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• A novel approach for modelling subsidence induced by fluid extraction from coal seams. • Transient groundwater and subsidence models are linked. • Coal shrinkage induced by gas desorption can significantly impact subsidence. Several coal seams are contained within the formations of Great Artesian Basin (GAB), the largest natural underground water reservoir in Australia and the world. The extraction of coal seam gas (CSG) and its associated water from thousands of wells within the coal measures of the GAB has led to tens of millimetres of subsidence in CSG development areas. Since highly developed farming systems located in these areas rely on very low slope landforms, even this scale of subsidence has caused significant community concern about the potential for CSG extraction to impair farming operations and productivity through changes in land slope and drainage. Coal seam compaction associated with dewatering and gas extraction has two key components: poromechanical compaction and desorption-induced bulk shrinkage. The former results from pore pressure depletion (due to dewatering and gas extraction) and an increase of vertical effective stress, while the latter is induced by gas desorption from the coal matrix, leading to further deformation. While poromechanical compaction of fluid-bearing formations has been extensively addressed in the literature, relatively little research has been conducted on the role of coal shrinkage in CSG-induced subsidence. This paper introduces an innovative practical modelling approach for assessing CSG-induced subsidence at a subregional/regional scale. The approach utilises an analytical model for CSG-induced subsidence derived from constitutive stress–strain relations for poroelastic-sorptive media. This is a novel approach in the context of CSG-induced subsidence which considers both poromechanical compaction and desorption-induced shrinkage. A further distinction to previous work is the integration of the geomechanical-sorptive subsidence model with a numerical groundwater model. Based on this approach, this paper examines the effect of coal shrinkage on subsidence, and its proportions with respect to total compaction for one of the major coal measures in the Surat Basin. Input data are derived from three-dimensional geological, geomechanical, and groundwater models, as well as methane adsorption and desorption reports. Results show that (a) the impact of coal shrinkage on CSG-induced subsidence is likely to be significant in the study area and (b) the contribution of coal shrinkage to CSG-induced subsidence depends on gas content, Langmuir isotherm, shrinkage strain parameters, and the saturation state of coal. This study provides important insights into CSG-induced subsidence and lays the foundation for the development of robust, efficient, and localised predictive models to support environmental impact assessment and management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Nationwide streamflow projections for Australia informed by CMIP5 and CMIP6. • Vast majority of CMIP5 and CMIP6 GCMs project less winter rainfall across Australia. • Lower winter rainfall translates to a significant reduction in annual runoff. • Modelled median projection of runoff shows a 50% reduction in far southwest Australia. • Modelled median projection of runoff shows a 20% reduction in far southeast Australia. Projections of streamflow under future climate are essential for developing adaptation strategies in the water and related sectors. This paper presents nationwide streamflow projections for Australia informed by climate change signals in CMIP6 GCMs and compares the projections with those from CMIP5 GCMs. The modelled future runoff projections driven by CMIP5 and CMIP6 GCMs are relatively similar for far southern Australia. The median projection is a 50% reduction in mean annual runoff in far southwest Australia and 20% reduction in far southeast Australia by 2046–2075 relative to 1976–2015 under the high SSP5-8.5/RCP8.5 global warming scenario. The vast majority of CMIP5 and CMIP6 GCMs project less winter rainfall across Australia. As most of the runoff in far southern Australia occurs in winter and spring, the lower winter rainfall translates to a significant reduction in annual runoff. It is therefore prudent to plan and manage for a reduction in future water resources, particularly in the densely populated and important agricultural regions in southeast Australia. There is less agreement between GCMs in the summer rainfall projection, with the CMIP6 GCMs generally projecting a wetter future (or smaller decrease in rainfall) than the CMIP5 GCMs. The modelled median projection for mean annual runoff is a 10% reduction in the south-east coast, 5% reduction in the north-east coast and little change in northern Australia. More GCMs project an increase rather than a decrease in the interannual variability of rainfall, and this would further amplify multi-year hydrological droughts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A framework to evaluate stochastic rainfall models with a quantitative scale. • 'Good' modelled rainfall does not guarantee 'good' modelled streamflow. • Streamflow-based evaluation is more holistic than rainfall-based evaluation. • Component-wise evaluation can misrepresent ultimate model performance. Stochastic rainfall models are important tools for evaluating hydrological risks such as flooding and drought because of their ability to randomly generate alternative plausible climatic timeseries. The stochastic generation of climatic timeseries is not an end in itself, since they are typically applied to a catchment to determine the performance of water-related infrastructure systems, such as reservoirs or flood-control measures. This methodology typically involves a train of models to determine the end-of-system impact, yet the evaluation of stochastically generated rainfall timeseries is usually a stand-alone procedure focused on metrics directly related to the stochastic generator. This paper demonstrates discrepancies in this approach by evaluating two, daily-timestep, stochastic rainfall models in terms of rainfall metrics and their subsequently generated flow metrics after rainfall-runoff transformation. The two models are a Markov-based model and a latent-variable model, where each model is calibrated and evaluated showing 'overall good' performance. Stochastically generated timeseries, alongside observed rainfall timeseries are inputted to a calibrated catchment model (GR4J) to derive daily flow timeseries. Whereas the