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Background: The climate crisis is a significant risk to the health and wellbeing of children, young people, and future generations. While there are calls for children and young people's engagement in climate decision making, current power structures limit their participation. This paper aimed to understand children's perspectives about the impact of the climate crisis on their futures, their ability to influence climate decisions, and strategies and mechanisms to facilitate their greater engagement in decisions made about the climate crisis., Methods: Online in-depth interviews were conducted with n = 28 children (aged 12-16 years) across Australia. Photo elicitation techniques were used to prompt discussion about how the climate crisis impacted their futures, their ability to influence climate decisions, and strategies and mechanisms to engage them in climate decision making. A reflexive approach to thematic analysis was used to construct three themes from data. Images were analysed for ascribed meanings., Results: First, participants stated that they and future generations will inherit the climate crisis from older generations, specifically decision makers. Second, they described a need to address a range of age-related barriers that limit children and young people's engagement in climate decision making, including perceptions about their capabilities. Finally, they discussed strategies and mechanisms to embed children and young people's perspectives within climate decision making, including at civic and political levels., Conclusions: Children and young people have the right to be involved in decisions made about the climate crisis which significantly impact their futures, including their health and wellbeing. They argue for structural changes to embed their views in climate decision making, and describe a range of engagement strategies and mechanisms to structure their perspectives and knowledge with decision making processes. Furthermore, genuine involvement of children and young people in climate discussions must avoid youthwashing and tokenistic participation. The public health community can help address barriers to youth participation in climate action and should actively engage and collaborate with children and young people to facilitate their political and democratic influence over the climate crisis. This involves making room and creating an accessible seat at the decision making table to ensure their perspectives are embedded in climate decisions., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Understanding carbon emissions through the lens of population mobility is crucial for addressing sustainability challenges and fostering economic development. This study aims to investigate the influence of population mobility on carbon emissions in Australia, providing insights for targeted policy interventions. Utilizing panel datasets spanning from 2007 to 2020, encompassing both international and domestic migration in Australia, empirical analyses were conducted. The focus was on assessing the relationship between population mobility and regional carbon emissions. The study reveals distinct effects of domestic and international population mobility on carbon emissions. Domestic mobility demonstrates a negative correlation, whereas international mobility shows a positive association with carbon emissions. Moreover, significant regional heterogeneity in carbon emissions is observed, influenced by economic development and population size variations between eastern and western regions. These findings underscore the importance of tailored emission reduction strategies based on the nature of population mobility. By elucidating the intricate dynamics between mobility patterns and carbon emissions, this study contributes to a nuanced understanding of CO2 emission trends, informing policy decisions amidst the challenges posed by global climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a method to analyze and improve the set of equations constituting a rainfall‐runoff model structure based on a combination of a data assimilation algorithm and polynomial updates to the state equations. The method, which we have called "Data Assimilation Informed model Structure Improvement" (DAISI) is generic, modular, and demonstrated with an application to the GR2M model and 201 catchments in South‐East Australia. Our results show that the updated model generated with DAISI generally performed better for all metrics considered included Kling‐Gupta Efficiency, NSE on log transform flow and flow duration curve bias. In addition, the elasticity of modeled runoff to rainfall is higher in the updated model, which suggests that the structural changes could have a significant impact on climate change simulations. Finally, the DAISI diagnostic identified a reduced number of update configurations in the GR2M structure with distinct regional patterns in three sub‐regions of the modeling domain (Western Victoria, central region, and Northern New South Wales). These configurations correspond to specific polynomials of the state variables that could be used to improve equations in a revised model. Several potential improvements of DAISI are proposed including the use of additional observed variables such as actual evapotranspiration to better constrain internal model fluxes. Plain Language Summary: This paper presents a data‐driven method to improve rainfall‐runoff models used to generate future water resources scenario in climate change studies. The method, which we have called "Data Assimilation Informed model Structure Improvement" (DAISI) is generic, modular, and demonstrated with an application to monthly streamflow simulations over a large data set of catchments in South‐East Australia. Our results show that DAISI improves model performance for a wide range of metrics and increases the sensitivity of the model to climate inputs, which is critical in climate change scenarios. Finally, the improvements identified by DAISI take a simple mathematical