variables. This result suggests that better management of wildland-urban interfaces and natural vegetation using cultural and prescribed burning as well as planning landscapes with less flammable and more fire-tolerant ground cover plants may reduce fire risk to communities living near forests, but this is challenging given the sheer size and diversity of ecosystems in Australia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]