rainfall metrics typically showed 'good' performance, streamflow-based metrics are not necessarily 'good'. The procedure is repeated for 277 stations from Australia and 106 stations from the United States of America. Depending on the strictness of the flow-based comparison and region analysed, using the Markov-based model 12–26% of sites were classified as 'poor' performing, and 1%-9% of sites were classified as 'poor' using the latent-variable model. The results demonstrate that catchment-based performance of flow metrics is more holistic since it magnifies features of the rainfall not otherwise visible to rainfall-based evaluation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal aquifers provide a source of water for more than one billion people, with island freshwater lenses being some of the most vulnerable coastal groundwater systems due to their susceptibility to saltwater intrusion. Basic hydrogeological and hydrochemical knowledge regarding the recharge and salinisation processes of freshwater lenses is important to ensure sustainable utilisation, especially considering possible climate change effects. This paper makes an assessment of the fate of a freshwater lens in a drying climate through a comparison of current and historic hydrochemical data, which to the author’s knowledge is unique to this study. Fresh groundwater stable isotope signatures (δ 18 O, δ 2 H) reflect local amount weighted rainfall signatures (δ 18 O: −3.8‰; δ 2 H: −15.1‰), and confirm rainfall as the origin of fresh groundwater (δ 18 O: −4.47 to −3.82‰; δ 2 H: −20.0 to −16.6‰). Mixing with seawater was identified through enriched groundwater δ 18 O and δ 2 H signatures (maximum values of −0.36‰ and −1.4‰ respectively) compared to local rainfall and higher salinity (maximum 29,267 mg/L Total Dissolved Solids (TDS)) in a number of monitoring wells around the freshwater lens. Enhanced seawater intrusion detected in the northern section of the lens area was identified through significantly increased TDS values over the last 20–40 years, with increases of up to 3000% observed between 1990 and 2014. A reduction in the extent of freshwater by approximately 1 km 2 was identified since 1977, which was found to be primarily caused by a reduction in recharge to the freshwater lens due to a ∼20% decline in winter rainfall in the south-west Western Australian region since the mid 1960s. Groundwater abstraction was found to equate to between 5% and 9% of the estimated recharge for the island, and is not a significant factor in the reduction of the lens extent compared to the observed decline in rainfall recharge. Interestingly, seawater intrusion into the fresh water lens was found to occur by older seawater (0.03–0.09 TU) in regions of the lens that were previously fresh or slightly brackish, while one sample (0.67 TU) suggests either modern seawater intrusion or mixing of older saline groundwaters (>60 years) with rainfall recharge. The use of tritium dating in this island aquifer was essential in identifying ‘older’ seawater that was previously unidentified until now. The isotopic and hydrochemical tools used in this paper quantify the effects of groundwater abstraction and climate variability on the freshwater lens and have implications for the sustainable management of the groundwater resource on Rottnest Island, and elsewhere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • Simple lumped surrogate models can emulate the behaviour of high-fidelity models. • States and simulation time is reduced by 3 and 6 orders of magnitude, respectively. • The surrogate models are robust to type of training data and sensitive to model scale. • The surrogate models can be fitted to both warning, RTC, and planning applications. • Uncertainty of surrogate models are within acceptable ranges. Abstract Distributed physically based models (DPMs) have become the standard tool for urban drainage modelling. However, high computational demands limit these in applications where fast or multiple simulations are needed. This paper presents simple fit-for-purpose cheaper-to-run surrogate models (SMs) for pipe network simulations which are validated against a DPM. The SMs are set up by lumping the DPM network into compartments in which the volume of water is governed by mass balances. Outgoing discharges to downstream compartment(s) and surcharging are computed from unambiguous volume-discharge curves. The SMs are applied on a 45 km2 catchment, Elster Creek in Melbourne, Australia. The number of simulated states and simulation times are reduced by approximately 3 and 6 orders of magnitude, respectively. Different SM complexities are examined. The simplest SM using steady state training data performed well with NSE of 0.98 for volume in the most upstream compartment. When emulating the aggregated surcharge from that compartment, the SM captured all surcharge events correctly. NSE improved from 0.35 to 0.84 when subdividing the compartment into 17 subcompartments. Uncertainty of SM parameters was examined using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology. Two different sampling methods were applied. Limits of acceptability for real-time control, warning and planning, resulted in many accepted models upstream and few to none in downstream backwater-prone areas. All applications showed SM uncertainty bands within expected uncertainty bands for DPM, supporting the use of a simpler conceptual model in fit-for-purpose modelling in urban water systems when computational demands of DPMs are prohibitive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Grassroot collective action can lead to successful groundwater co-management. • The interaction between impacting factors and collective action is dynamic. • Human and social capitals are key to successful collective action. • Collective action needs a 2-way interaction between formal and informal institutions. Resource-user participation in decision-making, through local collective action, likely contributes to effective groundwater management and protection. Despite efforts to construct generalized theoretical frameworks explaining factors influencing successful collective action in groundwater management, this is a highly complex process that remains challenging. This paper analyzes factors facilitating and impeding collective action in groundwater management, using the rare and successful collective-action example of the Angas Bremer irrigation district (South Australia). Drawing on data gathered through semi-structured interviews this paper further explores the context under which collective action arose and changed over