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South eastern Australia is a global warming hotspot, and is also home to ~70% of Australia's population and one of Australia's largest fisheries—the South East Scalefish and Shark Fishery. This fishery spans shelf to deep waters, subtropical to temperate waters, employs many gears, and interacts with over 100 species. Despite following best practice fisheries management principles, including taking an ecosystem perspective to overall fisheries interactions, management interventions have failed to arrest or recover the decline of some focal species. Using an Atlantis ecosystem model developed for the fishery over the past 20 years, this paper presents simulations that suggest climate change may be a major contributor to the trajectories seen for a number of species—such as jackass morwong (Nemadactylus macropterus), blue warehou (Seriolella brama), and gemfish (Rexea solandri). This kind of climate influence poses many challenges for fisheries management into the future, raising questions about what to do when climate change undermines or overrides fisheries management actions and objectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: Existing food production systems and dietary behaviours are not healthy nor sustainable due to the higher environmental footprint of animal-derived foods. Alternative dietary choices could provide better outcomes. We investigated Generation Z (Gen Z)'s alternative food preferences within a planetary health framework which combines human and ecological well-being. The paper is based on data from a 2021 cross-national survey conducted in the main Australian cities, which explored Gen Z's attitudes towards meat consumption in relation to climate change and alternatives to animal-based proteins. Climate change is seen as a result of human activities by 86% of the survey participants. More than a third (38%) of them believe that livestock production and the consumption of animal-sourced foods are contributing significantly to climate change and environmental deterioration. The remaining majority (62%), however, has a low awareness and understanding of the food systems' impacts, disbelieving that diet is a major contributor to climate change. We discuss how these findings will shape Australia's Gen Z, climate change and the future of alternative proteins. Scientific evidence shows that current food systems are impacting the planet in ways that are unsustainable and detrimental to human health. Various technological advances have been made in response, one of them being the development of new food products known as novel alternative proteins, including cultured meat, plant-based meat analogues, algae- and insect-based foods. The future of these alternative proteins to a large extent depends on consumer acceptance from young people. This study investigates the attitudes of Australia's adult Generation Z (Gen Z), born between 1995 and 2003, regarding climate change and more sustainable food choices. Gen Z is a diverse, important and trendsetting group known for organising globally on causes related to climate, social justice and health. The study of Australia's Gen Z is based on a 2021 cross-national survey in the main Australian cities. It shows that, although 86% of the participants perceive climate change as anthropogenic, only 38% believe that livestock-based foods are contributing significantly to global warming and environmental deterioration. The paper discusses the implications for Gen Z and novel alternative proteins given that the majority of Australia's young people has low awareness of the environmental impacts of food systems and dietary choices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: We synthesise the findings from 10 years of ecological restoration in the Midlands of Tasmania, Australia, captured in the series of 14 papers in this special issue of Ecological Management and Restoration. The papers illustrate how expertise from disciplines as diverse as law, economics, social sciences, the arts, education, zoology, botany, genetics, climate modelling, agriculture, spatial sciences and fire ecology are necessary to address the complex social, ecological and financial questions that underpin restoration ecology. We highlight the complexity of the task, the multi‐disciplinary and collaborative approach needed, the importance of science to inform restoration practice and the problem of achieving functional connectivity. We also outline steps that need to be taken in the next 10 years. Together, the outcomes and recommendations from these studies provide a template for restoration in similar highly cleared and degraded agricultural landscapes affected by climate change in Australia and internationally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is now clearly recognised as a source of financial risk for private sector actors. In Anglo-American jurisdictions like Australia, corporate law and prudential regulatory frameworks contain obligations to identify, disclose and manage material financial risks that can be applied to climate-related risks. These legal frameworks have served as a foundation for the emergence of a range of private regulatory initiatives which seek to develop and apply best practice standards for climate risk disclosure and management, and which involve a range of different actors in driving the uptake of, and seeking to enforce, these standards. This paper explores the body of emerging private climate risk regulation, focusing particularly on the central organising theme of these initiatives: aligning private climate risk management to the climate mitigation goals of the international Paris Agreement. It outlines the way in which Paris-alignment and net-zero emissions are emerging as new norms guiding private sector approaches to climate change and explores how this interacts with and builds on essentially climateneutral, risk-based corporate law and prudential regulatory frameworks. While there is considerable potential in Australia for Paris-aligned private risk management to contribute meaningfully to achieving international climate mitigation goals, there are also well-founded concerns about the effectiveness of these private measures that require further investigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Malthouse Theatre's The Suitcase Series celebrated ten years in 2020. As a participatory theatre making program for young people in Years 9 and 10 of secondary education, it holds a unique position in the Victorian and, arguably, the Australian theatre education landscape. Since 2010 Malthouse Theatre has commissioned an original script by a new playwright every two years, then challenging young people to give voice to their thoughts and feelings to the issue through the interrelated roles of creator-performer-audience-critical peer. This paper offers critical insight into the origin, intentions, process, and social and artistic impacts of the program across ten years. It positions the Malthouse as a key contributor to the field of participatory theatre programs in Australia, and considers how theatre can create 'something very forceful, something that we believe, then offer to students in a way that doesn't crush them' (Lynch, 2010). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the spatial variation of area‐orientated annual maximum daily rainfall (AMDR), represented by well‐fitted generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions, over the last century in Great Britain (GB) and Australia (AU) with respect to three spatial properties: geographic locations, sizes, and shapes of the region‐of‐interest (ROI). The results show that the spatial variation of GEV location‐scale parameters is dominated by geographic locations and area sizes. In GB, there is an eastward‐decreasing banded pattern compared with a concentrically increasing pattern from the middle to coasts in AU. The parameters tend to decrease with increased area sizes in both studied regions. Although the impact of the ROI shapes is insignificant, the round‐shaped regions usually have higher‐valued parameters than the elongated ones. These findings provide a new perspective to understand the heterogeneity of extreme rainfall distribution over space driven by the complex interactions between climate, geographical features, and the practical sampling approaches. Key Points: Rainfall series are extracted and processed from more than 11,000 regions of interest over the last 100 years in Great Britain and Australia.Spatial distribution of extreme rainfall modeled qualitatively and quantitatively shows impact from location, size, and shape of regions.Methods and findings provide new perspectives for understanding the heterogeneous nature of climate variability and climatic change impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Early adolescence (12–13 years old) is a critical but under-researched demographic for the formation of attitudes related to climate change. We address this important area by exploring adolescent views about climate change. This paper presents opinions collected from surveys of 463 1st-year secondary school students (12–13 years old) in public secondary schools in inner-urban centres in Austria and Australia on whether climate change is (1) something about which to worry, (2) caused by humans and (3) happening now. Eligible respondents in both countries showed similar levels