form with distinct regional patterns in three sub‐regions of the study domain (Western Victoria, central region, and Northern New South Wales). Several improvements of DAISI are discussed including the inclusion of additional observed variables such as evapotranspiration to better constrain model simulations. Key Points: Data Assimilation Informed model Structure Improvement method diagnoses hydrological model structures by combining data assimilation with a polynomial update of state equationsThe method was applied to the GR2M rainfall‐runoff model with significantly improved streamflow simulations in 201 Australian catchmentsThe method identified updates to state equations with marked regional characteristics that could guide future improvement of GR2M [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: Invasive alien species, such as Carpomya vesuviana Costa (Diptera: Tephritidae), threaten global biodiversity, agriculture, and public health. This study used advanced modelling techniques to predict the potential distribution of C. vesuviana and understand its environmental impacts. The findings suggest that climate change is driving the geographic expansion of C. vesuviana, primarily in Asia, Africa, and Australia. The species is projected to shift poleward by the 2090s, as the species will have shifted to the polar regions under the influence of climate change. Effective management strategies are crucial to mitigate the environmental and health impacts of its expansion. Invasive alien species (IAS) significantly affect global native biodiversity, agriculture, industry, and human health. Carpomya vesuviana Costa, 1854 (Diptera: Tephritidae), a significant global IAS, affects various date species, leading to substantial economic losses and adverse effects on human health and the environment. This study employed biomod2 ensemble models, multivariate environmental similarity surface and most dissimilar variable analyses, and ecological niche dynamics based on environmental and species data to predict the potential distribution of C. vesuviana and explore the environmental variables affecting observed patterns and impacts. Compared to native ranges, ecological niche shifts at invaded sites increased the invasion risk of C. vesuviana globally. The potential geographical distribution was primarily in Asia, Africa, and Australia, with a gradual increase in suitability with time and radiation levels. The potential geographic distribution centre of C. vesuviana is likely to shift poleward between the present and the 2090s. We also show that precipitation is a key factor influencing the likely future distribution of this species. In conclusion, climate change has facilitated the expansion of the geographic range and ecological niche of C. vesuviana, requiring effective transnational management strategies to mitigate its impacts on the natural environment and public health during the Anthropocene. This study aims to assess the potential threat of C. vesuviana to date palms globally through quantitative analytical methods. By modelling and analysing its potential geographic distribution, ecological niche, and environmental similarities, this paper predicts the pest's dispersal potential and possible transfer trends in geographic centres of mass in order to provide prevention and control strategies for the global date palm industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses a 30 m record of valley alluviation in the Lockyer Creek, a major tributary of the mid-Brisbane River in Southeast Queensland, to document the timing and nature of Quaternary fluvial response. A combination of radiocarbon and optically stimulated luminescence dating reveals a sequence of major cut and fill episodes. The earliest aggradation phase is represented by a basal gravel unit, dating to ~220 ka (marine isotope sub-stage 7d), and although little evidence supports higher fluvial discharges during MIS 5, a MIS 3 fluvial episode characterised by incision and aggradation dates to ~60 ka. A penultimate phase of incision to a depth of 30 m prior to ~14 ka saw the lower Lockyer occupy its current position within the valley floor. The Lockyer Creek shows evidence of only minor fluvial activity during MIS 2, suggesting a drier LGM climate. The appearance of alternating fine- and coarse-grained units at about 2 ka is notable and may represent higher-energy flood conditions associated with a strengthening of El Niño Southern Oscillation activity as observed in the flood of 2011. The aggradation rate for this Holocene floodplain unit is ~11 times higher than the long-term rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Animals on a grand scale are victims of climate change and of natural disaster. With no voice within human cultures, their plight can be silenced and forgotten once an extreme weather event is over and when media coverage of the devastation has ceased. The creative arts have an important role to play in raising public awareness of and empathy for animals impacted by natural disaster. This paper presents a critical discourse analysis of the Australian play Fire by Scott Alderdice (2017), framed by Animal Studies perspectives. The voices of the animals in Fire, as expressed through language -- dialogue and narration -- are the focus of the analysis to determine how the play engages in the concepts of considering other-than-human interests; imagining and representing animals and their significance; personifying species' presence using human speech to offset facelessness; and inspiring humans to take responsibility in this time of climate crisis and natural disaster. Fire provides an exemplar for theatrical expression giving voice to animals in times of crisis. An examination of the narration and dialogue of the animal characters reveals a respectful representation of native Australian animals, who are shown to be sentient and social beings intimately entwined with the environment in which they live. The language use by the animals throughout elicits recognition and empathy and subsequently feelings of grief and of guilt. The play inspires humans to take responsibility by considering animals' perspectives and interests; understanding their significance in the world; and performing our role to protect the natural environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