time. The findings show a dynamic transient interaction between the following factors responsible for the rise and fall of collective action: (i) perceived crisis, (ii) small, homogenous community (iii) strong leadership from respected community members, (iv) shared norms and values, (v) shared goals, and (vi) trustworthy two-way relationship between resource users and formal institution. Although it is difficult to generalize from one case study, collective action and groundwater management are highly contextual. These findings are useful (i) for other communities with similar characteristics, (ii) to explore conditions for achieving successful groundwater governance including efficient and effective reforms, (iii) to highlight the importance of participatory management processes, (iv) to help government agencies understand what motivates communities to engage in collective action and how that leads to successful groundwater co-management, and (v) to expand on a very small body of literature documenting stakeholders narratives on collective action and groundwater management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Quantile-quantile rainfall mapping methods are extended to improve streamflow simulations. • Extensions correct rainfall bias at multiple time scales and model rainfall autocorrelation. • Methods reduce bias in rainfall sequencing metrics for downscaled GCM simulations. • Methods reduce bias in streamflow simulations forced by downscaled GCM simulations. Global circulation models (GCMs) provide important insights into future climate change. Bias-correction of downscaled GCM output is integral to any hydrological investigations of climate change due to discrepancies between the statistics of downscaled GCM simulations and observations. Many bias-correction techniques have been developed to support hydrological applications. However, there have been few comparisons of the sensitivity of hydrological simulations to different bias-correction assumptions. This paper investigates the importance of two common assumptions: (i) simultaneously correcting bias at multiple time scales, and (ii) explicitly handling rainfall autocorrelation; in quantile mapping of downscaled GCM rainfall data for hydrological simulation. Four quantile mapping methods are applied to correct bias in dynamically downscaled reanalysis and historical GCM simulations of rainfall for 11 catchments in south-eastern Australia and the performance of bias-corrected rainfall and streamflow simulations is evaluated. All quantile mapping methods investigated can effectively eliminate bias in monthly and annual rainfall totals. Quantile mapping methods that consider differences in the temporal dependence (autocorrelation) structure of downscaled GCM and observed rainfall are most effective in reducing bias in rainfall sequencing statistics, such as probability of consecutive wet or dry days. Streamflow simulations of mean and high streamflow percentiles are underestimated when generated using rainfall that is corrected using quantile mapping methods that do not consider differences in the temporal dependence structure of downscaled GCM and observed rainfall. Future hydrological investigations of climate change should therefore adopt methods that explicitly consider the temporal dependence structures of downscaled GCM and observed rainfall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Daily flow statistics (indicators) are key to understanding flow-ecology interaction. • This study examined whether monthly data can be used to describe daily flow regimes. • A suite of 173 flow indicators were converted to a monthly timestep where possible. • Around half of monthly indicators had strong correlations with their daily versions. • Using only monthly data, good predictions were achieved for 90% of daily indicators. Flow indicators based on daily flow data are commonly used to characterize the hydrologic regimes of rivers and to investigate links between flow and ecological condition. Discharge data measured at a daily timestep is considered essential for such investigations because there is an underlying premise that longer timesteps (e.g. monthly) are not suitable for capturing the variability in flow behaviour of most relevance to ecologically important processes. This paper investigates this assumption by examining the information content of daily and monthly streamflow data for a diversity of perennial, intermittent and ephemeral flow regimes across Australia, using a novel approach of comparing daily and monthly flow indicators rather than observed flow timeseries. Results show that many flow indicators derived using daily and monthly data are strongly correlated (Spearman ρ greater than 0.9). Partial least squares regression shows that the majority of daily flow indicators can be predicted using monthly flow indicators, and that as few as six monthly flow indicators can be used to estimate a wide range of daily flow characteristics, including those relating to flow magnitudes, and durations of high and low flow events. Daily indicators relating to the frequency and seasonal timing of high and low flows cannot be predicted as accurately (R2 between 0.4 and 0.9), suggesting that information on these facets of the flow regime is partially lost when aggregating to a monthly timestep. Results from this study point to the utility of monthly-based flow indicators in river ecology, opening new opportunities to overcome limitations in gauge network coverage and data resolution in many parts of the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We modify a method to assess yield of carryover reservoir with environmental flow. • The method can be applied at large scales, under historic and future climates. • We quantify yield declines due to climate change and environmental flow provision. Protecting freshwater systems to ensure sustainability requires diagnosing threats over a broad range of scales, from local to global. There is growing acceptance that environmental flows must be protected to sustain river channels and floodplain ecosystems downstream of reservoirs. Meeting environmental water requirements has proven difficult because they reduce water yield available for human use – a particular challenge in regions already experiencing declining water availability with climate change. A further challenge is the difficulty of assessing the impact of environmental water requirements on water availability for other purposes. This paper provides a modification of the Gould-Dincer method to assess the yield of carry-over reservoirs subject to environmental water