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In terms of cataloged debris produced, the anti-satellite test carried out by Russia, in November 2021, at an altitude of about 480 km, leading to the destruction of the old satellite Cosmos 1408, was the second worst to date and represented the third worst fragmentation in orbit. It generated more than 1/4 of the cataloged debris produced over 55 years by all such tests and almost twice as many as were produced by all previous Soviet tests. After placing this event in its historical context, this paper analyzes in detail how the evolution of the Cosmos 1408 debris cloud affected the environment below 600 km in the first seven months, focusing on the two operational space stations and the Starlink large constellation of satellites. During the first six months following the test, the Cosmos 1408 cloud of fragments nearly doubled the average flux of cataloged objects on the International Space Station and increased by about 3/4 that on China's Tiangong. In the same period, the Starlink large constellation saw an average increase in the flux of cataloged objects of about 20%. Some orbital planes, the "counter-rotating" ones with respect to the Cosmos 1408 debris cloud, were more affected than others, and the affected planes gradually changed over time, due to the differential precession of cloud and constellation nodes. However, being the Starlink constellation 70 km higher up, the flux of Cosmos 1408 cataloged debris steadily decreased over the period analyzed, due to the cloud orbital decay, reducing to just over a quarter of its extrapolated initial value after seven months. • A review of ASAT tests as a source of orbital debris was presented. • The impact of the Cosmos 1408 destruction was put into context. • The cataloged debris flux increase on space stations was computed and discussed. • The debris flux increase and evolution on Starlink orbit planes was analyzed. • A moratorium on this type of ASAT tests was recommended, including low LEO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Thawing permafrost has affected the structural integrity of buried warm pipelines in cold regions and poses an ongoing threat in the context of climate change. Therefore, characterizing variation in the engineering properties of pipeline foundation permafrost and its effect on the mechanical behavior of pipeline is important. In this paper, the ground temperature distributions around a buried warm pipeline and mechanical response of the pipeline to differential thaw settlement of foundation permafrost are investigated using thermal–mechanical sequential coupling simulation, based on the observational data collected from a selected monitoring site along the China-Russia crude oil pipelines in northeastern China. The results indicate that the thaw-induced settlement of pipeline foundation permafrost develops quickly with the formation and expansion of the thaw bulb in the first 10 years, and then increases slowly when the thaw bulb extends to the weathered granite. Differential thaw settlement will cause a significant change in the deformation and stress of the pipeline near the interface of strong and weak thaw settlement zones. When the length ratio of strong and weak thaw settlement zones is 1, the maximum stress of the pipeline with a thickness of 16 mm is approximately 45% of the allowable stress of X65 steel, and the pipeline remains safe for 30 years. However, the potential failure of the pipeline should be considered due to the continued ground thawing and warming and pipe material aging. Forthcoming research on this topic is needed to evaluate more carefully the structural integrity of buried pipelines in cold regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China and Russia have different interests in the Arctic but are forced to look for possible ways of cooperation in energy projects in the current external conditions. This changes the priorities of both countries and, accordingly, transforms the risks. Objectives of the research: to build an algorithm for identifying anthropogenic environmental risks in the context of two major players economic activities in the Arctic region: the Russian Federation and China. In the paper, we formulated an algorithm of environmental risk identification. We identified environmental hazards from the main parameter—the type of economic activity for the extraction of energy resources, premises, and factors for the occurrence of environmental hazards and compiled criteria for risk selection. Methods used: complex analysis (mixed method research): empirical and comparative methods, methods of expert assessments, the method of inductive statistics (inferential statistics) to compare the perception of risk at the level of different groups. Results: the algorithm has been formed for determining risks in the changed external conditions. Major anthropogenic environmental risks are identified from the perspective of the main players in the Arctic—Russia and China, which can help to make the necessary decisions on time and partially prevent environmental degradation. This makes it possible to identify the risks associated with conducting economic activities for the extraction of energy resources in the Arctic region. Therefore, this study contributes to a more accurate identification of anthropogenic environmental risks in the Arctic region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ostensibly, Joe Biden's victory over Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential elections should have placed United States international policy back on a familiar path. However, despite the prevalence of a highly traditional vision of US foreign policy, the Biden administration has maintained significant continuities with the previous administration, as reflected in the policy towards China and the withdrawal from Afghanistan. In part, this is due to the constraints produced by the deep divisions that exist at domestic level. This paper aims to unravel the fundamental elements of Biden's foreign policy, focusing on possible ideological and doctrinal elements, strategic priorities, and any continuities and changes relative to his predecessor. