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Disposable paper cups comprise typical single-use plastic items, as they are lined internally with a thin plastic coating for waterproofing. They are consumed at a staggering rate worldwide, with the UK alone consuming around 7 million cups daily, thus annually producing around 30,000 tonnes of paper cup waste. Contrary to popular belief, less than 1 in 400 paper cups is currently recycled in the UK, which is in stark contrast to the waste hierarchy and the European Commission's ambitious Circular Economy Action Plan. Paper cups typically end up in landfill sites or even improperly disposed of, contributing to (micro)plastic waste and potentially polluting the world's oceans. The implications of the latter are not fully known yet and cannot be quantified by existing life cycle impact assessment methods. By employing the life cycle assessment methodology, UK's annual carbon footprint from paper cup consumption was found to be 75 kt of carbon dioxide equivalents, which is similar to that of manufacturing 11,500 mid-size passenger cars. Globally, their environmental footprint was found to be comparable to that of some 1.5 M average European inhabitants, indicating the nature and extent of the single-use plastics problem, which paper cups are just a typical example of. Paper cup recycling could reduce this environmental footprint by up to 40%, whereas switching to reusable cups appears to be more environmentally sustainable, achieving a threefold reduction in carbon emissions, which at global scale is more than twice Malta's annual carbon footprint. Results indicate that consumerism along with small daily choices, such as using reusable cups or bags instead of their disposable counterparts, could play a huge role in climate change. At policy level, no concrete measures to curb the superfluous consumption of paper cups, as well as of other single-use plastic items that are becoming increasingly ubiquitous, have materialised. Furthermore, it appears that decision- and policy-makers tend to step in to curtail wasteful and polluting practices only when environmental problems have started to generate widespread concern, instead of undertaking preventative policy measures. Image 1 • The environmental sustainability of disposable paper cups was examined. • 75 kt CO 2eq are emitted annually in the UK and 7.5 Mt CO 2eq globally. • Switching to reusable cups axes carbon emissions by threefold. • Robust LCIA methods should be introduced to account for (micro)plastic pollution. • Existing policy on single use plastics appears to be too little too late. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The existing body of research into the environmental and socio-economic benefits of green infrastructure supports the case for it to be positioned as a form of critical infrastructure, particularly in urban settings. It is broadly recognized that extreme weather and climate change pose significant risks to critical infrastructure systems linked to the provision of services, including electricity, water, communications, and transport, and consequently risk assessments and associated adaptation strategies are common practice. However, although green infrastructure is also at risk from extreme weather and climate change, threatening the realization of benefits that it can deliver in urban settings, associated risks to green infrastructure are not widely understood or assessed in practice. This paper discusses the status of existing research on this topic and uses this as a foundation for a Greater Manchester (UK) case study that assesses the risk of low water availability to grassed areas, which represent a key element of the city-region's green infrastructure. In doing so, the paper demonstrates how risks linked to extreme weather and climate change can be assessed spatially to inform green infrastructure planning. In summary, this paper aims to raise awareness of extreme weather and climate change risk to urban green infrastructure, present an empirical case study and associated methodological approach on this topic, and ultimately support efforts to enhance the resilience of urban green infrastructure to extreme weather and climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The U.K. food system exhibits strong unsustainability indicators across multiple dimensions, both in terms of food and nutritional insecurity and in terms of adverse climate change, biodiversity, and physical resource impacts. These indices of an unsustainable and inequitable social metabolism are the result of capitalist agriculture and society in general and, more specifically, of neoliberal and austerity policies adopted with vigour since the global financial crisis. The causal, capitalistic, and, latterly, more neoliberal bases of the U.K. food system are delineated in the first section of the paper. These bases are then detailed in terms of their impacts in exacerbating climate change, biodiversity (and resource) decline and loss, and food and nutritional insecurity. The political narratives and policy frameworks available to dissemble, mitigate, or, more rarely, to address (resolve) these impacts are then delineated. It is argued that the only policy framework available that strongly integrates food security (social equity) with ecological sustainability is political agroecology and an accompanying degrowth strategy. The final section of the paper details what political agroecology and degrowth might entail for the U.K. food system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the world embarks on a global mission to tackle climate change, reducing carbon represents a key challenge given the escalating global warming. The U.K. is among many other nations that are determined to decarbonise all sectors and strive to achieve a net zero carbon target by 2050. While much attention has been paid to improving performance and reducing carbon emissions in electrical machines, the current research landscape focuses mainly on the thermal and electromagnetic facets. Surprisingly, carbon emissions from the production stage, especially those related to raw material consumption, remain a largely unexplored area. This paper wishes to shed light on a neglected dimension by providing a comprehensive review of carbon emissions in the manufacture of electrical machines, thus contributing significantly to the wider discourse on carbon emission reduction by comparing the carbon emission values associated with various materials commonly used for the main components of these machines. A further case study is included to assess and explore the impact of material alterations on a synchronous machine, from a carbon emission perspective. A reliable material guide will provide engineers at the design stage with the critical insight needed to make informed material selection decisions, highlighting the critical role of carbon emission values beyond conventional thermal and electromagnetic considerations, achieving sustainable and environmentally conscious electrical machine design. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Exposure to heat and cold poses a serious threat to human health. In the UK, hotter summers, milder winters and an ageing population will shift how populations experience temperature-related health burdens. Estimating future burdens can provide insights on the drivers of temperature-related health effects and removing biases in temperature projections is an essential step to generating these estimates, however, the impact of various methods of correction is not well examined., Methods: We conducted a detailed health impact assessment by estimating mortality attributable to temperature at a baseline period (2007-2018) and in future decades (2030s, 2050s and 2070s). Epidemiological exposure-response relationships were derived for all England regions and UK countries, to quantify cold and heat risk, and temperature thresholds where mortality increases. UK climate projections 2018 (UKCP18)were bias-corrected using three techniques: correcting for mean bias (shift or SH), variability (bias-correction or BC) and extreme values (quantile mapping or QM). These were applied in the health impact assessment, alongside consideration of population ageing and growth to estimate future temperature-related mortality., Findings: In the absence of adaptation and assuming a high-end emissions scenario (RCP8.5), annual UK temperature-related mortality is projected to increase, with substantial differences in raw vs. calibrated projections for heat-related mortality, but smaller differences for cold-related mortality. The BC approach gave an estimated 29 deaths per 100,000 in the 2070s, compared with 50 per 100,000 using uncorrected future temperatures. We also found population ageing may exert a bigger impact on future mortality totals than the impact from future increases in temperature alone. Estimating future health burdens associated with heat and cold is an important step towards equipping decision-makers to deliver suitable care to the changing population. Correcting inherent biases in temperature projections can improve the accuracy of projected health burdens to support health protection measures and long-term resilience planning., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

