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An editorial is presented which discusses the collaborative writing with multiple authors which has additional challenges including varied levels of engagement of coauthors, provision of fair credit through authorship or acknowledgements and acceptance of diversity of work styles. Also discussed are the 10 simple rules for collaboratively writing a multi-authored paper which include to build a writing team wisely; to create a data management plan and to jointly decide on authorship guidelines.

The safety of highly aggregated tourist crowds is a challenging and important issue. This paper not only provided a comprehensive analysis of the accidents of highly aggregated tourist crowds but also determined the occurrence mechanism and coping paths. Based on the analysis of multiple cases, we found that the variable status of highly aggregated tourist crowds was the result of the interaction of three main elements: multisource pressure, state mutations and management responses. A series of factors interact and result in accidents, and the lack of a management response or a low-quality management response is the root cause of such accidents. A high-quality management response is a basic safety precaution for highly aggregated tourist crowds. Therefore, forming a virtuous circle of multisource pressure, state mutations and management responses is an effective path for coping with accidents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, global pharmaceutical consumption has increased, resulting in the increased release into the environment and endangering the entire ecosystem. These pharmaceuticals have attracted considerable attention due to their persistence, toxicity, and the appearance of resistance genes and development antibiotic-resistance bacteria. Furthermore, conventional wastewater treatment plants are ineffective in treating antibiotic-contaminated wastewater. Thus, algae-based technologies are sustainable, low-cost, and friendly to the environment. In this context, immobilization appears to be of particular interest to many researchers as they develop new, efficient, greener strategies for the elimination of toxic and hazardous pollutants. provide a critical overview of algal immobilization-based technologies, and a biotechnological tool that restricts cell movement by confining it within a polymer matrix or attaching it to a rigid support is a promising, and cost-effective alternative that does not necessitate the use of additional chemicals. This paper presents strategies for the systematic removal of pharmaceuticals based on algae immobilization techniques as an economical, effective, and feasible alternative technology for removing pharmaceuticals and environmental concerns from water bodies and discusses the benefits and drawbacks of these techniques. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Concern over microplastics (MPs) in the environment is rising. Microplastics are generally known to exist in aquatic settings, but less is known about their occurrence in soil ecosystems. When plastic waste builds up in agricultural areas, it can have a negative impact on the environment and food sources, as well as have an indirect effect on all trophic levels of the food chain. This paper addresses the relationship between microplastics and the management of plastic waste, which contributes to their accumulation, and it describes the sources and the movement processes of microplastics in agricultural soils as a result of natural events and disasters. Evaluating the impact of weather on coastal microplastic contamination is critical, as extreme weather events have become more frequent in recent years. This study sheds light on how weather patterns affect the dispersion of plastic waste in terrestrial habitats, including the impacts of seasonality and extreme weather. According to the results of this review, typhoons, monsoons, rainfall, and floods contribute significantly more microplastics to the surface sediment through surface runoff and wind transport, particle redistribution caused by agitated waves, and fragmentation under intense abrasion forces. Severe weather conditions have the potential to disperse larger and more varied kinds of microplastics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ensembles are a well established machine learning paradigm, leading to accurate and robust models, predominantly applied to predictive modeling tasks. Ensemble models comprise a finite set of diverse predictive models whose combined output is expected to yield an improved predictive performance as compared to an individual model. In this paper, we propose a new method for learning ensembles of process-based models of dynamic systems. The process-based modeling paradigm employs domain-specific knowledge to automatically learn models of dynamic systems from time-series observational data. Previous work has shown that ensembles based on sampling observational data (i.e., bagging and boosting), significantly improve predictive performance of process-based models. However, this improvement comes at the cost of a substantial increase of the computational time needed for learning. To address this problem, the paper proposes a method that aims at efficiently learning ensembles of process-based models, while maintaining their accurate long-term predictive performance. This is achieved by constructing ensembles with sampling domain-specific knowledge instead of sampling data. We apply the proposed method to and evaluate its performance on a set of problems of automated predictive modeling in three lake ecosystems using a library of process-based knowledge for modeling population dynamics. The experimental results identify the optimal design decisions regarding the learning algorithm. The results also show that the proposed ensembles yield significantly more accurate predictions of population dynamics as compared to individual process-based models. Finally, while their predictive performance is comparable to the one of ensembles obtained with the state-of-the-art methods of bagging and boosting, they are substantially more efficient. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Low Power Wide Area Networks (LPWAN) such as Long Range (LoRa) show great potential in emerging aquatic IoT applications. However, our deployment experience shows that the floating LPWAN suffers significant performance degradation, compared to the static terrestrial deployments. Our measurement results reveal the reason behind this is the polarization and directivity of the antenna. The dynamic attitude of a floating node incurs varying signal strength losses, which is ignored by the attitude-oblivious link model adopted in most of the existing methods. When accessing the channel at a misaligned attitude, packet errors can happen. In this paper, we propose an attitude-aware link model that explicitly quantifies the impact of node attitude on link quality. Based on the new model, we propose PolarTracker, a novel channel access method for floating LPWAN. PolarTracker tracks the node attitude alignment state and schedules the transmissions into the aligned periods with better link quality. To support concurrent access of multiple LoRa nodes, an attitude-based slotted-ALOHA protocol is proposed to reduce collision. We implement a prototype of PolarTracker on commercial LoRa platforms and extensively evaluate its performance in various real-world environments. The experimental results show that PolarTracker can efficiently improve the packet reception ratio by 50.6%, compared with ALOHA in LoRaWAN. