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⑴ Background——China is the largest importer and fifth largest exporter of wood forest products, while the United States is the second largest importer and largest exporter of wood forest products in the world. Meanwhile, the US is the largest export and import trade partner of China’s wood forest products. The Sino-US trade friction initiated by the US in March 2018 involves the vast majority of wood forest products. Existing studies mainly focus on the impact of Sino-US trade friction on bilateral wood forest products trade and profit and loss, ignoring its overall impact on China’s international wood forest products trade. Measurement and analysis of the impact of Sino-US trade friction on China’s international trade of wood forest products is helpful for us to take corresponding measures to cope with the challenge of the Sino-US trade friction and ensure stable and healthy development of China’s wood forest products industry and international trade.⑵ Methods——From the three aspects of demand, supply and trade, 8 indicators that may have a great impact on import and 11 indicators that may have a great impact on export are selected. Based on the data from 2002 to 2017,the grey correlation analysis method is used to measure the grey correlation coefficient between different influencing factors and the import and export trade level of China’s overall wood forest products and the import and export trade level of the main wood forest products. Selecting strong correlation indicators to construct Multi-variable Grey Model MGM（1,N）,“Counterfactual reasoning method” is used to measure and analyze the impact of Sino-US trade friction since 2018 on the import and export of China’s wood forest products as a whole and the import and export of main wood forest products.⑶ Results——With the implementation of multiple rounds tariffs imposed by China and the US, under the dual effects of large country effect and the substitution effect of import and export markets, except for paper, paper products and wood products, trade amount and quantity of the import and export of China’s most wood forest products first increase and then decrease significantly. Further research shows that Sino-US trade friction significantly reduces the import cost of China’s main wood forest products, but has a large negative impact on China’s imports of logs and sawn timbers, it endangers China’s wood import safety, and worsens the export trade conditions of China’s main wood forest products, but the impact is quite different. China’s wooden furniture and plywood exports show a bad trend of an increase in export volume and a decrease in export prices. It can be seen that the profits from China’s wood forest products import trade increase significantly, while the profits from China’s wooden furniture and plywood export trade is damaged severely, and the export of China’s wooden furniture and plywood faces severe challenges.⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——China should recognize the positive and negative impacts of Sino-US trade friction, and accelerate the implementation of the “double cycle” strategy while continuing to strengthen the import diversification of logs and sawn timbers, reducing the high dependence on foreign timber resources and changing the export mode of “large quantity and low price” of Chinese wooden furniture and plywood. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Air cargo is an important strategic resource of country and plays an indispensable role in domestic and international trade. Scientific forecasting of air cargo demand is an important basis for airlines to make infrastructure planning and overall investment decisions. Aiming at the uncertainty of air cargo volume data, this paper introduced Bootstrap method for uncertainty estimation and proposed an interval prediction method based on decomposition integration from the practical needs. Specifically, this paper decomposed the historical data by Seasonal and Trend Decomposition using Loess (STL) method firstly, then forecasted the trend and seasonal components by Support Vector Regression (SVR) and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA), respectively. Thirdly, this paper extracted and resampled the white noise component by Bootstrap method. Finally, the prediction results were integrated and reconstructed with the processed white noise to quantify uncertainty using quantile construction intervals. The experimental results of cargo data from two hub airports in China show that the constructed interval can effectively quantify the uncertainty in combination with the predicted results, which provides a novel research idea for probabilistic interval prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As global climate governance has become a global concern, equilibrium and competition among countries have entered a new stage. Developed countries have tried to hedge emissions reduction investment through policy design. The United States and European countries are simultaneously working on the formulation of carbon tariff policies, with the intention of competing for the leading role in global climate governance. The Biden administration in the United States has frequently acted on climate policies, trying to avoid the restriction of a nationally unified carbon pricing and introducing a more subjective collection standard at the level of environmental bill formulation. The