South eastern Australia is a global warming hotspot, and is also home to ~70% of Australia's population and one of Australia's largest fisheries—the South East Scalefish and Shark Fishery. This fishery spans shelf to deep waters, subtropical to temperate waters, employs many gears, and interacts with over 100 species. Despite following best practice fisheries management principles, including taking an ecosystem perspective to overall fisheries interactions, management interventions have failed to arrest or recover the decline of some focal species. Using an Atlantis ecosystem model developed for the fishery over the past 20 years, this paper presents simulations that suggest climate change may be a major contributor to the trajectories seen for a number of species—such as jackass morwong (Nemadactylus macropterus), blue warehou (Seriolella brama), and gemfish (Rexea solandri). This kind of climate influence poses many challenges for fisheries management into the future, raising questions about what to do when climate change undermines or overrides fisheries management actions and objectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Natural resource management in Australia is beset with 'wicked' problems: diminishing biodiversity, increasing soil erosion, spreading soil salinity and global climate change all impact private landholders across rural Australia. These problems highlight the complexity of biodiversity conservation, and the need for inclusive, respectful approaches that enable the participation of rural communities, private landholders and government agencies to effectively manage biodiversity on public and private lands. To address these problems, some landholders, rural communities and other stakeholders are seeking evidence‐based solutions through directly applicable research. In this paper, we identify current barriers to such research and highlight principles and processes for co‐designing and managing research based on mutual trust, respect, power sharing and acceptance of various knowledge systems, as embodied in the theory of reconciliation ecology. We suggest that a 'community of practice' approach could assist in establishing effective deliberative relations as a basis for active collaboration in natural resource management research to address these complex problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Future water availability is threatened by changes in both climate and water demand. Water rights with differing priorities are an important foundation of demand‐side tools (e.g., buyback, water pricing, and water market) to improve water use efficiency and reduce water scarcity, especially in highly regulated river systems. This paper assesses the impact of climate change on water yields from carryover storage with dual‐priority (high/low) water rights allocation systems using a simple and rapid analytical method. The method characterizes reservoir inflows using readily available flow characteristics (annual mean and Cv). We evaluate this method against a water resource simulation model in the Goulburn River basin, Australia. In general, our analytical "dual‐priority" Gould‐Dincer model reproduces water allocation estimates from the simulation model. We further demonstrate this method across 12 Australian catchments to investigate the climate change impact on "dual‐priority" water rights yield at the catchment scale. The hydrological projections show decreasing mean annual runoff and increasing annual runoff variability, except for some catchments in northern Australia. Water yield for high‐priority water rights (HPWRs) and low‐priority water rights (LPWRs) decreases for most catchments except for some catchments in northern Australia. South Dandalup in the 2070s (RCP8.5) shows the largest percentage decrease in HPWR and LPWR yield (about −53.53% and −56.81%, respectively). Our results show that changes in mean annual inflow have a more significant influence on water yield of HPWR and LPWR than Cv. Overall, the simple method provides a rapid assessment of water yields with "dual‐priority" water rights which is applicable across multiple sites at regional or even global scale. Key Points: A simple analytical method is used to evaluate the impact of climate change on the yield of "dual‐priority" water rightsWater yield for both high‐ and low‐priority water rights generally decreases under future climate in AustraliaFuture change in mean annual inflow has a more significant influence on water yield than change in annual flow variability [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Societal Impact Statement: Rice wild relatives (RWR) provide valuable genetic resources for modern rice breeding, yet knowledge gaps constrain their conservation and further utilization. To address these gaps, the potential distributions of 22 RWR taxa were modeled, and their conservation statuses were assessed. Most taxa were identified as medium priority for further conservation. Further ex‐situ collecting hotspots are in Southeast and South Asia, Northern Australia, West Africa, and tropical Americas, while habitat protection lies in Southeast and South Asia, Northern Australia, and West Africa. Climate change may shift equatorial habitats to higher latitudes and mountain habitats to higher altitudes. Summary: Rice wild relatives (RWR) provide valuable genetic resources for modern rice breeding. However, knowledge gaps on their geographic distributions and conservation status constrain their conservation and further utilization.To fill these critical gaps, we modeled the potential distributions of 22 RWR taxa under current climate scenarios, assessed their conservation status, both ex situ (in genebanks or botanical gardens) and in situ (in protected areas), and examined changes in