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Passive acoustic monitoring is gaining momentum as a viable alternative method to surveying freshwater ecosystems. As part of an emerging field, the spatio‐temporal replication levels of these sampling methods need to be standardised. However, in shallow waters, acoustic spatio‐temporal patchiness remains virtually unexplored.In this paper, we specifically investigate the spatial heterogeneity in underwater sounds observed within and between waterholes of an ephemeral river at different times of the day and how it could affect sampling in passive acoustic monitoring.We recorded in the Einasleigh River, Queensland in August 2016, using a linear transect of hydrophones mounted on frames. We recorded four times a day: at dawn, midday, dusk, and midnight. To measure different temporal and spectral attributes of the recorded sound, we investigated the mean frequency spectrum and computed acoustic indices.Both mean frequency spectrum and index analyses revealed that the site and diel activity patterns significantly influenced the sounds recorded, even for adjacent sites with similar characteristics along a single river. We found that most of the variation was due to temporal patterns, followed by between‐site differences, while within‐site differences had limited influence.This study demonstrates high spatio‐temporal acoustic variability in freshwater environments, linked to different species or species groups. Decisions about sampling design are vital to obtain adequate representation. This study thus emphasises the need to tailor spatio‐temporal settings of a sampling design to the aim of the study, the species and the habitat. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we introduce the R package gendist that computes the probability density function, the cumulative distribution function, the quantile function and generates random values for several generated probability distribution models including the mixture model, the composite model, the folded model, the skewed symmetric model and the arc tan model. These models are extensively used in the literature and the R functions provided here are flexible enough to accommodate various univariate distributions found in other R packages. We also show its applications in graphing, estimation, simulation and risk measurements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Constrained ordination methods aims at finding an environmental gradient along which the species abundances are maximally separated. The species response functions, which describe the expected abundance as a function of the environmental score, are according to the ecological fundamental niche theory only meaningful if they are bell-shaped. Many classical model-based ordination methods, however, use quadratic regression models without imposing the bell-shape and thus allowing for meaningless U-shaped response functions. The analysis output (e.g. a biplot) may therefore be potentially misleading and the conclusions are prone to errors. In this paper we present a log-likelihood ratio criterion with a penalisation term to enforce more bell-shaped response shapes. We report the results of a simulation study and apply our method to metagenomics data from microbial ecology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Concern over microplastics (MPs) in the environment is rising. Microplastics are generally known to exist in aquatic settings, but less is known about their occurrence in soil ecosystems. When plastic waste builds up in agricultural areas, it can have a negative impact on the environment and food sources, as well as have an indirect effect on all trophic levels of the food chain. This paper addresses the relationship between microplastics and the management of plastic waste, which contributes to their accumulation, and it describes the sources and the movement processes of microplastics in agricultural soils as a result of natural events and disasters. Evaluating the impact of weather on coastal microplastic contamination is critical, as extreme weather events have become more frequent in recent years. This study sheds light on how weather patterns affect the dispersion of plastic waste in terrestrial habitats, including the impacts of seasonality and extreme weather. According to the results of this review, typhoons, monsoons, rainfall, and floods contribute significantly more microplastics to the surface sediment through surface runoff and wind transport, particle redistribution caused by agitated waves, and fragmentation under intense abrasion forces. Severe weather conditions have the potential to disperse larger and more varied kinds of microplastics.

The quandong or native peach (Santalum acuminatum R.Br.) has been recognised as an important and tasty food resource among Aboriginal Australians in arid and semi-arid areas of southern Australia. It is valued for its fruit that is consumed raw or dried, and for its kernel, which is eaten raw or ground into paste for medicinal and skin care purposes. This paper reports on a study of ground stone implements within the Murray Darling Basin that has identified quandong stones as a distinct type of implement made specifically for the efficient cracking of quandong nuts. Data are presented on 1,327 ground stone implements from collections in 12 different locations in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB), an area almost completely devoid of stone sources. Given the paucity of stone, multi-purpose use of implements is widely documented. Although it was common to find pits present in mortars and other ground stone tools demonstrating multiple functions, including use as anvils, a class of single purpose stones with multiple pits and distinctive form was identified. Most of these were found in areas known for groves of quandong and four were analysed for use-wear and residues along with two other ground stone items from the MDB. The results support their identification as specialised anvil stones for cracking quandong nuts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine environments are visual domains restricted regarding light characteristics. Overall, blue monochromatic spectrum prevails in offshore areas especially below 15m depth, since long wavelengths are quickly attenuated. Light intensity is even more constrained in coastal waters, particularly those of tropical estuaries and bays, because further scattering through dissolved and suspended materials. Biofluorescence, which is the ability of organisms to absorb light and reflect it in a different wavelength, has been reported for many marine fish. In this paper, biofluorescence was recorded for the first time for the longsnout seahorse Hippocampus reidi, under natural conditions at Ilha Grande bay, Brazil, and both adult, juvenile and fry individuals kept in captivity. Although displaying the same colour emissions, seahorses differed in relation to body lighting, colour patterns, and age wherein fluorescence occurs. Newborn seahorses exhibit green biofluorescence only in the eyes and stomach. Further experiments are necessary to address whether H. reidi can change the patterns of biofluorescence emission for sensorial and social purposes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Constructed wetlands are sustainable technologies for the treatment of wastewater. These biological systems have been widely studied throughout the world for more than 30 years; however, most studies have focused on the effects of design and engineering on pollutant removal from wastewater. Undoubtedly, agro-technical aspects have been given too little consideration by research. This paper reports the main results of a set of experiments carried out on two pilot horizontal subsurface flow systems in Sicily (Italy). Festuca, Lolium and Pennisetum spp. in combination and three emergent macrophytes–Arundo donax L., Cyperus alternifolius L. and Typha latifolia L.