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Joint Statement by the Foreign Ministers of China and Russia on Certain Aspects of Global Governance in Modern Conditions of 23 March 2021 calls for "the establishment of a fairer, more democratic and rational multipolar world order." The paper inquires how constitutional theories of international organisations have in the past and present sought to contribute to world order. It identifies three waves of such theory since the 1960s. Looking in more detail at the ongoing third wave, it identifies and seeks to pull out further a constitutional model which upscales the proto-democratic practices in international organisations by strengthening forums for participation and contestation, which rectifies to the north-south imbalance inter alia rooted in the colonial heritage by involving more actors from the global south, and which tackles the global social question upfront. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Meeting energy needs and ensuring ecological sustainability are important tasks for policymakers. In particular, changing the energy mix used in daily electricity generation can have a major effect on ecological conditions, and this is a previously neglected research topic. Therefore, this paper aims to investigate the influence of daily electricity generation from nuclear power and renewables on the achievement of carbon neutrality targets in the four largest nuclear power countries (i.e., the U.S., China, France, and Russia). The study applies the wavelet-transform coherence (WTC), quantile-on-quantile regression (QQR), and Granger causality in quantiles (GCQ) approaches for the period from January 2, 2019 to December 29, 2022. The outcomes present that electricity generation from nuclear energy reduces carbon (CO 2) emissions only in Russia, while hydropower generation does not contribute to CO 2 emission reduction in any country. Solar electricity generation decreases CO 2 emissions in different quantiles in the U.S. and Russia, while electricity generation from wind power reduces CO 2 emissions in the U.S. and France. The empirical outcomes also reveal that expanding solar, wind, and nuclear power in the energy mix can enhance the potential of the U.S., France, and Russia to achieve carbon neutrality and secure a sustainable future. However, China is using nuclear and renewables inefficiently regarding carbon neutrality. Therefore, the empirical evidence for China is highly controversial compared to former studies. [Display omitted] • The study examines renewable and nuclear electricity effect on carbon neutrality. • The study focuses on top four major nuclear power countries. • The study applies nonlinear approaches by using high-frequency (daily) data. • Renewable and nuclear electricity have time, frequency, & quantile-varying effect. • The best electricity source change according to each country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global reproductive landscapes and with them cross-border routes are rapidly changing. This paper examines the reproductive routes and choices of fertility travellers from China to Russia as reported by medical professionals and fertility service providers. Providing new empirical data, it raises new ethical questions on the facilitation of cross-border reproductive travel and the commercialisation of reproductive treatment. The relaxation of the one-child policy in 2014 in China, the increasing demand for ART exceeding the capacity of national fertility clinics and the difficulty of accessing treatment with donor eggs concomitant with a growing economic power of the upper–middle class are shaping the ART industry in Asia in new ways. A new development is Chinese citizens increasingly seeking ART treatment in Russia, which has a long-standing practice of ART governed by a liberal legislation. Furthermore, as China prohibits the export of gametes, Chinese fertility travellers rely on acquiring donor gametes once starting treatment abroad. Clinicians in Russia report three strategies amongst their Chinese patients: One group is using donor eggs of women of Asian appearance living in Russia or is hiring women of resembling appearance from third-party countries to donate their eggs in Russia to create resemblance in their offspring. Another group is buying white donor gametes to create Eurasian mixed children and thus 'enhance' their offspring. Providing novel empirical data, this article informs ethical deliberation and raises imminent questions for further research in this understudied geographic region and on cross-border reproductive treatment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The first-order grey model is appropriate for monotonic time series, while the grey Verhulst model is appropriate for periodic time series. The grey Verhulst model is widely used for predicting practical nonlinear time series that contain fluctuations. Despite the successful application of the grey models in practice, researchers show that grey models still have room for improvement. Moreover, recent research shows that grey models are sensitive to initial conditions. In many practical problems, the value of initial conditions is not accurate and suffers from noise or approximation errors, resulting in inaccurate prediction. To address these difficulties, an improved grey Verhulst method using particle swarm optimization is proposed in this paper. The proposed model consists of two stages. In the first stage, a second-order polynomial with unknown coefficients is used to approximate the 1- AGO. In the second stage, the initial element of the time series is modified to improve the accuracy of the prediction. The particle swarm optimization method is used to search for the unknown coefficients. It is found that PSO is a suitable optimization method for the proposed method because it is stable and generates a sequence of points that converges to a globally optimal solution. To demonstrate the efficiency and stability of the proposed method, it was applied to five practical problems, namely, gas production in China, the number of hazardous chemical accidents, CO2 emissions in Russia, the number of domestic tourists in China, and traffic flows in Canada. Numerical results show that the method is more accurate and robust than existing methods. • The proposed method needs only four elements for predicting the future elements of time series. • The paper proposes a second order polynomial for approximating 1-AGO. • The method makes more accurate prediction than existed methods. • The proposed method is applied on various practical forecasting problems successfully. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper will briefly review several turning points in the evolution of the Post-Cold War global order. During the Cold War, the bipolar international order was defined by an opposition between two superpowers whose positions were carefully balanced across the world. By contrast, due to the fact that the global security architecture was, and continues to be, in flux, the past three decades have witnessed a gradual transition from a unipolar world characterized by weak and inconsistent American leadership, to unmitigated efforts on the part of Russia and China to establish a multipolar equilibrium of power. At the same time, the New World Order was breaking with the long-held tradition of placing the military component at the center of the global security system and proclaimed the so-called "Comprehensive Security Doctrine" in which supremacy of law, democratic values, global economic prosperity, social justice, human rights, environmental protection, education and other elements played an equally important role. The idea of undiminished and equal security for all states, big or small, although very attractive in theory, turned out difficult to attain in practice. An emphasis is placed on different models of democracy determined by cultural and traditional peculiarities of states, using the rules of democracy and elections to maintain power. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Central Asia, the hub of natural resources, has been the battleground of international power politics among the big powers since long. In order to have influence in the region, the Russian and the British Empires indulge in the "Great Game". However, it ended with the collapse of the Russian empire. The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 created an unexpected power vacuum in Central Asia followed by a fierce competition between the big three, Russia, China and US. This competition is commonly known as "The New Great Game" in the present day international politics. The rich energy resources are usually considered the main reason of the renewed interests in the region and provide principal motivation for Russia, China and US. However, the role of energy resources is usually overstated. This paper will identify which other factors along with energy resources should be considered in order to have a broader and comprehensive understanding of the present Geo-political scenario in the Central Asia. Using the Neo-Realist approach, this paper will first analyze the significance of the Central Asian states, how they provoke strategic competition between great powers and how pipeline politics translate it. Finally, the paper will analyses the competing interests of Russia, China and US and the strategies adopted by each for the achievements of its objectives. It will be concluded by stating that how Russia, China and US struggle to attain, keep and enhance power and that energy resources are just a mean to this supreme objective. It will also conclude by asserting that although the great powers behave aggressively and self-interestedly they may find a minimum degree of cooperation to tackle common concerns such as a growing radical Islamism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In-situ monitoring system is absolutely necessary for a long-distance linear pipeline infrastructure in permafrost regions due to the complicated interaction between buried pipeline and its harsh permafrost environment. To study this complex problem, a comprehensive in-situ monitoring system has been designed and established along the China–Russia Crude Oil Pipeline (CRCOP), which is one of vital energy channels for importing crude oil from Russia to China. This monitoring system can record the meteorological data, ground temperature and water content within the permafrost foundation, vertical settlement of the oil pipe, ground surface deformation on the pipeline right-of-way (on-ROW), as well as the thaw bulb around the pipeline at four sites with different engineering geological conditions. In this paper, the layout and instrumentation of the whole monitoring system and monitoring methods are described in detail, and then the thermal regime of permafrost on-ROW and off-ROW and cooling performance of the mitigative measures on foundation soils are evaluated. Results show that heat dissipated from the CRCOP lead to the rapid degradation of permafrost on-ROW and produce different sizes of thaw bulb around the oil pipelines. The mitigative measures, including insulation layer, two-phase closed thermosyphon and U-shaped air-ventilated pipes, are effective to minimize permafrost degradation and ensure the thermal stability of permafrost foundation along the CRCOP. Some recommendations are proposed for future research and for the monitoring system to be improved. This monitoring system can provide multi-field data to clarify the interaction between pipeline and permafrost degradation under different geological conditions, and guide the design and maintenance of the buried warm pipeline in permafrost regions. • An in-situ monitoring system is set up along the CRCOP in permafrost regions. • The geological characteristics and layout of instrumentation at four monitoring sites are reported. • The integrated monitoring method for pipeline-permafrost interaction are presented. • Thermal effect of buried warm oil pipe on underlying permafrost is observed. • Cooling performance of the insulation layer, thermosyphon and U-shaped air-ventilated pipes is evaluated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The accurate and reasonable prediction of natural gas consumption is important for enhancing national energy security and alleviating the environmental problems caused by energy consumption. Starting with the traditional nonlinear grey Bernoulli model, in this paper, we expand the development coefficient a and grey action quantity b, propose a new self-adaptive time-varying grey Bernoulli prediction model, deduce the time response formula of the model, and explore the relationship between model parameters and model accuracy. Then, the nonlinear parameter and power parameter coefficient of the new model are optimized by a genetic algorithm, and the effectiveness of the model is analyzed by the natural gas consumption of China, the United