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OzFlux is the regional Australian and New Zealand flux tower network that aims to provide a continental-scale national research facility to monitor and assess trends, and improve predictions, of Australia's terrestrial biosphere and climate. This paper describes the evolution, design and current status of OzFlux as well as an overview of data processing. We analyse measurements from the Australian portion of the OzFlux network and found that the response of Australian biomes to climate was largely consistent with global studies but that Australian systems had a lower ecosystem water-use efficiency. Australian semi-arid/arid ecosystems are important because of their huge extent (70%) and they have evolved with common moisture limitations. We also found that Australian ecosystems had similar radiation use efficiency per unit leaf area compared to global values that indicates a convergence toward a similar biochemical efficiency. The paper discusses the utility of the flux data and the synergies between flux, remote sensing and modelling. Lastly, the paper looks ahead at the future direction of the network and concludes that there has been a substantial contribution by OzFlux and considerable opportunities remain to further advance our understanding of ecosystem response to disturbances including drought, fire, land use and land cover change, land management and climate change that are relevant both nationally and internationally. It is suggested that a synergistic approach is required to address all of the spatial, ecological, human and cultural challenges of managing the delicately balanced ecosystems in Australia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Alpine ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to climate change, and studies suggest that mountain dwellers from delicate flowers in the Swiss Alps to pygmy possums in Australia are in trouble. Although it can be difficult to tease out other factors, including fire suppression and livestock grazing, a growing number of researchers fear that if the heat keeps rising, many alpine plants and animals will face quick declines or extinction. In neighboring New Zealand, a paper presented in 2003 in Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research predicts that a 3ºc temperature rise over the next century, moderate as estimates go, will wipe out 80 percent of alpine islands and extinguish a third to a half of 613 known alpine plants.

Many general circulation models fail to capture the observed frequency of atmospheric blocking events in the Northern Hemisphere; however, few studies have examined models in the Southern Hemisphere and those studies that have, have often been based on only a few models. To provide a comprehensive view of how the current generation of coupled general circulation models performs in the Southern Hemisphere and how blocking frequency changes under enhanced greenhouse gas forcing, we examine the output of 23 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We find that models have differing biases during winter, when blocking occurrence is highest, though models underestimate blocking frequency south of Australia during summer. We show that models generally have a reduction in blocking frequency with future anthropogenic forcing, particularly in the Australia‐New Zealand sector with the number of winter blocked days reduced by about one third by the end of the 21st century. Plain Language Summary: Atmospheric blocking is a process in which an atmospheric wave breaks, diverting the jet stream and any incoming storms to the north or south. A blocking event is characterized by high pressure on the poleward side and low pressure on the equatorward side and persists for upward of 4 days. A key feature of blocks is their persistence, which can lead to events, which have significant impacts on society including heat waves in summer and periods of extreme cold in winter. Climate models often do not simulate enough blocking events, though most research on this problem has focused on the Northern Hemisphere and less is known about the Southern Hemisphere. We survey 23 climate models and show that during winter some models simulate too many blocking events, while others simulate too few, whereas during summer, almost all models simulate too few events to the south of Australia. We also show that with higher concentrations of greenhouse gases we expect there to be less blocking, particularly to the south of Australia and over New Zealand during winter. Key Points: We provide a comprehensive survey of Southern Hemisphere blocking using a large number of coupled modelsFuture projections generally suggest an overall decrease in Southern Hemisphere blocking frequencyThere is strong model agreement on blocking frequency decreases to the south of Australia during austral winter [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deep sea scleractinian corals will be particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, facing loss of up to 70% of their habitat as the Aragonite Saturation Horizon (below which corals are unable to form calcium carbonate skeletons) rises. Persistence of deep sea scleractinian corals will therefore rely on the ability of larvae to disperse to, and colonise, suitable shallow-water habitat. We used DNA sequence data of the internal transcribed spacer (ITS), the mitochondrial ribosomal subunit (16S) and mitochondrial control region (MtC) to determine levels of gene flow both within and among populations of the deep sea coral Desmophyllum dianthus in SE Australia, New Zealand and Chile to assess the ability of corals to disperse into different regions and habitats. We found significant genetic subdivision among the three widely separated geographic regions consistent with isolation and limited contemporary gene flow. Furthermore, corals from different depth strata (shallow <600 m, mid 1000-1500 m, deep >1500 m) even on the same or nearby seamounts were strongly differentiated, indicating limited vertical larval dispersal. Genetic differentiation with depth is consistent with the stratification of the Subantarctic Mode Water, Antarctic Intermediate Water, the