–alone, were assessed. The aim of the study was to demonstrate that, under predetermined hydraulic and design conditions, the choice of plant species and the management of the vegetation can significantly affect the pollutant removal performance of constructed wetlands. In addition, wastewater (after treatment) can also be used for agricultural purposes leading to increased sustainability in agricultural systems. Arundo and Typha-planted units performed better than Cyperus-planted units in terms of chemical, physical and microbiological contaminant removal. All the species adapted extremely well to wetland conditions. Polyculture systems were found to be more efficient than monocultures in the removal of dissolved organic compounds. The reuse of treated wastewater for the irrigation of open fields and horticultural crops led to significant savings in the use of freshwater and fertilizers. The results of physical-energy characterization of A. donax above-ground plant residues and pellets highlighted the fact that a constructed wetland could also be a potential source of bioenergy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sediment flushing can tackle reservoirs siltation and improve sediment flux through dammed rivers. However, the increase of the sediment loading below the dam can trigger a suite of undesired ecological effects in the downstream river reaches. To limit these drawbacks, sediment flushing can be controlled, by jointly regulating the sediment concentration of the evacuated water and the streamflow in the downstream channel. In this paper, we report on ten controlled sediment flushing operations (CSFOs), carried out between 2006 and 2012 in the central Italian Alps, at four hydropower reservoirs. These CSFOs displayed specific common traits: (i) Limits were set by the local environmental authorities concerning the allowable suspended sediment concentration. (ii) Reservoirs were fully drawn-down, earth-moving equipment was used to dislodge sediment, and the downstream water discharge was increased, compared to baseflow, by operating upstream intakes. (iii) Abiotic and biotic measurements in selected downstream reaches (before, during, and after the CSFOs) represented an integral part of the operations. In contrast, significant differences characterize the hydropower facilities (elevation and storage of reservoirs, in particular) as well as the basic CSFOs parameters (i.e., season, duration, mass and grain-size of the evacuated sediment, suspended sediment concentration). The macroinvertebrate assemblages resulted noticeably impacted by the CSFOs. In the short term, a significant density drop was observed, slightly influenced by the extent of the perturbation. In contrast, the latter appeared to control the assemblages contraction in terms of richness, according to the different sensitivity to sediment stress of the different taxa. The time employed to recover pre-CSFO standard ranged from few months to just under one year, and the related patterns would seem mostly correlated to the flushing season and to further site specificities. The density of trout populations was impacted as well, thus suggesting the adoption of mitigating strategies as removal by electrofishing before, and repopulation after the CSFO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Freely-available satellite data streams and the ability to process these data on cloud-computing platforms such as Google Earth Engine have made frequent, large-scale landcover mapping at high resolution a real possibility. In this paper we apply these technologies, along with machine learning, to the mapping of peatlands–a landcover class that is critical for preserving biodiversity, helping to address climate change impacts, and providing ecosystem services, e.g., carbon storage–in the Boreal Forest Natural Region of Alberta, Canada. We outline a data-driven, scientific framework that: compiles large amounts of Earth observation data sets (radar, optical, and LiDAR); examines the extracted variables for suitability in peatland modelling; optimizes model parameterization; and finally, predicts peatland occurrence across a large boreal area (397, 958 km2) of Alberta at 10 m spatial resolution (equalling 3.9 billion pixels across Alberta). The resulting peatland occurrence model shows an accuracy of 87% and a kappa statistic of 0.57 when compared to our validation data set. Differentiating peatlands from mineral wetlands achieved an accuracy of 69% and kappa statistic of 0.37. This data-driven approach is applicable at large geopolitical scales (e.g., provincial, national) for wetland and landcover inventories that support long-term, responsible resource management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mountains play a key role in the provision of nature’s contributions to people (NCP) worldwide that support societies’ quality of life. Simultaneously, mountains are threatened by multiple drivers of change. Due to the complex interlinkages between biodiversity, quality of life and drivers of change, research on NCP in mountains requires interdisciplinary approaches. In this study, we used the conceptual framework of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) and the notion of NCP to determine to what extent previous research on ecosystem services in mountains has explored the different components of the IPBES conceptual framework. We conducted a systematic review of articles on ecosystem services in mountains published up to 2016 using the Web of Science and Scopus databases. Descriptive statistical and network analyses were conducted to explore the level of research on the components of the IPBES framework and their interactions. Our results show that research has gradually become more interdisciplinary by studying higher number of NCP, dimensions of quality of life, and indirect drivers of change. Yet, research focusing on biodiversity, regulating NCP and direct drivers has decreased over time. Furthermore, despite the fact that research on NCP in mountains becoming more policy-oriented over time, mainly in relation to payments for ecosystem services, institutional responses remained underexplored in the reviewed studies. Finally, we discuss the relevant knowledge gaps that should be addressed in future research in order to contribute to IPBES. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The fragile ecological environment near mines provide advantageous conditions for the development of landslides. Mine landslide susceptibility mapping is of great importance for mine geo-environment control and restoration planning. In this paper, a total of 493 landslides in Shangli County, China were collected through historical landslide inventory. 16 spectral, geomorphic and hydrological predictive factors, mainly derived from Landsat 8 imagery and Global Digital Elevation Model (ASTER GDEM), were prepared initially for landslide susceptibility assessment. Predictive capability of these factors was evaluated by using the value of variance inflation factor and information gain ratio. Three models, namely artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM) and information value model (IVM), were applied to assess the mine landslide sensitivity. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) and rank probability score were used to validate and compare the comprehensive predictive capabilities of three models involving uncertainty. Results showed that ANN model achieved higher prediction capability, proving its advantage of solve nonlinear and complex problems. Comparing the estimated landslide susceptibility map with the ground-truth one, the high-prone area tends to be located in the middle area with multiple fault distributions and the steeply sloped hill. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When making decisions under uncertainty, individuals may form subjective expectations about probabilities of events relevant for their choice. Accurate measurement of subjective expectations is critical for high-quality data needed to analyze individual behavior. This paper reports the development and validity of a new method of eliciting point subjective expectations in developing countries. We developed a touchscreen-based application that combines an animated slider along with dynamic images that change relative sizes based on the probability indicated by the respondent. We compare our method to the more traditional approach of using beans as visual aids. First, we find that respondents have a sound understanding of basic concepts of probability. Second, we test for equality of the distributions elicited with the different methods and find them highly comparable. Third, we provide evidence that respondents report a more favorable opinion about the slider method and more willingness to complete long surveys using the slider rather than beans. Our findings suggest that the slider could be a viable elicitation method for empirical researchers who aim to collect data on subjective expectations in developing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Digital imaging has become one of the most important techniques in environmental monitoring and exploration. In the case