of agreement that climate change was probably or definitely something we should (1) worry about (84.6% Austria, 89.1% Australia), which is significantly higher than either country's adult population. Eligible respondents agreed that climate change probably or definitely is (2) caused by humans (75.6% Austria, 83.6% Australia) and that climate change is probably or definitely something that is (3) happening now (73.1% Austria, 87.5% Australia). Their response differed from the respective adult populations, but in opposite directions. Our results suggest that socio-cultural worldview may not have as much influence on this age group as it does on the respective adult populations and suggests that this age group would be receptive and ready for climate science education and engagement initiatives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When record-breaking climate and weather extremes occur, decision-makers and planners want to know whether they are random natural events with historical levels of reoccurrence or are reflective of an altered frequency or intensity as a result of climate change. This paper describes a method to attribute extreme weather and climate events to observed increases in atmospheric CO2 using an initialized subseasonal to seasonal coupled global climate prediction system. Application of this method provides quantitative estimates of the contribution arising from increases in the level of atmospheric CO2 to individual weather and climate extreme events. Using a coupled subseasonal to seasonal forecast system differs from other methods because it has the merit of being initialized with the observed conditions and subsequently reproducing the observed events and their mechanisms. This can aid understanding when the reforecasts with and without enhanced CO2 are compared and communicated to a general audience. Atmosphere–ocean interactions are accounted for. To illustrate the method, we attribute the record Australian heat event of October 2015. We find that about half of the October 2015 Australia-wide temperature anomaly is due to the increase in atmospheric CO2 since 1960. This method has the potential to provide attribution statements for forecast events within an outlook period (i.e., before they occur). This will allow for informed messaging to be available as required when an extreme event occurs, which is of particular use to weather and climate services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regional climate models (RCMs) are used to dynamically downscale global climate models (GCMs) to provide high-resolution projections of future climate change to better inform policy and decision making at the regional scale. However, biases from GCMs are transferred to RCMs and this can limit the usefulness of the regional climate projections. This paper investigates the influence of bias correcting 4 GCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3, for regional climate simulations over the CORDEX-Australasia domain using Weather Research and Forecasting. The GCM outputs are bias corrected against ERA-Interim reanalysis as a surrogate truth. Results show that over decadal time scales bias correction removes large systematic precipitation and temperature biases. However, bias correction also introduced biases where there were none, introduced biases of the opposite sign, or enhanced existing biases in other regions in some instances. The dynamical mechanisms driving the changes in the biases are explored. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aboriginal People have inhabited the Australian continent before time began, but archaeologists and anthropologists state there is evidence for approximately 51,000 to 71,000 years of continual habitation. During this time, the Australian continent has experienced many environmental and climatic changes, which have contributed to mass animal extinction. The skeletal remains of Aboriginal Australians were examined for evidence, which may be indicative of fast running which would assist survival. The skull and mandible bones of the Kaurna People were examined for signs evolutional traits related to survival. Aboriginal culture, knowledge of medical treatment and traditional medicines were also investigated. Oral storytelling of factual events, passed down unchanged for millennia, contributed to survival. The Kaurna People exhibited evolutionary facial features that would have assisted survival. Kaurna People had excellent knowledge of medicine and the capacity to heal their community members. The process of mobility and relocation may have embedded the need to be mobile in some Aboriginal Australian cultures, and why many Aboriginal tribes did not invest too much time and resources in building permanent structures and dwellings. Navigating these extremely harsh, rapidly changing conditions is an incredible story of survival of Aboriginal Australians. The findings of this investigation suggest that Aboriginal Australians' survival methods were complex and multi-faceted. Although this paper could not examine every survival method, perhaps Aboriginal Peoples' knowledge of flora and fauna, (for nourishment and medicine) living in clans, and avoiding mass cohabitation was paramount to our survival. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper describes a risk analysis of the economic impact of damage to metal roofing of a typical contemporary (new) Australian house subject to extreme wind loading. The failure modes considered are roof cladding and batten-to-truss connection failures, with the effect of defective construction also considered. Monte-Carlo simulation and structural reliability methods are used to stochastically model spatially varying pressure coefficients, roof component failure, and load re-distribution across the roof. This spatial reliability analysis enables fragility curves to be developed that relate likelihood and extent of roof cover loss to gust wind speed. The annual economic risk is up to 0.3% of house replacement value. A typical house with construction defects increases economic risk more than sixfold when compared to the defect-free house. There is a 10% chance that a changing climate will increase expected losses for houses in Brisbane and Melbourne by 6–18% over the next 50 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although planning and policy instruments are important for climate change adaptation, the implementation of these measures is critical for success. This paper studies different climate change adaptation strategies by analysing the measures adopted by stakeholders in charge of government policy development and implementation to minimise the impacts of climate change in the northern tropical region of Queensland, Australia. Local government organisations are responsible for taking a leading role in climate change adaptation. State and commonwealth government agencies are primarily responsible for developing climate transition policies and guidelines, as well as providing limited financial aid to help support the local government. Interviews were conducted with local government practitioners identified from different local government authorities in the study region. Although all the government bodies made some progress in developing better climate change adaptation policies, the interview participants identified that a lot more needs to be done, especially in implementation, including devising and the application of relevant action plans, economic assessments, stakeholder participations and engagement. From a local government practitioners' viewpoint, both the water sector and local economy will face the highest immediate impacts if climate change adaptation actions are not adequately implemented at local government level in the study region. There are currently no notable legal bindings to address climate change risks in the region. In addition, financial liability assessments due to climate risks and cost-share mechanisms among different levels of stakeholders and government authorities to face and prepare for climate change impacts hardly exist. Although the interview respondents recognise their high importance. As there are uncertainties in the achievements of climate change adaptation plans, from a local government practitioners' standpoint, the local authorities should take appropriate actions to integrate adaptation and mitigation works to face and prepare for climate risks rather than focusing only on adaptation. The respondents informed that some work has been done to identify flood prone areas and a few policy documents exist that accommodate sea level rise in planning practice, but these are done in fragments with no holistic implementation, monitoring or evaluation plans put in place. • Climate change adaptation actions are urgently needed. • The priorities and perceptions of government professionals are key to success. • Stakeholders needs to be engaged to formulate adaptation strategies. • Holistic implementation, monitoring or evaluation plans are important for success. • Climate change adaptation and mitigation measures are suggested to be integrated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climatic change is driving research and development in low emissions technologies. One such technology is the use of charcoal from biomass in steelmaking. This paper adapts social life cycle assessment methodologies to analyse the social dimensions of energy