States, and Russia. The results show that, compared with other traditional grey prediction models, the new model has a better simulation effect, higher prediction accuracy, and stronger applicability. Meanwhile, the model was used to forecast the natural gas consumption of China, the United States, and Russia in the period from 2022 to 2026. The prediction results show that China's natural gas consumption will continue to steadily increase in the future, which is consistent with the global goal of adhering to the orderly development of natural gas. The prediction results can provide a theoretical basis for relevant departments to formulate relevant natural gas policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid permafrost thawing triggered by heat release from the buried warm-oil pipeline would result in the instability of the pipeline, posing a potential risk of an oil spill in permafrost regions. Therefore, how to precisely control the ground temperature to mitigate pipeline foundation permafrost from thawing is of significant importance. Thermosyphon is a widely-accepted and extensively-used countermeasure against permafrost thawing in permafrost engineering. This paper presents 3-year (2015–2018) monitored data of ground temperature and geophysical survey results conducted by electrical resistivity tomography in April 2018, to investigate the thermal stabilizing effect of thermosyphons installed nearby the China-Russia crude oil pipeline (CRCOP) and the influencing factors. Furthermore, numerical simulation tests were conducted to evaluate their long-term cooling applicability and to optimize their layout parameters. Field observations show that the thermosyphons can cool down and even freeze the thawed soil layers around the CRCOP, prohibiting the infiltration of water into the thawing front to some extent and effectively mitigating the rapid thawing of permafrost beneath the pipeline. The performance of the thermosyphons is greatly influenced by the method and time of thermosyphon installation, as well as layout parameters including the number and longitudinal spacing. Two pairs of thermosyphons with a shorter spacing are unable to control the thawing of the underlying permafrost due to the non-anticipated higher oil temperature, the thermal erosion of water ponding, and climate warming. The simulated results indicate that thermosyphons perform well in the first 5 years after installation. Thermosyphon lowers the mean annual temperature of soils surrounding it by about 2 and 1.4 times when the evaporator section length is increased by 50% and the longitudinal spacing is decreased by 0.5 m, respectively. The application of thermosyphons has proven its strength for thermally stabilizing the pipeline foundation permafrost along the CRCOP. • 3-year ground temperature data and geophysical survey results are presented. • Thermosyphon can mitigate the rapid thawing of permafrost beneath the pipeline. • Thermosyphons performs most significantly in the first five years. • Lengthening thermosyphon and decreasing spacings are favorable for the better cooling effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we examine patterns of self-reported diagnosis of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) and prevalences of algorithm/measured test-based, undiagnosed, and untreated NCDs in China, Ghana, India, Mexico, Russia, and South Africa. Nationally representative samples of older adults aged ≥50 years were analyzed from wave 1 of the World Health Organization's Study on Global Ageing and Adult Health (2007-2010; n = 34,149). Analyses focused on 6 conditions: angina, arthritis, asthma, chronic lung disease, depression, and hypertension. Outcomes for these NCDs were: 1) self-reported disease, 2) algorithm/measured test-based disease, 3) undiagnosed disease, and 4) untreated disease. Algorithm/measured test-based prevalence of NCDs was much higher than self-reported prevalence in all 6 countries, indicating underestimation of NCD prevalence in low- and middle-income countries. Undiagnosed prevalence of NCDs was highest for hypertension, ranging from 19.7% (95% confidence interval (CI): 18.1, 21.3) in India to 49.6% (95% CI: 46.2, 53.0) in South Africa. The proportion untreated among all diseases was highest for depression, ranging from 69.5% (95% CI: 57.1, 81.9) in South Africa to 93.2% (95% CI: 90.1, 95.7) in India. Higher levels of education and wealth significantly reduced the odds of an undiagnosed condition and untreated morbidity. A high prevalence of undiagnosed NCDs and an even higher proportion of untreated NCDs highlights the inadequacies in diagnosis and management of NCDs in local health-care systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The design and building of a pipeline in permafrost regions challenge engineers and scientists in many regards, and the geohazards resulting from the (differential) frost heaving and thaw settlement of the pipeline foundation soils present one of the most daunting tasks. The China–Russia Crude Oil Pipeline, a spur line from the Siberia–Pacific Pipeline System, presented unique scientific and engineering problems because of: 1) extensive presence of the more ice-rich permafrost in boreal forests and swamps; 2) an insistence on a buried construction mode because of concerns about the potential for frequent forest fires and other safety issues; 3) great uncertainties in the temperatures of oil being transported although the given estimated oil temperature of −6.4 to +3.6°C entering the Mo''he Pump Station, and the estimated oil temperatures could vary from about −6 to +10°C along the southward pipeline route; 4) the limited lead time for detailed surveys on engineering geology along the pipeline routes and for engineering design; 5) very much limited investment and a limited number of engineers experienced in designing and building a major pipeline in an area where about one-half of its length would be impacted by generally warm (−3 to 0°C) permafrost. Nevertheless, the pipeline engineers and permafrost scientists strived to economically build and satisfactorily operate the first major crude oil pipeline in the boreal ecosystem in China. The major results on the formation mechanisms and mitigative measures for the (differential) frost heave and thaw settlement were presented in the eight papers in this special issue on permafrost pipeline, and one additional paper on the Golmud–Lhasa Oil Products Pipeline on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau was also included. They may provide insights to the understanding of pipeline–permafrost interactions and benefit the future design and construction of pipelines in similar northern environments. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The thesis of this paper is that governments of some otherwise enlightened states are increasingly fearful of acknowledging the restraints imposed on them by existing international law. They are also reluctant to enter into new commitments by way of international conventions that would expand the reach of international law. The paper asks whether these fears are based on a true understanding of international law or on some distorted view of it. It will draw comparisons and some contrasts between Australia and the United States in their reactions to a number of recent events as well as to some enduring situations of contemporary relevance. Had time (and the limits of my research) permitted, one might also have examined public attitudes toward international law in China, Japan, and Russia in this context, where similar fears appear to be entertained. France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom, also enlightened states, appear by contrast to belong to a group more dedicated to international law. As Robert Kagan has recently remarked, the experience of two world wars at close quarters, and the formation of the European Union, have made the European countries more dedicated to process, where the United States is more interested in results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Focusing on the resilience of distinctive local consumption cultures, this paper challenges some of the more sweeping claims that have been advanced in the name of ‘globalization’. Thinking about a ‘globalizing’ rather than a fully ‘globalized’ world encourages us to examine the deeply contested nature of the concept and to explore the geographically uneven nature of recent economic, political and cultural transformations. This paper approaches globalization as a site of struggle rather than as an established fact, emphasizing the need for empirically grounded studies of the impact of ‘globalization’ on consumer cultures in different geographical contexts. The paper examines the way that producers have ‘customized’ their products for different markets (drawing on evidence from China and South Africa). It then reviews case study evidence from three contrasting consumption cultures: consumption and ‘public culture’ in India, ‘consumer nationalism’ in China, and ‘artful consumption’ in Russia. The paper concludes by identifying some current debates and outlining some directions for future research, including a re-emphasis on consumption and material culture; an exploration of consumption as social practice; the delineation of commodity-specific consumption cultures; and some reflections on the political, ethical and methodological issues that are being raised in contemporary consumption research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In permafrost regions, the soil settlement disaster owing to permafrost degradation has become one of the important reasons for buried warm-oil pipelines failure. In this paper, the 3D sequential thermo-mechanical coupled model is carried out to investigate the interaction between buried warm-oil pipeline and surrounding permafrost. The effects of parameters, including thaw-settlement coefficient, length of transition zone, diameter-thickness ratio and internal pressure, on the pipeline mechanical behavior are numerically investigated. Among them, the thaw-settlement coefficient and length of transition zone present more significant effects on the peak strain of the pipeline. In addition, the effects of insulation layer and two-phase closed thermosyphon (TPCT) on pipeline–soil interaction are investigated in thermal and mechanical fields. With no protective measure, the permafrost layer under pipeline will completely degrade in about 20 years with 0.33m/a. The pipeline is considered to reach failure limitation even within 10 years. However, under the influence of combined measure, the permafrost degradation rate is only about 1/10 of that without protective measure. The peak compressive strain is significantly lower than the critical compressive strain, and the pipeline remains safe for 50 years. Therefore, the combined measure is an ideal method for ensuring pipeline safety in permafrost regions. • Permafrost layer is well protected by the combined measure. • The TSC and the LTZ show significant effects on the peak strain of pipeline. • Pipeline remains safe for 50 years under the influence of combined measure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper takes both value-added trade and trade-implied CO 2 emission reduction responsibility into account, which constructs a unified conceptual framework to recalculate CO 2 emission reduction responsibility from the perspective of value-added trade. This allows policymakers to trace worldwide CO 2 emissions at multiple levels of trade, production, consumption, and shared principle alongside the world trade network. This paper employs the gross export decomposition methodology and the World Input-Output Database for calculations. Firstly, compared with traditional trade statistics, measuring embedded emissions in value-added trade can deduct the double-counted terms of CO 2 emissions due to intermediate products crossing several borders repeatedly. Secondly, the worldwide inter-country CO 2 emission footprints embedded in exports, imports, and net flows of value-added trade are traced in a geographical world map. It occurs that, China, the USA, Russia, and the EU are the top four largest emitters. Thirdly, network analysis is further utilized to capture bilateral implicit CO 2 emission relationships, e.g., the EU members' environmental impacts depend on intra-regional trade within the union. Finally, a comparison is made under three burden-sharing principles based on value-added trade. The shared responsibility offers a compromise between the producer's and the consumer's principle, which is considered to be fairer and more effective. • This paper calculates trade-implied CO 2 emission reduction responsibility from the perspective of value-added trade. • A gross export