taxa richness of RWR in predicted areas under future climate scenarios.The RWR were primarily distributed in tropical Asia to tropical Australia, tropical Africa, and South and Central America. We identified 4 out of 22 taxa as high priority (HP) for further conservation action and 18 taxa as medium priority (MP).Hotspots requiring further collecting for ex situ conservation are concentrated in Southeast and South Asia, Northern Australia, West Africa, and tropical Americas. Meanwhile, habitat protection should be enhanced in Southeast and South Asia, Northern Australia, and West Africa. Under future climate change, suitable habitats near the equator are expected to shift toward higher latitudes and some in lower‐latitude basins may become unsuitable due to excessive heat, resulting in decreased taxa richness in these areas. Additionally, suitable habitats in high mountain areas may shift to higher altitudes, potentially augmenting taxa richness in the highlands. Our findings provide vital insights to guide future rescue conservation efforts for RWR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analysis of observations, reanalysis, and model simulations, including those using machine learning methods specifically designed for regime identification, has revealed changes in aspects of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) circulation and Australian climate and extremes over the last half-century that indicate transitions to new states. In particular, our analysis shows a dramatic shift in the metastability of the SH climate that occurred in the late 1970s, associated with a large-scale regime transition in the SH atmospheric circulation, with systematic changes in the subtropical jet, blocking, zonal winds, and storm tracks. Analysis via nonstationary clustering reveals a regime shift coincident with a sharp transition to warmer oceanic sea surface temperatures and increased baroclinicity in the large scales of the Antarctic Circumpolar Circulation (ACC), extending across the whole hemisphere. At the same time, the background state of the tropical Pacific thermocline shoaled, leading to an increased likelihood of El Niño events. The SH climate shift in the late 1970s is the first hemispheric regime shift that can be directly attributed to anthropogenic climate change. These changes in dynamics are associated with additional regional tipping points, including reductions in mean and extreme rainfall in south-west Western Australia (SWWA) and streamflow into Perth dams, and also with increases in mean and extreme rainfall over northern Australia since the late 1970s. The drying of south-eastern Australia (SEA) occurred against a background of accelerating increases in average and extreme temperatures across the whole continent since the 1990s, implying further inflection points may have occurred. Analysis of climate model simulations capturing the essence of these observed shifts indicates that these systematic changes will continue into the late 21st century under high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Here, we review two decades of work, revealing for the first time that tipping points characteristic of regime transitions are inferred to have already occurred in the SH climate system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: Simple Summary: In northern Australia, large native herbivorous mammals (weighing over 1000 kg) disappeared about 46 kya, and they have been replaced in the last 200 years by a range of introduced mammalian herbivores up to 1000 kg in bodyweight. Only one native herbivore has an adult bodyweight approaching 100 kg, and for the past 200 years, the total biomass of introduced domestic and wild vertebrate herbivores has massively exceeded that of native herbivorous species. Following a comprehensive review, we conclude that the current guild of native and introduced mammalian herbivores differentially utilises the landscape ecologically. However, climate- and anthropogenically related changes due to fire, drought, flooding, predation and introduced weeds are likely to have significant impacts on the trajectory of their relative ecological roles and populations. Given their differing ecological and dietary characteristics, against this backdrop, it is unclear what the potential impact of the dispersal of deer species could have in northern Australia. There is a dearth of supporting evidence to inform appropriate sustainable management should deer range expansion occur. We identify suitable research required to fill the identified knowledge gaps. We explored the ecological and historical factors that led to formation of the unique guild of native and introduced mammalian herbivores between 5 and 1000 kg in northern Australia. Following the disappearance of large native herbivores about 46 kya, and until the arrival of Europeans and their livestock, the only herbivorous mammals were mid-sized endemic marsupial macropods, which continued to utilise the same vegetation as their much larger former neighbours. Only one species of contemporary native herbivore has an adult bodyweight approaching 100 kg, and for the past 150–200 years, the total biomass of introduced domestic and wild vertebrate herbivores has massively exceeded that of native herbivorous species. We conclude that the current guild of native and introduced mammalian herbivores differentially utilises the landscape ecologically. However, climate- and anthropogenically related changes due to fire, drought, flooding, predation and introduced weeds are likely to have significant impacts on the trajectory of their relative ecological roles and populations. Given their differing ecological and dietary characteristics, against this backdrop, it is unclear what the potential impact of the dispersal of deer species could have in northern Australia. We hence focus on whether sufficient knowledge exists against which the potential impacts of the range expansion of three deer species can be adequately assessed and have found a dearth of supporting evidence to inform appropriate sustainable management. We identify suitable research required to fill the identified knowledge gaps. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The biogeographical range shift of insect pests is primarily governed by temperature. However, the range shift of seasonal long-distance migratory insects may be very different from that of sedentary insects. Nilaparvata lugens (BPH), a serious rice pest, can only overwinter in tropical-to-subtropical regions, and some populations migrate seasonally to temperate zones with the aid of low-level jet stream air currents. This study utilized the CLIMEX model to project the overwintering area under the climate change scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, both in 2030s and 2080s. The overwintering boundary is predicted to expand poleward and new overwintering areas are predicted in the mid-latitude regions of central-to-eastern China and mid-to-southern Australia. With climate change, the habitable areas remained similar, but suitability decreased substantially, especially in the near-equatorial regions, owing to increasing heat stress. The range shift is similar between RCP2.6-2030s, RCP2.6-2080s, and RCP8.5-2030s, but extreme changes are projected under RCP8.5-2080s with marginal areas increasing from 27.2 to 38.8% and very favorable areas dropping from 27.5 to 3.6% compared to the current climate. These findings indicate that climate change will drive range shifts in BPH and alter regional risks differently. Therefore, international monitoring programs are needed to effectively manage these emerging challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We assess the impact of three bias correction approaches on present day means and extremes, and climate change signal, for six climate variables (precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature, radiation, vapour pressure and mean sea level pressure) from dynamically downscaled climate simulations over Queensland, Australia. Results show that all bias‐correction methods are effective at removing systematic model biases, however the results are variable and season‐dependent. Importantly, our results are based on fully independent cross‐validation, an advantage over similar studies. Linear scaling preserves the climate change signals for temperature, while quantile mapping and the distribution‐based transfer function modify the climate change signal and patterns of change. The Perkins score for all the values above the 95th percentile and below the 5th percentile was used to evaluate how well the climate model matches the observational data. Bias correction improved Perkins score for extremes for some variables and seasons. We rank the bias‐correction methods based on the Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) score calculated during the validation period. We find that linear scaling and empirical quantile mapping are the best approaches for Queensland for mean climatology. On average, bias correction led to an improvement in the KGE score of 23% annually. However, in terms of extreme values, quantile mapping and statistical distribution‐based transfer function approaches perform best, and linear scaling tends to perform worst. Our results show that, except linear scaling, all approaches impact the climate change signal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While winegrowers usually want to achieve consistent yield targets, there is a high degree of yield and price (and hence gross revenue) variability in winegrape production. The aim of this study was to determine whether there are differences in yield and revenue variability across climates, varieties, and regions in Australia. This was performed by estimating statistical models of the impact of these three variables on the coefficient of variation of yield and gross revenue per hectare. The results suggest that hotter and drier regions exhibit lower interannual yield variability, something that in the past may have been largely explained by the use of irrigation, but which may change in the future with climate change and higher water prices. The results also showed that there are sometimes differences in yield and revenue variability, not only across regions, but also between varieties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has resulted in a worldwide increase in intensity and frequency of extreme weather events including bushfires. Previous research has shown that communities often do not engage in disaster preparedness, even when sufficient education and resources are provided. With the projected increase in natural disasters, preparedness is paramount, and more research is needed to gain an understanding into what impacts community preparedness in the face of climate change. This study investigated one rural Australian community's preparedness for the 2019–2020 bushfires. Thirteen Australian adults who resided within a small rural community in New South Wales during the 2019–2020 bushfires participated in semi-structured interviews. Data were analysed using inductive thematic analysis. Participants reported being unprepared for the 2019–2020 bushfires and that the community has started to prepare for future bushfires. However, they also described a belief in 'climate cycles' rather than climate change, limiting engagement in preparedness for future hazards. Participants also reported that they did not talk about the 2019–2020 bushfires, although described experiencing residual anxiety. Recommendations included support needed for rural communities to help with future preparedness efforts and mental health symptoms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human actions are causing widespread increases in fire size, frequency, and severity in diverse ecosystems globally. This alteration of fire regimes is considered a threat to numerous animal species, but empirical evidence of how fire regimes are shifting within both threatened species' ranges and protected areas is scarce, particularly at large spatial and temporal scales. We used a