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Wind power has been increasing its participation in electricity markets in many countries around the world. Due to its economical and environmental benefits, wind power generation is one of the most powerful technologies to deal with global warming and climate change. However, as wind power grows, uncertainty in power supply increases due to wind intermittence. In this context, accurate wind power scenarios are needed to guide decision-making in power systems. In this paper, a novel methodology to generate realistic wind power scenarios for the long term is proposed. Unlike most of the literature that tackles this problem, this paper is focused on the generation of realistic wind power production scenarios in the long term. Moreover, spatial-temporal dependencies in multi-area markets have been considered. The results show that capturing the dependencies at the monthly level could improve the quality of scenarios at different time scales. In addition, an evaluation at different time scales is needed to select the best approach in terms of the distribution functions of the generated scenarios. To evaluate the proposed methodology, several tests have been made using real data of wind power generation for Spain, Portugal and France. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Climate Change scenario projected by the IPCC for the year 2050 predicts noticeable increases in temperature. In severe summer climates, such as the Mediterranean area, this would have very negative effects on thermal comfort in the existing housing stock, given the current high percentage of dwellings which are obsolete in energy terms and house a population at serious risk of energy poverty. The main aim of this paper is to generate a predictive model in order to assess the impact of this future climate scenario on thermal comfort conditions in an entire building category. To do so, calibrated models representing linear-type social multi-family buildings, dating from the post-war period and located in southern Spain, will be simulated extensively using transient energy analyses performed by EnergyPlus. In addition, a sensitivity analysis will be performed to identify the most influential parameters on thermal discomfort. The main results predict a generalized deterioration in indoor thermal comfort conditions due to global warming, increasing the average percentage of discomfort hours during the summer by more than 35%. This characterization of the future thermal behaviour of the residential stock in southern Spain could be a trustworthy tool for decision-making in energy retrofitting projects which are so badly needed. To do so, further work is required on some limitations of this model so that different user profiles and typologies can be represented in detail and an economic assessment can be included. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The growing concern about global climate change extends to different professional sectors. In the building industry, the energy consumption of buildings becomes a factor susceptible to change due to the direct relationship between the outside temperature and the energy needed to cool and heat the internal space. This document aims to estimate the energy consumption of a Minimum Energy Building (MEB) in different scenarios—past, present, and future—in the subtropical climate typical of seaside cities in Southern Spain. The building energy consumption has been predicted using dynamic building energy simulation software tools. Projected climate data were obtained in four time periods (Historical, the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s), based on four emission scenarios defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): B1, B2, A2, A1F1. This methodology has been mathematically complemented to obtain data in closer time frames (2025 and 2030). In addition, different mitigation strategies have been proposed to counteract the impact of climate change in the distant future. The different energy simulations carried on show clearly future trends of growth in total building energy consumption and how current building designers could be underestimating the problem of air conditioning needs in the subtropical zone. Electricity demand for heating is expected to decrease almost completely, while electricity demand for cooling increases considerably. The changes predicted are significant in all scenarios and periods, concluding an increase of between 28–51% in total primary energy consumption during the building life cycle. The proposed mitigation strategies show improvements in energy demands in a range of 11–14% and they could be considered in the initial stages of project design or incorporated in the future as the impact of climate change becomes more pronounced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]