In May 2019, the Climate Change Committee (CCC) recommended that the UK adopt a net-zero target, aiming to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by 100% from the 1990s baseline by 2050. The government accepted the recommendation, and the UK became the first major economy to establish a net-zero emissions law. To progress towards its climate objectives, the government took several initiatives, such as increasing its reliance on renewable energy sources and investing in climate mitigation technologies, which are commonly referred to as process eco-innovation. This study examines the impact of eco-innovation, process eco-innovation, renewable energy consumption, and economic growth on CO 2 emissions in the UK using data from 1988 to 2020. We used the ARDL bound test with an error correction model (ECM) to examine the long-run and short-run cointegration between the variables of concern. We found that eco-innovation, process eco-innovation, and renewable energy consumption have significant roles in mitigating CO 2 emissions, while economic growth contributes to environmental degradation in the UK. We also found that the effect of eco-innovation on CO 2 emissions abatement is stronger than that of process eco-innovation in the short and long-run. Our robustness tests have confirmed the accuracy of those findings. In addition, the results from the Toda-Yamamoto causality revealed a one-way causality from process eco-innovation to CO 2 , renewable energy to CO 2 , and eco-innovation to CO 2 emissions. Further, a bidirectional causality was found between GDP and CO 2 emissions. The evidence presented in this paper provides great insight for shaping the energy policy in the UK and for establishing the climate budget in line with the country's net-zero target., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Local actors have growing prominence in climate governance but key capacities and powers remain with national policymakers. Coordination between national and local climate action is therefore of increasing importance. Underappreciated in existing academic and policy literature, coordination between actors at different scales can be affected not only by politics and institutional arrangements, but also by methods of data analysis. Exploring two datasets of GHG emissions by local area in England-one of consumption-based emissions and the other of territorial emissions-this paper shows the potential for a data scaling problem known as the modifiable areal unit problem and its possible consequences for the efficacy and equity implications of climate action. While this analysis is conceptual and does not identify specific instances of the modifiable areal unit problem or its consequences, it calls attention to methods of data analysis as possible contributors to climate governance challenges. Among other areas, future analysis is needed to explore how data scaling and other aspects of data processing and analysis may affect our understanding of non-state actors' contribution to climate action., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

This study aims to examine how the climate affects the behaviour of the stock market. To achieve this, we have drawn on daily data from Jan 2005 to Jan 31, 2023 and several environmental factors (e.g., temperature, humidity, cloud cover and visibility) to account for extreme weather conditions using the 21-day moving average and its standard deviation. The empirical analysis has revealed three key findings regarding the impact of weather on the stock market's behaviour. First, various forms of extreme weather conditions consistently lead to influence stock behaviour. Second, results provide valuable insights into market behaviour and help investors to make more informed investment decisions. Third, the weather conditions have new information about the climate risk and investors should react to it swiftly in light of our findings. The saliency theory can help reconcile the theoretical conflicts between the real options and risk-shifting theories when it comes to investing in uncertain and extreme climate conditions., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

With this paper we explore and discuss the priorities of and possible goal conflicts between authenticity and climate change in heritage gardens. How can climate change mitigation, adaptation, resilience, and cultural heritage conservation be combined in heritage gardens? Our study was guided by the following research question: How do gardeners negotiate climate change and authenticity in heritage gardens? From Rachel Carson's Silent Spring in the 1960s through to the 2002 report Gardening in the Global Greenhouse and the recent Gardening in a Changing World in 2022 mankind's impact on the environment and the emerging climate change has been the focus of increasing attention. By investigating and interviewing multiple gardeners our objective was to pinpoint common challenges, as well as what can be learned from one another within the field of gardening and heritage conservation. The case study method was adopted for this study, involving three head gardeners in the United Kingdom. Interviews were conducted with Joseph Atkin at Aberglasney Gardens, Claire Greenslade at Hestercombe Gardens, and Steve Lannin at Iford Manor about their expertise and knowledge. The gardeners expressed concern regarding climate change and the challenges it poses. The interviewees shared their experience with drought, reduced use of pesticides and herbicides, and the peat legislation in relation to their role as head gardeners. We argue that authenticity and the traditional gardening practised before the advent of power tools, plastic, peat issues, and uninformed transportation can be part of the solution to loss of biodiversity and climate change. This paper identifies some of the obstacles encountered in relation to negotiating questions of authenticity and climate change in heritage gardens. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The UK is one of several countries around the world that has enacted legislation to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. Monitoring of emissions has been done through a detailed sectoral level bottom-up inventory (UK National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory, NAEI) from which national totals are submitted yearly to the United Framework Convention on Climate Change. In parallel, the UK government has funded four atmospheric monitoring stations to infer emissions through top-down methods that assimilate atmospheric observations. In this study, we present top-down emissions of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) for the UK and Ireland over the period August 2012 to August 2014. We used a hierarchical Bayesian inverse framework to infer fluxes as well as a set of covariance parameters that describe uncertainties in the system. We inferred average UK emissions of 2.08 (1.72-2.47)Tgyr-1 CH4 and 0.105 (0.087-0.127) Tgyr-1 N2O and found our derived estimates to be generally lower than the inventory. We used sectoral distributions from the NAEI to determine whether these discrepancies can be attributed to specific source sectors. Because of the distinct distributions of the two dominant CH4 emissions sectors in the UK, agriculture and waste, we found that the inventory may be overestimated in agricultural CH4 emissions. We also found that N2O fertilizer emissions from the NAEI may be overestimated and we derived a significant seasonal cycle in emissions. This seasonality is likely due to seasonality in fertilizer application and in environmental drivers such as temperature and rainfall, which are not reflected in the annual resolution inventory. Through the hierarchical Bayesian inverse framework, we quantified uncertainty covariance parameters and emphasized their importance for high-resolution emissions estimation. We inferred average model errors of approximately 20 and 0.4 ppb and correlation timescales of 1.0 (0.72-1.43) and 2.6 (1.9-3.9) days for CH4 and N2O, respectively. These errors are a combination of transport model errors as well as errors due to unresolved emissions processes in the inventory. We found the largest CH4 errors at the Tacolneston station in eastern England, which is possibly to do with sporadic emissions from landfills and offshore gas in the North Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Flood hazards present a significant risk to the UK, with homes, businesses and critical infrastructure exposed to a mixture of fluvial, surface water and coastal flooding. Climate change is expected to influence river flows, changing the frequency and magnitude of future flood events. Flood hazard assessments are used by decision-makers to implement policies and engineering interventions to reduce the impacts of these flood events. Probabilistic flood modelling can explore input and parameter uncertainties in flood models to fully quantify inundation uncertainty. However, probabilistic methods require large computational costs—limiting their application. This paper investigates a range of advanced uncertainty quantification methods (traditional Monte Carlo (FMC), Kriging and multi-fidelity Monte Carlo (MFMC)) to reduce the dichotomy between accuracy and costs. Results suggest that Kriging can reduce computational costs by 99.9% over FMC. The significantly increased efficiency has the potential to improve future policy and engineering decisions, reducing the impacts of future flood events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Pitt Review of the 2007 summer floods in the UK, published in 2008, commended the potential of natural flood management (NFM) for reducing flood risk. NFM is a nature‐based approach that has since gained substantial interest from both practitioners and academics. The review further highlighted the need for catchment‐based flood management (CBFM) to enhance resilience to flooding and climate change by incorporating NFM and wider nature‐based solutions into hard flood protection systems. Such integrated approaches are considered to be more sustainable and adaptable than the traditional hard‐engineered measures. More recently, the European Commission's European Green Deal also highlighted the need for greater use of nature‐based solutions including NFM for managing flood risk. Whilst there have been many attempts to quantify the effects of NFM through hydraulic and hydrological modelling, there is still no systematic review conducted for these modelling works. This review aims to summarise the current NFM modelling approaches, as well as discussing their key limitations related to data, model methods, and real‐world applications. This paper then goes further to highlight potential solutions to some of these challenges and provides guidance to assist modellers to improve future modelling and data collection process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