requirements. The method characterizes reservoir inflows using readily available flow characteristics (annual mean and C v). We develop and test the method using ten examples with well-understood environmental water requirements and a range of annual flow C v s. We then demonstrate this method at continental scale, to investigate the impact on yield of providing high-reliability supply including environmental water requirements, under a changing climate. According to our results, considering climate change and environmental flow provision simultaneously, the decline in water yield is projected to be about 27% and 18% respectively for Australia and US (based on hypothetical reservoirs capacity of one times mean annual inflow). Adapting environmental flow demands to future hydrological conditions results in a 2% and 3% increase in Australia and US-wide yield for human use respectively. While further testing is needed, the method provides a simple and rapid way to estimate the impact of providing environmental flow on yield, applicable at global scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We demonstrate flaws in the CMRSET implementation in Bretreger et al. (2020). • Actual evapotranspiration biases were because they used an incorrect Landsat band. • The calculation of GVMI should have used Landsat SWIR1 band instead of SWIR2. • CMRSET's suitability for irrigation monitoring is demonstrated via new experiments. • CMRSET evapotranspiration using the correct SWIR1 band did not show large biases. In a recent paper published in this journal, Bretreger et al. (2020) estimate irrigation water use from satellite remotely sensed estimates of actual evapotranspiration in five irrigated districts of the Murray-Darling Basin (southeast Australia). They used three models that scale crop reference evapotranspiration with vegetation indices acquired by recent Landsat satellites: (i) IrriSAT, (ii) Kamble and (iii) CMRSET. In their paper, irrigation water use computed with CMRSET generally overestimated observed irrigation water use, sometimes fivefold. Based on these results, Bretreger et al. (2020) discouraged the use of CMRSET for irrigation monitoring. In this comment, we reproduce the experiments in Bretreger et al. (2020), and demonstrate that their overestimation was because they used an incorrect Landsat band in their implementation of CMRSET. CMRSET was originally calibrated using both MODIS-derived Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and Global Vegetation Moisture Index (GVMI). To calculate GVMI, a shortwave infrared (SWIR) band with a wavelength of ∼1.6 μm was used, which for MODIS is named SWIR2, and for Landsat is named SWIR1 (i.e., different sensors have different bands and a different number of bands and SWIR1 in MODIS has a wavelength of ∼1.2 μm). In their Landsat CMRSET implementation, Bretreger et al. (2020) computed GVMI using the Landsat SWIR2 band, which has a wavelength of ∼2.1 μm (see their Table 3). We show that CMRSET implemented with the Landsat SWIR1 band (i.e., with a wavelength of ∼1.6 μm, so being the correct Landsat band to calculate GVMI) yields similar results (both for temporal patterns and magnitude) when compared to the other two remote sensing actual evapotranspiration models in Bretreger et al. (2020). For the irrigation districts, these similar results meant that the mean water year (i.e., July to next June from 2010 to 2017) actual evapotranspiration mean absolute relative difference was 15.3% (with a 5.4%–26.5% range) and the water year irrigation water use mean absolute relative difference was 4.1% (with a 9.8%–18.9% range). Conversely, we show that a Landsat CMRSET implementation using the incorrect Landsat band for the calculation of GVMI (i.e., with a wavelength of ∼2.1 μm) led to a large overestimation agreeing with the CMRSET results reported by Bretreger et al. (2020), both for water year actual evapotranspiration (mean absolute relative difference of 64.6%, with a 51.1%–83.6% range) and irrigation water use (mean absolute relative difference of 44.1%, with a 31.4%–65.1% range). The use of the incorrect Landsat band means that the Bretreger et al. (2020) recommendation specific to their Landsat CMRSET implementation is invalid. A demonstration of Bretreger et al.'s (2020) incorrect Landsat CMRSET implementation and the correct one can be accessed at: https://jorgepena.users.earthengine.app/view/comment-on-bretreger-2020-joh-paper. Despite Bretreger et al.'s (2020) shortcomings in their implementation of the Landsat CMRSET actual evapotranspiration model, timely monitoring of irrigation water use via satellite remote sensing is required at Landsat resolutions (i.e., 30 m) or higher due to the heterogeneous nature of irrigation in most agricultural landscapes, and we applaud them for pursuing this line of research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• This paper extends the residual mass concept to propose a new method to quantify water availability. • The method automates the identification of deficit periods in the residual mass curve. • The method is validated against SPI and streamflow for Australia. Water supply management for hydroclimatic extremes has commonly been analysed using the cumulative difference between inflow and demand, a concept known as the Residual Mass Curve. This paper extends the residual mass concept to develop a new method to quantify water availability, termed the Residual Mass Severity Index (RMSI). The RMSI improves on the Residual Mass Curve by allowing extreme deficit periods to be easily identified without the need for manual inspection of the Residual Mass Curve. Another advantage of the RMSI is that it does not require a temporal window to be specified to characterise extreme deficit periods, which is needed for many drought indices such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). This paper develops the method for calculating the RMSI using precipitation time series and compares it to the SPI for different drought durations across Australia. Major hydroclimatic extremes during the instrumental period are assessed using RMSI, SPI, and by comparing the RMSI estimates with streamflow data from 467 catchments with varying sizes and climate across Australia. RMSI is a useful index for water managers interested in assessing water availability with potential applicability in summarising the features of historical hydroclimatic extremes as well as future changes in water availability due to anthropogenic climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modelling workflow for BRF-LSTM and BRF-GRU predictive models. [Display