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Objective: The climate crisis necessitates urgent decarbonisation. The health sector must address its large carbon footprint. In the present study, we sought healthcare thought leaders' views about a future environmentally sustainable health system. Methods: The present study was a qualitative exploratory study consisting of semistructured, in-depth interviews with 15 healthcare thought leaders from Australia, the UK, the US and New Zealand. Audio recordings of the interviews were transcribed and analysed by matrix display and thematic analysis. Results: Overall, healthcare thought leaders believe that to reduce the carbon footprint of healthcare we need to look beyond traditional 'green' initiatives towards a more fundamental and longer-term redesign. Five main themes and one 'key enabler' (information communication technology) were identified. In this paper we draw on other relevant findings, but chiefly focus on the fifth theme about reshaping the role of healthcare within society and using the size and influence of the health sector to leverage wider health, environmental and societal benefits. Conclusions: These ideas represent potentially low-carbon models of care. The next step would be to pilot and measure the outcomes (health, environmental, financial) of these models. What is known about the topic?: The health sector needs to reduce its large carbon footprint. Traditional 'green' initiatives, such as recycling and improving energy efficiency, are insufficient to achieve the scale of decarbonisation required. What does this paper add?: Healthcare thought leaders surveyed in the present study suggested that we also consider other, non-traditional ways to achieve environmental sustainability. In this paper we discuss their ideas about adopting an anticipatory approach to healthcare using predictive analytics, and using the size and influence of the health sector to effect wider health and environmental benefits. What are the implications for practitioners?: Achieving an environmentally sustainable healthcare system is likely to require broad and fundamental (i.e. transformational) change to the current service model. Health practitioners throughout the sector must be closely engaged in this process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Health care expenditure studies of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries remain important because their findings often suggest cost containment and other policy initiatives. This paper focuses on the compatibility of OECD health data with the "expenditure inertia" (or lagged adjustments) hypothesis, by modeling individual country time-series data of 21 nations for the 1960-1993 period. Maximum likelihood estimates of the Box-Cox transformation regression models reveal that: (a) the hypothesized impact of health "expenditure inertia" is both pervasive and strong, averaging 0.64 across the countries; (b) the real GDP elasticities of health care expenditures vary widely among the countries and average 0.34 in the short run--implying that health care is a necessity; (c) the long run GDP elasticities are less than 1 in 8 countries, unitary elastic in 8 countries and elastic in 5 countries--suggesting that health care is not universally a necessity or a luxury commodity for the OECD countries; (d) physician-inducement effects (dis-inducement in a few countries) are weak, with a mean elasticity estimate of 0.17; and (e) no unique functional form approximation model is globally compatible with the data across the countries. Health care cost containment policy implications of these findings are explored. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]