of the marine environment, mobile platforms such as autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) are now equipped with high-resolution cameras to capture huge collections of images from the seabed. However, the timely evaluation of all these images presents a bottleneck problem as tens of thousands or more images can be collected during a single dive. This makes computational support for marine image analysis essential. Computer-aided analysis of environmental images (and marine images in particular) with machine learning algorithms is promising, but challenging and different to other imaging domains because training data and class labels cannot be collected as efficiently and comprehensively as in other areas. In this paper, we present Machine learning Assisted Image Annotation (MAIA), a new image annotation method for environmental monitoring and exploration that overcomes the obstacle of missing training data. The method uses a combination of autoencoder networks and Mask Region-based Convolutional Neural Network (Mask R-CNN), which allows human observers to annotate large image collections much faster than before. We evaluated the method with three marine image datasets featuring different types of background, imaging equipment and object classes. Using MAIA, we were able to annotate objects of interest with an average recall of 84.1% more than twice as fast as compared to “traditional” annotation methods, which are purely based on software-supported direct visual inspection and manual annotation. The speed gain increases proportionally with the size of a dataset. The MAIA approach represents a substantial improvement on the path to greater efficiency in the annotation of large benthic image collections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper documents the first U-Pb zircon ages for Ashfall Fossil Beds (Nebraska, USA), a terrestrial Konservat-Lagerstätte mass-death assemblage that is arguably the most diverse of its type and age. The Ashfall tephra was correlated with ignimbrites from the Bruneau-Jarbidge volcanic field (12.7–10.5 Ma) in southwest Idaho based on geochemical analysis. The methods and geochemical data supporting the original age assessment of the ash bed, however, were never published, and there has been a persistent misconception that dateable heavy minerals (e.g., zircon) are absent. Notwithstanding, we recovered abundant zircons from Ashfall Fossil Beds, and from an ash bed ~6 km to the southeast at Grove Lake, Nebraska, and analyzed them through LA-ICP-MS. Our new zircon U-Pb age of 11.86 ± 0.13 Ma substantiates correlation of the Ashfall Fossil Beds deposit to tuffs originating from the Bruneau-Jarbidge caldera (~12.7–10.5 Ma). Our U-Pb zircon age of 6.42 ± 0.06 Ma for the Grove Lake ash bed coincides with supervolcanic activity in the Heise volcanic field (6.6–4.3 Ma) in eastern Idaho. These new dates improve age constraints of strata comprising the Ogallala Group and the important paleontological site. Moreover, we find that detrital and airfall zircons are unevenly distributed in the stratified ash beds we describe herein and presumably in similar deposits worldwide. Therefore, a higher-resolution sampling scheme is necessary in such cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Onchocerciasis control in Côte d’Ivoire started with aerial insecticide spraying in 1974 and continued with community directed treatment with ivermectin (CDTi) from 1992 to the present. Onchocerciasis and lymphatic filariasis (LF) are co-endemic in 46 of the 81 health districts in the country. Fourteen and 12 districts are endemic for only LF or onchocerciasis, respectively. This paper aims to review the impact of past interventions on onchocerciasis in Côte d’Ivoire between 1975 and 2013, and review plans for disease elimination. Methods: We reviewed microfilaria (MF, skin snip) prevalence and community microfilarial load (CMFL) data from published reports from 53 health districts during two major epidemiological assessment periods. Data from 1975 through 1991 provided information on the impact of vector control, and data from 1992 through 2016 provided information on the impact of CDTi. Results: Weekly aerial insecticide spraying in 8 endemic districts between 1975 and 1991 reduced the overall MF prevalence by 68.1% from 43.5% to 13.9%. The CMFL also decreased in 7 out of 8 surveyed communities by 95.2% from 9.24 MF/snip to 0.44 MF/snip. Ivermectin distribution started in 1992. The coverage targets for control (65% of the total population) was reached in most endemic districts, and some areas achieved 80% coverage. Two sets of surveys were conducted to assess the impact of CDTi. Results from the first repeat surveys showed a significant decrease in overall MF prevalence (by 75.7%, from 41.6% to 10.1%). The second follow-up evaluation showed further improvement in most endemic districts and also documented major reductions in CMFL compared to baseline. Conclusions: Extensive data collected over many years document the very significant impact of interventions conducted by the National Onchocerciasis and other Eyes Diseases Control Programme during challenging times with periods of civil unrest. The Health Ministry has now integrated efforts to control neglected tropical diseases and adopted the goal of onchocerciasis elimination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Climate change is affecting food systems globally, with implications for food security, nutrition, and the health of human populations. There are limited data characterizing the current and future consequences of climate change on local food security for populations already experiencing poor nutritional indicators. Indigenous Amazonian populations have a high reported prevalence of nutritional deficiencies. This paper characterizes the food system of the Shawi of the Peruvian Amazon, climatic and non-climatic drivers of their food security vulnerability to climate change, and identifies potential maladaptation trajectories. Methods and findings: Semi-structured interviews with key informants (n = 24), three photovoice workshops (n = 17 individuals), transect walks (n = 2), a food calendar exercise, and two community dissemination meetings (n = 30 individuals), were conducted within two Shawi communities in Balsapuerto District in the Peruvian Loreto region between June and September of 2014. The Shawi food system was based on three main food sub-systems (forest, farming and externally-sourced). Shawi reported collective, gendered, and emotional notions related to their food system activities. Climatic and non-climatic drivers of food security vulnerability among Shawi participants acted at proximal and distal levels, and mutually reinforced key maladaptation trajectories, including: 1) a growing population and natural resource degradation coupled with limited opportunities to increase incomes, and 2) a desire for education and deforestation reinforced by governmental social and food interventions. Conclusion: A series of maladaptive trajectories have the potential to increase social and nutritional inequities for the Shawi. Transformational food security adaptation should include consideration of Indigenous perceptions and priorities, and should be part of Peruvian food and socioeconomic development policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Blue whales are sighted every year around the Azores islands, which apparently provide an important seasonal foraging area. In this paper we aim to characterize habitat preferences and analyze the temporal distribution of blue whales around São Miguel Island. To do so, we applied Generalized Additive Models to an opportunistic cetacean occurrence dataset and remotely sensed environmental data on bathymetry, sea surface temperature, chlorophyll concentration and altimetry. We provide a brief description of the oceanography of the area, emphasizing its high spatio-temporal variability. In order to capture this dynamism, we used environmental data with two different spatial resolutions (low and high) and three different temporal resolutions (daily, weekly and monthly), thus accounting for both long-term oceanographic events such as the spring bloom, and shorter-term features such as eddies or