omitted] • Deep learning hybrid predictive model (BRF-LSTM) is built for streamflow forecasting. • Climate indices, rainfall and periodicity are factored for accurate predictions. • Adopts feature algorithm (i.e. Boruta) with long short-term memory and gated recurrent unit. • Six gauging sites tested; BRF-LSTM yields > 98% errors in ± 0.015 m, ~1.30% relative error. • The proposed model is useful for hydrological and strategic water resources planning. Long-term forecasting of any hydrologic phenomena is essential for strategic environmental planning, hydrologic and other forms of structural design, agriculture, and water resources management. Climate mode indices, utilising machine learning methods, are frequently considered as predictor variables in order to forecast several different hydrological variables. In this study, a feature selection algorithm based on two different deep learning models, i.e., long short-term memory and a gated recurrent unit, is applied to improve the forecasting capability of streamflow water levels at six gauging stations in the Murray Darling Basin of Australia. This paper therefore aggregates the significant antecedent lag memory of climate mode indices, rainfall, and the monthly factor based on the periodicity as the predictor variables to attain significantly accurate stream water level forecasts. This novel method identifies an improved relationship between the stream water level and climate mode indices through the aggregation of the significant lagged datasets capturing the historical features to predict the future streamflow water level. The boruta feature selection algorithm (BRF) was then applied in a two phase process before and after attaining the significant lagged inputs to screen the optimum predictor variables. The merits of the forecast models were evaluated through different performance evaluation criteria. The results show that the accumulated significant lagged inputs based on climate mode indices, along with the rainfall and periodicity factors are seen to provide improved forecasting of the SWL over the non-BRF deep learning approaches where no prior feature selection was applied. The hybrid LSTM method (i.e., BRF-LSTM model) achieved a unique advantage in terms of SWL forecasting, particularly attaining over 98% of the predictive errors lying within a band of +/-0.015 m with relatively low relative errors (RRMSE ≈1.30% and RMAE ≈ 0.882%), outperforming all of the benchmark models. It is also found that the periodicity factor has a potential influence on the accuracy of the forecast models for the four monitored study stations. This study concludes that the newly developed hybrid deep learning approaches, coupled with the BRF feature selection, provide improved forecasting performance. The hybrid approach developed in this paper can therefore be used to provide a strong provide predictive response algorithm for the hydrological variables that were influenced by the low-frequency variability of the climate model indices in respect to streamflow water level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A spatial mode-based calibration model is developed to post-process short-term forecasts of precipitation fields. • The calibration model directly embeds spatial structure into calibrated ensemble forecasts. • Calibrated ensemble forecasts are shown to be of high quality at both grid-cell and basin scales. Statistical calibration of precipitation forecasts from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is routinely performed grid-cell by grid-cell, aiming to produce accurate and reliable ensemble forecasts for precipitation fields. Calibrated ensemble members from different grid-cells are then connected using ensemble reordering to form spatially structured ensemble forecasts. However, ensemble reordering approaches, such as the well-known Schaake shuffle method, are often criticized for not considering real physical atmospheric states of precipitation events. In this paper, we propose a spatial mode-based calibration (SMoC) model for post-processing forecast precipitation fields and producing ensemble forecasts with an inbuilt spatial structure, so that ensemble reordering is not required. The SMoC model is developed based on spatial modes derived from empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analyses of precipitation fields and linear regressions of derived EOF expansion coefficients of the first few dominant modes. Unlike conventional calibration models that are applied to forecast grid-cells individually, SMoC is applied to the whole forecast fields, and the spatial structure is inherently present in calibrated ensemble forecasts. There is therefore no need to rely on ensemble reordering for spatial reconstruction. The performance of SMoC is evaluated by applying it to NWP forecasts of substantive precipitation events over the Brisbane drainage basin in eastern Australia. Cross-validated results show that SMoC calibrated forecasts are of high quality at both grid-cell and basin scales. The spatial structure of precipitation is found to be well embedded in the ensemble members of the calibrated forecasts for the basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary Design rainfall statistics are the primary inputs used to assess flood risk across river catchments. These statistics normally take the form of Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) curves that are derived from extreme value probability distributions fitted to observed daily, and sub-daily, rainfall data. The design rainfall relationships are often required for catchments where there are limited rainfall records, particularly catchments in remote areas with high topographic relief and hence some form of interpolation is required to provide estimates in these areas. This paper assesses the topographic dependence of rainfall extremes by using elevation-dependent thin plate smoothing splines to interpolate the mean annual maximum rainfall, for periods from one to seven days, across Australia. The analyses confirm the important impact of topography in explaining the spatial patterns of these extreme rainfall statistics. Continent-wide residual and cross validation statistics are used to demonstrate the 100-fold impact of elevation in relation to horizontal coordinates in explaining the spatial patterns, consistent with previous rainfall scaling studies and observational evidence. The impact of the complexity of the fitted spline surfaces, as defined by the number of knots, and the impact of applying variance stabilising transformations to the data, were also assessed. It