Search

This paper presents a method to analyze and improve the set of equations constituting a rainfall‐runoff model structure based on a combination of a data assimilation algorithm and polynomial updates to the state equations. The method, which we have called "Data Assimilation Informed model Structure Improvement" (DAISI) is generic, modular, and demonstrated with an application to the GR2M model and 201 catchments in South‐East Australia. Our results show that the updated model generated with DAISI generally performed better for all metrics considered included Kling‐Gupta Efficiency, NSE on log transform flow and flow duration curve bias. In addition, the elasticity of modeled runoff to rainfall is higher in the updated model, which suggests that the structural changes could have a significant impact on climate change simulations. Finally, the DAISI diagnostic identified a reduced number of update configurations in the GR2M structure with distinct regional patterns in three sub‐regions of the modeling domain (Western Victoria, central region, and Northern New South Wales). These configurations correspond to specific polynomials of the state variables that could be used to improve equations in a revised model. Several potential improvements of DAISI are proposed including the use of additional observed variables such as actual evapotranspiration to better constrain internal model fluxes. Plain Language Summary: This paper presents a data‐driven method to improve rainfall‐runoff models used to generate future water resources scenario in climate change studies. The method, which we have called "Data Assimilation Informed model Structure Improvement" (DAISI) is generic, modular, and demonstrated with an application to monthly streamflow simulations over a large data set of catchments in South‐East Australia. Our results show that DAISI improves model performance for a wide range of metrics and increases the sensitivity of the model to climate inputs, which is critical in climate change scenarios. Finally, the improvements identified by DAISI take a simple mathematical form with distinct regional patterns in three sub‐regions of the study domain (Western Victoria, central region, and Northern New South Wales). Several improvements of DAISI are discussed including the inclusion of additional observed variables such as evapotranspiration to better constrain model simulations. Key Points: Data Assimilation Informed model Structure Improvement method diagnoses hydrological model structures by combining data assimilation with a polynomial update of state equationsThe method was applied to the GR2M rainfall‐runoff model with significantly improved streamflow simulations in 201 Australian catchmentsThe method identified updates to state equations with marked regional characteristics that could guide future improvement of GR2M [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change mitigation benefits from the land sector are not being fully realised because of uncertainty and controversy about the role of native forest management. The dominant policy view, as stated in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report, is that sustainable forest harvesting yielding wood products, generates the largest mitigation benefit. We demonstrate that changing native forest management from commercial harvesting to conservation can make an important contribution to mitigation. Conservation of native forests results in an immediate and substantial reduction in net emissions relative to a reference case of commercial harvesting. We calibrated models to simulate scenarios of native forest management for two Australian case studies: mixed-eucalypt in New South Wales and Mountain Ash in Victoria. Carbon stocks in the harvested forest included forest biomass, wood and paper products, waste in landfill, and bioenergy that substituted for fossil fuel energy. The conservation forest included forest biomass, and subtracted stocks for the foregone products that were substituted by non-wood products or plantation products. Total carbon stocks were lower in harvested forest than in conservation forest in both case studies over the 100-year simulation period. We tested a range of potential parameter values reported in the literature: none could increase the combined carbon stock in products, slash, landfill and substitution sufficiently to exceed the increase in carbon stock due to changing management of native forest to conservation. The key parameters determining carbon stock change under different forest management scenarios are those affecting accumulation of carbon in forest biomass, rather than parameters affecting transfers among wood products. This analysis helps prioritise mitigation activities to focus on maximising forest biomass. International forest-related policies, including negotiations under the UNFCCC, have failed to recognize fully the mitigation value of native forest conservation. Our analyses provide evidence for decision-making about the circumstances under which forest management provides mitigation benefits.

The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated how a stochastic disruptive event can dramatically alter community soundscapes. Whilst religious bells have symbolism in many worldwide faiths, the sound emanating from church bells can be considered public domain and therefore, is not exclusive to the church. Pandemic-related interruption of these sounds impacts not only the church involved, but both the surrounding soundscape and any members of the community who ascribe value to these sounds. This paper examines the soundscape of Christian churches in the states of New South Wales and Victoria, to give an Australian perspective one year after the declaration of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. It provides an update of the situation in Australia, building on our previous work from August of that year. In doing so, it explores the activity of church tower bell ringing, and how this "non-essential" activity has been affected, both during and subsequent to the heavy community restrictions applied in Australia. The paper also explores what lengths bellringers have undertaken to be permitted to conduct such activities, such as the use of adaptive measures due to "social distancing", and considers what implications this enforced silence has in similar soundscapes elsewhere in the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Early relational health is a key determinant of childhood development, while relational trauma in the parent-infant dyad can instigate a cascading pattern of infant risk. Fortunately, early relational trauma is detectable and modifiable. In 2018, Australian Maternal and Child Health (MCH) nurses participated in MERTIL (My Early Relational Trauma-Informed Learning), a program to identify and prevent relational trauma. Program evaluations revealed nurses felt competent and confident to identify and respond to relational trauma; however, response capacity was inhibited by inadequate parent referral options. In response, MERTIL for Parents (My Early Relational Trust-Informed Learning) was developed, which is an online, evidence-based, self-paced parenting program that focuses on enhancing parental knowledge of relational trust and its significance for infant development. This low-cost, accessible prevention resource targets emerging relational concerns to reduce later service system engagement. The potential for universal preventative online programs that target parental and relational wellbeing remains under-explored. This paper reports on a protocol for implementing a MERTIL for Parents pilot study describing practitioners' and parents' perspectives on program feasibility and efficacy. Methods: This study is a mixed methods, parallel armed, uncontrolled, repeated measures design. We aim to recruit 48 Australian MCH practitioners from the states of Victoria and New South Wales. These professionals will in turn recruit 480 parents with a child aged 0–5 years. All parents will receive MERTIL for Parents, which entails a 40-minute video, tipsheets, posters, and support resources. Parent data will be obtained at three periods: pre-program, program exit, and program follow-up. Practitioner data will be collected at two periods: pre-parent recruitment and program follow-up. Data collection will occur through surveys and focus groups. Primary parent outcomes will be socioemotional assessments of program efficacy. Practitioners and parents will each report on program feasibility. Discussion: This protocol describes the feasibility and efficacy of a new online parenting program, MERTIL for Parents, with pilot field studies commencing in March 2023. We anticipate that this resource will be a valuable addition to various child and family services, for use in individual support and group work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the benefits of jointly using several realized measures in predicting daily price volatility, Value-at-Risk, and Expected Shortfall in the Australian electricity markets of New South Wales, Queensland, and Victoria. We propose using Realized GARCH-type models with multiple measurement equations based on robust estimators to account for market microstructure noise and jumps in electricity price series. The model specifications that combine information from multiple realized measures improve the in-sample fit of the data. The out-of-sample analysis shows that use of the jump-robust medRV estimator significantly increases the accuracy of volatility forecasts, while in forecasting Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall at different risk levels, the standard GARCH(1,1) also performs remarkably well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Law purports to regulate end-of-life care but its role in decision-making by doctors is not clear. This paper, which is part of a three-year study into the role of law in medical practice at the end of life, investigates whether law affects doctors' decision-making. In particular, it considers whether the fact that the law differs across Australia's three largest states - New South Wales (NSW), Victoria and Queensland - leads to doctors making different decisions about withholding and withdrawing life-sustaining treatment from adults who lack capacity. Methods: A cross-sectional postal survey of the seven specialties most likely to be involved in end-of-life care in the acute setting was conducted between 18 July 2012 and 31 January 2013. The sample comprised all medical specialists in emergency medicine, geriatric medicine, intensive care, medical oncology, palliative medicine, renal medicine and respiratory medicine on the AMPCo Direct database in those three Australian states. The survey measured medical specialists' level of legal compliance, and reasons for their decisions, concerning the withholding or withdrawal of lifesustaining treatment. Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine predictors of legal compliance. Linear regression was used to examine associations between the decision about life-sustaining treatment and the relevance of factors involved in making these decisions, as well as state differences in these associations. Results: Response rate was 32% (867/2702). A majority of respondents in each state said that they would provide treatment in a hypothetical scenario, despite an advance directive refusing it: 72% in NSW and Queensland; 63% in Victoria. After applying differences in state law, 72% of Queensland doctors answered in accordance with local law, compared with 37% in Victoria and 28% in NSW (p < 0.001). Doctors reported broadly the same decision-making approach despite differences in local law. Conclusions: Law appears to play a limited role in medical decision-making at the end of life with doctors prioritising patient-related clinical and ethical considerations. Different legal frameworks in the three states examined did not lead to different decisions about providing treatment. More education is needed about law and its role in this area, particularly where law is inconsistent with traditional practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Technology is increasingly used by perpetrators of domestic violence to control, coerce, abuse, harass and stalk victim-survivors. Though 'spaceless'-not bound by geography-there are particular ways that place and space shape the impacts of and risks associated with this violence. This paper examines the impact of technology-facilitated violence on victim-survivors of intimate partner violence in regional, rural or remote areas of Australia (New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland) who are socially or geographically isolated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An inventory survey of the bird fauna of a small (462 ha) riverine woodland remnant on the Wakool River in the Riverina bioregion in southern inland New South Wales in 2021-2023 recorded 123 species (31 waterbirds and 92 woodland birds) including residents, flood visitors, spring/summer latitudinal migrants and autumn/winter altitudinal migrants. The conservation values of this remnant include habitat value for 22 NSW declining woodland bird species, one waterbird species of conservation concern in NSW, and an additional 9 species (3 woodland birds and 6 waterbirds) of conservation concern in nearby Victoria, as well as landscape connectivity value as part of a major riverine wildlife corridor. Several declining woodland bird species exhibited apparent local preferences for particular vegetation communities, including Gilbert's Whistler Pachycephala inornata (River Red Gum Eucalyptus camaldulensis Forest and Mixed Box-Gum Woodland) and Hooded Robin Melanodryas cucullata (Black Box Eucalyptus largiflorens Woodland). This study highlights the complementary value of small remnants for biodiversity conservation in extensively cleared landscapes and the connectivity role of riverine corridors in these landscapes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The incidence of pancreatic cancer is rising. With improvements in knowledge for screening and early detection, earlier detection of pancreatic cancer will continue to be more common. To support workforce planning, our aim is to perform a model-based analysis that simulates the potential impact on the healthcare workforce, assuming an earlier diagnosis of pancreatic cancer. Methods: We developed a simulation model to estimate the demand (i.e. new cases of pancreatic cancer) and supply (i.e. the healthcare workforce including general surgeons, medical oncologists, radiation oncologists, pain medicine physicians, and palliative care physicians) between 2023 and 2027 in Victoria, Australia. The model compares the current scenario to one in which pancreatic cancer is diagnosed at an earlier stage. The incidence of pancreatic cancer in Victoria, five-year survival rates, and Victoria's population size were obtained from Victorian Cancer Registry, Cancer Council NSW, and Australian Bureau of Statistics respectively. The healthcare workforce data were sourced from the Australian Government Department of Health and Aged Care's Health Workforce Data. The model was constructed at the remoteness level. We analysed the new cases and the number of healthcare workforce by profession together to assess the impact on the healthcare workforce. Results: In the status quo, over the next five years, there will be 198 to 220 stages I-II, 297 to 330 stage III, and 495 to 550 stage IV pancreatic cancer cases diagnosed annually, respectively. Assuming 20–70% of the shift towards pancreatic cancer's earlier diagnosis (shifting from stage IV to stages I-II pancreatic cancer within one year), the stages I-II cases could increase to 351 to 390 or 598 to 665 per year. The shift to early diagnosis led to substantial survival gains, translating into an additional 284 or 795 out of 5246 patients with pancreatic cancer remaining alive up to year 5 post-diagnosis. Workforce supply decreases significantly by the remoteness levels, and remote areas face a shortage of key medical professionals registered in delivering pancreatic cancer care, suggesting travel necessities by patients or clinicians. Conclusion: Improving the early detection and diagnosis of pancreatic cancer is expected to bring significant survival benefits, although there are workforce distribution imbalances in Victoria that may affect the ability to achieve the anticipated survival gain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Effective primary healthcare services have been identified by the World Health Organization as the most equitable approach to enhancing universal healthcare. Robust models of mentoring for registered nurses (RNs) transitioning to primary healthcare roles have yet to be described in the Australian context. A robust mentoring model can support RNs to fulfill their potential, bridging the gap between theory and practice. In 2015, the peak body for nurses in primary health care (PHC) began developing a transition to practice program, including embedded mentoring to support newly graduated and more experienced registered and enrolled nurses. This quality improvement study reports the experiences and perspectives of nurses participating as mentors in two separate offerings of the program delivered between 2019 and 2021. Method: A two-phase concurrent mixed methods evaluation utilized data from pre- and post online surveys and post program meetings. Quantitative items underwent descriptive analyses. Thematic analysis of free-text responses and comments was conducted independently by two researchers. Mentors voluntarily provided self-report data and were informed that data is routinely collected to support continuous quality improvement processes for all programs. An Information Sheet informed mentors of data usage, confidentiality, and options to withdraw without penalty from the program at any time. Results: Seventy-nine mentors were recruited to support two groups of nurses (N = 111). Mentor self-rated overall satisfaction with program participation was 86.67% (very or extremely satisfied). Mentors described being "witness to mentee growth," "having facilitated access to learning" and receiving "unexpected benefits" including personal and professional growth and enhanced enthusiasm for their role in PHC. Conclusion: The embedded mentoring reported in this article combined a focus on skills acquisition and professional identity with the provision of a range of resources and support activities. Sustainable mentoring programs will be an important mechanism for supporting the expanding roles required of nurses working in primary health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anthesis and fruiting of cultivated Bolwarra Eupomatia laurina in Melbourne and Metung are described, and photographs presented. The flowering season was later and androecia of flowers were retained on gynoecia longer than those of Bolwarra in natural populations in Queensland and New South Wales. The normal flowering cycle with a flowerless day or two after anthesis, also varied occasionally in Victoria, resulting in flowering on two consecutive days. Artificial pollination experiments showed that pollen on non-abscised androecia was viable and demonstrated geitonogamous self-compatibility. Honey Bees Apis mellifera and Reed Bees Exoneura sp. collected pollen from these androecia, but were not observed visiting flowers in the female phase, and are not considered pollinators of this primitive plant. In the absence of weevil pollinators (Elleschodes spp.), fruit-set was rare and varied between years and locations. Areas for further research on the mechanism/s for self-pollination are suggested. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Short-term load forecasting (STLF) enables distribution system operators to perform efficient energy management by flexibly engaging energy consumers under the intelligent demand-response program in the smart grid (SG). This paper develops a fast and accurate hybrid load forecasting model with this motivation. The proposed model integrates a locally weighted support vector regression (LWSVR) based forecaster with two modules. These modules are feature engineering (FE) and adaptive grasshopper optimization (AGO) based optimizers. In the FE module, firstly, the proposed hybrid feature selector (HFS) is developed using wrapper and filter techniques to determine an optimal subset of features. Furthermore, the instance-based Relief-F (REF) and information theoretic-based mutual information (MI) filters are used to decrease the curse of feature dimensionality by finding and eradicating extraneous features. In addition, to overcome the overfitting problem, the HFS module is further optimized using the recursive feature elimination (RFE) wrapper feature selection technique. The essential features are then extracted using a radial basis Kernel-based principal component analysis (RBF-KPCA) algorithm to eliminate the dimensionality reduction problem. The AGO algorithm tunes the LWSVR model's appropriate parameters to effectively evade entrapping into local optimum and yield accurate prediction results. However, the efficacy and productiveness of the forecasting model are differentiated equally by its convergence rate and stability. Actual hourly load data of two states of Australia (New South Wales (NSW) and Victoria (VIC)) and California Independent System Operator United States (CAISO-US) are employed as a case study to estimate the effectiveness and applicability of the designed model. Empirical results show that the devised model surpasses benchmark models (single and hybrid) in terms of stability, accuracy, and convergence rate. • A Hybrid Framework for Short Term Load Forecasting is presented. • Hybrid feature engineering, optimization and forecasting modules. • Instance-based Relief-F and mutual information feature selection. • Radial basis Kernel-based principal component analysis to eliminate dimensionality problem. • Adaptive grasshopper optimization is used to tune support vector regression. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Sixty percent of people have non-functional arms 6 months after stroke. More effective treatments are needed. Cochrane Reviews show low-quality evidence that task-specific training improves upper limb function. Our feasibility trial showed 56 h of task-specific training over 6 weeks resulted in an increase of a median 6 points on the Action Research Arm test (ARAT), demonstrating the need for more definitive evidence from a larger randomised controlled trial. Task-AT Home is a two-arm, assessor-blinded, multicentre randomised, controlled study, conducted in the home setting. Aim: The objective is to determine whether task-specific training is a more effective treatment than usual care, for improving upper limb function, amount of upper limb use, and health related quality of life at 6 weeks and 6 months after intervention commencement. Our primary hypothesis is that upper limb function will achieve a = 5 point improvement on the ARAT in the task-specific training group compared to the usual care group, after 6 weeks of intervention. Methods: Participants living at home, with remaining upper limb deficit, are recruited at 3 months after stroke from sites in NSW and Victoria, Australia. Following baseline assessment, participants are randomised to 6 weeks of either task-specific or usual care intervention, stratified for upper limb function based on the ARAT score. The task-specific group receive 14 h of therapist-led taskspecific training plus 42 h of guided self-practice. The primary outcome measure is the ARAT at 6 weeks. Secondary measures include the Motor Activity Log (MAL) at 6 weeks and the ARAT, MAL and EQ5D-5 L at 6 months. Assessments occur at baseline, after 6 weeks of intervention, and at 6 months after intervention commencement. Analysis will be intention to treat using a generalised linear mixed model to report estimated mean differences in scores between the two groups at each timepoint with 95% confidence interval and value of p. Discussion: If the task-specific home-based training programme is more effective than usual care in improving arm function, implementation of the programme into clinical practice would potentially lead to improvements in upper limb function and quality of life for people with stroke. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The incidence of pyro-cumulonimbus (pyroCb) caused by extreme wildfires has increased markedly in Australia over the last several decades. This increase can be associated with a dangerous escalation of wildfire risk and severe stratospheric pollution events. Atmospheric and fuel conditions are important influences on pyroCb occurrence, but the exact causal relationships are still not well understood. We used the Continuous Haines Index (C-Haines) to represent atmospheric instability and the Fuel Moisture Index (FMI) to represent fuel moisture to provide better insight into the effects of atmospheric and fuel conditions on pyroCb occurrence over southeast Australia. C-Haines and FMI were related to the probability of pyroCb occurrence by employing a logistic regression on data gathered between 1980 and 2020. Emphasis is placed on investigating the independent effects and combined effects of FMI and C-Haines, as well as assessing their potential to predict whether a pyroCb develops over a fire. The main findings of this study are: (1) high C-Haines and low FMI values are representative of favorable conditions for pyroCb occurrence, but C-Haines can offset the effect of FMI—the addition of C-Haines to the logistic model muted the significance of FMI; (2) among the components of C-Haines, air temperature lapse rate (CA) is a better predictor of pyroCb occurrence than the dryness component (CB); (3) there are important regional differences in the effect of C-Haines and FMI on pyroCb occurrence, as they have better predictive potential in New South Wales than in Victoria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a rapid transformation of health services. This study aimed to understand the experiences of healthcare by people with interstitial lung disease (ILD), to inform future service delivery. Methods: Four specialist clinics in tertiary centres in Australia (Victoria:2 sites; New South Wales: 1 site; Western Australia: 1 site) recruited patients with ILD during an 8-week period from March 2021. Participants completed a COVID-specific questionnaire focused on health-related experiences during 2020. Results: Ninety nine (65% of 153) participants completed the questionnaire. 47% had idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis or connective tissue disease-associated ILD, 62% were female and the average age was 66 years. Whilst 56% rated their overall health in 2020 as the same as months prior, 38% indicated a worsening in health attributed to reduced physical activity and fear of contracting the virus. Access to healthcare professionals was 'good' in 61%, and 'fair-to-poor' for 37% due to missed respiratory assessments, with telehealth (mainly telephone) being perceived as less effective. 89% had contact with respiratory physicians, 68% with general practitioners, predominantly via telephone, with few video consultations. High satisfaction with care was reported by 78%, with lower satisfaction attributed to delays in assessments, disruption to usual services such as pulmonary rehabilitation, and dissatisfaction with telehealth. Conclusion: People with ILD were generally satisfied with their care during 2020, however reduced access to healthcare professionals was challenging for those experiencing a deterioration in health. Telehealth was largely well received but did not always meet the needs of people with ILD particularly when unwell. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The emission of black carbon (BC) particles, which cause atmospheric warming by affecting radiation budget in the atmosphere, is the result of an incomplete combustion process of organic materials. The recent wildfire event during the summer 2019–2020 in south-eastern Australia was unprecedented in scale. The wildfires lasted for nearly 3 months over large areas of the two most populated states of New South Wales and Victoria. This study on the emission and dispersion of BC emitted from the biomass burnings of the wildfires using the Weather Research Forecast–Chemistry (WRF–Chem) model aims to determine the extent of BC spatial dispersion and ground concentration distribution and the effect of BC on air quality and radiative transfer at the top of the atmosphere, the atmosphere and on the ground. The predicted aerosol concentration and AOD are compared with the observed data using the New South Wales Department of Planning and Environment (DPE) aethalometer and air quality network and remote sensing data. The BC concentration as predicted from the WRF–Chem model, is in general, less than the observed data as measured using the aethalometer monitoring network, but the spatial pattern corresponds well, and the correlation is relatively high. The total BC emission into the atmosphere during the event and the effect on radiation budget were also estimated. This study shows that the summer 2019–2020 wildfires affect not only the air quality and health impact on the east coast of Australia but also short-term weather in the region via aerosol interactions with radiation and clouds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines differentiated financial risk tolerance attitudes between three listing branches