big data approach to quantify multidecadal changes in fire regimes in southern Australia from 1980 to 2021, spanning 415 reserves (21.5 million ha) and 129 threatened species' ranges including birds, mammals, reptiles, invertebrates, and frogs. Most reserves and threatened species' ranges within the region have experienced declines in unburnt vegetation (≥30 y without fire), increases in recently burnt vegetation (≤5 y since fire), and increases in fire frequency. The mean percentage of unburnt vegetation within reserves declined from 61 to 36% (1980 to 2021), whereas the mean percentage of recently burnt vegetation increased from 20 to 35%, and mean fire frequency increased by 32%, with the latter two trends primarily driven by the record- breaking 2019 to 2020 fire season. The strongest changes occurred for high- elevation threatened species, and reserves of high elevation, high productivity, and strong rainfall decline, particularly in the southeast of the continent. Our results provide evidence for the widely held but poorly tested assumption that threatened species are experiencing widespread declines in unburnt habitat and increases in fire frequency. This underscores the imperative for developing management strategies that conserve fire- threatened species in an increasingly fiery future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A reliable understanding of linkages between meteorological, hydrological and agricultural droughts (MD, HD, and AD respectively) is crucial to building resilience and planning for future climate changes. Despite Australia being prone to severe droughts, lagtimes of propagation (and recovery), from meteorological to hydrological and agricultural droughts across its large hydroclimatic regions, are poorly understood. Therefore, we investigate the characteristics of drought propagation and recovery time lags for droughts of four timescales and a combination of drought onset and cessation criteria in 407 unregulated catchments within six major precipitation zones across the country. We find that the propagation and recovery lags depend on climatic conditions, drought criteria and timescales. The median of catchment average propagation times from MD to HD across Australia varied from 0.8 to 1.7 months for 1‐month timescales, increasing to 2.2–5.0 months for 12‐month timescales. The corresponding recovery lagtimes were 1.3–3.7 and 1.7–7.0 months respectively. Similarly, the median of catchment average propagation times from MD to AD ranged from 0.8 to 1.9 months for 1‐month timescales, increasing to 0.6–5.0 months for 12‐month. The corresponding recovery lagtimes were 0.7–2.8 and 0.3–8.7 months respectively. For droughts of smaller timescales, propagation and recovery lags are linearly correlated with recovery lagtimes consistently greater than propagation times. However, as the timescale increases, these relationships weaken suggesting effects of other catchment attributes (e.g., groundwater contributions) on lag relationships. Plain Language Summary: The primary focus of the research is to investigate the time delay between the occurrence of the lack of precipitation (meteorological droughts) and its subsequent impact on river flow (hydrological drought) and soil moisture (agricultural drought). Understanding these delays is crucial for drought planning and management. This study uses observed precipitation, river flow, and satellite‐based soil moisture data spanning over 40 years across six major precipitation zones within Australia. The delays between drought types (meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural) vary depending on the specific location within Australia. The criteria used to define the onset and end of droughts, as well as the drought duration, also influence the observed delays. The average delay from meteorological to hydrological or agricultural droughts increases with longer timescales. For example, hydrological droughts measured on 1‐month timescale have shorter delays (0.8–1.7 months), while 12‐month droughts have longer delays (2.2–5 months). Similarly, shorter droughts have shorter recovery times, while longer droughts have longer recovery times. For shorter timescale droughts, there is a clear relationship between the delays with end delays consistently greater than the start delays. However, as droughts become larger and more prolonged, the relationship weakens, suggesting the influence of other catchment attributes. Key Points: Drought propagation and recovery behaviors for a large sample of catchments under varied climatic zones within Australia are investigatedPropagation and recovery lag relationships are well‐defined for shorter droughts but are increasingly indefinable for longer droughtsPropagation (TP) and recovery lags (TR) depend on drought severity with shorter TP to milder droughts and longer TR to milder droughts [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although Australia remains committed to the Paris Agreement and to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions, it was late in joining the 2021 Global Methane Pledge. Finding suitable methane (CH4) mitigation solutions for Australia's livestock industry should be part of this journey. Based on a 2020–2023 systematic literature review and multicriteria decision approach, this study analyses the available strategies for the Australian beef and dairy sector under three scenarios: baseline, where all assessment criteria are equally weighted; climate emergency, with a significant emphasis on CH4 reduction for cattle in pasture and feedlot systems; and conservative, where priority is given to reducing costs. In total, 46 strategies from 27 academic publications were identified and classified as 'Avoid', 'Shift', or 'Improve' with respect to their impact on current CH4 emissions. The findings indicate that 'Avoid' strategies of conversion of agricultural land to wetlands, salt marshes, and tidal forest are most efficient in the climate emergency scenario, while the 'Improve' strategy of including CH4 production in the cattle