Circumpolar Deep and North Pacific Deep Waters in the Southern Ocean, and we propose that coral larvae will be retained within, and rarely migrate among, these water masses. The apparent absence of vertical larval dispersal suggests deep populations of D. dianthus are unlikely to colonise shallow water as the aragonite saturation horizon rises and deep waters become uninhabitable. Similarly, assumptions that deep populations will act as refuges for shallow populations that are impacted by activities such as fishing or mining are also unlikely to hold true. Clearly future environmental management strategies must consider both regional and depth-related isolation of deep-sea coral populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The imprint of the past upon contemporary landscape forms and processes is differentiated in terms of geologic, climatic and anthropogenic memory. Geologic memory refers to controls exerted upon relief, erodibility, erosivity and accommodation space (areas in landscapes where sediments are stored and reworked). These factors set the imposed boundary conditions within which contemporary landscape-forming processes operate. Climatic memory refers to the influence of past climatic conditions upon contemporary landscape forms and processes. Climatic controls exert a primary influence upon the nature of geomorphic processes, while the influence of climate upon ground cover affects the effectiveness of these processes. Climate change may induce profound alterations to the flux boundary conditions under which contemporary landscapes operate. This is exemplified by the variable imprint of glacial/interglacial cycles in differing parts of the world. Anthropogenic memory refers to the imprint of past human activities on contemporary landscapes, whereby human disturbance in the past altered landscape forms, processes and associated flow/sediment fluxes in a manner that continues to affect the way the contemporary landscape works. Contrasting examples from a tectonically stable landscape (Australia) and a tectonically uplifting landscape (New Zealand) are used to highlight the variable influence of geologic, climatic and anthropogenic memory upon the persistence and erasure of landscape forms and resulting implications for sediment flux in differing settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Aim We explore the impact of calibrating ecological niche models (ENMs) using (1) native range (NR) data versus (2) entire range (ER) data (native and invasive) on projections of current and future distributions of three Hieracium species. Location H. aurantiacum, H. murorum and H. pilosella are native to Europe and invasive in Australia, New Zealand and North America. Methods Differences among the native and invasive realized climatic niches of each species were quantified. Eight ENMs in BIOMOD were calibrated with (1) NR and (2) ER data. Current European, North American and Australian distributions were projected. Future Australian distributions were modelled using four climate change scenarios for 2030. Results The invasive climatic niche of H. murorum is primarily a subset of that expressed in its native range. Invasive populations of H. aurantiacum and H. pilosella occupy different climatic niches to those realized in their native ranges. Furthermore, geographically separate invasive populations of these two species have distinct climatic niches. ENMs calibrated on the realized niche of native regions projected smaller distributions than models incorporating data from species’ entire ranges, and failed to correctly predict many known invasive populations. Under future climate scenarios, projected distributions decreased by similar percentages, regardless of the data used to calibrate ENMs; however, the overall sizes of projected distributions varied substantially. Main conclusions This study provides quantitative evidence that invasive populations of Hieracium species can occur in areas with different climatic conditions than experienced in their native ranges. For these, and similar species, calibration of ENMs based on NR data only will misrepresent their potential invasive distribution. These errors will propagate when estimating climate change impacts. Thus, incorporating data from species’ entire distributions may result in a more thorough assessment of current and future ranges, and provides a closer approximation of the elusive fundamental niche. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Grasslands encompass a broad array of vegetation and climatic zones.We describe the first developments towards a rule-based functional model for predicting vegetation structure in Australian and New Zealand pastures and rangelands. The approach aims to predict the combined effects of climate and disturbance by humans and grazing livestock, and to provide a level of resolution needed for predicting changes in pastures and rangelands. We enlisted expert knowledge to develop: (l)a minimum set of critical traits; (2) rules relating site variables to favoured-plant attributes; (3) rules relating attributes to plant functional traits, and (4) rules relating plant functional types to likely plant communities. We tested the resulting model by deriving some simple predictions of plant communities of some existing pasture and rangeland sites in Australia and New Zealand, with differing climatic and human disturbance inputs. The results indicate that this first model is able to predict plant communities with varying success rates, and with the best results in cases where there are extreme climates or high management inputs. Key sensitivities in the model where further research is required include: (1) the urgent need for more explicit understanding of the key plant functional attributes favoured bydiffering climates and disturbance regimes, (2) the functional relationships between these plant functional attributes and recognisable plant functional types in vegetation, and (3) the assembly rules for the coexistence of these different plant functional types in major plant communities. The same understanding is required for subsequent process-based modelling development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]