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AI chatbots such as ChatGPT help people produce texts. According to media reporting, these texts are also used for educational purposes. Thus, AI influences people's knowledge and perception of current issues. This paper examines the narrative of ChatGPT's stories on climate change. Our explorative analysis reveals that ChatGPT's stories on climate change show a relatively uniform structure and similar content. Generally, the narrative is in line with scientific knowledge on climate change; the stories convey no significant misinformation. However, specific topics in current debates on global warming are conspicuously missing. According to the ChatGPT narrative, humans as a species are responsible for climate change and specific economic activities or actors associated with carbon emissions play no role. Analogously, the social structuration of vulnerability to climate impacts and issues of climate justice are hardly addressed. ChatGPT's narrative consists of de-politicized stories that are highly optimistic about technological progress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic is rapidly warming posing a significant threat to underlying permafrost. Permafrost degradation has already resulted in extensive damage to the Arctic's built infrastructure, putting communities and industries at risk. Projected climate warming will further reduce the capacity of permafrost to support infrastructure, thereby requiring a rethinking of construction and development of permafrost regions in the future. This paper focuses on three Arctic regions with a substantial presence of population and infrastructure on permafrost: USA (Alaska), Canada, and Russia. The three regions' permafrost construction practices are examined in order to identify best practices and major gaps. We identify a lack of standardized, codified construction guidelines; an absence of permafrost-geotechnical monitoring in communities; barriers to integrating climate scenarios into future planning; limited data sharing; and low numbers of permafrost professionals as major constraints limiting the region's resilience in the face of climate change. Refining building practices and standards, implementing operational permafrost monitoring systems, developing downscaled climate projections, and integrating local knowledge will minimize the impacts of permafrost degradation under rapidly warming climatic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is a critical issue of our time, and its causes, pathways, and forecasts remain a topic of broader discussion. In this paper, we present a novel data driven pathway analysis framework to identify the key processes behind mean global temperature and sea level rise, and to forecast the magnitude of their increase from the present to 2100. Based on historical data and dynamic statistical modeling alone, we have established the causal pathways that connect increasing greenhouse gas emissions to increasing global mean temperature and sea level, with its intermediate links encompassing humidity, sea ice coverage, and glacier mass, but not for sunspot numbers. Our results indicate that if no action is taken to curb anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, the global average temperature would rise to an estimated 3.28 °C (2.46–4.10 °C) above its pre-industrial level while the global sea level would be an estimated 573 mm (474–671 mm) above its 2021 mean by 2100. However, if countries adhere to the greenhouse gas emission regulations outlined in the 2021 United Nations Conference on Climate Change (COP26), the rise in global temperature would lessen to an average increase of 1.88 °C (1.43–2.33 °C) above its pre-industrial level, albeit still higher than the targeted 1.5 °C, while the sea level increase would reduce to 449 mm (389–509 mm) above its 2021 mean by 2100. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Paleontological studies of the distant past and historical chronicles of the last millennia indicate that warming and cooling of the climate on our planet, replacing each other, have taken place in a continuous series. An important role in this process has been and is played by cosmic factors: variations in solar activity and parameters of the Earth's orbital motion in the gravitational field of the Sun and the planets of the Solar System. It is suggested that the currently observed climate change is associated with a decrease in the eccentricity of the Earth's orbit and the inclination of the axis of its rotation relative to the plane of the ecliptic, which has been going on for almost 30 thousand years. Both processes lead to changes in the boundaries of climatic zones. In the foreseeable future, these processes will proceed in the same direction. Therefore, the current trend towards climate change will continue. Despite the importance of addressing the problem of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions as soon as possible, this paper expresses doubts about the possibility of fending off climate warming in this way. It is proposed to focus on the development of mathematical climate models taking into account space factors and on finding the best ways to adapt industry, transport systems, and the environment to the conditions of expected climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many regions around the world are facing climate changes, with substantial increase in air temperature over the past decades, which is mainly related to continental and global warming forced by the higher greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The objectives of this study were to use the Köppen climate classification to detect local climate change based on a historical series of 100 years and to assess if such change is related to those that are occurring in other spatial scales as a likely consequence of increasing GHG. This paper brings a content full of innovative results. The study area presented an average annual air temperature increase by 0.9 °C between 1917 and 2016, rising from 21.4 °C for the first climatological normal (1917–1946) to 22.3 °C for the last one (1987–2016). Furthermore, in the summer months, the temperature rose from 24.5 to 25.3 °C, and in the winter months, such increase was from 17.1 (1917–1946) to 18.3 °C (1987–2016). Our findings showed the subtropical conditions (Cfa in Köppen's classification) in the study area persisted from the beginning of the analysis (1917–1946) until the climatological normal of 1979–2008, with a clear tendency of tropicalization after that with a change in the climate type of Piracicaba from subtropical to tropical, which can now be classified as tropical with dry winter (Aw climate type). The local average air temperature showed concordances with the long-term air temperature anomalies from regional, continental, and global scales, indicating that all of them may be linked with increasing GHG emissions, since well-defined long-term linear relationships (r2 = 0.99) were observed between continental and global average air temperature anomalies and atmospheric CO2 concentration observed at the NOAA Lab in Mauna Loa in the last 59 years. While the local and regional forcing effects remain to be fully unraveled, our study provided a valid and strong scientific sound evidence