decomposition model is applied to deduct double-counted terms of implicit carbon embedded in traditional trade. • The worldwide inter-country CO 2 emission footprints are visualized. • Network analysis is conducted to identify the major carbon emitters and their complex relations. • Three burden-sharing criteria are computed through the statistics of value-added trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Testing ecological models involves using independent data on model performance, which can be difficult or practically impossible to obtain. Individual based models of forest dynamics, or gap models, simulate the change of forests by computing the annual growth, birth and death of each tree at a location in a forest. The models are relatively simple and simulate results that can be translated to multiple response scales: Individual plant growth, population birth-death processes, stand environmental dynamics ( e.g ., evapotranspiration, element cycling, heat flux, etc .), landscape processes, and regional and global change. This paper reviews some of the approaches applied to testing gap models. Then, it demonstrates the testing of the performance of an individual-based gap model of forest dynamics, FAREAST, through comparison against independent data from China and across Russia. As part of this model testing, biomass simulation output for 93 locations is compared to independent field-collected inventory-data from 44 Russian forests, which span a broad range of forest types across Russia. FAREAST captures biomass dynamics and stabilization at specific locations bracketing the measured values. At Changbai Mountain, the model accurately predicts the community dynamics of complex mixed forest types present along an elevational gradient, as well as the broad regional compositional patterns across China and Russia. Validation of regional detailed landscape dynamics shows the model performs with fidelity with an average R2 value of 0.74 for 87 comparisons and an average root mean square error of 10.8 tC ha −1. Performance of the model for historical conditions implies the model's applicability across a broad region and suggests the usefulness of a detailed model for evaluating forest change to management and changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Brazil, the Russian Federation, India, China and South Africa -- the countries known as BRICS -- are currently undergoing a deep epidemiological transition that is mainly driven by rapid economic growth and technological change. The changes being observed in the distribution of the burden of diseases and injuries -- such as recent increases in the incidence of road traffic injuries -- are matters of concern. BRICS may need stronger institutional capacity to address such changes in a timely way. In this paper, we present data on road traffic injuries in BRICS and illustrate the enormous challenge that these countries currently face in reducing the incidence of such injuries. There is an urgent need to improve road safety indicators in every country constituting BRICS. It is imperative for BRICS to invest in system-wide road safety interventions and reduce the mortality and morbidity from road traffic injuries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main purpose of this paper is to examine the National Defense Strategies of the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) in order to verify how the four countries evaluate the strategic landscape of this century, especially regarding the balance of power between the Great Powers, their immediate geographical surroundings and their relationship with the US. This work addresses specifically the similarities and differences among them and how these differences reflect in their respective defense policies. Among the four cases, the Brazilian one will be in especial focus. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Contemporary Chinese migration to Japan and Russia started almost simultaneously in the 1980s. Despite obvious differences between the two nations, the set of factors that preconditioned the start of migration was very similar. Over the past three decades, the Chinese community in Japan evolved greatly, integrating into the local society, while Chinese migrants in Russia continue to occupy the same niche. This paper explores the role of migration and domestic policies adopted by the two nations in the process of contemporary Chinese community's formation. Japan has clear economic and political goals and it constantly adjusts its policy toward different categories of migrants. Russia, however, demonstrates a contradictory approach to the issue of migration that has created barriers to incorporating the Chinese community and has generally had a negative effect on Chinese community as a whole. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the first half of the 20th century, sizeable Russian communities lived in a number of Chinese cities, including Harbin, Shanghai and Tientsin. The largest and most diverse of these was the community that grew up around Harbin in north China. By the mid 1920s, Harbin was home to one of the largest Russian diaspora communities in the world, with over 120,000 Russians and other nationalities from the former Tsarist Empire. Moreover, many Russians in Shanghai and Tientsin had links to Harbin, as their first place of domicile in China. By the late 1950s, political transformations in China had driven almost all these people elsewhere. But for many of them, their roots in China became a key aspect of their identity in emigration in their new diasporas. This paper explores the background to this unique community and the geo-political forces underpinning the various waves of migration of Russians into and out of Harbin. It analyses the complex issues of identity and citizenship Russians faced while living in Harbin, their fates determined at various points in time by the dominance of three powers - Russia, China and Japan. Drawing on the experience of my own family, whose life in Harbin and Manchuria spanned four generations over fifty years, it touches on the rich ethnic and cultural mix that lay beneath the surface of "Russian" Harbin, with particular reference to the Jewish community that once thrived there. Finally, it examines how the 'Harbintsy' perceive their identity in emigration and the recent changes in attitude towards them of the Chinese