within the Australian Securities Exchange's (ASX) standardised listing environment. Western Australia's (WA) concentration of earlier‐stage IPOs (51% of all ASX small, (predominately mining) initial public offerings (IPOs)) appears to reflect a localised 'entrepreneurial' risk attitude towards smaller, higher‐risk transactions, comparative to New South Wales and Victoria. Our mixed method approach identifies that the concentration of small‐cap, capital raising experiences that are (in)/formally shared through key 'gatekeepers', shape locally adopted funding capabilities, business processes, and risk attitudes. Underlying risk attitudes were influenced by the shared confidence in the recognition and management of risk, thereby increasing the propensity to participate in more speculative opportunities, and WA's presumptive higher risk tolerance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High-resolution palaeoclimate proxies are fundamental to our understanding of the diverse climatic history of the Australian mainland, particularly given the deficiency in instrumental datasets spanning more than a century. Annually resolved, tree-ring-based proxies play a unique role in addressing limitations in our knowledge of interannual to multi-decadal temperature and hydroclimatic variability prior to the instrumental period. Here we present cross-dated ring-width (RW) and minimum blue-intensity (BI) chronologies spanning 70 years (1929–1998) for Podocarpus lawrencei Hook.f., the Australian mainland's only alpine conifer, based on nine full-disc cross-sections from Mount Loch in the Victorian Alps. Correlations with climate variables from observation stations and gridded data across the 1929–1998 period reveal a significant positive relationship between RW and mean monthly maximum temperatures in winter throughout central Victoria (r=0.62 , p<0.001) and a significant negative correlation to winter precipitation (r=-0.51 , p<0.001). We also found significant negative correlations between RW and monthly snow depth at Spencer Creek in New South Wales (r=-0.60 , p<0.001). Of the assessed BI parameters, delta blue intensity (Δ BI; the difference between early- and late-wood BI) displayed the greatest sensitivity to climate, with robust spatial correlations with mean October to December maximum and minimum monthly temperatures (r=-0.43 , p<0.001 ; r=-0.51 , p<0.001) and July precipitation (r=0.44 , p<0.001), across large areas of northern Victoria. These promising findings highlight the utility of this species for future work. With the very limited availability of suitable long-lived and cross-datable species on the Australian mainland, these results have significant implications for advancing high-resolution palaeoclimate science in southeastern Australia and for improving our understanding of past climate in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Gambling has traditionally been conceptualised as an issue of addiction and personal responsibility. While there are now clear public health models that recognise that gambling harm is caused by a range of socio-cultural, environmental, commercial and political determinants, government and industry messages about gambling are still largely personal responsibility focused. Given the well-recognised issues associated with personal responsibility paradigms, this study sought to understand how gamblers themselves conceptualised responsibility for gambling harm. Methods: A qualitatively led online panel survey was conducted with 363 adult gamblers in New South Wales and Victoria, Australia. Participants were asked to respond to what they thought were the causes of gambling harm, and what could be done to prevent harm. A reflexive thematic analysis was conducted. Results: Six common tropes were constructed from gamblers' responses: (1) Gambling in moderation; (2) Personal responsibility for rational behaviour; (3) Character flaws; (4) Personal responsibility to seek help; (5) More education is needed; and (6) Governments are responsible for action – but motivation and efficacy are questioned. Gamblers primarily understood gambling harm as being a matter of personal responsibility, and government responsibility was generally seen as limited to providing information to facilitate informed gambling choices. Conclusions: This study demonstrates that gamblers' perceptions of gambling harm are similar to the personal responsibility framings and tropes present in industry and government messaging strategies. Refocusing public communication strategies away from 'responsible gambling' messaging, and towards evidence-based approaches, will be an important part of addressing the harms associated with gambling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Passive surveillance is the principal method of sexually transmitted infection (STI) and blood-borne virus (BBV) surveillance in Australia whereby positive cases of select STIs and BBVs are notified to the state and territory health departments. A major limitation of passive surveillance is that it only collects information on positive cases and notifications are heavily dependent on testing patterns. Denominator testing data are important in the interpretation of notifications. Objective: The aim of this study is to establish a national pathology laboratory surveillance system, part of a larger national sentinel surveillance system called ACCESS (the Australian Collaboration for Coordinated Enhanced Sentinel Surveillance). ACCESS is designed to utilize denominator testing data to understand trends in case reporting and monitor the uptake and outcomes of testing for STIs and BBVs. Methods: ACCESS involves a range of clinical sites and pathology laboratories, each with a separate method of recruitment, data extraction, and data processing. This paper includes pathology laboratory sites only. First established in 2007 for chlamydia only, ACCESS expanded in 2012 to capture all diagnostic and clinical monitoring tests for STIs and BBVs, initially from pathology laboratories in New South Wales and Victoria, Australia, to at least one public and one private pathology laboratory in all Australian states and territories in 2016. The pathology laboratory sentinel surveillance system incorporates a longitudinal cohort design whereby all diagnostic and clinical monitoring tests for STIs and BBVs are collated from participating pathology laboratories in a line-listed format. An anonymous, unique identifier will be created to link patient data within and between participating pathology laboratory databases and to clinical services databases. Using electronically extracted, line-listed data, several indicators for each STI and BBV can be calculated, including the number of tests, unique number of individuals tested and retested, test yield, positivity, and incidence. Results: To date, over 20 million STI and BBV laboratory test records have been extracted for analysis for surveillance monitoring nationally. Recruitment of laboratories is ongoing to ensure appropriate coverage for each state and territory; reporting of indicators will occur in 2019 with publication to follow. Conclusions: The ACCESS pathology laboratory sentinel surveillance network is a unique surveillance system that collects data on diagnostic testing, management, and care for and of STIs and BBVs. It complements the ACCESS clinical network and enhances Australia's capacity to respond to STIs and BBVs. International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID): DERR1-10.2196/13625 We help JMIR researchers to raise funds to pursue their research and development aimed at tackling important health and technology challenges. If you would like to show your support for this author, please donate using the button below. The funds raised will directly benefit the corresponding author of this article (minus 8% admin fees). Your donations will help this author to continue publishing open access papers in JMIR journals. Donations of over $100 may also be acknowledged in future publications. Suggested contribution levels: $20/$50/$100 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Australian local governments undertake a range of activities that can contribute to a healthy, sustainable, and equitable food system. However, their engagement in food system governance is highly uneven, and only a handful have developed dedicated food system policies. This article reports on case studies of food system policy development and implementation in six local governments in the states of New South Wales and Victoria. The main motivators for policy and program development were to improve environmental sustainability, reduce food waste, improve diet-related health and food security, and support local, sustainable agriculture. Key steps included consulting with the community, identifying local food-related issues, and developing policy solutions. Local government activities targeted many dimensions of the food system, and policy implementation processes included hiring dedicated food system employees, creating partnerships with organizations outside local government, advocacy to higher levels of government for policy and legislative change, and program evaluation. The research also identified key enablers of and barriers to policy development and implementation, including factors internal to local government (e.g., presence/absence of local champions, highlevel leadership, and a supportive internal culture) as well as important state- and federal-level constraints, including absence of comprehensive policy frameworks for food and nutrition, of dedicated funding for local government food system work, and of leadership for food system governance from higher levels of government. The authors conclude with recommendations for strengthening the role of Australian local governments in creating a healthy, sustainable, and equitable