was found that a relatively large number of 3570 knots, suitably chosen from 8619 gauge locations, was required to minimise the summary error statistics. Square root and log data transformations were found to deliver marginally superior continent-wide cross validation statistics, in comparison to applying no data transformation, but detailed assessments of residuals in complex high rainfall regions with high topographic relief showed that no data transformation gave superior performance in these regions. These results are consistent with the understanding that in areas with modest topographic relief, as for most of the Australian continent, extreme rainfall is closely aligned with elevation, but in areas with high topographic relief the impacts of topography on rainfall extremes are more complex. The interpolated extreme rainfall statistics, using no data transformation, have been used by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to produce new IDF data for the Australian continent. The comprehensive methods presented for the evaluation of gridded design rainfall statistics will be useful for similar studies, in particular the importance of balancing the need for a continentally-optimum solution that maintains sufficient definition at the local scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary One of the fundamental steps in regional rainfall frequency analysis is deciding the method by which rainfall stations are to be grouped together to form regions. This paper compares three methods of forming regions for use in estimating design rainfalls: a fixed region approach where all the available sites are included in a single region, a Region of Influence (ROI) approach based on geographical proximity and a hybrid approach where sites with similar topographic orientations are grouped together. The three region types were implemented in a Bayesian Generalized Least Squares Regression (BGLSR) framework which leads to regionalized regression equations that can be used to predict rainfall L-moments at ungauged sites. A leave-one-out cross validation approach was used to compare the relative accuracy, reliability and uncertainty of the derived rainfall statistics and resulting estimates of the rainfall quantiles. The study used data from two areas of Australia chosen for their highly varied topography and different climatic influences. It was found that all three methods provided good estimates of the L-moment statistics and the rainfall quantiles. The hybrid approach produced the smallest errors in the South-East Queensland region whilst for the Tasmanian region the fixed region approach was best. The results from this study show that although there is a slight benefit in using the proposed hybrid approach for BGLSR, these benefits were minor compared to maximizing the number of stations used to calibrate the BGLSR equations. This conclusion regarding the number of stations could be tested in future work by repeating the analyses in areas with sparser station density. Another test could be to simulate reduced station coverage in the current study areas by leaving stations out of the analyses. Finally it would be interesting to see if similar results are obtained by expanding the study area so that different climatological regimes are assessed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• An innovative framework to derive intensity-frequency-duration curves from satellite data for remote areas. • A variant of the Bartlett-Lewis model calibrated with sub-daily satellite precipitation data to disaggregate daily gauge data. • This new framework was tested for a wide range of climates in Australia. • IFD curves can be derived with reasonable accuracy for data scarce regions. Intensity-frequency-duration (IFD) curves (also known as intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves in some regions) are widely used to take into consideration the probability of occurrence of extreme precipitation for the design of water related infrastructure. Derivation of IFD curves is based on statistical analysis of observed extreme precipitation events and thus the reliability of the curves mostly depends on the record length of observations. At sub-hourly timescales however, ground-based precipitation observations are often absent or very limited in terms of spatial coverage and record length, particularly in remote areas around the world. Given the availability of satellite-derived precipitation products (SPPs) with finer spatiotemporal resolution and near-global coverage, there is great potential to use these products in the planning and design of infrastructure. This paper proposes a novel framework, SIFD (Satellite-derived IFD curves) to combine long-term daily gauge data and sub-hourly SPP to estimate IFD curves for time intervals from 0.5 to 24 h. A recent variant of the Random Parameter Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular Pulse model (RPBLRPX) was used to disaggregate daily gauge data to derive IFD curves. In the absence of sub-daily rain gauge data, the statistics required for the RPBLRPX model were obtained using the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG; 30-min, 0.1° resolution) product derived from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission. Performance of the SIFD framework was tested against gauge data from seven Australian sites across a wide range of climatologies. The disaggregation scheme coupled with the RPBLRPX model was capable of reproducing the wet-period mean intensity, wet-period standard deviation, and wet-period fraction with reasonable accuracy across the sub-daily timescales. The coefficient of determination ( r 2) values were 0.39 (mean intensity), 0.38 (standard deviation), and 0.87 (wet-period fraction) at 0.5 h timescale. Furthermore, despite some differences in methodology and record length, the IFD estimates computed using the SIFD framework were fairly close to those of the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM). The skill metrics for Sydney were the best with a bias ratio (BR) of 1.01, root mean square error (RMSE) of 13% of the mean of the BoM estimates, and a Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NSE) of 0.97. The worst case was found at Hobart (BR = 1.43, RMSE = 66%, and NSE = 0.26). Overall, the results indicate that the proposed SIFD framework could provide a viable alternative to estimate unbiased IFD curves at the sub-hourly timescale in the absence of adequate sub-hourly ground-based observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Wildfires are becoming more severe and frequent and their effects