breeding goals is the best for the conservative and baseline scenarios. A policy mix that encourages a wide range of strategies is required to ensure CH4 emission reductions and make Australia's livestock industry more sustainable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The cool temperate rainforests of eastern Australia are at risk from anthropogenic climate change with predicted changes in temperature, rainfall, severe weather, basal cloud layer, and droughts. Phenology and litter production are fundamental reproductive and growth processes to document in any ecosystem, yet very few long-term studies exist in Australian rainforests. In this study, long-term datasets are used to describe different phenological and litter production behaviours of tree species in a Nothofagus cool temperate rainforest in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, analysing seasonal and inter-annual climate drivers. Leaf fall at the community level was mostly influenced by Nothofagus moorei, driven by temperature and wind speed, and Ceratopetalum apetalum, driven by temperature, rainfall, and solar radiation. Mean dates of leaf fall at the community level were found to be advancing, correlated with an advance in solar radiation. We also analysed in detail the flowering behaviour of the dominant canopy tree species, N. moorei, which masts with a mean inter-flowering period of 3-4 years in 65% of flowering events. Three of the studied species presented mast flowering, C. apetalum, N. moorei, and Orites excelsus; however, they did not mast in the same years. All species presented strong seasonality in their phenological activity, but seasonality peaked in different months, and were driven by varied climate variables. Supra-annual peaks of flowering and fruiting did not occur at the same time for all species, and climate drivers of inter-annual phenological behaviour were different for each species. Our results show that projected changes in climate will affect species from cool temperate rainforests differently, affecting not only biomass production, but also species reproductive output and forest dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In drought-prone Australia, multi-year droughts have detrimental impacts on both the natural environment and human societies. For responsible water management, we need a thorough understanding of the full range of variability in multi-year droughts and how this might change in a warming world. But research into the long-term frequency, persistence, and severity of Australian droughts is limited. This is partly due to the length of the observational record, which is short relative to the timescales of hydroclimatic variability and hence may not capture the range of possible variability. Using simulations of Australian precipitation over the full past millennium (850–2000), we characterise the nature of multi-year meteorological droughts across Australia and include a particular focus on the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB), the largest agricultural region in Australia. We find that simulated Australian droughts in the 20th century (1900–2000) are within the bounds of pre-industrial natural variability in terms of drought intensity, severity, and frequency. A tendency for droughts to last longer in southwestern and eastern Australia (including the MDB) in the 20th century, compared with the pre-industrial period, suggests an emerging anthropogenic influence, consistent with projected rainfall changes in these regions. Large volcanic eruptions tend to promote drought-free intervals in the MDB. Model simulations of droughts over the last millennium suggest that future droughts across Australia could be much longer than what was experienced in the 20th century, even without any human influence. With the addition of anthropogenic climate change, which favours drought conditions across much of southern Australia due to reduced cool-season rainfall, it is likely that future droughts in Australia will exceed recent historical experience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A deep learning model designed for time series predictions, the long short-term memory (LSTM) architecture, is regularly producing reliable results in local and regional rainfall–runoff applications around the world. Recent large-sample hydrology studies in North America and Europe have shown the LSTM model to successfully match conceptual model performance at a daily time step over hundreds of catchments. Here we investigate how these models perform in producing monthly runoff predictions in the relatively dry and variable conditions of the Australian continent. The monthly time step matches historic data availability and is also important for future water resources planning; however, it provides significantly smaller training datasets than daily time series. In this study, a continental-scale comparison of monthly deep learning (LSTM) predictions to conceptual rainfall–runoff (WAPABA model) predictions is performed on almost 500 catchments across Australia with performance results aggregated over a variety of catchment sizes, flow conditions, and hydrological record lengths. The study period covers a wet phase followed by a prolonged drought, introducing challenges for making predictions outside of known conditions – challenges that will intensify as climate change progresses. The results show that LSTM models matched or exceeded WAPABA prediction performance for more than two-thirds of the study catchments, the largest performance gains of LSTM versus WAPABA occurred in large catchments, the LSTMs struggled less to generalise than the WAPABA models (e.g. making predictions under new conditions), and catchments with few training observations due to the monthly time step did not demonstrate a clear benefit with either WAPABA or LSTM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conservation covenants are an important legal tool for enabling private land conservation, whose significance to policymakers has recently grown in light