fronts. Our results show that blue whales have a well-defined ecological niche around the Azores. They usually cross the archipelago from March to June and habitat suitability is highest in dynamic areas (with high Eddy Kinetic Energy) characterized by convergence or aggregation zones where productivity is enhanced. Multi-scale studies are useful to understand the ecological niche and habitat requirements of highly mobile species that can easily react to short-term changes in the environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper demonstrates the impact of an endemic fossorial animal, plateau pika (Ochotona curzoniae), on soil properties and N2O flux at the Zoige Wetland. Pika burrow and control sites without disturbance by pika were selected to measure the soil water content, bulk density, soil organic matter (SOM), NH4-N content and NO3-N content in August 2012. N2O fluxes were measured with static opaque chambers at these sites in June and August 2012. Pika burrowing altered soil aeration by transferring deeper soil to the surface and by constructing underground burrows, which significantly increased bulk density, and reduced soil water content, SOM and NH4-N content at 0–10 cm and 10–20 cm soil depth. N2O flux had a significant correlation with bulk density, SOM and NH4-N content. Pika burrowing significantly influenced N2O flux by increasing N2O flux at the control site from near zero to 0.063±0.011 mg m-2 h-1. Our findings described how pika burrowing influences the soil traits and significantly increases the principal greenhouse gas N2O emission. As plateau pika was commonly considered as a pest, our findings give a novel clue to effectively manage populations of plateau pika on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from the perspective of greenhouse gas emission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With an estimate of around 9,000 species, the Neotropical region hosts the greatest diversity of freshwater fishes of the world. Genetic surveys have the potential to unravel isolated and unique lineages and may result in the identification of undescribed species, accelerating the cataloguing of extant biodiversity. In this paper, molecular diversity within the valuable and widespread Neotropical genus Hoplias was assessed by means of DNA Barcoding. The geographic coverage spanned 40 degrees of latitude from French Guiana to Argentina. Our analyses revealed 22 mitochondrial lineages fully supported by means of Barcode Index Number, Automatic Barcode Gap Discovery and phylogenetic analyses. This mtDNA survey revealed the existence of 15 fully supported mitochondrial lineages within the once considered to be the continentally distributed H. malabaricus. Only four of them are currently described as valid species however, leaving 11 mitochondrial lineages currently “masked” within this species complex. Mean genetic divergence was 13.1%. Barcoding gap analysis discriminated 20 out of the 22 lineages tested. Phylogenetic analyses showed that all taxonomically recognized species form monophyletic groups. Hoplias malabaricus sensu stricto clustered within a large clade, excluding the representatives of the La Plata River Basin. In the H. lacerdae group, all species but H. curupira showed a cohesive match between taxonomic and molecular identification. Two different genetic lineages were recovered for H. aimara. Given the unexpected hidden mitochondrial diversity within H. malabaricus, the COI sequence composition of specimens from Suriname (the type locality), identified as H. malabaricus sensu stricto, is of major importance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Turtle shell rattles are percussion instruments used by Indigenous peoples of the Americas in ceremonial contexts to keep rhythm. Archaeological investigations in the southeastern United States produced several complete and partial Eastern box turtle (Terrapene carolina) shell rattles from mortuary contexts dating from the Archaic (ca. 8000–1000 BC) through Mississippian periods (ca. AD 800–1500). Fragmentary turtle remains, some identified as Eastern box turtle, are frequently recovered from non-mortuary contexts. Traditionally, these fragmentary remains are attributed to food waste. Given the archaeological and ethnographic evidence for turtle shell rattles, we need to consider how fragmentary remains might fit into the chaîne opératoire of rattle production. This paper presents the results of an experimental study designed to identify one such chaîne opératoire of rattle production. During this experiment, the data on taphonomic processes such as manufacturing marks, use-wear, and breakage patterns, were recorded. We then tested the taphonomic findings from the experimental study and an object trait list we compiled from known rattle specimens and documentary sources with archaeological turtle remains recovered from non-mortuary contexts at two Mississippian period (ca. AD 1000–1450) sites in Middle Tennessee. Historic indigenous groups are known to have, and still do into the present-day, make and use turtle shell rattles in the region. Ultimately, we determined that “food refuse” should not be the default interpretation of fragmentary box turtle remains, and instead the taphonomic history and contextual associations must be considered in full. The experimental process of crafting turtle shell rattles enhances our understanding of an ancient musical instrument and the success rate of identifying musical artifacts and distinguishing between other modified turtle remains in the archaeological record. This study expands our knowledge of ancient music in North America and prompts re-analysis of curated turtle remains in museums for rattle-related modifications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Southwestern Amazonia is considered an early centre of plant domestication in the New World, but most of the evidence for this hypothesis comes from genetic data since systematic archaeological fieldwork in the area is recent. This paper provides first-hand archaeobotanical evidence of food production from early and middle Holocene (ca. 9,000–5000 cal. BP) deposits at Teotonio, an open-air site located on a 40 m-high bluff on the south bank of the Madeira river. Such evidence includes the presence of local and exotic domesticates such as manioc (Manihot esculenta), squash (Cucurbita sp.) and beans (Phaseolus sp.), alongside edible fruits such as pequiá (Caryocar sp.) and guava (Psidium sp.) that point to the beginnings of landscape domestication. The results contribute to an ever-growing number of studies that posit southwest Amazonia as an important centre for early crop domestication and experimentation, and which highlight the longue-durée of human impacts on tropical forest biodiversity around the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To understand the response of marine calcifying organisms under high CO2 scenarios, it is critical to study their calcification patterns in the natural environment. This paper focuses on a major calcifying phytoplankton group, the coccolithophores, through the analysis of water samples collected along a W-E Mediterranean transect during two research cruises, in April 2011 (Meteor cruise M84/3) and May 2013 (MedSeA cruise 2013). The Mediterranean Sea is a marginal sea characterized by large biogeochemical gradients. Currently, it is undergoing both warming and ocean acidification, processes which are rapidly modifying species distribution and calcification. The species Emiliania huxleyi largely dominates the total coccolithophore production in present day oceans and marine basins, including the Mediterranean Sea. A series of morphometric measurements were performed on the coccoliths of this species to estimate their mass, length and calculate a calcification index (proxy for the size-normalized calcification degree). The most abundant morphotype of E. huxleyi in the Mediterranean Sea is Type A. Coccoliths of this morphotype were additionally analyzed based on scanning electron microscopy images: four calcification varieties were quantified, according to the relationship between slit length-tube width, and the state of the central area (open or closed). The average E. huxleyi coccolith mass along the Mediterranean oceanographic transect depended strongly on both the average coccolith length and calcification index. The variability in average coccolith length and calcification index across samples reflected oscillations in the relative abundance of the calcification varieties. We also demonstrated that the distribution of the calcification varieties followed the main environmental gradients (carbonate chemistry, salinity, temperature, nutrient concentrations). Hence, shifts in the distribution of the calcification varieties and of the average E. huxleyi coccolith mass are to be expected in the Mediterranean Sea under climate change. These physiological and ecological responses will modulate the net coccolithophore calcification and, ultimately, the regional carbonate export to the seafloor. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the results of research into pathways leading to the production of methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) in sediments of two eutrophic reservoirs (Maziarnia and Nielisz), located in south-eastern Poland. In seeking to identify the pathways in question, use was made of analysis of stable carbon isotopes in CH4 and CO2 dissolved in pore water. This determined that CH4 is mainly produced through acetate fermentation, though the hydrogenotrophic methanogenic process may also be of importance, especially in deeper layers of sediments. Both the presence of autochthonous organic matter and increased pH values are shown to favour acetate fermentation. In turn, methanogenesis in sediments is assessed as capable of accounting for the generation of a considerable amount of CO2. Indeed, the role of methanogenesis in CO2 production is increasingly important further down in the layers of sediment, where allochthonous organic matter is predominant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Obligate river dolphins occur only in the rivers of Asia and South America, where they are increasingly subject to damaging pressures such as habitat degradation, food competition and entanglement in fishing gear as human populations expand. The Amazon basin hosts two, very different, dolphins—the boto or Amazon river dolphin (Inia geoffrensis) and the smaller tucuxi (Sotalia fluviatilis). Both species have wide geographical ranges and were once considered to be relatively abundant. Their IUCN Red List conservation status of Data Deficient (DD), due to limited information on threats, ecology, population numbers and trends, did not initially cause alarm. However, the development of dolphin hunting to provide fish bait at around the beginning of this millennium broadly coincided with the onset of a widespread perception that numbers of both species were in decline. Consequently, the need for population trend data to inform conservation advice and measures became urgent. This paper presents a 22-year time series of standardised surveys for both dolphins within the Mamirauá Reserve, Amazonas State, Brazil. Analysis of these data show that both species are in steep decline, with their populations halving every 10 years (botos) and 9 years (tucuxis) at current rates. These results are consistent with published, independent information on survival rates of botos in this area, which demonstrated a substantial drop in annual survival, commencing at around the year 2000. Mamirauá is a protected area, and is subject to fewer environmental pressures than elsewhere in the region, so there is no reason to suspect that the decline in dolphins within the Reserve is more pronounced than outside it. If South America's freshwater cetaceans are to avoid following their Asian counterparts on the path to a perilous conservation status, effective conservation measures are required immediately. Enforcement of existing fishery laws would greatly assist in achieving this. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Watershed planning can lead to policy innovation and action toward environmental protection. However, groups often suffer from low engagement with communities that experience disparate impacts from flooding and water pollution. This can limit the capacity of watershed efforts to dismantle pernicious forms of social inequality. As a result, the benefits of environmental changes often flow to more empowered residents, short-changing the power of watershed-based planning as a tool to transform ecological, economic, and social relationships. The objectives of this paper are to assess whether the worldview of watershed planning actors are sufficiently attuned to local patterns of social vulnerability and whether locally significant patterns of social vulnerability can be adequately differentiated using conventional data sources. Drawing from 35 in-depth interviews with watershed planners and community stakeholders in the Milwaukee River Basin (WI, USA), we identify five unique definitions of social vulnerability. Watershed planners in our sample articulate a narrower range of social vulnerability definitions than other participants. All five definitions emphasize spatial and demographic characteristics consistent with existing ways of measuring social vulnerability. However, existing measures do not adequately differentiate among the spatio-temporal dynamics used to distinguish definitions. In response, we develop two new social vulnerability measures. The combination of interviews and demographic analyses in this study provides an assessment technique that can help watershed planners (a) understand the limits of their own conceptualization of social vulnerability and (b) acknowledge the importance of place-based vulnerabilities that may otherwise be obscured. We conclude by discussing how our methods can be a useful tool for identifying opportunities to disrupt social vulnerability in a watershed by evaluating how issue frames, outreach messages, and engagement tactics. The approach allows watershed planners to shift their own culture in order to consider socially vulnerable populations comprehensively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding Earth surface responses in terms of sediment dynamics to climatic variability and tectonics forcing is hindered by limited ability of current models to simulate long-term evolution of sediment transfer and associated morphological changes. This paper presents pyBadlands, an open-source python-based framework which computes over geological time (1) sediment transport from landmasses to coasts, (2) reworking of marine sediments by longshore currents and (3) development of coral reef systems. pyBadlands is cross-platform, distributed under the GPLv3 license and available on GitHub (). Here, we describe the underlying physical assumptions behind the simulated processes and the main options already available in the numerical framework. Along with the source code, a list of hands-on examples is provided that illustrates the model capabilities. In addition, pre and post-processing classes have been built and are accessible as a companion toolbox which comprises a series of workflows to efficiently build, quantify and explore simulation input and output files. While the framework has been primarily designed for research, its simplicity of use and portability makes it a great tool for teaching purposes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Commercial hunting for the international trade in animal hides in the 20th century decimated many populations of aquatic wildlife in Amazonia. However, impacts varied significantly between different species and regions, depending upon hunting intensity, accessibility of habitat, and the inherent resilience of various species and their habitats. We investigated the differential responses of two Amazonian Mustelid species, the neotropical otter and giant otter, to commercial hunting pressure along the upper Rio Negro in Brazil, and examined historical factors that influenced spatial and temporal variation in commercial exploitation. We analyzed previously unanalyzed data from historical records of hide shipments to track changes in hide sales and prices for the two species in the late 20th century. We also gathered oral histories from older Baniwa people who had witnessed or participated in commercial otter hunting. These complimentary