food system, applicable to both local governments and to Australian state and federal governments. These recommendations may also be useful to local governments in other national jurisdictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Novel genetic accessions of Eucalyptus polybractea from a previously untested, hotter and drier part of the species' natural range were tested in a common garden trial at a semi-arid site in NSW, Australia. Eucalyptus polybractea is a mallee eucalypt cultivated for essential oils (1,8-cineole), bioenergy and carbon sequestration on dryland sites in southern Australia (sites receiving about 450 mm mean annual rainfall, MAR). A trial of six previously untested provenances from the relatively hot, dry part of the species' natural range in South Australia (SA) (250–450 mm MAR) was established alongside seven provenances from New South Wales (NSW) and Victoria within a commercial plantation in NSW. The trial was assessed at age 3.7 years for growth and oil characteristics. While survival was excellent, most of the SA sources were slower growing and of sub-standard oil concentration and quality relative to those from Victoria and NSW. However, a single SA provenance, with the highest oil concentration and 1,8-cineole percentage of all provenances tested, may have potential as a source of selected germplasm. Infusion of SA material into the breeding populations of E. polybractea, which are currently based on NSW and Victorian selections only, may provide more resilience in the face of hotter and drier temperatures expected under projected climate change scenarios, and/or allow the introduction of the species to hotter and drier climates in Australia or other parts of the world with semi-arid climates. However, high-intensity selection of infusions will be required to maintain the growth and oil characteristics in the existing breeding population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since bail legislation was enacted in the 1970s, Australia has experienced a continual increase in the number of prisoners on remand. Amendments to bail legislation and police discretion have been shown to contribute to this increase. Further, an accused's vulnerability affects whether they are granted or denied bail, with vulnerable people being more likely to be denied bail. Vulnerability in the criminal justice system refers to factors such as race, age, sex and socioeconomic status. Many vulnerable people have multiple intersecting vulnerabilities, which further compounds their contact with the justice system. This study employed a qualitative content analysis of bail legislation for the Australian states of New South Wales (NSW), Tasmania, and Victoria, along with key correlating second reading speeches. The aim was to better understand the way in which bail decision-makers, such as police, consider vulnerability when making decisions about bail, in particular, if and how they are legislated to consider factors relating to vulnerability. The research found that only police in NSW and Victoria were required to consider an accused's vulnerability explicitly under the law. Although legislation may cater for varying vulnerabilities, intersecting vulnerabilities are not considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regional flood frequency analysis (RFFA) is widely used to estimate design floods in ungauged catchments. Both linear and non-linear methods are adopted in RFFA. The development of the non-linear RFFA method Adaptive Neuro-fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) using data from 181 gauged catchments in south-eastern Australia is presented in this study. Three different types of ANFIS models, Fuzzy C-mean (FCM), Subtractive Clustering (SC), and Grid Partitioning (GP) were adopted, and the results were compared with the Quantile Regression Technique (QRT). It was found that FCM performs better (with relative error (RE) values in the range of 38–60%) than the SC (RE of 44–69%) and GP (RE of 42–78%) models. The FCM performs better for smaller to medium ARIs (2 to 20 years) (ARI of five years having the best performance), and in New South Wales, over Victoria. In many aspects, the QRT and FCM models perform very similarly. These developed RFFA models can be used in south-eastern Australia to derive more accurate flood quantiles. The developed method can easily be adapted to other parts of Australia and other countries. The results of this study will assist in updating the Australian Rainfall Runoff (national guide)-recommended RFFA technique. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Partnership between local government and local health districts is imperative, given their overlapping goals. However, the need for further evidence-informed actions to address health inequities remains. The effectiveness of such partnerships requires better insight into how local governments perceive partnerships with local health districts, and how well equipped and prepared they are to deal with the health equity opportunities and challenges. It was precisely for these reasons that a qualitative study was conducted by South Western Sydney Local Health District (SWSLHD) in 2016.Objective: This study aims to better understand how to improve the effectiveness of collaboration between local governments and the public health sector.Methods: Qualitative data were collected from 14 in-depth interviews with staff representing five of the local councils comprising SWSLHD. These data were then thematically analysed using inductive and deductive reasoning through the application of NVivo software.Results: While councils recognize the potential value of consulting SWSLHD, limited communication and the absence of a clearly defined process for collaboration needs to be addressed. Moreover, councils perceive knowledge gaps in relation to basic issues, such as who provides what services to whom, and how to access local-government-level data from health experts.Conclusions: The study confirms the importance of providing locally relevant public health data to help address issues of mutual concern that arise during the consultation process. Moreover, it suggests that proactive and ongoing consultation between SWSLHD and councils is critical if there is to be effective engagement, and coordinated and sustained action. The concerns raised in this study echo findings from studies from other local government settings of Victoria, South Australia and New South Wales. Thus, the study findings may be applied to other councils beyond the SWSLHD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article summarises developments in the Australian economy in 2021. The recovery that was underway from the COVID‐19 recession was interrupted by the second wave of the pandemic and the associated policy responses, particularly in Victoria and New South Wales. We discuss the challenges facing the Australian economy as it once again re‐opens. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The diversity of lagoviruses (Caliciviridae) in Australia has increased considerably in recent years. By the end of 2017, five variants from three viral genotypes were present in populations of Australian rabbits, while prior to 2014 only two variants were known. To understand the evolutionary interactions among these lagovirus variants, we monitored their geographical distribution and relative incidence over time in a continental-scale competition study. Within 3 years of the incursion of rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus 2 (RHDV2, denoted genotype GI.1bP-GI.2 [polymerase genotype]P-[capsid genotype]) into Australia, two novel recombinant lagovirus variants emerged: RHDV2-4e (genotype GI.4eP-GI.2) in New South Wales and RHDV2-4c (genotype GI.4cP-GI.2) in Victoria. Although both novel recombinants contain non-structural genes related to those from benign, rabbit-specific, enterotropic viruses, these variants were recovered from the livers of both rabbits and hares that had died acutely. This suggests that the determinants of host and tissue tropism for lagoviruses are associated with the structural genes, and that tropism is intricately connected with pathogenicity. Phylogenetic analyses demonstrated that the RHDV2-4c recombinant emerged independently on multiple occasions, with five distinct lineages observed. Both the new RHDV2-4e and -4c recombinant variants replaced the previous dominant parental RHDV2 (genotype GI.1bP-GI.2) in their respective geographical areas, despite sharing an identical or near-identical (i.e. single amino acid change) VP60 major capsid protein with the parental virus. This suggests that the observed replacement by these recombinants was not driven by antigenic variation in VP60, implicating the non-structural genes as key drivers of epidemiological fitness. Molecular clock estimates place the RHDV2-4e recombination event in early to mid-2015, while the five RHDV2-4c recombination events occurred from late 2015 through to early 2017. The emergence of at least six viable recombinant variants within a 2-year period highlights the high frequency of these events, detectable only through intensive surveillance, and demonstrates the importance of recombination in lagovirus evolution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The alpine she-oak skink Cyclodomorphus praealtus is a threatened alpine endemic lizard from the mainland of Australia. The species is previously known from disjunct populations in Kosciuszko National Park in New South Wales and three isolated localities in the Victorian Alps. The New South Wales and Victorian populations represent separate evolutionarily significant units. In 2011, a fourth Victorian population was discovered. We conducted a phylogenetic analysis and determined that the newly discovered population is discrete and may have been separated from other populations since the end