JULES-crop is a parametrisation of crops in the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES). We investigate the sources of the interannual variability in the modelled maize yield, using global runs driven by reanalysis data, with a view to understanding the impact of various approximations in the driving data and initialisation. The standard forcing dataset for JULES consists of a combination of meteorological variables describing precipitation, radiation, temperature, pressure, specific humidity and wind, at subdaily time resolution. We find that the main characteristics of the modelled yield can be reproduced with a subset of these variables and using daily forcing, with inter nal disaggregation to the model timestep. This has implications in particular for the use of the model with seasonal forcing data, which may not have been provided at subdaily resolution for all required driving variables. We also investigate the effect on annual yield of initialising the model with climatology on the sowing date. This approximation has the potential to considerably simplify the use of the model with seasonal forecasts, since obtaining observations or reanalysis output for all the initialisation variables required by JULES for the start date of the seasonal forecast would present significant practical challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Across the globe, governments are developing policies and strategies to reduce carbon emissions to address climate change. Monitoring the impact of governments' carbon reduction policies can significantly enhance our ability to combat climate change and meet emissions reduction targets. One promising area in this regard is the role of artificial intelligence (AI) in carbon reduction policy and strategy monitoring. While researchers have explored applications of AI on data from various sources, including sensors, satellites, and social media, to identify areas for carbon emissions reduction, AI applications in tracking the effect of governments' carbon reduction plans have been limited. This study presents an AI framework based on long short-term memory (LSTM) and statistical process control (SPC) for the monitoring of variations in carbon emissions, using UK annual CO2 emission (per capita) data, covering a period between 1750 and 2021. This paper used LSTM to develop a surrogate model for the UK's carbon emissions characteristics and behaviours. As observed in our experiments, LSTM has better predictive abilities than ARIMA, Exponential Smoothing and feedforward artificial neural networks (ANN) in predicting CO2 emissions on a yearly prediction horizon. Using the deviation of the recorded emission data from the surrogate process, the variations and trends in these behaviours are then analysed using SPC, specifically Shewhart individual/moving range control charts. The result shows several assignable variations between the mid-1990s and 2021, which correlate with some notable UK government commitments to lower carbon emissions within this period. The framework presented in this paper can help identify periods of significant deviations from a country's normal CO2 emissions, which can potentially result from the government's carbon reduction policies or activities that can alter the amount of CO2 emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The UK is, like its peers in the EU, just under 80% dependent on fossil fuels. This figure has come down just over 10% since the 1970s, a period when the UK had major energy-intensive industries, most of which are now gone. The government is committed to achieving net zero for the electricity sector by 2035 on the pathway to net zero for the whole economy by 2050.. The Labour opposition has set 2030 as its electricity target. Setting out the scale of this challenge, this paper demonstrates how implausible the 2035 target is. On present policies there is little prospect that the 2035 target will be met (and virtually none for the Labour 2030 target). This paper reviews the multiple current policies and the capacity objectives and explores what would have to happen to meet the target. It sets out some of the consequences of failure to deliver, and the expectation of that failure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to effectively model the potential impacts of future climate change, there is a requirement for climate data inputs which (a) are of high spatial and temporal resolution, (b) explore a range of future climate change scenarios, (c) are consistent with historical observations in the historical period, and (d) provide an exploration of climate model uncertainty. This paper presents a suite of climate projections for the United Kingdom that conform to these requirements: CHESS-SCAPE. CHESS-SCAPE is a 1 km resolution dataset containing 11 near-surface meteorological variables that can be used to as input to many different impact models. The variables are available at several time resolutions, from daily to decadal means, for the years 1980–2080. It was derived from the state-of-the art regional climate projections in the United Kingdom Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) regional climate model (RCM) 12 km ensemble, downscaled to 1 km using a combination of physical and empirical methods to account for local topographic effects. CHESS-SCAPE has four ensemble members, which were chosen to span the range of temperature and precipitation change in the UKCP18 ensemble, representing the ensemble climate model uncertainty. CHESS-SCAPE consists of projections for four emissions scenarios, given by the Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5, which were derived from the UKCP18 RCM RCP8.5 scenarios using time shifting and pattern scaling. These correspond to UK annual warming projections of between 0.9–1.9 K for RCP2.6 up to 2.8–4.3 K for RCP8.5 between 1980–2000 and 2060–2080. Little change in annual precipitation is projected, but larger changes in seasonal precipitation are seen with some scenarios projecting large increases in precipitation in the winter (up to 22 %) and large decreases in the summer (up to - 39 %). All four RCP scenarios and ensemble members are also provided with bias correction, using the CHESS-met historical gridded dataset as a baseline. With high spatial and temporal resolution, an extensive range of warming scenarios and multiple ensemble members, CHESS-SCAPE provides a comprehensive data resource for modellers of climate change impacts in the UK. The CHESS-SCAPE data are available for download from the NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis: 10.5285/8194b416cbee482b89e0dfbe17c5786c. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several factors control the vulnerability of historic geostructures to climate change. These factors are both temporally and spatially variable depending on construction techniques and climatic conditions. This paper provides a review of both the historical construction practices on the UK transport network and recent developments in the understanding of climate change effects, allowing for an assessment of the impact of climate change on existing geostructures. Geostructures in the UK can be split between pre-regulation and post-regulation construction techniques. In general, highways were constructed after the implementation of modern regulations and are therefore less vulnerable to climate change due to formalisation of construction methods. In comparison, the performance of the railway network has shown to be inferior due to historic construction practices including poor or absent compaction, lack of consideration for foundations, or selection of fill materials. Recent findings have shown that the impacts of climate change are also a multiscale problem, influenced not only by regional geology but also the pore structure of soils and its evolution. While the research into these impacts is critical, the limitations of common methods employed to survey these structures and study the behaviour of their constituent materials requires consideration. In this paper, these aspects are examined in detail in a bid to integrate holistically the complexity of the systems involved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Permaculture is a growing but little researched phenomenon emphasising care for the environment, equity, fair treatment of people and working with—and not against—nature. It thus represents a potential alternative to business as usual, capable of addressing fundamental challenges posed by human‐made climate change. The paper examines a previously ignored site of entrepreneurship by taking a practice perspective, exploring connections between the practice and growth of permaculture and institutional entrepreneurship. It assesses practice‐related and institutional factors affecting the start‐up and operation of permaculture enterprises in the United Kingdom. The study maps and surveys UK Permaculture Association members who have started up their own business and reports on qualitative data from personal interviews with twenty of them. Data analysis employs NVivo software and involves thematic analysis pertaining to the practice, institutional biographies and institutional portfolios of permaculture entrepreneurs. The findings show the importance of permaculture activists' institutional biographies and institutional portfolios to the start‐up and operation of permaculture enterprises and for shaping permaculture‐related practice. The contribution of the paper lies in how it balances attention to individual agency with subfield‐specific, organisational field and macrosocial factors in understanding 'beyond profit' entrepreneurship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this last paper in a series of four, we will enquire into key developments affecting economic growth in the near future, consider potential restructuring effects that current and future economic events could cause and survey suggestions from literature for long-term sustainability of growth trends. Discussing climate change, COVID-19 economic recovery, automation, and future growth with a view to global development, we explore where growth may take economies, and how we may foster growth in a rapidly changing international economic landscape. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We describe the approach taken to develop the United Kingdom's first community Earth system model, UKESM1. This is a joint effort involving the Met Office and the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), representing the U.K. academic community. We document our model development procedure and the subsequent U.K. submission to CMIP6, based on a traceable hierarchy of coupled physical and Earth system models. UKESM1 builds on the well‐established, world‐leading HadGEM models of the physical climate system and incorporates cutting‐edge new representations of aerosols, atmospheric chemistry, terrestrial carbon, and nitrogen cycles and an advanced model of ocean biogeochemistry. A high‐level metric of overall performance shows that both models, HadGEM3‐GC3.1 and UKESM1, perform better than most other CMIP6 models so far submitted for a broad range of variables. We point to much more extensive evaluation performed in other papers in this special issue. The merits of not using any forced climate change simulations within our model development process are discussed. First results from HadGEM3‐GC3.1 and UKESM1 include the emergent climate sensitivity (5.5 and 5.4 K, respectively) which is high relative to the current range of CMIP5 models. The role of cloud microphysics and cloud‐aerosol interactions in driving the climate sensitivity, and the systematic approach taken to understand this role, is highlighted in other papers in this special issue. We place our findings within the broader modeling landscape indicating how our understanding of key processes driving higher sensitivity in the two U.K. models seems to align with results from a number of other CMIP6 models. Plain Language Summary: The United Kingdom has taken a community approach to model development and delivery of simulations to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The papers in this special issue characterize and evaluate the U.K. models and highlight emerging properties of the models, such as the climate sensitivity. Understanding of the reasons for an increase in sensitivity in these new models is highlighted here, and similarities to our findings from other modeling centers are discussed. Key Points: The United Kingdom has developed its first community Earth system model and delivered a traceable hierarchy of models to CMIP6We applied a process‐based evaluation strategy in model development but chose not to use historic trends or measures of climate responseThe U.K. models exhibit higher climate sensitivity than seen in CMIP5 arising in part from more positive cloud feedbacks [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has highlighted the importance of thermal comfort and its health-related outcomes, particularly for the most vulnerable members of society living in social housing. Due to their vulnerable living conditions, low-income people are more exposed to negative outcomes of overheating and cold indoor temperatures in buildings. Previous studies suggest that there is a significant risk of overheating in retrofitted buildings both for the current and future weather scenarios. The UK government has introduced new building regulations to assess and limit the risk of overheating in new buildings; however, there is still a need to assess and improve conditions for existing and retrofitted properties. This study aims to evaluate the effect of retrofit strategies on thermal comfort and the risk of overheating in social housing under current and future climatic conditions. A typical case study building was simulated in DesignBuilder to assess thermal comfort conditions for upgraded building fabric to Part L of the UK building regulations and Passive House standards. The summer results were analyzed according to CIBSE TM59 while the Predicted Mean Vote index (PMV) was used for winter analysis. Findings revealed that the south-facing bedrooms are most exposed to overheating. Risk of overheating significantly increased for the future weather scenarios by up to 10 times while winter thermal comfort improved for the retrofitted scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Appropriate adaptation planning is contingent upon information about the potential future impacts of climate change, and hydrological impact assessments are of particular importance. The UKSCAPE-G2G datasets were produced, as part of the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) UK-SCAPE (UK Status, Change and Projections of the Environment) programme, to contribute to this information requirement. They use the Grid-to-Grid (G2G) national-scale hydrological model configured for both Great Britain and Northern Ireland (and the parts of the Republic of Ireland that drain to rivers in NI). Six separate datasets are provided, for two sets of driving data – one observation-based (1980–2011) and one climate-projection-based (1980–2080) – for both river flows and soil moisture on 1 km × 1 km grids across Great Britain and Northern Ireland. The river flow datasets include grids of monthly mean flow, annual maxima of daily mean flow, and annual minima of 7 d mean flow (m 3 s -1). The soil moisture datasets are grids of monthly mean soil moisture content (m water / m soil), which should be interpreted as depth-integrated values for the whole soil column. The climate-projection-based datasets are produced using data from the 12-member 12 km regional climate model ensemble of the latest UK climate projections (UKCP18), which uses RCP8.5 emissions. The production of the datasets is described, along with details of the file format and how the data should be used. Example maps are provided, as well as simple UK-wide analyses of the various outputs. These suggest potential future decreases in summer flows, annual minimum 7 d flows, and summer/autumn soil moisture, along with possible future increases in winter flows and annual maximum flows. References are given for published papers providing more detailed spatial analyses, and some further potential uses of the data are suggested. The datasets are listed in Table 1. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The research project discussed in this paper is driven by the United Kingdom's (UK's) need to reduce operational energy and carbon by promoting the adoption of the Active Building (AB) concept for UK building projects. The AB concept offers a practical solution to reducing the operational energy use and carbon emissions of buildings by using emerging technologies applied to architectural design; thus, helping the UK meet its decarbonisation targets and, consequently, helping to combat the global problem of climate change. The aim of the project was to design and implement an AB Protocol with an AB Toolkit, to provide a knowledge base and sustainable architectural design guidance to aid the design of ABs. The AB Toolkit was tested, evaluated, and refined by engaging with architectural designers in the UK through focus groups (FGs) that combined data collection with knowledge dissemination—a method which provided a contribution to the continuous professional development (CPD) of architectural designers in the UK, while aiding the research project. The FG data proved the original hypothesis that a whole host of measures are needed to support the adoption of the AB concept (as outlined in the AB Protocol), but that some design guidance was needed initially to enable the development of other supporting measures. Therefore, the main output of this research project was the development of a structured approach to enable architectural designers and other built-environment professionals to adopt the AB concept for the delivery of net zero operational energy buildings, supporting the aims of the SPECIFIC Innovation and Knowledge Centre, Swansea University, and the Active Building Centre (ABC). The method of data collection developed, and the structured approach to enabling the adoption of a new concept outlined, could be beneficial to other researchers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents an analysis of the temporary variation of the area-orientated annual maximum daily rainfall (AMDR) with respect to the three spatial properties: location, size and shape of the region-of-interest (ROI) in Great Britain and Australia using two century-long datasets. The Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian Markov-Chain-Monte-Carlo methods are employed to quantify the time-varying frequency of AMDR, where a large proportion of the ROIs shows a non-decreasing level of most frequent AMDR. While the most frequent AMDR values generally decrease with larger-sized ROIs, their temporal variation that can be attributed to the climate change impact does not show the same dependency on the size. Climate change impact on ROI-orientated extreme rainfall is seen higher for rounded shapes although the ROI shape is not as significant as the other two spatial properties. Comparison of the AMDR at different return levels shows an underestimation by conventionally used stationary models in regions where a nonstationary (i.e., time-varying) model is preferred. The findings suggest an overhaul of the current storm design procedure in view of the impact of not only climate change but also spatial variation in natural processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The Global Coupled 3 (GC3) configuration of the Met Office Unified Model is presented. Among other applications, GC3 is the basis of the United Kingdom's submission to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6). This paper documents the model components that make up the configuration (although the scientific descriptions of these components are in companion papers) and details the coupling between them. The performance of GC3 is assessed in terms of mean biases and variability in long climate simulations using present‐day forcing. The suitability of the configuration for predictability on shorter time scales (weather and seasonal forecasting) is also briefly discussed. The performance of GC3 is compared against GC2, the previous Met Office coupled model configuration, and against an older configuration (HadGEM2‐AO) which was the submission to CMIP5. In many respects, the performance of GC3 is comparable with GC2, however, there is a notable improvement in the Southern Ocean warm sea surface temperature bias which has been reduced by 75%, and there are improvements in cloud amount and some aspects of tropical variability. Relative to HadGEM2‐AO, many aspects of the present‐day climate are improved in GC3 including tropospheric and stratospheric temperature structure, most aspects of tropical and extratropical variability and top‐of‐atmosphere and surface fluxes. A number of outstanding errors are identified including a residual asymmetric sea surface temperature bias (cool northern hemisphere, warm Southern Ocean), an overly strong global hydrological cycle and insufficient European blocking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The complexity and uncertainty of climate change pose unique challenges to the development of corporate adaptation strategies. Climate adaptation requires organizations to rely on sensemaking to understand climate events, implications for their operations, and develop a response. Organizational heuristics can support sensemaking by simplifying decisions and reducing cognitive effort but also hinder it by creating bias and errors that lead to inefficient