that climate change occurred in Piracicaba, southeastern Brazil, in the last 100 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In early studies, northern vegetation response to global warming recognised both increases in biomass/cover and shrinking of species' distributional ranges. Subsequent field measurements focussed on vegetation cover and biomass increases ("greening"), and more recently decreases ("browning"). However, satellite observations show that more than 50% of arctic vegetation has not changed significantly despite rapid warming. While absence of change in remote sensing data does not necessarily mean no ecological change on the ground, the significant proportion of the Arctic that appears to be stable in the face of considerable climate change points to a greater need to understand Arctic ecosystem stability. In this paper, we performed an extensive review of the available literature to seek balances or imbalances between research focussing on "greening", "browning" and "stability/no change". We find that greening studies dominate the literature though two relatively small areas of the Arctic are disproportionately represented for this main change process. Critically, there are too few studies anywhere investigating stability. We highlight the need to understand the mechanisms driving Arctic ecosystem stability, and the potential longer-term consequences of remaining stable in a rapidly changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past 50 years, temperatures on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) have risen roughly twice as fast as the global average, making it the most unpredictable region of environmental change due to global warming. In this paper, an Environmental Area Index model was developed using data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to assess the ecological risk faced by QTP ecosystems under the influence of climate factors. The results show that ecological risk gradually decreases from northwest to the southeast, and there are different trends in ecological risk for each class in areas with different elevation gradients. As elevation increased, the proportion of potential risk areas gradually decreased, and the proportion of high- and higher-risk areas gradually increased. We predict that in the period 2021–2100, the overall ecological risk change trend on the QTP will not be obvious, but there will be a more obvious change on the vertical gradient. In general, under the existing global climate change scenario, the ecological risk faced by the QTP show a decreasing trend under the influence of climate factors, and the decrease in ecological risks is much higher at higher elevations than at lower elevations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Air temperature is the main climatic variable for climate change and global warming assessment. In different regions, different climatic features and forcing factors affect air temperature behaviour and development differently. In this paper, time series of monthly and annual absolute minimum, mean and absolute maximum air temperatures measured in the period Jan. 1949–Dec. 2018 at two meteorological stations, Zagreb Grič and Lastovo, were analysed. The stations are situated in distinct climatological areas in geographically and climatologically completely opposite parts of Croatia. The climate of Zagreb Grič station is mild continental. Station Lastovo is located on the small isolated Adriatic Sea island, which has a hot Mediterranean climate. The distance by air between the two analysed meteorological stations is 340 km. In time series of the absolute annual minimum air temperatures measured at both analysed stations, an increasing trend is not statistically significant, while in the time series of mean annual and absolute annual maximum air temperatures, the trends are statistically significant at the level p<0.01. The statistically significant trend of air temperature increase at both stations appeared in the warm season of the year generally from May to August. The day-to-day (DTD) method established a decrease in night-time to night-time air temperature variability, and an increase in the day-time to day-time temperature variability at Lastovo. In Zagreb Grič, the situation is the opposite but the process is very slow. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An Erratum to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1134/S1028334X23070188 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we examine the epochal changes in the frequency of cyclones over the North Indian Ocean during the pre-onset and onset phases of the monsoon. We consider three epochs; namely, the early (1955–74), middle (1975–94) and recent (1995–2014) epochs. It is found that the number of cyclones in the Bay of Bengal (BOB) decreases throughout the three epochs. Over the Arabian Sea (ARB), however, there is a decrease in the early epoch, before then reaching a minimum in the middle epoch followed by an increase in the recent epoch, thus exhibiting epochal variability. Dynamic and thermodynamic parameters along with Genesis Potential Index (GPI) are examined to understand the frequency variation in cyclogenesis over the ARB and BOB. Over the ARB, thermodynamic factors such as mid-level moisture, surface latent heat flux and sensible heat flux, and dynamic parameters such as lower-level convergence and upper-level divergence, are favorable during the early and recent epochs but unfavorable during the middle epoch, and these results are found to be consistent with the observed epochal variability in the frequency of cyclogenesis. However, all these influential parameters are found to have decreased over the BOB during the entire 60-year period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Characterizing the response of temperature variables to agricultural irrigation is expected to be an important challenge for understanding the full impact of water management on regional climate change. In this paper, the trend analysis and abrupt change test were applied to detect the global warming effect. Then, the quantitative irrigation-induced cooling effects on temperature variables between April and August from 1970 to 2010 in the Lhasa River basin were estimated using historical time series of gridded meteorological records and a map of the area equipped for irrigation. Trends in the maximum temperature (Tmax) were statistically positive, and a significant increasing trend for the minimum temperature (Tmin) was detected at the 0.01 and 0.05 confidence levels. No abrupt changing point of warming was detected in the time series for Tmax. The abrupt changes in Tmin in the irrigation concentration period took place in 1995, 5 years later than the corresponding change in April. Affected by global warming, the increase in temperature was the largest in July and August, when the irrigation-induced cooling effect was also the most significant. The irrigation-induced cooling effect for Tmax and Tmin in April–August (except for June) ranged from − 0.017 to − 0.009 °C/decade and from − 0.011 to − 0.001 °C/decade, respectively, and the cooling effect for diurnal temperature range (DTR) ranged from − 0.011 to 0 °C/decade. The cooling effect on temperature reached above 0.01 °C in July and August, but for the growing