supply alternatives in steelmaking using regionalised production scenarios in Australia. Three energy supply alternatives are investigated: charcoal produced from Radiata pine plantation forestry; charcoal produced from Mallee eucalypt revegetation on agricultural land; and metallurgical coal. Impact indicators analysed include land-use, employment, workplace health & safety and a qualitative analysis of identified stakeholder issues. The research finds that biomass alternatives are significant generators of direct employment at the regional level; have concomitantly higher rates of workplace injuries and represent a significant change in land-use. Charcoal produced from Mallee biomass planted as a conservation measure on farmland, however, has the benefit of representing a shared land-use that provides an additional farm revenue stream and assists dryland salinity management. The paper finds that full substitution of coal by pine or Mallee charcoal does not provide a unique solution for optimising the social performance of the energy supply alternatives across all indicators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Various human heat stress indices have been developed to relate atmospheric measures of extreme heat to human health impacts, but the usefulness of different indices across various health impacts and in different populations is poorly understood. This paper determines which heat stress indices best fit hospital admissions for sets of cardiovascular, respiratory, and renal diseases across five Australian cities. We hypothesized that the best indices would be largely dependent on location. We fit parent models to these counts in the summers (November-March) between 2001 and 2013 using negative binomial regression. We then added 15 heat stress indices to these models, ranking their goodness of fit using the Akaike information criterion. Admissions for each health outcome were nearly always higher in hot or humid conditions. Contrary to our hypothesis that location would determine the best-fitting heat stress index, we found that the best indices were related largely by health outcome of interest, rather than location as hypothesized. In particular, heatwave and temperature indices had the best fit to cardiovascular admissions, humidity indices had the best fit to respiratory admissions, and combined heat-humidity indices had the best fit to renal admissions. With a few exceptions, the results were similar across all five cities. The best-fitting heat stress indices appear to be useful across several Australian cities with differing climates, but they may have varying usefulness depending on the outcome of interest. These findings suggest that future research on heat and health impacts, and in particular hospital demand modeling, could better reflect reality if it avoided “all-cause” health outcomes and used heat stress indices appropriate to specific diseases and disease groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper summarises key issues from papers included in a special issue about the impacts of climate change on Australian wetlands. The papers covered: the assessment of wetlands under climate change, adaptation and engineering responses to climate change, and restoring wetlands under a changing climate. The key issues from these papers were used to indicate areas where the Ramsar Convention could develop guidance as part of its' Handbooks for the Wise Use of Wetlands. These included: (i) assessing changes in the distribution of species and whether these constitute a change in the ecological character of the wetland; (ii) assessing the usefulness of models of wetland response to climate change; (iii) assessing the value in allocating water to protected sites where restoration would be contingent on reallocation of larger volumes of water; (iv) assessing the efficacy of engineering responses with the potential to deliver more water-efficient environmental outcomes for wetlands and (v) determining if the description of the ecological character of a Ramsar site at the time of listing is a suitable reference for management purposes. With these issues in mind it is recommended that further attention is directed towards determining and responding to the ecological consequences of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This is the introduction to the Ecology and Society special feature on "Applying Landscape Science to Natural Resource Management". Primarily drawing upon examples from Australia, the nine papers in the feature illustrate how landscape science seeks to integrate information from diverse sources to generate management solutions for implementation by individual land managers, communities, and governments at different levels. This introduction refers to the genesis of the feature, briefly outlines the nature and content of landscape science, and then summarizes key features of the nine papers. These are organized into two sections: one deals with inputs from human agents in the landscape, and one with the development of models enabling different management scenarios and environmental changes to be envisaged, understood, and applied to policy development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Economic analysis of climate scenarios and alternative water policies is critical for development and implementation of appropriate water policies and programs. Mathematical models have been developed to assess water resources policies due to their ability to explicitly represent the biophysical dynamics of natural systems while integrating these within social and economic constraints. These models have been criticised, however, due to the problems of simplification, overspecialisation, plausibility and lack of empirical validation. This paper introduces a mathematical programming model which uses positive mathematical programming method to calibrate and model agriculture and water use in the Murray-Darling Basin of Australia. This paper reviews the theoretical and technical details of the model development including the key steps taken in collating and scaling the biophysical and economic data, and to address model parameterisation issues. The paper summarises results of an application of the model for assessing climate change impacts in the form of reduced rainfall and water allocations and increased crop water use for agricultural production. The results show the degree of variability in gross values under different climate scenarios compared to the base case scenario, especially in very dry years. The results also show how on-farm adaptation options and water markets can mitigate these losses. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper explores how disclosure is used by key bodies in the Australian mining industry as a means to respond to climate change and ensure their social licence to operate. The study utilises a legitimacy theory framework and a multi-case analysis to examine the environmental disclosure practices via a variety of media of two companies and two industry bodies within Australia''s mining industry. It is revealed that a combination of legitimising strategies is undertaken by key bodies in the Australian mining industry, however to differing degrees depending on the organisation. There is also support for the notion that different media plays a critical role in facilitating the legitimacy seeking behaviours of the companies and industry bodies. This study extends existing literature on legitimacy theory by highlighting the value of utilising this perspective to explore contemporary phenomena such as corporate responses to climate change. The findings of this study have practical significance as they are expected to have important policy ramifications. One of the differentiating features of this paper, compared to prior studies utilising a legitimacy theory framework, is the examination of legitimising disclosure strategies at an industry level, which complements a company level analysis. Moreover, variations in legitimising disclosure strategies and communication media employed may be due to their focus on differing conferring publics and stakeholder groups. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The Australian Government's Clean Energy Legislative Package includes the legislative infrastructure for a carbon tax which came into full effect in July 2012. Although the legislation is comprehensive, we argue that it lacks a mechanism that adequately deals with the competing policy objectives of: (a) achieving reductions in greenhouse gas emissions; (b) not impairing national economic growth; and (c) ensuring that international obligations regarding response measures, such as a carbon tax, do not adversely affect developing countries. The potential policy frictions between these objectives might have been reduced had the Government included a well-known trade mechanism which could have provided a more coherent interface for these competing policy objectives. That mechanism is the 'border tax adjustment'. This paper explores a range of misunderstandings surrounding the use of border tax adjustments, which may well explain why they were not implemented. Furthermore, this paper will explain how, if properly understood, border tax adjustments could make a significant contribution to a consistent climate policy that balances the competing concerns of climate change, trade, economic and developmental policy objectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There has been an increasing investment of taxpayer dollars in revegetation in Australia over the past 20 years, at both federal and state levels. The largest of these, the Australian Government's Biodiversity Fund, will invest A$946 million to revegetate, rehabilitate and restore landscapes to store carbon, enhance biodiversity and build environmental resilience under climate change. The universal challenge for restoration practitioners working within these programmes is species selection for both current and future environmental conditions at a given site. For policy makers, the challenge is to provide guidelines and tools for this process. The first paper in this series of two papers looked at scientific methods that could provide underpinning knowledge to improve the assessment of species vulnerability to climatic and atmospheric change. In this paper, the publically accessible Atlas of Living Australia is used to demonstrate how revegetation project leaders can assess whether the species and provenances used in their revegetation projects are likely to be suitable for changing environmental conditions. While using the Atlas can assist current selections, ways in which more reliable selections for changing climatic conditions could be made are also outlined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Governments across Australia have long been investing in revegetation in an effort to restore biodiversity and, more recently, mitigate climate change. However, no readily available methods have been described to assist project leaders identify species and provenance material likely to be sustainable under the changing climatic conditions of coming decades. Focussing particularly on trees, as trees are important for biosequestration as well as for providing habitat for other native species, Paper 1 of this two part series briefly reviews species distribution models and growth simulation models that could provide the scientific underpinning to improve and refine selection processes. While these previous scientific studies provide useful insights into how trees may respond to climate change, it is concluded that a readily accessible and easy-to-use approach is required to consider the potential adaptability of the many trees, shrubs and ground cover species that may be needed for biodiverse plantings. In Part 2 of this paper, the Atlas of Living Australia is used to provide preliminary information to assist species selection by assessing the climatic range of individual species based on their current distributions and, where available, cultivated locations. While using the Atlas can assist current selections, ways are outlined in Part 2 in which more reliable selections for changing climatic conditions could be made, building on the methods described here. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Monitoring changes in the terrestrial carbon cycle and vegetation health can only be undertaken over large areas and on a regular basis using ecological indicators derived from satellite-based sensors. Climate conditions in Mediterranean ecosystems have undergone, and are projected to undergo, significant change in the future with marked impacts on forest and shrubland vegetation. In the southwest of Australia (SWAU), endemic tree species have experienced significant declines in health and mortality since the early 1990s primarily due to these climatic changes. In this paper we examine trends in Net Primary Production (NPP) from 2000 to 2011 as an indicator of productivity and health condition of the woody vegetation across the SWAU region. To do so, we examine NPP estimates derived from satellite imagery and climate data to answer the questions: (1) what is the extent and rate of change in NPP for the SWAU region over the study period, and (2) how important is fire as a contributing factor in the observed trends? Our results suggest that, similar to the global trend in Mediterranean ecosystems, between 2000 and 2011, overall NPP declined across the study region, with the majority of declines occurring in the ecological transition zone between trees and shrubs. Twenty-six percent of the 37,042 square kilometre of woody vegetation that showed a declining NPP trend, was affected by fire. The overall rate of NPP decline for the region was estimated to be −0.38 megaton C per year since 2000, indicating a reduction in the capacity of the region to act as a carbon sink. Under climate change projections, the observed decline trends are likely to continue and our results suggest that the carbon storage potential in this region is gradually decreasing following an ecological shift from tall tree-dominated to lower shrub-dominated vegetation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A rapidly warming planet provides a significant challenge to the design, delivery, and maintenance of habitable housing across Australia. Information on the adequacy of current measures for cooling Indigenous houses in regional and remote communities in relation to climate change and rising energy consumption costs is lacking. Such information is needed to better protect low socio-economic status householders, people with pre-existing health conditions, and people living in climatically exposed regions. This article models the thermal performance of both existing and 'improved' (built to current national construction code standards) housing stock in relation to various occupancy density, cooling system, and ventilation practice scenarios. This modelling was undertaken for housing in Australia's tropical, arid, and hot/mild climate zones, matching the sites where most discrete Indigenous communities are located. Results show that retrofitting existing housing stock and even building new stock to meet recommended standards are not adequate measures for current or future climate changes. This paper challenges current knowledge, policy, and practices regarding Indigenous housing, demonstrating that significant reform is necessary to maintain habitable conditions and improve energy resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasing global temperatures as a result of climate change are widely considered inevitable for Australia. Despite this, the specific effects of climate change on Australian agriculture are little studied and the effects on agricultural pests and diseases are virtually unknown. In this paper we consider the impact of climate change on the Asiatic citrus psyllid (Diaphorina citri Kuwayama [Hemiptera: Psyllidae]); one of two known vectors of huanglongbing (citrus greening); a debilitating disease which is caused in Asia by a phloem-limited bacterium ‘Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus’ (α-Proteobacteria). D. citri does not occur in Australia, but if introduced would pose a major threat to the viability of the Australian citrus industry and to native Citrus species. This paper presents an approach developed to understand how climate change may influence the behaviour, distribution and breeding potential of D. citri. Here we developed and describe an initial dynamic point model of D. citri biology in relation to its citrus host and applied it to a scenario of increasing temperatures, as indicators of climate change, on a continental scale. A comparison between model outputs for the three time frames considered (1990, 2030 and 2070) confirms that increasing temperatures projected under climate change will affect the timing and duration of new citrus growth (flush) necessary for psyllid development throughout Australia. Flushing will start progressively earlier as the temperature increases and be of shorter duration. There will also be a gradual southward expansion of shorter durations of the occurrence of flush. Increasing temperatures will impact on D. citri both directly through alteration of its temperature dependant development cycle and indirectly through the impact on the host flushing cycle. For the whole of Australia, a comparison between model outputs for the three scenarios considered indicates the seasonality of D. citri development will change to match changes in citrus flush initiation. Results indicate that the risk of establishment by D. citri is projected to decrease under increasing temperatures, mainly due to shortened intervals when it can feed on new leaf flushes of the host. However, the spatially heterogeneous results also suggest that regions located on the southern coastline of Australia could become more suitable for D. citri than projected under current temperatures. These results confirm the value of a linked host-pest approach as based on D. citri climatic requirements alone the model would have accounted only for shorter development periods and predicted an increased risk of potential distribution. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper explains how the location of motorsports events is an integral part of the marketing of the sport of motor racing and of all its attendant commercial interests. Case studies of the major motorsports events staged in public street circuits in Australia are used to illustrate how the locations have particular symbolic significance that adds legitimacy to the sport of motor racing, and the messages and impacts associated with these events. The paper examines the wider significance of allowing special public spaces in cities to be used for motorsports events, and contends that the marketing of sporting events should not be considered independently of the major challenges facing the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines how the politics of climate change have taken shape within Australia through the construction and contestation of concepts of obligation and responsibility. Beck’s risk society thesis offers a conceptual starting point from which to address questions concerning the nature of contemporary risk politics, and the paper examines its relevance and applicability in this case. While Beck’s theory provides insight into the nature of risk and directs attention to the ways in which notions of obligation and responsibility structure risk politics, it fails to engage with why, and how, particular definitions of risk and responsibility come to dominate the political arena. It is argued that in Australia the novel challenges climate change poses to the institutions of modernity have been negated through ensuing policy responses which have reinforced links between industry and government, and have defined climate responsibilities within existing relations of production and the spatio-temporal frameworks of modernity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines conservation objectives in Australian law in the context of climate change. The rate of climate change and the scale and extent of its impacts on natural systems drive the need to re-evaluate current conservation objectives, from basic concept definitions, to overarching goals and values, to the way they are operationalized at all levels. We outline the case for reform of objectives in the legal framework for conservation and discuss three key strategies that would facilitate this transition: (1) acknowledgment in conservation law of system dynamism; (2) focus on ecosystem function, stability, and resilience; and (3) an explicit recognition that systems operate across multiple scales. Law reform is a slow process, but the potential of climate change to drive transformational changes means that urgent action is needed to overcome the limitations of current objectives and in the legal framework itself. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Species distribution models (SDMs) are an effective way of predicting the potential distribution of species and their response to environmental change. Most SDMs apply presence data to a relatively generic set of predictive variables such as climate. However, this weakens the modelling process by overlooking the responses to more cryptic predictive variables. In this paper we demonstrate a means by which data gathered from an intensive animal trapping study can be used to enhance SDMs by combining field data with bioclimatic modelling techniques to determine the future potential distribution for the koomal (Trichosurus vulpecula hypoleucus). The koomal is a geographically isolated subspecies of the common brushtail possum, endemic to south-western Australia. Since European settlement this taxon has undergone a significant reduction in distribution due to its vulnerability to habitat fragmentation, introduced predators and tree/shrub dieback caused by a virulent group of plant pathogens of the genus Phytophthora. An intensive field study found: 1) the home range for the koomal rarely exceeded 1 km in in length at its widest point; 2) areas heavily infested with dieback were not occupied; 3) gap crossing between patches (>400 m) was common behaviour; 4) koomal presence was linked to the extent of suitable vegetation; and 5) where the needs of koomal were met, populations in fragments were demographically similar to those found in contiguous landscapes. We used this information to resolve a more accurate SDM for the koomal than that created from bioclimatic data alone. Specifically, we refined spatial coverages of remnant vegetation and dieback, to develop a set of variables that we combined with selected bioclimatic variables to construct models. We conclude that the utility value of an SDM can be enhanced and given greater resolution by identifying variables that reflect observed, species-specific responses to landscape parameters and incorporating these responses into the model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Murray dairy region produces approximately 1.85 billion litres of milk each year, representing about 20 % of Australia's total annual milk production. An ongoing production challenge in this region is the management of the impacts of heat stress during spring and summer. An increase in the frequency and severity of extreme temperature events due to climate change may result in additional heat stress and production losses. This paper assesses the changing nature of heat stress now, and into the future, using historical data and climate change projections for the region using the temperature humidity index (THI). Projected temperature and relative humidity changes from two global climate models (GCMs), CSIRO MK3.5 and CCR-MIROC-H, have been used to calculate THI values for 2025 and 2050, and summarized as mean occurrence of, and mean length of consecutive high heat stress periods. The future climate scenarios explored show that by 2025 an additional 12-15 days (compared to 1971 to 2000 baseline data) of moderate to severe heat stress are likely across much of the study region. By 2050, larger increases in severity and occurrence of heat stress are likely (i.e. an additional 31-42 moderate to severe heat stress days compared with baseline data). This increasing trend will have a negative impact on milk production among dairy cattle in the region. The results from this study provide useful insights on the trends in THI in the region. Dairy farmers and the dairy industry could use these results to devise and prioritise adaptation options to deal with projected increases in heat stress frequency and severity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The south-west of Australia is being affected by a warming, drying trend in its climate. In response to these changing climatic conditions, as well as changes in farm commodity price relativities, farmers have adjusted their mix of enterprises to favour cereal production. As a result, an increasing potential source of cereal straw for bioenergy production has emerged. This paper examines how temporal and spatial costs of cereal straw accumulation may affect the establishment of a bioenergy plant in the region, with climate change impacts being highlighted. Logistics models based on mathematical programming are constructed for a range of plant sizes. Modelling results identify the cost structures of cereal straw accumulation for these plant sizes. Plant sizes are characterised by different cost structures and levels of volatility in their costs of grain accumulation. The profitability of bioenergy production based on cereal straw in this region of Australia is particularly exposed to climate variability, especially for larger plant sizes. The projected change in climate supports a relatively small reduction in the costs of cereal straw accumulation. These findings will affect decision-making over investment in a long-lived specific asset such as a bioenergy processing plant. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In comparison with drylands elsewhere, the unpredictability of rainfall in central Australia is globally distinctive. The transformative rhythms of arid Australia reflect extremes of climatic conditions rather than seasons, and are characterized by irregular pulses of productivity that punctuate long periods of drought. These decadal-scale dynamics are only now beginning to be understood. Further complications in predicting and managing the biological processes within these landscapes arise from the vast spatial extent of arid and semi-arid communities, and increasing recognition of the heterogeneities that drive the formation of patterns across multiple scales. In 2010 and 2011 flooding rains broke long-standing rainfall records and triggered an anticipated greening of the typically dry red landscapes of central Australia. These unusual climatic events provided an unparalleled opportunity to test ideas about productivity and function, bottom-up versus top-down effects, and differential responses of biota that reflect landscape connections and heterogeneity. Migrations of species outside their known ranges, irruptions of rodents and redistribution of resources are just a few of the novel observations that were reported. The transformation of the landscape also presented land managers with challenges stemming from the influx of invasive species that trigger novel ecological interactions and processes. The papers presented in this special issue describe how ecologists and managers responded to the unprecedented rainfall events, key lessons that we have learnt, and practical recommendations on how to improve conservation outcomes for the fragile inland environment into the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts an increase of 0.2 °C per decade for the next two decades in global temperatures and a rise of between 1.5 and 4.5 °C by the year 2100. Related to the increase in world temperatures is the increase in Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) which are primarily made up of carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4) and fluorinated gases. In 2004, the GHGs from agriculture contributed 14% of the overall global GHGs made up mainly of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions. In Australia, the dominant source of CH4 and N2O emissions for the year ending June 2012 was found to be from the agricultural sector. With the recent introduction of the Clean Energy Act 2011, the agricultural sector of Australia is expected to develop appropriate GHG mitigation strategies to maintain and improve its competitiveness in the green commodity market. This paper proposes the use of Integrated Spatial Technologies (IST) framework by linking Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographical Information Systems (GIS). The IST approach also integrates and highlights the use of Cleaner Production (CP) strategies for the formulation and application of cost-effective GHG mitigation options for grain production in Western Australia (WA). In this study, the IST framework was tested using data from an existing study (the baseline study) and two mitigation options. The analysis results revealed production and use of fertiliser as the “hotspot”, and for mitigation purposes was replaced with pig manure in option 1, whereas option 2 emphasised crop rotation system/s. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Background: Climate change is associated with greater frequency, duration, intensity and unpredictability of certain weather-related events, including floods. Floods harm mental health. There is limited understanding of the mental health and well-being effects from river flooding, particularly over the longer term and in rural contexts. This paper describes the rationale, aims, objectives, study design and socio-demographic characteristics of the sample for a study measuring associations between flood experience and mental health and wellbeing of residents (particularly those most likely to be negatively impacted and hard to reach) in rural NSW Australia 6 months following a devastating flood in 2017. To our knowledge, the study is the first of its kind within Australia in a rural community and is an important initiative given the likelihood of an increasing frequency of severe flooding in Australia given climate change.Methods: A conceptual framework (The Flood Impact Framework) drawing on social ecological approaches was developed by the research team. It was based on the literature and feedback from the community. The Framework describes putative relationships between flood exposure and mental health and wellbeing outcomes. Within a community-academic partnership approach, a cross-sectional survey was then undertaken to quantify and further explore these relationships.Results: The cross-sectional survey was conducted online (including on mobile phone) and on paper between September and November 2017 and recruited 2530 respondents. Of those, 2180 provided complete demographic data, among whom 69% were women, 91% were aged 25-74, 4% identified as Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander, 9% were farmers and 33% were business owners.Conclusions: The study recruited a wide range of respondents and the partnership facilitated the community's engagement with the design and implementation of the study. The study will provide a basis for a follow-up study, that will aim to improve the understanding of mental health and wellbeing effects over the longer term. It will provide an important and original contribution to understanding river flooding and mental health in rural Australia, a topic that will grow in importance in the context of human-induced climate change, and identify critical opportunities to strengthen services, emergency planning and resilience to future flooding. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hydrogen is fast becoming a new international "super fuel" to accelerate global climate change ambitions. This paper has two inter-weaving themes. Contextually, it focuses on the potential impact of the EU's new Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on fossil fuel-generated as opposed to green hydrogen imports. The CBAM, as a transnational carbon adjustment mechanism, has the potential to impact international trade in energy. It seeks both a level playing field between imports and EU internal markets (subject to ambitious EU climate change policies), and to encourage emissions reduction laggards through its "carbon diplomacy". Countries without a price on carbon will be charged for embodied carbon in their supply chains when they export to the EU. Empirically, we focus on two hydrogen export/import case studies: Australia as a non-EU state with ambitions to export hydrogen, and Germany as an EU Member State reliant on energy imports. Energy security is central to energy trade debates but needs to be conceptualized beyond supply and demand economics to include geopolitics, just transitions and the impacts of border carbon taxes and EU carbon diplomacy. Accordingly, we apply and further develop a seven-dimension energy security-justice framework to the examples of brown, blue and green hydrogen export/import hydrogen operations, with varying carbon-intensity supply chains, in Australia and Germany. Applying the framework, we identify potential impact—risks and opportunities—associated with identified brown, blue and green hydrogen export/import projects in the two countries. This research contributes to the emerging fields of international hydrogen trade, supply chains, and international carbon diplomacy and develops a potentially useful seven-dimension energy security-justice framework for energy researchers and policy analysts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to evaluate the life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of importing electrical power into Singapore, generated from a large-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) power plant in Australia, through a long-distance subsea high-voltage direct current (HVDC) cable. A cost optimization model was developed to estimate the capacities of the system components. A comprehensive life cycle assessment model was built to estimate emissions of manufacturing and use of these components. Our evaluation shows that, for covering one fifth of Singapore's electrical energy needs, a system with an installed capacity of 13 G W P V , 17 GWh battery storage and 3.2 G W subsea cable is required. The life cycle GHG emissions of such a system are estimated to be 110 g CO 2 eq/ kWh , with the majority coming from the manufacturing of solar PV panels. Cable manufacturing does not contribute largely toward GHG emissions. By varying full-load hours and cable lengths, it was assessed that sites closer to Singapore might provide the same energy at same/lower carbon footprint and reduced cost, despite the lower insolation as compared to Australia. However, these sites could cause greater emissions from land use changes than the deserts of Australia, offsetting the advantages of a shorter HVDC cable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change modelling has identified south-east Australia as a ‘hot spot’ for more frequent climatic extremes. Rural landholders may be vulnerable to the risks climate change presents. Australia''s rural landholders are considered highly adaptable, with a history of responding to climatic uncertainty and variability. Yet it is possible that some of their adaptations will not be effective in reducing vulnerability, and may have downstream impacts. Rural landholder decision making is complex, and this is one of a limited number of papers examining rural landholder responses to climate change and the factors influencing their decisions. Data were gathered using semi-structured interviews and a mail survey of rural landholders in two districts. Established socio-psychological scales were employed to measure beliefs, values and attitudes that are expected to shape landholder behaviour. Most of the rural landholders surveyed were not climate change ‘deniers’ with 70% agreeing that the climate is changing and that human activity is a major influence. Climate change was nominated as an influence on six adaptive behaviours by 50% or more of survey respondents. However, there were no significant relationships between belief in climate change and adaptive actions. Personal values and worldviews were found to be the most frequent factors linked to adaptive behaviour. These findings illustrate the complex nature of rural landholder decision making: suggesting that many rural landholders do not need convincing of the existence of climate change; and that efforts to motivate rural landholders to respond to climate change risks should be based on sound knowledge of their values and worldviews. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper presents the climate change impact on mean annual runoff across continental Australia estimated using the Budyko and Fu equations informed by projections from 15 global climate models and compares the estimates with those from extensive hydrological modeling. The results show runoff decline in southeast and far southwest Australia, but elsewhere across the continent there is no clear agreement between the global climate models in the direction of future precipitation and runoff change. Averaged across large regions, the estimates from the Budyko and Fu equations are reasonably similar to those from the hydrological models. The simplicity of the Budyko equation, the similarity in the results, and the large uncertainty in global climate model projections of future precipitation suggest that the Budyko equation is suitable for estimating climate change impact on mean annual runoff across large regions. The Budyko equation is particularly useful for data-limited regions, for studies where only estimates of climate change impact on long-term water availability are needed, and for investigative assessments prior to a detailed hydrological modeling study. The Budyko and Fu equations are, however, limited to estimating the change in mean annual runoff for a given change in mean annual precipitation and potential evaporation. The hydrological models, on the other hand, can also take into account potential changes in the subannual and other climate characteristics as well as provide a continuous simulation of daily and monthly runoff, which is important for many water availability studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Uncertainty around long-term droughts and water scarcity has been increasing as the impacts of El Nino cycles are felt globally. Understanding how the effects of these events are manifested on the ground in communities is particularly important if governments and associated agencies are to respond appropriately. Using a qualitative approach, this paper examines the impacts of drought on two rural towns in Victoria, Australia, and explores what lessons can be drawn from local experiences. The research suggests that previous responses to drought by governments have been largely ineffectual and as such, we question whether there is a need to reshape institutional understandings of what adapting to drought might mean. This research, therefore, seeks to further the discussion surrounding drought impacts and the myriad of challenges associated with it by drawing on locally situated knowledge to inform future decision-making in this evolving field of study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Statistical methods commonly used for forecasting climate and streamflows require the selection of appropriate predictors. Poorly designed predictor selection procedures can result in poor forecasts for independent events. This paper introduces a predictor selection method for the Bayesian joint probability modeling approach to seasonal streamflow forecasting at multiple sites. The method compares forecasting models using a pseudo-Bayes factor (PsBF). A stepwise expansion of a base model is carried out by including the candidate predictor with the highest PsBF that exceeds a selection threshold. Predictors representing the initial catchment conditions are selected on their ability to forecast streamflows and predictors representing future climate influences are selected on their ability to forecast rainfall. The final forecasting model combines selected predictors representing both initial catchment conditions and future climate influences to jointly forecast seasonal streamflows and rainfall. Applications of the predictor selection method to two catchments in eastern Australia show that the best predictors representing initial catchment conditions and future climate influences vary with location and forecast date. Antecedent streamflows are the best indicator of the initial catchment conditions. Predictors representing future climate influences are only selected for forecasts made between July and January. Indicators of El Niño dominate the selected predictors representing future climate influences. The skill of streamflow forecasts varies considerably between locations and throughout the year. Skill scores for the perennial streams of the Goulburn River catchment exceed 40%% for several seasons, while for the intermittent streams in the Burdekin River catchment, the skill scores are lower. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Atmospheric CO2 is a major cause of reinforcement corrosion in bridges, buildings, wharves, and other concrete infrastructure in Australia, United States, United Kingdom and most other countries. The increase in CO2 levels associated with global warming will increase the likelihood of carbonation-induced corrosion. Moreover, temperature rises will increase corrosion rates. Clearly, the impact of climate change on existing and new infrastructure is considerable, as corrosion damage is disruptive to society and costly to repair. The paper describes a probabilistic and reliability-based approach that predicts the probability of corrosion initiation and damage (severe cracking) for concrete infrastructure subjected to carbonation and chloride-induced corrosion resulting from elevated CO2 levels and temperatures. The atmospheric CO2 concentration and local temperature and relative humidity changes with time over the next 100 years in the Australian cities of Sydney and Darwin are projected based on nine General Circulation Models (GCMs) under (i) high CO2 emission scenario, (ii) medium CO2 emission scenario, and (iii) CO2 emission reduction scenario based on policy intervention. The probabilistic analysis included the uncertainty of CO2 concentration, deterioration processes, material properties, dimensions, and predictive models. It was found that carbonation-induced damage risks can increase by over 400% over a time period to 2100 for some regions in Australia. Damage risks for chloride-induced corrosion increase by no more than 15% over the same time period due to temperature increase, but without consideration of ocean acidity change in marine exposure. Corrosion loss of reinforcement is not significant. The results were most sensitive to increases in atmospheric CO2. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper reports on a workshop conducted in Australia in 2010, entitled 'Management, Conservation, and Scientific Challenges on Subtropical Reefs under Climate Change'. The workshop brought together 26 experts actively involved in the science and management of subtropical reefs. Its primary aim was to identify the areas of research that need to be most urgently addressed to improve the decision-making framework for managers of subtropical reefs. The main findings of the workshop were a sustainable subtropical reefs declaration that highlights seven research priorities for subtropical reefs. These are to (i) conduct research and management activities across local government, state and bioregion borders; (ii) understand natural variability of environmental conditions; (iii) quantify socio-economic factors and ecosystem services; (iv) benchmark cross-realm connectivity; (v) know marine population connectivity; (vi) habitat mapping and ecological research; and (v) determine refugia. These findings are hoped to form a basis for focussing research efforts, leveraging funds and assisting managers with allocation of resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Recent acknowledgement of the sensitivity of air quality to changes in climate has initiated a closer examination of the relationships between meteorology and air quality. This paper presents the estimated response of daily air pollutant concentrations in Melbourne, Australia to local-scale meteorology. The meteorological-pollutant relationships have been assessed after controlling for long-term trends, seasonality, weekly emissions, spatial variation, and temporal persistence using the framework of generalized additive models (GAMs). Overall, results found that the aggregate impact of meteorological variables in the models explained 26.3% of the variance in O3, 21.1% in PM10, and 26.7% in NO2. This indicates that meteorology – at the local-scale, is a relatively strong driver of air quality in Melbourne. Analysis of partial residuals plots found that changes in temperature, particularly when above 35 °C, resulted in the strongest positive response for O3 (150%), PM10 (150%) and NO2 (120%). Other variables (boundary layer height, winds, water vapor pressure, radiation, precipitation, and mean sea-level pressure) displayed some importance for one or more of the pollutants, but their impact in the models was less pronounced. In sum, we provide results that form a solid foundation for understanding the importance of local-scale meteorology as a driver of regional air pollution. Additionally, these results can be used to provide a window into how changes in climate may affect air quality. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Restoration of abandoned and degraded ecosystems through enhanced management of mature remnant patches and naturally regenerating (regrowth) forests is currently being used in the recovery of ecosystems for biodiversity protection and carbon sequestration. Knowledge of long-term dynamics of these ecosystems is often very limited. Vegetation models that examine long-term forest growth and succession of uneven aged, mixed-species forest ecosystems are integral to the planning and assessment of the recovery process of biodiversity values and biomass accumulation. This paper examined the use of the Ecosystem Dynamics Simulator (EDS) in projecting growth dynamics of mature remnant brigalow forest communities and recovery process of regrowth brigalow thickets. We used data from 188 long-term monitored plots of remnant and regrowth forests measured between 1963 and 2010. In this study the model was parameterised for 34 tree and shrub species and tested with independent long-term measurements. The model closely approximated actual development trajectories of mature forests and regrowth thickets but some inaccuracies in estimating regeneration through asexual reproduction and mortality were noted as reflected in stem density projections of remnant plots that had a mean of absolute relative bias of 46.2 (±12.4)%. Changes in species composition in remnant forests were projected with a 10% error. Basal area values observed in all remnant plots ranged from 6 to 29m2 ha−1 and EDS projections between 1966 and 2005 (39 years) were 68.2 (±10.9)% of the observed basal area. Projected live aboveground biomass of remnant plots had a mean of 93.5 (±5.9)tha−1 compared to a mean of 91.3 (±8.0)tha−1 observed in the plots. In regrowth thicket, the model produced satisfactory projections of tree density (91%), basal area (89%), height (87%) and aboveground biomass (84%) compared to the observed attributes. Basal area and biomass accumulation in 45-year-old regrowth plots was approximately similar to that in remnant forests but recovery of woody understorey was very slow. The model projected that it would take 95 years for the regrowth to thin down to similar densities observed in original or remnant brigalow forests. These results indicated that EDS can produce relatively accurate projections of growth dynamics of brigalow regrowth forests necessary for informing restoration planning and projecting biomass accumulation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Water management in Australia has traditionally been carried out on the assumption that the historical record of rainfall, evaporation, streamflow, and recharge is representative of current and future climatic conditions. However, in many circumstances, this does not adequately address the potential risks to supply security for towns, industry, irrigators, and the environment. This is because the Australian climate varies markedly due to natural cycles that operate over periods of several years to several decades. There is also serious concern about how anthropogenic climate change may exacerbate drought risk in the future. In this paper, the frequency and severity of droughts are analyzed during a range of “climate states” (e.g., different phases of the Pacific, Indian, and/or Southern Oceans) to demonstrate that drought risk varies markedly over interannual through to multidecadal time scales. Importantly, by accounting for climate variability and change on multitemporal scales (e.g., interdecadal, multidecadal, and the palaeo scale), it is demonstrated that the risk of failure of current drought management practices may be better assessed and more robust climate adaptation responses developed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Disturbance of forested catchments by fire, logging, or other natural or human induced events that alter the evapotranspiration regime may be a substantial threat to domestic, environmental and industrial water supplies. This paper describes the physically-based modelling of the long term changes in water yield from two wildfire affected catchments in north-eastern Victoria, Australia, and of fire and climate change scenarios in Melbourne''s principal water supply catchment. The effect of scale, data availability and quality, and of forest species parameterisation are explored. The modelling demonstrates the importance of precipitation inputs, with Nash and Sutcliffe Coefficients of Efficiency of predicted versus observed monthly flows increasing from 0.5 to 0.8 with a higher density of rainfall stations, and where forest types are well parameterised. Total predicted flow volumes for the calibrations were within 1% of the observed for the Mitta Mitta River catchment and <4% for the Thomson River, but almost −10% for the less well parameterised Tambo River. Despite the issues of data availability simulations demonstrated the potential for significant impacts to water supply in SE Australia from wildfire and climate change. For example, for the catchments modelled the moderate climate change impact on water yield was more pronounced than the worst fire scenario. Both modelled cases resulted in long term water yield declines exceeding 20%, with the climate change impact nearing 30%. A simulation using observed data for the first four post-fire years at the Mitta Mitta River catchment showed Macaque was able to accurately predict total flow. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The future rainfall series used to drive hydrological models in most climate change impact studies is informed by global climate models (GCMs). This paper compares future runoff projections in ∼11 000 0.25° grid cells across Australia from a daily rainfall–runoff model driven with future daily rainfall series obtained using three simple scaling methods, informed by 14 GCMs. In the constant scaling and daily scaling methods, the historical daily rainfall series is scaled by the relative difference between GCM simulations for the future and historical climates. The constant scaling method scales all the daily rainfall by the same factor, and the daily scaling method takes into account changes in the daily rainfall distribution by scaling the different daily rainfall amounts differently. In the daily translation method, the GCM future daily rainfall series is translated to a 0.25° gridcell rainfall series using the relationship established between the historical GCM-scale rainfall and 0.25° gridcell rainfall data. The daily scaling and daily translation methods generally give higher extreme and annual runoff than the constant scaling method because they take into account the increase in extreme daily rainfall (which generates significant runoff) simulated by the large majority of the GCMs. However, the difference between the mean annual runoff simulated with future daily rainfall series obtained using the constant versus daily scaling methods is generally less than 5%, which is relatively smaller than the range of runoff results from the different GCMs of 30%–40%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The need to improve environmental management in Australia is urgent because human health, well-being and social stability all depend ultimately on maintenance of life-supporting ecological processes. Ecological science can inform this effort, but when issues are socially and economically complex the inclination is to wait for science to provide answers before acting. Increasingly, managers and policy-makers will be called on to use the present state of scientific knowledge to supply reasonable inferences for action based on imperfect knowledge. Hence, one challenge is to use existing ecological knowledge more effectively; a second is to tackle the critical unanswered ecological questions. This paper identifies areas of environmental management that are profoundly hindered by an inability of science to answer basic questions, in contrast to those areas where knowledge is not the major barrier to policy development and management. Of the 22 big questions identified herein, more than half are directly related to climate change. Several of the questions concern our limited understanding of the dynamics of marine systems. There is enough information already available to develop effective policy and management to address several significant ecological issues. We urge ecologists to make better use of existing knowledge in dialogue with policy-makers and land managers. Because the challenges are enormous, ecologists will increasingly be engaging a wide range of other disciplines to help identify pathways towards a sustainable future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to significant weather variabilities of rainfalls, potential water savings through rainwater tanks are expected to vary significantly. Moreover, within some large cities, significant spatial variations are reported. With the emerging impacts of climate change, existing weather and spatial variabilities of potential water savings are also likely to be changed, which are unknown to the end-users. This paper presents the impacts of climate change on current weather and spatial variabilities of potential water savings for Adelaide, a large city in Australia. Future daily rainfall data was collected from a data portal provided by the Australian government derived through a statistical downscaling modelling. Projected daily rainfall data was fed to an earlier developed daily water balance model (eTank) to calculate water savings for three future periods; 2030–2050, 2055–2075 and 2080–2100. Three weathers (dry, average and wet) in each period were considered along with two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and two tank sizes (5 kL and 10 kL). It is found that varying outcomes without any general trend are expected depending on the projection scenario, period and weather condition. Contrary to the general perception, it is found that in several cases, the potential water savings are expected to increase compared to the current climate. Most of those expected increases in water savings are attributed to the projection scenario of RCP 4.5, in the near future and in dry years. In the far-future and with the projection scenario of RCP 8.5, most of the potential water savings are expected to decrease compared to the current climate. Regarding changes in spatial variability of water savings, it is found that the spatial variability will decrease in the near future, but will increase towards the far future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]