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Accurate short-term power load forecasting is crucial to maintaining a balance between energy supply and demand, thus minimizing operational costs. However, the intrinsic uncertainty and non-linearity of load data substantially impact the accuracy of forecasting results. To mitigate the influence of these uncertainties and non-linearity in electric load data on the forecasting results, we propose a hybrid network that integrates variational mode decomposition with a temporal convolutional network (TCN) and a bidirectional gated recurrent unit (BiGRU). This integrated approach aims to enhance the accuracy of short-term power load forecasting. The method was validated on load datasets from Singapore and Australia. The MAPE of this paper's model on the two datasets reached 0.42% and 1.79%, far less than other models, and the R2 reached 98.27% and 97.98, higher than other models. The experimental results show that the proposed network exhibits a better performance compared to other methods, and could improve the accuracy of short-term electricity load forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the realm of economic scheduling and optimal operation within integrated energy systems, integrated energy load aggregation plays a pivotal role. Accurate prediction of integrated energy load aggregation enables the refined management of energy resources, thereby enhancing energy utilization efficiency. This paper merges the advantages of clustering algorithms, prediction algorithms and ensemble learning to propose a short-term prediction approach for integrated energy load aggregation. Firstly, the intrinsic distribution of energy consumption data is analyzed through Affinity Propagation (AP) clustering with multi-dimensional similarity. This analysis yields the division of all samples into clusters based on data characteristics. Subsequently, the Transfer entropy is harnessed to conduct correlation analysis within each cluster. For constructing predictive models for each individual cluster, a prediction algorithm based on the Feature-Temporal Attention-enhanced Bi-directional Simple Recurrent Unit (FTA-Bi-SRU) is employed. The Dynamic Weight Average (DWA)-based multi-task loss equilibrium and Multi-Term Adam (MTAdam) loss function are combined to enhance the efficiency of the forecasting model. Finally, a Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) model with Bayesian optimization is employed to integrate the predictive outcomes of each individual cluster to generate the overall predictive outcomes for integrated energy load aggregation. The proposed methodology is experimented on real-world energy consumption data to ascertain the efficacy of the prediction method. The experimental results substantiate the superiority of the suggested forecasting approach. • This marks the inaugural discussion of load forecasting for integrated energy load aggregation is discussed. • A multi-dimensional similarity Affinity Propagation (AP) clustering algorithm is introduced to group multi-energy users. • A method based on transfer entropy for correlation analysis is presented. • An Feature-Temporal Attention based Bi-directional Simple Recurrent Unit (FTA-Bi-SRU) prediction model is introduced. • A Bayes-optimized Light Gradient Boosting Machine (BO-LightGBM) ensemble framework is proposed to enhance overall prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Commercial buildings are a significant consumer of energy worldwide. Logistics facilities, and specifically warehouses, are a common building type which remain under-researched in the demand-side energy forecasting literature. Warehouses have an idiosyncratic profile when compared to other commercial and industrial buildings with a significant reliance on a small number of energy systems. As such, warehouse owners and operators are increasingly entering energy performance contracts with energy service companies (ESCOs) to minimise environmental impact, reduce costs, and improve competitiveness. ESCOs and warehouse owners and operators require accurate forecasts of their energy consumption so that precautionary and mitigation measures can be taken. This paper explores the performance of three machine learning models (Support Vector Regression (SVR), Random Forest, and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost)), three deep learning models (Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU)), and a classical time series model, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) for predicting daily energy consumption. The dataset comprises 8040 records generated over an 11-month period from January to November 2020 from a non-refrigerated logistics facility located in Ireland. The grid search method was used to identify the best configurations for each model. The proposed XGBoost models outperformed other models for both very short-term load forecasting (VSTLF) and short-term load forecasting (STLF); the ARIMA model performed the worst. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]