authorities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our paper provides a comparative perspective on the development of public primary education in four of the largest developing economies circa 1910: Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC). These four countries encompassed more than 50% of the world's population in 1910, but remarkably few of their citizens attended any school by the early 20th century. We present new, comparable data on school inputs and outputs for BRIC drawn from contemporary surveys and government documents. Recent studies emphasize the importance of political decentralization, and relatively broad political voice for the early spread of public primary education in developed economies. We identify the former and the lack of the latter to be important in the context of BRIC, but we also outline how other factors such as factor endowments, colonialism, serfdom, and, especially, the characteristics of the political and economic elite help explain the low achievement levels of these four countries and the incredible amount of heterogeneity within each of them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The Chinese-Russian Oil Pipeline (CROP), from Mohe to Daqing has a length of about 965km and traverses the Da Hinggan Mountains and part of Song(hua)-Nen(jiang) Plain in Northeastern China. This paper attempts to estimate some of the important elements concerning the environmental hazards and contingency plans along the pipeline. The first part reviews the potential impacts of the Mohe-Daqing Pipeline on the cold regions environment. It includes 1) the major environmental characteristics such as complicated permafrost, rugged terrain, harsh weather, and the diverse flora and fauna, vegetation the pipeline passes through; 2) the consideration of route selection; 3) potential environmental impacts of the CROP on the environmental factors; 4) countermeasures to alleviate changes to the local environment during the design, construction and operation stages. The second part presents the risk of oil spills, the subsequent environmental challenges after the start of operation of CROP, and contingency plans in response to potential oil spills. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The proposed China–Russia Crude Oil Pipeline (CRCOP) will be subjected to strong frost heave and thaw settlement of the surrounding soil as it traverses permafrost and seasonally frozen ground areas in Northeastern China. The freezing–thawing processes, the development of the maximum frozen cylinder in taliks and thawed cylinder in permafrost areas, and the variations in the maximum freezing depths under the pipeline in taliks and thawing depths in different permafrost regions near Mo''he station, the first pumping station in China, were studied in detail using numerical methods in this paper. The inlet oil temperature at Mo''he station was assumed to vary from 10 to −6°C in a sine wave form during the preliminary design phase. Research results showed that the freezing–thawing processes of soils surrounding the buried pipeline had distinct differences from those in the undisturbed ground profile in permafrost areas. In summer, there was downward thawing from the ground surface and upward and downward thawing from the pipeline''s surface once the temperature of the oil rose above 0°C. In winter, downward freezing began from the ground surface but upward and downward cooling of the cylinder around the pipeline didn''t begin until the temperature of the oil dropped below 0°C. However, in the undisturbed ground profile, downward thawing from the ground surface occurred in summer and downward freezing from the ground surface and upward freezing from the permafrost table occurred in winter. The maximum thawing depths and thawed cylinder around the pipeline in warm permafrost enlarged with elapsing time and decreasing water content of the soils. In taliks, the maximum freezing depths and frozen cylinder around the pipeline kept shrinking with elapsing time and increasing water content of the soils. The freezing–thawing processes and development of the thawed and frozen cylinders around the pipeline were muted by any insulation layer surrounding the pipeline. Insulation had better thermal moderating on the heat exchange between the pipeline and the surrounding soils during the early operating period. But its role slowly weakened after a long-term operating. Research results will provide the basis for assessment and forecasting of engineering geological conditions, analysis of mechanical stability of the pipeline, foundation design, and pipeline construction and maintenance. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The China–Russia Crude Oil Pipeline (CRCOP), 813mm in diameter, is designed to transport 603,000 barrels of Siberian crude oil per day across 1030km of frozen-ground. About 500 boreholes, with depths of 5 to 20m, were drilled and cored for analyses, and the frozen-ground conditions were evaluated. After detailed surveys and analyses of the permafrost conditions along the pipeline route, a conventional burial construction mode at a nominal depth of 1.5m was adopted. This paper discusses the principles and criteria for the zonation and assessment of the frozen-ground environments and conditions of engineering geology for the design, construction, and operation of the pipeline system based on an extensive and in-depth summary and analysis of the survey and exploration data. The characteristics of pipelining crude oil at ambient temperatures in the permafrost regions and the interactive processes between the pipeline and foundation soils were taken into account. Two zones of frozen-ground environment and conditions of engineering geology, i.e., seasonally-frozen-ground and permafrost, were defined on the basis of the regional distribution and differentiations in frozen-ground environments and conditions. Then, four subzones of the permafrost zone were classified according to the areal extent, taking into consideration the temperatures and thicknesses of permafrost, as well as changes in vegetation coverage. In the four subzones, 151 sections of engineering geology were categorized according to the ice/moisture contents of the permafrost, as well as the classes of frost-heaving and thaw-settlement potentials. These 151 sections are comprehensively summarized into four types for engineering construction and operation: good, fair, poor, and very poor, for overall conditions of engineering geology. The zonation, assessment principles and criteria have been applied in the design of the pipeline. They have also been used as the scientific bases for the construction, environmental management, operation and maintenance/contingency plans. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Even after the Russo-Japanese War, Manchuria remained the powder keg of East Asia. In the war’s aftermath, three empires, the Qing, the Russian and the Japanese, stationed their troops in Manchuria, in a struggle for military supremacy there. There has already been a considerable amount of research on these military activities. However, previous works have not discussed them from a triangular relationship. This paper contends that the history of modern East Asia cannot be understood until one examines the shift in the military balance in Manchuria from a triangular comparative point of view. The results of such examination show that, in Manchuria, each empire was unable to establish military domination alone, and therefore needed an alliance partner. During the Xinhai Revolution, the Russia-Japan ‘alliance’ wielded overwhelming military power against China. However, after the Russian Revolution in 1917, Japan renounced cooperation with a weakened Russia and built a new partnership with China to advance the Siberian intervention. The military triangle of Russia, China and Japan was unable to create a comprehensive regional security system in Manchuria because what was established was based on mutual distrust and fear. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Russia is a strategic partner for Europe, in particular in its space endeavour. However, in the past decade the Russian partner has significantly changed. Strengthened by a better economic situation, Russia is now reasserting strong ambitions, and its leadership aims to reaffirm the country''s position on the international scene. As a result, Russia''s international partnerships in the space field have evolved and the country has recently intensified relationships with China and India. This development has the potential to strongly impact Europe, its space activities and the relations between all those actors. This paper investigates the relations between Russia, India and China, their possible evolution and the consequences for Europe. It evaluates the potential impact on Europe''s space activities and on its cooperation with the Russian partner. It concludes with recommended actions to be taken by European decision-makers in order to maximise opportunities and minimise risks in this changing environment. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The China–Russia crude oil pipeline (CRCOP) traverses rivers, forests, and mountains over permafrost regions in northeastern China. Water accumulates beside the pipe embankment, which disturbs the hydrothermal balance of permafrost underlying the pipeline. Ground surface flows along the pipeline erode the pipe embankment, which threatens the CRCOP's operational safety. Additionally, frost heave and thaw settlement can induce differential deformation of the pipes. Therefore, it is necessary to acquire the spatial distribution of water features along the CRCOP, and analyze the various hazard probabilities and their controlling factors. In this paper, information regarding the permafrost type, buried depth of the pipe, soil type, landforms, and vegetation were collected along the CRCOP every 2 km. Ponding and erosive damage caused by surface flows were measured via field investigations and remote sensing images. Two hundred and sixty-four pond sites were extracted from Landsat 8 images, in which the areas of 46.8% of the ponds were larger than 500 m2. Several influential factors related to freeze–thaw hazards and erosive damage were selected and put into a logistic regression model to determine their corresponding risk probabilities. The results reflected the distributions, and forecasted the occurrences, of freeze–thaw hazards and erosive damage. The sections of pipe with the highest risks of freeze–thaw and erosive damage accounted for 2.4% and 6.7%, respectively, of the pipeline. Permafrost type and the position where runoff encounters the pipeline were the dominant influences on the freeze–thaw hazards, while the runoff–pipe position, buried depth of the pipe, and landform types played a dominant role in erosive damage along the CRCOP. Combined with the geographic information system (GIS), field surveys, image interpretation and model calculations are effective methods for assessing the various hazards along the CRCOP in permafrost regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Comparative evaluation of cross-boundary wetland protected areas is essential to underpin knowledge-based bilateral conservation policies and funding decisions by governments and managers. In this paper, wetland change monitoring for the Wusuli River Basin in the cross-boundary zone of China and Russia from 1990 to 2015 was quantitatively analyzed using Landsat images. The spatial-temporal distribution of wetlands was identified using a rule-based object-oriented classification method. Wetland dynamics were determined by combining annual land change area (ALCA), annual land change rate (ALCR), landscape metrics and spatial analysis in a geographic information system (GIS). A Mann–Kendall test was used to evaluate changing climate trends. Results showed that natural wetlands in the Wusuli River Basin have declined by 5625.76 km2 in the past 25 years, especially swamp/marsh, which decreased by 26.88%. Specifically, natural wetlands declined by 49.93% in the Chinese section but increased with an ALCA of 16.62 km2/y in the Russian section during 1990–2015. Agricultural encroachment was the most important reason for the loss and degradation of natural wetlands in the Wusuli River Basin, especially in China. Different population change trends and conservation policies in China and Russia affected natural wetland dynamics. The research offers an efficient and effective method to evaluate cross-boundary wetland change. This study provides important scientific information necessary for developing future ecological conservation and management of cross-boundary wetlands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]