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This paper proposes a novel data driven framework for detecting topology transitions in a distribution network. The framework analyzes data from phasor measurement units (PMUs) and relies on the fact that changes in network topology results in changes in the structure and admittance of the network. Using voltage and current phasors recorded by PMUs, the proposed method approximates network parameters using an ensemble-based deep learning model and thus, it does not require any knowledge of network parameters and load models. Using the prediction error of the proposed model, a connectivity matrix which shows the status of switches is constructed. In contrast to other methods, this proposed framework does not require a library of voltage and current transients associated with possible network transitions. It can also detect simultaneous switching actions and is robust to noise and load variations. The model yields a lower error detection rate, and its performance is validated using a modified version of the IEEE 33 bus network and a real feeder located in Queensland, Australia, under full and partial observability conditions. The proposed model has also been compared with another data driven method in terms of inference time and error detection rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) generation forecast is critical to the reliable and economic operation of a modern power system. In practice, due to various faulty issues in the sensor, communication, or database system, the historical and online measurement data may not be always complete, and the missing data could dramatically degrade the forecasting model's accuracy. To solve this problem, this paper proposes an integrated missing-data tolerant model for probabilistic PV power generation forecasting. Taking historical PV generations as input, this model is based on a recursive long short-term memory network (Rec-LSTM), which can provide multi-step ahead forecasting of the probability distribution of PV generation. The unobserved input data will be imputed recursively based on the model output at the previous time step. During the training process, the imputations and forecasting values are iteratively updated by the negative log-likelihood loss function. As a salient advantage, this method can deal with data missing scenarios at both offline and online stages. Numerical experiments are conducted on two one-year datasets from Australia and Singapore, respectively. Probabilistic forecasting for both large-scale and small-scale building-level PV power generation is tested at the time resolution of 15 mins. Testing results show the proposed method can achieve superior probabilistic prediction accuracy as well as strong robustness under various data missing scenarios, compared to other state-of-the-art methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It can be expected that the power systems of the future will be significantly different from today’s, especially due to increasing renewable energy sources (RESs), storage systems, and price-responsive users leading to large uncertainty and complexity. The operation of these future grids (FGs) at levels of renewable energy approaching 100% will require all the usual stability analysis along with new issues in a much more complex situation than has been encountered in the past. In fact, how close we can get to this desired level will likely be dependent on the assessed stability limits. Therefore, in this study, we use a novel scenario-sensitivity-contingency based framework to evaluate the system stability along possible evolution pathways towards high renewable FGs. As a case study, we carry out our studies based on proposed future scenarios and sensitivities for the Australian FG. Using a simulation platform that encompasses market simulation, load flow calculation and stability assessment altogether, the impact of grid strength, level of prosumers, and utility storage on the stability of the FG is studied and quantified indices for long term stability have been devised. The results of this study enable us to address the underlying stability issues of the FGs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]