data sources reveal how intrinsic biological and social characteristics of the two otter species interacted with market forces and regional history. Whereas giant otter populations were driven to local or regional extinction during the late 20th century by commercial hunting, neotropical otters persisted. In recent decades, giant otter populations have returned to some parts of the upper Rio Negro, a development which local people welcome as part of a generalized recovery of the ecosystems in their territory as a result of the banning of animal pelt exports and indigenous land demarcation. This paper expands the scope of the field historical ecology and reflects on the role of local knowledge in biodiversity conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The intelligent water drop algorithm is a swarm-based metaheuristic algorithm, inspired by the characteristics of water drops in the river and the environmental changes resulting from the action of the flowing river. Since its appearance as an alternative stochastic optimization method, the algorithm has found applications in solving a wide range of combinatorial and functional optimization problems. This paper presents an improved intelligent water drop algorithm for solving multi-depot vehicle routing problems. A simulated annealing algorithm was introduced into the proposed algorithm as a local search metaheuristic to prevent the intelligent water drop algorithm from getting trapped into local minima and also improve its solution quality. In addition, some of the potential problematic issues associated with using simulated annealing that include high computational runtime and exponential calculation of the probability of acceptance criteria, are investigated. The exponential calculation of the probability of acceptance criteria for the simulated annealing based techniques is computationally expensive. Therefore, in order to maximize the performance of the intelligent water drop algorithm using simulated annealing, a better way of calculating the probability of acceptance criteria is considered. The performance of the proposed hybrid algorithm is evaluated by using 33 standard test problems, with the results obtained compared with the solutions offered by four well-known techniques from the subject literature. Experimental results and statistical tests show that the new method possesses outstanding performance in terms of solution quality and runtime consumed. In addition, the proposed algorithm is suitable for solving large-scale problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urbanization is a global process that has taken billions of people from the rural countryside to concentrated urban centers, adding pressure to existing water resources. Many cities are specifically reliant on renewable freshwater regularly refilled by precipitation, rather than fossil groundwater or desalination. A precipitationshed can be considered the “watershed of the sky” and identifies the origin of precipitation falling in a given region. In this paper, we use this concept to determine the sources of precipitation that supply renewable water in the watersheds of the largest cities of the world. We quantify the sources of precipitation for 29 megacities and analyze their differences between dry and wet years. Our results reveal that 19 of 29 megacities depend for more than a third of their water supply on evaporation from land. We also show that for many of the megacities, the terrestrial dependence is higher in dry years. This high dependence on terrestrial evaporation for their precipitation exposes these cities to potential land-use change that could reduce the evaporation that generates precipitation. Combining indicators of water stress, moisture recycling exposure, economic capacity, vegetation-regulated evaporation, land-use change, and dry-season moisture recycling sensitivity reveals four highly vulnerable megacities (Karachi, Shanghai, Wuhan, and Chongqing). A further six megacities were found to have medium vulnerability with regard to their water supply. We conclude that understanding how upwind landscapes affect downwind municipal water resources could be a key component for understanding the complexity of urban water security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a simple bi-level multi-objective linear program (BLMOLP) with a hierarchical structure consisting of reservoir managers and several water use sectors under a multi-objective framework for the optimal allocation of limited water resources. Being the upper level decision makers (i.e., leader) in the hierarchy, the reservoir managers control the water allocation system and tend to create a balance among the competing water users thereby maximizing the total benefits to the society. On the other hand, the competing water use sectors, being the lower level decision makers (i.e., followers) in the hierarchy, aim only to maximize individual sectoral benefits. This multi-objective bi-level optimization problem can be solved using the simultaneous compromise constraint (SICCON) technique which creates a compromise between upper and lower level decision makers (DMs), and transforms the multi-objective function into a single decision-making problem. The bi-level model developed in this study has been applied to the Swat River basin in Pakistan for the optimal allocation of water resources among competing water demand sectors and different scenarios have been developed. The application of the model in this study shows that the SICCON is a simple, applicable and feasible approach to solve the BLMOLP problem. Finally, the comparisons of the model results show that the optimization model is practical and efficient when it is applied to different conditions with priorities assigned to various water users. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Salmonid farming in Ireland is mostly organic, which implies limited disease treatment options. This highlights the importance of biosecurity for preventing the introduction and spread of infectious agents. Similarly, the effect of local network properties on infection spread processes has rarely been evaluated. In this paper, we characterized the biosecurity of salmonid farms in Ireland using a survey, and then developed a score for benchmarking the disease risk of salmonid farms. The usefulness and validity of this score, together with farm indegree (dichotomized as ≤ 1 or > 1), were assessed through generalized Poisson regression models, in which the modeled outcome was pathogen richness, defined here as the number of different diseases affecting a farm during a year. Seawater salmon (SW salmon) farms had the highest biosecurity scores with a median (interquartile range) of 82.3 (5.4), followed by freshwater salmon (FW salmon) with 75.2 (8.2), and freshwater trout (FW trout) farms with 74.8 (4.5). For FW salmon and trout farms, the top ranked model (in terms of leave-one-out information criteria, looic) was the null model (looic = 46.1). For SW salmon farms, the best ranking model was the full model with both predictors and their interaction (looic = 33.3). Farms with a higher biosecurity score were associated with lower pathogen richness, and farms with indegree > 1 (i.e. more than one fish supplier) were associated with increased pathogen richness. The effect of the interaction between these variables was also important, showing an antagonistic effect. This would indicate that biosecurity effectiveness is achieved through a broader perspective on the subject, which includes a minimization in the number of suppliers and hence in the possibilities for infection to enter a farm. The work presented here could be used to elaborate indicators of a farm’s disease risk based on its biosecurity score and indegree, to inform risk-based disease surveillance and control strategies for private and public stakeholders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding trends in the diverse resources provided by large rivers will help balance tradeoffs among stakeholders and inform strategies to mitigate the effects of landscape scale stressors such as climate change and invasive species. Absent a cohesive coordinated effort to assess trends in important large river resources, a