of new global commitments to expand areas of land and water protected and restored. Covenants' traditional focus on conservation of existing natural values rather than restoration of degraded land or active management of environments impacted by climate change pose significant challenges to the flexibility and efficacy of this legal instrument. In Australia, recent national legal reforms to incentivise private land conservation, notably the new Nature Repair Act 2023, will need to consider how it can align with conservation covenanted lands that are regulated by different laws with different criteria and goals. Here we identify some pathways for enabling conservation covenants to play an expanded role in the context of ecosystem restoration and climate adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background. Many species use hollows or cavities that form in trees. The effect of an increasing fire frequency on hollow-bearing trees is unclear. Aims. To predict the effects of increasing fire frequency on the abundance of hollow-bearing trees and identify how to make forests more resilient to these changes. Methods. We simulated how increasing fire frequency will affect the abundance of hollow-bearing trees in forests of south-eastern Australia and conducted a sensitivity analysis to identify which variables affect these predictions. Key results. Other things being equal, we found a negative relationship between the number of hollow-bearing trees and increasing fire frequency. However, we identified scenarios where the number of hollow-bearing trees remained stable, or increased, with frequent fires. Conclusions. Hollow-bearing trees will decline where frequent fires co-occur with high rates at which trees collapse (or are removed) and/or where there are not a sufficient number of suitable mature trees in which new hollows can be excavated by fire. Implications. The impact of increasing fire frequency on hollowdependent fauna is likely to be greatest in forests where regeneration is inhibited, a large number of trees are removed before they form hollows, and/or where rates of collapse among trees is elevated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change involves increases in mean temperature and changes in temperature variability at multiple temporal scales but research rarely considers these temporal scales. The climate variability hypothesis (CVH) provides a conceptual framework for exploring the potential effects of annual scale thermal variability across climatic zones. The CVH predicts ectotherms in temperate regions tolerate a wider range of temperatures than those in tropical regions in response to greater annual variability in temperate regions. However, various other aspects of thermal regimes (e.g. diel variability), organisms' size and taxonomic identity are also hypothesised to influence thermal tolerance. Indeed, high temperatures in the tropics have been proposed as constraining organisms' ability to tolerate a wide range of temperatures, implying that high annual maximum temperatures would be associated with tolerating a narrow range of temperatures. We measured thermal regimes and critical thermal limits (CTmax and CTmin) of freshwater insects in the orders Ephemeroptera (mayflies), Plecoptera (stoneflies) and Trichoptera (caddisflies) along elevation gradients in streams in temperate and tropical regions of eastern Australia and tested the CVH by determining which variables were most correlated with thermal breadth (Tbr = CTmax − CTmin). Consistent with the CVH, Tbr tended to increase with increasing annual temperature range. Tbr also increased with body size and Tbr was generally wider in Plecoptera than in Ephemeroptera or Trichoptera. We also find some support for a related hypothesis, the climate extreme hypothesis (CEH), particularly for predicting upper thermal limits. We found no evidence that higher annual maximum temperature constrained individuals' abilities to tolerate a wide range of temperatures. The support for the CVH we document suggests that temperate organisms may be able to tolerate wider ranges of temperatures than tropical organisms. There is an urgent need to investigate other aspects of thermal regimes, such as diel temperature cycling and minimum temperature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dairy industry has to increase production while overcoming the effects of climate change. This project assessed these challenges by adopting genetic advancements in dairy farms in order to adapt the systems to climate change. Historical and prospected climate scenarios were simulated by using daily climate data from the SILO meteorology database. The different handling styles and climate fluctuations of two farms were simulated using DairyMod. Using current pasture species and livestock, it first was modelled the effects of climate change in 2050 and 2080 on pasture growth, feed consumption, and milk production. Afterward, it was modelled better adapted pastures (deeply rooted, or "DR" and heat-tolerant, or "HR"), as well as livestock (with higher feed conversion efficiency, or "FCE"). The growth patterns of pastures will be impacted by climate change as the spring growing season will be shorter. Climate change will also result in less milk production and less feed consumption. The combined adapted perennial ryegrass DR+HT is the most effective adaptation alternative to counteract the effects of climate change on pasture growth. The combined adapted perennial ryegrass DR+HT and the multiple adaptations FCE+DR+HT are the most effective ways to counteract the effects on overall feed consumption. The best adaptation strategy to combat the decline in milk production is to use the multiple adaptations FCE+DR+HT. The use of genetically modified dairy cattle with ryegrass can increase milk supply by up to 5% until 2050. These findings suggest that genetically modified dairy cattle and genetically modified ryegrass must be introduced together in order to adapt a dairy system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]