seasons, the effect was weak, only 0.001 °C. The Tmax and Tmin trends during the whole growing seasons decreased by both 0.002 °C/decade, respectively, with a 10% increase in irrigation land proportion. Even in July and August, the trends were expected to decrease by about 0.005 °C/decade with a 10% increase in irrigation land proportion. The irrigation-induced cooling effect could partially slow global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming is predicted to impact high-latitude and high-altitude forests severely, jeopardizing their overall functioning and carbon storage, both of which depend on the warming response of tree fine root systems. This paper investigates the effect of soil warming on the biomass, morphology and colonizing ectomycorrhizal community of spruce fine and absorptive fine roots. We compare the responses of spruce roots growing at a man-made long-term soil warming (+ 4°C) experiment to results obtained from a geothermal soil temperature gradient (+ 1 to + 14°C) extending to the forest die-off edge, to shed light on the generalizability of the warming response and reveal any thresholds in acclimation ability. Trees in warmer soils formed longer and less-branched absorptive roots with higher specific root length and area, and lower root tissue density in both spruce stands, irrespective of warming method and location. Soil warming at the experimental warming site also supported the occurrence of a more varied EcM community and an increase in the abundance of Tomentella spp., indicating a shift in nutrient foraging. Fine and absorptive fine root biomass decreased toward warmer soil, with a sharp reduction occurring between + 4 and + 6°C from the ambient and leading to the collapse of the fine root system at the geothermal gradient. At the experimental warming site, the applied + 4°C warming had no effect on fine and absorptive fine root biomass. The similar fine root responses at the two warming sites suggest that the observations possibly reflect general acclimation patterns in spruce forests to global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summer precipitation anomalies over eastern China are characterized spatially by meridionally banded structures fluctuating on interannual and interdecadal timescales, leading to regional droughts and floods. In addition to long-term trends, how these patterns may change under global warming has important implications for agricultural planning and water resources over this densely populated area. Using the latest Hadley Centre climate model, HadGEM3-GC2, this paper investigates the potential response of summer precipitation patterns over this region, by comparing the leading modes between a 4×CO2 simulation and the model’s pre-industrial control simulation. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analyses show that the first two leading modes account for about 20% of summer rainfall variability. EOF1 is a monopole mode associated with the developing phase of ENSO events and EOF2 is a dipole mode associated with the decaying phase of ENSO. Under 4×CO2 forcing, the dipole mode with a south-north orientation becomes dominant because of a strengthened influence from excessive warming of the Indian Ocean. On interdecadal time scales, the first EOF looks very different from the control simulation, showing a dipole mode of east-west contrast with enhanced influence from high latitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reports on changes in the dates of the beginning, end, and duration of the stable cold and warm seasons in Russia in the second half of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century. For 2001-2015, the duration of the cold period was significantly reduced by 30 days almost throughout the country. In the eastern European part of Russia, Southern Urals, these changes were caused by a later beginning of the winter; on the remaining territory, this happened because of the date shifting for both the beginning and the end of the stable cold season. The duration of the warm period increases everywhere due to the earlier end of the spring, except for south of the European part of Russia, Southern Yakutia, and the northern part of Western Siberia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adaption for temperature should be suitable to local conditions for regional differences in temperature change features. This paper proposed to utilize nine temperature modes that joint the trend (increasing/decreasing/unchanged) with variability (intensifying/weakening/unchanged) to investigate features of temperature change in mainland China. Monthly temperature data over the period 1960-2013 were obtained from 522 national basic and reference meteorological stations. Here, temperature trend (TT) was reflected by the trend of mean annual temperature (MAT) and the uptrend (downtrend) of inter-monthly sliding standard deviation (SSD) series with a sliding length of 29 years (348 months) was used for representing the intensification (weakening) of temperature variability (TV). The Mann-Kendall method and the least squares method were applied to assess the significance and quantify the magnitude of trend in MAT and SSD time series, respectively. The results show that there is a consistent warming trend throughout the country except for only three stations in which a cooling trend is identified. Moreover, the overall increasing rate in the north of 35° N is the highest, over 0.4 °C/decade for most stations. TV is weakened for almost 98% of the stations, indicating the low instability of temperature at a national scale. Finally, temperature mode (TM), for more than 90% of the stations, is the combination of an increasing TT with a weakened TV (mode 8). So, it is more important for people to adapt to the increasing temperature in these regions. Compared to using annual temperature data to calculate SSD, monthly data can accurately reflect the inter-monthly change of temperature and reserve more initial characteristics of temperature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mitigation and adaptation represent two solutions to the issue of global warming. While mitigation aims at reducing $$\hbox {CO}_2$$ emissions and preventing climate change, adaptation encompasses a broad scope of techniques used to reduce the impacts of climate change once they have occurred. Both have direct costs on a country's gross domestic product, but costs also arise from temperature increases due to inaction. This paper introduces a tipping point in a real options model and analyzes optimal investment choices in mitigation and their timing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper compares data from linearized and nonlinear Zebiak-Cane model, as constrained by observed sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA), in simulating central Pacific (CP) and eastern Pacific (EP) El Ni˜no. The difference between the temperature advections (determined by subtracting those of the linearized model from those of the nonlinear model), referred to here as the nonlinearly induced temperature advection change (NTA), is analyzed. The results demonstrate that the NTA records warming in the central equatorial Pacific during CP El Ni˜no and makes fewer contributions to the structural distinctions of the CP El Ni˜no, whereas it records warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific during EP El Ni˜no, and thus significantly promotes EP El Ni˜no during El Ni˜no-type selection. The NTA for CP and EP El Ni˜no varies in its amplitude, and is smaller in CP El Ni˜no than it is in EP El Ni˜no. These results demonstrate that CP El Ni˜no are weakly modulated by small intensities of NTA, and may be controlled by weak nonlinearity; whereas, EP El Ni˜no are significantly enhanced by large amplitudes of NTA, and are therefore likely to be modulated by relatively strong nonlinearity. These data could explain why CP El Ni˜no are weaker than EP El Ni˜no. Because the NTA for CP and EP El Ni˜no differs in spatial structures and intensities, as well as their roles within different El Ni˜no modes, the diversity of El Ni˜no may be closely related to changes in the nonlinear characteristics of the tropical Pacific. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper comments on the issue of global warming and climate change, in an attempt to provide fresh perspective. Essentially, five main arguments are made. First, that the process of modern economic development has been based on the burning of fossil fuels, and that this will continue to apply for the foreseeable future. Second, that in large part due to momentum in economic and demographic processes, it is inevitable that there will be a major rise in atmospheric CO2 during the present century. Third, that available data on global temperatures suggest strongly that the coming warming will be appreciably faster than anything that humanity has experienced during historical times. Moreover, especially in a system that is being forced, the chance of an abrupt change in climate happening must be rated as fair. Fourth, that while it is impossible to attach precise probabilities to different scenarios, the range of plausible unpleasant climate outcomes seems at least as great as the range of more manageable ones. The consequences of future climate change may be considerable; indeed, they could be almost inconceivable—with several negative changes occurring simultaneously and to cumulative adverse effect. There is an urgent need to improve ways of thinking about what could happen. Fifth, the paper maintains that the human response to other difficult ‘long’ threats—such as that posed by HIV/AIDS—reveals a broadly analogous sequence of social reactions (e.g. denial, avoidance, recrimination) to that which is unfolding with respect to carbon emissions and climate change. Therefore the view expressed here is that major behavioral change to limit world carbon emissions is unlikely in the foreseeable future, and that the broad sway of future events is probably now set to run its course. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP) in the ocean can affect tropical cyclone intensity and intensification. In this paper, TCHP change under global warming is presented based on 35 models from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5). As the upper ocean warms up, the TCHP of the global ocean is projected to increase by 140.6% in the 21st century under the RCP4.5 (+4.5 W m Representative Concentration Pathway) scenario. The increase is particularly significant in the western Pacific, northwestern Indian and western tropical Atlantic oceans. The increase of TCHP results from the ocean temperature warming above the depth of the 26°C isotherm (D26), the deepening of D26, and the horizontal area expansion of SST above 26°C. Their contributions are 69.4%, 22.5% and 8.1%, respectively. Further, a suite of numerical experiments with an Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM) is conducted to investigate the relative importance of wind stress and buoyancy forcing to the TCHP change under global warming. Results show that sea surface warming is the dominant forcing for the TCHP change, while wind stress and sea surface salinity change are secondary. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We evaluated the potential impact of future climate change on spring maize and single-crop rice in northeastern China (NEC) by employing climate and crop models. Based on historical data, diurnal temperature change exhibited a distinct negative relationship with maize yield, whereas minimum temperature correlated positively to rice yield. Corresponding to the evaluated climate change derived from coupled climate models included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 scenario (RCP4.5), the projected maize yield changes for three future periods [2010-39 (period 1), 2040-69 (period 2), and 2070-99 (period 3)] relative to the mean yield in the baseline period (1976-2005) were 2.92%, 3.11% and 2.63%, respectively. By contrast, the evaluated rice yields showed slightly larger increases of 7.19%, 12.39%, and 14.83%, respectively. The uncertainties in the crop response are discussed by considering the uncertainties obtained from both the climate and the crop models. The range of impact of the uncertainty became markedly wider when integrating these two sources of uncertainty. The probabilistic assessments of the evaluated change showed maize yield to be relatively stable from period 1 to period 3, while the rice yield showed an increasing trend over time. The results presented in this paper suggest a tendency of the yields of maize and rice in NEC to increase (but with great uncertainty) against the background of global warming, which may offer some valuable guidance to government policymakers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mid-Pliocene warm period was the most recent geological period in Earth's history that featured long-term warming. Both geological evidence and model results indicate that East Asian summer winds (EASWs) strengthened in monsoonal China, and that East Asian winter winds (EAWWs) weakened in northern monsoonal China during this period, as compared to the pre-industrial period. However, the corresponding mechanisms are still unclear. In this paper, the results of a set of numerical simulations are reported to analyze the effects of changed boundary conditions on the mid-Pliocene East Asian monsoon climate, based on PRISM3 (Pliocene Research Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping) palaeoenvironmental reconstruction. The model results showed that the combined changes of sea surface temperatures, atmospheric CO concentration, and ice sheet extent were necessary to generate an overall warm climate on a large scale, and that these factors exerted the greatest effects on the strengthening of EASWs in monsoonal China. The orographic change produced significant local warming and had the greatest effect on the weakening of EAWWs in northern monsoonal China in the mid-Pliocene. Thus, these two factors both had important but different effects on the monsoon change. In comparison, the effects of vegetational change on the strengthened EASWs and weakened EAWWs were relatively weak. The changed monsoon winds can be explained by a reorganization of the meridional temperature gradient and zonal thermal contrast. Moreover, the effect of orbital parameters cannot be ignored. Results showed that changes in orbital parameters could have markedly affected the EASWs and EAWWs, and caused significant short-term oscillations in the mid-Pliocene monsoon climate in East Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In mountain regions, important differences in the time trends of climate series can be detected even within relatively small areas, leading to uncertainty when assessing climate change. The paper deals with a structured algorithm for high-resolution downscaling of climate characterisation in a region (precipitation and temperature), leading to a twofold application: increasing spatial resolution of past climate definition for the area and attaining high-resolution downscaling for climate projections. In the first stage, multi-variate analysis ('partial least squares' regression) was applied to a number of time series (10) in order to obtain climate averages for a larger number of sites. Predictions made with single-site values (such as seasonal means) can in some cases be improved by applying 'random perturbation' of the value and averaging single predictions in the ensemble. This analysis laid the foundation for implementing the same technique to the output of statistical downscaling of multi-model climate projections. Climate shift in the study area (Trentino), located in the north-eastern Italian Alps, was simulated for two 30-year time windows: 2021-2050 and 2071-2099. Progressive warming is predicted, being stronger in the summer, along with a mixed, seasonally differentiated trend for precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic plays a fundamental role in the climate system and has shown significant climate change in recent decades, including the Arctic warming and decline of Arctic sea-ice extent and thickness. In contrast to the Arctic warming and reduction of Arctic sea ice, Europe, East Asia and North America have experienced anomalously cold conditions, with record snowfall during recent years. In this paper, we review current understanding of the sea-ice impacts on the Eurasian climate. Paleo, observational and modelling studies are covered to summarize several major themes, including: the variability of Arctic sea ice and its controls; the likely causes and apparent impacts of the Arctic sea-ice decline during the satellite era, as well as past and projected future impacts and trends; the links and feedback mechanisms between the Arctic sea ice and the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation, the recent Eurasian cooling, winter atmospheric circulation, summer precipitation in East Asia, spring snowfall over Eurasia, East Asian winter monsoon, and midlatitude extreme weather; and the remote climate response (e.g., atmospheric circulation, air temperature) to changes in Arctic sea ice. We conclude with a brief summary and suggestions for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper re-examines the formation of International Environmental Agreements (IEAs) modelled as a two-stage non-cooperative game when countries' strategies to control pollution are complementary. This new assumption relying on empirical and theoretical evidences means that reinforcement effects do exist between countries' strategies when polluting or abating. From a deliberately conventional model the results established analytically strongly contrast with those in the literature on IEAs. We find that the unique stable agreement can consist in half countries involved in the negotiation; we demonstrate that the environmental impact of such cooperation is almost total: it tends toward the one of the full cooperative solution. Even if the incentives to free-ride are less strong, we do not observe the formation of the 'grand' coalition: not all the countries sign the agreement. We also explain why the level of cooperation is decreasing with the perception countries have of the seriousness of the problem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Murray dairy region produces approximately 1.85 billion litres of milk each year, representing about 20 % of Australia's total annual milk production. An ongoing production challenge in this region is the management of the impacts of heat stress during spring and summer. An increase in the frequency and severity of extreme temperature events due to climate change may result in additional heat stress and production losses. This paper assesses the changing nature of heat stress now, and into the future, using historical data and climate change projections for the region using the temperature humidity index (THI). Projected temperature and relative humidity changes from two global climate models (GCMs), CSIRO MK3.5 and CCR-MIROC-H, have been used to calculate THI values for 2025 and 2050, and summarized as mean occurrence of, and mean length of consecutive high heat stress periods. The future climate scenarios explored show that by 2025 an additional 12-15 days (compared to 1971 to 2000 baseline data) of moderate to severe heat stress are likely across much of the study region. By 2050, larger increases in severity and occurrence of heat stress are likely (i.e. an additional 31-42 moderate to severe heat stress days compared with baseline data). This increasing trend will have a negative impact on milk production among dairy cattle in the region. The results from this study provide useful insights on the trends in THI in the region. Dairy farmers and the dairy industry could use these results to devise and prioritise adaptation options to deal with projected increases in heat stress frequency and severity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the thermal comfort and its changes in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau over the last 50 years have been evaluated by using the physiological equivalent temperature (PET), and a more complete tourism climate picture is presented by the Climate-Tourism-Information Scheme (CTIS). The results show that PET classes in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau cover six out of the nine-point thermal sensation scale - very cold, cold, cool, slightly cool, neutral and slightly warm - and cold stress is prevailing throughout the year. A small number of slightly cool/warm and neutral days occur in summer months. There occur no warm, hot and very hot days. The frequency of PET classes varies among regions, depending on their altitude/latitude conditions. Xining, Lhasa and Yushu are the top three cities in terms of thermal favorability. With global warming, annual cumulative number of thermally favorable days has been increasing, and that of cold stress has been reducing. The change is more obvious in lower elevation than that in higher elevation regions. The improving thermal comfort in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau might be a glad tiding for local communities and tourists. Besides PET, CTIS can provide a number of additional bioclimatic information related to tourism and recreational activities. CTIS for Lhasa and Xining shows that sunshine is plentiful all the year round, and windy days occur frequently from late January to early May. This is a useful bioclimatic information for tourism authorities, travel agencies, resorts and tourists. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has been predicted to affect future air quality, with inevitable consequences for health. Quantifying the health effects of air pollution under a changing climate is crucial to provide evidence for actions to safeguard future populations. In this paper, we review published methods for quantifying health impacts to identify optimal approaches and ways in which existing challenges facing this line of research can be addressed. Most studies have employed a simplified methodology, while only a few have reported sensitivity analyses to assess sources of uncertainty. The limited investigations that do exist suggest that examining the health risk estimates should particularly take into account the uncertainty associated with future air pollution emissions scenarios, concentration-response functions, and future population growth and age structures. Knowledge gaps identified for future research include future health impacts from extreme air pollution events, interactions between temperature and air pollution effects on public health under a changing climate, and how population adaptation and behavioural changes in a warmer climate may modify exposure to air pollution and health consequences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Daily precipitation and temperature records at 13 stations for the period 1960-2008 were analyzed to identify climatic change and possible effects of urbanization on low-temperature precipitation [LTP, precipitation of ⩾ 0.1 mm d occurring under a daily minimum temperature (Tmin) of ⩽ 0°C] in the greater Beijing region (BJR), where a rapid process of urbanization has taken place over the last few decades. The paper provides a climatological overview of LTP in BJR. LTP contributes 61.7% to the total amount of precipitation in BJR in the cold season (November-March). There is a slight increasing trend [1.22 mm (10 yr)] in the amount of total precipitation for the cold season during 1960-2008. In contrast, the amount of LTP decreases by 0.6 mm (10 yr). The warming rate of Tmin in BJR is 0.66°C (10 yr). Correspondingly, the frequency of LTP decreases with increasing Tmin by −0.67 times per °C. The seasonal frequency and amount of LTP in southeast BJR (mostly urban sites) are 17%-20% less than those in the northwestern (rural and montane sites). The intensity of LTP for the urban sites and northeastern BJR exhibited significant enhancing trends [0.18 and 0.15 mm d (10 yr), respectively]. The frequency of slight LTP (<0.2 mm d) significantly decreased throughout BJR [by about 5.74% (10 yr) in the urban area and northeast BJR], while the contribution of the two heaviest LTP events to total LTP amount significantly increased by 3.2% (10 yr). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea level changes are caused by several natural phenomena, including mainly ocean thermal expansion, glacial melt from Greenland and Antarctica. It was estimated, in this respect, that global average sea level rose, during the 20th Century, by at least 10 cm. This trend is expected to continue and most likely accelerated during the 21st Century due to human-induced global warming. Global average sea level is expected to rise, by the year 2100, due to global warming between 0.18 and 0.59 cm. Such a rise in sea-level will significantly impact coastal areas due to the high concentration of natural and socioeconomic activities and assets located along the coast. The northern coastal zone of the Nile Delta is generally low land, and is consequently vulnerable to direct and indirect impacts of sea level rise (SLR) due to climate changes, particularly inundation. Despite the uncertainty associated with developed scenarios for climate change and expected SLR, there is a need, according to precautionary approach, to assess and analyze the impacts of SLR. Such an assessment, on one hand, can assist in formulating effective adaptation options to specific, sometimes localized, impacts of SLR. On the other hand, such an analysis can contribute significantly to the development of integrated approach to deal with the impacts of SLR. The objective of this paper is to assess and spatially analyze the risks of expected sea level rise (SLR), in particular inundation, and its implications up to the year 2100 in Kafr El Sheikh Governorate, Egypt, using GIS techniques. For that purpose, a GIS was developed for the study area and then utilized to identify the spatial extent of those areas that would be vulnerable to inundation by SLR. Moreover, various land uses/land covers susceptible to such inundation were identified. Results indicate that more than 22.59 % and 24.50 % of the total area of Kafr El Sheikh Governorate would be vulnerable to inundation under B1 and A1FI (IPCC most optimistic and pessimistic scenarios), respectively. No significant difference was noticed between the two scenarios in terms of spatial extent of SLR impacts. It was also found that a significant proportion of these areas were found to be currently either undeveloped or wetlands. Moreover, it was found that about 90.13 % of the vulnerable areas are actually less exposed to the risks of SLR due to the existence of a number of man-made features, not intended as protection measures, e.g. International Coastal Highway, that can be used to limit the areas vulnerable to inundations by SLR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the seasonal behaviour of a subtropical forest and its inter-annual variation is crucial to understanding and monitoring its ecosystem function in the context of global warming. Based on the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Enhanced Vegetation Index dataset, a wavelet transform method was used to investigate the inter-annual variations of vegetation phenology in a subtropical mountain and hill region in Fujian, China, during 2001-2010. The results show a distinct inter-annual variation of vegetation phenology related to climate variability even if most areas presented non-significant trends. The start dates significantly advanced and end dates delayed in 2003 and 2008, due to anomalously warm conditions. There was generally a gradient of increasing start dates, and earlier end dates of vegetation growing season, due to colder temperatures at higher altitudes. However, the altitudinal phenology relationship also depends on its corresponding rainfall conditions. Earlier start dates were observed at higher altitudes during rainfall deficit years such as 2008, which coincides with relatively abundant rainfall at higher altitudes. This paper reveals that vegetation phenology was coupled with altitudinal gradient, with distinct responses at different combinations of alternate temperature and precipitation conditions variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interpretation of changes of global temperature is important for our understanding of the climate system and for our confidence in projections for the future. Massive efforts have been devoted to improve the accuracy of reproducing the global temperature by the available climate models, but the hindcasts are still inaccurate. Notwithstanding the need to further advance climate models, one may consider data-driven approaches, providing practically useful results in a simpler and faster way. Without assuming any prior knowledge about physics and without imposing a model structure that encapsulates the existing knowledge about the underlying processes, we hindcast global temperature by automatically identified evolutionary computation models. We use 60 years of records of global