decisions. This paper analyzes how firms use organizational heuristics when making decisions on climate change by empirically investigating the adaptation responses of key infrastructure providers in the United Kingdom. Looking at selection, prioritization, procedural, and temporal heuristics, we examine how firms make sense of climate events and develop their responses accordingly. The analysis shows that while these rules‐of‐thumb are sensible in some instances, they can create biases, too, that may deflect responsibility or create a false sense of security leading to inefficient adaptation decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reports on a quantitative study of prioritisation of biodiversity amongst small‐ to medium‐sized enterprise (SME) leaders. Existing research indicates that value orientation impacts propensity for pro‐environmental behaviours. However, as biodiversity loss remains inadequately addressed, this study employs the value‐belief‐norm framework to explore how leaders with strong biospheric and altruistic (collectively termed 'bigger‐than‐self') value orientations perceive their responsibility for biodiversity loss in comparison with climate change and, using an adaptation of the Global Reporting Initiative standards, how biodiversity is prioritised against other areas of environmental sustainability in their businesses. Surveying 61 SME leaders, primarily in the South‐West UK, it was found that biodiversity is often considered of low priority compared with factors such as energy, waste, materials and emissions. Analysis also indicates that these leaders feel less responsibility for biodiversity than for climate change demonstrating that, even where bigger‐than‐self values dominate, there is a need for higher prioritisation of biodiversity amongst SMEs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent extreme weather events have had severe impacts on UK crop yields, and so there is concern that a greater frequency of extremes could affect crop production in a changing climate. Here we investigate the impacts of future climate change on wheat, the most widely grown cereal crop globally, in a temperate country with currently favourable wheat-growing conditions. Historically, following the plateau of UK wheat yields since the 1990s, we find there has been a recent significant increase in wheat yield volatility, which is only partially explained by seasonal metrics of temperature and precipitation across key wheat growth stages (foundation, construction and production). We find climate impacts on wheat yields are strongest in years with compound weather extremes across multiple growth stages (e.g. frost and heavy rainfall). To assess how these conditions might evolve in the future, we analyse the latest 2.2 km UK Climate Projections (UKCP Local): on average, the foundation growth stage (broadly 1 October to 9 April) is likely to become warmer and wetter, while the construction (10 April to 10 June) and production (11 June to 26 July) stages are likely to become warmer and slightly drier. Statistical wheat yield projections, obtained by driving the regression model with UKCP Local simulations of precipitation and temperature for the UK's three main wheat-growing regions, indicate continued growth of crop yields in the coming decades. Significantly warmer projected winter night temperatures offset the negative impacts of increasing rainfall during the foundation stage, while warmer day temperatures and drier conditions are generally beneficial to yields in the production stage. This work suggests that on average, at the regional scale, climate change is likely to have more positive impacts on UK wheat yields than previously considered. Against this background of positive change, however, our work illustrates that wheat farming in the UK is likely to move outside of the climatic envelope that it has previously experienced, increasing the risk of unseen weather conditions such as intense local thunderstorms or prolonged droughts, which are beyond the scope of this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Maximising resource‐use efficiency, productivity and environmental sustainability are all fundamental requirements to raise global food production by ~70 per cent in order to feed a world population of ~9.7 billion people by 2050. Perhaps the most vital resource within our capacity to achieve this goal is our soil. Broadly, the fundamental question concerns whether or not satisfying this production demand will accelerate soil degradation, climate change, and the loss of soil carbon stocks. This paper builds upon the outputs of the UK Charity 'Food & Farming Futures' (chaired by Lord Curry of Kirkharle) virtual workshop held on 23 March 2021, entitled 'Capturing the Potential of Soil'. The event focussed on the link between soil health, primarily soil organic carbon (SOC), and agricultural productivity. Supported with commentaries by Professor Pete Smith (University of Aberdeen and Science Director of the Scottish Climate Change Centre of Expertise) and Professor Steve McGrath (Head of Sustainable Agricultural Sciences at Rothamsted Research), specific focus will be given to the research challenges within the UK's ability to improve soil health and functionality, the implementation priorities that must be held in order to improve soil management by 2050 and what the potential co‐benefits could be. These co‐benefits were scattered across environmental, economic, social and political issues, yet they may be summarised into six primary co‐benefits: developing natural capital, climate change mitigation, carbon trading, improvements in crop yield, animal performance and human health (nutrition). Additionally, the main barriers to improved soil management practices are centred on knowledge exchange‐regarding agri‐environmental techniques—whilst the most impactful solutions rely on soil monitoring, reporting and verification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rising temperatures exacerbated by climate change are a growing concern in the UK. This paper assesses the state of heat risk governance in the country through an analysis of the Adverse Weather and Health Plan (AWHP) launched in 2023, which replaces the former Heatwave Plan (HWP) for England — the prominent policy for addressing heatwaves in the UK. Through 17 semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders, the paper assesses the perceived effectiveness of the new plan in addressing heat risk. The findings demonstrate that AWHP has been positively received and is considered to have well-functioning institutional arrangements and strategies tailored to manage immediate heat risks. However, areas for improvement are identified: the need to enhance public communication and broaden the cross-sectoral understanding of heat impacts beyond the domain of 'health'. Further, the research reveals gaps in leadership, institutional structure, delineation of roles and responsibilities, and funding and resources for addressing long-term heat risk and preparedness in the UK. The paper explores these and highlights the need for strengthening governance and capacity to tackle the multi-dimensional climate risk, i.e., heat, effectively. • UK heat policy lacks consideration for long-term risks. • Understanding heat impacts beyond health is crucial for effective risk mitigation. • Establishing an institutional structure with clear leadership is essential. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Do 'green' environmental concerns – such as about biodiversity, climate change, pollution – deter citizens from having children? This paper reports the first longitudinal evidence consistent with that increasingly discussed hypothesis. It follows through time a random sample of thousands of initially childless men and women in the UK. The paper shows that those individuals who are committed to a green lifestyle are found to be substantially less likely to go on later to have offspring. Probit and Weibull survival models are estimated. The results are robust to controlling for people's age, education, income, marital status, mental health, life satisfaction, optimism, and physical health. The paper's key estimated effect-size is substantial. A person entirely unconcerned about environmental behaviour is estimated to be just over 50% more likely to go on to have a child than a deeply committed environmentalist. • Will fertility decline because humans become so concerned about environmental damage? • Using UK data on thousands of randomly selected young adults, we provide the first longitudinal evidence that those who have environmental concerns and act in a 'green' way go on to have fewer children. • The estimated effect-size is large. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Government policies during the COVID-19 pandemic have drastically altered patterns of energy demand around the world. Many international borders have been closed and populations have been confined to their homes, which has reduced transport and changed consumption patterns. A decrease in CO2 emissions and pollution has thus been recorded during forced confinements. This has offered a glimpse of how the world might look like with a drastic reduction of human impact. The present paper explores how facts are framed in news discourse and investigates the recontextualization of the environmental issue in news media. The study analyses a collection of news articles about the consequences of coronavirus on the environment published on the websites of the major news channels in the UK, namely BBC News and Sky News. This CDA investigation studies how the UK news outlets re-mediated scientific knowledge about climate change to emphasise or minimise the positive consequences of confinement on the planet. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, there has been a risen interest in heat recovery systems for building applications due to concerns about the energy crisis and global climate change. In this paper, the intention to understand the performance of a window thermoelectric heat pump/heat recovery system (Ecopump) for heating has been developed. An overview to the prototype design, heat transfer model, experimental parameters and environmental feasibility is discussed. The variation of MATLAB modelling results followed the same regularity as the experimental results. The MATLAB model along with Revit has been used to simulate the Ecopump's performance when installed in a sustainable house in the UK. From the calculation, Ecopump can provide 670 kWh heating energy and reduce 90.6 kg CO2 emissions per year. The proposed Ecopump system combined with window frame could be a promising technology to enhance space heating for domestic buildings while reducing energy consumption during daily ventilation. Further in situ experiments should be conducted to explore its comprehensive performance in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and its consequences are the most important issues affecting the UK economy over the coming century and will present a critical challenge for the UK government moving forward. In particular, the challenge of getting to net zero by 2050 is going to have major ramifications for the macroeconomy. In this commentary, I lay out some of the work that has been done on the implications of climate change and the transition to net zero for the macroeconomy. Economic activity as currently structured involves using fossil fuels as part of the production process. But this releases carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and leads to higher temperatures. I take this as given, simply noting that if this rise in temperature and the change in weather patterns associated with it are going to be stopped, if not reversed, at some point in the future, then we have to move to a 'net zero' (or even 'net negative') economy in which output is produced using only those inputs which do not produce greenhouse gases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the spatial variation of area‐orientated annual maximum daily rainfall (AMDR), represented by well‐fitted generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions, over the last century in Great Britain (GB) and Australia (AU) with respect to three spatial properties: geographic locations, sizes, and shapes of the region‐of‐interest (ROI). The results show that the spatial variation of GEV location‐scale parameters is dominated by geographic locations and area sizes. In GB, there is an eastward‐decreasing banded pattern compared with a concentrically increasing pattern from the middle to coasts in AU. The parameters tend to decrease with increased area sizes in both studied regions. Although the impact of the ROI shapes is insignificant, the round‐shaped regions usually have higher‐valued parameters than the elongated ones. These findings provide a new perspective to understand the heterogeneity of extreme rainfall distribution over space driven by the complex interactions between climate, geographical features, and the practical sampling approaches. Key Points: Rainfall series are extracted and processed from more than 11,000 regions of interest over the last 100 years in Great Britain and Australia.Spatial distribution of extreme rainfall modeled qualitatively and quantitatively shows impact from location, size, and shape of regions.Methods and findings provide new perspectives for understanding the heterogeneous nature of climate variability and climatic change impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to effectively model the potential impacts of future climate change, there is a requirement for climate data inputs which are a) high spatial and temporal resolution; b) explore a range of future climate change scenarios; c) are consistent with historical observations in the historical period; and d) provide an exploration of climate model uncertainty. This paper presents a suite of climate projections for the United Kingdom that conform to these requirements: CHESS-SCAPE. CHESS-SCAPE is a 1 km resolution dataset containing eleven near-surface meteorological variables that can be used to as input to many different impacts models. The variables are available at several time resolutions, from daily to decadal means, for the years 1980-2080. It was derived from the state-of the art regional climate projections in the United Kingdom Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) Regional Climate Model (RCM) UKCP18 12 km ensemble, downscaled to 1 km using a combination of physical and empirical methods to account for local topographic effects. CHESS-SCAPE has four ensemble members, which were chosen to span the range of temperature and precipitation change in the UKCP18 ensemble, representing the ensemble climate model uncertainty. CHESS-SCAPE consists of projections for four emissions scenarios, given by the Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5, which were derived from the UKCP18 RCM RCP8.5 scenarios using time shifting and pattern scaling. These correspond to UK annual warming projections of between 0.9-1.9 K for RCP2.6 up to 2.8-4.3 K for RCP8.5 between 1980-2000 and 2060-2080. Little change in annual precipitation is projected, but larger changes in seasonal precipitation are seen with some scenarios projecting large increases in precipitation in the winter (up to 22 %) and large decreases in the summer (up to -39 %). All four RCP scenarios and ensemble members are also provided with bias-correction, using the CHESS-met historical gridded dataset as a baseline. With high spatial and temporal resolution, extensive range of warming scenarios and multiple ensemble members, CHESS-SCAPE provides a comprehensive data resource for modellers of climate change impacts in the UK. The CHESS-SCAPE data are available for download from the NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis: http://dx.doi.org/10.5285/8194b416cbee482b89e0dfbe17c5786c (Robinson et al., 2022). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Natural flood management (NFM) measures seek to protect, enhance, emulate, or restore the natural function of rivers as part of approaches to flood risk management (FRM). While there is agreement in both academic and practice/policy literature that NFM, in a general sense, should be part of a holistic FRM strategy to address current and future flood risk, the specifics of how to consistently implement NFM successfully in practice are less well known. This is particularly acute for practitioners in the UK given the nature of the UK's biophysical and socio-political context. There is a recognition that existing reviews of NFM effectiveness in the UK tend to focus on the natural science basis and it is unclear how studies account for climate change. Further, reviews tend to focus only on UK studies. This systematic map aims to highlight the way in which existing NFM studies, from different disciplinary backgrounds and across Europe, evaluate effectiveness, and the extent to which they account for climate change. This knowledge can help to make recommendations for future areas of research where the multiple issues around understanding effectiveness can be synthesised, and where climate change is systematically taken into account. Methods: This systematic map protocol addresses the following question: what approaches exist to evaluate the effectiveness of UK-relevant natural flood management measures? The protocol details the methodology that will be used to conduct a systematic map of the range of peer-reviewed journal papers, policy documents, guidance, and other forms of grey literature which currently exist on NFM to give an overview on the way in which the effectiveness of NFM is conceived. The methods detail the search strategy employed for gathering items across the peer-reviewed academic literature and grey literature. Additionally, the methods outline how the reviewers will approach article screening, and the eligibility criteria to include/exclude articles. The methods section also details the steps taken to ensure consistency across all reviewers, the data coding strategy, and methods for presenting the final systematic map. Together, the methods employed will help to identify current knowledge gaps, and will enable recommendations to be made for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the impact that climate change may have on the lodging of oats in the Republic of Ireland and the UK. Through the consideration of a novel lodging model representing the motion of an oat plant due to the interaction of wind and rain and integrating future predictions of wind and rainfall due to climate change, appropriate conclusions have been made. In order to provide meteorological data for the lodging model, wind and rainfall inputs are analysed using 30 years' time series corresponding to peak lodging months (June and July) from 38 meteorological stations in the United Kingdom and the Irish Republic, which enables the relevant probability density functions (PDFs) to be established. Moreover, climate data for the next six decades in the British Isles produced by UK climate change projections (UKCP18) are analysed, and future wind and rainfall PDFs are obtained. It is observed that the predicted changes likely to occur during the key growing period (June to July) in the next 30 years are in keeping with variations, which can occur due to different husbandry treatments/plant varieties. In addition, the utility of a double exponential function for representing the rainfall probability has been observed with appropriate values for the constants given. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ontocetus is one of the most notable extinct odobenines owing to its global distribution in the Northern Hemisphere. Originating in the Late Miocene of the western North Pacific, this lineage quickly spread to the Atlantic Ocean during the Pliocene, with notable occurrences in England, Belgium, The Netherlands, Morocco and the eastern seaboard of the United States. Reassessment of a pair of mandibles from the Lower Pleistocene of Norwich (United Kingdom) and a mandible from the Upper Pliocene of Antwerp (Belgium) that were referred to as Ontocetus emmonsi reveals existences of features of both Ontocetus and Odobenus. The presence of four post-canine teeth, a lower canine larger than the cheek-teeth and a lower incisor confirms the assignment to Ontocetus; simultaneously, characteristics such as a fused and short mandibular symphysis, a well-curved mandibular arch and thin septa between teeth align with traits usually found in Odobenus. Based on a combination of these characters, we describe Ontocetus posti, sp. nov. Its mandibular anatomy suggests, a better adaptation to suction-feeding than what was previously described in the genus suggesting that Ontocetus posti sp. nov. likely occupied a similar ecological niche to the extant walrus Odobenus rosmarus. Originating from the North Pacific Ocean, Ontocetus most likely dispersed via the Central American Seaway. Although initially discovered in the Lower Pliocene deposits of the western North Atlantic, Ontocetus also left its imprint in the North Sea basin and Moroccan Plio-Pleistocene deposits. The closure of the Isthmus of Panama during the Mio-Pliocene boundary significantly impacted the contemporary climate, inducing global cooling. This event constrained Ontocetus posti in the North Sea basin leaving the taxon unable to endure the abrupt climate changes of the Early Pleistocene, ultimately going extinct before the arrival of the extant counterpart, Odobenus rosmarus. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Classical statistical methods for flood frequency estimation assume stationarity in the gauged data. However, recent focus on climate change and, within UK hydrology, severe floods in 2009 and 2015 has raised the profile of statistical analyses that include trends. This paper considers how parameter estimates for the generalised logistic distribution vary through time in the UK. The UK Benchmark Network (UKBN2) is used to allow focus on climate change separate from the effects of land-use change. We focus on the sensitivity of parameter estimates to adding data, through fixed-width moving window and fixed-start extending window approaches, and on whether parameter trends are more prominent in specific geographical regions. Under stationary assumptions, the addition of new data tends to further the convergence of parameters to some final value. However, addition of a single data point can vastly change non-stationary parameter estimates. Little spatial correlation is seen in the magnitude of trends in peak flow data, potentially due to the spatial clustering of catchments in the UKBN2. In many places, the ratio between the 50-year and 100-year flood is decreasing, whereas the ratio between the 2-year and 30-year flood is increasing, presenting as a flattening of the flood frequency curve. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes the result of a project to develop climate adaptation design strategies funded by the UK's Technology Strategy Board. The aim of the project was to look at the threats and opportunities presented by industrialized and house-building techniques in the light of predicted future increases in flooding and overheating due to anthropogenic climate change. The paper shows that the thermal performance of houses built to the current UK Building Regulations is not adequate to cope with changing weather patterns, and in light of this, develops a detailed design for a new house: one that is industrially produced and climatically resilient, but affordable. This detailed concept IDEAhaus of a modular house is not only flood-proof to a water depth of 750 mm, but also is designed to utilize passive cooling, which dramatically reduces the amount of overheating, both now and in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The saltmarsh carbon storage potential is a key topic in blue carbon research and climate policy. Ecosystem service valuations provide valuable information to policymakers for habitat management and climate change mitigation policies. Yet, only few saltmarsh valuation studies have included the carbon storage service in the UK context. This paper investigates how the public values saltmarsh ecosystem services, focussing on the carbon storage service. We used a choice experiment to elicit the willingness to pay (WTP) of a representative sample of the Scottish public to support interventions that would maintain or improve the provision of these services. Furthermore, we tested the effect of information on individuals' preferences and WTP with a split sample approach where one group received a treatment in the form of additional information. We found that (i) all attributes had a significant influence on individuals' choices; (ii) both groups had, on average, a positive marginal WTP for all presented ecosystem services; (iii) the treated sample had, on average, no significantly different marginal WTP for carbon storage than the control group. This paper adds to the limited literature on the saltmarsh carbon storage ecosystem service and demonstrates a developed nation's public's openness to nature-based climate change mitigation solutions. [Display omitted] • The Scottish public on average prefers saltmarsh management over the status quo. • Providing additional information reduced heterogeneity in WTP for carbon storage. • Most respondents preferred an improvement of all saltmarsh ecosystem services. • Therefore management should focus on both climate change mitigation and adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Overheating regulations and calculation methods in 26 European countries were compared. • Most of the existing calculation methods are outdated and do not fit climate-proof buildings. • France requires a mixed-mode operation of naturally ventilated households. • The UK developed a heatwave-based calculation approach. • Comfort-based, multi-zonal, and time-integrated calculation approaches are needed. With the ongoing significance of overheating calculations in the residential building sector, building codes such as the European Energy Performance of Building Directive (EPBD) are essential for harmonizing the indicators and performance thresholds. This paper investigates Europe's overheating calculation methods, indicators, and thresholds and evaluates their ability to address climate change and heat events. e study aims to identify the suitability of existing overheating calculation methods and propose recommendations for the EPBD. The study results provide a cross-sectional overview of twenty-six European countries. The most influential overheating calculation criteria are listed the best approaches are ranked. The paper provides a thorough comparative assessment and recommendations to align current calculations with climate-sensitive metrics. The results suggest a framework and key performance indicators that are comfort-based, multi-zonal, and time-integrated to calculate overheating and modify the EU's next building energy efficiency regulations. The results can help policymakers and building professionals to develop the next overheating calculation framework and approach for the future development of climate-proof and resilient residential buildings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: As part of their annual directors' report, UK‐listed companies are now required to disclose their greenhouse gas emissions and account publicly for their contributions to climate change. This paper uses this mandatory carbon reporting to explore wider debates about corporate social responsibility and the purpose, practice, and impacts of such non‐financial reporting. Empirically, it combines documentary analysis of the carbon reporting practices of 176 large firms listed in the FTSE100 and/or subject to the UK government's adaptation reporting power with 60 interviews with stakeholders involved in carbon reporting. Firms disclose their emissions in response to financial incentives, social pressure and/or regulatory compulsion. In turn, rationales shape whether and how carbon reporting influences internal business processes and performance. The importance of reporting to the bottom line varies by sector depending on two variables – energy intensity and economic regulator status – yet there is limited evidence that carbon reporting is driving substantial reductions in emissions. Findings suggest reasons for caution about hopes for ‘nudging’ firms to improve their environmental performance and social responsibility through disclosure requirements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the face of a changing climate, a growing number of construction firms are adopting carbon reduction targets on individual projects and across their portfolios. In the wake of the Paris Agreement, some firms are seeking a means of aligning their targets with sectoral, national and international mitigation commitments. There are numerous ways by which such an alignment can be achieved, each requiring different assumptions. Using data from the UK construction industry, this paper reviews current company commitments and progress in carbon mitigation; analyses the unique challenges in aligning construction targets, and presents a series of possible sectoral decarbonisation trajectories. The results highlight the disparity between current company targets and the range of possible trajectories. It is clear that a cross-industry dialogue is urgently required to establish an appropriate response that delivers both a widely-accepted target trajectory and a plan for its delivery. This paper is intended to stimulate and support this necessary debate by illustrating the impact of different methodological assumptions and highlighting the critical features of an appropriate response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A network of three tall tower measurement stations was set up in 2012 across the United Kingdom to expand measurements made at the long-term background northern hemispheric site, Mace Head, Ireland. Reliable and precise in situ greenhouse gas (GHG) analysis systems were developed and deployed at three sites in the UK with automated instrumentation measuring a suite of GHGs. The UK Deriving Emissions linked to Climate Change (UK DECC) network uses tall (165-230m) open-lattice telecommunications towers, which provide a convenient platform for boundary layer trace gas sampling. In this paper we describe the automated measurement system and first results from the UK DECC network for CO2, CH4, N2O, SF6, CO and H2. CO2 and CH4 are measured at all of the UK DECC sites by cavity ring-down spectroscopy (CRDS) with multiple inlet heights at two of the three tall tower sites to assess for boundary layer stratification. The short-term precisions (1s on 1 min means) of CRDS measurements at background mole fractions for January 2012 to September 2015 is < 0.05 µmol mol-1 for CO2 and < 0.3 nmol mol-1 for CH4. Repeatability of standard injections (1s) is < 0.03 µmol mol-1 for CO2 and <0.3nmolmol-1 for CH4 for the same time period. N2O and SF6 are measured at three of the sites, and CO and H2 measurements are made at two of the sites, from a single inlet height using gas chromatography (GC) with an electron capture detector (ECD), flame ionisation detector (FID) or reduction gas analyser (RGA). Repeatability of individual injections (1s) on GC and RGA instruments between