implementation of carbon tariff policies may cause changes in international political and economic patterns and stimulate confrontations between countries of the Global North and those of the Global South. In the meantime, these policies may deteriorate the terms of trade of developing countries and reduce the scale of international trade. Furthermore, they may affect the current pattern of global climate governance and intensify the game between countries of the Global North and those of the Global South. Finally, they may undermine the foundation of international cooperation and the external environment in China's climate field, reduce the scale of China's foreign trade and corporate competitiveness, and have a negative impact on China's industrial development and lowcarbon transformation. Active response is an important starting point for protecting China's domestic interests. This paper suggests that attention should be paid to: ① the consolidation of the South-South cooperation and competition for the voice of international climate rules based on the principle of 'common but differentiated responsibilities' (CDR); ② the strengthening of trade response, the formulation of carbon tariff response plans in advance, the intensification of policy tracking, research, and judgment, and the exploration of policy tools of carbon tariff countermeasures; ③ the optimization of the industrial layout, the deepening of the supply-side reform, the abandonment of the development mode of high energy consumption and high pollution, and the acceleration of green transformation and lowcarbon development; ④ the improvement of the carbon market system and mechanism by establishing a complete carbon emission accounting standard system, the optimization of the domestic carbon tax legal system as well as the collection and management mechanisms, and the improvement of China's carbon trading market system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the in-depth implementation of China’s One Belt One Road initiative and the signing of the RCEP, the position of ASEAN in China’s international trade is more prominent. In order to strengthen the economic and trade cooperation between Chongqing and ASEAN, and give full play to the leading role of Chongqing in promoting China’s One Belt One Road, this paper reviewed the trade development between Chongqing and ASEAN countries in the past 20 years, and found that the bilateral trade has experienced two stages of steady development and blowout growth, and showed three characteristics: rapid growth of trade volume, continuous narrowing of trade surplus and strengthening of complementarity of trade division. However, in the process of promoting the trade development between Chongqing and ASEAN, Chongqing also faces five problems: poor matching of cost-efficiency in transportation and logistics, relatively lagging function construction of opening platforms, insufficient comparative advantage of export commodity structure, poor channel of policy integration innovation and mutual recognition of standards, and large gap in the construction of urban international supporting system. Therefore, to further strengthen the economic and trade cooperation between Chongqing and ASEAN, the research suggests that measures should be taken from five aspects of “transportation connectivity, platform mutual construction and promotion, industry complementarity and mutual integration, policy exchange and mutual recognition, and city mutual integration and mutual learning”. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background--In Sino-US trade frictions, China imposed tariffs on some timber imports from the United States, which inhibited the import of American timber. With the abolition of tariffs, it will inevitably have an impact on the imports of China's sawn timber and log. ⑵ Methods--Based on the monthly data of sawn timber and log imports in China from January 2010 to February 2021. In this paper, the dynamic Rotterdam model is used to calculate the compensation price elasticity and non-compensation price elasticity of China's import demand for sawn timber and log from different countries. (3) Results--①In terms of the compensation cross-price elasticity of various wood products from different sources, the cross-price effects of wood products from different countries in the short / long term are all complementary. ②China's timber import elasticity of expenditure is remarkable, and sawn timber import market concentration will decline in the long term. In the future, China will increase imports of log from New Zealand, Russia and the United States, and the import market will be more concentrated. ③China's demand elasticity for American log imports is flexible, and China will greatly increase its imports of American log. In the long run, China will increase the import dependence on American log and sawn timber, especially on American log. ④ With the exception of Thailand sawn timber, China's self-price elasticity of imports of sawn timber and log from other countries is positive and inelastic, indicating a modest increase in China's import demand for these timber products as prices rise. ⑤The core competition of future timber market is not price competition, but market share. The core competition factors are stable supply-demand relationship and stable trade policy. ⑷ Conclusions and Discussions--With the increasingly prominent contradiction between supply and demand of sawn timber and log in