of the last glacial maxima. This population requires separate management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has the potential to have a major impact on flora and fauna across Australia. There is a need to investigate the potential impact of climate change at a subspecies level to inform effective conservation management. To date, there have been no studies that have considered the effects of climate change on the distribution and habitat of the Brush-tailed Phascogale Phascogale tapoatafa tapoatafa. In this research, the potential changes to the phascogale climatic envelope were modelled to simulate low emissions (RCP2.6) and high emissions (RCP8.5) scenarios for 2075. Six bioclimatic parameters were selected, based on their likelihood of influencing phascogale occupancy. Modelling was conducted separately on two groupings of phascogale that occur in central Victoria and from northern New South Wales to southern Queensland. Of the selected parameters, the maximum temperature of the hottest month was found to have the greatest influence over phascogale distribution. The high emission scenario for 2075 suggests that climatically suitable phascogale habitat would contract by 79% in Queensland, 67% in Victoria and 17% in New South Wales. Suitable habitat would also increase in some areas with large expansions in New South Wales. Habitat connectivity will be essential for allowing phascogales to move through the landscape to reach areas where climate may be most suitable under warming. These projections do not take into account the increase in bushfires and other natural disasters that could exacerbate the effects of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2004, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) controversially issued a black box warning that antidepressants were associated with an increased risk of suicidal thoughts and behaviours in people aged under 18 years. In 2007, the warning was expanded to include young adults aged under 25 years. In 2005, the Australian Therapeutic Goods Administration responded to the FDA warning by requiring Product and Consumer Information leaflets to be updated to reflect the risk. However, there was considerable debate, and at times emotive backlash, in academic journals and the international media. Prominent US and Australian mental health organisations and psychiatrists challenged the FDA warning. They argued that, on balance, antidepressant use was likely to reduce the risk of suicide. Several ecological studies were cited misleadingly as evidence that decreasing antidepressant use increases suicide risk. From 2008 to 2018, Australian per-capita child, adolescent and young adult antidepressant dispensing (0–27 years of age) and suicide (0–24 years) rates have increased approximately 66% and 49%, respectively. In addition, there was a 98% increase in intentional poisonings among 5 to 19 year-olds in New South Wales and Victoria between 2006 and 2016, with substantial overlap between the most commonly dispensed psychotropics and the drugs most commonly used in self-poisoning. These results do not support claims that increased antidepressant use reduces youth suicide risk. They are more consistent with the FDA warning and the hypothesis that antidepressant use increases the risk of suicide and self-harm by young people. Causal relationships cannot be established with certainty until there is a vast improvement in post-marketing surveillance. However, there is clear evidence that more young Australians are taking antidepressants, and more young Australians are killing themselves and self-harming, often by intentionally overdosing on the very substances that are supposed to help them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dynamical downscaling of future projections of global climate model outputs can provide useful information about plausible and possible changes to water resource availability, for which there is increasing demand in regional water resource planning processes. By explicitly modelling climate processes within and across global climate model grid cells for a region, dynamical downscaling can provide higher-resolution hydroclimate projections and independent (from historical time series), physically plausible future rainfall time series for hydrological modelling applications. However, since rainfall is not typically constrained to observations by these methods, there is often a need for bias correction before use in hydrological modelling. Many bias-correction methods (such as scaling, empirical and distributional mapping) have been proposed in the literature, but methods that treat daily amounts only (and not sequencing) can result in residual biases in certain rainfall characteristics, which flow through to biases and problems with subsequently modelled runoff. We apply quantile–quantile mapping to rainfall dynamically downscaled by the NSW and ACT Regional Climate Modelling (NARCliM) Project in the state of Victoria, Australia, and examine the effect of this on (i) biases both before and after bias correction in different rainfall metrics, (ii) change signals in metrics in comparison to the bias and (iii) the effect of bias correction on wet–wet and dry–dry transition probabilities. After bias correction, persistence of wet states is under-correlated (i.e. more random than observations), and this results in a significant bias (underestimation) of runoff using hydrological models calibrated on historical data. A novel representation of quantile–quantile mapping is developed based on lag-one transition probabilities of dry and wet states, and we use this to explain residual biases in transition probabilities. Representing quantile–quantile mapping in this way demonstrates that any quantile mapping bias-correction method is unable to correct the underestimation of autocorrelation of rainfall sequencing, which suggests that new methods are needed to properly bias-correct dynamical downscaling rainfall outputs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analysis of observational data to pinpoint impact of land cover change on local rainfall is difficult due to multiple environmental factors that cannot be strictly controlled. In this study we use a statistical approach to identify the relationship between removal of tree cover and rainfall with data from best available sources for two large areas in Australia. Gridded rainfall data between 1979 and 2015 was used for the areas, while large scale (exogenous) effects were represented by mean rainfall across a much larger area and climatic indicators, such as Southern Oscillation Index and Indian Ocean Dipole. Both generalised additive modelling and step trend tests were used for the analysis. For a region in south central Queensland, the reported change in tree clearing between 2002-2005 did not result in strong statistically significant precipitation changes. On the other hand, results from a bushfire affected region on the border of New South Wales and Victoria suggest significant changes in the rainfall due to changes in tree cover. This indicates the method works better when an abrupt change in the data can be clearly identified. The results from the step trend test also mainly identified a positive relationship between the tree cover and the rainfall at p < 0:1 at the NSW/Victoria region. High rainfall variability and possible regrowth could have impacted the results in the Queensland region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the effect of the trade weighted index (TWI) return on the volatility of Australian Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). This study also contributes to the existing literature by measuring the impact of the macroeconomics and fundamental factors on the real estate market for three major states in Australia including New South Wales, Victoria, and Queensland. Using monthly house and unit prices and covering the period from 2009 to 2016, this research uses both fixed and random effect panel data models and the vector autoregressive (VAR) model. The findings of the study suggest that the movement of the TWI has positive and statistically significant impact on Australian REITs suggesting the real estate investors expect risk premium on exchange rate factor. The results also purport that both house and unit prices in Australia are exposed to the fluctuations of the fundamental risk factors. Rental yield, a return component, has a positive relationship with the real estate market in New South Wales and Queensland. The findings of the study provide significant insight to the investors in their portfolio formation since they have the understanding of the priced risk factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Family-focused practice (FFP) is an effective approach to supporting individuals with mental illness. 