temperature and climate drivers, with training and testing periods being 1950-1999 and 2000-2009, respectively. This paper demonstrates that the global temperature observed in the past is mimicked with reasonably good accuracy. Evolutionary computation holds promise for modeling the global climate system, which looks hopelessly complex in classical perspective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to climate changes, most of the alpine glaciers have retreated dramatically during the past decades. Thus it is significant to predict the alpine glacier variability in the future for a better understanding of the impact of climate changes on water resource. In this paper, we perform the numerical simulation on Urumqi Glacier No.1 in the eastern Tianshan, central Asia (hereafter Glacier No.1 for short) by considering both the mass balance and ice flow. Given the shape of the Glacier No.1, the velocity of the glacier is obtained by solving a two-dimensional nonlinear Stokes equation and simulated result is in agreement with the observation. In order to predict the variability of Glacier No.1 in the next decades, a climatic scenario is constructed with a temperature rise rate as 0.17°C/10 a and precipitation as constant during the period of 2005-2070. The simulation shows that, the glacier terminus will retreat slowly and the glacier will thin dramatically before 2040, while after year 2040, the glacier terminus retreat will accelerate. This study confirms the increasing retreat rate of alpine glaciers under global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes seasonal peculiarities of modern climate warming in the European region. It is shown that warming scenarios considerably differ in cold and warm periods of the year. The warming is accompanied with growth and considerable change in the phase of the yearly cycle in solarity data. A strong half-year cycle is recognized in seasonal variation of long-term trends over the last few years. Peculiarities of climate change in Europe and the increased influence of the tropics are discussed in view of the results obtained. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mediterranean mountains harbour some of Europe's highest floristic richness. This is accounted for largely by the mesoclimatic variety in these areas, along with the co-occurrence of a small area of Eurosiberian, Boreal and Mediterranean species, and those of Tertiary Subtropical origin. Throughout the twenty-first century, we are likely to witness a climate change-related modification of the biogeographic scenario in these mountains, and there is therefore a need for accurate climate regionalisations to serve as a reference of the abundance and distribution of species and communities, particularly those of a relictic nature. This paper presents an objective mapping method focussing on climate regions in a mountain range. The procedure was tested in the Cordillera Central Mountains of the Iberian Peninsula, in the western Mediterranean, one of the ranges occupying the largest area of the Mediterranean Basin. This regionalisation is based upon multivariate analyses and upon detailed cartography employing 27 climatic variables. We used spatial interpolation of data based on geographic information. We detected high climatic diversity in the mountain range studied. We identified 13 climatic regions, all of which form a varying mosaic throughout the annual temperature and rainfall cycle. This heterogeneity results from two geographically opposed gradients. The first one is the Mediterranean-Euro-Siberian variation of the mountain range. The second gradient involves the degree of oceanicity, which is negatively related to distance from the Atlantic Ocean. The existing correlation between the climatic regions detected and the flora existing therein enables the results to be situated within the projected trends of global warming, and their biogeographic and ecological consequences to be analysed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines how the riparian vegetation of perennial and ephemeral rivers systems in the semi-arid, winter rainfall region of South Africa has changed over time. Using an environmental history approach we assess the extent of change in plant cover at 32 sites using repeat photographs that cover a time span of 36-113 years. The results indicate that in the majority of sites there has been a significant increase in cover of riparian vegetation in both the channel beds and adjacent floodplain environments. The most important species to have increased in cover across the region is Acacia karroo. We interpret the findings in the context of historical changes in climate and land use practices. Damage to riparian vegetation caused by mega-herbivores probably ceased sometime during the early 19th century as did scouring events related to large floods that occurred at regular intervals from the 15th to early 20th centuries. Extensive cutting of riparian vegetation for charcoal and firewood has also declined over the last 150 years. Changes in the grazing history as well as increased abstraction and dam building along perennial rivers in the region also account for some of the changes observed in riparian vegetation during the second half of the 20th century. Predictions of climate change related to global warming anticipate increased drought events with the subsequent loss of species and habitats in the study area. The evidence presented here suggests that an awareness of the region's historical ecology should be considered more carefully in the modelling and formulation of future climate change predictions as well as in the understanding of climate change impacts over time frames of decades and centuries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Monthly precipitation data of 42 rain stations over the Pearl River basin for 1960–2005 were analyzed to classify anomalously wet and dry conditions by using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and aridity index ( I) for the rainy season (April–September) and winter (December–February). Trends of the number of wet and dry months decided by SPI were detected with Mann-Kendall technique. Furthermore, we also investigated possible causes behind wet and dry variations by analyzing NCAR/NCEP reanalysis dataset. The results indicate that: (1) the Pearl River basin tends to be dryer in the rainy season and comes to be wetter in winter. However, different wetting and drying properties can be identified across the basin: west parts of the basin tend to be dryer; and southeast parts tend to be wetter; (2) the Pearl River basin is dominated by dry tendency in the rainy season and is further substantiated by aridity index ( I) variations; and (3) water vapor flux, moisture content changes in the rainy season and winter indicate different influences of moisture changes on wet and dry conditions across the Pearl River basin. Increasing moisture content gives rise to an increasing number of wet months in winter. However, no fixed relationships can be observed between moisture content changes and number of wet months in the rainy season, indicating that more than one factor can influence the dry or wet conditions of the study region. The results of this paper will be helpful for basin-scale water resource management under the changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper compares climate change campaigns conducted by environmental nongovernment organizations (NGOs) in the United Kingdom (UK) and Australia. The NGOs represent a diversity of political access, financial resources, and international connections. Three campaign activities common to both countries undertaken between 2004 and 2006 are analyzed for their effectiveness via interviews and document review. This examination is embedded within an analysis of the political, economic, policy, and social contexts of each country. It is shown that in the UK climate change has been used as a pivotal leadership issue, that the fossil fuel industry’s influence is not predominant, and that NGOs enjoy political legitimacy. Whereas, in Australia climate change has only recently emerged as a political priority, the fossil fuel industry has had significant political and financial influence, and NGO advocacy has been marginalized. It is argued that NGOs are embedded in the political and policy contexts of their country, and the greatest campaign traction and NGO influence can only be achieved when these contexts provide favorable conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper expands the relevance of the collective interest model of mass political action to explain collective-action behavior in the context of global warming and climate change. The analysis is an attempt to answer Ostrom’s call for a behavioral model of collective action that can be generalized beyond political protest to other collective-action problems. We elaborate, specify, and empirically test a collective interest model approach to citizen policy support, environmental political participation, and environmental behavior related to the issue of global warming. Key elements of the collective interest model—perceived risk, personal efficacy, and environmental values—are found to be directly, and positively, related to support of government policies and personal behaviors that affect global warming. We also discuss the links between the collective interest model and other important approaches to political behavior. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a warming climate, permafrost is likely to be significantly reduced and eventually disappear from the sub-Arctic region. This will affect people at a range of scales, from locally by slumping of buildings and roads, to globally as melting of permafrost will most likely increase the emissions of the powerful greenhouse gas methane, which will further enhance global warming. In order to predict future changes in permafrost, it is crucial to understand what determines the presence or absence of permafrost under current climate conditions, to assess where permafrost is particularly vulnerable to climate change, and to identify where changes are already occurring. The Torneträsk region of northern sub-Arctic Sweden is one area where changes in permafrost have been recorded and where permafrost could be particularly vulnerable to any future climate changes. This paper therefore reviews the various physical, biological, and anthropogenic parameters that determine the presence or absence of permafrost in the Torneträsk region under current climate conditions, so that we can gain an understanding of its current vulnerability and potential future responses to climate change. A patchy permafrost distribution as found in the Torneträsk region is not random, but a consequence of site-specific factors that control the microclimate and hence the surface and subsurface temperature. It is also a product of past as well as current processes. In sub-Arctic areas such as northern Sweden, it is mainly the physical parameters, e.g., topography, soil type, and climate (in particular snow depth), that determine permafrost distribution. Even though humans have been present in the study area for centuries, their impacts on permafrost distribution can more or less be neglected at the catchment level. Because ongoing climate warming is projected to continue and lead to an increased snow cover, the permafrost in the region will most likely disappear within decades, at least at lower elevations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on the research on ocean circulation in a warming climate. Accordingly, findings show that the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) had stronger winds which fit to the common observation that it is windier in the winter than in the summer because there is greater thermal contrast within the atmosphere in the winter hemisphere. Moreover, the paper cited several observations that predict that oceans' circulation will weaken in response to global warming, but the warming at the end of the last ice age suggests a different outcome. However, by studying these observations, it is clear that large circulation changes took place and it seems unlikely that circulation changes of this magnitude could have happened without substantial changes in the wind forcing.

Background: In the face of climate change and global warming, scientists globally are striving for effective techniques on how best to sequester carbon in order to reduce global warming and achieve environmental sustainability. This paper reviews the available literature on the influence of various land use changes on gains and/or losses of soil carbon (C) stocks in Ethiopia. Results: Our review indicated that 33.3% of the studies reported soil organic carbon (SOC) concentration, 13.9% reported only SOC stock while 52.8% reported both SOC concentration and stock. Studies focusing on 0–30 cm only were 44%, other studies extending up to 40 to 100 cm were 50%, and studies extending to more than 100 cm accounted for 2.8% while studies without any depth specification accounted for 2.8%. Irrespective of soil type, C stocks in the top soil (0–30 cm) were found to be higher than at subsoil depths. Even though there is significant improvement in C sequestration in exclosures and community forests, the level of C sequestered is still below that of church forests. Conclusion: Conversion of native forest to other land uses resulted in a significant decrease in the SOC stocks across Ethiopia. Absence of long-term field trials and non-existence of SOC database are among the major drawbacks of SOC studies in Ethiopia identified in this review. With better management practices, it is possible to restore depleted C concentrations and stocks even in degraded lands and to conserve C in more pristine lands across the rugged landscapes of Ethiopia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is based on the commemorative lecture which was deliveredat the award ceremony of the Volvo Environmental Prize. The author describes his early attempt to study the greenhouse effect using a one-dimensional model of radiative, convective equilibrium of the atmosphere. This is followed by the description of a recent study of globalwarming which employs a general circulation model of the coupled atmosphere-ocean-land surface system developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). In particular, the study attempts to elucidate the role of oceanic and land surface processes in shaping the response of surface air temperature to a gradual increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]