logical starting point is to assess our ability to draw inferences from existing efforts. In this paper, we use a common analytical framework to analyze data from five disparate fish monitoring programs to better understand the nature of spatial and temporal trends in large river fish assemblages. We evaluated data from programs that monitor fishes in the Colorado, Columbia, Illinois, Mississippi, and Tallapoosa rivers using non-metric dimensional scaling ordinations and associated tests to evaluate trends in fish assemblage structure and native fish biodiversity. Our results indicate that fish assemblages exhibited significant spatial and temporal trends in all five of the rivers. We also document native species diversity trends that were variable within and between rivers and generally more evident in rivers with higher species richness and programs of longer duration. We discuss shared and basin-specific landscape level stressors. Having a basic understanding of the nature and extent of trends in fish assemblages is a necessary first step towards understanding factors affecting biodiversity and fisheries in large rivers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a morphing model of vector geographical data based on Fourier transformation. This model involves three main steps. They are conversion from vector data to Fourier series, generation of intermediate function by combination of the two Fourier series concerning a large scale and a small scale, and reverse conversion from combination function to vector data. By mirror processing, the model can also be used for morphing of linear features. Experimental results show that this method is sensitive to scale variations and it can be used for vector map features’ continuous scale transformation. The efficiency of this model is linearly related to the point number of shape boundary and the interceptive value n of Fourier expansion. The effect of morphing by Fourier transformation is plausible and the efficiency of the algorithm is acceptable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the Nubia Salvage Campaign and the subsequent expeditions from the 1960’s to the 1980’s, numerous sites attributed to the Late Palaeolithic (~25–15 ka) were found in the Nile Valley, particularly in Nubia and Upper Egypt. This region is one of the few to have allowed human occupations during the dry Marine Isotope Stage 2 and is therefore key to understanding how human populations adapted to environmental changes at this time. This paper focuses on two sites located in Upper Egypt, excavated by the Combined Prehistoric Expedition: E71K18, attributed to the Afian industry and E71K20, attributed to the Silsilian industry. It aims to review the geomorphological and chronological evidence of the sites, present a technological analysis of the lithic assemblages in order to provide data that can be used in detailed comparative studies, which will allow discussion of technological variability in the Late Palaeolithic of the Nile Valley and its place within the regional context. The lithic analysis relies on the chaîne opératoire concept combined with an attribute analysis to allow quantification. This study (1) casts doubts on the chronology of E71K18 and related Afian industry, which could be older or younger than previously suggested, highlights (2) distinct technological characteristics for the Afian and the Silsilian, as well as (3) similar technological characteristics which allow to group them under a same broad techno-cultural complex, distinct from those north or south of the area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coal mining is one of the core industries that contribute to the economic development of a country but deteriorate the environment. Being the primary source of energy, coal has become essential to meet the energy demand of a country. It is excavated by both opencast and underground mining methods and affects the environment, especially hydrological cycle, by discharging huge amounts of mine water. Natural hydrological processes have been well known to be vulnerable to human activities, especially large scale mining activities, which inevitably generate surface cracks and subsidence. It is therefore valuable to assess the impact of mining on river runoff for the sustainable development of regional economy. In this paper, the impact of coal mining on river runoff is assessed in one of the national key coal mining sites, Gujiao mining area, Shanxi Province, China. The characteristics of water cycle are described, the similarities and differences of runoff formation are analyzed in both coal mining and pre-mining periods. The integrated distributed hydrological model named MIKE SHE is employed to simulate and evaluate the influence of coal mining on river runoff. The study shows that mining one ton of raw coal leads to the reduction of river runoff by 2.87 m3 between 1981 and 2008, of which the surface runoff decreases by 0.24 m3 and the baseflow by 2.63 m3. The reduction degree of river runoff for mining one ton of raw coal shows an increasing trend over years. The current study also reveals that large scale coal mining initiates the formation of surface cracks and subsidence, which intercepts overland flow and enhances precipitation infiltration. Together with mine drainage, the natural hydrological processes and the stream flows have been altered and the river run off has been greatly reduced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fluctuations in environmental parameters are increasingly being recognized as essential features of any habitat. The quantification of whether environmental fluctuations are prevalently predictable or unpredictable is remarkably relevant to understanding the evolutionary responses of organisms. However, when characterizing the relevant features of natural habitats, ecologists typically face two problems: (1) gathering long-term data and (2) handling the hard-won data. This paper takes advantage of the free access to long-term recordings of remote sensing data (27 years, Landsat TM/ETM+) to assess a set of environmental models for estimating environmental predictability. The case study included 20 Mediterranean saline ponds and lakes, and the focal variable was the water-surface area. This study first aimed to produce a method for accurately estimating the water-surface area from satellite images. Saline ponds can develop salt-crusted areas that make it difficult to distinguish between soil and water. This challenge was addressed using a novel pipeline that combines band ratio water indices and the short near-infrared band as a salt filter. The study then extracted the predictable and unpredictable components of variation in the water-surface area. Two different approaches, each showing variations in the parameters, were used to obtain the stochastic variation around a regular pattern with the objective of dissecting the effect of assumptions on predictability estimations. The first approach, which is based on Colwell’s predictability metrics, transforms the focal variable into a nominal one. The resulting discrete categories define the relevant variations in the water-surface area. In the second approach, we introduced General Additive Model (GAM) fitting as a new metric for quantifying predictability. Both approaches produced a wide range of predictability for the studied ponds. Some model assumptions–which are considered very different a priori–had minor effects, whereas others produced predictability estimations that showed some degree of divergence. We hypothesize that these diverging estimations of predictability reflect the effect of fluctuations on different types of organisms. The fluctuation analysis described in this manuscript is applicable to a wide variety of systems, including both aquatic and non-aquatic systems, and will be valuable for quantifying and characterizing predictability, which is essential within the expected global increase in the unpredictability of environmental fluctuations. We advocate that a priori information for organisms of interest should be used to select the most suitable metrics for estimating predictability, and we provide some guidelines for this approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]