January 2012 and September 2015 for CH4, N2O, SF6, CO and H2 measurements were < 2.8 nmol mol-1, < 0.4 nmol mol-1, < 0.07 pmol mol-1, < 2 nmol mol-1 and < 3 nmol mol-1, respectively. Instrumentation in the network is fully automated and includes sensors for measuring a variety of instrumental parameters such as flow, pressures, and sampling temperatures. Automated alerts are generated and emailed to site operators when instrumental parameters are not within defined set ranges. Automated instrument shutdowns occur for critical errors such as carrier gas flow rate deviations. Results from the network give good spatial and temporal coverage of atmospheric mixing ratios within the UK since early 2012. Results also show that all measured GHGs are increasing in mole fraction over the selected reporting period and, except for SF6, exhibit a seasonal trend. CO2 and CH4 also show strong diurnal cycles, with night-time maxima and daytime minima in mole fractions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is widely acknowledged that the climate is warming globally and within the UK. In this paper, studies which assess the direct impact of current increased temperatures and heat-waves on health and those which project future health impacts of heat under different climate change scenarios in the UK are reviewed.This review finds that all UK studies demonstrate an increase in heat-related mortality occurring at temperatures above threshold values, with respiratory deaths being more sensitive to heat than deaths from cardiovascular disease (although the burden from cardiovascular deaths is greater in absolute terms). The relationship between heat and other health outcomes such as hospital admissions, myocardial infarctions and birth outcomes is less consistent. We highlight the main populations who are vulnerable to heat. Within the UK, these are older populations, those with certain co-morbidities and those living in Greater London, the South East and Eastern regions.In all assessments of heat-related impacts using different climate change scenarios, deaths are expected to increase due to hotter temperatures, with some studies demonstrating that an increase in the elderly population will also amplify burdens. However, key gaps in knowledge are found in relation to how urbanisation and population adaptation to heat will affect health impacts, and in relation to current and future strategies for effective, sustainable and equitable adaptation to heat. These and other key gaps in knowledge, both in terms of research needs and knowledge required to make sound public- health policy, are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Probabilistic projections from the UK Climate Projections 2018 are presented for four global warming levels (GWLs) at 1.5, 2, 3, and 4°C above the 1850–1900 baseline. Our results show how uncertainties associated with climate models and four representative concentration pathways (RCP) emission scenarios translate to UK regional scale changes in maximum temperature and precipitation, with data also available for minimum and mean temperatures, humidity and surface net downward shortwave radiation flux. We compare weighting the likelihood of RCPs based on (hypothetical) policy decisions, against our baseline assumption that each RCP is equally likely. Differences between weighted and unweighted GWL distributions are small, particularly in relation to the full breadth of uncertainties that are incorporated into the probabilistic projections. Finally we quantify the relative importance of scenario, model and internal variability on regional projected GWLs and show that uncertainty associated with an uncertain climate response to forcings dominates at all GWLs. Plain Language Summary: Global warming levels define the global averaged increase in temperature since the pre‐industrial period. This study looks at what the regional climate in the UK could be like in the future. We estimate how temperature and precipitation in the UK might change under four different global warming levels (GWLs) (1.5, 2, 3, and 4°C above pre‐industrial times). We account for a wide range of outcomes from both climate models and future emissions scenarios. Assuming that the range of future emissions scenarios are equally likely, the center of the ranges of years that we could reach GWLs of 1.5, 2, 3, and 4°C are 2032, 2050, 2072, and 2078 respectively. The largest influence of future climate on these range estimates comes from our understanding of how the Earth actually responds to changes in greenhouse gases. Even if we knew the exact quantity of greenhouse gas emissions we would emit in the future, we still wouldn't be able to predict the exact changes in UK climate with perfect accuracy because our understanding of the regional climate response to these emissions requires further investigation. Key Points: Probabilistic climate projections from the UK are presented for four global warming levels (GWLs) across four representative concentration pathways (RCP)We show how uncertainty associated with climate models and future emission scenarios translate to UK regional scale changesUncertainty associated with an uncertain climate response to forcings dominates at all GWLs [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An event-based approach has been used to explore the potential effects of climate change on the spatial and temporal coherence of widespread flood events in Great Britain. Time series of daily mean river flow were generated using a gridded national-scale hydrological model (Grid-to-Grid) driven by a 12-member ensemble of regional climate projections from UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18), for 30-year baseline (1980–2010) and future (2050–2080) time slices. From these, sets of widespread extreme events were extracted. The question of what defines a "widespread flood event" is discussed; here it was defined as an event exceeding an at-site 99.5th percentile (equivalent to 2 d per year) simultaneously over an area of at least 20 km 2 , with a maximum duration of 14 d. This resulted in a set of 14 400 widespread events: approximately 20 events per year, per ensemble member, per time slice. Overall, results have shown that events are more temporally concentrated in winter in the future time slice compared to the baseline. Distributions of event area were similar in both time slices, but the distribution of at-site return periods showed some heavier tails in the future time slice. Such information could be useful for adaptation planning and risk management for floods under climate change, but the potential future changes have to be interpreted in the context of some differences in event characteristics between the baseline climate-projection-driven model runs and an observation-driven model run. While the focus here is Great Britain, the methods and analyses described could be applied to other regions with hydrological models and climate projections of appropriate resolution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The climate crisis is driving a rapid increase in size and number of offshore wind farms to reduce carbon emissions from electricity generation. However, there are concerns about the potential impact of offshore wind farms on the marine environment. Seabirds are considered to be at risk of being displaced from preferred foraging habitat, by construction and operation of offshore wind farms, resulting in reduced energy intake or elevated energetic costs and consequent decreases in survival and/or productivity. Typically, displacement or avoidance behaviour is assessed by comparing abundance and spatial distributions of seabirds before and after an offshore wind farm is constructed. However, seabird distributions are highly variable through time and space and so discerning a change in distribution caused by an offshore wind farm from other environmental variables can be challenging. We present a new method that controls for temporal variation by examining the location of individual seabirds relative to turbines. Mean seabird density at different distances from individual turbines (0-400m) was calculated from data collected on a total of 12 digital aerial surveys of the Beatrice Offshore Wind Farm (UK), in May-August in 2019 and 2021. Mean densities of common guillemot (Uria aalge), razorbill (Alca torda), Atlantic puffin (Fratercula arctica) and black-legged kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla), both flying and sat on the water, were calculated. If the presence of turbines had no effect on seabird distribution, there should be no relationship between distance from turbine and seabird density. This was tested by simulating a relocation of turbines, relative to seabird distribution, and recalculating seabird density over 0-400m from simulated turbine locations. This was repeated to generate a bootstrapped distribution of expected densities against which observed density was compared. If displacement was occurring, mean observed density close to turbines would be significantly lower than expected density, derived from the bootstrap distribution. Overall, observed mean density did not differ significantly from expected density, i.e. no displacement effect was detected. There was a slight tendency for guillemot and razorbill, when sat on the water, to be at higher densities than expected, near turbines, suggestive of possible attraction to turbines, and for flying birds to be at lower densities than expected, near turbines, suggestive of possible avoidance. No flying razorbills were recorded within 100m of turbines but sample sizes were small. Kittiwake tended to show no avoidance or attraction behaviour, although flying kittiwake density was slightly lower than expected at 200m from turbines. Puffins sat on the water were recorded in densities similar to the expected density. Overall, no effect of turbine rotor speed was found, i.e. birds were not more likely to be displaced/avoid turbines at higher or lower rotor speeds. The results of the turbine relocation analysis gave a more consistent and more easily interpreted assessment of displacement/avoidance behaviour than the typical approaches of comparing abundance and seabird distribution through time. We strongly encourage application of this new approach to post-construction spatial distribution data from other offshore wind farms, to build the evidence base on the effects of offshore wind farms on seabirds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]