China, timber import demand will continue to grow. In the long run, China will reduce imports of Russian sawn timber, and sawn timber import market concentration will decline. In terms of China's sawn timber and log import market, as China's demand for imported timber continues to increase, imported sawn timber and log products will appear Giffen effect. The core competitiveness of China's imported timber market is not price competition. The stable timber supply and stable timber trade policies of exporting countries have a greater impact on China's timber imports. In addition, China imposes tariffs on imports of U. S. timber in trade frictions, which have a significant trade inhibitory effect on imports of U. S. timber. In the long term, China will increase its dependence on imports of American timber, especially of American log. The concentration of raw wood import market will increase. If the concentration of raw wood import market is too high, the timber exporters will implement the prohibition of logging and export restrictions, and China's raw wood import will be seriously affected. Therefore, China needs to adjust the source structure of log import and disperse the risk of log import. Although the concentration of sawn timber import market will decline, the risk of sawn timber import market is still large. In order to ensure the stable supply of timber resources in China and reduce trade risk, the diversification of import market should be realized. It is necessary to pay attention to measuring the export output elasticity of timber exporting countries, evaluating and tracking the supply security of major timber exporting countries, and reducing the import risks of log and sawn timber. Finally, we should strengthen foreign trade negotiations with timber exporters, establish good foreign trade relations, and promote the stability of the timber trade environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The usage and maximum residue limits (MRLs) for plant growth regulators (PGRs) in foodstuffs are social issues widely concerned by the public and various stakeholders. This paper overviews the latest updates on PGRs in the Chinese national food safety standard, MRLs for pesticides in foods (GB 2763—2019), and conducted a matching analysis with domestic PGR registration and application. Furthermore, the PGR MRLs among China, Codex Alimentarius Commission (CAC), USA, Japan and EU were compared. The main findings and suggestions were given in this review. Firstly, the domestic standard covers almost half (41.7%) registered PGR active ingredients, which surpasses CAC.Secondly, the domestic standard basically contains staple crops, but the product categories and their classification stipulated in the standard are not as rich and detailed as those in EU and Japan. Especially for minor crops and foodstuffs of animal origin. The standard system for PGRs still needs to be further improved. Thirdly, the domestic standard is not aligned to international standards in some extent, and may have less influence on international trade. Finally, suggestions were put forward to improve the MRL standard system of PGRs, such as synchronising the MRL standard with the pesticide registration, and acting on the international convention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stable supply of timber is necessary to maintain international market share of timber forest products. As the largest exporter of timber forest products, China faces the challenge that the supply of the timber reduces continuously in recent years. Facing the complex and volatile situation, it's of critical significance for China to make corresponding policy and long-term planning. Based on industry life cycle theory and Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA), this paper researched the development stages and spatial distribution characteristics of timber industry using provincial timber yield data from 1954 to 2014. The data were collected from China Forestry Statistical Yearbook. Gompertz model was applied to measure the stages of timber industry development, and ESDA methods including space Gini coefficient, local Getis-Ord index and center-of-gravity approach were applied to show the temporal and spatial change of timber industry. The results are as follows: 1) Gompertz model [lnQt=8.763 2+0.950 1t× (-1.077 6)] showed China’s timber industry is in the growth phase of cyclical fluctuation. 2) ESDA showed significant regional transferring trend and regional gathering characteristics of the industry. Especially after 2000, the local Getis-Ord index showed that the collective forest area in South China became the hot spot of timber production. 3) According to center-of-gravity approach, the gravity center of the industry migrated from Northeast China to Southwest China during the last 60 years. And it could be divided into three periods according to the driving forces of timber industry development, economy-drive stage (1954-1978), stalemate stage of economy-drive and ecology-drive (1978-2000) and ecology-drive stage (since 2000). The spatiotemporal evolution of timber industry can be seen as the result of the balance between economic force and ecology force. According to the research results, some suggestions were given, such as giving priority to the cultivation of forest resources, releasing the quota policy, and turning to social services instead of administrative supervision. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]