increasingly expose water resources to stress. • Climate, wildfire, streamflow records (1975 to 2018), topography, and landcover data from 92 catchments were combined to quantify the contribution of wildfire to streamflow variability across Australian temperate forests. • On average wildfire regimes relatively results in 8.8% increases in streamflow across Australian temperate forests. • Wildfire effects on regional streamflow varied spatially depending on hydroclimate factors, particularly precipitation. As wildfires become more frequent and severe, there are concerns regarding their impacts on water yield from forested catchments. While there are many studies in Australia about the effects of individual wildfires on streamflow at fine scales (<1 km2) in specific geographic settings, the effects of wildfire regimes on streamflow at broad spatial scales across temperate forests in Australia are not well understood. In this paper, we combined climate, wildfire, streamflow records (1975 to 2018), topographic, and landcover data from 92 catchments (74 – 4740 km2) in the Australian temperate zone to quantify the contribution of wildfire regimes over time to streamflow variability in different hydroclimatic settings (humid, dry sub-humid, and semi-arid) and geographic regions (Southeast Australia (SEA), Southwest Western Australia (SWWA), and Tasmania (TAS)). Wildfire regimes were represented by two metrics: the burnt area to drainage area (BDA) ratio for wildfire events in each year and a spatially averaged metric of Time Since Fire (TSF), which is a spatial average of time since the last wildfire in the catchment. By comparing prefire and postfire runoff ratios our study found that on average there was a short-term increase in runoff ratio (∼3% in year 1 and ∼6% in year 2 post-fire) after wildfires with BDA > 25%. No influence of fire was found in the long-term (15–20 years after the wildfire) runoff ratio. We found that wildfire regime, measured by TSF, explained ∼8.8% of the variation in annual streamflow across the Australian temperate zone, and that with decreasing TSF (i.e., increased wildfire impact), the average streamflow increased. Streamflow variation explained by wildfire regimes varied with hydroclimate. The explained variance of streamflow by wildfire regimes in semi-arid catchments (23%) and dry sub-humid catchments (13%) were higher than humid catchments (5%). Our results provide a broad-scale understanding of how wildfire regimes influence streamflow variability at broad temporal and spatial scales, and provided important context and baseline information for determining the implications of changes in climate and fire regimes for regional water availability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary This paper explores timescales, changing worldviews and the impact of water reform on irrigation communities in Australia whose water sharing arrangements have roots in an earlier era. Through the story of Australian irrigation it describes some subtle shifts and changes in worldviews that have influenced land and water governance reform over time. It shows how reforms can result in tangible adverse effects on communities if they overturn critical features of earlier resource sharing arrangements without consideration of unintended consequences. Where changing worldviews, reforms and the ability of communities to adapt are out of synchronisation then friction ensues, as was seen in the Murray–Darling Basin when proposed reforms have resulted in widespread disputes between reformers and irrigation communities. Failure to understand how perspectives over time have changed leads to a failure to deliver fairness in water governance reforms. If policymakers lose understanding of the rationale for earlier arrangements in land and water governance and introduce reforms that do not take these into account then adaptation to the reform and social acceptance is impeded. Seen in this way, time can be considered a competing element in fair land and water governance. Maintaining an understanding of how and why change takes place over time, and the rationale for key elements of governance developed in an earlier era, is critical for those wishing to overcome the challenges of implementation, deliver fairness, and gain community acceptance of reform. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Storage-discharge relation of groundwater was determined by a tracer-aided approach. • Dynamics of groundwater discharge in response to precipitation were assessed. • Residence time of groundwater was quantified based on storage-discharge relations. Sustainable groundwater management is becoming increasingly important due to intensifying water deficits around the world, which highlights the necessities and challenges to explore the dynamics of groundwater at the catchment-scale. In this paper, a tracer-aided approach has been developed and applied to quantify the relationships between groundwater storage and discharge, upon which the dynamics of groundwater storage and its residence time are assessed. Robust nonlinear storage-discharge relationships are found for the eight studied catchments located in a headwater region of the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia. The dynamics of groundwater storage for all the studied catchments largely show synchronization with regional climate. The estimated highest and active groundwater storages in a year are more responsive to precipitation than the lowest storages. For all the studied catchments, during dry seasons without recharge, the depletion rate of groundwater is found to decrease with the decline in groundwater storage, which can be ascribed to the vertical heterogeneity of their unconfined aquifers. The mean residence time of groundwater represented by MRT 75 (i.e. time taken for groundwater storage to diminish from its mean level to the 75th percentile) varies between 57 and 111 days across the studied catchments, suggesting considerable hydrogeological differences among the studied catchments. The groundwater dynamics observed in this research could contribute to improving hydrogeological model performance in simulating the connection between groundwater and surface water at the catchment-scale. Moreover, the findings could serve to develop guidelines for groundwater extraction when considering the constraints of environmental flow requirements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Remote sensing provides a way to monitor irrigation water use at the catchment scale. • Accurate irrigation simulations are observed over a range of catchment sizes and