'Recovery' is also central to contemporary mental health care. However, there is a dearth of evidence about how the two concepts are related and subsequently implemented in practice. The aim of this study was to explore practitioners' understandings and practices of FFP within a recovery framework.Methods: Purposive/snowball sampling was used to recruit and conduct qualitative interviews with 11 mental health practitioners in rural Australia. Concurrent sampling and data collection were informed by thematic analysis and continued until data saturation was reached.Results: Participants found it difficult to articulate their understandings of FFP within a recovery framework. Nonetheless they were able to describe practices that embodied family-focused recovery. Barriers to such practices included medical models of care, where there are often a shortage of skilled staff and high demands for care. Stigma (self and from others) and confidentiality were also identified as barriers to involving family members in recovery focused care.Conclusions: Family-focused recovery care is a priority in many high-income countries. A family-focused recovery framework is needed to assist service planners, practitioners, family members and those with mental health needs and ensure such care is embedded within practice guidelines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The Safety Attitudes Questionnaire (SAQ) is commonly used to assess staff perception of safety climate within their clinical environment. The psychometric properties of the SAQ have previously been explored with confirmatory factor analysis and found to have some issues with construct validity. This study aimed to extend the psychometric evaluations of the SAQ by using Rasch analysis.Methods: Assessment of internal construct validity included overall fit to the Rasch model (unidimensionality), response formats, targeting, differential item functioning (DIF) and person-separation index (PSI).Results: A total of 420 nurses completed the SAQ (response rate 60 %). Data showed overall fit to a Rasch model of expected item functioning for interval scale measurement. The questionnaire demonstrated unidimensionality confirming the appropriateness of summing the items in each domain. Score reliabilities were appropriate (internal consistency PSI 0.6-0.8). However, participants were not using the response options on the SAQ in a consistent manner. All domains demonstrated suboptimal targeting and showed compromised score precision towards higher levels of safety climate (substantial ceiling effects).Conclusion: There was general support for the reliability of the SAQ as a measure of safety climate although it may not be able to detect small but clinically important changes in safety climate within an organisation. Further refinement of the SAQ is warranted. This may involve changing the response options and including new items to improve the overall targeting of the scale.Trial Registration: This study was registered with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry, number ACTRN12611000332921 (21 March 2011). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article compares the real GDP per capita of the Cape Colony and Natal between 1861 and 1909 with that of Australia's two most developed colonies, Victoria and New South Wales. Estimates of European and non- European GDP per capita for both South African colonies are also provided. Together, this information allows for the first time an evaluation of the growth performance of these important parts of the South African economy in the colonial era. The article concludes that South African performance in this period was stronger than often assumed and that by the beginning of the twentieth century European South Africans, now more fully integrated into a British World economy, operated at a level of GDP per capita that matched and in some places may have exceeded that of Australians. Non- European South Africans, however, did not share in these same advances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Involvement in a compensation process following a motor vehicle collision is consistently associated with worse health status but the reasons underlying this are unclear. Some compensation systems are hypothesised to be more stressful than others. In particular, fault-based compensation systems are considered to be more adversarial than no-fault systems and associated with poorer recovery. This study compares the perceived fairness and recovery of claimants in the fault-based compensation system in New South Wales (NSW) to the no-fault system in Victoria, Australia.Methods: One hundred eighty two participants were recruited via claims databases of the compensation system regulators in Victoria and NSW. Participants were > 18 years old and involved in a transport injury compensation process. The crash occurred 12 months (n = 95) or 24 months ago (n = 87). Perceived fairness about the compensation process was measured by items derived from a validated organisational justice questionnaire. Health outcome was measured by the initial question of the Short Form Health Survey.Results: In Victoria, 84 % of the participants considered the claims process fair, compared to 46 % of NSW participants (χ(2) = 28.54; p < .001). Lawyer involvement and medical assessments were significantly associated with poorer perceived fairness. Overall perceived fairness was positively associated with health outcome after adjusting for demographic and injury variables (Adjusted Odds Ratio = 2.8, 95 % CI = 1.4 - 5.7, p = .004).Conclusion: The study shows large differences in perceived fairness between two different compensation systems and an association between fairness and health. These findings are politically important because compensation processes are designed to improve recovery. Lower perceived fairness in NSW may have been caused by potential adversarial aspects of the scheme, such as liability assessment, medical assessments, dealing with a third party for-profit insurance agency, or financial insecurity due to lump sum payments at settlement. This study should encourage an evidence informed discussion about how to reduce anti-therapeutic aspects in the compensation process in order to improve the injured person's health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: It is estimated that up to 50 % of motor vehicle crash survivors develop significant psychological distress, such as depressive mood and anxiety, within 6 months of the crash. Associated impacts include loss of employment, delayed return to work, financial and familial stress, and increased medical and compensation costs. The major aim of this research is to investigate the efficacy of interventions for preventing the development of psychological distress following a motor vehicle crash. The efficacy of two brief interventions will be examined: a cognitive behaviour therapy (CBT) programme, targeting mood and anxiety, and a lifestyle programme, targeting sleep, diet and physical activity.Methods/design: This is a randomized, controlled multisite study. Participants include at least 180 adults injured in a motor vehicle crash who have entered a compensation process. Research will compare outcomes in three groups randomly assigned to: one group of 60 adults, who receive a brief email-delivered CBT programme, with one session every 2 weeks for 10 weeks and telephone contact every 2 weeks; a second group of 60 adults, who receive a brief email-delivered lifestyle intervention involving one session every 2 weeks for 10 weeks with telephone contact; and an active waiting-list control group of 60 adults who are provided claims processing-related reading material along with telephone contact every 2 weeks for 10 weeks. Participants will be recruited within 12 weeks of the motor vehicle crash, and will be comprehensively assessed before and after treatment, and 6 and 12 months post-injury. Assuming an α probability level of 0.05 and a power of 80 %, at least 180 participants will be recruited. The primary outcome measure is the presence and severity of psychological distress or disorder. Secondary outcome measures include assessment of self-efficacy, resilience employment status, social activity and support, lifestyle and physical health factors, along with process outcome measures of treatment acceptability, feasibility and generalizability.Discussion: This study will determine whether brief email-delivered interventions distributed soon after the injury and entry into the claims process can be effective in preventing the development of psychological distress.Trial Registration: ANZCTR, ACTRN12615000326594 . Registered on 9 April 2015. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Schools provide opportunities for parents and the wider community to connect and support the physical and emotional wellbeing of their children. Schools therefore have the potential to play a role in the socialisation of alcohol use through school policies and practices regarding consumption of alcohol by adults at school events in the presence of children.Methods: This survey was undertaken to a) compare the extent to which alcohol is used at secondary school events, when children are present, in the states of New South Wales (NSW) and Victoria (VIC), Australia; b) describe principals' level of agreement with these practices; c) their awareness of state policies on this issue; and d) the predictors of such events. A random sample of secondary schools, stratified to represent metropolitan and non-metropolitan schools were invited to participate. Bivariate and multivariate analysis were conducted with p values < 0.05 considered significant.Results: A total of 241 (43%) schools consented to participate in the study. Fifteen percent of participating NSW schools and 57% of VIC schools held at least one event in which alcohol was consumed by adults in the presence of children in the year before the survey. Of the 100 reported events, 78% were Year 12 graduation dinners, and 18% were debutante balls. Compared to NSW principals, VIC principals were significantly more likely to agree with the use of alcohol at these events; significantly less likely to be aware of their state education department policy on this issue; have a policy at their own school or support policy that prohibits alcohol use at such events; and less likely to report having enough information to make decisions about this.Conclusions: There is a growing focus on adults' use of alcohol at school events when children are present. Schools can play an important role in educating and socialising children about alcohol via both the curriculum and policies regarding adults' alcohol use at school events. Findings from this study suggest education department and school-based policies that prohibit or restrict the use of alcohol, are significant predictors of adults' alcohol use at school events when children are present. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The prevalence and impact of musculoskeletal conditions are predicted to rapidly escalate in the coming decades. Effective strategies are required to minimise 'evidence-practice', 'burden-policy' and 'burden-service' gaps and optimise health system responsiveness for sustainable, best-practice healthcare. One mechanism by which evidence can be translated into practice and policy is through Models of Care (MoCs), which provide a blueprint for health services planning and delivery. While evidence supports the effectiveness of musculoskeletal MoCs for improving health outcomes and system efficiencies, no standardised national approach to evaluation in terms of their 'readiness' for implementation and 'success' after implementation, is yet available. Further, the value assigned to MoCs by end users is uncertain. This qualitative study aimed to explore end users' views on the relevance of musculoskeletal MoCs to their work and value of a standardised evaluation approach.Methods: A cross-sectional qualitative study was undertaken. Subject matter experts (SMEs) with health, policy and administration and consumer backgrounds were drawn from three Australian states. A semi-structured interview schedule was developed and piloted to explore perceptions about musculoskeletal MoCs including: i) aspects important to their work (or life, for consumers) ii) usefulness of standardised evaluation frameworks to judge 'readiness' and 'success' and iii) challenges associated with standardised evaluation. Verbatim transcripts were analysed by two researchers using a grounded theory approach to derive key themes.Results: Twenty-seven SMEs (n = 19; 70.4 % female) including five (18.5 %) consumers participated in the study. MoCs were perceived as critical for influencing and initiating changes to best-practice healthcare planning and delivery and providing practical guidance on how to implement and evaluate services. A 'readiness' evaluation framework assessing whether critical components across the health system had been considered prior to implementation was strongly supported, while 'success' was perceived as an already familiar evaluation concept. Perceived challenges associated with standardised evaluation included identifying, defining and measuring key 'readiness' and 'success' indicators; impacts of systems and context changes; cost; meaningful stakeholder consultation and developing a widely applicable framework.Conclusions: A standardised evaluation framework that includes a strong focus on 'readiness' is important to ensure successful and sustainable implementation of musculoskeletal MoCs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous research has shown an association between children's development of psychosocial and motor skills. This study evaluated the development of these skills in 301 three-year-old deaf and hard of hearing children (M: 37.8 months) and considered a range of possible predictors including gender, birth weight, age at first fitting with hearing devices, hearing device used, presence of additional disabilities, severity of hearing loss, maternal education, socio-economic status (SES), language ability, and communication mode. Caregivers reported on children's development using the Child Development Inventory (CDI). On average, both psychosocial and motor development quotients were within the typical range for hearing children, with large individual differences. There was a positive correlation between language ability and both social and motor development, and also between social and motor development. Age at first fitting of hearing aids (as an indicator of age at identification of hearing loss), SES, degree of hearing loss, and maternal education were not significant predictors of social skill or motor development, whereas presence of additional disabilities and birth weight were. Girls performed better than boys on all but the Gross Motor subscale of the CDI. Children with hearing aids tended to perform better than those with cochlear implants on the Gross Motor subscale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The conventional Land Surface Temperature (LST)–Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) trapezoid model has been widely used to retrieve vegetation water stress. However, it has two inherent limitations: (1) its complex and computationally intensive parameterization for multi-temporal observations and (2) deficiency in canopy water content information. We tested the hypothesis that an improved water stress index could be constructed by the representation of canopy water content information to the LST–NDVI trapezoid model. Therefore, this study proposes a new index that combines three indicators associated with vegetation water stress: canopy temperature through LST, canopy water content through Surface Water Content Index (SWCI), and canopy fractional cover through NDVI in one temporally transferrable index. Firstly, a new optical space of SWCI–NDVI was conceptualized based on the linear physical relationship between shortwave infrared (SWIR) and soil moisture. Secondly, the SWCI–NDVI feature space was parameterized, and an index d(SWCI, NDVI) was computed based on the distribution of the observations in the SWCI–NDVI spectral space. Finally, standardized LST (LST/long term mean of LST) was combined to d(SWCI, NDVI) to give a new water stress index, Temperature Vegetation Water Stress Index (TVWSI). The modeled soil moisture from the Australian Water Resource Assessment—Landscape (AWRA-L) and Soil Water Fraction (SWF) from four FLUXNET sites across Victoria and New South Wales were used to evaluate TVWSI. The index TVWSI exhibited a high correlation with AWRA-L soil moisture (R2 of 0.71 with p < 0.001) and the ground-based SWF (R2 of 0.25–0.51 with p < 0.001). TVWSI predicted soil moisture more accurately with RMSE of 21.82 mm (AWRA-L) and 0.02–0.04 (SWF) compared to the RMSE ranging 28.98–36.68 mm (AWRA-L) and 0.03–0.05 (SWF) were obtained for some widely used water stress indices. The TVWSI could also be a useful input parameter for other environmental models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As energy saving becomes more and more popular, electric load forecasting has played a more and more crucial role in power management systems in the last few years. Because of the real-time characteristic of electricity and the uncertainty change of an electric load, realizing the accuracy and stability of electric load forecasting is a challenging task. Many predecessors have obtained the expected forecasting results by various methods. Considering the stability of time series prediction, a novel combined electric load forecasting, which based on extreme learning machine (ELM), recurrent neural network (RNN), and support vector machines (SVMs), was proposed. The combined model first uses three neural networks to forecast the electric load data separately considering that the single model has inevitable disadvantages, the combined model applies the multi-objective particle swarm optimization algorithm (MOPSO) to optimize the parameters. In order to verify the capacity of the proposed combined model, 1-step, 2-step, and 3-step are used to forecast the electric load data of three Australian states, including New South Wales, Queensland, and Victoria. The experimental results intuitively indicate that for these three datasets, the combined model outperforms all three individual models used for comparison, which demonstrates its superior capability in terms of accuracy and stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Poor air quality is an emerging problem in Australia primarily due to ozone pollution events and lengthening and more severe wildfire seasons. A significant deterioration in air quality was experienced in Australia's most populous cities, Melbourne and Sydney, as a result of fires during the so-called Black Summer which ran from November 2019 through to February 2020. Following this period, social, mobility and economic restrictions to curb the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic were implemented in Australia. We quantify the air quality impact of these contrasting periods in the south-eastern states of Victoria and New South Wales (NSW) using a meteorological normalisation approach. A Random Forest (RF) machine learning algorithm was used to compute baseline time series' of nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), ozone (O 3 ), carbon monoxide CO and particulate matter with diameter < 2.5 μm (PM 2.5 ), based on a 19 year, detrended training dataset. Across Victorian sites, large increases in CO (188%), PM 2.5 (322%) and ozone (22%) were observed over the RF prediction in January 2020. In NSW, smaller pollutant increases above the RF prediction were seen (CO 58%, PM 2.5 80%, ozone 19%). This can be partly explained by the RF predictions being high compared to the mean of previous months, due to high temperatures and strong wind speeds, highlighting the importance of meteorological normalisation in attributing pollution changes to specific events. From the daily observation-RF prediction differences we estimated 249.8 (95% CI: 156.6-343.) excess deaths and 3490.0 (95% CI 1325.9-5653.5) additional hospitalisations were likely as a result of PM 2.5 and O 3 exposure in Victoria and NSW. During April 2019, when COVID-19 restrictions were in place, on average NO 2 decreased by 21.5 and 8% in Victoria and NSW respectively. O 3 and PM 2.5 remained effectively unchanged in Victoria on average but increased by 20 and 24% in NSW respectively, supporting the suggestion that community mobility reduced more in Victoria than NSW. Overall the air quality change during the COVID-19 lockdown had a negligible impact on the calculated health outcomes., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)