crop types. • Better results are seen in wetter years (water allocations above 40%). • Long term negative drought indices (SPIs), indicating dry years, shows a decrease in accuracy. Irrigated agriculture has been identified as using approximately 72% of water globally. Australia, like many places in the world, is subject to water sharing plans that cross government boarders and are subject to a mixture of management policies. There is a pressing need to develop a method to monitor irrigation water use to aid in water resource assessments and monitoring. This paper aims to test a method previously developed which monitors irrigation water use using remotely sensed observations over the catchment scale, without the need for in-situ observations, ground data or in-depth knowledge of crops and their planting dates. Using conservative assumptions about agricultural land management practice, irrigation is calculated as I r r = A E T - P. The method uses three vegetation indices derived from Landsat images to calculate crop coefficients (K c) based on multiple published relationships. These are combined through the FAO56 methodology using gridded rainfall and two reference evapotranspiration ( E T o) products to find actual evapotranspiration as A E T = E T o × K c , providing six E T o - K c combinations. Results indicate this study method can effectively assess irrigation water use over a range of catchment sizes from ~6000 to ~600,000 ha, although issues arise when regions have a designated low allocation volume for that season (less than40%). Comparisons with the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) and Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) show that the proposed method is robust to the rapid onset and short-term droughts, However, its performance was poor during the long term droughts with low water allocation years. The study results during these years has been predominately attributed to water stress in certain crops being undetected, agricultural managers skipping annual crop commodities as well as stock and domestic water use making up larger portions of total water use. This is a limitation of this approach, although when only comparing results in years with greater than 40% allocations, the results improved significantly showing it can monitor water use effectively. When adequate water is available, this approach is able to accurately predict irrigation water use for the sites examined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Event mean concentrations of water quality properties using stratified sampling. • The outlined method provides an easily implemented probabilistic approach. • Flexible for multiple water quality properties. • Estimates of key hydrograph components can be determined for each event. Short rainfall events contribute to large portions of annual sediment and nutrient exports. Most water quality sampling schemes rely on regularly spaced temporal sampling and increasingly monitoring schemes are including a form of event-based sampling. A typical approach is to sample each event using equal intervals in time using an automatic sampler. The use of this form of sampling is systematic in nature and requires model-based statistics to be analysed correctly. Probabilistic based sampling methods allow for easier and more defendable statistical inference as the assumptions are not based on a model, rather they are based on the sample design. Several probabilistic methods have been developed, however these methods commonly require additional hardware to implement. In this paper we present a method using a stratified random sampling procedure for automatic samplers which does not require any additional hardware. Our approach is to divide the mean event hydrograph into strata based on key features such as the rising and falling limbs. Random sampling is applied within each strata. A problem of this approach is that the length of the event and strata must be defined before each event. We therefore outline how the samples can be post-stratified after each event based on the key hydrological components of each event. The sampling scheme is outlined using continuously sampled electrical conductivity and turbidity data of three events from a creek in south eastern Australia. Limited to 24 samples per event, estimated event mean CIs were within the observed event means for all three events. This method provides a flexible low-cost sampling scheme providing unbiased estimates of key event hydrological components which can be easily adapted by catchment management authorities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Restoration of water quality in watersheds is a major challenge in many parts of the world. • In south-western Australia stream salinity has been reversed in a 502 km2 watershed. • This was achieved through government planning and regulation and private sector investment in reforestation. Restoration of water quality in deforested watersheds is a major environmental and economic challenge in many parts of the world. In south-western Australia water quality issues manifest as salinisation, where reactivation of groundwater systems has occurred post-deforestation with the consequent discharge of salts stored in deep regolith into rivers. Prior to deforestation the stream salinity of the Denmark River (a forested watershed of 502 km2) was between 150 and 350 mg L−1TDS (Total Dissolved Solids) and was developed as a small water supply with potential for a much larger development. By the 1970s, 20% of deep rooted vegetation in the watershed was removed resulting in annual flow-weighted stream salinity of 1500 mg L−1TDS making the river unsuitable as a water supply. Two main policy approaches were used to restore this watershed: (1) the control of further deforestation on private land through regulation; and (2) a program to encourage private reforestation with eucalypt pulp-wood plantations. By 2010, 14.5% of the watershed was reforested leaving only 5.5% still deforested, with a strong relationship between streamflow and stream salinity and the amount of reforestation. River salinity had fallen to 500 mg L−1 TDS by 2017. Although streamflow had fallen from a mean 28.6 GL yr−1 in 1985–1990 to 13.6 GL yr−1 in 2012–2017 this was with water that was potable. The challenge into the future is to ensure the lower stream salinity is maintained through maintenance of forest cover. Importantly, this paper demonstrates that stream salinity can be reversed following deforestation if an appropriate scale of reforestation is deployed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]